Midseason Review Part 2

In Part 1 we covered the players and their salaries.  AS a follow-on to that the Rapids announced today that Zack Steffen has had shoulder surgery and will be out 5-6 months while he recovers.  That means best case scenario he could be back for the playoffs but most likely he's done for the season.  Given his contract and that he's in a team option year for the sprint season there's a good chance he's played his last game in burgundy.  We ride with Nico Hansen the rest of the season.  Now in Part 2 we're going to cover Matt Wells and the season as a whole so far.

Wells came in with a very specific idea of how he wanted to play and he's sticking to it, sometimes to a fault.  The players clearly have bought into the style.  That includes playing it out of the back, pressing on defense, and not being afraid to get physical.  There have been times where Wells has felt a little too stubborn about his style, but then there are times (like the Minnesota game) where he shows himself able to adjust his tactics and surprise the other team.

We covered the issues with the lack of discipline in the write-up of the Dallas game.  I have no problem with a team being physical, I remember the #RapidsThugLife days.  But being aggressive and being out of control are tow different things and the Rapids under Wells are teetering on that line.  I've also notice that Wells seems to have a higher opinion of the talent on the Rapids compared to the rest of the league than seems justified.  I like that he has a system and he's teaching the team to work in that system.  There have been coaches in the past who either had no system or their system was 'park the bus and hop'.  But the system has to work with the talent you have, and I'm not sure this one does.

To that end, lets look at the numbers.  So far the Wells' Rapids are playing at 1.07 PPG through the first 15 games.  Over a whole season that would be 25th (out of 31) in Rapids history.  Of course he's a new coach taking over a team that was struggling and trying to change their style of play.  How does his first 15 games compare to other coaches taking over the Rapids after 15 games?

1. Robin Fraser - 2019/2020 - 1.67 PPG*
2. Chris Armas - 2024 - 1.47 PPG
3. Pablo Mastroeni - 2014 - 1.47 PPG
4. Gary Smith - 2009 - 1.4 PPG
5. Matt Wells - 2026 - 1.07 PPG
6. Oscar Pareja - 2012 - 1.07 PPG
7. Fernando Claivjo - 2005 - 0.94 PPG
8. Anthony Hudson - 2019 - 0.6 PPG

* - Fraser is the only one to take over midseason, and then had to deal with the COVID cancellations and the MLS Is Back tournament, so I don't know how helpful this number is

Those are all the permanent coaches hired for the Rapids by KSE, and if you set Fraser aside Wells comes down right in the middle.  But its the middle of a pretty average-to-poor group.

Now there's one more factor in this, and that's the Rapids schedule.  Colorado has played a brutal schedule so far, both in the number of games and the quality of opponents.  They averaged one game every 5 days over the first half(ish) of the season.  Not only that but 9 of the 15 were on the road and one of the 6 home games was a home game in name only.  Add in 3 Open Cup games and that's a lot.

On top of that the quality of opponents has been significant.  11 of the 15 games we've played have been against teams currently in a playoff spot.  We've played 6 of the 9 current Western Conference playoff teams on the road.  We've also made 2 of our 3 Eastern Conference road trips already.  Really we only have 3 tough road trips left.  We have to go to San Jose, Dallas, and the Galaxy.  We do have a trip to the East left, Columbus, but that's no further than Portland.  Every other "tough" game is at home (unless we make the USOC Final, which would be a tough road game).  Colorado has the third easiest schedule left in the league and that's before taking into account the home/away splits.

So, where does that leave us on Wells?  I think its a mixed bag that needs more data.  Namely, how does the 9 games coming out of the break go?  5 of the 9 are at home with the 4 road games all against teams not in a playoff position.  Of the home games only 2 are against teams in a playoff position.  One is LAFC, a tough game no matter what, and the other is the second leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup, which is a must win no matter the quality of FSL.  The other games are against 3 of the 4 worst teams in the West and a home-and-home against San Diego, just in front of us in the standings.

After those 9 games we are one week out from the USOC semifinal and some decisions will have to be made.  If we doubled our point total, getting 16 points in the 9 games then we'll be back on a playoff pace (barely) and we will have to choose how to balance the two competitions.  Anything less than that and its time to write off the season and go all in on the USOC.  If we come out of the break like bats out of hell and pick up 20 points or more we can probably write-off a league match or two to focus on the semifinal.

Success this season hinges on either taking advantage of the easy schedule remaining, or winning the Open Cup.  Ideally we do both.  If we miss the playoffs and we don't make the USOC final its another lost season.  Even making the final and losing while missing the playoffs seems like a disappointment.    The Rapids have done well enough to put themselves in position to have a good season, but can they execute to get there?  

Player Salaries & Midseason Review Part 1

A few weeks back the Players Union had their annual salary drop but we were going through so many games I didn't have a chance to review it.  Now's a great time to do that, and we're going to combine it with a mid-season review.  We'll go (roughly) position, based on how they're listed on the Rapids website, and go over each player's salary and how they're doing compared to that.  Each player has two values, the first is his base salary, the second is his guaranteed compensation in 2026.  some of the contract and option years are guesses as the contract were signed before the season change was announced, so I'm not sure if a contract thru 2028 is through the 27-28 or the 28-29 season.

Goalkeepers:

Zach Steffen: $1.1M/$1.1M - Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

I don't think its any surprise to say that Steffen isn't living up to his price this season.  By some measures he's a bottom 10 keeper in MLS this season, and he's been injured.  Nico Hansen hasn't been lights out but he's been better for cheaper.  The Rapids should expect to decline his option this offseason.

Nico Hansen: $160K/$160K Contract Thru: 2027-28 Option Years: 28-29, 29-30

As mentioned Hansen hasn't been great but he's been fine, and at almost a tenth of the price of Steffen.  I'd understand if the Rapids didn't want to name him the #1 going into 2027 (at least not yet) but he should have a shot to compete for the role along with whomever they bring in to replace Steffen.

Adam Beaudry: $113K/$115K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

Beaudry is a work in progress.  Loaned out for this season he's still getting U-20 callups.  As a homegrown its worth continuing to see how he grows.

Central Defenders:

Rob Holding: $1.2M/$1.2M Contract Thru: 2026

Holding has been better than I expected this year, so much so that his salary seems reasonable.  He gives veteran presence to what has been a young backline this season.  He'll be 31 at the end of the season and out of contract.  I'm not sure I want to bring him back for 7-figured, but if he'd take a high 6-figure salary I'd consider giving him a 2 season deal, maybe with a 3rd (28-29) as an option.

Lucas Herrington: $200K/$235K Contract Thru: 28-29, Option Years: 29-30

Obviously the find of the season and one of the best deals in the league.  I did not expect anything this good from an 18-year old moving over from the A-League.  His contract length is pretty much meaningless as it would be absolutely stunning to see him here by the time the 27-28 season starts.  If he plays in the World Cup and plays well we might have a hard time seeing him again in a Rapids kit, but the FO needs to do whatever they can to keep him at least through this season for the USOC run.

Noah Cobb: $130K/$130K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

Cobb has been a good backup that has had to play more often than I'd like due to fixture congestion.  He'll be 21 next month so he's got plenty of room to grow and I think he has a good skillset.  I'd like to see him extended by a couple of seasons.

Ian Murphy: $400K/$448K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

Who?  6 minutes of action this year.  If that's all Wells sees in him we should decline the option and release him at the end of the season.

Outside Backs:

Reggie Cannon: $750K/$842K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

Cannon does a lot of things fine and nothing well.  He's essentially an acceptable MLS outside back being paid a TAM salary.  That doesn't work.  At the same time nobody has claimed the right back spot so there's a chance for him to have a real impact in the second half of the season.  If he doesn't it ight be worth thinking about a buyout in the offseason.  At the very least I think he's done in Colorado after next year's sprint season.

Kosi Thompson: $140K/$145K Contract Thru: 2026

He's a backup being paid like a backup.  I would hate to think he's the best we could do for a starter, but I'm not saying we give up on him either.

