On to 2026

Well, the season ended about how I predicted.  Dallas and FSL getting in, us missing out.  For a brief 2 minutes in the second half the Rapids were in a playoff spot, only to once again give out a late goal and only get 1 point.  Story of the season really.

Back on September 12th with 5 games left I pegged the target as 42 points.  Colorado reached 41 points and lost out on the tiebreaker (twice).  42 was the necessary total.  44 would have gotten us a home wild-card game.  For comparison the 9th placed team the last 6 years (ignoring the 2020 COVID mess) has gotten 42-47 points.  The last time the line was 41 was in 2018 when there were only 24 teams.  That means there were 102 less games played in the league, and 200-300 less points distributed.  Any team that failed to make the playoffs in the West this year stunk.

Looking at how Colorado failed to reach the promised land, take a look at this.  This is the point totals of the 4 teams in contention this week against the other 7 teams in the bottom half of the West.

• Dallas: 25
• FSL: 24
• San Jose: 21
• Colorado: 18

No coincidence that order is the order the four teams finished in.  Dropping points against Kansas City, the Galaxy, Dallas, and FSL, all in the last 7 games of the season, is what killed us.

The reality is though, whichever one of these four teams that would have gotten through tomorrow night's wild-card game is just a sacrifice to San Diego in the first round.  Really none of these teams deserved a playoff spot.

So, forward to 2026.  The biggest question looming over the team is will the mini-donuts be back again next season?  No, that's not it.  Its will Chris Armas be back.  For our purposes though, the question is, should Armas be back?

This is a tough call.  Armas clearly understands the importance of culture and even late into the second half on Saturday the players were playing hard and weren't giving up.  Those are points in his favor, as is the fact that he knows the reality of coaching in Colorado and what the challenge is, as well as a knowledge of the current roster.

Stacked against him are the results.  Armas was brought in after Fraser was fired.  Over the course of Robin's time here he averaged 1.4 PPG.  That was considered not good enough and we moved on (to be fair, it was clear Fraser had lost the locker room).  Armas, in his two seasons, has averaged 1.34 PPG.  Not an improvement over Fraser.  The difference is about 2 points a season, exactly what we missed the playoffs by.

There's also Armas' lineups and tactics.  His defensive strategies are awful.  Over the last two seasons the Rapids have given up 116 goals, despite having multiple TAM players on the back line.  The only other two years that we gave up that many goals were the two years that started with Anthony Hudson in charge.  Not somebody you want to be compared to.  There's also the problem of ending the season regularly playing Cole Bassett, arguably our best midfielder after Mihailovic left, out of position.  Cole is not a left winger, he's best as a 8.  Paxton Aaronson also talked after Saturday's game how he's more used to playing the 6/8 role, not the 10.  These are very questionable choices in must win games.

The final piece to this puzzle is Padraig Smith.  He's fired three coaches (Mastroeni, Hudson, Fraser) and hired their replacements, with a significant lack of success.  While he wouldn't have to fire Armas, since Chris is out of contract, does he deserve a chance to hire a fourth coach?  Its hard to say he does.  But is that a good reason to keep a coach that seems to be spinning his wheels a bit?

In the end I think I come down on the side of moving on from Armas.  While the intangibles he brings are important, what matters is results and he's just not getting them.  While I'm loathe at this point to have Smith take another run at a coach I don't see us succeeding next season with Armas in charge.  Since that's the only significant change we are likely able to make this offseason, we have to make it.  In reality though, until there are changes above the coach in the Front Office, namely getting a real, experienced, MLS GM in place, the decision on the coach is not likely to matter much.  Short of getting a Jim Curtain or the like Smith's failed roster building strategy will drive results more than any coaching decision.

I have some business travel coming up so I may be quiet for a bit but I will be back to talk about roster decisions and focuses for next season.  I'm going to try to get the roster decisions in this week before I leave but we'll see.  And I'll tale my lumps reviewing my predictions for 2025 next month once I'm home.

Time For Some Apologies

Rapids Doom Themselves, Hire Chris Armas

The Rapids have been immediately written in ink at the bottom of the standings for 2024, as nobody believes Armas is capable at coaching at this level

In what world does this look like a resume that will succeed at one of the least supported clubs in MLS?  The only thing he has going for him is that he's likely cheap and desperate.

The idea that Armas is a finalist for Colorado just reiterates that this organization is deeply unserious about being competitive.  The near universal response to this news across MLS social media tonight is sympathy for Rapids fans that might have to put up with their club hiring him.

...Armas would be very poor choices that would set this team back even further from the hole they're already in.  No other team would even consider them for the role

Pretty brutal huh?  That's not a roundup of what fans and columnists said about the Armas hire.  All of that is quoting posts I made about it.

Oops.

So yeah, I owe Chris, team President Padraig Smith, and Sporting Director Fran Taylor apologies.  I'm sorry, I blew it.  What Armas has done this year is nothing short of Coach of the Year worthy.  I didn't see this coming (in my defense, neither did anyone else).

Not only has Armas improved results on the field with the addition of some good players (Mihailovic, Steffen) he's also gotten better performances out of Rapids who were on the roster for the awful season in 2023.  Before his injury Kevin Cabral, who had 8 goals and 6 assists in 3 seasons, was already at 5G/4A and heating up.  There was an outside chance he would be a 4th double-digit scorer for the club this season.  Jonathan LEwis has tied his career high in assists despite only getting 3 league starts.  And Oli Larraz went from not having a contract to being an every game starter.

The Rapids are on pace to score 67 goals this season, which would smash the club record of 62 set in 1998.  That was back when there were 12 teams and the Shootout was still a thing.  Its already our third highest scoring season with 2019's 58 goals in 2nd.  We are on pace for a top 10 worst season defensively (oddly our worst defensive season was ALSO 1998) but right in line with the last couple of seasons which means Armas has greatly improved the offense without making the defense worse.

