Rapids Lose RMC, Fraser Fired, Smith Throws Him Under The Bus

Ok, buckle in, there's a lot to cover and I have no idea how long this will end up being.  We're going to go in chronological order starting with Saturday's game and ending with Padraig Smith's letter to season ticket holders.

Not that there's much to talk about with Saturday's game.  A 2-0 loss that we were once again never really in.  With that result FSL wins the Rocky Mountain Cup again with a game to play.  That is now 1 win in our last 15 league games, 1 win in our last 18 games in all competitions, and we've been shutout in 9 of our last 10 league matches.  We've been shutout in 15 of our 26 league games this season.  At least Bassett apologized for the result.

Clearly something had to change, and as expected, the ax fell on Robin Fraser this morning.  He leaves the club 3rd in regular season games managed behind Mooch and Pablo and 3rd in pts/game for his Rapids career, behind Smith and Mooch.  It was actually just the last 3 losses that knocked him down from first to third in that stat, before the Leagues Cup break he was just barely ahead of Smith for the top spot still.

Assistant Coach Chris Little will manage the team as interim coach.  Reportedly the coaching search will start immediately, not wait for the offseason.  Still I think we can assume Little will get the last 8 games of the season.

Sadly Fraser had to go.  It was apparent watching the last three games that he had lost the locker room.  There was no drive or energy from this team, and it looked more like 11 individuals on the field than 1 team.  These are things that regardless of talent a coach should be able to implement, and we've seen Robin do this in the past.  Clearly something had soured and he wasn't going to be able to lead this team any longer.

That said, those are all symptoms of the bigger problem, the absolute trash fire that this organization has turned into.  We've covered off the field issues (stadium quality, communications, etc.) before so I'm not going to get into them tonight, but keep in mind everything I am going to talk about is in the context of the rest of the club being an absolute mess, with the only thing working being Rapids 2. There is no clearer example of this than the letter Club President Padraig Smith sent to season ticket holders today:

Excuse me?  This is throwing Fraser under the bus, running him over, stopping, and backing up over him again.  Its a ridiculous abdication of any sense of responsibility for Smith's part in this fiasco of a season and really causes me to lose a lot of respect for him.  Based on the reaction on social media, I'm hardly alone in this assessment.

Before we get into a detailed analysis of this letter I think its time I be open with anyone reading.  Over the last 4+ years going back to the 2019 preseason I've had multiple opportunities to sit down with Padraig Smith one on one and talk to him about the state of the team, his plans, and everything else.  I was always clear with him that I wasn't going to carry water for the FO, and he was always clear with me about what was on the record and what was off the record, and I've always respected that.  I will continue to respect that, as I gave my word.  The opinion I got of Padraig during those one on ones is not the same opinion I get of somebody who would write this letter.  It makes me think that he's a great talker, but doesn't back up his talk with actions.

Let's go through this.  First of all, the idea that "this isn't a decision we took lightly".  Isn't he the club President?  Doesn't the buck stop with him?  He's also the guy who hired Fraser and was operating as the GM until just a few months ago when the promotions happened.  I have a hard time believing that the final call was anyone's but Smith's, and he should step up and say he made the call.

The next paragraph is detailing the success Robin had, which amounts to the club record season in 2021 and one (1!) Rocky Mountain Cup.  Listen, as much work as I've put into the RMC I love to see it taken seriously, but a supporter-run rivalry trophy being the second best result in a coach's tenure is somewhat damming.  Its even more so when you realize that's the only RMC we've won since Padraig Smith and Wayne Brandt took over in 2017.   That 2021 season is also the only home playoff game we've had in that time period as well.  So its a bad look when you can only come up with two things to mention about a coach's tenure, but its a disastrous look when you realize that no other coach under the current leadership can claim even those minimal successes.

Smith then goes on to detail out the current situation and how poor it is, and why that led them to make the change.  Funny thing is, we just got done with a transfer window where it was clear we needed to make changes to avoid this situation, and the best that Smith and Fran Taylor could do is a solid left back and two loan-to-buy players, and they couldn't even get the latter two here in time to help in Leagues Cup.  This after an offseason window that netted us, if we're generous, one MLS quality starter in Maxso.  Gersbach was a waste of a signing, Ronan has potential but would be a backup anywhere else in the league, Cabral was a disaster move that will hurt us for years, and we wasted transfer fees and an international slot on a goalkeeper that can't parry a free kick to keep it out of our net against our rival.

