Wednesday, January 31, 2024

A Trade, A Group Reveal, and A Signing?

A busy 1-2-3 day for the Rapids.  First up they traded the rights to Oliver Semmle, their 2nd round pick from the 2023 Superdraft to Philly for their 2nd round pick in the 2025 draft.  Semmle never signed for Colorado and spent last season starting in net for Lousiville City.  Philly then signed him as a backup after the trade.

After that the Leagues Cup groups were announced and Colorado's has a very green tinge to it.  As the original MLS green team they're in a group with Leon of Liga MX and the Portland Timbers, two teams who primary color is green.  They'll play the Timbers in Portland and Leon at home in a renewal of the Marcelo Balboa derby.  'Celo played for Leon before joining the Rapids in the inaugural season.  The teams also met in the Rapids first ever international game in 1998 back in the old CONCACAF Champions' Cup.  In the home and home series Colorado actually won the leg in Mexico 1-0, but lost the home leg 4-0.  Dates have not yet been announced.

Finally Burgundy WAve, Tom Bogert, and others are reporting that the deal for Lamine Diack is done.  Its expected that the deal will match the earlier rumors, a 6-month loan with an option to buy.  I'm still not overly impressed by the deal but we'll see what gets announced.

Monday, January 29, 2024

Rapids Win Preseason Match and Loan Navarro

Colorado played a scrimmage against Liga MX side Querétaro F.C. today and came out on top 5-1.  They started arguably their best XI of Cole Bassett, Moïse Bombito, Jonathan Lewis, Jasper Löffelsend, Andreas Maxsø, Djordje Mihailovic, Rafael Navarro, Connor Ronan, Keegan Rosenberry, Zack Steffen, and Sam Vines and looked much better than last week.  The game was played as four 25 minute periods.  Bassett and Galvan each got a goal in the first two periods, then Harris got a brace with a Yapi goal in-between in the final period (which is also when Querétaro scored).  Colorado will play one more scrimmage in Mexico on Friday before coming home for a bit next week.

Earlier in the day the team completed the loan of Miguel Navarro to Tallares.  As previously reported its a year-long loan with an option to buy.  I'm assuming the option, or possibly a lower negotiated price, will be taken and Navarro will never play a game in a Rapids uniform.

Friday, January 26, 2024

Catching Up On The First Full Week Of PReseason

Well its been a week.  For me I mean, not the Rapids.  Finally got a chance to catch up.  After the Sam Vines news on Monday we had a preseason scrimmage, a player signing and loaning, and a rumor of another signing.

On Tuesday the Rapids played Mexican second-division side Atlético Morelia FC and lost 3-1.  This has started the normal worries in the Rapids fanbase.  Should we really be losing to a second-division side?  Meh, I'm really not worried.  It was the first game with a new coaching staff and a bunch of new players, Vines didn't play (just got to camp), Mihailovic didn't play (slight knock), Maxso and Ronan only played in the second half, which reportedly we looked much better in, etc.  If you're wondering Rapids 2 player Yosuke Hanya was the only player not under contract who got time.

On Wednesday Colorado announced they had signed Remi Cabral, Kevin Cabral's twin brother, to a contract from Rapids 2.  Then they immediately loaned him to Phoenix in the USL Championship for the season.  Remi is the reigning MLS Next Pro Golden Boot and the Rapids clearly feel like he's ready to step up to the next challenge.  The Championship is seen as a level above Next Pro.  We have the right to recall him at any time should we feel the need.  Since he's on loan for the season he won't take up a roster or international spot.

Then finally yesterday Tom Bogert at the Athletic reported that the Rapids are close to signing defensive midfielder Lamine Diack from Ligue 1 side Nantes.  He's a 23 year old Senegalese international and the rumor is that it would be a 6-month loan with a purchase to buy.  Essentially the same deal we had for Ilic last season.   We've also looked at Portuguese d-mid Leandro Lopes of Cercle Brugge, English d-mid Issac Hayden, and Kellyn Acosta, but according to Tom we prefer Diack because of his youth an potential.