Keegan Rosenberry: $300K/$300K Contract Thru: 2027

Keegan is taking the Drew Moor "veteran presence on the bench" role and that's fine.  He's earned that and he can help us out being a late game sub and a very occasional spot starter.  I'm not sure how well he fits into Wells' system but that's not really what you're looking for out of him at this point.  His role is to just protect a lead late.  I'm even fine if they give him another contract at 32 if he wants one.

Miguel Navarro: $498K/$549K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

Navarro hasn't shown yet he's been worth the "Acquire from Fire, loan to Talleres, sell to Talleres, buy from Talleres" cycle he went through but as a MLS player he's good enough to justify what we're paying him and to compete for the left-back spot.  He's in the prime of his career at 27 so I don't know that we'll see much more than this from him, but that's still better than a lot of left backs we've tried since we sold Sam Vines (the first time).

Jackson Travis: $125K/$128K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

Travis is lucky he's a homegrown because otherwise I'm not sure he'd have a shot of sticking on the roster after this season.  For every good thing he does he does something bad.  Both he and Navarro seem to have a discipline problem too.  Again, left-back has been a tough spot for us but I think we can do better.

Central Midfielders:

Paxten Aaronson: $2M/$2.23M Contract Thru: 29-30

Aaronson's play has been a recurring topic on the blog this season.  When he's on he's earning his money and looks like the DP we signed.  He's just not on enough.  5 goals and 4 assists since he got here and he went 5 games in a row without any goal contributions in April.  He sees himself as more of a 6 than an 8, which means goal contributions aren't everything, but he's too invisible for long stretches for the highest paid player on the team and the highest cost to acquire in team history.

Hamzat Ojediran: $800K/$882K Contract Thru: 28-29 Option Years: 29-30, 30-31

The best thing you can say about a defensive midfielder is that you don't notice him when things are going well and you don't notice him when things are going badly, for different reasons.  That fits Hamzat the Destroyer this year.  He's had a couple of good offensive contributions and when our defense has broken down I've never seen him being the reason.  I'm a little concerned about how he dropped out of the starting XI the last couple of games, I'm hoping that was just due to the number of minutes we played.

Josh Atencio: $463K/$463K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

For the first 2/3rds of the season so far I was pretty frustrated with Atencio.  He was not good more often than not and I was wondering what Wells was seeing in him.  The last week or two before the break he really stepped up though and had multiple good games.  Maybe it was just a matter of time for him to find his right spot.  He still takes the occasional stupid card but if he can keep his level like he was showing as the first half wrapped up he should be pushing for starting minutes.

Connor Ronan: $510K/$562K Contract Thru: N/A

The N/A above is because there are multiple reports that the Rapids and Aberdeen have agreed to terms for Ronan to move back to Scotland when the window opens in a week and a half.  Aberdeen is still working out the final details of the contract with Connor but there's no expectation that the deal will fall through.  So Ronan has played his last game in burgundy.  He stood out as somebody who could actually play on the awful 2023 team but he could never reach that level of impact again, possibly because the roster got better around him.

Wayne Frederick: $113K/$113K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027, 27-28

When Wells and Smith made the decision to go with Frederick as the creator and sell Bassett a lot of eyebrows were raised but so far they've been right.  Both Cole and Wayne have 2 goals but Frederick has 5 assists to the former homegrown's 2.  And Frederick is about an eighth of Bassett's salary.  Wayne is going to turn 22 later this month and he still has more to learn, but I'm somewhat confident when he starts now compared to last year when I thought it was a waste.  Like a lot of this team he needs to be smarter, see the red card he took from the bench against Dallas.

Wingers:

Ted Ku-DiPietro: $500K/$556K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

Starting with two of the U-22 players.  Unfortunately KDP is made of glass.  At this point I think he's missed more games than he's been available for since we acquired him, coming off an injury, last offseason.  If he can stay healthy for any length of time he seems to have some real talent, but as the saying goes the best ability is availability.

Alexis Manyoma: $654K/$712K Contract Thru: July '26 (loan)

Another U-22 player.  Manyoma was brought in on a loan fee with a big purchase clause last summer.  2 starts, 15 appearances, 1 goal. Rumor leaked today that the Rapids won't exercise the purchase clause and he'll return to Estudiantes during the World Cup break.  The right move.   Another Padraig Smith summer-loan special.

Dante Sealy: $150K/$168K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027

Sealy is a 23 year old making sub-$200K that came in with the expectation (due to his acquisition cost) of being a starter and contributor.  He hasn't met that expectation but I'm not sure how much you can blame him for that.  Clearly a purchase for the future, it was just by a team who needs to be winning now.

Georgi Minoungou: $113K/$113K Contract Thru: 27-28 Option Years: 28-29

See Sealy, Dante.  Another high priced acquisition who's not yet ready to be a starter/contributor, though he's a bit closer than Sealy.  He's got the same problem as Jonathan Lewis has, in that he's not afraid to take anyone on, even at time where he should really be passing out of trouble.

Ali Fadal: $113K/$113K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

Been on loan

Forwards:

Rafa Navarro: $1.39M/$1.45M Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28

The first half MVP.  8 goals, 4 assists.  Tailed off a little bit at the end but he was asked to play so much.  1575 out of a possible 1650 minutes.  He was subbed out of the Toronto game with 6 minutes left, and he came into the Union Omaha USOC game in the 69th minute, and otherwise he played every minute of every game, league and cup.  Its not a surprise he only had 2 goals in the last 7 games, but both were in wins.  Another one who could be pursued in this upcoming window but the Rapids have to keep him.

Darren Yapi: $795K/$820K Contract Thru: 28-29 Option Years: 29-30

Yapi got a new contract, one he earned.  Its a little high for what he contributes but as a U-22 player it doesn't hit as hard as it appears.  3 goals and 2 assists so far, on pace for double-digit goal contributions.  I'd like to see him step it up a notch after the break and really give us somebody to rely on without Navarro.

Alex Harris: $88K/$90K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

Had one start and 3 late game sub appearances.  Hasn't done much but you can't expect much at this point.  Good that the coach has enough confidence in him to get him on the field.

Kimani Stewart-Baynes: $115K/$116K Contract Thru: 2026 Option Years: 2027, 27-28

One appearance for 9 minutes.  He looked to be a rising star and got looks from the Canadian Nats, but he hasn't been in their picture at all leading up to the World Cup   I think he's released at the end of the season.  

Sydney Wathuta: $88K/$88K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

One bench appearance this season

Mamadou Billo Diop: $88K/$88K Contract Thru: 27-28 Option Years: 28-29, 29-30

2 appearances, 17 minutes.  Too soon to tell anything.

Bryce Jamison: $113K/$126K Contract Thru: 2027 Option Years: 27-28, 28-29

Been on loan

Donavan Phillip

Been on loan

What I draw from all of this is that we have enough 'replacement level' MLS players, but not enough game changers, and some of the players we're paying to be game changers (Aaronson, Steffen, Cannon) aren't getting the job done.  That matches our results where we can (generally) handle the bad-to-average teams but the good teams are running us over (for the most part).  Our talent isn't high enough to hang with the big dogs. 

This got really long already so I'm going to end it here and come back sometime in the next couple of days to do a part 2 about the coaching staff and where the team sits.

Book Review: Around The World In 80 Clubs

Last week Paul Watson's new book, Around The World In 80 Clubs, was released.  Watson is the co-host of The Sweeper Podcast, a great look at football across the planet, from the islands of Oceania to the lower leagues of Poland and everything in-between.  He also has served as a manager of multiple clubs, those being the Pohnpei State team and the national team in the Federated States of Micronesia, he helped get Bayangol FC in Mongolia started, and he consults for Thimphu City in Bhutan. Watson wrote about his experiences in Micronesia in Up Pohnpei.  Needless to say this is a very different view of football than what you normally see.

