5 In A Row, A 6th Might Be Worth It?

In my preview of the Santos game I stated that the Rapids should not focus on this competition.  I still don't know that they should but the results over the last three nights have certainly made it a tougher decision.

Obviously the biggest one from Colorado's POV was their comeback win over the Mexican bottom-dwellers, with Navarro getting 2 goals in the second half.  This is a game that could have been 5-1 Rapids at times, we just couldn't finish (heard that before).  The regulars all got the start so some rotation will likely be needed tomorrow night.

The other results on Thursday were significant.  The Galaxy beat Tijuana by 3 and the Sounders curb-stomped Cruz Auzl with 7 goals in the second half.  The Montreal and Miami failed to win over the last tow nights (though Miami did win its shootout).

What that means is that only 6 MLS teams can now get to 9 points, meanwhile on the Liga MX side 4 teams are already at least 5 points (one at 6) with a positive goal differential and one can still get there.  This means that with just a shootout loss in their next game they almost certainly finish ahead of Cruz Azul and likely Tijuana.  Possibly Santos too.

So the Rapids are now looking at playing two all-but-eliminated Liga MX teams (possibly officially eliminated by the time they play Cruz Azul) while being in a position to be one of only 6 MLS teams to make it to 6 points after two games.  Portland is currently up a goal and a man with 30 minutes to play so they look likely to be the first, but Minnesota was in the same position earlier this evening and blew it.  Cinci and RBNY have a chance tomorrow as well.

The drawback though is that the other two teams that can do it are Seattle and the Galaxy, the other teams in Colorado's pod, facing  the same group of all-but eliminated Liga MX teams.  You would expect that if Colorado gets there, they will too (certainly Seattle would be expected to, especially with Santos down their keeper) and with a better GD thanks to their first games.

So its time for Armas to make a big decision.  Do we risk our game in Minnesota by playing the starters tomorrow night and/or on Thursday to grab one of those 4 slots?  Do we rotate some tomorrow, hope to get the win, then look at the lay of the land and make a decision on Thursday?  Or do we focus on the playoff run and plan for the reserves to get most of the next two games?

Its a harder decision for me now than it was on Wednesday.  The games are, mostly, breaking in Colorado's favor.  If push comes to shove though I think the playoffs are more important.  There's a week between now and the Minnesota game, play a mix of starters who feel rested and backups tomorrow and see where things land come Thursday.

Man of the Match: Rafael Navarro.  2 goals, easy decision.

Leagues Cup 2025

 

Tomorrow night the defending 3rd place Rapids kick off their Leagues Cup 2025 campaign with a home match against our old friends Santos Laguna.  The competition has undergone some radical changes this season.  Out are the 3 team groups, in is a cross-league Phase 1 of the competition.

In Phase 1 the 18 playoff teams from last season (one exception, due to their CCC and Canadian Championship play Vancouver has been replaced by San Diego) face the 18 Liga MX teams.  The 36 teams have been broken down into six 6-team pods.  Each team in the pod plays the three teams in their pod from the other league, in the Rapids' case that's Santos Laguna, Club Tijuana, and Cruz Azul.  The top 4 teams from each league across the six pods will move on to the quarterfinals where each matchup will be Liga-MX - MLS.

So we are no longer trying to win our group, we are trying to be one of the 4 best MLS teams in the competition.  And, as the lowest MLS team in the group we play one game on the road while the other two teams in our group get three home games.

Looking back at the last Clausura Santos Laguna finished deal last and Tijuana finished 13th.  Cruz Azul finished 3rd.  The prior Apertura Santos Laguna once again finished last, Tijuana was 7th, and Cruz Azul won the whole thing.

So tomorrow night's game is absolutely winnable and Sunday against Tijuana is a game we can win.  Next Thursday in LA against Cruz Azul?  We will not be the favorites in any way.

So because of all of that, we shouldn't prioritize this competition this year.  I know our run last year was the high point of the season, but the situation was different.  One, we were solidly in a playoff spot needing only a few more points to clinch one when the Leagues Cup started.  Two, the league took a break for a month to play Leagues Cup so we didn't have to balance the playoff fight with the Cup.  The Rapids play a league match in Minnesota a week from Sunday.  We can't run out the starters tomorrow night, Sunday, Thursday, and Sunday again without ending the season like we did in 2024, with no energy and racking up loss after loss.

Plus this season with the format change, just getting one home win doesn't get us to the knockouts.  We need more than 6 points probably to have a shot.  So throw out the starters tomorrow night, play the kids against Tijuana, and then see where you stand going against Cruz Azul.  Unless the odds are very good that 1 point will get us through against the Liga MX giants we should throw the reserves to the wolves and rest the starters for league play.

No prediction for this one as its impossible to know what Armas is thinking right now.  A quick recap of the game plus a preview of Tijuana on Fri/Sat.

Leagues Cup, No Open Cup For Rapids In 2025

US Soccer. and MLS announced the plans for the Leagues Cup and the U.S. Open Cup today (as well as confirming all 3 Canadian teams will play in the Canadian Championship as normal).  In order to avoid too much load on any team MLS made the decision that each team would only play in at most two additional competitions per season in 2025 and 2026 including the CONCACAF Champions Cup.  They also announced how those competitions would be determined.

Obviously the top competition is the CCC and any team who qualifies for it will play in it.  That includes the Rapids in 2025.

For the Leagues Cup the top 9 teams in each conference will qualify.  The Rapids finished 7th last year so will play in the 2025 Leagues Cup.  Since Vancouver qualified for the CCC and are the defending Canadian Champions they will not take their place in the 2025 Leagues Cup and will be replaced by San Diego.

16 American MLS teams will qualify for the Open Cup.  Any team not who doesn't qualify for CCC or Leagues Cup automatically qualify for the Open Cup.  Any additional spots (7 this year) will go in order of the prior year's Supporters Shield standings, excluding any CCC teams.

So every team gets at least one competitions and this year two-thirds of the league get two.

