Final Game Before The Break

This long run of 18 games in  just under 13 weeks ends tomorrow with our final match before the two month World Cup break.  Tomorrow our old friends Dallas are in town and are more rested then we are, not having a midweek game.  Regardless they've struggled against us in recent years so hopefully that continues.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30pm and there's a fireworks show after the match.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

Coach Availability:

OUT: HC Matt Wells (yellow card suspension)

Yeah, the numerous yellow cards to the bench have caught up with us.  Wells has to sit out because of them and can't be involved in pregame or halftime.  I'm sure he'll set the lineup but after that its on the shoulders of assistant coach Ally Harris.

Miguel Navarro is also one yellow from suspension.

I have a feeling hat a lot of guys are going to be running on fumes after the high of Wednesday night.  We need one more game out of Rafa and Herrington (and lets hope its not the last game in burgundy black for either of them) as they're irreplaceable but I wouldn't be surprised if they don't go 90.  Everyone else is going to be on heavy rotation I expect.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  I almost put down a 2-2 draw, if the teams were coming off equal rest I'd like our chances to get a result here but with the added minutes I don't think we'll be able to keep up.

The Streak Is Broken!

Going into last night the Rapids hadn't beaten a MLS team in the Open Cup in 20 years.  They hadn't beat a MLS team in any knockout competition in 10 years*.  Well reset those counters because the Rapids pulled off a bit of an upset with a 2-0 win over San Jose that probably wasn't that close.  Goals right before half from Yapi and Navarro held up in what was a sluggish second half and we're on to the semifinals for the third time in our history and first time since the Miami team were still called the Fusion (1999).

* - The Rapids got 3rd place in the Leagues Cup after facing Philly in that game, but technically that game was recorded as a draw with Kicks From the Mark deciding who got 3rd place and the CCC spot

Early on Hansen came up with a big double-save to keep things scoreless though I'm not sure the first one was going in and I'm not sure how much he knew about the second one (which was very much on target and hit him in the shoulder) but after the first 15 minutes San Jose went somewhat quiet.  They had possession and corners but couldn't turn them into shots.  Meanwhile Colorado played its way into the game.  Rafa got a goal called back for offside (a call I still don't understand), then in the 39th minute Sealy found Yapi with a cross that he finished for a 1-0 lead.  6 minutes later it was the Earthquakes called for handling in the box and Rafa made it 2-0 heading to the half.

The second half was two tired team but Colorado was at home and had the momentum.  By the time San Jose started finishing shots it was too late and the shots they got weren't dangerous.  Nobody wanted to jinx things but it felt pretty confident the Rapids would see this out and they did.

With the win the Open Cup will be back at the Dick for the semifinal...in September.  Between the World Cup and the Leagues Cup that's the first open spot on the schedule.  September 15th or 16th the Rapids will host St. Louis while Columbus will host Orlando in the semifinals.  The two winners will face off in the final on October 21ist, hosted by the Columbus - Orlando winner.  Looking at the teams and the standings today you have to figure the East semi winner is probably the favorite given the home field advantage (particularly if its Orlando) but the Rapids are the best placed team in the standings of the four.  In fact they're the only one averaging over 1 point a game so far.

One note on the semifinal is that Nico Hansen goes in one yellow from suspension.  Its a long-time and a lot of games between now and September but we'll have to see how that plays into the lineup.  Do you start Hansen with the risk that he could pick up a yellow and be suspended for the final if we win?  Do you start Steffen knowing that Hansen would the be sure of being available for a possible final?  Nico is the only Rapid in this position, barring a red card in the semi everyone else would be available for the final if we get there.

Looking at the schedule in August/September we'll host FSL the last weekend of August, then a week layer we go to Columbus, go to Austin in midweek, and then host Montreal.  Then St. Louis in the semifinal, then we host Seattle on the weekend.  So another run of 5 games in two weeks.  After that there are only 8 games left in the season, and should we make the final it would be ANOTHER 5 games in two weeks where we host San Jose and Minnesota, go to Portland, go to the Final, and go to San Jose.

