The Streak Is Broken!

Going into last night the Rapids hadn't beaten a MLS team in the Open Cup in 20 years.  They hadn't beat a MLS team in any knockout competition in 10 years*.  Well reset those counters because the Rapids pulled off a bit of an upset with a 2-0 win over San Jose that probably wasn't that close.  Goals right before half from Yapi and Navarro held up in what was a sluggish second half and we're on to the semifinals for the third time in our history and first time since the Miami team were still called the Fusion (1999).

* - The Rapids got 3rd place in the Leagues Cup after facing Philly in that game, but technically that game was recorded as a draw with Kicks From the Mark deciding who got 3rd place and the CCC spot

Early on Hansen came up with a big double-save to keep things scoreless though I'm not sure the first one was going in and I'm not sure how much he knew about the second one (which was very much on target and hit him in the shoulder) but after the first 15 minutes San Jose went somewhat quiet.  They had possession and corners but couldn't turn them into shots.  Meanwhile Colorado played its way into the game.  Rafa got a goal called back for offside (a call I still don't understand), then in the 39th minute Sealy found Yapi with a cross that he finished for a 1-0 lead.  6 minutes later it was the Earthquakes called for handling in the box and Rafa made it 2-0 heading to the half.

The second half was two tired team but Colorado was at home and had the momentum.  By the time San Jose started finishing shots it was too late and the shots they got weren't dangerous.  Nobody wanted to jinx things but it felt pretty confident the Rapids would see this out and they did.

With the win the Open Cup will be back at the Dick for the semifinal...in September.  Between the World Cup and the Leagues Cup that's the first open spot on the schedule.  September 15th or 16th the Rapids will host St. Louis while Columbus will host Orlando in the semifinals.  The two winners will face off in the final on October 21ist, hosted by the Columbus - Orlando winner.  Looking at the teams and the standings today you have to figure the East semi winner is probably the favorite given the home field advantage (particularly if its Orlando) but the Rapids are the best placed team in the standings of the four.  In fact they're the only one averaging over 1 point a game so far.

One note on the semifinal is that Nico Hansen goes in one yellow from suspension.  Its a long-time and a lot of games between now and September but we'll have to see how that plays into the lineup.  Do you start Hansen with the risk that he could pick up a yellow and be suspended for the final if we win?  Do you start Steffen knowing that Hansen would the be sure of being available for a possible final?  Nico is the only Rapid in this position, barring a red card in the semi everyone else would be available for the final if we get there.

Looking at the schedule in August/September we'll host FSL the last weekend of August, then a week layer we go to Columbus, go to Austin in midweek, and then host Montreal.  Then St. Louis in the semifinal, then we host Seattle on the weekend.  So another run of 5 games in two weeks.  After that there are only 8 games left in the season, and should we make the final it would be ANOTHER 5 games in two weeks where we host San Jose and Minnesota, go to Portland, go to the Final, and go to San Jose.

What this means is that once we get through (and win!) the Rocky Mountain Cup the week before Labor Day we may need to take stock of where we are and our realistic chances to make the playoffs and make any noise there.  If we're barely hanging on to s spot or are on the outside looking in the right play, in my opinion, is to punt on the regular season and go all in on the semifinal.  St. Louis, despite what they did to us a week and a half ago, is not a good team.  We should beat them at home, especially if we rotate the roster to put out a full strength rested side.  Then you're in a final and anything can happen.

This also plays into what moves we might make in the summer window.  If we're being honest, this team is very unlikely to win MLS Cup this year (but so was the 2010 team).  If all we had to play for was the playoffs you could see selling Herrington or Rafa if the right deal came along.  Now?  One game at home we'll likely be favored in from a final?  The Rapids can't sell them without either a loan-back-until-end-of-season option or being 100% absolutely sure they've got a equal or better replacement coming in.  And I mean a "we replaced McMath with Howard in 2016" level sure-thing, not a "we're throwing all the Djordje money at Aaronson as a replacement" move.  Otherwise you explain to Rafa and Lucas that we fully support them taking the next step, but there's no way we can sell them when this team has a shot at its first real success in 16 years.  As soon as this season is over though, we'll get a deal done.

This is already longer than I expected but I've got a couple more things.  First, so we don't end on a negative note, if you watched the broadcast of the game you saw that after Yapi's goal a can was thrown out of C38's section, hitting the San Jose keeper in the head.  This is, very obviously, completely unacceptable.  A combination of C38 leadership, Argus staff, and Commerce City police worked together to identify who threw it.  That person was pulled out of the stands, handcuffed, and escorted out of the stadium by CCPD (and presumably arrested).  Crap like that will not be allowed to stand in our section.

Second, on a better note, I have to tip the cap to Matt Wells.  10 days ago after the St. Louis loss I said tow rite off everything but the Rocky Mountain Cup and the quarterfinal, and I had real doubts about our ability to get either of those done.  Instead he took the team to Minnesota, stole a win, then went into Sandy and at least achieved the bare minimum, which was keeping the damage to a one-goal loss which allows us to win the RMC just by winning our home game.  And he did it by keeping guys enough rested that they were able to come out and control the game last night and get us a somewhat comfortable win.  Now we may collapse in exhaustion on Saturday against Dallas but really, who cares.  He got enough results in the last 3 games that Saturday really doesn't matter.  Any thing there is gravy.

Man of the Match: Darren Yapi.  Lots of choices last night but his well timed goal I think really punctured San Jose's hopes and gave us the belief that maybe was wavering after Rafa's first goal was VARed off.  That set up the second goal before half, at which point San Jose was done.