This feels like the first "classic" Rapids move of the offseason.  By which I mean we're taking a flyer on a young player on the hope that his potential pays off, we're doing it as a loan, and we're not filling a critical position with a known option.  The other three players we've considered all have 100+ appearances in leagues roughly equal to MLS (Belgium top-flight, the Championship, the EPL, or in MLS) or better.  Diack has 52 appearances in the Macedonian top division, 34 in the Turkish second division, and 26 in the Turkish top-flight.  He has yet to appear for Nantes since being loaned to them this past summer (Nantes has an option to buy which they would have to exercise before they loaned him to us).  The whole "loan for 6 months and then buy" didn't work well for us last summer with Ilic and I don't think it will work well here either.

If this deal goes down as described its a step back from what has been a great offseason by Rapids standards.

Monday, January 22, 2024

Welcome Back Sam Vines!

Colorado made the very well known signing of Sam Vines official today, announcing that he's been signed to a 4 year contract.  The headline for the press release said that the Rapids acquired him from Royal Antwerp, but the text mentioned him signing, nothing about a transfer fee.   If there was one it was probably minimal, since Vines would have been out of contract this summer.  

Sam will also wear a new number, as the Rapids put together a nice "handoff" video of Drew Moor putting Vines' new jersey in his locker with Drew's old number 3 on it.  It makes me think if #3 is going in the same category as #17 for the Rapids.  Other than the year after Balboa retired, when backup goalkeeper Preston Burpo wore it for the season, the #17 has been held back and only given to long-time homegrown player Dillon Serna.  It feels like maybe 3 and 17 will only be given to players that have more of a connection to Colorado than just a contract.

There's also been multiple reports that Colorado is preparing to loan LB Miguel Navarro to Tallares in Argentina.  Navarro was acquired as part of the trade for Gutman and was expecting to come here and start as he fights for a spot on the Venezuelan National Team for this summer's Copa America.  Now that Vines is back and the clear starter Colorado is finding a place he can go and play.  The rumors are than the loan is for the full season with an option to buy.

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Off To Training Camp With Three Draftees

The Rapids left for Mexico today, but not before a couple of transactions.  First, the final part of the Steffen move, sending Yarbrough's rights to San Jose, was finalized with us getting San Jose's 3rd round pick in return.  Then Colorado signed 3 (well technically 2) of their draftees to MLS contracts.  Midfielder Wayne Fredrick signed a three year deal with an option for 2027.  Defender Nate Jones (out of Washington!) signed a one year deal with three option years.  Forward Kimani Stewart-Baynes, who was already on a Generation Adidas deal with the league, was revealed to be on a three year deal with one additional option year.  The other three draftees, defender Anderson Ross and forwards Palmer Ault and Gunnar Studenhofft will be returning to school but the Rapids retain their rights for two years.

Colorado also released a list of the players with the team in Mexico.  Along with the 29 signed players (but not Sam Vines, yet) there are two Rapids 2 players and one trialist.  Vines is back in Colorado so I'm guessing its just a matter of time before the deal is signed and he flies down to join the team.

The two Rapids 2 trialists are two midfielders, Daouda Amadou and Yosuke Hanya.  Both played well in the successful Rapids 2 season last year, with Hanya in particular making a big impact.  I doubt either of them are going to be signing a first-team contract any time soon, but this will allow the staff to get a real good look at them.  The trialist is GK , most recently with SKC 2.  Presumably he's beling looked at as a backup for Beaudry on Rapids 2, I see no way he's being evaluated for the first-team roster.

There are two signed players not in Mexico.  First is Daniel Chacon, who was signed from Rapids 2 in June and loaned to Alajuelense in Costa Rican side.  He blew out his ACL while playing for them and is continuing his recovery in his home in Costa Rica.  Second is Aboubacar Keita, who was signed to a new multi-year contract in August.  He's currently training with TSV Hartburg of the Austrian Bundesliga.  You have to assume that's a precursor to a move to Austria, otherwise the Rapids wouldn't approve it.  Hopefully we can get back the equivalent of the $300K of GAM we traded to the Crew for him back in the 2022 preseason.  He's made 0 appearances for the Rapids over the two seasons he's been here due to a combination of injuries.

