Road Warriors Go Again

Honestly, this is my focus tomorrow night. Sorry Rapids.

The Rapids have a quick turn around from their Ohio trip to head down to Texas.  Austin is on the schedule and that schedule is getting tight.  Specifically this is when Matt Wells is going to have to start making some decisions about which games matter more over the next week and a half.  We've got Austin tomorrow night and then three games in a week at the Dick, the middle of which is the USOC semi-final.  Anyone that plays tomorrow night could have a week off to be fully rested for St. Louis in that one, but that means leaving Montreal on Saturday with a bare-bones lineup.  Or he could mix and match some starters on both games.  Add to that the possibility of Whittaker or Farkhi getting their visas and being available (Sadiq seems like a long-shot).  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), M Ali Fadal (head), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: GK Nico Hansen (leg)

I'm going to guess that Hansen doesn't make this trip to give him more rest and then if he's able he gets Montreal to get back into the flow before the USOC match.

Outside of that I'm not actually going to predict a lineup for this one.  Coming off the 3-0 mess on Saturday, the balancing of the roster against the USOC match, and the unknowns about the visas means nothing would surprise me tomorrow outside of the keeper position.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Until they actually prove it on the road I can't predict anything but a loss.  Austin is a bad team, as bad as Columbus with even a worse defense, but this Rapids team has no mental toughness and once things start going sideways they don't stop.

Another Garbage Road Game

Ugh, I really thought this would be the game where we got something figured out on the road but nope, we looked worse than we did in San Diego.  I'm not going to spend much of any time analyzing this one, its just garbage from start to finish.  Two things about the game I do want to mention though.

• The corner kick that led to the first Columbus goal appeared to be offside, so much so the color commentator kept harping on it during the game.  It wasn't.  It was almost the textbook definition of passive offside, which is not to be called in the current offside interpretation.  Calling offside is not just about the position of the player, that player must actively be involved in play too.  The cross that Holding intercepted and flubbed out for a corner wasn't close enough to any Columbus player to be played by them, nor was Holding close enough to any Crew attacker to be interfered with.  Thus the offside players were passively offside and the flag should not have gone up (and didn't).
  
  If you want to argue that's a stupid way to interpret the rule and it penalizes defenders playing it safe, I'd agree with you.  But that's the rule as FIFA and the IFAB want it enforced right now.
  
  
• Our subs in this game were Kosi Thompson, Reggie Cannon, Alex Harris, Donovan Phillip, and Keegan Rosenberry.  Three right-backs and two rookie midfielder when down a goal.  That shows you how thin this roster is while we wait for visas.  I said it last week that this was a hell of a transfer window from the Rapids, but you have to wonder of the FO could have gotten one or two of the deals done before the final day so that this team isn't so weakened for the next week or two.  If we lose the USOC semi or miss the playoffs by a few points it puts pressure on the signings to really deliver in the sprint season and the 27-28 season to make up for what the moves cost us this season.

That's it for the game.  Now lets talk about the season.  Burgundy Wave made some good points today on Burgundy Sky that should be repeated here.  The Rapids have one draw this season, the 0-0 at LAFC.  They have 10 wins.  In every one of them they scored the first goal.  They have 12 losses.  In 10 of them they gave up the first goal, then you had the game in Toronto where they scored first but had two red cards and lost, and then you have the Sandy curse where we scored first and loss, as we always seem to do in Utah.

Essentially the Rapids are a team that wins when they score first unless something unusual happens and lose when they concede first.  The last time we won a league game after giving up the first goal was over two years ago, our trip to Dallas on August 31st, 2024 where we won 3-2 on a stoppage time winner from Yapi after giving up a goal in the first 10 minutes.  That's not a great streak to be on.

Wells needs to get us mentally locked in on the road and when we go down a goal.  That's the challenge for the rest of the season now.

Man of the Match: Miguel Navarro.  Unlike the rest of the team he kept fighting after going down.

Potential USOC Final Preview

The Rapids enter their post-Rafa era with a trip to Colunbus tonight.  Both teams are still alive in the Open Cup and if they both win their semis the Crew would host a rematch of tonight's tilt in the final.  That said based on current form both teams might be considered the underdog in their semi.  The road has not been a great place for the Rapids but nothing has been good for the home side, can we figure out how to get our first win away from home since May?  Kickoff is at 5:30/

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Nico Hansen (leg), GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), M Ali Fadal (head), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Hamzat Ojediran (yellow card suspension), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

Along with this none of the trio we signed this week are available as they're waiting on their visas.  So a thin squad heading to B1G country.

Assuming no other availability surprises the only question seems to be the winger opposite Minoungou.  Yapi has already been confirmed to be getting a shot up top so our options are players like Harris, KSB, or pushing one of our center players wide like Fredrick.  I went with Harris but that's a guess.

Prediction: 0-0 draw.  Both these teams have offenses that are struggling but Colorado has a top-tier defense while Columbus is in the bottom quarter of goals allowed.  I just don't see where the goal is going to come from for the Rapids but if there is a winner I could see the Rapids getting a smash and grab 3 points.

