Where Do We Go From Here?

Its been a few weeks since our disappointing season ended, so its time to take stock and move forward.  By the end of next week the Rapids will have made their season-ending roster moves and will be preparing for the numerous offseason MLS roster machinations (trades, expansion draft, re-entry draft) that will occur between MLS Cup and Thanksgiving,  Then things go a bit quiet until right before Christmas when the Superdraft is on Dec. 21st  We'll cover each of those events in detail closer to them, but for now I want to look at the current options on the roster.

With some help from Joseph Samelson on the contract status I'm going to separate the players into groups of "out of contract/loan", "team held options", and "under contract" and go through what I think the Rapids should do.

Out of Contract/Loan:

Gyasi Zardes - Even if you could negotiated him down to half his $1.5M contract, there's still the reported ~$750K of GAM we would ow to Columbus if we re-sign him as part of the trade.  Zardes just isn't worth that.  There are better ways to use that money.  I think the Rapids need to let him walk.

Clint Irwin - I think Clint's second stint in Colorado has come to an end.  Its time to let Abe Rodriguez claim the backup spot and sign another young keeper to give him competition.  Hard to justify $200K a year for a to-be-34-year-old backup who seems to be falling off.

Collen Warner - We're pretty sure Warner is out of contract though the union doesn't list him as a free agent (which he would be).  Assuming he is a free agent the Rapids should consider bringing him back in a limited role.  We should be able to do better than relying on him to start any games but as a senior leader coming off the bench to close out games we could do worse.  Consider it the Drew Moor role.  Warner was on $84K last season, and presumably wouldn't be looking for/expecting a big salary bump at this point in his career.

Felipe Gutierrez - Gutierrez's loan was just until the end of the season.  To retain him we'd have to buy him in a transfer or convince Universidad Catolica to loan him to us again.  He's 32 years old and was making $700K last year.  I don't think that's where we should be investing our money.  If a loan is a possibility it might be worth keeping that in our back pocket for a "in case of emergency break glass" option this offseason, but it kind of feels like that's why we got him on loan this summer when nothing else happened in the window.

Lucas Esteves - His loan from Palmeiras is up and I don't think we should look to renew it or buy him.  Rumors are that Palmeiras wants $1M for 50% of his rights.  So essentially they place the same value on him as we did on Sam Vines, and Esteves is no Sam Vines.

Team Held Options:

Drew Moor - Retired, obviously.  But if he wanted to come back we should have brought him back.

Diego Rubio - Yes you pick the option up.  There are hints that Colo Colo might be interested in a transfer but that rumor has been out there for 2-3 years at this point.  There's some question to if Colo Colo could come up with any kind of transfer fee with their current financial difficulties.  It would have to be at least close to Sam Vines money to consider selling him I think.

Michael Barrios - He's going to be 32 years old, is making $680K, and didn't break 2000 minutes this season.  I don't see how you can justify picking up the option at that number.  We're better off to release him and try to re-negotiate a contract at a lower number.

Steven Beitashour - The 35 year old played a surprising amount of games this year (and played well), and with Drew Moor retiring there's a need for veteran leadership on the bench.  Assuming he wants to come back the Rapids should pick up his option.

Aboubacar Keita - You have to bring him back off injury to see what you have.  He should be a good addition but you never know after an ACL tear.

Anthony Markanich - On a rookie contract, doesn't hurt to pick it up

Ollie Larraz - Had some good flashes in 2021, as a homegrown you bring him back and hope the injury didn't set him back too much

Under contract:

As far as we can tell everyone else is under contract for 2023.  I'm going to go through some players I think the Rapids should look to move if an opportunity comes up, but I'm not going to go through everyone on the roster.  The rest are either obviously core players like Price and Yarbrough, are unlikely to have an option to move like Max, or are young kids who we just don't know enough about like Seb Anderson and Michael Edwards.

Jonathan Lewis - For whatever reason Lewis just can't put it together as a 90 minute player.  He's a good to sometimes great super sub but if he hasn't locked down a starting spot by now I don't think he will.  If a good offer comes our way we should absolutely take it.