So here's the full camp roster.  The press release said we have 3 Designated players, 5 Homegrowns, and 7 International players.  We have 5 players on this roster that came through the Rapids Academy as homegrowns, but we have 3 others who we traded for and at least up to this point a traded homegrown could still be considered a homegrown.  I don't know if that's changed or if the press release was trying to focus on the local kids.  Until that's clarified I've put a (?) after the Homegrown label on the other 3.  I've also count 8 internationals based on last season, so my guess is Galvan, who's been here the longest, has gotten a green card but that's a pure guess.  I'm not counting Löffelsend who was reportedly back home working on his green card and who is presumably far enough along in the process to not count as an international.

(Underlined = Trialist, Italics = Rapids 2)

Goalkeepers:
Ethan Bandry
Adam Beaudry - Homegrown
Marko Ilic - International
Zack Steffen

Defenders:
Lalas Abubakar
Seb Anderson - Homegrown
Moise Bombito - Generation Adidas
Michael Edwards - Homegrown(?)
Alex Gersbach - International
Nate Jones
Andreas Maxsø - International
Miguel Navarro
Keegan Rosenberry

Midfielders:
Daouda Amadou
Cole Bassett - Homegrown
Omir Fernandez - Homegrown(?)
Wayne Fredrick
Braian Galvan - International(?)
Yosuke Hanya
Oli Larraz - Homegrown
Jasper Löffelsend
Djordje Mihailovic - Designated Player
Ralph Priso - Homegrown(?)
Connor Ronan - International
Sidnei Tavares - International

Forwards:
Kevin Cabral - Designated Player, International
Calvin Harris - Generation Adidas
Jonathan Lewis
Rafael Navarro - Designated Player, International
Kimani Stewart-Baynes - Generation Adidas
Darren Yapi - Homegrown

Monday, January 15, 2024

Updating My International Signing Rankings

Just about two years, during an offseason that had (at that point) seen few signings from outside U.S. soccer, I wrote a column that reviewed the international singings that the Rapids had made since Padraig Smith took over as GM/team President.  There was one discussion last month about how we well do in international signings so I thought now would be a good time to updated it and add in the signings in the last two years.

A quick explanation of the parameters we're covering.  These are players who came to the Rapids from a team outside the U.S/Canada.  Not just internationals but also Americans (Yarbrough was on the last list, and Steffen and Mihailović will be on this one).

Here's a quick recap of the categories and where the players fell two years ago.  Players marked with an * will have their ranking updated in this article, but otherwise look at the prior article for the details on the others.

Group 1: The question marks, because we haven't seen them yet:
Michael Edwards
*Max

Group 2:  The failures, no sugar-coating it, these were bad to horrible signings:
Stefan Aigner
Yannick Boli
Joe Mason
Nicolas Benezet
Younes Namli

Group 3: Replacement level MLS players or overpaid for their decent production:
Giles Barnes
Johan Blomberg
Tommy Smith
Edgar Castillo

Group 4: Solid contributing players worthy of the international spot (eventually):
*Lucas Esteves
Danny Wilson
*Braian Galvan

Group 5: Top signings:
Jack Price
William Yarbrough

Now, on to the new and updated players:

Group 1: The question marks, because we haven't seen them yet:
Djordje Mihailović, Zach Steffen, Sam Vines, 2024 winter - Obviously, we haven't seen them play yet (in Vines case, haven't seen him play yet since being in Europe).

Sidnei Tavares, 2023 summer - 5 appearances and 300 minutes on a last placed team isn't really enough to judge, but its not looking good

Group 2:  The failures, no sugar-coating it, these were bad to horrible signings:
Max, 2022 winter - Our first revision from two years ago.  Max hadn't played yet for the Rapids when I made this list originally.  Now he played, showed a little, got busted for potential match-fixing and got sold.  For $1M that's solidly in the failure category.

Alex Gersbach, 2023 winter - Signed to replace Lucas Esteves at left back Gersbach started the opening game of the 2023 season, and got absolutely smoked by the Sounders in a 4-0 loss.  He had the home opener off then started the next week in aa 1-0 loss.  He wouldn't see the field for the first team in league play again until mid-May when he started against Atlanta, a game we lost 4-0.  That's a -9 goal differential for a left back.  He didn't play another minute of first-team action last year and the team has made not one (Gutman), not two (Navarro), but now three (Vines) left back acquisitions to try to fill the hole.