Rapids Finish Biggest Transfer Window Ever

Technically we're still waiting the official announcement on one of these moves but the Rapids are teasing it for tomorrow morning so along with Bogert's reporting we're going to call that official.

First, the the bare bones recap of what the Rapids did in the 2026 summer window.

OUT:

• M Connor Ronan - Aberdeen (free)
• D Ian Murphy - San Diego (2nd round pick plus up to $100K GAM)
• D Lucas Herrington - Hull City ($17M + up to $6M + 15% sell-on)
• M Dante Sealy - Montreal ($1.4M GAM + up tp $300K GAM)
• F Rafa Navarro - St. Louis ($12M + up to $250K + sell-on)

IN:

• D Loic Williams - Granada (unknown fee, $1M-$3M)
• M Youssef Maziz - OH Leuven (free)
• F Sayed Abu Farkhi - Maccabi Tel Aviv ($6M)
• M Ibrahim Sadiq - AZ Alkmaar ($1.16M)
• M Morgan Whittaker - Middlesbrough ($10.7M + up to $3M)

Yeah, that's a lot.  From a pure position standpoint it was almost like for like but we swapped a defender for a midfielder.  From a talent level we probably increased, greatly.

Obviously we've already seen Williams and Maziz, so lets talk about the other trio.

I talked about Farkhi a week ago and my overall feel hasn't changed.  Long-term we'll probably look back and think the forward swap of Rafa for Farkhi helped us or worst case didn't hurt us long term.  St. Louis over paid for Rafa and we may have over paid for Farkhi but given his age that's likely to pan out in our favor.  But short-term I don't like leaving our forward position up to Farkhi (if he gets his visa) or Yapi in two weeks when we face St. Louis in the USOC semifinal.  If our lack off offense leads to us losing that game then Farkhi and the other signings will need to pay off big in 2027 and 27-28.  Farkhi was signed as a U-22 player.

Ibrahim Sadiq is the biggest "mystery" of these signings.  Matt Wells said tonight that he saw him when Spurs played against him in the Conference League as was impressed, thought he could have fit in London.  That said he only took a little over a million to sign and he only signed a 2 year deal, through 27-28.  That doesn't scream "cornerstone" signing.  Sadiq is a 26 year old winger, Ghanaian, and started his career ins Ghana's Right to Dream academy before moving to Denmark and then Sweden, finally ending up in the Netherlands with Alkmaar.  I would expect he would compete with Minoungou for playing time to start.  Sadiq will be on a TAM contract.

The last signing, and the one that isn't yet official, is Morgan Whittaker.  A 25 year old winger currently with Middlesbrough Whittaker has bounced around the Championship, playing for Derby County, Swansea City, going on loan to Lincoln City and Plymouth Argyle while there, moved to Plymouth Argyle, and then Middlesbrough 18 months ago.  The report on him is that he's streaky but when he's on he's one of the best attackers in the division.  His defense is questionable though.  This is somebody Wells has been tracking and pursuing for a while and Matt is all in on him despite those concerns.  I'd expect him to be an immediate starter, replacing Sealy, once his visa is done.  He plays as an inverted winger, as does Sadiq, so I'd expect to see a lot of cutting in to the middle.  He will, obviously, be a Designated Player.

All combined the Rapids generated 29M in cash plus another $1.4M in GAM in this window, and then turned around and spent somewhere between $19-$21M.  Remember, prior to last year's acquisition of Aaronson Colorado had never spent up to $3M on a single player!  If you add in the $8M in 2025 for Mihailovic and the $7.7M for Bombito in 2024, that's almost $50M alone.  That's probably enough to cover every fee the team has paid in its 31 year history.

Take a look at these two rosters.  The first is the opening day lineup in Seattle.  The second is the potential lineup once all the visas are processed.

I can't remember a season that's changed the roster this much by choice.  At this point even if healthy I would start Hansen over Steffen and eight of the other ten positions are pretty locked in on paper.  The only real battles are between Minoungou and Sadiq for the  second winger spot and between Yapi and Farkhi at forward.

Matt Wells had a media availability and it sounded like he has much more input on the roster than we saw during the Chris Armas and Robin Fraser eras.  This clearly shows that.  Many of these moves are players he had identified while at Spurs.  I don't know if its just because we have the money from the Herrington and Rafa deals or its because Kevin Demoff is more involved or if its Wells, but this is a different, more active, Front Office than we've ever seen.  Only time will tell if these were the right moves, but given the conservative, barely spending, strategy of the past really wasn't working I'm happy to see this new tack.

Sayed Abu Farkhi Signed, More To Come?

Just a quick post to acknowledge that the Sayed Abu Farkhi deal is done.  $6M transfer fee, signed today.  Braidon Nourse reports that he'll be on $800K salary and will have a clause that pays him part of his next transfer fee as an incentive.

I'm going to hold off on what this means for the lineup because Tom Bogert broke news of two more deal almost done today that are expected to get over the line before tomorrow's cut off.  English winger Morgan Whittaker from Middlesbrough and Ghanaian winger Ibrahim Sadiq from AZ Alkmaar are both apparently inbound.  Once the window closes tomorrow night we'll have a wrap-up of all of this and where we sit.