In Around The World In 80 Clubs Watson pulls together interesting football stories from across the globe.  If you're a regular listener to The Sweeper many of these will be familiar to you but this format allows him to provide more detail.  For those of us who didn't jump on the podocast right away there were plenty of new stories as well.  He separates the stories into six sections

• A Tough Place To Go - Clubs that are just hard to get to, like Saaremaaa and Hiiumaa, two island clubs in Estonia who once played their match on a ferry between the islands
• One Game At A Time - Teams with long losing (or winning) histories, such as the American Samoa team made famous in 'Next Goal Wins'
• Club Versus Country - Sides that got embroiled in situations due to their nationality, like Antigua Barracuda who played in the USL but got stuck playing all their home games in the States
• The Twelfth Man - Clubs with noticeable fan antics of experiences, including the miracle run of Bodo/Glimt last season
• Lost the Dressing Room - Sides with notable administrative gaffes, for example the Finnish women's team who recently called up the wrong Ruuskanen
• Good Team On Paper - Teams that are more than just football, like Forest Green Rovers, the world's greenest club (and the favorite club of the author, as well as our own Matt Pollard of Burgundy Wave)

Over 163 pages Watson tells 80-ish stories of professional clubs, amateur sides, and national teams and none of them are the type you're going to see on SportsCenter or Soccer Saturday.  The book is an easy read, I whipped through it in 4-5 days of reading it at lunch and before bed.  If you're like me and love the game because of how its a common language across the planet its a treasure trove of laughs and smiles and not a few head shakes.  If you're more interested in who wins the Champions League each year or where Bernardo Silva is going to end up this is probably not what you're looking for.

I got a copy a couple of days early because as a Patreon of the Sweeper Podcast Paul offered us signed copies.  Unfortunately the shipping to the U.S. (Watson is in the UK) was prohibitive but when I pointed that out he offered to send me one of his author copies.  That's exactly who he is though, he was the person responsible for organizing the Federated States of Micronesia kit sales in 2023 which kind of kickstarted the recent fad of Oceania nations getting into the kit game (of which I have taken far too much advantage of).  He and cohost Lee Wingate clearly enjoy the work they do for the podcast and bring in other people working to tell these lesser-seen stories, like Getting CONCACAFed's Jon Arnold.  I highly recommend the podcast if you're interested in this side of the game.  And just recently they did their own kit which I had to get in on.

Everyone Needs Two Months Off

Saturday night was ugly.  Its clear everyone, the players, the coaches, and even the fans, needs some time off.  18 games in 90 days works out to a game every 5 days and this team looks exactly like a team that's gone through a gauntlet like that.  Not only that, but only 4 of the 15 league games in that time were against teams who are currently not in a playoff position, and 9 of the 15 were on the road.

In this game Dallas only had 3 touches in the box, and won 2-1.  Two stupid fouls led to two penalty kicks and that's all Dallas needed.  Were the fouls soft?  Yes, absolutely, especially the second one.  Was their contact ?  Yes, in both cases.  They did not need to be PKs, but they weren't, technically, wrong.

But more important than being soft they were completely unnecessary.  On the first the back line has any danger handled.  Then Aaronson tries to make a defensive play at the top of the box, misses the ball, and catches the foot of the Dallas attacker.  Dallas' player goes down like he was shot (no, that's not a JFK reference) but the reality is that if Paxten doesn't make the challenge Herrington is in a perfect spot to step up and snuff out any danger.  Likewise on the second call the Dallas attacker is actually dribbling backwards and Georgi flies by, sticks his leg out to make a challenge, again gets nothing but the lightest touch on the attacker (who again drops like he's shot), and its another penalty.  If Minoungou does nothing the Dallas attacker is taking the ball back to a less dangerous position.

These kind of mental errors happened elsewhere as well.  Miguel Navarro is one yellow from suspension and in the 70th minute just lined up a Dallas player looking at a long ball and took him down with a shoulder charge.  Easy yellow and now he sits for the first game back.  Then in the 88th minute he does it again (though not quite as hard).  You can see the ref think about going for a second yellow and then deciding otherwise but it would have been justified.

That wasn't even the worst of it though.  In the 87th minute, after being subbed off and sitting on the bench, Frederick along with a couple of other players were haranguing the Assistant Referee about time-wasting by Dallas (which they were doing).  He obviously said something because either the AR or the 4th Official (who had come in to break things up) summoned the center cover and he was holding out his yellow card on the jog.  When he got over to Wayne though Frederick obviously said something way over the line because he demonstratively pulled his red card out and showed Frederick the door.  Wayne clapped him on the way off, which is just throwing more fuel on the fire.  So he's out too when we come back from the break.

Oh, and you noticed I haven't named the ref.  It was Ismail Elfath.  I point this out because he's the top name on CONCACAF's referee list and going into the World Cup has a real shot to be the center ref for the World Cup Final.  There's no guarantee of course.  He has to have a good World Cup. the right teams need to advance (or not advance) and there's always politics involved..  But it would be a big surprise to see him not work at least a quarterfinal and probably at least a semifinal.  Obviously every ref can have bad days and I thought his handling of things wasn't as good as I've seen in the past, but do these guys really think they can hide obvious fouls from a ref of his level?  That complaining to a center like Elfath is going to get them anything but a card?

These guys are making dumb mental errors and its costing them.  Of course, Matt Wells wasn't on the sideline for this one because of the number of cards the coaching staff has already gotten this season.  So maybe a better example needs to be set.  Colorado has a rep in this league now, averaging 14 fouls a game and a staff that's mouthy.  That's something they're stuck with and will have to adjust to going forward.  Good teams don't put refs in a position to beat them.  The Rapids are not a good team right now.

Man of the Match: Rob Holding.  I had a hard time picking somebody this game.  The guys that combined for a gorgeous goal were the guy who got stupidly red carded from the bench and the two guys who gave up unnecessary PKs.  So I went with Holding both to represent the good job the defense did in keeping Dallas from doing anything dangerous outside of the PKs but also because he had the initial line-splitting pass to spring the attack that led to the goal.

A note about what's coming here over this two month break.  I've got a new book review for you later this week, and then we're going to circle back to the salary drop from last week and merge that into a mid-season review.  I'm going to try to take a small break over the next couple of weeks too.  Then as we get into the World Cup itself I'm aiming to do something I don't think anyone else has ever done, an all-time ranking of Rapids kits.  I might drop in some general World Cup thoughts as well, and probably point out a few World Cup kits I like too.

Final Game Before The Break

This long run of 18 games in  just under 13 weeks ends tomorrow with our final match before the two month World Cup break.  Tomorrow our old friends Dallas are in town and are more rested then we are, not having a midweek game.  Regardless they've struggled against us in recent years so hopefully that continues.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30pm and there's a fireworks show after the match.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

Coach Availability:

OUT: HC Matt Wells (yellow card suspension)

Yeah, the numerous yellow cards to the bench have caught up with us.  Wells has to sit out because of them and can't be involved in pregame or halftime.  I'm sure he'll set the lineup but after that its on the shoulders of assistant coach Ally Harris.

Miguel Navarro is also one yellow from suspension.

I have a feeling hat a lot of guys are going to be running on fumes after the high of Wednesday night.  We need one more game out of Rafa and Herrington (and lets hope its not the last game in burgundy black for either of them) as they're irreplaceable but I wouldn't be surprised if they don't go 90.  Everyone else is going to be on heavy rotation I expect.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  I almost put down a 2-2 draw, if the teams were coming off equal rest I'd like our chances to get a result here but with the added minutes I don't think we'll be able to keep up.

The Streak Is Broken!

Going into last night the Rapids hadn't beaten a MLS team in the Open Cup in 20 years.  They hadn't beat a MLS team in any knockout competition in 10 years*.  Well reset those counters because the Rapids pulled off a bit of an upset with a 2-0 win over San Jose that probably wasn't that close.  Goals right before half from Yapi and Navarro held up in what was a sluggish second half and we're on to the semifinals for the third time in our history and first time since the Miami team were still called the Fusion (1999).

* - The Rapids got 3rd place in the Leagues Cup after facing Philly in that game, but technically that game was recorded as a draw with Kicks From the Mark deciding who got 3rd place and the CCC spot

Early on Hansen came up with a big double-save to keep things scoreless though I'm not sure the first one was going in and I'm not sure how much he knew about the second one (which was very much on target and hit him in the shoulder) but after the first 15 minutes San Jose went somewhat quiet.  They had possession and corners but couldn't turn them into shots.  Meanwhile Colorado played its way into the game.  Rafa got a goal called back for offside (a call I still don't understand), then in the 39th minute Sealy found Yapi with a cross that he finished for a 1-0 lead.  6 minutes later it was the Earthquakes called for handling in the box and Rafa made it 2-0 heading to the half.