MLS Next Pro ('2' teams) will also be in the Open Cup with 11 spots.  These will go to the two independent teams (not associated with a MLS club) and nine of the twelve teams who's first teams are not in the Open Cup themselves.  San Diego doesn't have a '2' team yet so they won't be represented at all in the USOC.  The other two teams not included were decided by the 2024 MLS Next Pro standings.  Atlanta was third to bottom in the East but the two teams below them (NE and NSH) have their first teams in the competition so they're not in the USOC.  Last place in the West last year was...Rapids 2.  So Colorado won't be represented in the Open Cup by either the first or 2 team.

Also as part of this news the USSF announced all the teams in the Open Cup.  Colorado will be represented by Harpos FC (USASA), Flatirons FC (USL-2) and the Switchbacks (USLC).  Harpos and Flatirons will enter in the First Round where they're each guaranteed a matchup against a fully professions USL-1 or USL-C team.  The winners of the first round will face off in the second round, and those winners will face the remaining USL-C teams including league champions Colorado Springs in the Third Round.

We're still waiting to hear the competition format of the Leagues Cup for 2025 and 2026, but we know the league won't be taking a break for it this year, the games will happen mid-week between league games.  It does appear that MLS has cleared a 10 day spot at the end of July/beginning of August to allow a couple of games to be played, the last weekend of July all the games are Fri/Sat and the first weekend of August there are no league games.

Our Toughest Opponent Ever?

Means Club America, which is trouble you've not known.

Two quick notes.  First I have some family and work plans that are going to make it difficult to keep up with blogging over the next couple of weeks, thus why you're getting this game preview a day early.  If we beat Club America don't be surprised to not see a game recap or preview for the semifinal but I'll do my best.

Second, as really their only move of the transfer window, the Rapids waived Aboubacar Keita today (they also traded an international slot to Atlanta last week).  Keita has been on loan to Bohemians in the Irish league but he was getting less and less playing time as their season went on and they terminated the loan (his last appearance was July 4th).  Its clear at this point that post-injuries Keita isn't a part of Colorado's plans and he may not even have anted to b here.  Moving on is probably best for both parties.

Now, on to the main subject.  On Saturday in LA the Rapids will meet Club America in the Leagues Cup quarterfinals.  America is arguably the best team on the continent and the biggest club we've ever played in a competitive match.  For comparison sake transfermrkt has America's club value at just under 100 million Euros.  A couple of million more than Inter Miami even with the GOAT and almost double LAFC.  Toluca is listed at 72 million Euros.  So this is really a step up for what Colorado has faced in the past.

That said, they needed a late goal and an awful PK call to beat St. Louis, a team the Rapids have handled twice this season.  Like every other team in this competition they're playing on short rest and in their case away from home.  They don't have to travel for this one, having played both their games in SoCal (as Liga MX champion they like Columbus got a bye through the group stage), but that doesn't make it home.  It will be a very pro-CA crowd in Dignity Health Sports Park however.

The Rapids biggest problem is going to be fitness.  This is now their 5th game in 16 days and we aren't a deep team. The backline other than Abubakar has played every minute of those games, as has Bassett.  At some point that amount of work is going to catch up to us.  I don't see a way around it this game though.  We have to start as many of our top players as we can if we're going to get past America.  This is not a spot to throw Anderson or Travis in the deep end, and a midfield of Ronan and Larraz behind Mihailovic won't work.

CA is going to out-possess  us in this game, guaranteed.  It will look like the Toluca game where we'll need to pick our moments to  press and hit on the counter, and the rest of the time we're going to need airtight defense.  Steffen looking like 2018 Steffen will help.

Kickoff on Saturday is at 8pm MT.  The winner gets the winner of LAFC/Seattle also on Saturday (we're on the road if we win).

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Mihailovic.  I know I've doubted the Rapids in two of the last three games and they proved me wrong, but this is a new level for them.  The lack of depth, which has meant lack of rest in this competition, is going to catch up to them eventually and I think it happens Saturday night.  There's no shame in losing to the best team in CONCACAF though.

Bell Unheard

The Rapids aren't making this easy, but they are making it fun.  For the second game of the last three we scored a last minute goal to change the outcome of the game.  Last night Toluca bossed the game from start to finish but struggled to get the ball in the back of the net. 22 shots, 6 on target, 1 went in.   Meanwhile the Rapids had 4 total shots, only 2 shots on target and finished both of them.  Toluca outpossessed the "home" side 63-37, out cornered them 5-3, and had over 200 more passes.  But the only number that matters is the one on the scoreboard.

Both Rapids goals came against the run of play.  Shortly before halftime Bassett made a cross-field diagonal pass to a streaking Vines.  Sammy, after honestly a horrible first half, put a perfect one-touch on it to send it across the front of goal for sliding Navarro to finish.  Toluca were stunned that after all their work they were going to go into the break down a goal.  Rapids fans were a bit stunned too.

The second half was more of the same, Toluca hammering away and not being able to finish.  They did finally level the score on an absolute golazo.  A pretty non-threatening possession around the halfway line broke the offside trap down the right side.  Hard to tell who kept him onside but it could have been anyone on the backline other than Abubakar.  The eventual cross was ever so slightly behind Paulinho but he wasn't bothered.  He did a simple 360 spin, back heeling the ball past Steffen at the far post.  A jaw-dropping move to beat Zack.

After that it was really looking like PKs and with Navarro being subbed out and Bombito being sold I was wondering who our 5 kickers were going to be.  But the Rapids didn't hear no bell.  In the 91st minute cross from Ronan found an unmarked Mihailovic who headed it home for the lead.  VAR, however, had other ideas, correctly noting that Ronan was offside when he received the pass.  Back to the penalty discussion only for Mihailovic to change positions 2 minutes later.  Djordje was on the outside sending in a cross.  A Toluca defender redirected it towards the goal but it may not have gotten there if not for Yapi crashing in to finish it (keeper might have been able to save it).  Rapids win 2-1 and move into the quarterfinals after getting results against 3-straight Liga MX teams.

