Punchless

Another game, another two shots on goal total (and one of them was an Aaronson free kick that almost certainly would have been off the bar if it wasn't parried), another loss.  And this against a team that was giving up close to two goals a game coming in and scoring less that one.  Its becoming clear that the league has figured out how to shut down Wells' system and he has yet to adjust.

The other talking point in this one was the Holding red card.  It was a weak call at best and completely bogus in reality.  Never should have been a red.  That said the Rapids were adrift even before the card so I don't think it changed the outcome.

With the 1-0 loss the Rapids drop to 12th in the west on PPG, tied with San Diego, and 23rd in the league over all.  They are 6 points back of the non-wild card playoff spots and their three remaining pre-World Cup break league matches are against 5th, 6th, and 7th in the West.

Random Thoughts:

• The Rapids now have 12 shots on goal in the last 5 league games, while giving up 8 goals.  FotMob is showing 9 big chances in those 5 games.  We're out possessing the other team.  Generating corner kicks, keeping the ball around the box, and yet can't turn that into quality chances and goals.
• The one St. Louis goal was a combination of some well placed bounces and some inexperienced play.  Holding got beat to a header, the ball bounced past Herrington, and Lucas learned that his speed won't always save him.  With a little more experience he's a step or two further back and shuts down the breakaway before it starts.  Then Hansen came out and got nothing but air, not even making it difficult for the attacker to go around him.  Again, a lesson learned.
• I'm not sure how Durkin's red card was a second yellow and not a straight red.  The ref had a bad night.
• FotMob also had Aaronson with the best rating on the night, which is damning with faint praise given that nobody rated 7 or better.  Its just not enough out of him though, he had two good passes in the 72nd minute that set up shots and the free kick that wasn't going to be scored and that was it.
• If Minoumgou doesn't miss the header at the end of the game we're probably having a very different discussion but he put it way off target.  For all his good ball work he needs it to turn into something more.
• Ojediran picked up a yellow so he'll be suspended on Wednesday along with Holding being suspended for his red card.
• The focus in this one should really be on Wells.  5 games into this winless streak and we've scored 3 goals in the 5 games and are on a 237' scoreless streak.  Its time to admit that his plan isn't working and change something.
• We now he to Minnesota and Sandy.  Two tough games before what is likely to be our biggest game of the first half of the year, the Open Cup quarterfinal.  At this point I'm fine if we bag the league for these next two weeks and focus on not getting blown out in Sandy (to keep the Rocky Mountain Cup alive) and beating San Jose next Wednesday.  If that means we lose in Minnesota and to Dallas at home, so be it.  Pick up the pieces after the World Cup break with hopefully a winnable semifinal at home in September.

Man of the Match: Miguel Navarro.  Nobody showed out particularly well but the other Navarro had a solid game at a position where we've been struggling.

Time To Turn Things Around

 

This is the first time back at the Dick since we lost Ryan Sabin from a medical incident at the Open Cup match.  As you can see above Centennial 38 will be remembering him in a number of ways tomorrow. Please join us.

The Rapids finally got a full week off to rest and get healthy, only to turn around and start another 5 games in the next two weeks leading into the World Cup break.  We're home against St. Louis tomorrow, on the road in Minnesota on Wednesday, we have the Rocky Mountain Cup first leg in the dark place next weekend, then back at the Dick for the USOC Quarterfinal against San Jose, and finally finishing up with a home game against Dallas.  The good news it that everyone but possibly Herrington will get almost two months off after that.

Looking at that schedule tomorrow is actually an important game.  Its probably the most winnable game of the group and its first when we're the most rested.  Its almost a must-win.  After that you have to think the focus will be on the Rocky Mountain Cup and Open Cup matches, with Minnesota and Dallas being lower priority.

This is also our first league match at our home in just under a month (since Miami was over at Empower).  Kickoff tomorrow is at the normal 7:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Josh Atencio (head), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Wayne Fredrick (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: D Jackson Travis (leg)

Hamzat Ojediran is also one yellow card from a suspension.  Travis did play last week when he was listed as questionable so I wouldn't expect him to start but certainly be on the bench.

We're still hurting for fully healthy central midfielders which is why I think we'll see some form of a 2-striker setup again.  Hansen over Steffen might be wishcasting but I think its time.  The rest feels fairly solid.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Navarro and Minoungou.  St. Louis is a bad team with only 9 goals scored in 10 games.  This is a 'get healthy' sort of game and we need to treat it that way.  Put them away early, maybe rotate some players in the second half, and don't struggle too much to get the three points.

Dynamo Power Down Rapids

Colorado stumbled into Houston on Saturday but put out a punch-less attack and succumbed to a laser shot from outside the box for a 1-0 loss.  Neither team played great, you could tell they were both at the end of a long stretch of 7 games in 3 weeks.  With the loss the Rapids are now 1-1-4 in their last 6 league matches.  With 5 games coming up in 2 weeks Colorado has to figure out how to play without their top lineup, and their top guys have to get better.