The second half was two tired team but Colorado was at home and had the momentum.  By the time San Jose started finishing shots it was too late and the shots they got weren't dangerous.  Nobody wanted to jinx things but it felt pretty confident the Rapids would see this out and they did.

With the win the Open Cup will be back at the Dick for the semifinal...in September.  Between the World Cup and the Leagues Cup that's the first open spot on the schedule.  September 15th or 16th the Rapids will host St. Louis while Columbus will host Orlando in the semifinals.  The two winners will face off in the final on October 21ist, hosted by the Columbus - Orlando winner.  Looking at the teams and the standings today you have to figure the East semi winner is probably the favorite given the home field advantage (particularly if its Orlando) but the Rapids are the best placed team in the standings of the four.  In fact they're the only one averaging over 1 point a game so far.

One note on the semifinal is that Nico Hansen goes in one yellow from suspension.  Its a long-time and a lot of games between now and September but we'll have to see how that plays into the lineup.  Do you start Hansen with the risk that he could pick up a yellow and be suspended for the final if we win?  Do you start Steffen knowing that Hansen would the be sure of being available for a possible final?  Nico is the only Rapid in this position, barring a red card in the semi everyone else would be available for the final if we get there.

Looking at the schedule in August/September we'll host FSL the last weekend of August, then a week layer we go to Columbus, go to Austin in midweek, and then host Montreal.  Then St. Louis in the semifinal, then we host Seattle on the weekend.  So another run of 5 games in two weeks.  After that there are only 8 games left in the season, and should we make the final it would be ANOTHER 5 games in two weeks where we host San Jose and Minnesota, go to Portland, go to the Final, and go to San Jose.

What this means is that once we get through (and win!) the Rocky Mountain Cup the week before Labor Day we may need to take stock of where we are and our realistic chances to make the playoffs and make any noise there.  If we're barely hanging on to s spot or are on the outside looking in the right play, in my opinion, is to punt on the regular season and go all in on the semifinal.  St. Louis, despite what they did to us a week and a half ago, is not a good team.  We should beat them at home, especially if we rotate the roster to put out a full strength rested side.  Then you're in a final and anything can happen.

This also plays into what moves we might make in the summer window.  If we're being honest, this team is very unlikely to win MLS Cup this year (but so was the 2010 team).  If all we had to play for was the playoffs you could see selling Herrington or Rafa if the right deal came along.  Now?  One game at home we'll likely be favored in from a final?  The Rapids can't sell them without either a loan-back-until-end-of-season option or being 100% absolutely sure they've got a equal or better replacement coming in.  And I mean a "we replaced McMath with Howard in 2016" level sure-thing, not a "we're throwing all the Djordje money at Aaronson as a replacement" move.  Otherwise you explain to Rafa and Lucas that we fully support them taking the next step, but there's no way we can sell them when this team has a shot at its first real success in 16 years.  As soon as this season is over though, we'll get a deal done.

This is already longer than I expected but I've got a couple more things.  First, so we don't end on a negative note, if you watched the broadcast of the game you saw that after Yapi's goal a can was thrown out of C38's section, hitting the San Jose keeper in the head.  This is, very obviously, completely unacceptable.  A combination of C38 leadership, Argus staff, and Commerce City police worked together to identify who threw it.  That person was pulled out of the stands, handcuffed, and escorted out of the stadium by CCPD (and presumably arrested).  Crap like that will not be allowed to stand in our section.

Second, on a better note, I have to tip the cap to Matt Wells.  10 days ago after the St. Louis loss I said tow rite off everything but the Rocky Mountain Cup and the quarterfinal, and I had real doubts about our ability to get either of those done.  Instead he took the team to Minnesota, stole a win, then went into Sandy and at least achieved the bare minimum, which was keeping the damage to a one-goal loss which allows us to win the RMC just by winning our home game.  And he did it by keeping guys enough rested that they were able to come out and control the game last night and get us a somewhat comfortable win.  Now we may collapse in exhaustion on Saturday against Dallas but really, who cares.  He got enough results in the last 3 games that Saturday really doesn't matter.  Any thing there is gravy.

Man of the Match: Darren Yapi.  Lots of choices last night but his well timed goal I think really punctured San Jose's hopes and gave us the belief that maybe was wavering after Rafa's first goal was VARed off.  That set up the second goal before half, at which point San Jose was done.

Quarterfinals

Well this is new.  This happens to be the 2700th entry in this blog and its the first time we're talking about a U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal.  The last time the Rapids made it this far was August of 2007, about 6 months before I opened this place up (USL Seattle slaughtered us 5-0 up in the PacNW).  It took a long time to get back here but this time we get to host. Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm and remember extra-time and PKs are possible late tomorrow night.

That's the upside.  The downside is that we host red-hot San Jose.  Well, they were red-hot when they win their Round of 16 match and were drawn against us, having won all their USOC games and 9 of their first 10 league matches  They then drew their next two games and have lost their last two after that.  This has roughly coincided with an injury to star striker Timo Werner.  He was OUT for their game on Saturday and the word is that he was expected back in late-May but the 'Quakes are being cautious about rushing him back.  That suggests he won't start tomorrow but might be available off the bench?

There's no update for the Rapids on the injury front but I think its a safe bet Steffen is still out and we know KDP is.  Harris was out on Saturday due to illness so hopefully he'll be available.  If so then, barring any injury in training, Steffen and KDP should be the extend of the injury report.  Kosi Thompson will be suspended after his red card against the Switchbacks however.

So the starting XI will really come down to who's rested and who isn't.  I expect Wells to try to get one more game out of Rafa's legs, and Aaronson has been rotated a bit.  Yapi and holding didn't start in Sandy so I'd expect them in, and Herrington is young and we'll probably try to get 90 more minutes out of his legs.  Hansen in net.  The other 5 though?  Anyone's guess.

The winner tomorrow will move to the semifinal in September to face St. Louis, who just beat Houston in penalty kicks.  If its the Rapids they will host the semifinal.  If its the Earthquakes they'll travel to Missouri.  The winner of the semifinal will travel to the winner of Orlando at tomorrow's Columbus-NYCFC match for the final in October.

As always, no prediction for a USOC game.  Its just too hard to tell what the focus will be.  Though that will change should we win as the semifinal and any potential final are clearly going to be a top priority.

The More Things Change...

I was planning to go into a typical writeup of the Rapids once again failing in Sandy, something the doesn't seem to change no matter how many times we change coaches or players.  However Matt Doyle summed it up nicely in his weekly recap column ay TacticsFreeZone.  Side note, go give Matt a subscription, he's doing the best job covering every team every week out there.

A couple of things I’ve been thinking about since Matchday 2 for the Colorado Rapids:

1. They have a lot of guys who, uh, let’s just say “aren’t great passers of the ball.” But they are committed to building from the back. How’s that going to work for the long term?
2. Head coach Matt Wells is very committed to not only building from the back, but to playing ultra-physical, fast and furious, high-pressing soccer. Is there going to be 1) buy-in, and 2) attrition?

He's right, on both counts.  He goes on to point out that Jackson Travis casually passing back and losing the ball led directly to FSL's first goal and the like of energy and press played a large part in FSL's second goal.  The positive side of things is that he believes (and I agree) that there has been buy-in from the roster on Wells' system so its not a desire problem, its a talent one.

Looking at those two goals, on the first Travis is just too casual with his backpass and it gets deflected and at that point everyone is out of position and scrambling.  Really, at this point, Travis shouldn't be starting.  Wells made the decision to go with a Herrington-Navarro centerback pairing and it cost us this goal.  Navarro had a solid game so maybe it was overall the best decision but it did result in FSL levelling the match.