What this means is that once we get through (and win!) the Rocky Mountain Cup the week before Labor Day we may need to take stock of where we are and our realistic chances to make the playoffs and make any noise there.  If we're barely hanging on to s spot or are on the outside looking in the right play, in my opinion, is to punt on the regular season and go all in on the semifinal.  St. Louis, despite what they did to us a week and a half ago, is not a good team.  We should beat them at home, especially if we rotate the roster to put out a full strength rested side.  Then you're in a final and anything can happen.

This also plays into what moves we might make in the summer window.  If we're being honest, this team is very unlikely to win MLS Cup this year (but so was the 2010 team).  If all we had to play for was the playoffs you could see selling Herrington or Rafa if the right deal came along.  Now?  One game at home we'll likely be favored in from a final?  The Rapids can't sell them without either a loan-back-until-end-of-season option or being 100% absolutely sure they've got a equal or better replacement coming in.  And I mean a "we replaced McMath with Howard in 2016" level sure-thing, not a "we're throwing all the Djordje money at Aaronson as a replacement" move.  Otherwise you explain to Rafa and Lucas that we fully support them taking the next step, but there's no way we can sell them when this team has a shot at its first real success in 16 years.  As soon as this season is over though, we'll get a deal done.

This is already longer than I expected but I've got a couple more things.  First, so we don't end on a negative note, if you watched the broadcast of the game you saw that after Yapi's goal a can was thrown out of C38's section, hitting the San Jose keeper in the head.  This is, very obviously, completely unacceptable.  A combination of C38 leadership, Argus staff, and Commerce City police worked together to identify who threw it.  That person was pulled out of the stands, handcuffed, and escorted out of the stadium by CCPD (and presumably arrested).  Crap like that will not be allowed to stand in our section.

Second, on a better note, I have to tip the cap to Matt Wells.  10 days ago after the St. Louis loss I said tow rite off everything but the Rocky Mountain Cup and the quarterfinal, and I had real doubts about our ability to get either of those done.  Instead he took the team to Minnesota, stole a win, then went into Sandy and at least achieved the bare minimum, which was keeping the damage to a one-goal loss which allows us to win the RMC just by winning our home game.  And he did it by keeping guys enough rested that they were able to come out and control the game last night and get us a somewhat comfortable win.  Now we may collapse in exhaustion on Saturday against Dallas but really, who cares.  He got enough results in the last 3 games that Saturday really doesn't matter.  Any thing there is gravy.

Man of the Match: Darren Yapi.  Lots of choices last night but his well timed goal I think really punctured San Jose's hopes and gave us the belief that maybe was wavering after Rafa's first goal was VARed off.  That set up the second goal before half, at which point San Jose was done.

Quarterfinals

Well this is new.  This happens to be the 2700th entry in this blog and its the first time we're talking about a U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal.  The last time the Rapids made it this far was August of 2007, about 6 months before I opened this place up (USL Seattle slaughtered us 5-0 up in the PacNW).  It took a long time to get back here but this time we get to host. Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm and remember extra-time and PKs are possible late tomorrow night.

That's the upside.  The downside is that we host red-hot San Jose.  Well, they were red-hot when they win their Round of 16 match and were drawn against us, having won all their USOC games and 9 of their first 10 league matches  They then drew their next two games and have lost their last two after that.  This has roughly coincided with an injury to star striker Timo Werner.  He was OUT for their game on Saturday and the word is that he was expected back in late-May but the 'Quakes are being cautious about rushing him back.  That suggests he won't start tomorrow but might be available off the bench?

There's no update for the Rapids on the injury front but I think its a safe bet Steffen is still out and we know KDP is.  Harris was out on Saturday due to illness so hopefully he'll be available.  If so then, barring any injury in training, Steffen and KDP should be the extend of the injury report.  Kosi Thompson will be suspended after his red card against the Switchbacks however.

So the starting XI will really come down to who's rested and who isn't.  I expect Wells to try to get one more game out of Rafa's legs, and Aaronson has been rotated a bit.  Yapi and holding didn't start in Sandy so I'd expect them in, and Herrington is young and we'll probably try to get 90 more minutes out of his legs.  Hansen in net.  The other 5 though?  Anyone's guess.

The winner tomorrow will move to the semifinal in September to face St. Louis, who just beat Houston in penalty kicks.  If its the Rapids they will host the semifinal.  If its the Earthquakes they'll travel to Missouri.  The winner of the semifinal will travel to the winner of Orlando at tomorrow's Columbus-NYCFC match for the final in October.

