The More Things Change...

I was planning to go into a typical writeup of the Rapids once again failing in Sandy, something the doesn't seem to change no matter how many times we change coaches or players.  However Matt Doyle summed it up nicely in his weekly recap column ay TacticsFreeZone.  Side note, go give Matt a subscription, he's doing the best job covering every team every week out there.

A couple of things I’ve been thinking about since Matchday 2 for the Colorado Rapids:

1. They have a lot of guys who, uh, let’s just say “aren’t great passers of the ball.” But they are committed to building from the back. How’s that going to work for the long term?
2. Head coach Matt Wells is very committed to not only building from the back, but to playing ultra-physical, fast and furious, high-pressing soccer. Is there going to be 1) buy-in, and 2) attrition?

He's right, on both counts.  He goes on to point out that Jackson Travis casually passing back and losing the ball led directly to FSL's first goal and the like of energy and press played a large part in FSL's second goal.  The positive side of things is that he believes (and I agree) that there has been buy-in from the roster on Wells' system so its not a desire problem, its a talent one.

Looking at those two goals, on the first Travis is just too casual with his backpass and it gets deflected and at that point everyone is out of position and scrambling.  Really, at this point, Travis shouldn't be starting.  Wells made the decision to go with a Herrington-Navarro centerback pairing and it cost us this goal.  Navarro had a solid game so maybe it was overall the best decision but it did result in FSL levelling the match.

On the second there's just too much open space.  Nobody closes down Sanabria, Aaronson is working his way over there, and he has plenty of time to whip in the cross.  Solans just finds a big space between Herrington and Holding to head it home.  Herrington was on him, then slides over towards Sanabria and Holding doesn't slide as fast leaving a big hole for Solans to sit in.

It wasn't all bad.  We started hot with a quick goal.  A Ronan corner was trapped by Aaronson and pushed back in front of goal where Fredrick hammered it home.  The problem is that after that 7th minute goal there were only two more shots on target, the rest of the game, and none after falling behind.  In fact the Rapids only have 1 goal in the final 30 minutes of a league match this season when trailing (Yapi's 62nd minute goal to level the Miami game at 2).

Part of this is because FSL completely took Rafa out of the game.  He only had 3 touches in the box and 1 shot on target.  Hard to get very far in attack when your MVP is not in the game.  My hope is that this was just a really good defensive effort and not an indication that we've pushed Navarro to hard.  We need one more game out of him on Wednesday.

The good news is that by keeping it to a one goal loss (as I predicted) then the Rapids just have to win the home game in August, by any score, to keep the Rocky Mountain Cup.  If we can't beat FSL at home then we don't deserve to keep the Cup.

Man of the Match: Wayne Frederick.  What little offense we had did run through him and of course he got the goal.  I was wrong about him, he's still developing but he's a lot better than he showed last season.

This Needs No Introduction

But we're going to do it anyway.  We all know what tomorrow is, the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup.  We're over in Sandy at KKK Slogan Field for this one (I had to resist the urge to use this as the header picture).  A reminder of the rules.  Most points, most goals, then its essentially a tie and the current holders retain the Rocky Mountain Cup.  That's us this year.  So in practice that means a one goal loss or better means we just have to win the home game in August to retain the Cup.  Anything better than that just makes the job easier.  Kickoff for the rivalry clash is at 7:30pm.

Good luck to the travelling C38 support that leave the Dick at 6:30am tomorrow.  Its never fun having to enter the dark place.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), M Alex Harris (illness), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

QUESTIONABLE: M Josh Atencio (concussion)

Miguel Navarro is still one yellow from suspension.  Atencio travelled with the team to Utah and will be available but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't start.

Not sure on the wingers or the right back, but the rest feels fairly solid.  I do think Yapi will start but we could push back into that 2-striker formation too.  Regardlss some guys need to dig deep for this on and on Wednesday for the Open Cup.  If there's nothing left for Dallas in a week, so be it.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  FSL is, sadly, a better team than us right now and they're at home.  But I do think Wells has the team in the right mentality to not get blown out in Sandy like we've seen far too many times.  Rafa gets an important goal to keep it close and we hang on with everything to get out with just a one goal deficit and et up for a win or go home type game in August.

Play The Rocky Mountain Cup In Laramie

 

Today Major League Soccer announced the details of the 'sprint season' being played in the spring of 2027 as the league transitions to the fall-to-spring schedule starting in the fall of 2027.  The basics are:

• 14 games against the 14 other teams in your conference, 7 home, 7 away
• Regular season played February-April
• 8 teams from each conference make the playoffs
• Playoffs are single-game knockouts played inside your conference in May
• MLS Cup between the Western and Eastern Conference playoff winners
• MLS Cup winner and 4 other teams qualify for 2028 CONCACAF Champions Cup
• All 16 playoff teams qualify for 2028 Leagues Cup

When I saw the sprint season was going to be 14 games I was pretty sure it was all going to be intra-conference.  What this means though is that the sprint season Rocky Mountain Cup is going to be decide on one game, and either the Rapids or FSL will have home field advantage for that game.

Unless they don't.

I immediately joked when the announcement came out that they should play that game at Ralph Stocker Stadium in Grand Junction.  Its almost exactly midway between KKK Slogan field in Sandy and the Dick in Commerce City.  It currently hosts NCAA DII football for the Colorado Mesa University Mavericks.  The reality is though it probably doesn't meet stadium requirements for the league or the union, it only seats 8000, and its probably not equipped for a full broadcast on Apple.  Its a funny idea but for any number of reasons its not realistic.

But then I thought a little more about it and realized there is a stadium that could host a MLS match as a "neutral site".  War Memorial Stadium in Laramie, Wyoming, home of the Wyoming Cowboys.  As a G5 school I'm sure the facilities are good enough to pass muster with the league and union for a one off game, and their football games are regularly broadcast from there as part of the Mountain West Conference so I'm sure it could handle an Apple broadcast.

Yeah, this sounds a little silly at first, but this whole 'sprint season' is a little silly.  Why not try something different during it?  Make it an event.  Has the state of Wyoming ever hosted a top-level professional competitive match in a team sport?  Certainly they've never hosted a competitive soccer match.  Work with the league to promote this as reaching out to new fans, not to mention the whole college population of the University of Wyoming.  Baseball has had success with their single game Field of Dreams and Little League games each season, this could be a (non-repeating) version of that.