On the second there's just too much open space.  Nobody closes down Sanabria, Aaronson is working his way over there, and he has plenty of time to whip in the cross.  Solans just finds a big space between Herrington and Holding to head it home.  Herrington was on him, then slides over towards Sanabria and Holding doesn't slide as fast leaving a big hole for Solans to sit in.

It wasn't all bad.  We started hot with a quick goal.  A Ronan corner was trapped by Aaronson and pushed back in front of goal where Fredrick hammered it home.  The problem is that after that 7th minute goal there were only two more shots on target, the rest of the game, and none after falling behind.  In fact the Rapids only have 1 goal in the final 30 minutes of a league match this season when trailing (Yapi's 62nd minute goal to level the Miami game at 2).

Part of this is because FSL completely took Rafa out of the game.  He only had 3 touches in the box and 1 shot on target.  Hard to get very far in attack when your MVP is not in the game.  My hope is that this was just a really good defensive effort and not an indication that we've pushed Navarro to hard.  We need one more game out of him on Wednesday.

The good news is that by keeping it to a one goal loss (as I predicted) then the Rapids just have to win the home game in August, by any score, to keep the Rocky Mountain Cup.  If we can't beat FSL at home then we don't deserve to keep the Cup.

Man of the Match: Wayne Frederick.  What little offense we had did run through him and of course he got the goal.  I was wrong about him, he's still developing but he's a lot better than he showed last season.

This Needs No Introduction

But we're going to do it anyway.  We all know what tomorrow is, the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup.  We're over in Sandy at KKK Slogan Field for this one (I had to resist the urge to use this as the header picture).  A reminder of the rules.  Most points, most goals, then its essentially a tie and the current holders retain the Rocky Mountain Cup.  That's us this year.  So in practice that means a one goal loss or better means we just have to win the home game in August to retain the Cup.  Anything better than that just makes the job easier.  Kickoff for the rivalry clash is at 7:30pm.

Good luck to the travelling C38 support that leave the Dick at 6:30am tomorrow.  Its never fun having to enter the dark place.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), M Alex Harris (illness), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

QUESTIONABLE: M Josh Atencio (concussion)

Miguel Navarro is still one yellow from suspension.  Atencio travelled with the team to Utah and will be available but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't start.

Not sure on the wingers or the right back, but the rest feels fairly solid.  I do think Yapi will start but we could push back into that 2-striker formation too.  Regardlss some guys need to dig deep for this on and on Wednesday for the Open Cup.  If there's nothing left for Dallas in a week, so be it.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  FSL is, sadly, a better team than us right now and they're at home.  But I do think Wells has the team in the right mentality to not get blown out in Sandy like we've seen far too many times.  Rafa gets an important goal to keep it close and we hang on with everything to get out with just a one goal deficit and et up for a win or go home type game in August.

Smash And Grab

As I predicted Minnesota and Colorado played to a 1-0 result last night.  As I failed to predict though, Colorado came out on the winning side.  For only the second time this season the Rapids lost the possession game but still managed to claim the three points.  As the saying goes, that's why they play the games.  With the win the Rapids move up into the final playoff spot (on a tiebreaker) going into the lat week before the World Cup break.

Random Thoughts:

• Last week (And before that too) I questioned if Matt Wells could adapt or if he was too wedded to his system.  Last night he came out in a 5-4-1 that morphed into a 4-2-2-2 in attack and didn't focus as much on playing out of the back.  In the post-game conference he said "To go out and play our normal shape tonight would have setting the guys up to fail". a very positive sign from Wells.
• That said, some things don't change.  Namely our physicality.  24 fouls last night, an average of 14.6 a game this season.  We're on pace for about 500 fouls this season.  The team record is 581 in 2000, 18.1/game so we probably won't hit that but this is the highest rate since 2007 (though up through 2007 foul rates were incredibly high across the league).
• A nicely worked goal by Aaronson and Navarro.  That's what we need to see out of our DPs.
• That's Navarro's 8th goal, halfway to the single-season team record, and his 12th goal involvement, just under halfway to that team record.  5 more goals will put him second all-time on the Rapids scoring list, passing Paul Bravo.  He's currently 15 behind Conor Casey for the record.
• Honestly a more fair result would have been 1-1.  Minnesota had a couple of big chances, hitting the crossbar in back-to-back shots within a minute, first by James Rodriguez and then by ex-Rapids Anthony Markanich.  They also had a goal called back due to a (clear) offside early in the second half.
• In fact the Rapids were out-possessed, out shots, out xGed, and were equal on corners.  They once again only had 2 shots on target.  But if one goes in and you pitch a shutout that's all you need sometimes.
• Shoutout to Rosenberry for a great game.  For his first start in a while he marshalled the back well.  Something you love to see.
• Herrington bounced back well from the struggles on Saturday.  He is so good.  He was named to the MLS team of the matchday.
• Miguel Navarro was the only player risking suspension for the game on Saturday and he got out without a card so everyone will be available (barring injury).
• Speaking of, Saturday is the big one.  The Rocky Mountain Cup in Sandy.  As long as we keep it to, at worst, a 1 goal loss then all we have to do is win the home match in August to retain the Cup, but I want more of a buffer than that.

Man of the Match: Nico Hansen.  A big shutout when we needed it, Hansen was well-placed on a number of Minnesota shots last night.  He also commanded his area well.  For you other old-timers he has a bit of Bouna Coundoul in him, occasionally going for short walkabouts when you wish he didn't but it didn't cost us last night.,

Rapids Start Tough Two Game Road Trip

Before we get started, the MLS Players Union annual spring salary release was today.  Given that we have 4 games in the next 11 days I'm not going to get around to covering it in detail until we reach the World Cup break, but it is out there.

Now, on to tomorrow's game.  Colorado makes the trip to the Land Of A Thousand Lakes to take on Minnesota United.  The Rapids are on a 5 game winless streak while United is coming off a home draw against Austin.  With a win Minnesota could jump to 3rd in the West, depending on other results, while a Colorado win could get them back into a playoff position.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), D Rob Holding (red card suspension), M Josh Atencio (concussion), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Hamzat Ojediran (yellow card suspension)

Also Miguel Navarro is one yellow card from suspension.  Some tough decisions are going to have to be made tomorrow.  With two big matches in the week after it I think the Rapids should punt on this match and focus on the Rocky Mountain Cup this weekend and Open Cup next Wednesday.

Unlike what I said above I expect Wells to go for it as best he can.  The fullbacks could change but the rest feels fairly solid for the XI.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Hard to see the team getting much of anything in this one, though Minnesota doesn't have a high-powered offense.  It will likely play out similar to Saturday, except without the win (and hopefully without the red card).

Punchless

Another game, another two shots on goal total (and one of them was an Aaronson free kick that almost certainly would have been off the bar if it wasn't parried), another loss.  And this against a team that was giving up close to two goals a game coming in and scoring less that one.  Its becoming clear that the league has figured out how to shut down Wells' system and he has yet to adjust.

The other talking point in this one was the Holding red card.  It was a weak call at best and completely bogus in reality.  Never should have been a red.  That said the Rapids were adrift even before the card so I don't think it changed the outcome.

With the 1-0 loss the Rapids drop to 12th in the west on PPG, tied with San Diego, and 23rd in the league over all.  They are 6 points back of the non-wild card playoff spots and their three remaining pre-World Cup break league matches are against 5th, 6th, and 7th in the West.