Kings Of The Rockies, Again

 

Colorado didn't let the hubub around Rafa distract them from the goal on Saturday, and led by Navarro himself put FSL to the sword in a 1-0 win and retained the Rocky Mountain Cup on the tiebreaker.  The Rapids made it difficult on themselves because their inability to score continued and they had to make the single goal hold up late, but the job was done.  It probably wasn't as hard as it felt like to the fans given the intensity of the rivalry and the number of times we've had our heart broken in the past.  The final xG was 1.6 to 0.14 and FSL didn't have a shot on target, but for the 20 minutes after we took the lead it certainly felt like the opposition was just a half step from levelling it.

Shout outs go to the whole team, everything stepped it up for this one.  Ironically the "worst" player in the starting lineup based on FotMob ratings turned out to be Rafa but I don't think anyone thinks he played poorly.  Everyone was just on their game.  I have to give particular credit to Minoungou who I've been less than impressed with up to this point.  His final passes and shots were finally finding the right spots.  Sometimes, ball not go in though.

Ojediran was rightfully called out for his excellent play and on another night with less on the line probably would have been MotM.  He's where FSL attacks went to die.  Adam Beaudry was left with almost nothing to do in his emergency start, even his big save on almost the final touch of the game turned out to be unnecessary as the FSL attacker was flagged for offside.  Hell of a save though.  Also the new guy, Maziz, understood the assignment.  After providing the winning assist on the goal kick in front of the travelling fans he turned and gave them a look that said what we were all thinking. 

If I had one complaint it was that playing it out of the back as much as we did with a backup keeper was a bit scary.  There were moments that didn't look as sure as Hansen has made them look.

After the game Rafa was serenaded by C38 and also given a sendoff by his teammates.  Its not official yet but like with the Herrington deal the team knows he's gone.  He clearly was having mixed emotions about leaving, he loves the fans and his teammates, but if the club doesn't want to give him the contract he wants he has to do what's right for him.  I can't blame him, though I do with the FO had waited to the offseason, even for a smaller fee.

The first team was followed up by a 1-0 win by the Unified Team over their Salt Lake counterparts on a final minute banger.  That allowed them to win the Unified Rocky Mountain Cup.  Rapids 2 also won their season series over Real Monarchs which means all three Rapids clubs beat their Utah rivals this season.  Kings (and Queens) of the Mountains indeed.

Man of the Match: Reggie Cannon.  You get the goal that wins the Cup, you get Man of the Match.  Simple.

A Different Kind Of Game Preview, Of Course Its The RMC

As I was getting ready to put this game preview together Tom Bogert broke the news that the Rapids and St. Louis are close on a deal that would send Rafa Navarro to StL for about $12 million.  So close that he followed up that report with the possibility that it gets done before the game tomorrow.  If he's reporting that we're really at the brass tacks stage and the teams are just negotiating about the exact price and timing.  We have to assume Rafa won't be here by the Columbus game next week.

This is a ridiculous move that shows how unserious this club is, and its particularly trash if they agree to make the move before we play the Rocky Mountain Cup decider tomorrow night.  Honestly, Smith should be fired on the spot if he agrees to the deal before 10pm tomorrow night.  Quite simply you can't sell our best player hours before a rivalry match.  You just simply can't.  It shouldn't even be in consideration.

Really, the Rapids can't sell Rafa and be thought as a serious club who wants to win.  Going into this window we were (and are) two games away from our first major trophy in 16 years.  Then we sold our best player in Lucas Herrington.  Now that was a deal they could in no way pass up.  That's understandable.  The Front Office also gets credit for having Loic Williams queued up and ready to step in, and had him here as soon as he was able to so he could start when the season kicked back off.

This isn't the case here.  Farchi is rumored to sign, but isn't done yet.  The clock on his paperwork doesn't even start until that signing, and he can't practice with the team until the paperwork is done.  We are 19 days out from the USOC semifinal.  BEST case scenario Farchi gets his paperwork in time for the semifinal to be the first game he's available, with almost no practice time with the team.  Anyone else (who isn't American) is probably beyond the semifinal now.

So you're putting the team in a huge hole with the hope it pays off down the road.  In other words the same old Rapids.  But in this case it likely costs you a shot at a major trophy, something this team desperately needs.  You can't make this move, but they are clearly going to.  This is not a serious club.

So on to tomorrow's match.  The Rapids must win to retain the Rocky Mountain Cup.  Their only players out are Diop, Steffen, and KDP, all the long-term injuries.  We are in the best shape we've been in in some time, but we may not have Rafa.  Meanwhile FSL has 8 players out or questionable.  All the factors are on our side, but we might blow it up in the next 24 hours.  And we have certainly managed to self-destruct in thise games even when we're favored anyway.

Before this Rafa news I was thinking a 2-1 win but I was hesitant to go out on that limb given our history in the Rocky Mountain Cup.  If Rafa plays that's still possible.  If Rafa is sold before that, or held out due to the deal, then I think a 0-0 draw and a loss of the RMC is a real possibility.

