OG Playoff Matchup

My apologies for my silence.  As I mentioned I wasn't going to have a preview for the Austin match and that's because I was in Tokyo on vacation.  If you follow me on Twitter/BlueSky you saw my live-thread of going to see a J2-League matchup between JEF United Chiba and Ventforet Kofu at this time last week.  I'll have a writeup of that here next week.  My plan was to get home On Tuesday and do an Austin post-game Tuesday night or Wednesday but I brought a head cold home with me and this is the first time in the last 72 hours where I could focus on writing something so we'll go straight to the playoff preview.

Tomorrow night we're on the road in LA-LA land for the first of the best of 3 series against the Galaxy.  This is an OG Western Conference playoff matchup between the only two teams to have played all 29 seasons in the Western Conference.  It was also for a long-time the most played competitive fixture (including regular season, playoffs, USOC, etc.) between MLS teams.  I haven't seen an update to that list in close to 10 years though so I don't know if it's still the case.  Regardless these are two teams that know each other quite well.  The Galaxy are also the last team we've beaten in the playoffs, going back to that epic series in 2016.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 9pm so plan for a late night.  And remember, in the best of 3 series there are no ties.  If its level after 90 minutes we go straight to a PK shootout to determine a winner.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Djordje Mihailovic (ankle)

Not a surprise after what happened in Austin to see Sjordje out for this one.  All signs point to him being prepped to return Friday night.  Great to see Bassett and Steffen back as well as Cabral.

I think Armas will use Bassett at the 10 but I'd prefer to see him at his normal 8 and maybe use Yapi up front with Navarro.  Cabral won't start but he'll be the first option off the bench.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  So far this season we've lost 3-2 and 3-1 to the Galaxy and I don't see that changing tomorrow.  We should try to play this like we played the Club America game, being satisfied with a scoreless draw and trying to win it in PKs but I don't think we'll be successful at that.  Once LA gets one and forces us to attack they'll find a second.  We'll get one back but it won't be enough.

Rapids Lose But Will Still Host Playoff Game

Colorado played the same sort of game they've been playing, and got the same result, 0 points.  In this case they held Seattle to just a single goal but that was enough.  In the second half Rosenberry tried to pass to Larraz around midfield but the ball was a bit behind Oli.  He stabbed at it and the deflection bounced right into Morris' path.  He went in one on one with Steffen but Zack was able to make the save.  Unfortunately the ball feel to Rusnak and with Zack on the ground he had an open goal to look at.  Maxso was able to deflect it but not far enough to stop it from going in.  After the game Keegan took responsibility for the poor pass that started the sequence.

The problem continues to be a lack of creativity on offense.  The heavy legs and absence of Bassett has made it really difficult to score.  Luckily Cole said he'll be back for Austin which is good, because we'll likely need a result there.

The good news is on Sunday Portland played a scoreless draw with Dallas, which meant they can no longer catch us in the standings.  That ensures at least a top 8 finish and a home playoff game.  The next step is to avoid the play-in/wild-card game.  To do that the Rapids need to beat Austin or Minnesota needs to not beat St. Louis.  We can also avoid it with a draw and a Houston loss OR Vancouver not winning both remaining matches.  With a loss in Austin we need Vancouver to lose one of their remaining two or draw both of them.  Vancouver has a game next Sunday during the international break so we could be sure of avoiding the play-in game by then if they lose that match.

Not beating Austin likely means we finish 7th at best or keep our current 6th if we get lucky.  A win means we'll stay in 6th and could get to 5th if Houston doesn't beat the Galaxy.  We can't get into the top 4 and get home-field advantage in the first round.  Assuming we avoid the playin game we would start on the road the weekend of October 26th & 27th, have our home match the following weekend (Nov 2nd/3rd) and game 3 if needed on the weekend of Nov 9th/10th.  If we fall into the play-in game we would host that on Wednesday October 23rd most likely.

And with that we have a much needed two weeks off before Austin.  Odds are I'll be fairly quiet for those two weeks as I don't expect anything to happen this week and next week I have family things going on.  In fact, don't expect a game preview for the Austin game but I'll have a recap afterwards and a playoff preview that week after.