Quarterfinals

Well this is new.  This happens to be the 2700th entry in this blog and its the first time we're talking about a U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal.  The last time the Rapids made it this far was August of 2007, about 6 months before I opened this place up (USL Seattle slaughtered us 5-0 up in the PacNW).  It took a long time to get back here but this time we get to host. Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm and remember extra-time and PKs are possible late tomorrow night.

That's the upside.  The downside is that we host red-hot San Jose.  Well, they were red-hot when they win their Round of 16 match and were drawn against us, having won all their USOC games and 9 of their first 10 league matches  They then drew their next two games and have lost their last two after that.  This has roughly coincided with an injury to star striker Timo Werner.  He was OUT for their game on Saturday and the word is that he was expected back in late-May but the 'Quakes are being cautious about rushing him back.  That suggests he won't start tomorrow but might be available off the bench?

There's no update for the Rapids on the injury front but I think its a safe bet Steffen is still out and we know KDP is.  Harris was out on Saturday due to illness so hopefully he'll be available.  If so then, barring any injury in training, Steffen and KDP should be the extend of the injury report.  Kosi Thompson will be suspended after his red card against the Switchbacks however.

So the starting XI will really come down to who's rested and who isn't.  I expect Wells to try to get one more game out of Rafa's legs, and Aaronson has been rotated a bit.  Yapi and holding didn't start in Sandy so I'd expect them in, and Herrington is young and we'll probably try to get 90 more minutes out of his legs.  Hansen in net.  The other 5 though?  Anyone's guess.

The winner tomorrow will move to the semifinal in September to face St. Louis, who just beat Houston in penalty kicks.  If its the Rapids they will host the semifinal.  If its the Earthquakes they'll travel to Missouri.  The winner of the semifinal will travel to the winner of Orlando at tomorrow's Columbus-NYCFC match for the final in October.

As always, no prediction for a USOC game.  Its just too hard to tell what the focus will be.  Though that will change should we win as the semifinal and any potential final are clearly going to be a top priority.

I-25 Derby In The Open Cup

Tomorrow night the Rapids are going to try to do something they've never done at the Dick.  Qualify for the Open Cup quarterfinals.  The last time the burgundy boys made it past the Round of 16 they were the black and blue boys and were playing their last season at Mile High (though both USOC gamers were on the road that year) and it was the last time we beat a MLS team in this competition, taking down FSL 1-0 in Utah.  This is also the 10th anniversary of the last time we played the Switchbacks, beating them in USOC play, so its only appropriate that they're our opponents tomorrow night for this all-Colorado battle.  If Minnesota beats San Jose in the match about to kickoff the Colorado teams were be the furthest west teams left in this year's competition.  Kickoff tomorrow night is at 7pm.

I'm still not going to predict a lineup for this one.  We're on our 6th game in 18 days, with another one to come this weekend before we finally get a midweek break.  Its really going to be a matter of who has legs left to go in this one.  The Springs have only played 3 in that same time, so they'll be better rested.  I do expect Nico Hansen to get the start in goal but outside of that its an open question.

Prediction: 3-1 win.  To be blunt, tired or not, a team that ran Houston out of its place 6-3 a couple of weeks ago should no be losing to a lower-league team in the same stadium.  I'm sure the derby nature of this game will keep it tighter than we're comfortable for longer than we want but in the end the greater talent of the Rapids should prevail.  Of course, the Rapids have found ways to lose the games plenty of times in the past (Orlando, Atlanta, New Mexico...).

Colorado Rapids Forever

Today the Rapids announced the results of the 'fan activation' from the offseason where they were considering rebranding the club.  The overwhelming response (90%+) from the fans they talked to was don't change the name, don't change the colors, but updating the badge and other branding is fine.

So that's what they announced they're going to do.  We will still be the Colorado Rapids.  We still still be the burgundy boys.  We will have a new badge.  Nourse at the Post and Pollard at Burgundy Wave did get confirmation that "keeping the colors" might include slightly changing the shades of burgundy and blue but the fundamental colors will remain the same.

This is fine from my POV.  I'm not particularly attached to the logo, it was always the fallout of the botched Arsenal Colorado rebrand in 2007.  The important thing is that the Rapids will stay the Rapids and after having three different color schemes in their history they won't add a fourth (mostly).  Most clubs in the last 10 years have revised their badge due to the needs of a technological age where scaling the badge down to use on social media means complex designs get muddled.

The important thing here is really that for once they actually listened to the fans.  When I discussed this in January I really teed off on the Front Office, saying that either this decision had already been made or this would all go away and not be discussed again.  Instead they split the difference and decided, correctly, major changes would be a mistake but refreshing the identity had value.  In my defense the FO has a long history of talk without action but I welcome this change.

It sounds like due to timing with the schedule switch any sort of new badge and image probably won't be ready when the 27-28 first winter season launches, so we're looking at two years out before we see the results of this.

In other news that actually dropped last week but I was unable to get to, the Rapids have the details of their first Open Cup match of the season.  Its next Tuesday, April 14th, at 7:30pm at the Dick.  The opponent is USL Championship side Union Omaha.  The winner gets the winner of the SKC-Colorado Springs happening just down I-25 that same night.  If Colorado Springs wins then (assuming the Rapids win) then the battle of Colorado would be at the Dick.  If SKC wins and the Rapids do the all-MLS I-70 battle would take place in KC.  (If you're wondering the same things apply if Omaha wins, they'd host the Switchbacks but go to KC).  Sadly I probably won't be able to attend this one as I have to be on a flight the next morning.