As always, no prediction for a USOC game.  Its just too hard to tell what the focus will be.  Though that will change should we win as the semifinal and any potential final are clearly going to be a top priority.

The More Things Change...

I was planning to go into a typical writeup of the Rapids once again failing in Sandy, something the doesn't seem to change no matter how many times we change coaches or players.  However Matt Doyle summed it up nicely in his weekly recap column ay TacticsFreeZone.  Side note, go give Matt a subscription, he's doing the best job covering every team every week out there.

A couple of things I’ve been thinking about since Matchday 2 for the Colorado Rapids:

1. They have a lot of guys who, uh, let’s just say “aren’t great passers of the ball.” But they are committed to building from the back. How’s that going to work for the long term?
2. Head coach Matt Wells is very committed to not only building from the back, but to playing ultra-physical, fast and furious, high-pressing soccer. Is there going to be 1) buy-in, and 2) attrition?

He's right, on both counts.  He goes on to point out that Jackson Travis casually passing back and losing the ball led directly to FSL's first goal and the like of energy and press played a large part in FSL's second goal.  The positive side of things is that he believes (and I agree) that there has been buy-in from the roster on Wells' system so its not a desire problem, its a talent one.

Looking at those two goals, on the first Travis is just too casual with his backpass and it gets deflected and at that point everyone is out of position and scrambling.  Really, at this point, Travis shouldn't be starting.  Wells made the decision to go with a Herrington-Navarro centerback pairing and it cost us this goal.  Navarro had a solid game so maybe it was overall the best decision but it did result in FSL levelling the match.

On the second there's just too much open space.  Nobody closes down Sanabria, Aaronson is working his way over there, and he has plenty of time to whip in the cross.  Solans just finds a big space between Herrington and Holding to head it home.  Herrington was on him, then slides over towards Sanabria and Holding doesn't slide as fast leaving a big hole for Solans to sit in.

It wasn't all bad.  We started hot with a quick goal.  A Ronan corner was trapped by Aaronson and pushed back in front of goal where Fredrick hammered it home.  The problem is that after that 7th minute goal there were only two more shots on target, the rest of the game, and none after falling behind.  In fact the Rapids only have 1 goal in the final 30 minutes of a league match this season when trailing (Yapi's 62nd minute goal to level the Miami game at 2).

Part of this is because FSL completely took Rafa out of the game.  He only had 3 touches in the box and 1 shot on target.  Hard to get very far in attack when your MVP is not in the game.  My hope is that this was just a really good defensive effort and not an indication that we've pushed Navarro to hard.  We need one more game out of him on Wednesday.

The good news is that by keeping it to a one goal loss (as I predicted) then the Rapids just have to win the home game in August, by any score, to keep the Rocky Mountain Cup.  If we can't beat FSL at home then we don't deserve to keep the Cup.

Man of the Match: Wayne Frederick.  What little offense we had did run through him and of course he got the goal.  I was wrong about him, he's still developing but he's a lot better than he showed last season.

This Needs No Introduction

But we're going to do it anyway.  We all know what tomorrow is, the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup.  We're over in Sandy at KKK Slogan Field for this one (I had to resist the urge to use this as the header picture).  A reminder of the rules.  Most points, most goals, then its essentially a tie and the current holders retain the Rocky Mountain Cup.  That's us this year.  So in practice that means a one goal loss or better means we just have to win the home game in August to retain the Cup.  Anything better than that just makes the job easier.  Kickoff for the rivalry clash is at 7:30pm.

Good luck to the travelling C38 support that leave the Dick at 6:30am tomorrow.  Its never fun having to enter the dark place.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), M Alex Harris (illness), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

QUESTIONABLE: M Josh Atencio (concussion)

Miguel Navarro is still one yellow from suspension.  Atencio travelled with the team to Utah and will be available but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't start.

Not sure on the wingers or the right back, but the rest feels fairly solid.  I do think Yapi will start but we could push back into that 2-striker formation too.  Regardlss some guys need to dig deep for this on and on Wednesday for the Open Cup.  If there's nothing left for Dallas in a week, so be it.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  FSL is, sadly, a better team than us right now and they're at home.  But I do think Wells has the team in the right mentality to not get blown out in Sandy like we've seen far too many times.  Rafa gets an important goal to keep it close and we hang on with everything to get out with just a one goal deficit and et up for a win or go home type game in August.