Is any of that mentioned when detailing the current problems?  No, not a peep.  Instead Smith states that this team is capable of "much, much more" than they have shown so far.  Notably both this language and the language he used in that press availability a couple of weeks ago is identical to the language he used when he fired Hudson.  In that case he was proven correct as both Casey and then Fraser came in and took those players to much higher finishes than Hudson was able to.  But now he's suggesting that Fraser is incapable of doing that again?  Is it that Fraser changed, or is it that this group of players is not that group of players?

The next paragraph goes on to flog the success in 2021 again, talking about how they had a systemic approach to build on successes each year from 2018 through to 2021.  Given that Fraser wasn't even here until late 2019 there's some sell-promotion going on there.  The next line is actually admitting that they've deviated from that path since 2021, but then taking no responsibility for that, using a royal "we".  Smith talks about how we need to be a team that plays to its strengths.  I'm not sure this team has any strengths right now.  A team that emphasizes player development.  How many chances has Yapi had this year?  What happened to Toure?  How is Vallecilla's development going?  Where exactly is Abe Rodriguez and Adam Beaudry going to play now that you've signed Ilic?  The next one is a direct quite from the Rapids Way about approaching each game with urgency, boldness, etc. and a desire to win.  Well, I'm not seeing much f a desire to win out of the current players, so I don't know how a new coach is going to change that.

Smith's last line in this section is getting back to being a team that gets results and makes our supporters proud.  First of all, this team has never been a team that's gotten results in any sort of sustained way, and the one time we did, from 2019-2021, was under the coach that was just fired.  As far as being proud, well, its hard to be proud of an organization that won't take responsibility for their decisions, that runs a substandard game day operation, and who has to be reported to the players union for not keeping the facilities in a state that professional players feel comfortable using them.

The letter ends with typical meaningless niceties after that, but I think the point has been made.  As I said at the beginning it was time for Fraser to go, most of the supporters understood that even if we weren't happy about it.  But this letter was insulting in how it placed the blame on Robin, how it took no responsibility, and how it continues a pattern of this organization not understanding the fanbase.  Its more evidence that the Front Office lives in a bubble where they won't talk about bad things and they hope they can keep their heads down, celebrate the once-every-five-years successes, and keep drawing in the casual fan for their "fun night out" 2-3 times a season.  Until that attitude changes nothing else about this team will.

Rapids Extend Fraser Through 2025

Today the Rapids announced that head coach Robin Fraser has agreed to a contract extension that takes him through the 2025 season.  This is great news, and the biggest signing the team could make right now.  While we still need a DP, Fraser is worth more points than any single player signing could be.  He's taken this club from the bottom of the barrel with Anthony Hudson (not slighting Conor Casey's interim work her though) to the best PPG in the league (tied) since he took over the club.  Not only that, but he's done it in a way that is sustainable and repeatable.  That's something we've never had as Rapids fans before.

Assuming things don't go sideways (or he's not poached) and the MLS season stays at 34 games next season, Fraser will set the record for number of games* as head coach with the second game of the 2024 season.  He only needs 60 more points to set the record for most points by a head coach, which we should expect to hit sometime in the 2023 season.  Mooch Myernick is the current record holder in both categories.

I've also heard a rumor that a new contract for GM Padraig Smith may not be far behind...

Welcome Back Robin Fraser!

Well after yesterday's sad news, on to something better.  The news was announced on Sunday but yesterday the Rapids officially introduced Robin Fraser as the club's new manager.  Fraser joins the team immediately and will be in charge for the final seven matches of 2019.  Robin has many ties to Colorado, having played here first for the Foxes and then the Rapids.  His daughters still live here and he sounded very happy to be back in a place that holds so much importance to him.

I've long advocated for Fraser as the manager, going back to before Pablo was hired and again before Hudson was hired.  If we're budget-limited on the manager (and given our recent manager choices, it seems that we are) it's hard to do much better than him.  He's got a long history in MLS, he has experience with being the head coach with Chivas USA, and he was an assistant with successful squads in Toronto and with the New York Red Bulls.  That's a better resume IMO than a Josh Wolff or a Tab Ramos.  About the only other person who wasn't already a head coach that would compete with that was Wilmer Cabrera when he was unemployed for a week earlier this month after being fired by Houston, but Montreal jumped at the chance to hire him (and according to rumors we had already settled on Fraser by that point).