Leagues Cup, No Open Cup For Rapids In 2025

US Soccer. and MLS announced the plans for the Leagues Cup and the U.S. Open Cup today (as well as confirming all 3 Canadian teams will play in the Canadian Championship as normal).  In order to avoid too much load on any team MLS made the decision that each team would only play in at most two additional competitions per season in 2025 and 2026 including the CONCACAF Champions Cup.  They also announced how those competitions would be determined.

Obviously the top competition is the CCC and any team who qualifies for it will play in it.  That includes the Rapids in 2025.

For the Leagues Cup the top 9 teams in each conference will qualify.  The Rapids finished 7th last year so will play in the 2025 Leagues Cup.  Since Vancouver qualified for the CCC and are the defending Canadian Champions they will not take their place in the 2025 Leagues Cup and will be replaced by San Diego.

16 American MLS teams will qualify for the Open Cup.  Any team not who doesn't qualify for CCC or Leagues Cup automatically qualify for the Open Cup.  Any additional spots (7 this year) will go in order of the prior year's Supporters Shield standings, excluding any CCC teams.

So every team gets at least one competitions and this year two-thirds of the league get two.

MLS Next Pro ('2' teams) will also be in the Open Cup with 11 spots.  These will go to the two independent teams (not associated with a MLS club) and nine of the twelve teams who's first teams are not in the Open Cup themselves.  San Diego doesn't have a '2' team yet so they won't be represented at all in the USOC.  The other two teams not included were decided by the 2024 MLS Next Pro standings.  Atlanta was third to bottom in the East but the two teams below them (NE and NSH) have their first teams in the competition so they're not in the USOC.  Last place in the West last year was...Rapids 2.  So Colorado won't be represented in the Open Cup by either the first or 2 team.

Also as part of this news the USSF announced all the teams in the Open Cup.  Colorado will be represented by Harpos FC (USASA), Flatirons FC (USL-2) and the Switchbacks (USLC).  Harpos and Flatirons will enter in the First Round where they're each guaranteed a matchup against a fully professions USL-1 or USL-C team.  The winners of the first round will face off in the second round, and those winners will face the remaining USL-C teams including league champions Colorado Springs in the Third Round.

We're still waiting to hear the competition format of the Leagues Cup for 2025 and 2026, but we know the league won't be taking a break for it this year, the games will happen mid-week between league games.  It does appear that MLS has cleared a 10 day spot at the end of July/beginning of August to allow a couple of games to be played, the last weekend of July all the games are Fri/Sat and the first weekend of August there are no league games.

Open Cup Tonight, USL 2 Match In June

Ok, a quick post about a chance to see 4 Colorado teams over 2 games.  There's still time to get out to the Dick tonight to see Rapids 2 take on the Northern Colorado Hailstorm in the second round of the Open Cup.  Kickoff is at 7:30 and there are plenty of tickets floating around if you need one.  A few Rapids 1 players are eligible again, the same group that was available two weeks ago, so expect them to get some time.

Then on June 2nd I've worked with Albion Colorado SC (formerly Boulder County SC) to get a C38 trip to their USL 2 game arranged.  They'll be hosting Flatirons FC, which is based here in Arvada and playing at School of Mines soccer stadium this year, but they'll be the road team on the 2nd at Peak to Peak Charter School's stadium in Lafayette.   Kickoff is at 7:30 on that Sunday, with a USWL W (women's) game kicking off at 4:30, all on the same ticket.  If you're interested drop me a message, I'm working on a group ticket package.

Along with the Colorado International Soccer Academy in Parker those are the USL 2 teams playing in Colorado this year.  So tonight you can knock off MLS Next Pro and USL 1, June 2nd two of the three USL 2 teams, the Rapids full MLs squad at many points this year, and then we just have to work the USL Championship Colorado Springs Switchbacks in at some point.

Rapids 2 In The Open Cup Tomorrow

Because of the idiotic decision by MLS to withdraw most of the primary teams from the Open Cup this year, the Rapids only representation will be Rapids 2.  Since they are a MLS Next Pro team they enter in the first round instead of the normal 3rd or 4th round entry we're used to from the first team.  That means the RapiDos will start their Cup run tomorrow night at home facing local Colorado Premier League side Azteca 5280.  At home being at the Dick, with kickoff at 7:30.  Rapids season ticket holders got free tickets and there are enough floating out there that anyone should be able to pick one up pretty easily if they want to go.

Azteca are no strangers to the Open Cup, having qualified multiple times into the first round proper.  Even making it that far is a deep run for the amateur side but this will be their first chance to play an Open Cup game inside Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

For Rapids 2 the rules of the competition this year allow Rapids 1 players to play, but they have to be under the max salary (no TAM or DP players) and have averaged less than 15 minutes in the first 4 games this season.  Colorado has made the following first-team players available for eselection:

D Sebastian Anderson

GK Adam Beaudry

D Michael Edwards

M Wayne Frederick II

D Nate Jones

F Kimani Stewart-Baynes

D Jackson Travis

This doesn't mean they'll make the roster, just that they are available.  There is a loan requirement for anyone that plays that would make it hard for them to return to the first-team is they're on the gameday roster, so there are some decisions to make.

I plan to be out at the Dick tomorrow, so expect a quick recap on Friday before or as part of the preview for Saturday's home game against the Dynamo.

Rapids Return Priso North Of The Border

Colorado made a trade today, sending Ralph Priso to Vancouver in exchange for Vancouver's later of their two first round picks next year and their natural third round pick.  They can also get up to $150K in GAM based on performance.  Tom Bogert reported there would also be a 33% sell on clause which wasn't officially announced.