Lalas Abubakar/Danny Wilson - I put these two together because I think they're both in the same position.  One of them can start but not both of them.  If we get an offer for one of them we should take it.  Ideally I'd like to move Wilson and keep Lalas, because I think Lalas is the better player.  Wilson can start but probably shouldn't unless its in a 5 man backline.

Sam Nicholson - I'm sorry, but whatever he had in his first tenure wit the team he no longer has.  The fact that he's on a multi-year deal at $300K is going to hurt us for a while.  If we get an out, take it.

Bryan Acosta - He's a MLS replacement level midfielder.  Which means we can probably find somebody to contribute what he contributes at a lower number but he's not hurting us being out there.

Gustavo Vallecilla - Right now this looks like the worst move we've made in a few years.  A huge price tag for a guy that doesn't look close to MLS ready.  I doubt we'll ever get back what we invested in him, now we just need to minimize the damage as much as possible.

So, the tl;dr version:

Allow to leave: Zardes, Irwin, Gutierrez, Esteves

Pass on options: Barrios

Move if there's an offer: Lewis, Nicholson, Acosta, Vallecilla, Abubakar OR Wilson

Time To Face The Music

End of the season means looking back to what we thought was going to happen.  Specifically going back through my preseason predictions.  I have a feeling I had a bad year:

• The Rapids make the playoffs without too much sweat, but in 5th place so they don't host a playoff game 

• Because of that they're one and done again

Um, no.  Very, very no.  10th place finish, 4 points out of a playoff spot.  Zero and done.

• Colorado beats Comunicaciones in the first round of the CCL, marking the first time they've ever advanced in that competition, but then gets knocked out by NYCFC in the next round

Again, no.  Crashed and burned in the first round losing a PK shootout at home.

• Because they get a bye to the 4th round of USOC play, to allow for CCL play, they end up facing off against another MLS team and do not advance from their first game

Nailed this one, not that it was that hard.  1 point.

• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup, somehow

*sigh*

• We will not make a significant signing before the season starts in 12 days

 Well, that was correct.  1 point.

• This summer we sign what is a notable #9 for the Rapids, but he does not have a significant impact on the 2022 season (but looks like a good signing for the future)

I going to give myself a half-point for this one because we did get Zardes and he didn't have a significant impact on the season, but it wasn't in summer and its not a good signing for the future.

• Barrios wins the Golden Boot again

Nope

• Rubio does not finish the season in Colorado

Nope, Rubio stayed and won the Golden Boot

• Max shows us what the Rapids saw in him, but it takes a bit before we see it

If I wanted to stretch for a half-point I could here, since he did start showing something in the last few games, but not enough to legitimately make that claim.

• Bassett has a quiet end of the 2021-22 season for Feyenoord, but comes out on fire in the fall

Half a point.  He did have a quiet end to the season, but at the moment he looks more likely to be playing in Colorado after the winter window than the Netherlands.

• Trusty leaving hurts the team in the last third of the season as Keita won't really be starter ready until after he takes his lumps this year.

Trusty staying hurt the team as much as him going, but it wasn't good either way.  1 point.

• Trusty becomes a late scratch from the WC roster.  Kellyn Acosta goes to Qatar (yes, we qualify) as does Sam Vines

Unknown at this time but still possible, if unlikely.

 

Well out of a possible 12 points with 1 outstanding I got 4 and that a being a bit generous.  Compared to 5.5 of 11 last year and 8 of 11 in 2020 I'm going the wrong way.  Much like the Rapids.

Your 2022 Rapids MVP Is...

 ...Diego Rubio.  I mean, obviously, right?

This wasn't even close.  Rubio set a new team record for goals + assists in a season (23), tied the team's single-season goal scoring record (16), and set a new record for career game-winning goals (13).  And he did it in a year where the Rapids struggled to win a third of their games.  Diego was involved in 50% of the goals Colorado scored this season, and when you look at other stats you see he has the most shots on the team, by over 60% (Rubio had 93, Lewis had 57).  Rubio also had the most shots on target, and almost double the fouls suffered than anyone else on the team.

Essentially whatever offense we had in 2022 largely went through Diego Rubio.  His 16 goals and 7 assists were career highs for him as well.  At 29 (30 in May) you would think he's probably got another couple of good years in him, which is good since we have him under contact with an option for next year, an option I expect the team to pick up.  In a year where a lot of things went wrong, his play gives us something to build around in 2023.