Felipe Gutiérrez, 2022 summer - Honestly when I was making this list I saw his name and had to ask "who?", before I remembered our midseason loan pickup.  848 minutes, 2 assists, 0 goals, almost no impact.  Hard to call it anything but a failure.

Marko Ilić, 2023 winter - Brought in on loan to replace Clint Irwin as the backup and push Yarbrough, the pushing part seemed to work as Yarbrough had a good season last year.  But then we paid a transfer fee to buy him, replaced Yarbrough as a starter, and Ilić put up some of the worst advance stats in the league last season.  So much so we went out and signed Zack Steffen as the starter.  This was a badly handled moving on from Yarbrough.

Rafael Navarro, 2023 summer - Navarro was our big signing of the summer window, on loan with a team record $5 million purchase clause.  He's here until June 30th this year and certainly has an opportunity to move out of this category.  1 goal on 888 minutes over 10 starts is not any sort of success from a premier signing, even if he got no service.

Sam Nicholson, 2022 summer - Sam was a fan-favorite and a solid contributor in his first stint in Colorado.  In his second stint he was still a fan favorite, but it was clear the league had passed his game by.  You can never go home again, right?

Group 3: Replacement level MLS players or overpaid for their decent production:
Lucas Esteves, 2021 summer - I had listed Esteves in Group 4 on a small data set in the first rankings and even then I felt like it might have been too soon to put him there.  Turns out it was and he fell back to being a group 3 player.  He was good enough on the field but it sounds like he wasn't the best in the locker room.

Braian Galvan, 2020 summer - Hard to believe that Galvan has been here for 3.5 seasons.  It feels like he should have more than 4 goals and 4 assists in his 53 appearances and over 2000 minutes.  Plus he's shown himself to be a bit of a hot-head.  So I moved him down from group 4 to Group 3.

Collen Warner, 2020 summer - Somehow I missed Warner the last time around.  Probably because I forgot he had 5 appearances in Denmark before signing with the Rapids, so even though he's essentially a career MLS guy he was signed from a non-U.S. team and should have been included.  He was your basic replacement-level MLS player with us, provided veteran leadership, and had some time with his hometown team.  Pretty much the definition of a Group 3 guy.

Andreas Maxsø, 2023 winter - A lot was expected of Maxsø when he was signed as a DP, and unfortunately we didn't see much of that last season.  Of course we didn't see much of anything from anyone last season so its hard to tell how much of his skill was lost in that disaster of a year.  He's now been bought down to a TAM-level player, and with some more help (Vines) and hopefully better leadership we'll see more out of him this year.

Group 4: Solid contributing players worthy of the international spot (eventually):
Connor Ronan, 2023 winter - One of the few bright spots last season, Ronan came in and put up 10 assists, which would be a good number for this team in good years.  If he can do it again he could easily make the jump to Group 5 joining his former Wolves teammate Jack Price.

So since summer of 2017 we've signed 28 players from teams outside the domestic scene.  They break down like this:

Group 1: 5
Group 2: 11
Group 3: 8
Group 4: 2
Group 5: 2

A 40% failure rate is quite bad.  48% if remove the group 1 players since they're unknowns.  Since the last time I did this list two years ago the only new players to be replacement-level or better are Maxsø and Ronan.  If you want a reason the last two years have been so bad, that's a large part of it.

This might be why the focus this offseason has been on players who have been successful in the past in MLS.  Every one of our signings so far have either been players from other MLS teams or bringing home players who moved to Europe after successful MLS runs.  This seems to have worked for us in the past, our 2010, 2016, and 2021 offseasons (our most 3 successful seasons) were very focused on players already known in U.S. soccer circles, either MLS players or Americans playing overseas.  We'll see if the streak continues.

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Welcome Back Sammy Dimes?


The biggest surprise of the preseason hit today when the Denver Post reported that the Rapids are in final negotiations to bring Sam Vines back.  He's expected in town in the next day or two to take his medical and finalize the deal.  Vines is reportedly in the last year of his contract and this will be a new deal (talk says 4 years).  Given that he has less than 6 months left I'm assuming whatever fee we might have paid is fairly minimal.  The Rapids all but confirmed the move with a tweet about "cooking up a 13 course meal".  As you can see above, Sam wears #13.