Smash And Grab

As I predicted Minnesota and Colorado played to a 1-0 result last night.  As I failed to predict though, Colorado came out on the winning side.  For only the second time this season the Rapids lost the possession game but still managed to claim the three points.  As the saying goes, that's why they play the games.  With the win the Rapids move up into the final playoff spot (on a tiebreaker) going into the lat week before the World Cup break.

Random Thoughts:

• Last week (And before that too) I questioned if Matt Wells could adapt or if he was too wedded to his system.  Last night he came out in a 5-4-1 that morphed into a 4-2-2-2 in attack and didn't focus as much on playing out of the back.  In the post-game conference he said "To go out and play our normal shape tonight would have setting the guys up to fail". a very positive sign from Wells.
• That said, some things don't change.  Namely our physicality.  24 fouls last night, an average of 14.6 a game this season.  We're on pace for about 500 fouls this season.  The team record is 581 in 2000, 18.1/game so we probably won't hit that but this is the highest rate since 2007 (though up through 2007 foul rates were incredibly high across the league).
• A nicely worked goal by Aaronson and Navarro.  That's what we need to see out of our DPs.
• That's Navarro's 8th goal, halfway to the single-season team record, and his 12th goal involvement, just under halfway to that team record.  5 more goals will put him second all-time on the Rapids scoring list, passing Paul Bravo.  He's currently 15 behind Conor Casey for the record.
• Honestly a more fair result would have been 1-1.  Minnesota had a couple of big chances, hitting the crossbar in back-to-back shots within a minute, first by James Rodriguez and then by ex-Rapids Anthony Markanich.  They also had a goal called back due to a (clear) offside early in the second half.
• In fact the Rapids were out-possessed, out shots, out xGed, and were equal on corners.  They once again only had 2 shots on target.  But if one goes in and you pitch a shutout that's all you need sometimes.
• Shoutout to Rosenberry for a great game.  For his first start in a while he marshalled the back well.  Something you love to see.
• Herrington bounced back well from the struggles on Saturday.  He is so good.  He was named to the MLS team of the matchday.
• Miguel Navarro was the only player risking suspension for the game on Saturday and he got out without a card so everyone will be available (barring injury).
• Speaking of, Saturday is the big one.  The Rocky Mountain Cup in Sandy.  As long as we keep it to, at worst, a 1 goal loss then all we have to do is win the home match in August to retain the Cup, but I want more of a buffer than that.

Man of the Match: Nico Hansen.  A big shutout when we needed it, Hansen was well-placed on a number of Minnesota shots last night.  He also commanded his area well.  For you other old-timers he has a bit of Bouna Coundoul in him, occasionally going for short walkabouts when you wish he didn't but it didn't cost us last night.,

Rapids Start Tough Two Game Road Trip

Before we get started, the MLS Players Union annual spring salary release was today.  Given that we have 4 games in the next 11 days I'm not going to get around to covering it in detail until we reach the World Cup break, but it is out there.

Now, on to tomorrow's game.  Colorado makes the trip to the Land Of A Thousand Lakes to take on Minnesota United.  The Rapids are on a 5 game winless streak while United is coming off a home draw against Austin.  With a win Minnesota could jump to 3rd in the West, depending on other results, while a Colorado win could get them back into a playoff position.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), D Rob Holding (red card suspension), M Josh Atencio (concussion), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Hamzat Ojediran (yellow card suspension)

Also Miguel Navarro is one yellow card from suspension.  Some tough decisions are going to have to be made tomorrow.  With two big matches in the week after it I think the Rapids should punt on this match and focus on the Rocky Mountain Cup this weekend and Open Cup next Wednesday.

Unlike what I said above I expect Wells to go for it as best he can.  The fullbacks could change but the rest feels fairly solid for the XI.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Hard to see the team getting much of anything in this one, though Minnesota doesn't have a high-powered offense.  It will likely play out similar to Saturday, except without the win (and hopefully without the red card).

