Midseason Review Part 2

In Part 1 we covered the players and their salaries.  AS a follow-on to that the Rapids announced today that Zack Steffen has had shoulder surgery and will be out 5-6 months while he recovers.  That means best case scenario he could be back for the playoffs but most likely he's done for the season.  Given his contract and that he's in a team option year for the sprint season there's a good chance he's played his last game in burgundy.  We ride with Nico Hansen the rest of the season.  Now in Part 2 we're going to cover Matt Wells and the season as a whole so far.

Wells came in with a very specific idea of how he wanted to play and he's sticking to it, sometimes to a fault.  The players clearly have bought into the style.  That includes playing it out of the back, pressing on defense, and not being afraid to get physical.  There have been times where Wells has felt a little too stubborn about his style, but then there are times (like the Minnesota game) where he shows himself able to adjust his tactics and surprise the other team.

We covered the issues with the lack of discipline in the write-up of the Dallas game.  I have no problem with a team being physical, I remember the #RapidsThugLife days.  But being aggressive and being out of control are tow different things and the Rapids under Wells are teetering on that line.  I've also notice that Wells seems to have a higher opinion of the talent on the Rapids compared to the rest of the league than seems justified.  I like that he has a system and he's teaching the team to work in that system.  There have been coaches in the past who either had no system or their system was 'park the bus and hop'.  But the system has to work with the talent you have, and I'm not sure this one does.

To that end, lets look at the numbers.  So far the Wells' Rapids are playing at 1.07 PPG through the first 15 games.  Over a whole season that would be 25th (out of 31) in Rapids history.  Of course he's a new coach taking over a team that was struggling and trying to change their style of play.  How does his first 15 games compare to other coaches taking over the Rapids after 15 games?

1. Robin Fraser - 2019/2020 - 1.67 PPG*
2. Chris Armas - 2024 - 1.47 PPG
3. Pablo Mastroeni - 2014 - 1.47 PPG
4. Gary Smith - 2009 - 1.4 PPG
5. Matt Wells - 2026 - 1.07 PPG
6. Oscar Pareja - 2012 - 1.07 PPG
7. Fernando Claivjo - 2005 - 0.94 PPG
8. Anthony Hudson - 2019 - 0.6 PPG

* - Fraser is the only one to take over midseason, and then had to deal with the COVID cancellations and the MLS Is Back tournament, so I don't know how helpful this number is

Those are all the permanent coaches hired for the Rapids by KSE, and if you set Fraser aside Wells comes down right in the middle.  But its the middle of a pretty average-to-poor group.

Now there's one more factor in this, and that's the Rapids schedule.  Colorado has played a brutal schedule so far, both in the number of games and the quality of opponents.  They averaged one game every 5 days over the first half(ish) of the season.  Not only that but 9 of the 15 were on the road and one of the 6 home games was a home game in name only.  Add in 3 Open Cup games and that's a lot.

On top of that the quality of opponents has been significant.  11 of the 15 games we've played have been against teams currently in a playoff spot.  We've played 6 of the 9 current Western Conference playoff teams on the road.  We've also made 2 of our 3 Eastern Conference road trips already.  Really we only have 3 tough road trips left.  We have to go to San Jose, Dallas, and the Galaxy.  We do have a trip to the East left, Columbus, but that's no further than Portland.  Every other "tough" game is at home (unless we make the USOC Final, which would be a tough road game).  Colorado has the third easiest schedule left in the league and that's before taking into account the home/away splits.

So, where does that leave us on Wells?  I think its a mixed bag that needs more data.  Namely, how does the 9 games coming out of the break go?  5 of the 9 are at home with the 4 road games all against teams not in a playoff position.  Of the home games only 2 are against teams in a playoff position.  One is LAFC, a tough game no matter what, and the other is the second leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup, which is a must win no matter the quality of FSL.  The other games are against 3 of the 4 worst teams in the West and a home-and-home against San Diego, just in front of us in the standings.

After those 9 games we are one week out from the USOC semifinal and some decisions will have to be made.  If we doubled our point total, getting 16 points in the 9 games then we'll be back on a playoff pace (barely) and we will have to choose how to balance the two competitions.  Anything less than that and its time to write off the season and go all in on the USOC.  If we come out of the break like bats out of hell and pick up 20 points or more we can probably write-off a league match or two to focus on the semifinal.

Success this season hinges on either taking advantage of the easy schedule remaining, or winning the Open Cup.  Ideally we do both.  If we miss the playoffs and we don't make the USOC final its another lost season.  Even making the final and losing while missing the playoffs seems like a disappointment.    The Rapids have done well enough to put themselves in position to have a good season, but can they execute to get there?  

Player Salaries & Midseason Review Part 1

A few weeks back the Players Union had their annual salary drop but we were going through so many games I didn't have a chance to review it.  Now's a great time to do that, and we're going to combine it with a mid-season review.  We'll go (roughly) position, based on how they're listed on the Rapids website, and go over each player's salary and how they're doing compared to that.  Each player has two values, the first is his base salary, the second is his guaranteed compensation in 2026.  some of the contract and option years are guesses as the contract were signed before the season change was announced, so I'm not sure if a contract thru 2028 is through the 27-28 or the 28-29 season.