Plus, imagine playing the Rocky Mountain Cup at the highest stadium in the country.  Its a perfect match.  Yes, its closer for Rapids fans (a little over 2 hours from Commerce City versus a little under 6 from Sandy) but not so far that I would expect Salt Lake fans not to make the trip.  One team would be giving up a home game, but if they do it right you can split the revenue equally and minimize that hit, or maybe even favor whomever is losing the home game.  Give supporters groups from both sides their regular seats behind each goal and make a true production out of it.

Will this happen?  Probably not.  Neither owner seems like somebody who would push this and I'm not sure the league would be all that excited, but if the fans get behind it and make it something they need to consider we might see something happen.

Playoff Hopes On The Line In The Dark Place

Since last week's post more results have gone against us in the playoff race.  Obviously our draw was not ideal, but San Jose and FSL also won and Dallas got a draw.  Houston did lose but they were always a long-shot anyway.  This leaves the Rapids still in 8th place but the margin has significantly decreased.  San Jose is only 2 points back, Dallas is also 2 points back, with a game in hand, and FSL is 3 points back with a game extra to play.  Meanwhile Austin and Portland are both 4 points ahead, and Austin has an extra game left too.

I'm still thinking 42 will be enough for somebody to get into the playoffs, but it may come down to tiebreakers.  The Rapids are at 40 so one win should be enough.  Potentially 2 draws would be too but that's a lot less sure after this past weekend.

This weekend the Rapids face FaKe SaLt LaKe at KKK Slogan Field in Utah.  A loss would not only keep us from that playoff total, it would allow FSL to pass us in the standings and still have that game in hand.  A win would put us at a point that FSL could only pass us if they won their final two games and we lost to LAFC, and even then just on a tiebreaker.  A draw leaves us in limbo, not enough points to feel confident in the playoffs and within 3 points of both FSL and Dallas with their games in hand.

When it comes to the Rocky Mountain Cup things are a little more in our favor.  With our one goal win earlier this season the pressure is on FSL to get a result to claim the Cup.  A Rapids win or draw means the Cup stays in Colorado.  Even a one goal loss means we keep the Cup as the teams would be tied on points and goals.  Only a multi-goal loss would allow that group from the wrong side of the Divide to claim the trophy.

In the end we, once again, really need a result this weekend.  I really don't think relying on getting a result at home against LAFC is smart.  The idea of Son and Bouanga running at Holding and Maxso is not something that fills me with hope.  So we need 3 points in Sandy this weekend, in a matchup where we historically struggle late in the season.  In the last 10 late-season Rocky Mountain Cup matchups (Sept/Oct games), dating back to 2010, the Rapids have won 2 of them and drawn 2 others.  That means 6 wins for FSL, many of them crushing our last hopes of the season.  Notable though one of the two Rapids wins was the 5-0 beatdown in Sandy in September of 2020.  So it is possible.

Chess Vs. Checkers

The Centennial 38 tifo on Saturday was Armas beating Pablo in a chess match played on the chessboard that is FSL's kit.  We didn't know that it would be a fairly accurate portrayal of the match.  We saw the 4-2-3-1 return with Mihailovic in the middle flanked by Cole and Cabral, and as expected Yapi up front.  While the first half was largely uneventful the Rapids best chance of the game (by xG) happened in the first 10 minutes as Larraz had a great shot saved.

In the second half things picked up, largely due to Armas' subs working better than Pablo's.  In the 58th minute Pablo swapped three players including pulling Diego Luna, the only player on FSL who's scored more than one goal this season.  At that point I started feeling better about our chance to get at least a point out of the game as it seemed unlikely FSL would score.  Three minutes later Armas sent Ted KDP on for Kevin Cabral and our offense got significantly better.

In the 70th minute Cannon, KDP, and Mihailovic overloaded FSL's left side to force pressure into the box.  This allowed Bassett to streak in and pick the pocked of a FSL defender on the edge of a goal area.  He was able to play a shot pass to Djordje who switched it to his right foot and put it far post for the lead.  Notably 5 minutes after the goal Pablo subbed in two strikers after seeing that his park the bus gambit did not work at all.

Both sides had one good look in stoppage time.  Right at the start of extra time Barea got Salt Lake's best look of the night (and by xG the best look of the game by either side) but put the shot wide.  Then 3 minutes alter Sam Bassett and Calvin Harris had a great break into the box but the defense got just enough in the way that Harris had to slow up his run before he ran offside just as Sam played the ball through for what would have been a one on one with the keeper from inside the 18.  If Harris had continued his run knowing Sam could get the pass off through the defense he would have still be onside.  Other than that last minute shot every other shot by FSL had less than a 0.1 xG, while every shot by Colorado had move than a 0.1 xG.  FSL had twice the shots but the Rapids had better shots.

This was a much needed "get right" game, and with another suffering team in St. Louis coming to down we've got a chance to get back up off the mat after that 5 game winless streak.  Especially now that due to LAFC's playoff with Club America on the 31st our 3 game week next week is now just a 2 game week so rotation won't be as necessary.  The LAFC game has been moved to early July (turning that into a 3 game week).  And to win a rivalry game, one where they've taken advantage of us far too often, without two of our three best players (Steffen, Navarro) is a good morale booster for the locker room.

Speaking of the rivalry, the Rapids take 3 points into the second Rocky Mountain Cup game of the season, which will be our last road game of the year.  In order to win the Cup FSL now has to win that match by at least 2, since a 1-0 win would go to the tiebreaker of "whoever has the Cup keeps it", and that's us for once.  Plus by that point in the season who knows what they might be playing for (or what me might be playing for).  The last time Salt Lake went into the final game of the RMC behind the 8-ball needing a result was 2016 where they had to win, a draw or a loss would have given the Cup to Colorado (of course they did).  The last time they came into a game needing a multigoal win was the prior year where they needed a two goal win (thank you Juan Ramirez) and didn't get it.

Man of the Match: Nico Hansen.  Get the call as the third string keeper that you're starting in a rivalry match and put up a shutout without ever really putting a foot wrong?  That's MOTM material.  Interesting that he's apparently moved past Beaudry on the depth chart.  Now that Beaudry is back from injury it will be interesting to see who gets the nod to be Steffen's backup on the bench.