Punchless

Another game, another two shots on goal total (and one of them was an Aaronson free kick that almost certainly would have been off the bar if it wasn't parried), another loss.  And this against a team that was giving up close to two goals a game coming in and scoring less that one.  Its becoming clear that the league has figured out how to shut down Wells' system and he has yet to adjust.

The other talking point in this one was the Holding red card.  It was a weak call at best and completely bogus in reality.  Never should have been a red.  That said the Rapids were adrift even before the card so I don't think it changed the outcome.

With the 1-0 loss the Rapids drop to 12th in the west on PPG, tied with San Diego, and 23rd in the league over all.  They are 6 points back of the non-wild card playoff spots and their three remaining pre-World Cup break league matches are against 5th, 6th, and 7th in the West.

Random Thoughts:

• The Rapids now have 12 shots on goal in the last 5 league games, while giving up 8 goals.  FotMob is showing 9 big chances in those 5 games.  We're out possessing the other team.  Generating corner kicks, keeping the ball around the box, and yet can't turn that into quality chances and goals.
• The one St. Louis goal was a combination of some well placed bounces and some inexperienced play.  Holding got beat to a header, the ball bounced past Herrington, and Lucas learned that his speed won't always save him.  With a little more experience he's a step or two further back and shuts down the breakaway before it starts.  Then Hansen came out and got nothing but air, not even making it difficult for the attacker to go around him.  Again, a lesson learned.
• I'm not sure how Durkin's red card was a second yellow and not a straight red.  The ref had a bad night.
• FotMob also had Aaronson with the best rating on the night, which is damning with faint praise given that nobody rated 7 or better.  Its just not enough out of him though, he had two good passes in the 72nd minute that set up shots and the free kick that wasn't going to be scored and that was it.
• If Minoumgou doesn't miss the header at the end of the game we're probably having a very different discussion but he put it way off target.  For all his good ball work he needs it to turn into something more.
• Ojediran picked up a yellow so he'll be suspended on Wednesday along with Holding being suspended for his red card.
• The focus in this one should really be on Wells.  5 games into this winless streak and we've scored 3 goals in the 5 games and are on a 237' scoreless streak.  Its time to admit that his plan isn't working and change something.
• We now he to Minnesota and Sandy.  Two tough games before what is likely to be our biggest game of the first half of the year, the Open Cup quarterfinal.  At this point I'm fine if we bag the league for these next two weeks and focus on not getting blown out in Sandy (to keep the Rocky Mountain Cup alive) and beating San Jose next Wednesday.  If that means we lose in Minnesota and to Dallas at home, so be it.  Pick up the pieces after the World Cup break with hopefully a winnable semifinal at home in September.

Man of the Match: Miguel Navarro.  Nobody showed out particularly well but the other Navarro had a solid game at a position where we've been struggling.

Time To Turn Things Around

 

This is the first time back at the Dick since we lost Ryan Sabin from a medical incident at the Open Cup match.  As you can see above Centennial 38 will be remembering him in a number of ways tomorrow. Please join us.

The Rapids finally got a full week off to rest and get healthy, only to turn around and start another 5 games in the next two weeks leading into the World Cup break.  We're home against St. Louis tomorrow, on the road in Minnesota on Wednesday, we have the Rocky Mountain Cup first leg in the dark place next weekend, then back at the Dick for the USOC Quarterfinal against San Jose, and finally finishing up with a home game against Dallas.  The good news it that everyone but possibly Herrington will get almost two months off after that.

Looking at that schedule tomorrow is actually an important game.  Its probably the most winnable game of the group and its first when we're the most rested.  Its almost a must-win.  After that you have to think the focus will be on the Rocky Mountain Cup and Open Cup matches, with Minnesota and Dallas being lower priority.

This is also our first league match at our home in just under a month (since Miami was over at Empower).  Kickoff tomorrow is at the normal 7:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Josh Atencio (head), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Wayne Fredrick (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: D Jackson Travis (leg)

Hamzat Ojediran is also one yellow card from a suspension.  Travis did play last week when he was listed as questionable so I wouldn't expect him to start but certainly be on the bench.

We're still hurting for fully healthy central midfielders which is why I think we'll see some form of a 2-striker setup again.  Hansen over Steffen might be wishcasting but I think its time.  The rest feels fairly solid.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Navarro and Minoungou.  St. Louis is a bad team with only 9 goals scored in 10 games.  This is a 'get healthy' sort of game and we need to treat it that way.  Put them away early, maybe rotate some players in the second half, and don't struggle too much to get the three points.