Vines left for Royal Antwerp in the summer of 2021 and was a regular for them until injuries derailed his time there.  e broke his leg in training the day before the 2022 World Cup squad was announced, one he had a high chance of making (since Shaq Moore made it) and missed the rest of the season. Even after recovering he's had a hard time getting regular play.  He featured in the two Champions League qualifiers Antwerp played in August, but then a clerical error led to him being left off the roster for actual Champions League play.  A knock had him miss the early pat of the season, but he managed to get back on the field for Antwerp's two games around Christmas before their winter break.

Burgundy Wave reported the Rapids approached him about returning and he wasn't interested, further clarification today was that approach was in the summer.  Its somewhat understandable that somebody who thought he would be playing in the Champions League would pass.  Now that he's not on that roster and struggling to get playing time making the move back to MLS probably makes more sense.

He is, obviously, a first-game starter at LB for the Rapids.  While this move may not have been in the works when we traded Gutman for Navarro, having both Navarro and Vines at LB is good depth (the less said about Gersbach the better).  This is a very unexpected but great move by the FO.

Preseason officially started today so Vines will be a bit late arriving, but he needs the least amount of time to adapt out of all the new players.  I know he rehabbed his broken leg for at least part of the time here in Denver and of course his family is still here, as is his future in-laws.

While we're on the preseason subject, Colorado announced their preseason schedule and its the same as last year.  Physicals and other prep work this coming week here in Colorado, then off to Mexico for a while, a quick trip back home for a few days, then off to Florida up until the weekend before the season starts when they come home to Colorado.  During their times in Mexico and Florida they'll play 6 closed door friendlies.  In Mexico they'll face Liga MX side Querétaro FC along with Liga de Expansión MX sides Atlético Morelia and Atlante FC.  In Florida they'll play CF Montréal and Orlando City SC, along with USL Championship side Hartford Athletic 

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Löffelsend Trade Official and New Homegrown

Today the Rapids announced the reported trade for Jasper Löffelsend.  The trade was as reported, an international slot and a draft pick, with up to $100K in GAM in performance triggers.  A nice little addition, Löffelsend is currently back in Germany finalizing his green card so he won't need an international slot.

Colorado also announced the signing of Rapids 2 GK Adam Beaudry to a homegrown contract for the next 4 seasons, with team options for 2028 and 2029.  Beaudry has long been talked about as the next big homegrown signing and will apprentice under Steffen for the next couple of years.  Having the two of them under long-term contracts will give us coverage if one of them makes the jump to Europe.

That's the last of the significant rumors covered.  While we could still be working on other deals I think we have a decent idea of the roster that will open camp this weekend (players report on Saturday).  Here's the breakdown of the players under contract, followed by our list of draftees. We currently have 27 players under contract and 5 other draftees:

(You'll notice I'm not marking internationals. That's too hard to track this early in the off-season with the green card process going on)

Goalkeepers:
Adam Beaudry - Homegrown
Marko Ilic
Zack Steffen

Defenders:
Lalas Abubakar
Seb Anderson - Homegrown
Moise Bombito - Generation Adidas
Michael Edwards - Homegrown
Alex Gersbach
Aboubacar Keita - Homegrown
Andreas Maxsø
Miguel Navarro
Keegan Rosenberry

Midfielders:
Cole Bassett - Homegrown
Omir Fernandez - Homegrown
Braian Galvan
Oli Larraz - Homegrown
Jasper Löffelsend
Djordje Mihailovic - Desingated Player
Ralph Priso - Homegrown
Connor Ronan
Sidnei Tavares

Forwards:
Kevin Cabral - Designated Player
Calvin Harris - Generation Adidas
Jonathan Lewis
Rafael Navarro - Designated Player
Kimani Stewart-Baynes - Generation Adidas
Darren Yapi - Homegrown

Draftees:
D Nate Jones
D Anderson Ross
M Wayne Fredrick
F Palmer Ault
F Gunnar Studenhofft

Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Goal Bassett re-signed, and a trade with FSL?