Get. It. Done.

 

Great Sand Dunes National Park

Tomorrow is simple.  Get the three points, take the lead in the Rocky Mountain Cup, stabilize the season.  Anything less and we're looking up from the bottom of a deep hole.  We're going to have to do it without one of our top guys, but FSL is suffering too.  No excuses.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30 and the first team game will be followed by the Unified Team taking on their counterparts from Salt Lake as well, with their Rocky Mountain Cup on the line.  The Unifed Team are two-time winners of the RMC and they go for the hat-trick (they only face each other once a season).

Availability Report:

OUT: M Ali Fadal (knee); F Rafael Navarro (ankle)

QUESTIONABLE: GK Zack Steffen

Do not like.  Apparently Steffen is likely to be available but I still don't like the question mark.  And not having Navarro could be crippling.  On the plus side FSL has 3 players out and 4 questionable, though only two of them have had significant minutes this season.

Yeah, I don't like this one much either.  I have to hope Armas realizes things aren't working and goes back to what did work, the 4-2-3-1 with Djordje in the middle and Bassett sitting in the hole behind him.  I picked Larraz over Atencio as I find them fairly equal right now so play the homegrown that understands the rivalry over the new guy.  The wingers are a pick-em.  I'm not sure we have good choices but this seems like the best options.

The key to this one is getting a midfield back and keeping Luna under control.  Awaziem and Maxso have to know where he is at all times, and the midfield cant' let FSL tee off on our goal.  Whatever we get out of Yapi up top is a bonus.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Mihailovic.  FSL breaks our hearts with a late goal to win, again.  Given our run of form and Navarro being out I just don't see where we get points in this one.  Hopefully they can prove me wrong but I'm not getting my hopes up.

I DIDN'T HEAR NO BELL!!!

Was the Rocky Mountain Cup over when the Rapids choked away a lead in the 84th minute in Sandy?  I didn't hear no bell.  Was the RMC gone when we gave up a goal in the first 10 minutes Saturday night.  I Didn't Hear No Bell.  Did we fumble the Cup away when we gave up an equalizer 3 minutes after a 2 hour weather delay?  I DIDN'T HEAR NO BELL!

The Cup was over when Cole Bassett coolly slotted away an 88th minute penalty kick to gave the Rapids a 3-2 lead in the game and a 6-3 lead in the Rocky Mountain competition.  Of course we still had to hang on for 4 minutes of stoppage and we've certainly seen games in this rivalry flip in that time but not on this night.  Post-game the team had a long on-field celebration interacting with the supporters who had waited out the lightning delay for this moment.  I've been physically present for 5 of the 6 times the Rapids have won the Cup (2020 when pandemic kept us out of the stadiums is the only one I've missed) and this is the most engaged and involved I've seen the team celebrating  You can tell how much they wanted this, particularly Chris Armas.  Surprising for a first year coach to be that hyped up for it when somebody like Pablo or Fraser, with ties to the team, weren't (maybe unfair to Fraser given his only win was that weird 2020 year where the celebrations were in the locker room).

Going back to the game itself though it was a rough start.  The early goal by the Utah Soccer Club put the team in a hole and for 30 minutes they didn't look like climbing out of it.  The long-distance shot did fool Steffen a bit with a bounce right in front of him, but he was late to read it and didn't get his arms out to stop it.  He's paid to be better than that.

It took until the 35th minute for the home side to really get into the game.  A relatively non-threatening attack changed quickly when Bassett took a Navarro pass at the top of the box and flicked it over to an unmarked Lewis who buried it for the equalizer.  Suddenly the pressure was on for the burgundy boys.

It only took 4 minutes for that to pay off.  Vines put high pressure on to win the ball and quickly poked it to Bassett in the box.  He quickly laid if off to Lewis again, but this time Johnny crossed it t Sammy who had continued his run and he finished to put the Rapids in the lead in the game, and the Cup.  Colorado kept up the pressure and got another good look before half but couldn't convert.

Then the rains came.  A normal 20 minute halftime turned into almost 2 hours.  I actually drive home to get my car away from the forecast hail, then drove back once a restart team was announced.  Once play was back on a lot of energy had gone out of the building with most of the fans.  FSL struck immediately, and there's not much more the Rapids could have done to stop it.  It was a very well placed ball with two defenders on the shooter.  After that it started to feel like another case of the home side choking away the Rocky Mountain Cup again.

In the last 10-15 minutes of the game though that pressure started to pay off.  The team had more advanced play in the FSL box and had a couple of good chances they didn't convert.  They earned back-to-back corner kicks and on the second a FSL defender was caught with his arm out chicken-wing style and the ball went right off the elbow.  Clear PK.  After Navarro took the ball like he wanted the kick he dropped it into Bassett's hands and Cole left no doubt.  After the game he said that he saw that the FSL's keeper's bottle had penalty tendencies on it for him and Navarro and as soon as he saw it he determined he was goin to go right down the middle, because he was sure the GK would dive based on his note.

Its interesting than the three goal-scorers in this game were the two longest tenured players Basset and Vines (I'm going back to Sammy's original signing) and the 5th longest tenured player in Lewis, who was traded to the Rapids a few months after Anderson signed as a homegrown and Rosemberry was traded here.  3 guys that have suffered through far too many RMC disappointments made sure we wouldn't have another one.

We go into the Leagues Cup  break on 41 points in 4th place in the West.  The Bodmer Line is 44 points so one win the the final 8 games should be enough to make the playoffs.  A home playoff game is probably 52-53 points wo we'll need 12 in 8 to pull that off.  We're currently on pace for 54.  The good news is that 6 of our 8 games are against the teams currently 7-12th in the West and the 7th is against 8th placed Toronto in the East.  The last is against the West leader and 2nd overall Galaxy.  LA, Toronto, 7th placed Portland, and 8th placed Seattle are at home, the games against 9-12 are on the road.

Before that we've got a trip to Portland for the Leagues Cup on the 1st, followed by the Leon game at the Dick on the 5th.  Mihailovic might be back for the latter of the two but it depends on well the Olympic team does.  Going to catch my breath for a couple of days and then we'll get into some late-season reviews.