Most importantly though is the attitude of the locker room.  Last year the team's heads would get down as soon as they fell behind and you knew they weren't coming back.  In total in 2023 the Rapids earned 7 points from games where they trailed at any point.  In 2024, with 7 games still to play, they've earned 19 points.  And that doesn't count the Leagues Cup results.  I didn't hear no bell is an accurate description of the squad.  For whatever we seem to play even better off the back foot.  That mentality is directly from the coaches.

A Rocky Mountain Cup.  3rd place in the Leagues Cup and a CCC spot.  Almost certainly a playoff berth.  This is going to go down as a successful season (assuming we don't Coug It over the next few games and miss the playoffs) and that's largely due to what Chris Armas has done both individually with players and the team as a whole.  Well done coach and once again so coach, Smith, and Taylor, my apologies for being so wrong and blasting you on the hire.

Rapids Make Armas Signing Official

The Rapids made it official this morning, announcing Chris Armas as the 10th permanent head coach in team history.  A full press conference will be held in almost two weeks, on November 30th.  We've covered my opinion of the hire last night so I won't get into that but there are a couple of more details that came out today that I want to mention.

First the timing of all this is odd.  Announcing the biggest hire a team will make on a Friday, and one going into the very busy Thanksgiving week, is a good way to see the announcement lost in the typical weekend and holiday chaos.  That leads me to believe that either they weren't originally planning to announce the hire today and last night's leak forced their hand or they knew the reaction to this hire would be extremely negative and they want it to get lost in the holiday.  Or they just have a very strange media strategy.  None of those options fill me with a lot of confidence.

Secondly Burgundy Wave is reporting that it wasn't a final 4 but a final 5, but Wilshere still wasn't one of those 5.  I'm curious who the 5th name is but it sounds like it doesn't matter as BW is also saying that coming out of the final round interviews Armas was the top choice.  This isn't a case where they had one or multiple other candidates turn them down and they settled on Armas.  It's mind-boggling to me that somebody with Armas' track record could be the front-runner for a team in such desperate need of taking a public positive step.  Instead they stepped on a rake, again.

Maybe in the end Armas will prove us all wrong.  I truly hope he does.  But there is nothing in his history or in the recent actions of the Front Office and KSE that makes it seem like 2024 will be anything but a completely lost season.

On a semi-related note Jeremiah Oshan tweeted from Sounders practice today that Danny Leyva was there and training with the team.  If you remember we loaned him in from Seattle this season with no purchase option.  It always looked like he'd go back to the Sounders but this seems to make that official.  Based on his play here its no loss to Colorado, he wasn't very good.  Sounders fans have a much higher opinion of him though.  Note that because of the roster freeze he can't play for the Sounders in the postseason, but it makes sense that he continues to train with them now that the Rapids season is over.

Rapids Doom Themselves, Hire Chris Armas

Well, we should have seen this coming.  The Rapids Front Office, led (presumably) by President Padraig Smith and Sporting Director Fran Taylor* have hired Chris Armas as the 10th permanent head coach in team history, according to reports tonight from The Athletic, Denver Post, and Burgundy Wave (among others).  

* When you click on Taylor's bio from the staff page of the website (which lists him as Sporting Director) the bio page lists him as Assistant GM still.  Presumably the web team haven't gotten around to updating his bio after his recent promotion...seven months ago

The universal and immediate condemnation of this move from MLS fans across the league, seen in the last hour on Twitter/X, on the Athletic story reporting the news, and on BigSoccer should tell you what kind of hire this is.  The Rapids have been immediately written in ink at the bottom of the standings for 2024, as nobody believes Armas is capable at coaching at this level.  A recap of his head coaching career in MLS:

2018: Named head coach of RBNY in July 8th for the departing Jesse Marsch, he kept a Shield-leading team on top of the table in the second half of the season.  Beat the Crew 3-1 in the conference semis, but a tactical change in the first leg of the conference finals cost them a 3-0 loss and an eventual 3-1 series elimination

2019: Took RBNY to a 14-14-6 (W/L/T) season, 6th in the East and 12th overall (coming off a Shield winning season).  Lost to Philly 4-3 in the first round of the playoffs.  Lost to New England in their first USOC game.

2020: Took RBNY to a 9-9-5 record in the COVID-impacted season.  Went 1-2-0 in the MLs Is Back Tournament.  Finished 6th in the East again and 13th overall.  Was eliminated 3-2 in the first round of the playoffs by Columbus

EDIT: Arms was actually fired in September of 2020, going 3-3-2 in the 8 games he managed, including 1-2-0 in the MLS Is Back tournament.  He gets no blame for the playoff results.

2021: After being fired by RBNY he was hired by Toronto in the offseason.  Went 1-8-2 before being fired on the 4th of July.  Beat Leon in the CONCACAF Champions League before being eliminated by Cruz Azul.  Coached a total of 15 games.

So here's a guy who has failed at "big" spending clubs like RBNY and Toronto, and has shown a distressing lack of ability to win a knockout game (he won 2 of 6 knockout games/series in his career), something the Rapids already suffer from.  In what world does this look like a resume that will succeed at one of the least supported clubs in MLS?  The only thing he has going for him is that he's likely cheap and desperate.

With this, I'm done.  I'm not renewing my season tickets for the first time since I signed up for them the day Fernando Clavijo stepped down in 2008.15+ seasons and I'm out.  Maybe. maybe, if they have a miracle run of singings this offseason I'll come back but I find that almost impossible.

That's not to say I'll stop following the team.  I'll buy MLS Season Pass and watch them from home, and I'll probably buy a few tickets through C38, but they aren't getting $325 from me up front to watch the disaster the 2024 season is going to be.