This is a pretty good return for a player who clearly wasn't progressing and wasn't even making the gameday roster.  Bogert's report says Wayne Frederick had passed him on the depth chart.  So getting a first-round draft pick after being successful (apparently) with Frederick and with Bombito last season and then another pick on top of that is good business.

Priso was originally acquired as part of the trade that sent Kaye to Toronto.  Winding it back a step further we originally traded $1M in GAM and a international slot for a season to LAFC for Kaye and their first round pick.  We turned that pick into $125K in GAM and Markanich.  Markanich was traded for $75K in GAM and St. Louis's first round pick which we turned in another $75K in GAM.

So just from the Kaye trade we ended up with Kaye and $275K in GAM, plus a few games from Markanich.

We then traded Kaye for $1.025M in GAM, an international slot, TFC's 2023 first-round pick, and Priso.  The pick became Moise Bombito, and Priso has now become two more picks.

So in the end we gained $300K in GAM, Moise Bombito, and two picks, plus all the games Markanich, Priso, and Kaye played for the club.  No matter what you think about Markanich and Priso, that's some good work.  Arguably, given Smith's track record, that's better than what he would have done with the initial $1M of GAM we sent to LAFC for Kaye.

Speaking of Bombito, he was called up today for Canada for the Copa America qualifier playoff in two weeks.  He'll be available for this week's game in Seattle, but will then head to Dallas to join up with the Canadian National Team.  He'll miss our next home game against Houston as the playoff game is the same day.

Lastly today the roster rules for the MLS Next Pro teams playing in the Open Cup leaked.  Players will have to be loaned to the MLS Next Pro side from the MLS team for at least 90 days to be eligible and no DP or TAM players are eligible.  Also any players so loaned have to average less than 15 minutes a game through this weekend's MLS games.  Fernandez, Harris, Ronan Navarro, Vines, Larraz, DM, Steffen, Rosenberry, Maxso, Bombito, Bassett, Cabral, and Diack are all ineligible under those rules, and Löffelsend will be ineligible if he plays 19 minutes or more this weekend (Yapi, Lewis, and Travis could all lose eligibility if they play enough minutes in Seattle as well).

Really though, the three month loan requirement is the killer.  I can't see loaning anyone who's likely to get any real playing time this year to Rapids 2 for 3 months just so they can play in the USOC.  Its going to be Nate Jones, Wayne Frederick, or Michael Edwards that might be considered.

Open Cup and Player News

For the second Friday in a row there's notable news from the Rapids that will delay my game preview.  First, lets start with the elephant in the room.

The Rapids first team will not be playing in the U.S. Open Cup this season.  If you haven't been following the drama around the USOC in the offseason MLS informed the U.S. Soccer Federation that they were withdrawing their teams from the Open Cup and replacing them with their MLS Next Pro teams (Rapids 2 and the rest).  The USSF said no.  Under the certification for the league granted by the USSF (and FIFA) they are required to participate in the USOC.  At first we thought that was that, but a couple of weeks ago it came out that MLS was still negotiating with the USSF.  The final decision came down today.  The teams playing in the CONCACAF Champions League will not play in the USOC.  The next best 8 teams in the 2023 standings will send their first teams (including defending champion Houston) to enter in the 4th round.  The rest will send their MLS Next Pro teams entering in the 1st round.  (DC doesn't have a MLS Next Pro team, so they won't be participating either)

This, to put it frankly, is hot garbage from the league.  They are claiming schedule congestion as a primary reason but in the end it comes down to money.  MLS and even USL teams largely lose money on this tournament.  Now that shouldn't be ignored, but the answer isn't withdrawal.  Its fair for MLS to say "hey, you have to run this tournament well enough that we're not taking a notable loss playing in it", but at the same time, MLS can afford to lose a little bit playing in the tournament for the good of the game.  Taking the ball and going home because you can make more money with the Leagues Cup is a horrible move.

When it comes to the Rapids, multiple outlets have reported that they were unhappy with the initial decision to leave the USOC and, presumably, are equally unhappy with the league's decision that only RapiDos will play in the competition.  For once the club is on the right side of something like this.  The roster rules for the Open Cup this season have not been published but we know that Rapids 1 players can be loaned to Rapids 2 on short-term deals.  It will be interesting to see if some first-team players end up playing for R2 during the Open Cup, especially if they progress to the point where they're playing USL Championship teams or the MLS first teams in the competition.

On to player news.  Tom Bogert is reporting tonight that there's a deal being made to send Marko Ilic on loan to Norwegian club Sarpsborg   When he didn't show up on the bench last Saturday I wondered if the club was trying to move him.  He's an expensive player to just be playing backup and with Steffen here (and Beaudry looking like the long-term future) that's all he would be.  I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see him in Colorado again.

Needless to say, this was a top-tier bad moves by the Rapids.  Having Yarbrough, Rodriguez, and Beaudry waiting in the wings they went out and spent time scouting a new goalkeeper, then paid a top 3 transfer fee in club history (at the time) to bring him in, only to find out he put up some of the worst advanced stats by keepers in MLS last season.  They then had to go out and sign Steffen to fill the hole they created (since Yarbrough had no willingness to stay after that move).  In a year plus one game we went from Yarbrough-Irwin-Rodriguez to Steffen-Beaudry-???.  Stability that is not.  A graduate-level class on how not to build a position.