(Hopefully?) Not The Last Home Game Of The Season

Tomorrow night is the home finale of the regular season but barring a complete Couging in the last two games we should have a home match in the playoffs.  We only need to draw one of the two games or have Portland not win both of their games to get a home game (and even if neither of those happen if Minnesota or Vancouver fail to win both of their games we'd still get a home game).  We do need 3 points to avoid the play-in game though, which is a bit more precarious so it would be good to get that taken care fo tomorrow.  Its going to be tough with a hot Seattle team and a still missing Cole Bassett though.  Kickoff is at 7:30 tomorrow and beforehand C38 is hosting their first Tailgate Brewfest with 8 local breweries.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Cole Bassett (quad), M Kevin Cabral (elbow)

Whatever the "precaution" that they were supposedly holding Bassett out for sure looks more like a "he's hurt but we don't want to tell anyone" at this point.

This is the exact same prediction I made for Wednesday but I don't see how this is that different than what we'll see except maybe on the wings.  We have to put our best players out there, regardless of miles on the legs, and try to get a result.

Prediction: 2-2, goals by Navarro and Mihailovic.  This seems really optimistic at this point and the 2-2 score line is becoming my go to but I can't predict a win and I can't predict a good defensive performance the way this team is playing.  I'm hopeful that the final home match and Seattle being a little tired from the 3rd game in a week will be enough to push us to at least a draw and clinching that playoff home match.  I'd hate to go into Austin in two weeks needing a result to avoid 9th place.

A Rapids Game That Went To The Dogs

Woof.  This is going to be a short recap because there's not much to say.  This team is out of energy and it shows.  After a decent first half where they got a goal just before the break from Conor Ronan they came out of the locker room flat and let the Galaxy score 3 transition goals against them.  There's just too many minutes in their legs and we are stumbling to the finish line.  It is concerning we're seeing the same defensive issues in transition in game 32 as we saw in game 1 though.  There's clearly a flaw in our defensive scheme that can be capitalized on.  It was also the first loss at home in 12 matches which wasn't great.

With the third loss in the last four games the Rapids have dropped to 6th place.  After last night's results:

1 point gained by Colorado or lost by Portland clinches a home playoff game

3 points gained by Colorado or lost by Minnesota keeps us out of the play-in game

2 points gained by LAFC or lost by Colorado eliminates us from finishing above 3rd (and having home-field advantage in the second round)

Winning out now only gets us to 5th without help.  We need other results to go our way in order to get back to the top 4 and home-field advantage in the first round

Realistically based on our play I think a 6th place finish and being eliminated in a 3-game first round series is the most likely outcome.  Still a far more successful season than expected but hard to see us going out with a whimper like this.

Really hard to pick a man of the match in these games.  The team is just so dead nobody really stands out.

Colorado Needs To Find 3 Points Against Galaxy Tomorrow

With only one win in the last three games the Rapids are on the cusp of a tailspin, something they need to stop tomorrow night in Commerce City.  It won't be easy as the Western Conference leading Galaxy (and second overall in the league) are in town.  The Galaxy can't quite clinch the West with a win but they can get very close.  If Colorado can't get the 3 points tomorrow there's a good chance they drop out of the top 4 and have to start worrying about avoiding the play-in game (there's only 5 points between the Rapids and 9th place).  Kickoff is at 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Cole Bassett (quad), M Kevin Cabral (elbow)

QUESTIONABLE: GK Adam Beaudry (upper body)

We heard over the weekend that Bassett was being held out of the Minnesota game as a precaution, but having him out again tomorrow night sounds a bit more serious than precautionary.  Good to see Sam Vines available for selection again though.

I don't think Vines goes right back into the starting XI, he'll need some training time under him.  I also think we saw the limitations of Yapi on Saturday and we'll got back to more natural wingers for this one.  Otherwise this is fairly straight forward.

Prediction: 2-2 draw, goals by Navarro and Harris.  Based on what we've seen recently I'm not sure we have the legs to keep up with the Galaxy.  The home advantage will help and I think we can battle to a draw but I'd be surprised picking up all 3 points.  A loss is more likely than a win IMO.