That's A Wrap!

The Rapids pulled off a smash and grab in Austin, bringing a point home with them to end the season.  While Colorado got some (very?) favorable officiating, the over-reaction from the Austin faithful to the result in what was, in the end, a meaningless game was the most entertaining part of it.  While the two waved off offside goals, one clear and one more questionable, are things we see go either way in games the foul that wasn't called on Abubakar late in the game was a huge miss that immediately came back to bite the ref as Lalas had the assist on the tying goal.  That said though, the 1-1 draw vs. a 1-0 win for Austin changed nothing in the league, so the Austin FC announcers going off as the game ended about how the official should never ref again went from professional to homer fan commentary in about 5 seconds.

The most interesting thing from the Rapids POV in this match was that tying goal, by none other than Diego Rubio.  With it he tied Conor Casey's single season record of 16 goals.  Combined with setting a new team record of 23 goals + assists, Rubio had arguably the best offensive season in team history.  He was directly involved in 50% of the goals the team scored (which isn't a team record, Spencer was involved in 58% in 2001, which I'm guessing is the record).  We'll get to the official View From the Couch MVP award in the next week or two, but it will be no surprise who gets it.

With that, this season is over.  Colorado had its 3rd worst year-over-regression, dropping back over 0.5 PPG from their 2021 pace.  Some of that was likely inevitable, given the record setting year we had, but this was a much bigger step back than anyone expected.  We'll get into that, roster analysis, and the rest over the next couple of weeks while MLS works through the playoffs.  Remember that we have an expansion draft for St. Louis coming up after MLS Cup.  Oh, and of course the World Cup.

One Last Game

Well we've made it.  To the end of the season and to the end of the Altitude blackout.  After Sunday both will be over, thankfully.  Before that we have an almost meaningless game in Austin.  Almost meaningless because with 1 point Austin can clinch the third best record in the league, which is slightly meaningful for Leagues Cup seeding and they would qualify for the CCL if LAFC/, Philly, or Orlando win MLS Cup (since they've already qualified in other ways the extra slot would go to the best unqualified team).  Even if they lose though NYCFC would have to win and make up 6 goal differential, so odds are they'll get it regardless.  The only thing the Rapids are playing for is where they'll pick in the draft.  Individually Rubio is looking for a goal to tie Casey's season goal-scoring record and a brace to break it.

Other than that, there's not much to get excited about this week.  Really just playing out the string and getting to the offseason.  The ending of the Altitude blackout comes with one negative, this will be Richard Fleming's and Marcelo Balboa's last time in the booth, barring an unexpected offer from MLS/Apple to join their commentary teams next season.  And if you watch through ESPN+ they usually go with the home announcers, so you won't be able to hear them that way.  Hopefully somebody will post a decent link to a stream for this one.  Kickoff for this final game is at 3pm on Sunday and for one last time, TV is still blacked out.

2023 Leagues Cup Format Revealed

Today MLS and Liga MX announced what the 2023 Leagues Cup will look like.  As a reminder, the Leagues Cup is going through a major revamp next season.  Instead f being roughly equivalent to the Europa League, the Leagues Cup will now be a full-month tournament between MLS and Liga MX.

MLS will stop league games from July 21st and Liga MX will delay the start of its season until after Aug 19th.  In that month all 47 MLS and Liga MX teams will compete in a World Cup style competition.  The format:

The 2022 MLS Cup winner and the better of the Liga MX's 2022 Clasura and Apertura will receive a by to the knockout rounds.

The other 45 teams will be split into 15 groups of 3 teams.  Top 2 teams in each group advance to the knockout rounds.

The groups will be seeded with the top 15 MLS teams in 2022 (so the 14 playoff teams and the best team to miss the playoffs) being placed into a group and the top 15 Liga MX teams being placed into the groups in reverse order.  So LAFC, as Shield winners (assuming they don't get the bye as MLS Cup winners), will get the 1st pot, and they'll be seeded with the 15th best Liga MX team.  Philly, as 2nd overall in the Shield race, will get the 14th best Liga MX team, etc.  The remaining 13 MLS teams and 2 Liga MX teams will then be drawn randomly into the groups.  There is some talk about the groups being regionalized but its unclear if that's accurate or not.  The Rapids can do no better than 16th, so this is where they'll be.