Coaching Update and Roster Analysis

Its still all quiet on the Commerce City front when it comes to the coaching hire, and according to Burgundy Wave it may be a while.  Sounds like either their preferred candidate isn't happy with the offer or is trying to stretch the process out while they feel out other opportunities.  Either way its not a ringing endorsement of this organization.  If they don't announce tomorrow (and that sounds unlikely) they won't announce anything for a couple of weeks.  Making a major announcement like this during Thanksgiving week is just asking for it to get lost.  That also means the new coach will have no say on which current players we extend new offers to (those are due by Thanksgiving) or likely which options we pick up (those have to be decided by December 1st).

Burgundy Wave also reported that Jack Wilshere is no longer a candidate for the role and it sounds like he removed himself.  Its unclear if he just decided it wasn't a good match for him, or if he would still be interested but the compensation package wasn't enough to get him to make the move.  BW believes the unnamed 4th candidate is likely Efrain Juarez, to go along with Little, Armas, and Kah.

With the absence of coaching news lets get to my normal year-end roaster analysis.  Normally this is breaking the roster into core pieces, additional players worth keeping, and areas to upgrade.  That's really not the case this year.  This is a bad roster no matter how you look at it.  There's maybe a handful of players I would keep if I were building a MLS team from scratch, otherwise everyone is replaceable. (For this exercise I'm considering Price and Rubio as already gone, given their announcements)

Those players:

Cole Bassett - If this team has any heart, he's the center of it

Moise Bombito - Good young defender

Andrew Gutman - Experienced MLS defender in the prime of his career

Conor Ronan - What offense we have goes through him

Three others that might be worth keeping with a better team and organization around them:

Andres Maxsø - I think he's better than he showed this year, but not sure he's a DP

Keegan Rosenberry - He had some rough games this year, but he was playing with a questionable backline

William Yarbrough - He didn't need to go out like this, though I expect he will

Literally everyone else can go and be replaced by whomever we can find with little loss of quality.  A combination of being too expensive, ,taking an international spot, or just not being good enough means nobody else on the roster has earned their spot.  That might be a bit harsh on a couple of the homegrowns like Rodriguez and Larraz, but with so little playing time in a year where it couldn't hurt to have played them leads me to believe we shouldn't expect much in the near future.

So that's a maybe-MLS quality backline of Rosenberry-Bombito-Maxsø-Gutman, backed up by Yarbrough (or more likely Ilic) and a couple of number 8s in midfield, but nothing else to build from.  The new coach will have a lot of work to do when he gets here in order to make this a team that won't be embarrassed for a second-straight season.

Just for completion's sake, here are my thoughts on the rest of the roster:

Lalas Abubakar - A max salary player that's backup MLS defender quality

Max - We all know the issues there

Seb Anderson - He would have done it by now if he was going to be a MLS player

Steven Beitashour - Almost certainly retiring

Kevin Cabral - The biggest waste of $$$ and an international slot on the roster

Luis Diaz - Who?  $500K player that I barely remember at the end of the season

Michael Edwards - See Seb Anderson

Braian Galvan - Doesn't have the brain to go with his physical talent, too much of a hothead

Alex Gersbach - Thankful that Cabral is here to take the biggest waste of an international spot

Calvin Harris - Bench player that we spent $200K+ to acquire

Marko Ilic - Why pay a transfer fee and use an international slot on a keeper?

Aboubacar Keita - Never healthy

Jonathan Lewis - At some point you have to accept its not going to happen

Danny Leyva - Well, he's better than Priso?

Rafael Navarro - Didn't show anything to be worth a DP slot and a $5 million fee

Sam Nicholson - Love you Sam, but you look like a League One player in a Championship league

Ralph Priso - Simply not MLS quality

Sidnei Tavares - Depth at best, not worth $525K and an international slot

Gustavo Vallecilla - Maybe we'll get lucky and Columbus will keep him

Danny Wilson - His time is up, he just can't keep up at the MLS level anymore

Darren Yapi - He's got one more season to prove he can make an impact, maybe

One More Name To Add

Late last week one more name was added to the coaching list, Pa-Modou Kah.  Kah is former defender who is Gambian by birth but his family emigrated to Norway when he was 8 and he played for the Norwegian national team 10 times.  He played in Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia before he finished his 19-year career playing for Portland and Vancouver.  He immediately moved into coaching as an assistant with both Vancouver and Cincinnati before taking over Pacific FC in the Canadian Premier League, taking them to the title in his second season there.  He was then offered the job as the coach of North Texas (aka FC Dallas 2) which he took for one season before spending 2023 as an assistant in Charlotte.

So what we have is another manager with experience as a MLS assistant and a little head coaching experience (two seasons in Victoria BC with Pacific FC).  This matches up well with Chris Little and rumored name Efrain Juarez.  With Kah, Little, and Armas supposedly on the final 4 list that means either Juarez or Jack Wilshere is not a finalist (possibly both of them aren't).  If I had to guess its Wilshere that's no longer a finalist.  He's the only one of the 5 names that doesn't have any MLS experience, and he's also the one most likely to take his name out of consideration given his current situation and the possibility of getting an offer in the future.

With the names leaking late next week I'm expecting a decision shortly.  I would not be shocked if we hear at least an unconfirmed report if not an official announcement tomorrow, and I'll be very surprised if we don't get an announcement sometime this week.

Based on the names we know, I'd prefer Juarez, followed by Kah, with Wilshere an interesting wildcard.  If its Little or Armas its a very bad sign.

Rapids Reportedly Down To Final 4 Including...Chris Armas?!?!

After some time off I was planning to get into some post-season analysis tonight, but this afternoon there were reports that the Rapids are close to naming the new manager, with a final 4 that includes interim coach Chris Little and new name Chris Armas.  The only other two names seriously linked to the job have been Jack Wilshere and Efrain Juarez.  So a quick recap on the first three and then more on Armas at the end:

• Jack Wilshere

Current Arsenal U-18's coach, a position he took last summer (2022) after retiring from a 13 year playing career, primarily with Arsenal.  34 caps with England.  Took the U18s to the U18 FA Cup final last season.