That next step is against Club America in LA on Saturday.  CA is a whole new level for this team and its going to take everything we have to face them.  But we'll worry about that later.  First lets just enjoy that the Rapids have made it to the quarterfinals when teams like Chivas, Cruz Azul, Pumas, Miami, Cincinnati, and the Galaxy are sitting at home.

Man of the Match: Zack Steffen.  2018 Steffen is back in the Leagues Cup.  Just a brick wall that has only been beaten by one Liga MX goal in open play and it took an all-time goal to do it.

Toluca For The Second Year In A Row

Colorado has made it to the Round of 16 and waiting their is a friend from last year's group stage, Toluca.  Last year they came to the Dick and beat us 4-1.  The game was 1-0 at half and up until the 78th minute, but then we leaked 3 goals late (including a penalty) while Rubio scored a penalty for us in stoppage time.  The Rapids were never really in that game despite the low score most of the way.

Toluca finished 3rd in the table in this spring's Clausura and is off to a hot start in the Apertura, with 2 wins and 2 draws in the first 4 games.  Their a team at a higher level right now than Leon and Juarez.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm (not 7:30) and once again we're the road team in our own stadium.  This is also not part of the season ticket package so you'll need to buy a ticket.

Colorado will be without Cabral of course and likely without Bombito.  He was held out of practice today with that same hamstring tweak that kept him out of the game on Friday night.  Otherwise everyone else is expected to be available.  This is the 4th game in 12 days and Vines, Rosenberry, Navarro, and Maxso have played all 270 minutes of the prior 3.  You have to figure a rest is coming up for some of them.  Maybe Anderson or Travis for one of the outside backs tomorrow night?  I doubt Maxso sits if Bombito isn't available.  Bassett has played all but 15 minutes, and Ronan and Lewis have gone 60+ minutes in all 3 games as well.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Larraz start and Ronan come off the bench against Toluca.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Abubakar.  I think this is where the Rapids run ends.  We won't be pushovers like last season but our lack of depth is going to bite us late when we're tired or have subbed in players who aren't up to Toluca's level.  They get the winning goal in the second half and despite a valiant effort we can't take it to penalties.

Two Down, Bring On Toluca!

Friday night the Rapids continued their Leagues Cup run with another win over a Liga MX team.  While the win was tight at the end (as I predicted) the Rapids controlled long stretches of the game.  Zach Steffen once again came up huge on multiple saves.  He's just build for Leagues Cup I guess.

The Juarez goals were off a rebound by Steffen, where Vines kept everyone onside, and a PK given up by Ronan.  Two players who have struggled on defense this year.  Along with the goal against Leon, which also came from a rebound after Steffen parried a one on one shot off the post its hard to blame goalkeeping for any of the goals conceded the last two games.

On offense getting three goals is a nice return.  The first was generated from high pressure put on by Navarro that resulted in a turnover on the end line.  Lewis finished the chance just after he had skied one to the point where I didn't knew who had taken the shot and turned to other C38 members and said "If you tell me that was Lewis I'd believe you",  Sorry JLew for not believing in you.  He also earned a penalty on a hand ball for the second, finished by Mihailovic.  Then it was Mihailovic's turn to set up (eventually) Harris from a corner kick that pinballed around in the box a bit before he finished it.  Three good goals from 3 different sources (open play, penalty, corner).

With the win Colorado moves to the Round of 16 and faces Toluca in another game as the away team at home.  This one is Tuesday night at the Dick at 8pm.  These tickets are not part of the season ticket plan so we might see a less Rapids-biased crowd.

If you're wondering how the rest of the competition lays out, if we beat Toluca we would face the winner of Club America-St. Louis.  We would go on the road for that one (to San Diego if Club America wins).  Then if we're still alive in the semi-finals we would get the winner of the Seattle/LAFC/SJ/Pumas quadrant.  The only way we would host would be against Pumas.  In the final the remaining team would be between 5 MLS clubs and 3 Liga MX clubs on that side of the bracket.  We would host a Liga MX club but be on the road against a MLS club should we play in the championship.

First up though, focus on Toluca.  They took us to the woodshed in group play at the Dick last year.

Man of the Match: Jonathan Lewis.  Score a goal, draw a PK for the second.  Steffen had a great game but I give the edge to JLew.

Juarez In The Knockouts

So this is what moving on looks like.  The Rapids are back in action again tomorrow night. this time being the "away" team for FC Juarez.  Kickoff is at the more normal 7:30 and it's going to be much cooler than expected for an August game.  A nice change.

As far as I know only Kevin Cabral is unavailable tomorrow but it is the third game in 8 days so we may see some rotation.  First I expect Djordje Mihailovic is probably able to start.  But we might see somebody like Rosenberry or Maxso rested.  We're in a position that if we keep winning we get another short rest game, but if we don't we get 3 weeks off.  So at some point rest is going to have to happen so when do you make that switch?

Juarez will play more of a possession game and the Rapids will need to use their press and counter strategy against them.  What we saw for the last 20-30 minutes on Monday night is what we want to see.  Juarez beat Dallas 2-0 and tied St. Louis 1-1, winning the shootout, to win their group.  Two teams that we've beaten by a combined 9-2 three times this season.  Juarez is also, obviously, on the road for their 3rd game but has an extra day of rest over us.

The winner of tomorrow's game will face the winner of the Houston - Toluca match.  Houston will host if they win, Colorado would host Toluca.  The Leagues Cup would decide where a Toluca-Juarez game would be played.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Mihailovic and Bassett.  I think the Rapids might be a better team than Juarez right now and they have the home advantage.  I think that gives them enough to overcome the fatigue, but it will be close.  I wouldn't be shocked to see another shootout.

The Streak Is Over

After almost 8 years ad 10 chances the Rapids have finally advanced in a competition against MLs or international competition.  Just like the last time it happened it came down to a PK shootout with a U.S. Nats keeper in goal for Colorado coming up big.  Before that it looked like Colorado was on the ropes before a last second goal from Navarro.  What's that?  That's right, I Didn't Hear No Bell!