I hear a lot of fans talking about his lack of success at Chivas, which is fair, his record is not good.  That said, Chivas was a joke of an organization by the time he was in charge.  His leading scorer in his two years in charge was Juan Pablo Angel, with 19 goals.  His second leading scorer, with one goal less than Angel?  Nick LaBrocca.  Yes, that Nick LaBrocca.  There was little talent and little interest from the FO in changing that, unless in involved getting players from the parent Chivas playing time.  Combined with a FO in so much chaos it actually got into legal trouble over employment practices I'm not sure you can take much from his record.  The important thing is that he knows what it means to run a club day in and day out, which is something no Rapids manager could say when they came to Colorado since Fernando Clavijo.

Now don't get me wrong.  This is still a bit of a risk by the Rapids.  And by the Rapids I really mean KSE.  I think its obvious that KSE has handcuffed Padraig Smith with how much money he can spend on a manager.  Given that, I think Smith made a great choice, but I would have loved the budget to be expanded so Smith could have gone after a real top manager.  A great choice would have been former Rapids Aitor Karanka, who has been an assistant with Real Madrid and the Spanish National Team, and was the manager at Middlesbrough and Nottingham Forest.  But somebody with that resume is going to cost a lot more than Fraser costs and was probably not in our budget.

The one bit of sad news in all of this is that Rapids legend Conor Casey is leaving the organization.  He was offered the jobs of either lead assistant for Fraser or the manager job for the Switchbacks in the Springs and turned them both down.  I have to assume he thinks he can do better than a top MLS assistant/USL manager role, but I think that's optimistic.  Some fans (and maybe Casey himself) thing Conor should have gotten the full time job and the Rapids "screwed" him by not giving it to him, but the evidence doesn't back that up.

Casey has the team playing at 1.39 pts/game since he took over.  That's likely not good enough to make the playoffs had he had them at that rate for a full season and it would have only made the playoffs in 3 of the last 9 seasons (in most of the other 6 seasons it would have made the playoffs had there been 7 playoff teams from each conference like there will be this year).  He also had an embarrassing loss to the USL New Mexico United in the Open Cup.  He did that while having a fairly favorable schedule, with 10 of 18 games at home (plus the USOC game) and some weak teams in that time like Montreal, Columbus,  Cincinnati, and Vancouver.  With 4 of the remaining 7 on the road and 6 of the 7 against teams currently in a playoff spot the odds of him keeping up that borderline 1.39 playoff pace was unlikely.  Its hard to claim Casey made a strong play for the job given those results.

The rest of this year is a wash, especially after yet another debacle in Utah last weekend, so this will be a good time for Fraser to get a feel for what he has on the roster and what he'll be looking for in the offseason.  An offseason where only a third of the salary is on guaranteed contracts for 2020 and all the DP slots will be open, so there will be plenty of flexibility to build the roster as he sees fit.  I'm kind of excited to see what he does.

Robin Fraser Returning To Colorado?

Kristian Dyer of ESPN FC is reporting that former Rapids defender Robin Fraser is the lead candidate to be the next head coach, with Smith going in front of Stan later this week to get final sign off.  Fraser played for the Rapids from 2001-2003.  He also played for the Galaxy and the Crew.  After retiring as a player he was an assistant coach for the Red Bulls for four seasons before taking the head coaching job with Chivas USA.  In two seasons he was 15-21-32 (W-D-L) but you have to take into account that Chivas USA was a poorly run team,, even by Rapids standards.  Since then he went back to his assistant role with the Red Bulls before moving to Toronto FC as an assistant since 2015.

This hire would be a good move by the Rapids and one I suggested both post-Pareja and post-Pablo.  He has a ton of MLS experience, he's been a head coach before, and bonus, he's a former Rapid.  This isn't like our last four coaches who had no real club head coaching experience before and (outside of Pareja) had no real coaching experience of any type in MLS.  He'll come in knowing the league and the players and knowing what it means to be a head coach.  He's also going to be fairly cheap for a MLS coach so that fits the rumors of a limited budget.  Fraser has developed a reputation as a bit of a tactical whiz, which this team could use.  The real question left is how he'll handle the youth movement in Commerce City.

If things are as far along as the report suggests I can see Fraser being announced either late this week or early next week.  I expect that regardless of the time of the announcement Casey will lead the team through the two games remaining this week and maybe even the week after against Minnesota.  After that the Rapids have two weeks with only a USOC game due to the Gold Cup break which will be a great time for a new coach to step in.