• Efrain Juarez

Recently joined Club Brugge as an assistant after being at Standard Liege as an assistant last season, and NYCFC as an assistant the three years before that.  In all of those spots Ronny Deila was the manager while Juarez was his right hand man.  Before that a 13 year playing career in Mexico, Europe, and MLS and  almost 40 caps with Mexico.

• Chris Little

Obviously was the interim manager of the Rapids after Fraser was fired, leading the team to a 1 PPG average in his 8 games.  Has a 20+ year career of being an assistant in MLS and lower leagues, and a head coach of youth/reserve teams or college teams.  A very short playing career before he became a coach.

• Chris Armas

Armas is the new name here, but isn't a new name to American soccer fans.  Armas had a long MLS career with the Chicago Fire and the National Team.  He missed out on the 2002 World Cup after blowing out his knee in a match that spring, which opened the door for Pablo Mastroeni to take his place on that roster.  After retirement he was an assistant in Chicago and NY, with a stint as a college women's coach in-between.  In 2018 when Jesse Marsch left for Red Bull Salzburg Armas was promoted to head coach and led RBNY for 2.5 seasons before being fired near the end of 2020.  After that he was hired as Toronto's head coach that offseason, but was fired after 15 games.  Since then he's been an assistant at Manchester United and Leeds, again under Marsch, being promoted to co-interim manager when Marsch was let go.

Chris Armas is largely considered to have been one of the worst coaches in recent MLS history.  He took over a Supporters Shield leading RBNY side in 2018 and kept them in that position, but in their first playoff game that year immediately changed their tactics and lost 3-0 at home to Atlanta, leading to a 3-1 series loss in the first round.  Each year after that the team got worse, dropping to 6th (12th overall) in 2019 and 6th (13th overall) in the COVID-shortened 2020 season and crashing out of the MLS Is Back tournament in the group stage.

His time in Toronto was worse.  Hired in the 2020-21 offseason he won 1 of his first 11 league games (along with 2 draws) an was fired after a 7-1 loss to DC on July 4th.  That's a 0.45 PPG rate in Toronto. 

The idea that Armas is a finalist for Colorado just reiterates that this organization is deeply unserious about being competitive.  The near universal response to this news across MLS social media tonight is sympathy for Rapids fans that might have to put up with their club hiring him.  He has shown no ability to manage a team in any sort of successful way, his greatest success came when the team was set up for him with investment and coaching by Jesse Marsch and Red Bull, two things he won't have in Commerce City.  The only box he checks is that he's cheap and desperate to get another chance.

In these four candidates you have a youth coach, an assistant coach who's made a career for working for one manager, an internal hire that has no top-level management experience, and a retread who's been fired by two other MLS clubs (who in recent times have appeared to be almost as poorly run as the Rapids).  None of these guys are likely to come in and turn this organization around.  At least with Wilshere it would be an indicator of trying to do something different, and Juarez has some experience in Europe and maybe some connections in Mexico (and has been the right-hand man for a solid manager).  there's a possibility that they could be a surpising young manager.  Little or Armas would be very poor choices that would set this team back even further from the hole they're already in.  No other team would even consider them for the role (though I understand why you would leave the current interim who's under contract for next season in the running until the end).

Coaching Rumors. Injury News, Oh And We Have A Game

The Rapids play in Dallas tomorrow, the rescheduled game from last Wednesday's rainout.  There's nothing on the line so we're mainly going to focus on the news this week.  We'll get back to the game later.

The big news, well more like pretty much confirmed rumor, is that Jack Wilshere is on the Rapids list of coaches they are considering.  Wilshere is a former Arsenal and England midfielder who retired after the 2021-22 season (he played for Danish side AGF that season) and was immediately hired as Arsenal's U-18 coach.  Last season he took the U-18s to the FA Youth Cup final.

Obviously I think we would hope that we could sign a coach with extensive first-team experience, either in MLS or an equivalent or better league.  Before Fraser we had a long list of coaches getting their initial shot at managing first-team club football.  The reality of the situation though is that we've fired our last three coaches with multiple years left on their contracts and given KSE's lack of investment we have to assume that we don't have a big number to dangle in front of a name coach to want to come into that situation.  Given that I don't mind us looking a bit "outside the box".  I'm not sure Wilshere is the right match for us, but at the same time in this situation I doubt any name we hire is going to feel like the right match.  At the very least hiring Wilshere would at least get some eyeballs on the team.

In other news Colorado announced today that Sam Nicholson underwent surgery on his ankle to relieve an ongoing problem he's had for most of the season.  Recovery time is 12-16 weeks so he would be back around the start of the 2024 season, which he's under contract for (and the team has an option on him for 2025).  This is obviously a "season-ending injury", for the 2 games of this season that are left.

Back to tomorrow's game, kickoff is at 6:30pm.  Dallas is hanging on to the last playoff spot in the West but with this game in hand they can clinch their spot in the postseason and move up to a position where they would avoid the play-in game.  Meanwhile as I mentioned the Rapids are guaranteed to finish last in the West and next-to-last overall in the league, the only thing to play for is two wins in our final two games would avoid our worst season ever.

Availability Report:

OUT: GK William Yarbrough (surgery), D Moise Bombito (Team Canada), D Alex Gersbach (surgery), D Aboubacar Keita (lower body injury), M Danny Leyva (U.S. Pan-American Games Team), M Max (removed from team activities), M Sam Nicholson (surgery), F Diego Rubio (Team Chile)

Well, we got Tavares back at least.  I expect, given the wide swath of our team that's unavailable, he'll get some playing time.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  This was my prediction 10 days ago and the only thing that's happened is that we have even less players available.  I don't see any reason to change it.

Welcome Back Robin Fraser!

Well after yesterday's sad news, on to something better.  The news was announced on Sunday but yesterday the Rapids officially introduced Robin Fraser as the club's new manager.  Fraser joins the team immediately and will be in charge for the final seven matches of 2019.  Robin has many ties to Colorado, having played here first for the Foxes and then the Rapids.  His daughters still live here and he sounded very happy to be back in a place that holds so much importance to him.