Men Of The Match: The rare double-MOTM this week.  I have to choose Bassett for having the winning goal in both wins over FSL this season.  But I also have to give Lewis credit for a goal and an assist in this game.

Biggest Game Of The Year (So Far)

After choking away a win of the Rocky Mountain Cup in Sandy with 6+ minutes to play the Rapids have a chance to make up for that with a win tomorrow night.  Any other result and the Utah Soccer Club takes it back home with them.  Both teams are missing key pieces so it should be a fairly even battle, but historically the Rapids have not played to their level in this matchup.  They need to put the history behind them, come out like they have for 174 of the 180 minutes of this rivalry so far this season, and put Salt Lake away before they can break our hearts at the end (again).  Kickoff tomorrow is at the normal 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Adam Beaudry (U.S. U-19 team),  M Kevin Cabral (arm), M Djordje Mihailovic (USA Olympic Team)

Quick note, Beaudry is starting for the U-19s as I write this.  Cabral can't go after his elbow injury as he scored on Wednesday but otherwise all our non-National Team players are available.  That includes Kimani Stewart-Baynes who the Rapids have held back from his Canadian U-20 callup due to the injuries to Harris and Cabral.  They hope to release him to the team on Monday.  Daniel Chacon is also off the IR (and was on Wednesday) though per Burgundy Wave the team plans to bring him along slowly so don't expect to see him in a gameday roster for a while.

Straight-forward.  Put your best players out there and win the game.  These are our best 11 (minus the missing Mihailovic).

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Bassett and Navarro.  Honestly I want to predict a draw.  We've seen this story before, the Rapids have a chance to win this rivalry and fall on their face.  But I can't get over the fact that the Rapids were the better team except for 6 minutes in both games in Sandy.  Both teams are missing their best players from the last game (Arango and Mihailovic), and its not like Djordje was firing on all cylinders back in game 5 when we beat them.  So I'm going to be optimistic and predict a win, but I won't be surprised to be wrong.

Rocky Mountain Cup Available To Win

We don't need a lot of hype for this one.  With a win tomorrow night the Rapids claim the Rocky Mountain Cup.  Any other result means it will be decide in the third and final game of the season here in Colorado in July.  Right now Colorado is up 3 points (and 1 goal on goal differential), so a draw tomorrow means FSL must win in the game in July.  A loss tomorrow and Colorado is the one that must win in July.  Kickoff in Sandy is at 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Kimani Stewart-Baynes (groin)

QUESTIONABLE: M Djordje Mihailovic (heel)

We saw Mihailovic re-injure the heel that caused him to miss the NYCFC game on Wednesday night, where he called for an immediate sub.  The thought was post-game that it was light enough that he could still be available tomorrow.  Looks like its going to be a game-time decision.  FSL has 8 players listed as out or questionable, which will leave them thin in midfield.

Some guys are going to have to dig deep to go a third time this week.  Rosemberry might get the night off, due to being the elder statesman of the squad, but the rest have to be ready to go.  I think if Djordje isn't available then we go back to the 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 we used in NYC.

Prediction: 0-0 draw.  Cole, Oli, and Sam have to make sure the rest of the team, especially the newcomers, realize that this game means more.  Yes its #1 vs. #4 in the West but its also the date the fans circle every year.  Both teams have good defenses and are playing their third goal in a week.  A scoreless draw seems a little optimistic but I think we're going to see a lot of cagey play while the sides try to conserve what energy they have left, and in the end despite good looks from each side we split the points.

Rapids Finally Get 2024 Started With An RMC Win!

It took two and a half games but the Colorado Rapids finally decided to join the 2024 season in the second half Saturday night.  In the process they also frustrated FSL en route to a 2-1 win and reclaiming thee advantage in this year's Rocky Mountain Cup.  Now 45 minutes doesn't erase the other 225 minutes this season (or the 34 games last season) but for the first time in a while there's a bit of hope across the fanbase.  It was a massive win for this club and its fans.

Lets get through that first half though.  It was rough for 30 minutes and not great for the last 15.  We spent more of the first 10 minutes down a man than at full strength due to aa momentary injury to Larraz and a more serious one to Ronan.  One that would force him to be subbed out in the 11th minute for Löffelsend.  For the next 20+ minutes FSL had their run of the game, including a goal in the 20th minute that came right through Löffelsend.  To be fair to Jasper, Mihailovic sent him a ball with no options, at all four cardinal points the closest player was in FSL red.  After the turnover Maxsø seems to have lost track of his man and didn't know he was on his back shoulder, which made the finish from the cross easy.

Colorado slowly worked themselves back into the game and got a lucky break in the 41st minute with a handball in the box by FSL.  Navarro finished the PK (though it looked like Bassett wanted it originally) and the Rapids were a bit lucky to go into the locker room tied at half.  Whatever Armas said or did in their worked, because Colorado was much more focused and aggressive in the next 45.  Bassett finally got on the board in the 70th minute with the Rapids' first goal from open play this season (corner, own goal, PK for the others) and the team managed a combination of good defense and luck to ride out the win.

Other Thoughts:

• I'll admit, 30 minutes in I thought we were looking at another disaster in Sandy and what was likely a lost Rocky Mountain Cup and a cusp of a lost season.  The 2022 and 2023 Rapids would have lost this game.
• FSL was bombing down our left side at will in the first half.  I don't know if the tactics we were playing were pulling Vines out of position or if there was confusion but it was not a good look for Sam.
• Despite being a better team in the second half FSL still had the majority of possession in every 5 minute interval in the half.  That's not a combination that normally leads to a shutout.
• Löffelsend had a rough night and showed why Larraz has been starting the first three games.  He got better as the night went on, though.
• At the end of this one the Rapids were doing to FSL what they normally due to us.  Frustrating them, killing the clock, and working the refs.  Fun to be on the better side of that for the first time in a while.
• Bassett had a great game.  It was a classic Goal Bassett goal where he sets up the initial shot and continues his run into the box to be available for a second chance.  It was also his 100th appearance with the club.
• Good to see Navarro get on the scoresheet.  Only a penalty, but maybe its the jump-start he needs.
• Fernandez got his first start and while he didn't seem to be as involved as you would expect, he popped up at opportune moments to make a play.
• Mihailovic though, still needs to be providing more to justify his DP status & salary.
• There are two more game sin this year's Rocky Mountain Cup,  One in Sandy on Volcano Day (May 18th) and back here in Commerce City on the 55th anniversary of the lunar landing.  Appropriate since this game was on my birthday.  One win or two draws and the Cup is ours.