The first half was fairly even on the stat sheet but the couple of good looks went Leon's way.  Luckily Steffen was up to the challenge including stoning Leon on a one-on-one they should have scored on.  In the second half the field tilted Colorado's way, especially once Mihailovic was subbed in.  The problem was despite their good looks the Rapids couldn't get one over the goal line.

That ended up costing the home-but-road side in the 77th minute.  Leon got behind the defense and while Steffen was able to get enough of a block on the one-on-one to force the shot into the post, the follow-up was an easy tap in.  There was a long delay as VAR got involved on the goal because the pass to the initial shooter was a very close offside call, and just off that pass Maxso had taken an arm in the face as the pass was made, which could have been considered a foul in the build-up.  In the end the goal stood, much to the objection of the Rapids players and fans.

Looking back at the goal I can't find a fault in allowing it but I think a different ref or with different technology it might not have stood.  I've been told that Leagues Cup is using the semi-automated offside technology like we saw in the Euros so if that came up as onside I can't argue it.  If this were MLS though I don't think there was a shot clear enough to overturn the original offside call.  As far as the tussle with Maxso right before he got an arm to the face he got his elbow up in the face of the Leon player.  Was their a foul there?  Likely, but you could make a case there was a foul the other way too and a no-call was appropriate.  Again a different ref maybe waves it off for the foul.

Colorado didn't go away though.  They had 2 or 3 good looks after the goal but it felt like it wasn't going to come.  But this is the 2024 'I didn't hear no bell' Rapids.  With less than a minute left Bassett lofted a cross into the box that Rosenberry volleyed to the exact right position for Navarro to head home.  His first goal after signing his new contract.  It was the last real touch of the game taking us directly to penalties 

In penalties Steffen came up big, stopping two of Leon's last three penalties after Mihailovic (as predicted), Bassett, Navarro, and Bombito scored theirs.  Maxso's had his saved so we needed the second save to win.   

With the results in other games the Rapids will host FC Juarez on Friday in the round of 32.  The Rapids will once again be the road team.  Home/road is determined by league results last year, so Colorado is the next-to-last placed team on the table (only Toronto 9is worse).  So we're always going to be the road team even when playing at the Dick.  That's why you saw Leon graphics on the scoreboards after the goal and such.  Kickoff on Friday will be at 7:30.  If we beat Juarez we'll play the winner of Houston and Toluca (who beat us at the Dick last year).  We'd go to Houston and host Toluca.

Man of the Match: Zack Steffen.  Easy.  Maybe his best game as a Rapid.

The Balboa Cup

Image from Burgundy Wave

If you don't count his one-time five-minute cameo appearance for the Metrostars at the end of his career 'Celo only played for two still existing professional teams, Club Leon in 1994 and 1995, and the Rapids from 1996 through 2001.  Tomorrow both his clubs face off in the Leagues Cup.with a spot in the knockout rounds on the line.  Winner (in regulation or PKs) moves on, loser is out.  Kickoff is at 7pm (not 7:30!).

Despite what certain people are posting this is not the inaugural Balboa Cup.  In the qualifying round of the 1998 CONCACAF Champions Cup Colorado, as MLS Cup runners-up, and Leon, as Inverno winner, were matched up in a home-and-home.  The young Rapids surprised Leon in Denver winning 1-0 before going down to Mexico and getting blitzed 4-2.  BTW the winning goal in that first game was scored in the 83rd minute by none other than Marcelo Balboa.  Paul Bravo and Steve Trittschuh had the goals in the loss.

There is one other connection between these teams.  Former goalkeeper William Yarbrough came to the Rapids from Leon.

Coming back to tomorrow's game the good news is that Djordje Mihailovic and Kimani Stewart-Baynes are both available after returning from national team duties.  Of course the bad news is that they're both back earlier than they had hoped, with Djordje and the U.S. being eliminated from Olympic competition in a 4-0 loss to Morocco on Friday.  Adam Beaudry played in tonight's CONCACAF U-20 final against Mexico and will not be available.  The Yanks conceded goals with the final kick of regulation, to tie the game 1-1, and the final kick of extra time, to lose 2-1.  Nothing Beaudry could have done on either goal.

Don't be surprised to see Colorado wearing the New Day kits tomorrow as technically they are the road team in this match.  I'm not going to get into the reasoning behind this and in the end it has very little impact.  The kits are the only noticeable change.

Leon likes to build out of the back with short passing so Colorado will need to hit them quickly on the counter.  If we can institute our mid block and get them on their heels we'll have a chance but the deeper we sit the more they'll like it.

I expect to see the same lineup as we saw in Portland.  Despite Mihailovic being back I don't see him starting.  He played 250 minutes over 4 games in 9 days, and then took a long trans-Atlantic flight home.  He doesn't have 90 minutes in him and as our best PK taker you want him on the field at the end of the game if you think its going to penalties.  He'll be available off the bench if we need a 2nd-half spark.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, loss in PKs.  Goal by Bassett.  I just feel like Mexican teams find a way and after our performance in Portland I'm not sure we're up to the pressure of a knockout competition yet.

Deja Vu, Deja Vu

Remember that game when the Rapids went up to Portland and got burned in transition over and over, leading to giving up 4 goals and looking completely outmatched?  No, not the season opener, last night.

Yeah, I don't know what it is about Portland, either the team or the stadium but they have our number.  Just like the game back in February Portland drove the ball down our throats and we had no answer.  We had two great chances in the first 5 minutes that Crepeau stood on his head to keep out (one for Fernandez and one from Navarro) and then we didn't have another shot on goal until Armas threw in the towel and subbed the kids in late in the game.  At that point we were down 4-0 and looking ahead to Leon on Monday.

I'm not going to go through and break down this game too much, largely because neither the game nor the competition deserve it.  But to give you an example, on the first goal it was 5 Timbers attackers against 8 Rapids defenders (including Steffen).  Despite that mismatch the only pressure put on the ball was a weak effort from Bombito on the entry pass and Steffen let the shot get between his legs.  And it got worse from there (the lack of effort on the 4th goal was disheartening).  Nobody had a good game, but Rosenberry, Vines, and Steffen had particularly bad ones.