I've long advocated for Fraser as the manager, going back to before Pablo was hired and again before Hudson was hired.  If we're budget-limited on the manager (and given our recent manager choices, it seems that we are) it's hard to do much better than him.  He's got a long history in MLS, he has experience with being the head coach with Chivas USA, and he was an assistant with successful squads in Toronto and with the New York Red Bulls.  That's a better resume IMO than a Josh Wolff or a Tab Ramos.  About the only other person who wasn't already a head coach that would compete with that was Wilmer Cabrera when he was unemployed for a week earlier this month after being fired by Houston, but Montreal jumped at the chance to hire him (and according to rumors we had already settled on Fraser by that point).

I hear a lot of fans talking about his lack of success at Chivas, which is fair, his record is not good.  That said, Chivas was a joke of an organization by the time he was in charge.  His leading scorer in his two years in charge was Juan Pablo Angel, with 19 goals.  His second leading scorer, with one goal less than Angel?  Nick LaBrocca.  Yes, that Nick LaBrocca.  There was little talent and little interest from the FO in changing that, unless in involved getting players from the parent Chivas playing time.  Combined with a FO in so much chaos it actually got into legal trouble over employment practices I'm not sure you can take much from his record.  The important thing is that he knows what it means to run a club day in and day out, which is something no Rapids manager could say when they came to Colorado since Fernando Clavijo.

Now don't get me wrong.  This is still a bit of a risk by the Rapids.  And by the Rapids I really mean KSE.  I think its obvious that KSE has handcuffed Padraig Smith with how much money he can spend on a manager.  Given that, I think Smith made a great choice, but I would have loved the budget to be expanded so Smith could have gone after a real top manager.  A great choice would have been former Rapids Aitor Karanka, who has been an assistant with Real Madrid and the Spanish National Team, and was the manager at Middlesbrough and Nottingham Forest.  But somebody with that resume is going to cost a lot more than Fraser costs and was probably not in our budget.

The one bit of sad news in all of this is that Rapids legend Conor Casey is leaving the organization.  He was offered the jobs of either lead assistant for Fraser or the manager job for the Switchbacks in the Springs and turned them both down.  I have to assume he thinks he can do better than a top MLS assistant/USL manager role, but I think that's optimistic.  Some fans (and maybe Casey himself) thing Conor should have gotten the full time job and the Rapids "screwed" him by not giving it to him, but the evidence doesn't back that up.

Casey has the team playing at 1.39 pts/game since he took over.  That's likely not good enough to make the playoffs had he had them at that rate for a full season and it would have only made the playoffs in 3 of the last 9 seasons (in most of the other 6 seasons it would have made the playoffs had there been 7 playoff teams from each conference like there will be this year).  He also had an embarrassing loss to the USL New Mexico United in the Open Cup.  He did that while having a fairly favorable schedule, with 10 of 18 games at home (plus the USOC game) and some weak teams in that time like Montreal, Columbus,  Cincinnati, and Vancouver.  With 4 of the remaining 7 on the road and 6 of the 7 against teams currently in a playoff spot the odds of him keeping up that borderline 1.39 playoff pace was unlikely.  Its hard to claim Casey made a strong play for the job given those results.

The rest of this year is a wash, especially after yet another debacle in Utah last weekend, so this will be a good time for Fraser to get a feel for what he has on the roster and what he'll be looking for in the offseason.  An offseason where only a third of the salary is on guaranteed contracts for 2020 and all the DP slots will be open, so there will be plenty of flexibility to build the roster as he sees fit.  I'm kind of excited to see what he does.

Silly Season Rumor Roundup

With transfer windows opening across the world over the next month or so, including in MLS, and managers being hired and fired we've got a whole swath of silly season rumors to dig through.  First though, the one bit of news.  Today the Rapids traded an international spot for the rest of the season to Montreal for $100K in GAM.  With Rwatubyaye on loan to the Springs we had an open slot and apparently no plans to use it, so why not get something for it?

After that, the rest of this is rumor and speculation.  We'll start with various manager rumors (one hilarious) and then move on to players.

• Aitor Karanka rules himself out of any MLS job.  He had been linked with the Cincinnati job and was my top pick for the Rapids job if we looked outside MLS/US Soccer.  It was always a long shot but I'm happy to know he's not going to be coaching against us.
• Anthony Hudson is linked with the open Newcastle manager position.  No, that's not a joke.  Reports are they're at least talking to him this week.  I can't imagine they're seriously considering him, maybe his father put in a word or something, but there's nothing in his track record that suggests he's worthy of a Championship position, much less an EPL one.  Newcastle is poorly run lately though, so I suppose its not out of the question, but if they hire him it will be the most ridiculous move since Venky's fired Big Sam.
• With no other rumors it still appears Fraser is the leading candidate to fill Hudson's old position running the Rapids.  The curious thing is why it hasn't been announced yet.  Either the negotiations are taking longer than expected or there's another name in play.  At this point I'm not sure if its not better to wait until the offseason, its unlikely Fraser is going anywhere until then.

On to the player rumors.  These are all rumors of players leaving from various sources, no credible rumors of players coming to the Rapids.