Rapids Lose $500K In GAM And Other Questionable Roster Moves

Late this afternoon Tom Bogert reported, confirmed by Brenden Ploen and Burgundy Wave, that the Rapids are sending Dante Sealy back to Montreal for $1.4M in GAM plus up to $300K more in performance add-ons.  To refresh your memory Sealy was acquired from Montreal in December for $1.9M in GAM plus up to $600K additional in performance add-ons.

I think its safe to say few or none of those add-ons hit given Sealy's lack of perforance in Colorado, but its also not safe to count on any of the new add-ons hitting from his play in Montreal given how he's been playing.  So going with just the base trade amounts the Rapids spent $500K in GAM to rent Sealy for 8 months.  In that time he had 5 assists, 7 shots on target, and played a bit over 1000 minutes.  So essentially we paid about $500 of GAM per minute of play and $100K of GAM per assist.

Crest to Smith and the FO for cutting bait and not throwing good money after bad, but this was a horrible deal.  At the time it seemed like a move for a guy who might be better than average but a lot of money was spent for him.  Even Matt Doyle was questioning the payout.  SO we lost $500K and we burned 1000 minutes on a guy who was not a match for what we were doing.  Meanwhile Yapi is wasting away on the bench.  Yapi's not a winger, but he's still better than what Sealy was giving us.

Speaking of overpaying for talent, the other bit of new was yesterday where the on-again/off-again move for Sayed Abu Farchi appears to be on-again, this time for good, as reported by the same group as had the Sealy news.  Unfortunately, like Sealy, this seems to be an overpay for a winger.  $6M (dollars, not shekels) is the reported price.  Right now Transfermrkt, which is certainly not the end-all and be-all of valuation, lists him at a little over $2M in value.  

He is a 20 year old who's getting his first taste with the Israeli national team and clearly has some potential, but is only play so far has been in the Israeli league.  The league is ranked in the 40s worldwide (MLS is 10-20) and 24th in the UEFA coefficients.  In comparison Scotland is 19th in the coefficients and multiple teams in the SPL have bought USL talent in this window, because MLS talent is out of their price range (or they're not interested in going there unless its Celtic or Rangers).  Remember guys like Sam Nicholson and Connor Ronan are now playing in the SPL and neither of them would (or should) start in MLS.  And the Israeli league is worse than that.

Meanwhile this week Seattle just spent $6M to buy Dejan Joveljić from Kansas City.  Joveljić just turned 27 and scored 18 goals last season for KC, and has 8 for an all-time bad MLS side KC this season.  He has 60 goals in 158 league appearances over 5.5 years.  A clearly proven MLS striker, and he sold for the same price as Colorado is paying for Farchi.

I really hope he's the next Herrington, who takes a step up in league quality and matches it with his play.  I know he's had interest from other European teams.  But I can't look at this ant not think that in the best case scenario this is a move to win in the future, again.  Meanwhile we are literally 2 wins away from our first major trophy in 16 years.  We should be making moves to win now.  Even if this was a big swing for a proven name from outside the league we're down to under 3 weeks before the semi-final, if they're not in the league already (or American), they won't help us beat St. Louis as they likely won't have their paperwork.

There's a lot of talk with the Sealy move that the Rapids will be looking for another winger before the window closes on Wednesday.  The only real name we've heard is 30-year old Brazilian winger Everton, currently playing for Flamengo.  That would certainly be more of a win-now move, but probably not in time to help in the semi.  Also he's a left-sided winger, as is Farchi, so hopefully one of them would be comfortable on the right.

Colorado Embarrassed In San Diego

We're not going to spend much time on this one.  The Rapids laid a huge egg in SAn Diego, which seems typical for them this season.  They get on a small run at home, things start going the right way, then a road trip and bam, everything falls apart.  In this case it WAs Rob Holding who had the worst game from a Rapids defender in many, many years.  Directly or partially responsible for all three goals scored against us, including another mishandled backpass.  That's becoming a serious concern in a system where Wells encourages playing it around the back.

The offense wasn't any better as the manager reverted to his preferred 4-5-1 formation with Sealy and Minoungou on the wings, with predictably bad results.  Sealy was noticeably a hole where attacks went to die.  The Rapids spent $3.9 million in GAM on the two wingers and they've been severely disappointing this season.  They would have been better off spending $4M on a new scoreboard.  There's 9 days left in the transfer window and we need attacking reinforcements.

There's only one thing to do after this, pick ourselves up and win the Rocky Mountain Cup at home on Saturday.  The silver lining is that nobody picked up a yellow card that got them suspended for the match.  But they need to put this game behind them and move on ASAP.

Man of the Match: Nico Hansen.  Not at fault for any of the goals and came up with a couple of saves to keep it from getting worse.

Rapids Go For 4 In A Row In Sunny San Diego

Colorado is looking for a clean sweep of the three game week tomorrow night as they go into San Diego as potentially the favorite in the match.  The home side is .500 since the break with a draw sandwiched between a win and a loss on either side.  The first of those losses came in Commerce City as we came out of the World Cup break.  Meanwhile the Rapids have only lost once in those games, though it was the only road game of the group.  Kick off is at 8:#0pm and 'Celo will be on the Spanish call if you get tired of whichever English announcer who doesn't know the Rapids Apple TV throws on the game.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Miguel Navarro (concussion), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Kimani Stewart-Baynes (lower leg), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

The only change is the addition of Miguel Navarro in concussion protocol after taking an elbow to the head Wednesday night.  With Travis also out its likely Kosi Thompson will be pressed into service at left back.