Random Thoughts:

• The Rapids now have 12 shots on goal in the last 5 league games, while giving up 8 goals.  FotMob is showing 9 big chances in those 5 games.  We're out possessing the other team.  Generating corner kicks, keeping the ball around the box, and yet can't turn that into quality chances and goals.
• The one St. Louis goal was a combination of some well placed bounces and some inexperienced play.  Holding got beat to a header, the ball bounced past Herrington, and Lucas learned that his speed won't always save him.  With a little more experience he's a step or two further back and shuts down the breakaway before it starts.  Then Hansen came out and got nothing but air, not even making it difficult for the attacker to go around him.  Again, a lesson learned.
• I'm not sure how Durkin's red card was a second yellow and not a straight red.  The ref had a bad night.
• FotMob also had Aaronson with the best rating on the night, which is damning with faint praise given that nobody rated 7 or better.  Its just not enough out of him though, he had two good passes in the 72nd minute that set up shots and the free kick that wasn't going to be scored and that was it.
• If Minoumgou doesn't miss the header at the end of the game we're probably having a very different discussion but he put it way off target.  For all his good ball work he needs it to turn into something more.
• Ojediran picked up a yellow so he'll be suspended on Wednesday along with Holding being suspended for his red card.
• The focus in this one should really be on Wells.  5 games into this winless streak and we've scored 3 goals in the 5 games and are on a 237' scoreless streak.  Its time to admit that his plan isn't working and change something.
• We now he to Minnesota and Sandy.  Two tough games before what is likely to be our biggest game of the first half of the year, the Open Cup quarterfinal.  At this point I'm fine if we bag the league for these next two weeks and focus on not getting blown out in Sandy (to keep the Rocky Mountain Cup alive) and beating San Jose next Wednesday.  If that means we lose in Minnesota and to Dallas at home, so be it.  Pick up the pieces after the World Cup break with hopefully a winnable semifinal at home in September.

Man of the Match: Miguel Navarro.  Nobody showed out particularly well but the other Navarro had a solid game at a position where we've been struggling.

Time To Turn Things Around

 

This is the first time back at the Dick since we lost Ryan Sabin from a medical incident at the Open Cup match.  As you can see above Centennial 38 will be remembering him in a number of ways tomorrow. Please join us.

The Rapids finally got a full week off to rest and get healthy, only to turn around and start another 5 games in the next two weeks leading into the World Cup break.  We're home against St. Louis tomorrow, on the road in Minnesota on Wednesday, we have the Rocky Mountain Cup first leg in the dark place next weekend, then back at the Dick for the USOC Quarterfinal against San Jose, and finally finishing up with a home game against Dallas.  The good news it that everyone but possibly Herrington will get almost two months off after that.

Looking at that schedule tomorrow is actually an important game.  Its probably the most winnable game of the group and its first when we're the most rested.  Its almost a must-win.  After that you have to think the focus will be on the Rocky Mountain Cup and Open Cup matches, with Minnesota and Dallas being lower priority.

This is also our first league match at our home in just under a month (since Miami was over at Empower).  Kickoff tomorrow is at the normal 7:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Josh Atencio (head), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Wayne Fredrick (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: D Jackson Travis (leg)

Hamzat Ojediran is also one yellow card from a suspension.  Travis did play last week when he was listed as questionable so I wouldn't expect him to start but certainly be on the bench.

We're still hurting for fully healthy central midfielders which is why I think we'll see some form of a 2-striker setup again.  Hansen over Steffen might be wishcasting but I think its time.  The rest feels fairly solid.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Navarro and Minoungou.  St. Louis is a bad team with only 9 goals scored in 10 games.  This is a 'get healthy' sort of game and we need to treat it that way.  Put them away early, maybe rotate some players in the second half, and don't struggle too much to get the three points.

Dynamo Power Down Rapids

Colorado stumbled into Houston on Saturday but put out a punch-less attack and succumbed to a laser shot from outside the box for a 1-0 loss.  Neither team played great, you could tell they were both at the end of a long stretch of 7 games in 3 weeks.  With the loss the Rapids are now 1-1-4 in their last 6 league matches.  With 5 games coming up in 2 weeks Colorado has to figure out how to play without their top lineup, and their top guys have to get better.

Random Thoughts:

• In each of the last 4 league games the Rapids have had over 57% possession.  They've got a combined 10 shots on goal with that possession.  They've allowed 7 goals in those games.  Its really hard to win when over 4 games you only have 3 more shots on target than goals allowed.
• This is the first real test for Wells.  Fixing this dichotomy before the long World Cup break and keeping us in contact with the group fighting to avoid the wild-card game is a must.
• Really can't complain about the goal allowed.  You would hope somebody could step up and shut the shot down but Steffen wasn't going to save it and it was just a well hit ball.
• That said, Steffen almost had a horrendous gaffe parrying a ball into the goal (it bounced just outside the line) and got caught in no-mans land again.  Even if you're not going to make Hansen the #1 giving Steffen a week or two off to get sorted out is a must.
• By halftime the Rapids were really out of midfield options.  Losing Atencio to injury when we only had 4 fully healthy midfielders meant the second half was going to be a struggle.  Losing Holding didn't help Wells' flexibility either.
• I know he's dealing with a leg injury but we need to talk about Paxten Aaronson (again).  He had the one shot on goal after the Rapids were down, but other than that you wouldn't have known he was on the field.  We need more for the price paid.
• This was an ugly game from both sides, you could really tell how tired and beat up the squads were.  I understand the need to compress the schedule around the World Cup but its hurting us.
• And with that, this is the end of far too many game previews/game/game reviews.  Barring any news I'm taking tomorrow off and maybe the whole week until the Friday preview.

Man of the Match: Noah Cobb.  Had to come in off the bench and partner with Herrington, which didn't work to open the season in Seattle.  This time they locked things down and Houston never really had a good look at goal.

Dynamo, Rapids, Running Out Of Gas

Before we get started there was some sad news from Centennial 38 and the Rapids today.  Ryan Sabin, one of C38's tailgate crew, passed away after a medical incident at the Open Cup game Wednesday night.  His Rapids family will miss him terribly and my thoughts are with his loved ones.  The club will wear black armbands to remember him tomorrow and there will be a moment of silence before the next home match on the 9th.

After 7 games the Rapids reach the end of this 3 weeks of 3 games with a trip to Houston.  Houston's trip to Commerce City started this sequence but the good news is that they've played just as many games as we have, and are equally beat up.  This is the last *scheduled* game between the teams in the regular season, but both are in the Open Cup quarterfinals and if both win in 2.5 weeks then the Dynamo would make one more trip to Colorado for the semifinal.  Both teams went 120 minutes in their Round of 16 match on Wednesday (though the Dynamo didn't need PKs) so they're equally tired at this point.  Kickoff tomorrow is ay 6:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Wayne Fredrick (leg), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Connor Ronan (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: M Paxten Aaronson (leg), M Georgi Minoungou (leg)

Yeah, that's a lot of midfield missing.  The Dynamo have 3 players out, including Vines, and one questionable.  Both teams are limping into this one.

That's every midfielder that's played at least 90 minutes this season and who's not on the injury report.  Maybe Wells goes to a 5-3-2 or something but my bet is that it will look something like this.  We need the guys like Herrington and Navarro to dig deep one more time, though if the game gets out of hand either way they'll be quick subs.  I know I said I wanted Hansen to be the starter in net, but with him plying 120 minutes plus a shootout on Wednesday and with a home game next week, I think its probably best to make that change against St. Louis in front of a friendly crowd.

Prediction: 2-2 draw.  Goals by Navarro and Yapi.  We beat this team 6-2 three weeks ago at home, but we were healthy and rested.  Neither is the case now.  I think we're a better team than them but I think we're going to run out of gas.

Path To The Final Is Open

Last night's game was fairly ugly to watch.  The Rapids certainly played down to their opponents while the officiating was rough.  In the end though the home side got the result and moves on to the quarterfinals for the first time in 20 years.  The Burgundy Bots took the lead twice, gave it back twice, and finally won in 7 rounds of PKs.

This morning the draw was held for the rest of the competition.  The 8 remaining teams (all MLS this year) are split into a West pot and an East pot with the winners meeting in the final.  Colorado was grouped with San Jose, Houston, and St. Louis, while Columbus, NYCFC, Orlando, and Atlanta make up the East.  For the quarterfinals the Rapids will host San Jose while S. Louis hosts Houston.  Then if Colorado beats San Jose they'll hos the StL/Hou winner in the west semifinal (if San Jose wins then the StL-Hou winner hosts them).  The final will be hosted by the winner of the eastern group.

So Colorado gets four straight home games in the USOC then travels to the final, if they get that far.  This is our best chance to win it since we reached the final in 1999.  But what stands in our wat is the hottest team in MLS, San Jose.  Top of the league, won 9 of 10 games this season, only allowed 6 goals.  If, somehow, we get by them then you would think we would be favorites to win the semis.