The final bit of news is the Rapids 2 announced the extension of midfielder Daouda Amadou's contract for 2024 and 2025, but the interesting part is that he's guaranteed a first-team roster spot in 2025.  The club also has option years for 2026-28.  Amadou was a big part of the success of Rapids 2 last season, but as we've seen with Remi Cabral and Yosuke Hanya, the next step is generally a year in the Championship before moving to regular first team play.  We'll see if he goes on loan this season, or if he joins the first team next year and what he's able to contribute.

SuperDraft Tomorrow!

Before we get to tomorrow's SuperDraft a word on MLS's decision to pull the first teams out of the Open Cup and play only MLS Next Pro rosters.

Disappointing

I understand the realities of the schedule and the fact that its a financial loser, especially compared to the Leagues Cup, but the USOC is the one competition all American teams play in and MLS bailing on it is short-sighted.  If I weren't already not renewing my season tickets this decision would push me towards not doing it.

Now, on to tomorrow's SuperDraft which may be more significant than most for the Rapids.  As of tonight the Rapids hold 5 picks in the 3 rounds:

2nd Pick in the 1st Round - Natural pick

4th Pick in the 1st Round - Barrios trade with Galaxy

12th Pick in the 1st Round - GAM/pick trade with Charlotte

21st Pick in the 1st Round - Markanich trade with St. Louis

2nd Pick in the 2nd Round (31st overall) - Natural pick

2nd Pick in the 3rd Round (60th overall) - Natural pick

Three picks in the top 12, 4 in the top 21.  Even in a SuperDraft that's lost a lot in recent years, that's significant.  And the league made a change to the draft rules this year, for the first time sophomores and juniors are eligible to be drafted.  Those players can choose to return to school rather than enter the league but they can't re-enter the draft until their rights expire (after two seasons).  So there are approximately 400 players eligible for selection tomorrow.

Recent history has shown Padraig Smith targeting one player in the draft, making moves to get him, and then really letting the rest of the draft go.  This year, with so many high picks and the added depth in the draft, I'm expecting to get at least two solid players, either two draftees or a draftee and trading a combination of picks and xAM for an already established player.

Normally I'd try to update here in real-time on draft day and a recap tomorrow night, but my work schedule and the fact that I have tickets to Godzilla Minus One means I might not get it all written up until Wednesday.

Open Cup Or Bust!

With the loss on Saturday it feels like the season is a lost cause, as we discussed yesterday.  That leaves the U.S. Open Cup as the only achievable goal this season, and we should go all in on it.  We know that a win tomorrow night means we'll host tonight's LAFC-Galaxy winner in the quarterfinals, and the the Rapids have never hosted 3 Open Cup games in the same season.  It would also be our first quarterfinal since 2007 (And back then we only had to win one match to make it that far).  Lastly it would be our first victory over a MLS team in this competition since beating this same FSL team in 2006.

The Rapids haven't released an injury report for this one, so I'm not even going to try to predict a starting XI.  So far in the first two rounds we've seen a good mix of regular starters and younger backups starting.  Tomorrow ill be a good indicator of what we're prioritizing at this point.  A young lineup means that Fraser and/or Smith still sees value in the league campaign and is willing to write off the USOC, a veteran heavy lineup will indicate the opposite.  I hope we see the latter.

Obviously both teams are coming off the same game on Saturday, but Salt Lake did travel home and came back to Colorado rather than staying here so they have a bit of fatigue in their legs over that (its also the shortest road trip they have, so its not too bad).  Its hard to see a major turnaround from Saturday's result though, unless the Rapids decide they really want it, and FSL decides they don't

Prediction: 2-1 loss after Extra Time, goal by Lewis.  Hard to predict anything else based on the last three games by the Rapids.  Hopefully they surprise me.

Open Rocky Mountain Cup

I was wrong about how today's draw for the Open Cup worked.  They did set the bracket for the rest of the tournament, but they still used regional groups to do it.  The Rapids were placed in a group with the three remaining teams west of them, namely the LA Galaxy, LAFC, and FSL.  And sure enough, the draw pulled out a Rocky Mountain Cup and a El Traffico matchup for the group.  The Rapids will host FSL on Wednesday May 24th at 8pm.  Yes, 8pm.  It seems like the game may have been picked up for CBS Sports' Golazo show and it needs to kick off after the earlier game finishes, including any potential overtime and penalty kicks, thus the late kickoff time.

The winner of this matchup will host the winner of the El Traffico matchup in the quarterfinals, and then the winner of that matchup will face the winner of the Central group (Austin, Houston, Minnesota, and Chicago) in the semifinals.  Hosting for the semifinals and final will be drawn after the quarterfinals.  This means the Rapids don't have to travel until the semis at the earliest, and even that would be a 50/50 coin flip.  There's never been a better chance for Colorado to go deep in this tournament.  Only one other time have the Rapids ever hosted two USOC games in the same season, and that run ended in 2014 in the infamous Atlanta Silverbacks game.  They have never hosted 3 games in the same season, and they would do that if they beat FSL.

The other interesting twist about the scheduling is that this game comes just 4 days after the Rapids host FSL in a league match, and the first of three Rocky Mountain Cup matches this season.  The teams will now play 4 times this season (not counting any possible playoff or Leagues Cup matchups) and three of those games will be in Colorado.  The U.S. Open Cup match will not count towards the Rocky Mountain Cup competition, but a rivalry game is a rivalry game, Cup or not Cup.