• Diego Rubio has been linked to Liga MX's Cruz Azul, by way of a Chilean TV station.  Diego's brother played for them many years ago and some discussion makes this sound more like a rumor leaked to appease fans than any serious interest, but it is out there.  If there's a decent offer for him the Rapids should take it.  Rubio has struggled to fit in a bit here and if we could quickly turn him around for a good transfer fee that would be a smart piece of work.
• There are many reports linking Danny Wilson to League One side Oxford United.  This sounds like almost a done deal and the Rapids would be smart to take it if it lets them off without any additional salary payout.  Its no secret Wilson was a big signing that hasn't paid off, and getting out from the remaining $750K on his contract through the end of 2020 would be a win for the team at this point.  It would also be good for Wilson as talk is his family is dealing with some issues that would be helped by being back on the other side of the pond.  This would be as close to a win=win for everyone as we can get.  Today's trade of an international slot might be an indication this is getting done, as his transfer out would give us a free slot again.
• Per Richard Fleming's commentary during the Vancouver game, there have been multiple inquiries again about Kellyn Acosta.  That's all the details we have so far, and this is a tricky situation.  Any sale through the end of next season gets split 50/50 with Dallas, so the number is going to have to be high enough that half of it is worth losing a young midfielder in the middle of the season, one that's currently on a long-term deal.  My guess is that we're talking somewhere in the $3-$4 million range (so the Rapids would get $1.5-$2 million).  I'd be surprised if anyone is offering that.  If they are, the offer merits serious consideration.

Like I said, the silly season.  If I had to make predictions I'd go with; Fraser becomes Rapids manager in the next month, Hudson is never mentioned again by Newcastle, no real offer for Rubio is ever made, Danny Wilson leaves in the next month, and Acosta hangs around at least until the offseason.

Robin Fraser Returning To Colorado?

Kristian Dyer of ESPN FC is reporting that former Rapids defender Robin Fraser is the lead candidate to be the next head coach, with Smith going in front of Stan later this week to get final sign off.  Fraser played for the Rapids from 2001-2003.  He also played for the Galaxy and the Crew.  After retiring as a player he was an assistant coach for the Red Bulls for four seasons before taking the head coaching job with Chivas USA.  In two seasons he was 15-21-32 (W-D-L) but you have to take into account that Chivas USA was a poorly run team,, even by Rapids standards.  Since then he went back to his assistant role with the Red Bulls before moving to Toronto FC as an assistant since 2015.

This hire would be a good move by the Rapids and one I suggested both post-Pareja and post-Pablo.  He has a ton of MLS experience, he's been a head coach before, and bonus, he's a former Rapid.  This isn't like our last four coaches who had no real club head coaching experience before and (outside of Pareja) had no real coaching experience of any type in MLS.  He'll come in knowing the league and the players and knowing what it means to be a head coach.  He's also going to be fairly cheap for a MLS coach so that fits the rumors of a limited budget.  Fraser has developed a reputation as a bit of a tactical whiz, which this team could use.  The real question left is how he'll handle the youth movement in Commerce City.

If things are as far along as the report suggests I can see Fraser being announced either late this week or early next week.  I expect that regardless of the time of the announcement Casey will lead the team through the two games remaining this week and maybe even the week after against Minnesota.  After that the Rapids have two weeks with only a USOC game due to the Gold Cup break which will be a great time for a new coach to step in.

Conor Casey Rapids #9 Is Back!

By now I'm sure you've all heard the news.  Anthony Hudson was dismissed as Colorado Rapids Head Coach today and Conor Casey has been given the interim title.  A much needed change for a club that's been at a historic awful start.  Hudson finishes with a league 0.77 pts/game average, worse in club history (not counting Wegerle's single game as player/manager at the end of the '96 season that he lost) and with only 8 wins in 46 competitive matches in charge of the club.  It was also the second shortest tenure for a non-interim coach, only Houghton's 31 games in 1996 was shorter.

So very much out with the bad and, hopefully, in with the good.  For now club legend Conor Casey has the reins and he was the logical choice.  Of all the assistants only two of them, Casey and GK coach Chris Sharpe, were not brought in by Hudson from his prior jobs and Sharpe splits time between the first team and working with the Academy keepers.  Combined with his top 3 all-time player standing (Pablo and Balboa being the other two) and for an interim role he's an easy choice.

Note, I said interim.  Let's talk about the full time role.  Padraig Smith has the biggest decision of his career ahead of him.  He has to get the right coach this time or this club is in deep trouble for a long, long time.  Smith has two options.  With many of the top leagues ending their seasons in the next couple of weeks Smith could already have targets lined up and be planning to hire somebody in the next few weeks.  The other option is to let Casey handle the rest of the 2019 season and hire the coach in the offseason.  Honestly I think this could go either way an neither option would shock me.  The only thing that would be surprising is hiring somebody before the end of the season but after, say, July 4th.  If I had to put my money on something I'd go with a quick hire.

So who should fill that role?  Not Conor Casey.  Well, with one exception.  If Casey has the club for the rest of the season and somehow makes a miracle run into the playoffs he can have the job.  Short of that however we should be looking for somebody for more experience.  After Hudson, Pablo, Pareja, and Smith, all having essentially no club head coaching experience we need to hire somebody who's run a club before, preferably successfully.  Despite what some people like to claim there's actually a number of selling points for the Rapids job.  One, there's nowhere to go but up.  Two, there is a lot of dead weight rolling of the roster at the end of the season allowing a chance to build the team the new coach wants.  Three, two big DP spots will be open going into 2020.  That's a great chance to shape the future of a club.  But it also shows the biggest risk to the club at this point.  A bad coaching hire and/or bad DP signings could block this club from moving forward for a long time.

A couple of names are already floating around out there.  The two most notable ones are Josh Wolff and Eric Wynalda.  I don't particularly like either pick.  Wolff might be a good coach but never having been a head coach before we don't really know.  Wynalda's actual results don't match his hype.  He's never spent more than one season with his team and his "big" successes were building a team specifically to make USOC runs, not play full league seasons.

I'm sure we'll hear more names as time goes on and we'll be talking about the most likely of them here.  For now though its a new start to 2019 for the Rapids, lets see if we can put a run together with this bounce.

Hudson Out, Casey In?

Multiple rumors have broken this morning that Hudson has been fired and Casey is now interim manager.  First long-time reporter Marco Cummings tweeted that the Rapids and Padraig Smith have scheduled a major announcement today.  Specifically Smith and the Rapids, not Hudson.  Cummings has since deleted that tweet.  Rapids Rabbi has just tweeted that sources are telling him Hudson has been fired and Casey is now in charge.  More on this tonight when, presumably, we'll have official news.