The semifinal will be May 19th or 20th at the Dick.  The prior weekend we're in Sandy for the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup and the following Saturday we're at home facing Dallas in our last game before the World Cup break.  San Jose has Dallas at home the weekend before and a trip to Portland after.  If I'm the Rapids I look to get (at least) a draw in Utah and punt on the Dallas game.  Should they beat San Jose the semifinal wouldn't be until mid-September, with the final in October.

Back to last night's match, some thoughts:

Random Thoughts:

• Last night really showed the gap between the leagues to me.  The Rapids went out there without two of their biggest names (Steffen and Aaronson), pulled two other notable starters at half (Cannon and Ojediran), played pretty badly the hole game, and were down a man for the last 15 minutes plus all 30 minutes of extra time, and it still took a PK for a team that was USL Champs two years ago and a playoff team last year to use that man advantage.  There's a lot of talk about how the Springs kept it close and played hard, but even with that they were struggling to stay in the game.
• Speaking of that man down, I don't know what Thompson was thinking.  Its a clear red as he swept his back leg through the legs of the Switchback.
• A couple of other big events,  First the Georgi goal to take the lead in extra time has a hint of offside, but I don't know if MLS VAR calls it back.  The EPL might, as they sit there and draw lines, but eyeballing it off the screen like MLS I don't know if there's enough there to overturn.
• Meanwhile the Switchbacks PK late in extra time seemed like BS on the 8-bit scoreboard in the stadium, but watching it on a real screen today I'm leaning towards it being the right call.  It does appear like it hit Atencio's arm and he had it out away from his body.
• Speaking of, Josh can go sit on the bench next to Steffen now.  He was involved in both Switchbacks goals.  On the first he's standing 2 yards away from an unmarked Springs attacker in the box and doesn't close him down, instead he's bouncing around like he's hoping for an outlet pass to start a break, but Hamzat is another yard past him and would be the better player to take that pass.  So then its an easy put away for that attacker.  And he missed his PK in the shootout.  A number of fans think he had a good night passing, but he wasn't involved in either Rapids goal.  Being a good passer that doesn't lead to anything isn't enough to make up for repeated defensive mistakes.
• There were a few players that seemed to struggle and revert to old habits.  Yapi seemed off (especially in the first half) and Cannon struggled at times.  To be fair to Reggie it was his first game back off of injury.
• The Rapids had a hard time adjusting to the ref.  Sometimes you get a ref that is going to be ticky-tack about things and you have to deal with it, not just complain.

Man of the Match: Rafa Navarro.  Yeah, I know, I'm becoming a broken record on this.  But he had the assist on both goals, scored his PK, and has played all but the first 69 minutes against Union Omaha in this 7 games in 19 day stretch, including the full 120 last night.  He's going to need the World Cup break when we get there.

I-25 Derby In The Open Cup

Tomorrow night the Rapids are going to try to do something they've never done at the Dick.  Qualify for the Open Cup quarterfinals.  The last time the burgundy boys made it past the Round of 16 they were the black and blue boys and were playing their last season at Mile High (though both USOC gamers were on the road that year) and it was the last time we beat a MLS team in this competition, taking down FSL 1-0 in Utah.  This is also the 10th anniversary of the last time we played the Switchbacks, beating them in USOC play, so its only appropriate that they're our opponents tomorrow night for this all-Colorado battle.  If Minnesota beats San Jose in the match about to kickoff the Colorado teams were be the furthest west teams left in this year's competition.  Kickoff tomorrow night is at 7pm.

I'm still not going to predict a lineup for this one.  We're on our 6th game in 18 days, with another one to come this weekend before we finally get a midweek break.  Its really going to be a matter of who has legs left to go in this one.  The Springs have only played 3 in that same time, so they'll be better rested.  I do expect Nico Hansen to get the start in goal but outside of that its an open question.

Prediction: 3-1 win.  To be blunt, tired or not, a team that ran Houston out of its place 6-3 a couple of weeks ago should no be losing to a lower-league team in the same stadium.  I'm sure the derby nature of this game will keep it tighter than we're comfortable for longer than we want but in the end the greater talent of the Rapids should prevail.  Of course, the Rapids have found ways to lose the games plenty of times in the past (Orlando, Atlanta, New Mexico...).

Soaked

I predicted a tow goal loss in Vancouver, and that's what happened, but the score line flattered us.  With the exception of about 5-10 minutes in each half Vancouver had full control of this game and it never felt like we were going to get anything out of it.  In the end a week against 3 of the toughest teams in the league ended with 1 point, which shows you how far the Rapids have to go still.

Random Thoughts:

• This game could have easily been 3-0, or 5-2, or anything in-between.  Vancouver missed multiple great chances, and had a goal disallowed while our goal probably shouldn't have counted.
• On our goal the ball appears to hit both Sealy's arm and particularly Navarro's arm right before it went in the goal.  Now only one angle showed that and there's enough of a potential optical illusion there that I can see why VAR didn't send it down, but I'm 95% sure we got away with one there.
• It was a particularly bad miss when in the second half Vancouver had a goal disallowed for a similar handball.  Had Vancouver not come out on top they would still be screaming about those calls.
• On the Rapids goal, Ojediran played probably the best pass of the season to set up the attacking sequence.
• Meanwhile on the disallowed goal the only reason it even hit the attackers arm is the Herrington came from way back to make a pinpoint tackle to deny the attacker the easy shot.  Gorgeous play.
• You know last time we went to Canada and Steffen had a horrible game that cost us points and I said if he had one more bad game it would be time to bench him?  Well this game wasn't as bad as Toronto, but it wasn't good.  He looked slow on the first Vancouver goal, though I'm not sure he could have saved it anyway, and was completely caught in no-man's land on the second.  He also struggled to catch anything all night, giving up a number of rebounds but none that turned out to be dangerous.  He just looked like he was laboring all night.  I think its time for Hansen.
• Outside of the gorgeous Herrington play our defense struggled all night.  Holding was cooked regularly and neither Thompson or Navarro looked great.  And the less said about Rosenberry on the third goal the better (nothing Keegan could do, he just doesn't have the speed anymore).
• For his second start in a row Aaronson was subbed out in the second half while the team was down a goal.  That's not what you want to see from somebody of his stature/price
• In the 3 games last week the Rapids gave up 6 goals.  Their offense combined for 8 shots on goal in those 3 games.  Really hard to win with a dichotomy like that.
• The Rapids had a majority of possession in each if those three games, but couldn't turn it into anything.
• After this rough week the Rapids face 5 teams around or below them before the World Cup break.  They're at Houston, Minnesota, and FSL, and face St. Louis and Dallas at home, They should be looking to get 7-9 points out of those (including at least 1 in Sandy) and staying in a playoff position going into the break.
• Before that though, they've got the Switchbacks at home on Wednesday night for a place in the Open Cup Quarterfinals, A round they've never reached wearing burgundy.

Man of the Match: Rafa Navarro.  Easy way out on this one but with the goal he leads the league in goals + assists.  If he scores in Houston on Saturday he'll be halfway to the team season-goal scoring record (16, Casey '09, Rubio '23) with less than a third of the season done.  If he gets and goal contribution he'll be just under halfway to the team record as well (25, Mihailovic '24).

H2O

The rapids of the Fraser River meet the whitecaps of the Pacific near Vancouver

Water meets water north of the border tomorrow as the Rapids meet their aquatic counterparts the Whitecaps in Vancouver.  Colorado is coming off a good 0-0 draw in LA on Wednesday while the 'Caps are rested after their game last weekend.  There are 27K expected in BC Place for this one as this is the last home game for Vancouver until August due to FIFA taking over their stadium for the World Cup.  Kickoff is at 8:30pm MT.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Josh Atencio (yellow card suspension), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Connor Ronan (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: D Jackson Travis (ankle)

I would be very surprised if Travis plays given the turf at BC Place.  Reggie Cannon is back and will be in the gameday roster according to Wells, but I wouldn't expect him to start.