Dynamo Power Down Rapids

Colorado stumbled into Houston on Saturday but put out a punch-less attack and succumbed to a laser shot from outside the box for a 1-0 loss.  Neither team played great, you could tell they were both at the end of a long stretch of 7 games in 3 weeks.  With the loss the Rapids are now 1-1-4 in their last 6 league matches.  With 5 games coming up in 2 weeks Colorado has to figure out how to play without their top lineup, and their top guys have to get better.

Random Thoughts:

• In each of the last 4 league games the Rapids have had over 57% possession.  They've got a combined 10 shots on goal with that possession.  They've allowed 7 goals in those games.  Its really hard to win when over 4 games you only have 3 more shots on target than goals allowed.
• This is the first real test for Wells.  Fixing this dichotomy before the long World Cup break and keeping us in contact with the group fighting to avoid the wild-card game is a must.
• Really can't complain about the goal allowed.  You would hope somebody could step up and shut the shot down but Steffen wasn't going to save it and it was just a well hit ball.
• That said, Steffen almost had a horrendous gaffe parrying a ball into the goal (it bounced just outside the line) and got caught in no-mans land again.  Even if you're not going to make Hansen the #1 giving Steffen a week or two off to get sorted out is a must.
• By halftime the Rapids were really out of midfield options.  Losing Atencio to injury when we only had 4 fully healthy midfielders meant the second half was going to be a struggle.  Losing Holding didn't help Wells' flexibility either.
• I know he's dealing with a leg injury but we need to talk about Paxten Aaronson (again).  He had the one shot on goal after the Rapids were down, but other than that you wouldn't have known he was on the field.  We need more for the price paid.
• This was an ugly game from both sides, you could really tell how tired and beat up the squads were.  I understand the need to compress the schedule around the World Cup but its hurting us.
• And with that, this is the end of far too many game previews/game/game reviews.  Barring any news I'm taking tomorrow off and maybe the whole week until the Friday preview.

Man of the Match: Noah Cobb.  Had to come in off the bench and partner with Herrington, which didn't work to open the season in Seattle.  This time they locked things down and Houston never really had a good look at goal.

Dynamo, Rapids, Running Out Of Gas

Before we get started there was some sad news from Centennial 38 and the Rapids today.  Ryan Sabin, one of C38's tailgate crew, passed away after a medical incident at the Open Cup game Wednesday night.  His Rapids family will miss him terribly and my thoughts are with his loved ones.  The club will wear black armbands to remember him tomorrow and there will be a moment of silence before the next home match on the 9th.

After 7 games the Rapids reach the end of this 3 weeks of 3 games with a trip to Houston.  Houston's trip to Commerce City started this sequence but the good news is that they've played just as many games as we have, and are equally beat up.  This is the last *scheduled* game between the teams in the regular season, but both are in the Open Cup quarterfinals and if both win in 2.5 weeks then the Dynamo would make one more trip to Colorado for the semifinal.  Both teams went 120 minutes in their Round of 16 match on Wednesday (though the Dynamo didn't need PKs) so they're equally tired at this point.  Kickoff tomorrow is ay 6:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Wayne Fredrick (leg), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Connor Ronan (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: M Paxten Aaronson (leg), M Georgi Minoungou (leg)

Yeah, that's a lot of midfield missing.  The Dynamo have 3 players out, including Vines, and one questionable.  Both teams are limping into this one.

That's every midfielder that's played at least 90 minutes this season and who's not on the injury report.  Maybe Wells goes to a 5-3-2 or something but my bet is that it will look something like this.  We need the guys like Herrington and Navarro to dig deep one more time, though if the game gets out of hand either way they'll be quick subs.  I know I said I wanted Hansen to be the starter in net, but with him plying 120 minutes plus a shootout on Wednesday and with a home game next week, I think its probably best to make that change against St. Louis in front of a friendly crowd.

Prediction: 2-2 draw.  Goals by Navarro and Yapi.  We beat this team 6-2 three weeks ago at home, but we were healthy and rested.  Neither is the case now.  I think we're a better team than them but I think we're going to run out of gas.