Overall this is a tough schedule for the Rapids.  Going back to the start of this week:

    May 6th - @LA Galaxy - Win

    May 9th - @Sacramento - Win

    May 13th - Philadelphia

    May 17th - @Atlanta

    May 20th - FSL

    May 24th - FSL

    May 27th - Cincinnati

    May 31st - @Columbus

    June 3rd - San Jose

    June 7th - LA Galaxy/LAFC (if the Rapids advance in the USOC)

    June 10th - @Orlando

Up to 11 games in 36 days, including three Eastern Conference road trips.  The good news is that 6 of the potential 9 remaining games are at home, and one of the road trips is at the end of the run where the team will get 10 days off afterwards.  Next week's trip to Atlanta is going to be tough though.  Also everyone of those teams other than FSL and potentially the Galaxy, are currently in a playoff position so none of them look like an "easy" match.

If we get through that run and are in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals or in a playoff spot I think that has to be considered a win.  If we manage both then Fraser is back in the running for coach of the year.

In the other big story there's not much new on Max and what there is isn't favorable.  The main thing is that Brendan Ploen of the Denver Post translated (with help) the statement from Max's agent, copied below:

He is very sorry and heartbroken about what happened. He sent me a text apologizing about the situation and thanking everything I’ve done for him. He will not hide,” Oliveira told the outlet. “… I talked to a lawyer and it would be ideal for him to come to Brazil. Since the investigation is in Brazil, I think he will be able to leave the United States.

That doesn't sound like somebody who's been misidentified or is completely innocent of what he's been accused of.  His agent also said he's willing to cooperate with the investigators.  I expect we'll hear shortly that Max has returned to Brazil to deal with this, and it will be a while after that before we get any resolution. 

Max Indefinitely Suspended And Other News

 I've been quiet for the last week because I've been on vacation in Washington DC.  I figured I'd catch up on the Galaxy and USOC games tonight and then be back to the regular schedule going into the Philly game on Friday.

Well, Max apparently had other plans.  If you haven't followed the breaking news today Max has been named along with many others in an investigation in his native Brazil into match-fixing across the globe.  16 people, including 7 active players, have been charged.  Upwards of 120 players are under investigation, including Max.  Specifically he's accused of taking approximately $12,000 to get booked in last September's game against the Galaxy.  He came off the bench in that match and in less than 90 seconds he was given a yellow card (though to be fair, it was a weak call that was largely because the game was getting out of control and the ref was trying to calm things down).

It appears Max was approached and agreed to not only make sure to pick up a card in that game, but also to be available to do something similar in future matches.  He also reportedly recommended Zeca, then playing with Houston, as somebody who could be approached as well.  Zeca allegedly said he wasn't expected to play in the game they wanted him to take a card in, but he would find somebody on the Dynamo who would be willing to take a bribe and get back to the organizers of this match-fixing (no report if that ever happened or not).  Zeca is now back playing in Brazil after his option was declined at the end of last season.

The team and league released statements this evening saying Max has been suspended until the investigation is complete and he has been removed from all team activities.

There's really only three options here, and two of them seem quite unlikely at this point:

1. Max was never involved, at worst he was approached and turned them down, and he never took any more or fixed anything in a game.  That seems highly unlikely with the info that's come out today but its possible.  If so he'll be reinstated and we'll move on.
2. Max was involved and fixed that game, maybe recommended Zeca, but he was doing it because some family member back in Brazil was being threatened in some way and he felt like he had no option.  I think this is even less likely, but it would explain why somebody on a $300K contract would risk his career for $12K.  Of course, somebody who willingly does this doesn't think he's going to get caught so they may not see it as a risk.  I think this is even more unlikely than him not doing it at all, but we can't rule it out.  If this is the case there's probably a road back for him but he'll still have a lengthy suspension and he may not come back in MLS.
3. The information we have is largely correct, he did it, and he got caught.  This seems highly likely based on the information we have right now.  If so that's it.  His Rapids/MLS career is certainly over, and there's a very good chance he'll never play another minute professionally as FIFA will likely issue some sort of lifetime (or near enough) ban for fixing games.

As of 7pm on May 10th, 2023 my expectation is that we'll never see Max in a Rapids uniform again.  If new information comes out I may adjust that prediction, but the team is going to have to figure out what the midfield looks like without Price, without Bassett for some unknown length of time, and without Max.  Its going to be a lot of Leyva and Priso this month.

Since we started with the most recent news we'll just keep moving backwards in time until we're caught up.  The day started with two pieces of good news.  First, Darren Yapi was named to the U.S. U-20 World Cup roster that starts next Saturday in Argentina.  I'm not sure when Yapi has to report but my guess is that he'll leave after Saturday's game against Philly.  The tournament goes through mid-June so he may be gone for a while.  Congrats Darren!

Second, the Rapids announced that they're retooling the north part of the stadium into a field-level party deck.  The work is expected to be done by the 4th of July game.  The initial idea sounded something like The Rooftop at Coors Field but the details reveal this is still going to be a more expensive ticket than most in the stadium, so I'm not sure they're going to get that same vibe.  Still, its good to see some investment going into the stadium.

Going back to last night, a big win in Sacramento!  For the first time since 2017 the Rapids are into the Round of 16 with their 4-2 win over the Republic.  Jonathan Lewis repeated what he did against the Hailstorm by putting the Rapids up in the first 5 minutes and they never trailed.  A little disappointing to give up two goals but it was a patchwork back-line of a couple of starters and a couple reserves that obviously hadn't worked together very much.  Unlike prior Rapids teams this side didn't get their heads down when Sacramento clawed back into the game and levelled it at 2 after halftime, instead they went back and retook the lead right away and never let the Republic get another headwind.