This is really just a guess based on who's available and who's played what this week.  Everyone is going to have to dig deep, especially down the center spine, to come up with another 90 minutes.  Maybe Rosneberry starts?  Or Yapi goes again since he didn't start last Saturday?  Do we risk Cobb in the middle instead of Herrington?

Prediction: 0-2 loss.  Vancouver is rested at home and is the best offense in the league.  We're tired and couldn't score against a good team on Wednesday.  I just don't see much in this one for us.

 

Our First Point From The Bank!

It wasn't always the most exciting soccer, but a point is a point and for good chunks of the game the Rapids dominated play.  A bit of a statement from this Rapids team to go into LA and get their first point in a scoreless draw against a very good LAFC front line in Bouanga and Sonny.  We do have areas to improve on the attack against these tough teams but a big victory for the defense in this one.

Random Thoughts:

• Both teams hit the post, but the closest anyone got was LAFC's shot that went off both the crossbar and the post.  We got lucky with that one.
• The Rapids had the best overall looks though, with Lloris having to make two great saves and a stretched out but somewhat routine save in the first half.
• At halftime the listed xG from Apple was 0.25 for Colorado and 0.0 for LAFC.  xG is not a great stat at a game (or half) level but 0 is still 0 no matter the time period.
• I was a little worred about having Thompson, Travis, and Atencio in the starting XI given that they've all been up and down this year, but to their credit they all had good games, particularly Atencio.
• Wells made it sound like Travis' injury wasn't that bad in the post-game, but I have my doubts we see him on the turf in Vancouver.
• Another player we won't see is Atencio who picked up his 5th yellow (in 7 starts!) and will be suspended.  Even Pablo is giving some side-eye to that collection.
• Herrington made the MLS team of the (mid) week with a 100% pass accuracy on 120 passes.  I would be shocked if we're not hearing about a sale within the next 365 days.  If he shows up in the World Cup I'd cut that down to 120.
• The Rapids had 73% of the possession, but only 2 shots on target.  I'm sure Wells was emphasizing that area of improvement in the locker room post game.
• The flip side of that though is that with 73% of the ball it doesn't give the opposition much time to attack, and Colorado only gave up 1 shot on target all night.
• The focus now shifts to Vancouver, likely an even tougher game as the Whitecaps didn't play midweek and will be well rested.  They'll also have 27K in the house for their last home game until August, due to BC Place being used for the World Cup.  A draw there would be a very solid week on the road.

Man Of The Match: Rob Holding - He's been the quiet center of the back line this year but in this one he really stepped up to put out any fire that was developing.  I wasn't originally sold on him at the end of last season but he's been the veteran presence the kids like Travis and Herrington have needed so far this season.

Our Least Favorite Road Trip: LAFC

Colorado heads out on the road for a double-game week.  They'll be up north in Vancouver on Saturday but first they have to go somewhere they hate, LAFC, tomorrow night.  The Rapids have never won at the Bank and LAFC is looking particularly tough this year, having given up just the first goals of the whole season on Sunday.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 8:30pm 

Player Availability:

Out: M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Conner Ronan (leg)

Cannon and Miguel Navarro return from injury but in the case of Cannon I'm not sure he'll be up to jumping back into the starting XI after missing a month but Navarro should be good to go.

This is really a guess.  I have no idea how Wells is going to rotate for his first true 3 game week and knowing he'll be facing a rested Vancouver on the weekend.  Even if its this lineup it could be a 4-4-2, a 4-5-1, or a 4-3-3.  I don't see Atencio starting after his struggles on Saturday and I think both Travis and Thompson have failed to grab the right back spot, so if there's any time Keegan gets a start it feels like its this one.  I expect Rafa and possibly one of the center backs to be subbed out in the 2nd unless its a tight game.

Prediction: 0-2 loss.  Colorado might have the second best offense in the league but LAFC has the best defense by far, and they're impossible to beat at home (at least by the Rapids).  I'm going to have to see this team do more than lose to good teams before I predict a result on the road, especially at the Bank.

Messi'ed

Well, that's a day we'll not forget for a while.  The second largest crowd in league history and the largest to ever watch a soccer game in the state of Colorado saw the Rapids outplay Inter Miami for most of the game but make just enough mistakes to leave them in a spot where the GOAT could do GOAT things and steal the three points.

Random Thoughts:

• First, on the "event" if the game.  When this was announced I ripped into the Rapids for the decision to move the game.  The Rapids gave an interview to the Denver Business Journal last week which revealed that it was the league that really forced the move as part of the "bid" to land this game.  I have many thoughts about what was revealed in that article, few of them good, but considering we have 5 games in the next 12 days its going to be a while before I get back to them.  But I owed it to the FO to make that point clear.
• That said, I'm glad we don't play at Empower regularly.  It didn't help that the Nuggets and Rockies were both in town, but getting to and from the stadium is a much bigger pain from the north than the Dick is.  RTD only running the G Line every half hour is annoying.  Also being in the back row of the lower bowl felt further away than the concourse at the Dick.
• All in all I'm sure the league got what they wanted out of this game and it was a big feather on the Rapids FO cap, but I'd be quite happy if we never did it again.  We've built a home and our own supporter culture out in Commerce City.  That's where we should be.
• Onto the game itself.  The Rapids insist on playing it out of the back and they're good enough to do that against the bad and average teams in the league.  But not against the good teams.  The 4 teams we've beaten are all outside the playoffs.  3 of the 4 teams we've lost to are playoff teams that we gave goals to from poor play out of the back (the 4th, TFC, is a playoff team but that game goes into its own special category).
• On the first goal on Saturday Atencio took a heavy touch on a hot pass from Steffen in the box and was left with no choice but to go in on the attacker.  Live I thought it was a PK, on replay it was lighter than I thought, but you can't put the ref (or VAR) in a position to make that call.  Messi, of course, finished the PK.
• The second goal, right before half, is unforgiveable.  You're taking a throw-in in the attacking half with 20 seconds left in stoppage time.  There is no way that should turn into an opposing goal.  Instead Atencio plays not one but two back passes, Aaronson gets muscled off the ball, and somehow Thompson, Holding, and Steffen are beat by a single Miami attacker to the ball.  Complete breakdown because of being so devoted to playing it out of the back.  Miami had 2 shots on target in the half and went into the locker room with a 2-0 lead.
• Full credit to Wells and whatever he said at half because the home side came out flying and equalized in a 4 minute window around the 60th minute.  First Navarro got his 6th goal and league-leading 10th goal contribution of the season with a nice solo run right up the middle where he broke a defender's ankles.
• Then Yapi followed it up with almost his first touch of the game by taking down a great long-ball from Herrington and slotting it home.
• At that point it felt like we had momentum and might find a winner.  But in the 79th minute Messi did Messi things.  A turnover in midfield broke him free down our left side.  Despite being closed down fairly well and having multiple defenders to shoot through the GOAT's left foot found a way to put it in the upper corner.  There's maybe one other player (Son) in the league who makes that shot, and even that's questionable.  You tip your hat and move on.
• It was obvious the big crowd and the opposition made a number of the Rapids nervous in this one.  They settled down as it went on but passes weren't as clean as they have been, etc.
• The decision to take Aaronson out down a goal at home was a choice.  He didn't have a great game so I understand it, but when you're biggest ever signing is being pulled in the biggest match since he's arrived its not a great sign.
• Ojediran is having a quality, quiet, season.  I rarely notice him but I also rarely notice us having any problems in that area.  Though having him take out Messi in this one would have been worth the red.
• Steffen might have been able to clear that second goal but other than that there's nothing he could have done in this one.
• Atencio had a bad game.  I don't know who you put in midfield with Ojediran, Aarons, and Fredrick at this point but I don't think its him.
• Now the schedule gets hard.  Road trips to LAFC and a rested Vancouver, then 3 of the 5 after that on the road as well before the World Cup break.  We're only going to have played 6 of the 15 games before the break at home.  Just staying in contact should be the goal.

Man Of The Match: Rafa Navarro.  The goal was class and exactly what was needed coming out of the locker room.