Rapids Finally Make Hudson Official

What we hope the rest of the league is thinking right now

Fair warning, you're going to have to get used to Bill Paxton from Aliens gifs for a while as there's enough quotable Hudson lines to keep me entertained for at least the offseason.  Today Colorado announced what we all knew was coming, Anthony Hudson is the new head coach.  We've talked plenty about his background in past posts so there's not much more to say about him.

My reaction is a bit of "eh, we'll see if this works".  He talks the talk and his players and other people associated with him all speak highly of him.  I like his reported attention to detail and willingness to accept some newer coaching methods and statistical analysis.  His lack of fully professional club coaching experience is still a big weakness though and I wasn't overly impressed with his coaching decisions in the recent Peru playoff series.  This isn't a horrible hire but its not one that's got me super excited for next season either.  Certainly he's a better hire at the time than Pablo was and arguably Smith.  Those two both came with more knowledge of the organization but significantly less experience.

There was news today as well on the CCL draw, a player rumor, and preseason plans.  I'll cover that in another update either tonight or tomorrow.

Roster Cut Day And Hudson "News"

Big day today as the Rapids announced their option pickups and roster cuts going into the offseason.  Lets break them down:

• Sam Hamilton's option picked up - Easy decision, first round draft pick, cheap, still has time to develop
• Eric Miller's option picked up - Meh.  He is versatile, being able to play anywhere on the back line, but he's not particularly good at any of those positions.  Hopefully this is due to interest in trading for him.
• Jared Watts option picked up - Watts is a sold MLS-quality backup CB.  If that's how we're going to use him, great.  He should not be in the running as a starting CB.
• John Berner's option declined - No surprise, he's clearly plateaued and we could draft somebody as good as him with a possible higher ceiling.
• Dennis Castillo's option declined - If he had a green card I think he'd still be on the roster, but international spots are too valuable.
• Josh Gatt's option declined - Too expensive for what he brought (which wasn't much).  That was fine last year when Minnesota reportedly ate most of his contract but not when we're eating it.
• Alan Gordon's option declined - We always knew that was likely a one year move.  We could bring him back at a lower number but I bet he holds off to hope for a contract from LAFC.
• Mohammed Saeid's option declined - This is the real surprise move to me.  I thought he had done enough ton  stay with the team.  I expect they're trying to offer him a contract at a lower number.
• Mekeil Williams option declined - Duh.
• Luis Gil option to buy declined - Also duh.
• Bobby Burling out of contract and released - At his age and injury history and with Ford coming on there was no real future for him there.

The rest of the roster is under contract for next year which includes, surprisingly, Mike da Fonte.  However there are already multiple reports that the plan for da Fonte is for him to play out the rest of his contract on loan in the USL.  Clearly its cheaper to do that then to eat his contract.  If they are able to send him on season-long loans with no recall option then he wouldn't take up a roster spot and as a young, low-paid player he's not on the senior roster and doesn't take up any cap room.  We'll call that being Ramirez'ed.

That leaves 18 players on the roster (including Blomberg) going into the offseason and up to 12 open slots.  Plenty of room for the new manager to work with.

And speaking of that new manager, we have all but official confirmation that its Hudson.  A report from this weekend said that he was en route to Colorado to sign a 3 year deal.  If accurate we should expect an announcement sometime this week,

There were some positive words about Hudson in an interview of Andrew Durante, who announced his retirement from the New Zealand National Team last week.

With a "wider range" of talented players coming through, Durante said he believed the future was bright for the All Whites and he urged New Zealand Football to find someone who could "equal the passion and drive" of outgoing coach Anthony Hudson.

"I can't speak for the general public but I know within the group he was an awesome coach and a really detailed coach. Every camp was very intense and very detailed and structured. You just knew going into every game that you would be prepared. You knew exactly what the other team's strengths and weaknesses were, the training sessions were always challenging and he always pushed us," he said.

"In terms of the playing group, I think he will be very fondly remembered."

Generally there's been a lot of talk about how he brought a level of professionalism and preparation to the NZ team that was very lacking prior to his arrival.  Those are positive attributes to bring to the Rapids.

Hudson Watch 2017 Part 2

The New Zealand Herald has had two articles in the last 3 days reporting that Hudson is on his way to Colorado.  The first says the deal is not yet complete but there's nothing that's going to prevent it.  The second says that Hudson's assistant and NZ U-20 coach Darren Bazeley is expected to join Hudson in Colorado as his assistant.  At this point it would be astonishing if anyone but Hudson was the coach next season.

I took a look at New Zealand's record in competitive matches over the last few managers to see if Hudon had a notable effect (W-D-L):

Hudson (2014-2017): 8-4-1 - 2.15 pts/game
Emblen (2005-2013): 16-9-6 - 1.84 pts/game
Herbert (2002-2004): 8-0-6 - 1.71 pts/game
Waitt (1998-2001): 11-0-6 - 1.94 pts/game

So a small sample size (Hudson had less competitive games than any manager since 1998) but he was obviously the best record in the last 20 years.  Of course Herbert did take the team to the World Cup and got 3 draws despite having the worst record, so its hard to say that Hudson was the best manager.

Hudson Watch 2017

The newest twist in the Hudson/Rapids saga hit tonight as Hudson officially stepped down as the New Zealand coach.  There's no news as to his next move but all signs continue to point to Colorado as his next stop.  I've also heard secondhand that the new manager, whomever he is, was involved in the decision to sign Blomberg.

Obviously with the holiday we won't hear anything official the rest of this week but I assume if it is Hudson that we'll start getting some leaks by early next week,

Clock's ticking

Barring a miracle in the next 25 minutes Peru is going to eliminate New Zealand and Anthony Hudson will be able to take the Rapids job.  Given that we've heard no other rumors for a couple of weeks all signs point to Hudson being the man.  Now the clock starts ticking,  The Rapids needs to get the deal done, announce him this week, have a press availability early next week, and have him get right into it as soon as the holiday is over.  Any delay at this point in announcing Hudson (or whomever) is inexcusable.