After tonight's games the USSF will hold the draw for the rest of the USOC tomorrow  The 16 remaining teams will be placed into a bracket 'March Madness' style, and that will dictate the games from now until the final.  The Round of 16 games will be played May 23rd & 24th.  That means that Colorado will have a match every weekend and every midweek from May 6th to June 3rd, a total of 8 matches in that time.  If they win their Round of 16 game the quarterfinals will be June 6th or 7th, which would extend the run to June 10th with 10 games in 39 days.

Finally we get to the league match on Saturday in LA, where the Rapids ran the Galaxy into the ground.  Connor Ronan has a hat-trick of assists in his best game so far as a Rapid and the win moved Colorado into a tie for the last playoff spot (but they lose the tiebreaker to Portland).  Combined with the USOC wins the Rapids are now on a 9 game undefeated streak and have not allowed more than two goals in a game since the season opener in Seattle.  If we can fix our offense (harder now, with the Max news) we might actually be competitive the rest of the season.

OK, this is long enough.  Back tomorrow after the Open Cup draw, plus with any updates on the investigation into Max.  With so many games this month I'll pretty much be writing a game preview, writing a game review, or watching a game every evening so don't expect much analysis beyond that.

Rapids Win An Open Cup Match, Comfortably?

Well that was unusual.  In the Open Cup match last night the Rapids largely looked like a MLS side playing a lower-league team and won the game 3-1 without too much tension.  Jonathan Lewis opened the scoring in the 5th minute but Northern Colorado levelled it right before half.  Then in the second half the home side pulled away on a pair of goals where Lewis and Max each scored one and assisted on one.

Its great to see Lewis get on the board finally, and credit to Max particularly for the assist on Lewis' second which was a creative backheel through the backline that Lewis ran onto.  It was also good to see a mixed lineup put out there, with some starters like Abubakar and Maxsø  and younger players like Anderons and Markanich.  We also got our first look at Ilic.  It was clear we were taking this one seriously when after goin up 3-1 we subbed in Barrios and Ronan.

Today the draw for the next round was held and the Rapids were in a group with LAFC and USL Championship sides Sacramento Republic and Monterey Bay FC.  Both USL sides were drawn as hosts and Colorado was matched up with Sacramento, who made the USOC final last year before losing to Orlando, taking out SKC, the Galaxy, and SJ along the way.  They won't be intimidated hosting a MLS side.  The game will take place either May 9th or 10th.  The Rapids play the Galaxy in LA on the 6th so my guess is that they'll stay in California and try to get the game scheduled on Tuesday.  They then come home to face the Union the following weekend (who themselves are playing an away USOC game in Minnesota midweek after being on the road the prior weekend).

Also just before last night's game Tom Bogert, now at The Athletic, reported some details about the Leyva loan.  The reason the odd number of $92K of GAM was included in the deal was a nice bit of accounting work by the Rapids FO.  They got Seattle to agree to keep $92K of Leyva's salary cap hit, which allowed the Rapids to roster him on the supplemental roster instead of taking a senior roster spot.  In return we agreed to compensate the Sounders for that salary cap hit by giving them the same amount ion GAM.  So in the end the load deal is really just for a 3rd round pick in 2025, which is nothing.

Platte River Derby Tomorrow Night & Player Moves

Before we get to the abbreviated game preview for tomorrow night's Open Cup match the Rapids made two roster moves in the last 24 hours.  First, before the window closed last night, Colorado made a deal to bring Danny Leyva on loan from Seattle until the summer window opens on July 5th, with the option to extend the loan until the end of the season.  There is no option to acquire him permanently in the deal.  In exchange the Sounders will get $95K in GAM and our 3rd round pick in 2025 (assuming the 3rd round still exists in 2025).

Leyva is a defensive midfielder that is stuck behind at least a couple of top players in Seattle, but is good enough to be getting time in MLS.  He's been on the fringes of the U.S. U-20 team and is likely hoping to show himself off in the hopes of making the World Cup squad later this year.  He's also eligible to play for Mexico if he files for a one-time switch.  Presumably the Rapids see him as filling some of the hole Price's injury has left in in front of the back line.  The short length of the loan is unusual though, but the Rapids felt that with only 12 games left in league play once the window opens this summer they had to make a move now.

That statement, given to Brenden Ploen of the Post, says more about the Rapids goals than anything we've seen this year.  They openly acknowledge that there are only 12 games left (about a third of the season) once the window opens, yet they didn't really solve our left back or striker issue in the window that closed last night (Gersbach does not appear to be an answer).  And those 12 games don't include the Leagues Cup competition, but those games weren't even mentioned in the statement, which suggests they aren't going to be a concern for the club.  Its harder and hard to expect anything out of the Rapids in 2023.

Today Colorado also signed Rapids 2 midfielder Marlon Vargas to a short-term deal as allowed under the roster rules.  This is very likely to allow him to play in tomorrow night's Open Cup match.  I wouldn't expect to see him in the 18 for any MLS league matches.

Speaking of tomorrow night, the newly named Platte River Derby will mark the first matchup between the Northern Colorado Hailstorm and the Colorado Rapids first team (Rapids 2 have played the Hailstorm in each of their two preseasons).  The winner gets a trip to the 4th round of the Open Cup.  The Rapids haven't won an Open Cup game since their victory over Oklahoma City in 2017, having lost to USL Nashville in 2018, USL New Mexico in 2019, and Minnesota United in the 4th round last year (we got a by to the 4th round due to qualifying for the CCL).  They haven't beaten a MLS side in thje Open Cup proper since beating the Fire...in 2006.