The silver lining is that with a loss goal differential doesn't come into play.  The winner (be it regulation or PKs) on Monday night advances, the loser goes (or stays) home.  Honestly, I don't have high hopes but stranger things have happened.  Should we fail to advance it will continue an almost 8 year streak of not advancing in knockout competitions against MLS or international opposition.  That covers the MLS Playoffs (0 for 3), the Open Cup (0 for 3), the Champions League (0 for 2), the Leagues Cup (0 for 1), and the MLS Is Back tournament (0 for 1).  The last 10 chances dating back to being eliminated by Seattle in the 2016 conference finals.

Man of the Match: Adam Beaudry, for getting the U-20s into the U-20 World Cup and the CONCACAF U-20 final, and for not being part of this mess.

Leagues Cup 2024

Before we get to tomorrow night's game a quick update on our international players.  Djordje Mihailovic had the first goal off a free kick (think of his LAFC goal, pretty similar) in the U.S.'s 3-0 victory over Guinea.  With the win they made the quarterfinals and will play Morocco at 7am on Friday.  If they win they get the winner of Japan-Spain in the middle of next week.  If they lose there's a chance Djordje could be back in time for the Leon game on Monday night.

In the CONCACAF U-20 tournament the U.S. won its quarterfinal over Guatemala 1-0.  The win included an 89th minute PK save by Rapids keeper Adam Beaudry to protect the shutout and the win.  With the result the U.S. qualifies for the U-20 World Cup next year in Chile.  The U.S. plays the winner of Panama-Canada in the semis on Friday night, which turns out to be Panama.  Kimani Stewart-Baynes got the start for Canada but the team was eliminated by a Panamanian goal in the first half of extra time.  This also eliminates them from qualifying for the U-20 World Cup.  KSB should be available next Monday.

Ok, now on to the Leagues Cup.  A quick refresher on how this tournament works.  The teams are separated into 3 team groups and the top two teams from each group advance to the knockout rounds.  There are no ties in Leagues Cup, a game that's tied after 90 minutes goes directly to PKs.  Teams get 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for a PK win, 1 for a PK loss, and 0 for a regulation loss.  Tiebreaker is head-to-head (with the winner of PKs considered to be the winner for the tiebreaker), or goal differential/total goals if its a 3-way tie.

Sunday night Portland played Leon in Portland (technically Leon is the home team for both matches but the MLS team's stadium is used.  Long story.) and won on a last minute goal 2-1.  So that give Portland 3 points and Leon 0, with both of them having a game against the Rapids.  First up is tomorrow night as the Burgundy Boys also head to Portland.  Because of how the point system works the Rapids can't clinch or be eliminated, but the result could make the work they need to do against Leon easier.  Portland can clinch a spot in the knockouts with any result against us other than losing in regulation.

If we win tomorrow (in regulation or PKs), we need to get to PKs against Leon, doesn't matter if we win or lose them.  Losing to Leon in regulation after beating Portland in regulation would be the 3-way tiebreaker scenario

If we lose tomorrow (in regulation or PKs) we need to beat Leon (in regulation or PKs)

tl;dr - Winning tomorrow means anything but a loss in regulation to Leon is enough

All of that to say, I don't really know what to expect tomorrow.  It sounds like Armas is going to put out a strong lineup, but will it be the full lineup or will we see somebody like Anderson get some minutes?  And what will Portland do?  Knowing they only need a PK loss to qualify will they go all out?  A PK win is all they need to clinch first place in the group.

If I had to guess I think we see a full lineup tomorrow, assuming everyone is healthy.  Bassett pushes up for the missing Mihailovic and Ronan moves in behind him, with Lewis and Harris on the wings.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Bassett.  Rapids lose in PKs.  These are two very even teams, and we aren't the same Rapids who got blitzed in the season opener in Portland.  I think missing Mihailovic though is enough to only get a draw, and not having our top penalty taker costs us in the kicks.

A Trade, A Group Reveal, and A Signing?

A busy 1-2-3 day for the Rapids.  First up they traded the rights to Oliver Semmle, their 2nd round pick from the 2023 Superdraft to Philly for their 2nd round pick in the 2025 draft.  Semmle never signed for Colorado and spent last season starting in net for Lousiville City.  Philly then signed him as a backup after the trade.

After that the Leagues Cup groups were announced and Colorado's has a very green tinge to it.  As the original MLS green team they're in a group with Leon of Liga MX and the Portland Timbers, two teams who primary color is green.  They'll play the Timbers in Portland and Leon at home in a renewal of the Marcelo Balboa derby.  'Celo played for Leon before joining the Rapids in the inaugural season.  The teams also met in the Rapids first ever international game in 1998 back in the old CONCACAF Champions' Cup.  In the home and home series Colorado actually won the leg in Mexico 1-0, but lost the home leg 4-0.  Dates have not yet been announced.

Finally Burgundy WAve, Tom Bogert, and others are reporting that the deal for Lamine Diack is done.  Its expected that the deal will match the earlier rumors, a 6-month loan with an option to buy.  I'm still not overly impressed by the deal but we'll see what gets announced.

The Rapids Are Knocked Out...Again

In a game the Rapids had to win by 2 goals to finally move on in a knockout competition for the first time* since 2016 they gave up 2 goals before scoring a PK in stoppage time, then giving up 2 more goals to lose 4-1.  In other words, exactly like every other Rapids game we've seen in crunch time in the last 10+ years.  Oh, and we had a 2 hour rain delay to start the game, just like we've seen other times this season.

* - Not counting USOC games against lower league competition

That PK was really the perfect encapsulation of this team right now.  Kevin Cabral gets a 1 v1 breakaway against the keeper and decides the best move is to attempt a back heel pass that goes generously 3 yards to to an onrushing Barrios that was at least 15 yards behind the play at that point instead of, you know, shooting it 1 on 1 inside the box.  Lucky for Cabral is complete paranoia at shooting was covered up by the chasing defender wiping him out just after the pass, earning the PK.  It was a ridiculous decision by our big offseason signing.