Also Rafael Navarro, Hamzat Ojediran, and Kosi Thompson are all one yellow card from suspension.  Picking one up tomorrow night would leave them missing the Rocky Mountain Cup decider next weekend.  If it were up to me I'd sit Rafa tomorrow but my guess is that Wells won't see it the same way (plus he's already played 180 minutes this week).

Wells seems to prefer Atencio over Ojediran, and Hamzat came off hobbled on Wednesday.  Plus with the yellow card threat I don't think he starts.  I have no idea on the wingers, those are just guesses.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Navarro.  San Diego has a better offense but a worse defense, and they're at home.  With as many minutes as we've put on our legs I don't see us maintaining the shutout streak.  We are a better team than them though and we hold out for the point.

Rapids Continue Home Dominance

 

Colorado controlled the game last night and once again did enough to get the three points and the shutout.  LAFC rolled out a rotated lineup, either because they were cocky or because they just needed to get some guys some rest but either way it did not work.  The first half was largely controlled by the home side, especially after the first 10 minutes, and LAFC could only put one shot on goal, from 20+ yards out.

Meanwhile on the other end of the field the burgundy boys were finding their chances.  The Rapids had four shots on goal in the first half, plus a penalty kick (more on that later).  It took a little help to break through though as a free kick from Maziz was redirected and handcuffed the LAFC keeper.  Officially it went down as an own goal but I thought the shot was on target before the redirection.  Late in the half the Rapids earned a PK and Rafa stepped up to move into 2nd place )tied) on the Rapids all-time scoring list...and was stoned by the 22 year old in his first ever MLS start.  Nto great.

The second half was a little more balanced with LAFC trying to find an equalizer but getting stuffed at every attempt.  Finally LAFC gave in and put Son and Bouanga in and the Rapids played the last 10-15 on the book foot just trying to survive.  The good news is that despite the step up in skill LAFC did not have a step up in ideas.  They were dangerous but never really got close to breaking through, with only one shot on target and that was from 20+ yards too.  The team held out and got the three points.

A great win over a good team and it continued our home winning and shutout streak, both to 4 games.  We still haven't given up a goal with 11 on the field since the World Cup break (the only one being when we were down a man in St. Louis).  On the down side we've still only scored one goal from the run of play when playing against 11 men since the break (PK, free kick last night, and two against shorthanded KC).  But a win is a win and that's 4 out of 5 moving us up to 8th on PPG.  If the playoffs started today we'd host Portland.

Random Thoughts:

• Maziz has only played about ~75 minutes but so far so small sample size and all that but he looks like he belongs.  Could this be three good international signings in a row? (Herrington, Williams, Maziz)
• Also I was hard on Cannon earlier this season but the last two games he's "eaten his Wheaties" as the Pope of Commerce City put it.  With the good play by Miguel Navarrro on the other side we might have a settled back line.
• Nico Hansen has ensured that Steffen won't play in burgundy again, barring a late-season comeback to cover for Nico being injured.
• Rafa needs to be done with PKs.  He's too inconsistent.
• The team got worse putting Sealy and Minoungou in.  I know the goal was a two winger formation, but we don't have the players for it.
• Maziz has also made Aaronson better, again in small minutes.  It allows him to play his more natural defensive 8.
• Yapi and Thompson join Rafa and Ojediran in being on yellow card watch going into the game on Saturday.  Picking up a card in Saturday means they'll be suspended for the Rocky Mountain Cup.
• Miguel Navarro took an elbow to the head forcing him to be subbed due to concussion concerns late.  Lets hope that's not a long-term injury.
• By the end of the game we were playing a 6-man back line.  Whatever it takes.

Man of the Match: Hamzet Ojediran.  He was a beast in midfield snuffing everything out and feeding Paxten and Maziz.  Then late in the game he sacrificed his ankle to block a shot, got up, hobbled over to make the play, cleared the ball, then went back down in a heap and was subbed off.  Wells suggested that the oinjury wasn't too bad, but gving him the weekend off might be a good thing.

Rapids Start a SoCal Doubleheader

California dreaming for Colorado as tomorrow night LAFC comes to Commerce City before the Rapids head out to the coast to play San Diego on Saturday.  The home game is definitely the tougher of the two, 4th overall in the West on PPG but they've struggled a little bit recently with only one regulation win in the last five games (two shootout wins in the Leagues Cup though),  Colorado's hasn't allowed a goal while at full strength since the break but only scored one goal from the run of play against a full strength side.  So both teams are looking to get on a bit of a roll.  Kickoff is at 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Josh Atencio (yellow card accumulation), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Kimani Stewart-Baynes (lower leg), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No surprises there.  Both Ojediran and Rafa are one card from suspension as well.  If they pick up a card tomorrow they sit for the trip to San Diego.  If they pick up a card in California...they sit for the Rocky Mountain Cup.  I'm just saying, I'm not going to hate it if either of them get yellows tomorrow.