Man of the Match: Moise Bombito.  I said I'd bring this back when the team changed, and they changed.  A lot of that was due to Bombito's steady play on the back line.  He's gone from college to a Canadian Nat and a MLS starter in a little over a season.

Rocky Mountain Cup 2024

Well, here we are.  Nobody needs to explain what's on the line tomorrow in Sandy.  The first of three games in the 2024 Rocky Mountain Cup and a Rapids team still looking for their first road win since May 6th of last year (at the Galaxy).  We haven't beat FSL since August 21st 2021, and have only won at Questionably Racist Name Field once, the 5-0 shellacking we gave them in 2020 to win the Cup.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30pm, and Apple TV is giving us Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu on the call.  If you know Spanish, or just prefer to listen to somebody you know understands this rivalry even if you don't, Jorge Perez-Navarro and our own Marcelo Balboa will have the call.

Player Availability

OUT: Kimani Stewart-Baynes (illness)

At least this year our injury reports have been short.  Everyone likely to be picked is once again available for Armas tomorrow night.  FSL has multiple people missing due to injury, including having just lost key midfielder Pablo Ruiz for the season.

I haven't seen anything to suggest Armas is going to make a lineup change, so I assume we're going to see the same XI from the first two matches.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Given our long track record its hard to see anything but a loss coming out of this one.  Maybe we surprise and get a 1-1 or 0-0 draw but that's best case.  And if FSL gets 2 its over.

Rapids Lose RMC, Fraser Fired, Smith Throws Him Under The Bus

Ok, buckle in, there's a lot to cover and I have no idea how long this will end up being.  We're going to go in chronological order starting with Saturday's game and ending with Padraig Smith's letter to season ticket holders.

Not that there's much to talk about with Saturday's game.  A 2-0 loss that we were once again never really in.  With that result FSL wins the Rocky Mountain Cup again with a game to play.  That is now 1 win in our last 15 league games, 1 win in our last 18 games in all competitions, and we've been shutout in 9 of our last 10 league matches.  We've been shutout in 15 of our 26 league games this season.  At least Bassett apologized for the result.

Clearly something had to change, and as expected, the ax fell on Robin Fraser this morning.  He leaves the club 3rd in regular season games managed behind Mooch and Pablo and 3rd in pts/game for his Rapids career, behind Smith and Mooch.  It was actually just the last 3 losses that knocked him down from first to third in that stat, before the Leagues Cup break he was just barely ahead of Smith for the top spot still.

Assistant Coach Chris Little will manage the team as interim coach.  Reportedly the coaching search will start immediately, not wait for the offseason.  Still I think we can assume Little will get the last 8 games of the season.

Sadly Fraser had to go.  It was apparent watching the last three games that he had lost the locker room.  There was no drive or energy from this team, and it looked more like 11 individuals on the field than 1 team.  These are things that regardless of talent a coach should be able to implement, and we've seen Robin do this in the past.  Clearly something had soured and he wasn't going to be able to lead this team any longer.

That said, those are all symptoms of the bigger problem, the absolute trash fire that this organization has turned into.  We've covered off the field issues (stadium quality, communications, etc.) before so I'm not going to get into them tonight, but keep in mind everything I am going to talk about is in the context of the rest of the club being an absolute mess, with the only thing working being Rapids 2. There is no clearer example of this than the letter Club President Padraig Smith sent to season ticket holders today:

Excuse me?  This is throwing Fraser under the bus, running him over, stopping, and backing up over him again.  Its a ridiculous abdication of any sense of responsibility for Smith's part in this fiasco of a season and really causes me to lose a lot of respect for him.  Based on the reaction on social media, I'm hardly alone in this assessment.

Before we get into a detailed analysis of this letter I think its time I be open with anyone reading.  Over the last 4+ years going back to the 2019 preseason I've had multiple opportunities to sit down with Padraig Smith one on one and talk to him about the state of the team, his plans, and everything else.  I was always clear with him that I wasn't going to carry water for the FO, and he was always clear with me about what was on the record and what was off the record, and I've always respected that.  I will continue to respect that, as I gave my word.  The opinion I got of Padraig during those one on ones is not the same opinion I get of somebody who would write this letter.  It makes me think that he's a great talker, but doesn't back up his talk with actions.

Let's go through this.  First of all, the idea that "this isn't a decision we took lightly".  Isn't he the club President?  Doesn't the buck stop with him?  He's also the guy who hired Fraser and was operating as the GM until just a few months ago when the promotions happened.  I have a hard time believing that the final call was anyone's but Smith's, and he should step up and say he made the call.

The next paragraph is detailing the success Robin had, which amounts to the club record season in 2021 and one (1!) Rocky Mountain Cup.  Listen, as much work as I've put into the RMC I love to see it taken seriously, but a supporter-run rivalry trophy being the second best result in a coach's tenure is somewhat damming.  Its even more so when you realize that's the only RMC we've won since Padraig Smith and Wayne Brandt took over in 2017.   That 2021 season is also the only home playoff game we've had in that time period as well.  So its a bad look when you can only come up with two things to mention about a coach's tenure, but its a disastrous look when you realize that no other coach under the current leadership can claim even those minimal successes.

Smith then goes on to detail out the current situation and how poor it is, and why that led them to make the change.  Funny thing is, we just got done with a transfer window where it was clear we needed to make changes to avoid this situation, and the best that Smith and Fran Taylor could do is a solid left back and two loan-to-buy players, and they couldn't even get the latter two here in time to help in Leagues Cup.  This after an offseason window that netted us, if we're generous, one MLS quality starter in Maxso.  Gersbach was a waste of a signing, Ronan has potential but would be a backup anywhere else in the league, Cabral was a disaster move that will hurt us for years, and we wasted transfer fees and an international slot on a goalkeeper that can't parry a free kick to keep it out of our net against our rival.