As mentioned yesterday Bassett has signed a new 4-year deal through the 2027 season.  Its essentially a 3-year extension on his current contract that would have run out after the 2024 season, but now he'll play this year at his new contract level.  

As Burgundy Wave first reported, this contract will be a U-22 Initiative contract.. Being signed under that program is unusual, as only players who do not turn 23 or older in the calendar year can sign such a contract (Bassett turns 23 this year) and only new players to the league or homegrown players signing their first or second contract are eligible (this is Bassett's third contract).  Somehow, the rules are being changed and that means Bassett's salary cap hit will be at a reduced number at $200K rather than his actual contract, which is a nice perk.

This is an obvious and great move for the Rapids.  Bassett has the longest tenure on the team, being the only player who played in 2018 left on the roster, and despite that he's still only 22 right now (Rosenberry, Abubakar, and Anderson would join the squad in 2019)..  While I'm sure he still wants another European shot, this way he has some safety and we have the ability to get a return on him if he moves.  If he doesn't move and becomes a lifetime MLSer then he has a chance to break a number of team records.  Win-win all the way around.

Matt Pollard at Burgundy Wave is also reporting that Colorado has traded for Jasper Löffelsend from FSL for an international slot this year and a 2nd round pic in next year's draft.  Incentives could have up to $100K of GAM going to the dark place as well.  This is the second time I've heard this about Löffelsend in the last week so where there's smoke there's fire.  Löffelsend is a German defensive mid who came here for college at Pitt and was drafted in 2022 by FSL.  He does require an international slot then.  He's had 51 appearances over two seasons with 34 starts.  He's buried on the depth chart and there are some who think he's a legitimate starting 6 in MLS.  I'm not sold on him at that level yet, my hope is that this is a depth move and we still plan to go get a starting 6.

Once this move appears, or doesn't, or we get to Friday I'll break down our current roster before players report this weekend.

Monday, January 8, 2024

Mihailovic,Max, and Bassett

A quick post before tonight's National Championship game (Go Dawgs!).

The Rapids made the Mihailovic  signing official today, as we expected.  He's signed as a DP on a 4 year deal, with a 5th year as a team option.  The $3M transfer fee is a team record, jumping to the top of the top5 list that (per BW) is Mihailovic, Juan Ramirez, Jack Price, Max, and Marko Ilic.  Outside of Captain Jack the rest of that list is very uninspiring so far from a Rapids POV.  Hopefully Mihailovic can turn that around.

Also today Colorado announced that Max has been transferred to Cuiabá in Brazil.  Nothing has been confirmed on any transfer fee paid (unlikely) but there is a report that the Rapids have a 35% sell-on clause.  There is still no resolution to to the allegations that he was involved in match-fixing, and in fact the press release calls out that the MLS investigation is on-going.  He is supposed to be introduced by Cuiabá in a press conference this week and will presumably have to address it.

Finally tonight Burgundy Wave is reporting that Cole Bassett is signing a new 4- year deal as a U-22 player.  This is a great move if it happens, but we'll get into the details on that when its official.

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Rapids Soccernomics Explained

 Ok, so Burgundy Wave actually put up my article tonight.  Check it out here:


Rapids Soccernomics Explained

Mihailovic Reportedly Signed, Info On Steffen

Thanks to the great work from Tom Bogert at the Athletic, Matt Pollard at Bugundy Wave, and Braidon Nourse at the Denver Post, taking over the Rapids beat from Brendan Ploen (who we wish well in his new job in Chicago) we got a bunch of information about the two big names we've been talking about this week.

First, Bogert is reporting that Djordje Mihailovic has passed his medical and the contract is done.  So expect to see that announcement from the Rapids on Monday or Tuesday.  Nourse has independently confirmed Bogert's report and is also reporting it will be a 4-year deal with a team option for a 5th year.  Also confirmed is that its Maxso who will be bought down from his DP status, leaving the DP's as Cabral, Navarro, and Mihailovic.  Nourse says that club sources have told him that a #6 is a priority, and "there are expected to be multiple additional inbound moves both domestically and internationally."

Both players are expected to arrive before the reporting date a week from today (Saturday the 13th).  That's something I didn't give the Front Office credit for in my last post.  We've seen this Front Office (and historically, the Rapids FO many years) struggle to get deals done in preseason, resulting in players showing up after camp has already started or once, infamously, the club met Joe Mason the first time in Boston's Logan Airport when they arrived for the season opener against New England.  So credit should be given for getting these two big moves done before camp even opens.