Really, that's all the time I want to spend on this game.  There was nothing surprising about it, its just the same depressingly below average team we've seen for almost two seasons.  The Rapids enter this year in 4 major and 1 minor competition.

USOC: Eliminated

Leagues Cup: Eliminated

Supporters Shield: One Cincinnati win or one Colorado draw/loss from elimination

MLS Cup: In last place in the West having to jump 5 teams and make up a 10 point deficit in 11 games

Rocky Mountain Cup: Down 3 points after the first of three games

We've known since before Memorial Day that we were down to the Leagues Cup and the RMC, and now its just the RMC.   Pathetic.

And this is hardly new for this club.  Since winning MLS Cup in 2010 the Rapids have played in 20 knockout competitions.  The Leagues Cup, MLS Is Back tournament, CONCACAF Champions League (x3), MLS Playoffs (x5), and the Open Cup (x10).  They have been eliminated in the round they entered in 12 of them.  6 of the others were Open Cup tournaments where we beat a lower league team before being eliminated.

The Rapids combined record in those 20 tournaments is 12-3-27.  Of the 12 wins, 7 of them were against USL/NASL competition in the Open Cup.  3 of them were against Central American teams in the Champions League.  So of our 12 (of a possible 42) wins, 10 of them were against competition that would generally be ranked below a MLS team.  The only two wins against an equally ranked team were the wins over Columbus (2011) and LA (2016) in the playoffs.

The Rapids have played 25 games in knockout competitions against MLS and Liga MX teams since winning MLS Cup.  They have won 2 of them.  An 8% winning percentage against competition they aren't just expected to beat.  They also have two draws,  So they lost 84% of the games they've played when advancement is on the line.  Its hard to take anything this club says seriously until that changes.

Make Rapids Fun Again

Neutral Site Home Game Against Liga MX

Leagues Cup action comes to the Dick tomorrow night for a "neutral site" game.  Because Toluca is a seeded team and the Rapids are now, technically the Rapids aren't the home team, which is why you won't see things like the Oar presentation and such.  CONCACAF gonna CONCACAF.  Regardless Colorado will get the advantage of playing in their own stadium (I wonder, do they have to use the visitor's locker room?) against a touch Liga MX team that beat Nashville 4-3 on Thursday.

That result really only leaves one way through for the Rapids, a 2 goal win.  Technically a very high scoring 1-goal win (5-4 for example) would get them through as they surpass Nashville's goal scored, but this is a team that's scored a total of 5 goals in the last two months, they aren't going to double that total tomorrow.  So a 2-goal win is the only option.

Of course we'll have to do this without our new signing Navarro, who still doesn't have his visa.  I have to wonder why the Rapids, who apparently even paid for the expedited process, can't get their player's paperwork while at least 10 other teams have signed players who need similar paperwork around the start of this transfer window and have already had them in the gameday roster for the Leagues Cup.  This isn't the first time this has happened to Colorado either.  Is it just bad luck?  Are we choosing players that for some reason aren't quickly approved?  Are we doing something wrong in the paperwork?  Are other teams getting help we're not?  Regardless, its even harder to see us scoring 5 goals when Navarro is out and Rubio and Lewis are Questionable.

Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30, like normal.  I expect a pro-Toluca crowd, if out prior games against Liga MX teams are anything to go by.

Availability Report:

OUT: D Michael Edwards (lower body injury), D Alex Gersbach (lower body injury), M Max (unavailable), F Rafael Navarro (awaiting visa)

QUESTIONABLE: D Lalas Abubakar, M Jonathan Lewis (lower body injury), F Diego Rubio (upper body injury)

Might as well put out the best XI we can.  There's a pretty good chance there's going to be 3 weeks off after this game.  I supposed we could see Wilson instead of Bombito but otherwise, I think that's the XI.

Prediction: 0-0 draw, Rapids lose in the Shootout.  Toluca know they win the group with a draw, and they played on Thursday night in Nashville.  They essentially win the group with any loss where they score too.  I don't expect them to go too hard in this game and, well, the Rapids can't score.  So we're going to get another scoreless draw at the Dick and that will do it for the Leagues Cup.  Given our luck scoring and saving PKs I don't expect us to win a Shootout.

Another Game, Another Loss

While the Rapids continue to look better since the addition of Gutman, they continue to be unable to score when needed.  Once again we saw Colorado waste chance after chance until it was too late.  Nashville played in 2nd gear for the first 60 minutes, then put in their big players and within a minute it paid off with a 1-0 lead.  It quickly became 2-0 and the game seemed over.  Gutman's goal (yes it deflected off Cabral but I'm giving it to Gutman) in the 80th minute made things interesting as the Rapids had a couple of good chances after that, including a Bassett free kick that went off the post, but in the end it was too little too late.

I know a number of people want to take shots at Danny Wilson, because Nashville's first goal was deflected in off of him, but really the problem there was Ralph Priso.  He made a horrible cross-field pass to nobody then tracked back and tried to cover for his mistake by marking nobody and running around like a chicken with his head cut off.  The second goal was a defensive mess where 3-4 Nashville players were unmarked.  Just too easy.

This was probably the best lineup we could put out there and it just wasn't good enough.  Mukhtar, in 35 minutes, had more shots on target and a higher xG than anyone on the Rapids.  This roster is not good, an no amount of lineup rotation or formation switches by Fraser can compensate for that.

For the Rapids to move on to the knockout round they have three scenarios.

If Nashville beats Toluca the Rapids must beat Toluca or draw them and win the shootout

If Nashville and Toluca draw, no matter who wins the shootout, the Rapids must beat Toluca

If Toluca beats Nashville the Rapids must beat Toluca and the combined margin of the wins in those two games has to be at least 3

The first option is probably the most likely, forcing a 0-0 draw and winning the Shootout, so we should root for Nashville on Thursday.  But our best hope might be for Toluca to crush Nashville by 3 or 4 so they have nothing to worry about when they play us and even with a 1 or 2 goal loss they would win the group.