Is any of that mentioned when detailing the current problems?  No, not a peep.  Instead Smith states that this team is capable of "much, much more" than they have shown so far.  Notably both this language and the language he used in that press availability a couple of weeks ago is identical to the language he used when he fired Hudson.  In that case he was proven correct as both Casey and then Fraser came in and took those players to much higher finishes than Hudson was able to.  But now he's suggesting that Fraser is incapable of doing that again?  Is it that Fraser changed, or is it that this group of players is not that group of players?

The next paragraph goes on to flog the success in 2021 again, talking about how they had a systemic approach to build on successes each year from 2018 through to 2021.  Given that Fraser wasn't even here until late 2019 there's some sell-promotion going on there.  The next line is actually admitting that they've deviated from that path since 2021, but then taking no responsibility for that, using a royal "we".  Smith talks about how we need to be a team that plays to its strengths.  I'm not sure this team has any strengths right now.  A team that emphasizes player development.  How many chances has Yapi had this year?  What happened to Toure?  How is Vallecilla's development going?  Where exactly is Abe Rodriguez and Adam Beaudry going to play now that you've signed Ilic?  The next one is a direct quite from the Rapids Way about approaching each game with urgency, boldness, etc. and a desire to win.  Well, I'm not seeing much f a desire to win out of the current players, so I don't know how a new coach is going to change that.

Smith's last line in this section is getting back to being a team that gets results and makes our supporters proud.  First of all, this team has never been a team that's gotten results in any sort of sustained way, and the one time we did, from 2019-2021, was under the coach that was just fired.  As far as being proud, well, its hard to be proud of an organization that won't take responsibility for their decisions, that runs a substandard game day operation, and who has to be reported to the players union for not keeping the facilities in a state that professional players feel comfortable using them.

The letter ends with typical meaningless niceties after that, but I think the point has been made.  As I said at the beginning it was time for Fraser to go, most of the supporters understood that even if we weren't happy about it.  But this letter was insulting in how it placed the blame on Robin, how it took no responsibility, and how it continues a pattern of this organization not understanding the fanbase.  Its more evidence that the Front Office lives in a bubble where they won't talk about bad things and they hope they can keep their heads down, celebrate the once-every-five-years successes, and keep drawing in the casual fan for their "fun night out" 2-3 times a season.  Until that attitude changes nothing else about this team will.

The Only Game Left That Matters

I'm not going to spend too long on this, because we all know what tomorrow is.  Rocky Mountain Cup part 2.  We lost the first game, at home 3-2 so a loss tomorrow means FSL keeps the Cup.  A draw means we need to win our home finale by two to claim it.  A win, which seems very unlikely, means all to play for in the home finale.  If the Rapids want this season to mean anything, to show the fans there's still something to root for here, they have to win this game.  A loss and I think Fraser is fired Monday morning.  Kickoff is at 7:30 on Apple TV.

Availability Report:

OUT: GK William Yarbrough (knee surgery), D Alex Gersbach (tendon surgery), Max (removed from team activities)

QUESTIONABLE: D Keegan Rosenberry (lower body injury), M Jonathan Lewis (lower body injury), , F Diego Rubio (lower body injury) 

I'm not even going to put out a lineup for this one.  Fraser needs to find the 11 players who actually want to try to win this game and put them out there.  As long as one of them isn't Priso.

Prediction: 2-0 loss.  Given how this team has played for the last two months you can't really expect anything but a shutout loss.  Hopefully they surprise us, but I doubt it.

2022 Rocky Mountain Cup Part 2

 An undermanned Rapids squad goes into Sandy tomorrow night needing a win to get the season back on track and, more importantly, win the Rocky Mountain Cup.  A loss means FSL wins it, and a draw leaves the teams tied which means FSL retains it as the current holders.  Colorado really needs the 3 points as well with the playoffs slipping further and further out of reach.  Kickoff is at 8pm and we have 16 games left in our TV nightmare.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price

As mentioned at the end of my prior post, Trusty has been released from his loan to go to Arsenal.

While this isn't the lineup I'd choose its what I expect Fraser to play.  Its really hard to see many other players getting the start.  Maybe Barrios, maybe Vallecilla, but that's it.

Prediction: 1-1 draw goal by Rubio.  FSL has been struggling a bit, which is the only reason I think we can get a point out of this game.  As much as I hate to predict we'll lost the RMC with no Price and no ready replacements for Trusty or Kaye I don't see how we get 3 points tomorrow.  The Cup, and the season, will likely be lost by the end of the night.

Battle Over The Divide

Its that time again, when that team from the other side of the Continental Divide comes to town to get the crap kicked out of them.  Tomorrow FaKe SaLt LaKe is in town for the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup.  We all know what this means, now we just need the team to go out and do what we know they can.  The second leg will be July 9th in Sandy, so its important we put up a multigoal win so we put the pressure on them in the return leg.  Kickoff tomorrow is at the traditional 7pm time.  Game's on Altitude, if you get it.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Ollie Larraz

QUESTIONABLE: D Lucas Esteves

That's a pretty solid injury report.  I mean, I'd love to have Esteves but overall we could be significantly worse off.  Like FSL is, they had to call up two Academy players just to get to 1 players for game day.

This is the lineup that worked in Houston so I'm not expecting any changes.  The only possibility is that Kaye played 60 minutes for Canada on Wednesday night, so he may not start.  We could see Max there instead.  I'm expecting Kaye to start and play into the early second half though.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Rubio and Barrios.  FSL is hurting and we should be able to take advantage as healthy as we are.  Rubio likes scoring against FSL so I think he gets on and Barrios gives us a cushion going back to Sandy in July.

Rapids Fail To Show In Utah...Again

Stop me if you've heard this before.  The Rapids go to Utah, come out flat, go down by at least a goal, stage a furious attempt at a comeback in the second half, it turns into an end-to-end game, and Colorado loses, probably by multiple goals.  Yep, almost every damn time we go to Sandy we choke and the did it again Saturday night.  A 3-1 loss meant the team left the Rocky Mountain Cup in Utah and also failed to clinch a playoff spot.  They'll need to bounce back quickly with the upcoming schedule.