On the Steffen front, Burgundy Wave reported that they've confirmed that Steffen arrived on a free transfer, which is a nice bit of business from the FO.  Man City took a both on his acquisition but they can afford it, we can't.  So expect Steffen to be making right at the max-TAM salary of around $1.6M.

Speaking of Burgundy Wave, keep an eye out on the site tomorrow for an article I wrote for them.  I'll link it here assuming it does go live as expected.

Thursday, January 4, 2024

Steffen Official

As expected the Rapids made the Zack Steffen signing official today.  He's signed through the 2026 season with a team option for 2027 on a TAM deal.  As part of the deal Colorado sent $50K of GAM to the Revolution for his rights.  There was no mention of the Yarbrough deal with San Jose, I expect that will drop tomorrow.  There's no mention of what transfer fee was paid, but seeing that he's not a DP it can't be that high, Burgundy Wave believes no more than $2 million.

Speaking of Burgundy Wave, they have learned as part of the Rapids move to bring Americans who are looking for a new start home from Europe (Steffen, Mihailovic) that the club reached out to see if there was any interest from Sam Vines to return to the club after not getting much playing time this season with Royal Antwerp and the response from Vines was that there was no interest.  He has played their last couple of games and at age 24 I'm sure he still feels like he has a future in Europe, even if Antwerp doesn't work out.  Plus you have to wonder if the way things ended between Richard Fleming and the club has any impact (for those who don't know, Sam is engaged to Jessica Fleming, Richard's daughter).

Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Colorado On The Verge Of Signing Two Americans

Tom Bogert at the Athletic broke two major stories about the Rapids today.  First, that the rumored deal for Zack Steffen from Man City is done, its a 3-year deal with a team option for a 4th year, and he won't take a DP slot.  Bogert reported that Steffen has passed his medical.  The team seemed to later confirm this report by posting a teaser on social media, specifically "0161 -> 303" which are the primary phone codes for Manchester and Denver, followed by a pair of glove emojis.

Bogert's second report was that the club is nearing agreement on a club-record $3M transfer fee for attacking midfielder Djordje Mihailovic from AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands.  Reportedly he's been held out of training as the final details get worked out and he takes his medical.  The Rapids didn't go so far in confirming this report, but they did post a meme suggesting more deals are to come.  At this point I feel fairly confident that Steffen will be announced tomorrow and Mihailovic will likely be next week.

Since we're certain Steffen is signed, we'll start there.  He'll be in 29 in early April. coming off leading Middlesbrough to a 4th placed finish in the Championship in the 22-23 season (6 points better than my Rovers) before being eliminated in the promotion playoffs 1-0 in a 2-legged series.  He then had knee surgery and hasn't played regularly since.  He mad ~ 20 appearances for Man City in his time at the club.  Before that he was the regular starter for the Crew from 2017 through his transfer to Man City midway through the 2019 season.  He has also, at times, been the #1 for the U.S. but due to injury and a decrease in his play he didn't make the squad for the 2022 World Cup.  Part of his goal in moving to Colorado is almost certainly to move back up the depth chart for the U.S.

There has been no report on what fee, if any, we're paying for Steffen.  For reference Man City paid $7 million to get him from the Crew.  Obviously we're not paying anything close to that.  He's on a $3M contract at City, but given that he's reportedly not a DP he's making at most ~$1.6M with us (the max-salary for a TAM player).  So taking about a 50% pay cut.  This is a big investment for the Rapids, and comes on the heels of buying Marko Ilic this past summer.  Burgundy Wave reported that we paid $800K for Ilic, plus possibly a bit more in performance clauses, and he's making $430K.  So in the last ~6 months we've invested $2M in salary and probably at least $1M in transfer fees in goalkeeping...all while having William Yarbrough as our capable starter already signed.

Speaking of Will, Bogert's report is that his rights have been traded to San Jose as part of this deal.  No report as to what we got out of the trade, but probably something on the order of $50K in GAM, since its just the MLS rights to an unsigned player.