Its always hard to figure out how Wells is going to rotate the team on a 3-game week.  With Atencio suspended I assume Ojediran will start and I'm guessing Maziz will.  Otherwise I'm mainly guessing here.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Actually a scoreless draw is a possibility here.  LAFC has only one win in eight tries at the Dick, and that was in 2018.  But they are a better team than us and I'm not yet convinced we can score against better teams.  I think LAFC finds a way to get the 3 points.

Colorado Does What It Needed To

A solid, if maybe unconvincing, win in Commerce City Saturday night is what the Rapids needed entering this 3 game week.  SKC made it easier by putting up a red card in each half but even before the first Colorado looked like the better team.  That said, it wasn't all easy, a former Rapid had two good chances to put SKC on the scoreboard, but Calvin Harris couldn't quite reach the end of a perfect cross, then put a breakaway off the post.  Part of the reason he's no longer in Colorado.

With the win the Rapids would be in the last playoff spot if the season ended today, with a wild card game in Seattle.  They are dead on the Bodmer Line at 1.32 PPG, putting us on track for the exact average point total (44-45) for the last playoff spot.

The reason this game wasn't that convincing is that the Rapids still struggled to find the final shot.  28 shots, 7 big chances, only 4 shots on target (1 off the bar too).  2 of them went in, which is great, but up an man they managed only two shots on goal, and up two men they only managed one (Rafa's goal).  That's actually half as many as they had against Austin two weeks ago 11v11.  14 shots on target in the 4 games since we've been back is still something that needs to be fixed.

Still, a win is a win and 3 wins in 3 at home is a great set of results.  We're doing what we need to when we need to.  Only one goal allowed since the break too.  It does leave us in a spot where writing off the rest of the league season to focus on the Cups would be absurd, but going all in on the playoff run is unlikely to pay off with significantly improved odds.  So it continues to be a balancing act.

Another positive sign from this game was the assists on both goals.  On the first our new signing, Youssef Maziz, dropped a great corner kick right on to Cannon's head.  If he can bring a Jack Price-esque style to our set pieces that would be a good addition.  Maziz looked good during his play from the field as well.  On the second goal Aaronson made a nice move and put a cross actually in the est place it could go, slightly behind Rafa, which allowed Navarro to spin, receive the ball, and then spin back with time to pick his spot.  If Youssef can unlock Paxten that's w win.

Also that goal tied Rafa with Diego Rubio with 38 goals all-time (regular season matches), 4th on the all-time list.  Next up is a tie for 2nd between Omar Cummings and Paul Bravo at 39.  Presumably he gets to and passes that this season, barring injury.  Then its a jump up to Conor Casey on the top of the record book at 50.

Next up is a tough one, LAFC at home on short rest.  Then a trip out to SoCal to play San Diego before a week off before the Rocky Mountain Cup.  Beating FSL is a must but getting one point out of the other two games would be acceptable, more than that would be a good step into showing we're improving from what we've been.

Man of the Match: Reggie Cannon.  Scored the first goal, drew the second red card, and overall was active and involved in a way we hadn't seen for a while.  Right back hasn't been fully locked down this seasons, maybe this is a step towards really claiming it again.

OG Matchup

The KC Wiz, er, Kansas City Wizards, er, Sporting Kansas City are in town for tomorrow night's matchup between two original teams.  Our I-70s rivals are in contention for the Wooden Spoon this season and this is a game we must take advantage of.  Before the match the team is going to have a short celebration to honor Keegan Rosenberry's 200th appearance last game.  The ceremony will start at 7:15 with kickoff at the normal 7:30 (or thereabouts).

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Kimani Stewart-Baynes (lower leg), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No surprises there.  The one surprise is the name that's not there, Youssef Maziz.  Our new midfielder got his visa earlier this week and is eligible for selection.  He was not allowed to train with the team until the paperwork came through though, he was only allowed to do individual fitness and skill training.  That makes it very unlikely that he starts but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 15-20 minutes if the game state allows it.

Also Atencio, Rafa Navarro, and Ojediran are all one yellow card from suspension.

This seems straight forward.  While I would start Yapi its clear that Wells doesn't rate him as a starter.  Minoungou and Sealy seem to be the favored winger options.  Everyone else is fairly self-explanatory.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Navarro and Yapi (off the bench).  There's really no excuse to not wi this game by at least 2.  KC is a horrible team and we need to show we can handle teams like this.  Any sort of struggle and its a good sign we should just focus on the Rocky Mountain and Open Cups for the rest of the season.

Rapids Sell Herrington For Record Amount

So long Lucas, ,we hardly knew you.  The long-rumored deal with Hull City was made official today.  Per Tom Bogert and Braidon Nourse the terms were $17 million up front, $6 million in potential performance add-ons, and a 15% sell-on fee.  Depending on the exact number this will probably be the 7th highest fee paid for a MLS player and if the performance incentives hit (and they should) it would jump to second, based on Wikipedia data.  Its easily the most ever paid for a defender, the prior record being the $8M the Rapids got for Moise Bombito.