Once the groups are decided the group matches will be (home team listed first):

Seeded MLS team - Seeded Liga MX team

Seeded MLS team - Unseeded MLS/Liga MX team

Unseeded MLS/Liga MX team - Seeded Liga MX team

Yes, this year at least all games will be played in the U.S..  The seeded MLS team will host both their matches, the unseeded MLS team will host their Liga MX match and go to the seeded MLS team.  In the two groups that have one MLS team and two Liga MX teams the MLS team will host both Liga MX teams and the head-to-head matchup between the Liga MX teams will be played at a predetermined site in the U.S.  (I'm guessing places like Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, etc.).

The other twist is that there will be no draws.  Games that are tied after 90 minutes will go to Kicks From the Mark, with the winner getting 2 points and the loser 1.

After the group stage the tournament becomes a standard 32-team knockout competition with the higher finishing MLS team hosting, and intra-Liga MX matches being hosted at predetermined sites.  The final and third placed games will both be on Aug 19th at the home of the highest remaining MLS team (again, with a predetermined location if no MLS team makes the final 4).

The top 3 teams get spots in the 2024 CONCACAF Champions League, and there's a substantial prize fund being put together too.

So now that you have the facts, here's the analysis.  This is stupid.  15 teams are going to play 2 games and be done, and odds are those are going to be largely MLS teams.  So midway through the season we're going to stop for a month and have a bunch of teams sit around for 2-3 weeks not playing games.  Bad enough that we (correctly) do that during major international tournaments like the Gold Cup and World Cup, but this is self-inflicted.  If the MLS Cup winner or Liga MX top team fall on their face in the Round of 32 they'll play 1 game that month.  And its not like you know ahead of time who's going to be knocked out so you could set up friendlies.  Its going to be a bunch of scrimmages against USL teams to keep the rust off, which is just a season momentum killer.

Maybe once team 30 joins MLS and there are 48 teams, so you can do 12 groups of 4 and then have the group winners and top 4 second place teams go to a round of 16 knockout field.  That way everyone is guaranteed 3 games and there are only 4 rounds of games after teams get knocked out instead of 5.  Until then though, some teams (like, odds are, the Rapids) are going to play one home game against a Liga MX side, go to a MLS team, and then sit around for 3 weeks.  Which, yay?

Best case scenario for the Rapids next year will be to end up in a group with a team like LAFC or Austin, two teams we've beaten recently on the road, and thus with one of the weaker Liga MX teams.  Worst case would be something like Minnesota, which seems to have our number at their place, which would also include a top Liga MX team like Santos.  That's a recipe for a quick exit.

Colorado Finishes Home Season On High Note

The Rapids didn't end on a whimper, taking 3 points out of a (likely) top 3 team in the West with a 1-0 win over Dallas on Saturday to close out DSG Park for 2022.  Diego Rubio became only the second Rapid all-time to score 15 goals in a season with the loan tally of the game and not even a ridiculous red card could spoil the result.  Colorado will finish out the season with a game in Austin next Sunday.

With the goal Diego Rubio set anew team records for goals + assists in a season (22) and career game winning goals (13).  He needs 1 goal against Austin to tie Conor Casey for the team season goal scoring record at 16 (Casey did it in 2009).  He was also named C38's Player of the Year.

We also got the expected final home appearance by Drew Moor, who came in after Vallecilla committed an obvious and wildly unnecessary red card, taking out a Dallas attacker almost  off the field.  This  necessitated a formation change, pulling Zardes off and putting Moor on to fill the gap, and he immediately made a pair of clearances en route to clearing 4 balls in the last 10+ minutes to snuff out any hope Dallas had.

With the win Colorado ends the season with a 10-5-2 home record, for 35 points.  Last season, when the team won the West and set a new team record for points, they gathered 34 points at home.  Clearly our issues this year were anytime we got on an airplane we forgot how to play soccer.  7 road points (with one to play) does not bode well to finishing the season with a win.