Its always tough to predict the lineup for these early round games.  I fully expect Ilic to get the start in net, but otherwise we could see a real mixed lineup.  If Bombito or Keita are healthy I'd expect them to start at CB, we could see Anderson and Gersbach at the outside back positions, and I'd expect to see Harris in attack, probably along with Yapi.  Vargas will likely get a start as wekk, and Leyva could easily be on the bench.

I'm going to predict a 2-1 in for the Rapids, no offense intended to the Hailstorm but MLS backups should be at least USL League One quality.  If they aren't they shouldn't be on a MLS roster.  The winner of this match will hold bragging rights to the Centennial State.  Both teams have beaten the Switchbacks twice in Open Cup play, so the victor will be able to claim a clean sweep to the state with an undefeated record.

Open Cup Details

Earlier in the day on Saturday the Rapids announced the details of their U.S. Open Cup third round game against Northern Colorado Hailstorm.  The game will be played two weeks from tonight, on the 26th, at 7pm.  All season-ticket holders will get a complimentary ticket to the game.  There will be either a limited or no real organized tailgate from C38, based on past USOC games, but I'm sure the regular crowd will still gather in the normal tailgate spot before the match.

A New Rivalry Dawns In The Open Cup?

Tonight the draw was made for the third round of the U.S. Open Cup, where the Rapids enter the competition.  Colorado was put into a group with other regional teams including FSL (though MLS teams can't be matched up in the third round), Phoenix rising, New Mexico United, Las Vegas Lights, and after a repeat of their upset over the Switchbacks last year, the Northern Colorado Hailstorm.  Last night the Hailstorm went down to the Springs and beat the Switchbacks 3-1 after extra time.

The Rapids were the first team drawn for the group, earning hosting rights to their match (Northern Colorado didn't submit a bid to host due to their ongoing stadium delays).  After Vegas and New Mexico were also drawn as hosts the next team out was FSL.  Since, as mentioned, MLS teams can't be matched up in this round FSL was bounced down a spot to travel to Las Vegas.  The next team out?  The Northern Colorado Hailstorm.  That's right, Colorado will face Northern Colorado for the first time competitively.

This is the Hailstorm's second season, and in both preseason they've hosted Rapids 2, but this is the first competitive match for either Rapids 1 or 2 against the new team in the state.  The game will be played either Tuesday April 25th or Wednesday April 26th at the Dick.  The winner moves on to the 4th round where once again a regional group will be created with a random draw in the group (at which point MLS teams can face each other).  The Rapids haven't won a U.S. Open Cup game since their 3-2 win over OKC in 2017.  That was also the last time the Rapids advanced in a knockout competition of any sort.  This is a chance to get this Open Cup campaign off on a good foot, playing at home against a squad two levels below them.

Rapids Deliver On-Brand Loss In Open Cup

Colorado restarted their game against Minnesota at noon today, and for that next almost 70 minutes of game time kept United off the scoreboard.  Of course there was almost 73 minutes plus stoppage left in the game.  Worse yet, Minnesota had gone down to 10 men a few minutes before they scored the winner.

I can't speak much to the game, being in the middle of the workday I could only track the score and see highlights later.  In general though Fraser brought them out in a formation designed to conserve energy and minimize chances as with another game in 48 hours he didn't want to wear the team out.  This left us relying on our attackers to make the most of their few chances...and they didn't.  Combined with some questionable defending at times it was a recipe for the Rapids finding yet another embarrassing way to blow a USOC match.

It will now be at least 17 years since the Rapids have beaten a MLS side in the Open Cup.  They have lost their last 7 Open Cup games on the road.  Its also been 5+ years since we've won a knockout game/series (the last time we did was beating the Oklahoma City Energy in the 4th round of the 2017 USOC).  In short when the chips are down, we fold.

Next up, in 48 hours (almost to the minute from the end of the game today) top of the table LAFC.  At least it's at home?

Open Cup Game Postponed Until Noon Tomorrow

After getting 19 minutes in and each side scoring (Mezquida for the Rapids) the game went into a lightning/tornado/rain/hail delay and its just been determined there's no chance of getting the playing surface ready to paly before city ordinances kick in.  Events at the stadium have to start by 10:59pm CT (9:59pm MT), which is 20 minutes from now.  So the game will be restarted in the 19th minute with the score 1-1 at noon MT/1pm CT tomorrow.  The game should be streaming on ESPN+ again at that time.

Open Cup Tomorrow

The Rapids are in Minnesota tomorrow night for the U.S. Open Cup 4th Round.  The good news is that the game will be on ESPN+ with no blackouts.  The bad news is that this is the Rapids in the USOC, so we kind of know how this is going to go.  Robin Fraser is sating all the right things about taking it seriously, but he said that about the CCL.  And Hudson said that about the Open Cup (not sure Casey said it about the Open Cup in 2019), and before that Pablo said it, and before that Smith.  Despite all that, we've rarely acted like we're taking it seriously, losing to teams like New Mexico, Atlanta (pre-MLS), Nashville (pre-MLS), and Orlando (also pre-MLS) in the past.  Oh, and Minnesota (pre-MLS).  You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time we beat a MLS team in the tournament.

So, yeah, I don't have high hopes for tomorrow.  To be honest though, this would be a year to blow it off.  Our upcoming schedule is tough, we're in a bit of a hole, and out injury report is not good.  I expect to see guys like Yapi and Anderson get significant minutes tomorrow.  One player we won't see is Zardes, who's last appearance for the Crew was in their 3rd round loss which means he's cup-tied and can't appear for us.

I never make a score prediction on the USOC, since we really don't know what kind of lineup we're going to see, but I will go on record in predicting a loss.