Man of the Match: Andrew Gutman

My Timing Sucks, Like Usual

I hit submit on that last post, went and checked my email, and the media game preview came in, with the availability report:

So as expected no Rubio or Navarro.  I expect we'll see Bombito take Abubakar's spot.  Otherwise the lineup we've seen against Houston and Dallas will probably start, with possibly a keeper change.

Leagues Cup? What's The Leagues Cup?

Tomorrow night in Nashville the Rapids kick off their inaugural Leagues Cup run.  We'll et to the specific game preview further down, but a quick recap of what this competition is and how it works.

• Every team in MLS and Liga MX (Mexico's top league) is participating.  The current champions of Liga MX and MLS got byes into the knockout stages, the rest of the teams were split into 3-team groups.  The first two teams (one Liga MX and one MLS team) were seeded based on their finishes in each league's last cycle, the rest of the teams were placed somewhat geographically.  For Colorado that put us in a group with the seeded teams of Nashville and Toluca.
• Each team plays each other once, with all games at MLS stadiums.  So Nashville will host Colorado (tomorrow) and Toluca (mid-week) before Colorado hosts Toluca (next Monday).
• The Colorado-Toluca game, despite being held at the Dick, is technically considered a neutral site game and Toluca is the "home" team because their the seeded team.  That means that the standard Rapids game ceremonies (like the Oar) won't take place.  If there's a kit clash we will also wear our road kits.
• Each game is the standard 3 points for a win, 1 point for each team for a draw.  However if a game is draw after 90 minutes both teams will get a point and then there will be a PK shootout with the winner getting an extra point (in last night's opening matches Leon and Vancouver went 19 rounds before Leon won 16-15!).
• The top 2 teams in the group move on to the knockout stage.

So what that means is that the minimum to get through is 2 points (whereas without the bonus point in a 3 team group you could get trough with a draw and loss if you win the GD tiebreaker).  3 points is probably enough unless you get unlucky on the GD tiebreaker, and 4 points clinches advancement.

Knowing all that. lets talk about tomorrow's match.  Kickoff in Nashville is at 6:30 MT and like the regular season all of these games are streamed through MLS Season Pass.  I don't know if tomorrow's game is one of the free ones this weekend or not.

Normally this is where I would list the injury report, but at least as of right now the Rapids have not put out a new injury report.  I don't know if they're required to for this competition.  There was a press conference with Fraser and Rosenberry this afternoon where Robin said Rubio still isn't ready to play yet.  *sigh*

We also haven't heard anything about Navarro's status, but I'm assuming if he had gotten his visa the would be heavily promoting him so I have to assume he won't be available either.  Great job by the FO keeping the fans engaged over this big summer DP signing, its not like this Leagues Cup is essentially the only thing we have left to play for or anything.  I know the Media Department wasn't happy about my last comments over a lack of information, but that doesn't change my frustration over it.  A team that struggles for relevance in this city , who's regular season was over by Memorial Day, and who won't play a home game after the Toluca match for 6 weeks needs everything they can get to keep fans engaged through the dog days of summer, not silence.

Anyway, I'm not going to predict a lineup because of the lack of availability information.  The only thing I will say is that I expect it to be very close to what we've seen the last couple of games.  It feels like Fraser has settled into a lineup he's happy with now that they've added Gutman.  The one change we might see is Ilic starting instead of Yarbrough.

(And I just realized that since that news came out right before the last game I never touched on it here.  Ilic was purchased and signed to a 2.5 year deal through 2025, with club options for 2026 and 2027, last Saturday.  No news on the transfer fee or salary has leaked, though we'll find out the latter when the union publishes the salaries once the window closes.)

Prediction: 1-1 draw, we lose the shootout.  Goal by Harris.  This is a little optimistic I'll admit but Nashville is only an OK home team and they've been in a bit of a funk.  I think the possibility is there to steal a point.  Given our PK woes (both taking and defending) I don't have hopes that we'll win a Shoot out though.,

Leagues Cup Schedule Released

The schedule for the group stage of the Leagues Cup was released today.  As a reminder we're in a 3-team group with Nashville SC and Toluca of Liga MX.  Each team will play each other once, top two teams move on to the knockout stage.

Game 1: Colorado Rapids @ Nashville SC - July 23rd

Game 2: Toluca @ Nashville SC - July 27th

Game 3: Toluca @ Colorado Rapids - July 31st

As expected, the Rapids-Nashville game goes first, then Toluca flies in to play its two games and will know if its moving on as soon as their done, so they can go to their next match or fly home.  Somewhat surprisingly we get the best schedule, with 8 days between our two games.  Both Nashville and Toluca will play their second game 4 days later.  I assumed that Nashville, as the seeded team playing at home, would get the greater rest.

All season-ticket holders had the Rapids-Toluca game included in their season ticket packages.  Tickets for the match will go on sale tomorrow.

The teams that advance will play the Round of 32 matches on Aug. 2nd-4th, the Round of 16 Aug, 6th-8th, the Quarterfinals Aug, 11th & 12th, the Semifinals Aug. 15th, and the 3rd Placed game & Final on Aug. 19th (third-place mattes because the top 3 teams get a CONCACAF Champions League berth).

The two Liga MX-Liga MX group stage games are being played at the venue of the MLS team in their group.  In the Round of 32 and beyond the MLS team will host any matches against Liga MX side, matches against other MLS sides will be hosted by the group winner in the Round of 32 and by the higher placed team in the 2022 Shield standings for future rounds.  Liga MX-Liga MX games in the knockout rounds will be played in MLS venues determined by the organizers.

Weekly RoundUp

Of course early this week when I had time there was no news, then in the last 48 hours when I had a ton of stuff going on there's was a bunch of news.  So lets get caught up all at once.