Goalkeepers:

Zach Steffen: $1.1M/$1.1M - Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

I don't think its any surprise to say that Steffen isn't living up to his price this season.  By some measures he's a bottom 10 keeper in MLS this season, and he's been injured.  Nico Hansen hasn't been lights out but he's been better for cheaper.  The Rapids should expect to decline his option this offseason.

Nico Hansen: $160K/$160K Contract Thru: 2027-28 Option Years: 28-29, 29-30

As mentioned Hansen hasn't been great but he's been fine, and at almost a tenth of the price of Steffen.  I'd understand if the Rapids didn't want to name him the #1 going into 2027 (at least not yet) but he should have a shot to compete for the role along with whomever they bring in to replace Steffen.

Adam Beaudry: $113K/$115K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

Beaudry is a work in progress.  Loaned out for this season he's still getting U-20 callups.  As a homegrown its worth continuing to see how he grows.

Central Defenders:

Rob Holding: $1.2M/$1.2M Contract Thru: 2026

Holding has been better than I expected this year, so much so that his salary seems reasonable.  He gives veteran presence to what has been a young backline this season.  He'll be 31 at the end of the season and out of contract.  I'm not sure I want to bring him back for 7-figured, but if he'd take a high 6-figure salary I'd consider giving him a 2 season deal, maybe with a 3rd (28-29) as an option.

Lucas Herrington: $200K/$235K Contract Thru: 28-29, Option Years: 29-30

Obviously the find of the season and one of the best deals in the league.  I did not expect anything this good from an 18-year old moving over from the A-League.  His contract length is pretty much meaningless as it would be absolutely stunning to see him here by the time the 27-28 season starts.  If he plays in the World Cup and plays well we might have a hard time seeing him again in a Rapids kit, but the FO needs to do whatever they can to keep him at least through this season for the USOC run.

Noah Cobb: $130K/$130K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

Cobb has been a good backup that has had to play more often than I'd like due to fixture congestion.  He'll be 21 next month so he's got plenty of room to grow and I think he has a good skillset.  I'd like to see him extended by a couple of seasons.

Ian Murphy: $400K/$448K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

Who?  6 minutes of action this year.  If that's all Wells sees in him we should decline the option and release him at the end of the season.

Outside Backs:

Reggie Cannon: $750K/$842K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

Cannon does a lot of things fine and nothing well.  He's essentially an acceptable MLS outside back being paid a TAM salary.  That doesn't work.  At the same time nobody has claimed the right back spot so there's a chance for him to have a real impact in the second half of the season.  If he doesn't it ight be worth thinking about a buyout in the offseason.  At the very least I think he's done in Colorado after next year's sprint season.

Kosi Thompson: $140K/$145K Contract Thru: 2026

He's a backup being paid like a backup.  I would hate to think he's the best we could do for a starter, but I'm not saying we give up on him either.

Keegan Rosenberry: $300K/$300K Contract Thru: 2027

Keegan is taking the Drew Moor "veteran presence on the bench" role and that's fine.  He's earned that and he can help us out being a late game sub and a very occasional spot starter.  I'm not sure how well he fits into Wells' system but that's not really what you're looking for out of him at this point.  His role is to just protect a lead late.  I'm even fine if they give him another contract at 32 if he wants one.

Miguel Navarro: $498K/$549K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

Navarro hasn't shown yet he's been worth the "Acquire from Fire, loan to Talleres, sell to Talleres, buy from Talleres" cycle he went through but as a MLS player he's good enough to justify what we're paying him and to compete for the left-back spot.  He's in the prime of his career at 27 so I don't know that we'll see much more than this from him, but that's still better than a lot of left backs we've tried since we sold Sam Vines (the first time).

Jackson Travis: $125K/$128K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

Travis is lucky he's a homegrown because otherwise I'm not sure he'd have a shot of sticking on the roster after this season.  For every good thing he does he does something bad.  Both he and Navarro seem to have a discipline problem too.  Again, left-back has been a tough spot for us but I think we can do better.

Central Midfielders:

Paxten Aaronson: $2M/$2.23M Contract Thru: 29-30

Aaronson's play has been a recurring topic on the blog this season.  When he's on he's earning his money and looks like the DP we signed.  He's just not on enough.  5 goals and 4 assists since he got here and he went 5 games in a row without any goal contributions in April.  He sees himself as more of a 6 than an 8, which means goal contributions aren't everything, but he's too invisible for long stretches for the highest paid player on the team and the highest cost to acquire in team history.

Hamzat Ojediran: $800K/$882K Contract Thru: 28-29 Option Years: 29-30, 30-31

The best thing you can say about a defensive midfielder is that you don't notice him when things are going well and you don't notice him when things are going badly, for different reasons.  That fits Hamzat the Destroyer this year.  He's had a couple of good offensive contributions and when our defense has broken down I've never seen him being the reason.  I'm a little concerned about how he dropped out of the starting XI the last couple of games, I'm hoping that was just due to the number of minutes we played.