This is a deal the Rapids had to make.  Yes we're midseason and in a Cup run, but you can't pass up what could easily be a $25M total payday for an 18 year old you spent a million on less than a year ago.  Its not fair to the player and its not a smart move.  And credit to the Rapids, getting Williams in appears to have given us sufficient coverage to handle this move.

As far as Herrington goes, he is very likely going to have the best post-Rapids career of any former player.  Rapids players have gone on to do good things, from Marcus Hahnemann to Auston Trusty, but no player has left this young at this value.  There's a decent chance we're going to be able to say "I saw that guy play when he was just coming up".  Lucas was fun to watch and composed beyond his years.

With this move arguably the most important 6-12 months in Rapids history has started.  Padraig Smith came out and said today that all the money from the sale will be reinvested into the club.  Then we have the USOC run.  At the end of the season the KSE leadership will have to decide if they're keeping Smith, and in what capacity.  Once the calendar flips to 2027 we've got the sprint season and then the start of the winter schedule.  Each of these are major turning points for this club.  Which makes the following both expected and disappointing 

Sport5 (Israel's ESPN) is reporting a deal has been struck for Maccabi Tel Aviv forward Sayed Abu Farhi.  The report is $6M plus a 25% sell-on clause.  Burgundy Wave can confirm the Rapids are interested in him, but can not confirm the size of the offer.  Abu Farhi is listed as a forward but some basic research suggests he might be more of a winger or outside striker.  Transfermrkt, not always the most reliable, lists his value at about $2.3M

This seems like a massive overpay for a player from a league that's not as good as MLS.  However if the deal is 6 million Israeli shekels + the sell-on, that's about $2M, which would be much more in line with his value.  Still feels like an overpay but he wouldn't instantly become the second highest purchased Rapids player.  If we really pay $6M for him it feels like another Padraig Smith special, where we look for a diamond in the rough instead of paying for proven talent.

Reports like that just reinforces the feeling I have that this team is not prepared for this critical juncture.  I haven't seen anything since Kevin Demoff took more of a hands on approach 9-10 months ago that suggests this club is going to change course and really take advantage of this.  Its the same 'Moneyball' approach that, obviously, paid off with Herrington but does not look repeatable anywhere else than center back and the same hesitancy to spend notable money in notable areas of need on or off the field.  Smith is out there making the same sort of promises that he makes every summer, and based on what we've seen so far he's not backing them up with real moves that will pay off now.  Quite simply Padraig Smith can not return in any sporting capacity if the club expects to be taken seriously by the fans and the rest of the league.

As Burgundy Wave put it today:

In April, the Colorado Rapids had their most profitable home game in club history. Today, they broke their record transfer fee by double. There is no excuse for leaving the scoreboard at DSGP as it is. It needs to be replaced in 2027.

 Not just the scoreboard.  There's no excuse for this team to still be a moneyballing-also ran in 2027.

Stats Say Good, Eye Test Says Bad

 

Saturday night was a rough watch.  Colorado had pretty much all the play.  64% possession.  Eleven corners to none.  50 touches in the box to 8.  5 big chances to 1.  At no point did it feel like Austin was going to score unless they got lucky on a free kick or got a weird deflection on a ball.

The problem is that it didn't feel like the Rapids were going to score either.  Only one of those "big chances" really felt dangerous, and that was in a scrum in the box in the first few minutes of the game.  Otherwise it was the same going through the motions that we've seen for a few games.  The Rapids did create more chances than they have been, but there was still a dearth of good final passes to set up good shots.

The last minute PK was a gift from Austin, as there was no way we were going to score on our own in this one.  Rafa did a great job burying it, it seems like his PK issues are behind him now that he's stopped the stutter-step.  But it felt more like 2 points stolen than a win we truly deserved, even if the stats said otherwise.

This is now 10 league games in a row without scoring more than one goal, that most in a single season since a 12 game stretch in late spring/early summer 2015.  The fact that we've gotten 6 points in 3 games out of the World Cup break while only scoring 2 goals is a testament to our defense, and the (lack of) quality of our opponents.  Of course our defense is going to take a serious hit this week with the sale of Herrington (more on that later this week when it becomes official).

The Rapids get a week off with the Leagues Cup weekend, and will be back hope playing last-place KC on the 15th.  A must win, and a must win convincingly, sort of game for them.

Man of the Match: Loic Williams.  Stepped in for the suspended Holding and was nice and smooth holding down that left center back spot.  One he's going to be starting in the rest of the season now.  While the Rapids struggle to fill other positions they seem to have a nose for center backs.

A Must Win On Colorado Day

Unless we have an early Rocky Mountain Cup match in the future this will be the only time Colorado Day is a must win but it is this year.  Austin FC is in town and they are the second worst team in the West (but better than 4 teams in the East because the bottom of the East is a trash fire).  This needs to be an unquestionable 3 points for the Rapids or we'll be left playing for the Rocky Mountain and Open Cups because the playoffs will be a lost cause.  Kickoff is at 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Rob Holding (red card), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Kimani Stewart-Baynes (lower leg), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No notable surprises there.  Maziz was signed as expected today but is waiting on his paperwork (visa) before he can play.

The defense seems to set itself, maybe Thompson at RB instead of Cannon.  The real question marks are which two wingers get a shot because none of them have been impressive in this run of no firepower.