Random Thoughts:

• I think Fraser is overthinking things at this point.  Leaving Acosta and Kaye out of the 18 and starting Barrios on the bench is a poor setup for a winnable game.  I recognize we have 5 games in 13 days and the Seattle game midweek could be huge, but its a lot less huge now that we lost in Sandy.  Sometimes you need to focus on winning the points in front of you and then worry about what's next, and that's before we get into the rivalry aspects of this match.
• Likewise his continued insistence on this 4-5-1 seems odd, considering we always play better once we switch back to a flat back 4.
• But that could be due to our slow starts.  Maybe its not the formation but just an inability to really show urgency until the second half.
• Regardless, this loss wasn't all on Fraser.  Abubakar and Trusty had horrendous nights in center defense.  On the first FSL goal Trusty badly whiffs on the ball letting it go through his legs and Abubakar had lost his man leading to the goal.  On the second Trusty has plenty of time to play a ball upfield but hits a lazy pass that's easily intercepted and it comes right back past him while Lalas loses his man again.  On the last, and t be fair the team was pushed up to try to get a tying goal, Lalas misjudges a ball and his man is off to the races.  Just horrible matches from both of them.
• Colorado essentially had no offense in the first half.  They were more dangerous in the second, getting one back and it felt like for a bit a second might come, but then FSL got its legs under them again and shut things down.
• Along those lines, Cole Bassett since mid-July, has had 2 assists, 1 PK goal, and one game with more than one shot on target in 11 starts and 4 sub appearances.  I know he's got a ton of skill, but he's just not starting material right now.
• Had Rubio scored he would have broken a 3-way tie with Casey and Cummings for the Rapids leading scorer in the Rocky Mountain Cup.  They all have 3 RMC goals.
• Meanwhile, sadly, Drew Moor has joined those two and Pablo on the list with 6 RMC losses in their career (Pablo also lost twice as Rapids coach).
• Colorado really dropped a chance to make up ground on the rest of the West this weekend.  Seattle, SKC, and Portland all lost as well so a win would have put Colorado 12 points ahead of 5th, 8 ahead of 4th, and 2 ahead of SKC in 3rd with a chance to tie Seattle with a win on Wednesday.
• The Rapids now go into a 3 game stretch where they play 3 of the top 5 teams (not counting themselves) in the league in a week.  Wednesday against Seattle, where anything but a win all but eliminates them from winning the West (with a loss/draw they would be 9/6 points back with 4 to play).  Then a huge 6 pointer against Portland on Saturday where a win could put them up more than the Timbers could make up in the last 3 game but a loss could have them slip to 4th,, depending on what happens Wednesday.  finally a trip across the country to New England who might be in position to win the Shield that night (if they haven't won it already by then).
• Even with the doom and gloom the Rapids will make the playoffs and almost certainly will host the first round game.  Right now they're still 2 points ahead of the pace FSL and the Galaxy are playing at in 5th place.

Man of the Match: Younes Namli.  Not much to choose from here so I went with the goal scorer.  With that goal the Rapids became the last team in MLS this season to get a goal or an assist from a DP.  Only took 29 games.

Time To Win A Cup

There should be no difficulty getting up for this one.  The Rocky Mountain Cup is on the line tomorrow night in Sandy.  Winner takes all, a draw means the Cup will not be coming back home with the team.  Since both sides have won a game but FSL won by multiple goals they win the total goals tiebreaker in the case of a 4-4 tie on points.  Also with a win tomorrow, or a lot of other combined results, the Rapids would clinch a playoff spot and be pretty certain they would host a playoff game.  Kickoff in Utah is at 7:30 and while the game is on Altitude it is also on KSL in Utah, which streams their feed online for feed and should be available in the Denver area.  Richard Fleming has announced he won't be available for this game or Wednesday night's home game so we'll see how Tyler Maun does paired with Balboa.

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED: D Danny Wilson (red card against Minnesota)

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, F Diego Rubio

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION:  D Auston Trusty, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan, M Collen Warner

Obviously Wilson being suspended isn't great but at least we have two solid center backs available.  Both Acosta and Kaye have returned from their international duties.  Acosta did not play on Wednesday night.  Sunday night in Panama he took a hit to the head that left it wrapped in bandages (no concussion issues have been reported) and on Wednesday night he still had a notable bandage on the point of contact.  Hopefully that doesn't limit him tomorrow.  Kaye played the last 30 minutes or so for Canada on Wednesday night.  I think he'll be available to start.

This is partially what I hope to see.  A return to the 4-3-3/4-5-1 that works better for us than the 5-4-1 we've been trying to use.  Pushing Rosenberry inside to put Galvan in front of him in place of another pure attacker isn't what we need.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Barrios.  FSL actually has a slightly better offense than we do, but a much worse defense.  (16 more goals given up than Colorado in 28 games).  I hate to predict a win against FSl, especially in Sandy, given all the ways we've been burned over the years.  This team however feels like one that will build on its success last week and the massive comeback to win the series in Sandy last year and come out with 3 points, a clinched playoff spot, and the Rocky Mountain Cup!

Same As It Ever Was

The Rapids, once again, played their worst game of the season in Sandy as the evil empire blew the doors off the burgundy boys en route to a 3-0 win.  Really the scoreline flatters FSL as the wounds were largely self-inflected, at least up to the point where it didn't matter.  That starts with one of the worst own goals in Rapids history as a simple pass from Abubakar back to Yarbrough was misplayed by the keeper and rolled into the goal.  Will just took his eyes off of it and let it get under his feet.  Inexcusable.  

That was followed by a not great turnover by Shinyashiki in the attacking third that turned into a fast break down the field for FSL.  Rosenberry, inexplicably, kept ceding ground to bobby Wood, from the mdifield strip to the midpoint of the box before he tried to make a play.  By that point Wood had created separation enough that Rosenberry couldn't block the shot.  Keegan did, correctly, push him to the outside but then Yarbrough committed another cardinal sin for a keeper and got beat near post.  As a keeper, especially with a defender pushing the attacker outside, you have to make the attacker beat you with the hard shot to the far post, not the easy one near post.

After half the Rapids tried to rally to get back into it, but after an initial burst in the first 15 minutes, capped off by a good clearance off the line of a Abubakar header by a FSL defender, but after that it was fairly clear how this game was going to end.  FSL get one more after Rubin found space between Abubakar and Trusty with neither closing him down, an easy pass put him in on goal and there was nothing Yarbrough could do.