Maybe its just me, but this seems like digging out of a hole we created unnecessarily.  The move for Ilic never made much sense from the beginning, starting with loaning in a guy only through July 5th, when he'd be lucky to get more than a couple of spot starts in MLS play and a couple of Open Cup matches before we would need to make a decision, to then deciding to purchase him.  By the end of the season he seemed like a less-capable keeper than Yarbrough but maybe good enough to play in MLS.  Credit to the Front Office for realizing that we had weakened that position and moving to reinforce it, but maybe we shouldn't have spent time weakening it when we had so many other problems?  And really, with LAFC having signed Loris and having a couple of MLS capable keepers who are looking for homes there may have been a cheaper way of fixing this problem.  Still, I expect Steffen to play very well for us so its a positive step from that point of view.

Next up a more expensive move that makes more sense, Djordje Mihailovic.  He got his start in the Chicago Fire academy and with the Fire for 4 seasons.  He really broke out as an attacking mid and a winger after being traded to Montreal (for $1M in GAM) before the 2021 season.  Over two years in Canada he made 61 appearances, scoring 13 times and adding 22 assists.  That let to him being sold for $7 million to AZ Alkmaar last August.  Unfortunately things didn't work out as he had hoped in the Netherlands, and along with the fact that he and his partner are expecting in May it was time to come home and get a fresh start.

Mihailovic got a look from the Nats back in 2019 but was not part of the squad leading up and through the World Cup.  He's had 5 callups in 2023 though and at 25 still has time to claim a spot on the team, though with our talent up front likely as a substitute.

This is absolutely the type of player a team like the Rapids should be looking at, so I'm very happy with this move on the field.  I'm not sure how you get Mihailovic, Ronan, Bassett, and the #6 we desperately need on the field at the same time though, unless you play Mihailovic on one wing and Fernandez on the other in a 4-5-1/4-2-3-1.  Djordje would clearly be the best midfielder on the team though, so its more about how to work Ronan/Bassett in than him.

I do question a bit making him the highest transfer ever paid by the Rapids.  Before this the record was the $2.65 million spent on Juan Ramirez in 2015 (and by the gods was that move even worse than I realized, but that's for another time).  Mihailovic has shown a lot of potential, but he feels more like a guy you put on a max-TAM deal at most.  He's currently AZ Alkmaar's highest paid player at ~$1M a year, so its really only the transfer fee that makes him a DP (likely).  It will be interesting to see the exact terms of this deal, it feels like with some creativity there might be a chance to get it low enough to be that max-TAM move and leave that DP slot open.  If we can't, Maxsø will have to be bought down to a TAM deal to open the DP slot.

Finally, Bogert mentioned that the Rapids aren't done yet, so we'll see what else in in the plan.  Today it appears the club is spending somewhere north of $3M in transfer fees and likely $2.5-$3M in salary, which is a singificant unexpected step, but one in a good direction.

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Rapids Waive Scottish Duo

New year, new news.  Colorado waived defender Danny Wilson and midfielder Sam Nicholson today.  Wilson first joined the team as part of the influx of players Anthony Hudson brought in in 2018.  After a much-to-large contract to start given his leve3l of play his second contract came down to a reasonable level for an decent starting defender in MLS.  Unfortunately over the years MLS's level rose while Wilson's didn't (and arguably declined) to the point where he's really only backup quality now, and we're paying him more than that.  He gave us good service over the years and hopefully he's successful moving on.

Sam Nicholson first joined the team in 2018 under Hudson as well, and was a solid player in his first stint, and a fan favorite.  During the pandemic he was released due to family issues that needed him to return home, and played for two years for Bristol Rovers before returning to the Rapids in the summer of 2022.  Unfortunately by that time the progress of the league had moved past Nicholson and he was unable to bring that same level of impact to the team.  It was clear last year that he wasn't going to be more than an occasional bench player going forward.  Releasing him also frees up an international slot.

Both these moves were necessary to move forward, and its more of the rebuilding we all knew needed to happen.  The Rapids now have 24 players under contract, including Generation Adidas draftee Kimani Stewart-Baynes.  At last report they were still negotiating to bring Yarbrough back, but the rumors around Steffen suggests that they expect to move on from him.