Prediction: 1-0 Colorado, goal by Rafa.  I think we get the 3 points, but its not as convincing as it should be.  Defensively we're solid but we still fail to make enough chances despite playing one of the worst defenses in the league.

Enter Youssef Maziz

The Rapids are teasing the announcement of a new addition at 10am tomorrow.  First reported by Tom Bogert and confirmed by Brenden Ploen and Burgundy Wave, this is expected to be midfielder Youssef Maziz.

Maziz is a 28 year old (as of last month) attacking midfielder who's play is mainly as a chance creator, something the team desperately needs.  Born in France he is of Moroccan decent and has dual nationality.  His only international caps are two appearances with the French U-16 team.  He joined the Metz youth academy at 15 and stayed with the club working his way up to the first team in 2017 but spent most of his time on loan in the lower French leagues until he left Metz for Belgian side OH Leuven in 2023.  OHL has been a solid mid-table team in his time there.

Youssef is available on a free transfer as he's now out of contract and is expected to sign a TAM deal.  He'll be available as soon as his visa is processed and given the current government issues with visas we probably shouldn't expect that too quickly.  I would assume he would slot into the starting lineup as soon as he's available, so I'd expect the center trio to be Ojediran, Maziz, and Aaronson.

Obviously Maziz is an unknown to all of us, but the reality of being a Rapids fan is that we're not going to go out and assign a 'name' player.  Far too often that's meant we get a Namli or a Ilic, but occasionally we find a Rafa or a Herrington.  The positive sign with this signing is this isn't a player who doesn't fit the team (at least on paper) or is coming in at a established position.  This is somebody who fills a rea hole on the team, something our summer signings haven't always been able to say.  This doesn't turn us into a contender, but it seems like a move to push us that direction.

Deja Vu

Another game against St. Louis, another Holding red card, another 1-0 loss, another Miguel Navarro man of the match performance.  If you watched the game in May at the Dick you largely saw this game in St, Louis.  It was not good.  The main differences is that the red card this time was fully justified, a bad pass back from Yapi that Holding tried to control instead of clear and it all went sideways.

Rather than spending any more time on the game with not much to talk about we're going to take a look at where we are.  Its the midpoint of the season (17 games) and we're 3 points behind either of the Chris Armas seasons.  Now, as I pointed out in June, the schedule has not bee friendly to us but the last two games have been against weaker opposition and we've been 1-1, with one goal scored and one allowed.  This is not us stepping up our game.

We've now gone 9 games scoring 0 or 1 goals.  That's the longest single season streak since 2017 where Pablo's last game in charge kicked off a 12 game run of 0's or 1's.  (Between 2023 and 2024 we went 10 games, 3 in '23 and 7 in '24, with 0-1 goals).  The last time we put two past the opposing keeper was when Messi was in town.  This team has not come from behind to take the lead in a game this season.

Meanwhile apparently Wells "exchanged words" with the St. Louis coaching staff after the game.  This one confuses me as I can't think of anything StL did during the game that the coaching staff should be that upset about.  This is a pattern developing though where Wells goes off on the refs or the other coaching staff or something when the Rapids struggle.  It makes me start to wonder if that's his response to not having answers which, isn't great.

What we seem to have is a team bereft of offensive ideas that's slowly sinking down the table.  They're compensating for that by being at the top of the fouls and cards list (though also at the top of the fouls suffered) list and the manager is all in on the strategy.  The next two games are at home against the teams and the bottom of the Western conference.  They are both must wins, and they need to be must wins where we're clearly in control and are clearly winning the game.  If that doesn't happen its hard to see how this season goes anywhere.

Man of the Match: Miguel Navarro.  Picked ip an injury in training so didn't start, but was pressed into service after the 12th minute red card.  Shortly after entering he seemed to dislocate his finger and calmly let the training staff pop it back into place, then went out and finished the game with a strong performance.

USOC Semifinal Preview

We're off to the far side of Missouri to get a sneak peak at our U.S. Open Cup semi opponents in September as the Rapids play St. Louis tomorrow night.  StL came into the Dick back in May and stole a 1-0 win on a goal both Holding and Herrington would want back.  The Rapids need to figure out if they can fix their offense, the last time we put a crooked number on the scoreboard it was on the fully working scoreboard at Empower Field.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6:30 MT.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No change on the injury front, but we get Miguel Navarro and Wayne Fredrick back from suspension.  Fredrick signed a new contract extension today, taking him through the 2029-2030 season with a club option for an additional season.  We'll have to wait until the salary drop in September to know what kind of raise he got.

I'm not sure who will get the start on the wings, but otherwise I feel good about this lineup.  Other than Herrington everyone gets a week off after this, so going back-to-back shouldn't be a problem for anyone.  I think Williams gets rewarded with another start and Herrington cycles in for Holding.  Wells had a lot of good things to say about Kosi Wednesday night so I see him starting again too.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rafa.  I can't predict the Rapids getting more than 1 until they prove they can.  Meanwhile St. Louis improve during the break and I can't see them being shut out at home.  Our defense is strong enough to keep them from running us over, but I don't see 3 points coming.