This was a bad week for Colorado.  Coming into it 7 points was a reasonable goal and 9 points was not our of the question.  Instead we got 4 points and played maybe 15 minutes of good soccer in 270 minutes of game time (the 15 minutes after half in the Dallas game).  This stretch really shows how important Vines and particularly Acosta are to this team.  Without Kellyn dictating play in the middle there's nothing to stop teams from running right at our back line.  Bobby Wood's goal was the 3rd or 4th long run he took at the defense with the ball to get into a dangerous spot.  Acosta's played lights out for the Nats at the Gold Cup, which will probably get him the European deal he's been looking for.  We just have to hope that its this winter and not in August, because without him we're sunk for 2021.

Yarbrough had the worst performance by a Rapids keeper since probably the infamous Joe Nasco game.  In 16 minutes he essentially gave FSL a 2 goal lead.  This comes on the heels of a shaky effort against Dallas.  Its not time to make a change. but he's lost any "lead" he had over Irwin for the #1 spot.  Another bad game in the next few matches and it would be good to see what Irwin could do.

Yarbrough's own goal really shook this team, and they never got their heads back in the game.  This was something that was foreseen (by me, among others) in the preseason as a weakness in this squad.  So much youth is great but the lack of veteran leadership makes it hard to get out of a bad spiral when the team gets into one, especially when its one of the senior leaders that made the mistake.

All we can do now is put it behind us and move forward.  Its important that the team bounces back from the poor performance and heads down to Austin with something to prove.  This will be the last match without Acosta and Lewis, but I expect Vines' transfer to be announced as soon as the Gold Cup is over.  Luckily most of the teams around us in the standings also dropped points so the loss didn't hurt us too much, outside of the Rocky Mountain Cup.

Man of the Match: Ollie Larraz.  Given how poorly the team played, his 4 minutes (plus stoppage) of play showed at least a spark that the team was missing.

Rocky. Mountain. Cup.

No need to explain how important this one is.  Tomorrow, 8pm, Sandy, Utah.  The rightful Rocky Mountain Cup holders take on the pretenders from the west side of the Divide.  C38 has a contingent heading out on a bus in the morning.  KSL, Salt Lake's TV affiliate, streams the game online for free so even if you live in Denver and are blacked out by Altitude you should be able to watch it there (FSL announcers though).  to remind everyone, last year's decision to only count certain games towards the Cup was a exception due to COVID.  This year we're back to all 3 games counting towards the Cup.  Total points over the 3 games wins it.  If tied then its total goals.  If still tied the current (and rightful) holders would retain the Cup.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

International Callups:

USA: D Sam Vines, M Kellyn Acosta, M Jonathan Lewis

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Danny Wilson, M Jack Price

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: F Diego Rubio

Exactly the same player availability as Wednesday.  Really happy Price and Wilson were able to avoid yellows long enough to get to this game.

I think Fraser is going to ask some guys to dig deep and go for their second start in just over 72 hours, and for a lot of them their 3rd start in just over 7 days.  We get a week off after this and its a big match.  This is probably our best XI with the 4 guys that are missing and I think we'll see it start tomorrow night.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Galvan.  Both teams have equal offenses but the Rapids have a slightly better defense.  FSL is in a bit of a tailspin right now but I'm very hesitant to predict any kind of result in Sandy given our record there.  We are on a two game win streak with a win there over Vancouver earlier this season and the 5-0 beat down we put on FSL to win the Cup last season, but I think 3 games in a week is going to be asking a lot with our depth issues.  Getting out with a draw would be a solid, if maybe not hoped for, result.

And a reminder of what we're playing for:

Do You Believe In Miracles? Yes!

 

Yeah, I never saw that coming.  In one of the great Rapids regular season games of all-time the burgundy boys went into Sandy, Utah and ran the locals out of town.  Then they took our Cup back and came home.  Just a few of the historic stats from Saturday night:

• Biggest win in team history
• Sixth time the Rapids scored 5 goals in a match (plus the Montreal game last year where we scored 6)
• Second time the Rapids scored 5 goals on the road (5-4 win at RBNY in 2008)
• First time we ever led FSL by more than 2 at any point in a game
• First time we ever scored more than 3 against FSL
• First win at Rio Tinto Stadium
• First time two homegrown players scored in the same game (Vines and Bassett)

It was also FSL's worst home loss in its history.  Interestingly, both teams are now responsible for the other's worst home loss.  Along with the 3 points the 5 goals meant that the Rapids outscored FSL 6-4 over the two games and won the Rocky Mountain Cup.  Colorado also jumped up to a playoff spot on PPG.  I said that to maintain a playoff spot we needed 7 points out of the 6 Phase 1 games, and we currently have 6 with one game remaining.  So we're meeting the minimum expectation at this point and are now undefeated in the last 4 games.

Clearly with a win this big everyone did a great job so its hard to call out any one thing, but there are a few moments to highlight.  Sam Vines got his first career goal after Namli once again broke some ankles for his second assist of the night.  Jeremy Kelly slalomed through the FSL defense to set up Bassett's goal.  Braian Galvan had his first MLS goal and somehow didn't have a second, hitting the post from 5 feet when the goal was wide open.  Honestly when that happened I thought our RMC curse had gotten us again and we were going to give up a Cup winning goal in another heartbreaker instead of salting it away by going up an extra goal.  A really important note, the ages of the players that appeared on the scoresheet (goals or assists) were 19, 19, 21, 22, 26,  and 27.  Collen Warner's 13 minutes at age 32 was the only player over the age of 28 to see the field.  The kids are all right.

I wanted to give Lalas Abubakar a shout-out after being on him for some poor performances.  He was everywhere on defense on Saturday night, and more than once threw himself in front of shots to keep the shutout.  Because of his work, and the rest of the defense, Yarbrough only faced two shots on target, both easy saves.

Man of the Match:  Diego Rubio, obviously.  He became the first Rapid to score two goals in one game against FSL.  Doing it inside the first 10 minutes of the match was just the cherry on top.  But even after the second goal I don't think anyone really believed we were going to find the two more we needed to get the Cup, much less 3.