First the Leagues Cup groups were announced yesterday.  The groups were determined by giving the MLS and Liga MX champs a bye to the knockout round, then the remaining top 15 teams in each leagues were seeded opposite each other.  So the best of those 15 MLS teams got the worst of those 15 Liga MX teams, second-best got second-worst, etc.  The Rapids were not one of the 16 best teams last season.  The way they seeded the remaining teams was to break them up into regions (West, Central, South, East) and then seed them so the best MLS team in that division got the worst remaining MLS team in that division in their group.  

The end result of all that is that the Rapids ended up in a group with Nashville SC and Toluca from Liga MX.  The Rapids will host Toluca, and Nashville will host both the Rapids and Toluca.  After the 3 games the top two teams move on to the knockout rounds.  My guess is that the Rapids will travel to Nashville first, then the games against Toluca will happen so that Toluca will know immediately if they are staying in the U.S. for the knockout rounds or are eliminated and can go home.  I don't know much about Toluca, but taking a look at their recent finishes they finished 6th in the recent Apertura and before that they went 15th, 6th, 11th, 11th, 15th (COVID shortened), and 17th.  Based on that they seem very similar to the Rapids.  Sometimes good, sometimes bad, mostly mediocre.  I think this is a group we can get out of, but it will be close games between all three teams.

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Next up, on Thursday Colorado played its first friendly of the season, a 3-0 win over second-division Mexican side Celaya FC.  There was no stream of the match so all we've seen is a few highlights the Rapids have posted.  The goals were scored by Darren Yapi, who got a brace, and Diego Rubio.  Nicholson had the assist on the Rubio goal while Rapids 2 winger Yosuke Hanya got assists on both Yapi goals (Rubio also got an assist on the second.  All the goals were after the 60th minute, and the Rapids made wholesale changes in both the 30th and 60th minute,  Unfortunately the Rapids twitter feed only reported on the 30th minute changes and the starting 11 so we don't know who else was on the field when the team started scoring.  At least 23 players got 30 minutes in the friendly though.

Another note, in some of the camp footage the Rapids have posted from Mexico you can see Drew Moor in coach's gear in the background.  I don't know if he's just helping out during preseason or if he's going to be officially added to the staff (he did get a coach's jacket with his initials on it) but regardless, good to see he's still involved with the club.  Hat-tip to Joseph Samelson for pointing that out to me.

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The other thing that happened this week is rumors about 4 different signings from Europe.  Two have been reported by Brenden Ploen at the Denver Post as done deals, while two others are more rumors.

Dispensing with the rumors the Rapids were linked to two players, French Ligue 1 Reims and Austrian international keeper Patrick Pentz and Cypriot First Division Omonoia and Nigerian international keeper Francis Uzoho.  Being linked with two keepers is a bit unusual, given that Yarbrough has pretty solidly locked up the starting spot.  But Yarbrough only has one guaranteed year left on his contract, with a team-option for 2023, and will turn 34 in two months.  We saw his play fall off last year compared to 20221, but with a much worse defense in front of him as well.  So the Rapids thinking about a post-Yarbrough future isn't out of line right now, but you have to wonder about the wisdom of looking internationally for a position the U.S. does very well in developing, and its a little frustrating to hear about the team looking at future potential over filling in the current holes.  That said, from some of the scuttlebutt I'm hearing, these reports seem to be more about agents using some passing interest to hype up their clients more than true interest from Colorado

The two moves that are expected to be completed in the near future are the signing of Irish midfielder Connor Ronan from Wolves of the English Championship and Danish centerback Andreas Maxsø from Brøndby in the Danish Superliga.

Ronan will turn 25 in about 6 weeks, and came up through the youth system at Wolverhampton (and before that Rochdale), making his first team debut in 2016.  He's only appeared 8 times for Wolves, being sent on a succession of loans, including stints in Slovakia and Switzerland.  Most recently he spent the '21-'22 season with St. Mirren in the Scottish Premiership where he was a regular starter, with 24 starts and 7 goals.  He became known for his long-range shot, scoring repeatedly from outside the box.  He's also on the edges of the Irish national team, having played for all the youth sides and being called to camp last March but has not yet been capped by the full team.

Ronan would add to what's becoming a very crowded midfield with Price, Max, Bassett, Priso, Acosta, and Larraz all available to play in the center.  Price, being a former Wolves player himself, probably helped with a recommendation on Ronan so you hope they could work well together.  At 25 this is also a potential move for the future.

The other rumored "all but done" deal is the most exciting move of the offseason IMO.  Maxsø will turn 29 in a couple of months and is a regular starter for top-Danish club Brøndby.  He joined them at the start of the 2019/20 season from a third division German side and has made 96 appearances in 3.5 years.  6 months after arriving he was named team captain, a position he still holds.  He helped lead Brøndby back to a championship in the 2020/21 season and appeared in the Champions League qualifying stages against Red Bull Salzburg, scoring a goal in the home leg.  He's a fan favorite but has struggled over the last season, so it may be time for a new start somewhere else.  He seems to prefer playing in a back 3, so this may indicate a return to our 3/5-man backline in 2023.

IMO this is exactly the type of player we should be looking at.  He comes from a generally "lesser" league but as a starter for one of the top teams we should expect him to be MLS quality.  At 28/29 he's at the top of his game, and he fills an immediate need in giving us a starter at centerback.  If he's a good as he appears to be I expect him to be a regular starter this season.

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Last, but not least, I wanted to comment on the news from VOX Media, who owns the SB Nation sites including Burgundy Wave, yesterday.  Their decision to pull back on MLS sites is a disappointing one, and leaves good writers for Rapids coverage like Matt Pollard and Joseph Samelson in limbo.  I have written for them off and on over the years, paid in nothing but publicity (that's a statement, not a complaint), and its great to have a central place for Rapids coverage like Burgundy Wave.  I haven't always agreed with their take on things, and depending on who was running it at the time I was more or less involved, but I as really looking forward to what Matt and Joseph were going to do this season.  Hopefully they can come up with a workable plan to keep it running.