November 1st, No Manager Yet

For the last 6 weeks or so the Rapids have talked about their goal of having a manager in place by November 1st.  Well the 1st has come and gone and no manager and only one real rumor (we'll get to that in a moment).

Now I don't think missing this date is a big deal yet.  There's really not a ton a manager could do for the next couple of weeks.  Obviously every minute of time the manager can spend in the job is a good thing, but until after MLS Cup all the new guy can do is evaluate the current roster, tell Smith what type of players to look for, and generally put dominoes in place for when the season ends and moves can be made.    All of that is obviously important, if this new "Rapids Way" is as coordinated as Smith is portraying it he can do a lot of that initial work himself while he negotiates with the targeted candidate.

That only gets us so far though.  MLS Cup is scheduled for Dec. 9th.  With Thanksgiving week generally being useless for getting work done in any office anywhere (not just soccer) the new manager needs to be in place in the next two weeks, give or take.  Which brings us to the one solid rumor we've seen about the position, New Zealand Nats coach Anthony Hudson.  Coincidentally, the Peru-New Zealand playoff for the final World Cup spot is on November 11th (in NZ) and Nov 15th (in Peru).  Just about the time the Rapids really need to have a manager...

I've dug around a little bit looking at Anthony Hudson.  What I've found hasn't made me jump off a cliff, but I'm also not floored by him as a candidate either.  Hudson was born in Seattle (fellow Seattleite!) but grew up in England as he's the son of Chelsea great Alan Hudson.  He was in West Ham's youth system to start but after bouncing around England and the Netherlands for a couple of years he got his only senior appearances (all 10 of them) as a midfielder with the Wilmington Hammerheads between 2006 and 2008.  This is hardly a knock against him though as some of the best coaches (Wegner for example) had minimal playing careers.

What is a bit of a concerning knock is his coaching career.  After retiring as a player to go into coaching he immediately took over the PDL Real Maryland Monarchs for 3 seasons.  He then jumped over to England to be a coach for Tottenham's reserve team and then coached non-league side Newport County from April to September when he got bounced after getting one win in the first twelve games of the season.

It was at that point he was tapped to take over Bahrain's U23/Olympic team and then a year later the full national side.  During this year he spent time with Mourinho at Real Madrid and Bielsa at Bilbao.  He coached the U23's to the win at the 2013 U23 Gulf of Nations tournament, the first tournament win in Bahrain's U23's history.  He was rumored to take over Denmark in October of 2013 but eventually took over as New Zealand manager in 2014.  While manager of the All Whites he reportedly turned down the MK Dons job in England and was linked with jobs at Norwich City and Derby County (he denied ever being approached by Derby).

When you add all that up you would see a significant hole in his resume.  For all his experience he's never managed a full professional club side.  The Monarchs were an amateur side, Newport was a semi-pro side and National sides are very different entities than club teams.  One thing I said going into this search was that I didn't want a 4th straight coach learning how to do the job.  This would be a bit different than Pablo/Pareja/Smith in that he has been the "top man" at a number of places dealing with professional players but its still not the same as running a pro club day in and day out for a 34 game season.

The good news is that his players for New Zealand praise him for bringing a new level of professionalism and advances to the team.  He also holds a UEFA Pro coaching license which is no easy thing to get.  He seems passionate and dedicated not only to his teams but also to improving himself in whatever way possible.  I think if he really is the leading candidate, as I'm hearing from secondary sources, its his focus on the system and process that won over Smith and co. even if his experience doesn't quite map to the hope the fans had.

Rumor Roundup

A bit of news and rumor from the first week of the offseason.  The primary source is from Padraig Smith's interview on the Vic Lombardi radio show on Wednesday morning.

Most notable, to me, was Smith's talk about how Gashi's play was disappointing this year and how it stemmed from him not following the offseason plan laid out for him after the 2016 season.  He also said they had had conversations with Gashi about it and he has accepted responsibility and pledged to do better this offseason.  So it sounds like Gashi is in the plans for next season and we should see a better Gashi than we dd this year.

He also said he had a talk with Howard after the game on Sunday and Tim is already ready to get back at it.  There was concern that after the World Cup Qualification failure Howard would decide to retire (or maybe want to end up at LAFC) but Smith made it clear that Tim was excited to lead the team in 2018.

Finally there was a good deal of talk about the new coach, what they're looking for, etc.  Smith said they're in final talks now and expect to have an announcement in the next couple of weeks.  He wouldn't name names (obviously) but talked about looking in the U.S. Europe, Oceania, and other locations.

Oceania stands out because of the rumor reported by Steven Goff yesterday:

Getting word @ColoradoRapids took interest in @NZ_Football manager Anthony Hudson, who's preparing for World Cup playoff vs Peru next month

— Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider) October 26, 2017

Today Ives is "reporting" that Hudson is the lead candidate but given his article just cites unnamed sources and otherwise just repeats what we've already seen from Goff and the Denver Post about the Rapids coaching search I'm taking that with a large grain of salt.

New Zealand is currently preparing for a playoff with Peru for a World Cup spot next month.  I can't image Hudson leaving New Zealand if somehow they upset Peru so I can't see how this is Plan A for the Rapids.  Add to that that Hudson's coaching career isn't all that impressive.  3 years with a PDL team in Maryland, 1 year in non-league football in England, and 7 years coaching for the Bahrain U23s and then the full Bahrain national team before making the same jump from U23s to full team with New Zealand.  I would hope our sights are bit higher, even though I appreciate the Rapids going outside the box to look a a candidate like this.

So the tl;dr version of this week:; Gashi and Howard back in 2018, coach announced in the next couple of weeks, New Zealand coach Anthony Hudson was discussed for the role at some point.