Josh Atencio: $463K/$463K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

For the first 2/3rds of the season so far I was pretty frustrated with Atencio.  He was not good more often than not and I was wondering what Wells was seeing in him.  The last week or two before the break he really stepped up though and had multiple good games.  Maybe it was just a matter of time for him to find his right spot.  He still takes the occasional stupid card but if he can keep his level like he was showing as the first half wrapped up he should be pushing for starting minutes.

Connor Ronan: $510K/$562K Contract Thru: N/A

The N/A above is because there are multiple reports that the Rapids and Aberdeen have agreed to terms for Ronan to move back to Scotland when the window opens in a week and a half.  Aberdeen is still working out the final details of the contract with Connor but there's no expectation that the deal will fall through.  So Ronan has played his last game in burgundy.  He stood out as somebody who could actually play on the awful 2023 team but he could never reach that level of impact again, possibly because the roster got better around him.

Wayne Frederick: $113K/$113K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027, 27-28

When Wells and Smith made the decision to go with Frederick as the creator and sell Bassett a lot of eyebrows were raised but so far they've been right.  Both Cole and Wayne have 2 goals but Frederick has 5 assists to the former homegrown's 2.  And Frederick is about an eighth of Bassett's salary.  Wayne is going to turn 22 later this month and he still has more to learn, but I'm somewhat confident when he starts now compared to last year when I thought it was a waste.  Like a lot of this team he needs to be smarter, see the red card he took from the bench against Dallas.

Wingers:

Ted Ku-DiPietro: $500K/$556K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

Starting with two of the U-22 players.  Unfortunately KDP is made of glass.  At this point I think he's missed more games than he's been available for since we acquired him, coming off an injury, last offseason.  If he can stay healthy for any length of time he seems to have some real talent, but as the saying goes the best ability is availability.

Alexis Manyoma: $654K/$712K Contract Thru: July '26 (loan)

Another U-22 player.  Manyoma was brought in on a loan fee with a big purchase clause last summer.  2 starts, 15 appearances, 1 goal. Rumor leaked today that the Rapids won't exercise the purchase clause and he'll return to Estudiantes during the World Cup break.  The right move.   Another Padraig Smith summer-loan special.

Dante Sealy: $150K/$168K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

Sealy is a 23 year old making sub-$200K that came in with the expectation (due to his acquisition cost) of being a starter and contributor.  He hasn't met that expectation but I'm not sure how much you can blame him for that.  Clearly a purchase for the future, it was just by a team who needs to be winning now.

Georgi Minoungou: $113K/$113K Contract Thru: 27-28 Option Years: 28-29

See Sealy, Dante.  Another high priced acquisition who's not yet ready to be a starter/contributor, though he's a bit closer than Sealy.  He's got the same problem as Jonathan Lewis has, in that he's not afraid to take anyone on, even at time where he should really be passing out of trouble.

Ali Fadal: $113K/$113K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

Been on loan

Forwards:

Rafa Navarro: $1.39M/$1.45M Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

The first half MVP.  8 goals, 4 assists.  Tailed off a little bit at the end but he was asked to play so much.  1575 out of a possible 1650 minutes.  He was subbed out of the Toronto game with 6 minutes left, and he came into the Union Omaha USOC game in the 69th minute, and otherwise he played every minute of every game, league and cup.  Its not a surprise he only had 2 goals in the last 7 games, but both were in wins.  Another one who could be pursued in this upcoming window but the Rapids have to keep him.

Darren Yapi: $795K/$820K Contract Thru: 28-29 Option Years: 29-30

Yapi got a new contract, one he earned.  Its a little high for what he contributes but as a U-22 player it doesn't hit as hard as it appears.  3 goals and 2 assists so far, on pace for double-digit goal contributions.  I'd like to see him step it up a notch after the break and really give us somebody to rely on without Navarro.

Alex Harris: $88K/$90K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

Had one start and 3 late game sub appearances.  Hasn't done much but you can't expect much at this point.  Good that the coach has enough confidence in him to get him on the field.

Kimani Stewart-Baynes: $115K/$116K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027, 27-28

One appearance for 9 minutes.  He looked to be a rising star and got looks from the Canadian Nats, but he hasn't been in their picture at all leading up to the World Cup   I think he's released at the end of the season.  

Sydney Wathuta: $88K/$88K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

One bench appearance this season

Mamadou Billo Diop: $88K/$88K Contract Thru: 27-28 Option Years: 28-29, 29-30

2 appearances, 17 minutes.  Too soon to tell anything.

Bryce Jamison: $113K/$126K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

Been on loan

Donavan Phillip

Been on loan

What I draw from all of this is that we have enough 'replacement level' MLS players, but not enough game changers, and some of the players we're paying to be game changers (Aaronson, Steffen, Cannon) aren't getting the job done.  That matches our results where we can (generally) handle the bad-to-average teams but the good teams are running us over (for the most part).  Our talent isn't high enough to hang with the big dogs. 

This got really long already so I'm going to end it here and come back sometime in the next couple of days to do a part 2 about the coaching staff and where the team sits.