Random Thoughts:

• In each of the last 4 league games the Rapids have had over 57% possession.  They've got a combined 10 shots on goal with that possession.  They've allowed 7 goals in those games.  Its really hard to win when over 4 games you only have 3 more shots on target than goals allowed.
• This is the first real test for Wells.  Fixing this dichotomy before the long World Cup break and keeping us in contact with the group fighting to avoid the wild-card game is a must.
• Really can't complain about the goal allowed.  You would hope somebody could step up and shut the shot down but Steffen wasn't going to save it and it was just a well hit ball.
• That said, Steffen almost had a horrendous gaffe parrying a ball into the goal (it bounced just outside the line) and got caught in no-mans land again.  Even if you're not going to make Hansen the #1 giving Steffen a week or two off to get sorted out is a must.
• By halftime the Rapids were really out of midfield options.  Losing Atencio to injury when we only had 4 fully healthy midfielders meant the second half was going to be a struggle.  Losing Holding didn't help Wells' flexibility either.
• I know he's dealing with a leg injury but we need to talk about Paxten Aaronson (again).  He had the one shot on goal after the Rapids were down, but other than that you wouldn't have known he was on the field.  We need more for the price paid.
• This was an ugly game from both sides, you could really tell how tired and beat up the squads were.  I understand the need to compress the schedule around the World Cup but its hurting us.
• And with that, this is the end of far too many game previews/game/game reviews.  Barring any news I'm taking tomorrow off and maybe the whole week until the Friday preview.

Man of the Match: Noah Cobb.  Had to come in off the bench and partner with Herrington, which didn't work to open the season in Seattle.  This time they locked things down and Houston never really had a good look at goal.

Dynamo, Rapids, Running Out Of Gas

Before we get started there was some sad news from Centennial 38 and the Rapids today.  Ryan Sabin, one of C38's tailgate crew, passed away after a medical incident at the Open Cup game Wednesday night.  His Rapids family will miss him terribly and my thoughts are with his loved ones.  The club will wear black armbands to remember him tomorrow and there will be a moment of silence before the next home match on the 9th.

After 7 games the Rapids reach the end of this 3 weeks of 3 games with a trip to Houston.  Houston's trip to Commerce City started this sequence but the good news is that they've played just as many games as we have, and are equally beat up.  This is the last *scheduled* game between the teams in the regular season, but both are in the Open Cup quarterfinals and if both win in 2.5 weeks then the Dynamo would make one more trip to Colorado for the semifinal.  Both teams went 120 minutes in their Round of 16 match on Wednesday (though the Dynamo didn't need PKs) so they're equally tired at this point.  Kickoff tomorrow is ay 6:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Wayne Fredrick (leg), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Connor Ronan (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: M Paxten Aaronson (leg), M Georgi Minoungou (leg)

Yeah, that's a lot of midfield missing.  The Dynamo have 3 players out, including Vines, and one questionable.  Both teams are limping into this one.

That's every midfielder that's played at least 90 minutes this season and who's not on the injury report.  Maybe Wells goes to a 5-3-2 or something but my bet is that it will look something like this.  We need the guys like Herrington and Navarro to dig deep one more time, though if the game gets out of hand either way they'll be quick subs.  I know I said I wanted Hansen to be the starter in net, but with him plying 120 minutes plus a shootout on Wednesday and with a home game next week, I think its probably best to make that change against St. Louis in front of a friendly crowd.

Prediction: 2-2 draw.  Goals by Navarro and Yapi.  We beat this team 6-2 three weeks ago at home, but we were healthy and rested.  Neither is the case now.  I think we're a better team than them but I think we're going to run out of gas.

Path To The Final Is Open

Last night's game was fairly ugly to watch.  The Rapids certainly played down to their opponents while the officiating was rough.  In the end though the home side got the result and moves on to the quarterfinals for the first time in 20 years.  The Burgundy Bots took the lead twice, gave it back twice, and finally won in 7 rounds of PKs.

This morning the draw was held for the rest of the competition.  The 8 remaining teams (all MLS this year) are split into a West pot and an East pot with the winners meeting in the final.  Colorado was grouped with San Jose, Houston, and St. Louis, while Columbus, NYCFC, Orlando, and Atlanta make up the East.  For the quarterfinals the Rapids will host San Jose while S. Louis hosts Houston.  Then if Colorado beats San Jose they'll hos the StL/Hou winner in the west semifinal (if San Jose wins then the StL-Hou winner hosts them).  The final will be hosted by the winner of the eastern group.

So Colorado gets four straight home games in the USOC then travels to the final, if they get that far.  This is our best chance to win it since we reached the final in 1999.  But what stands in our wat is the hottest team in MLS, San Jose.  Top of the league, won 9 of 10 games this season, only allowed 6 goals.  If, somehow, we get by them then you would think we would be favorites to win the semis.

The semifinal will be May 19th or 20th at the Dick.  The prior weekend we're in Sandy for the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup and the following Saturday we're at home facing Dallas in our last game before the World Cup break.  San Jose has Dallas at home the weekend before and a trip to Portland after.  If I'm the Rapids I look to get (at least) a draw in Utah and punt on the Dallas game.  Should they beat San Jose the semifinal wouldn't be until mid-September, with the final in October.

Back to last night's match, some thoughts:

Random Thoughts:

• Last night really showed the gap between the leagues to me.  The Rapids went out there without two of their biggest names (Steffen and Aaronson), pulled two other notable starters at half (Cannon and Ojediran), played pretty badly the hole game, and were down a man for the last 15 minutes plus all 30 minutes of extra time, and it still took a PK for a team that was USL Champs two years ago and a playoff team last year to use that man advantage.  There's a lot of talk about how the Springs kept it close and played hard, but even with that they were struggling to stay in the game.
• Speaking of that man down, I don't know what Thompson was thinking.  Its a clear red as he swept his back leg through the legs of the Switchback.
• A couple of other big events,  First the Georgi goal to take the lead in extra time has a hint of offside, but I don't know if MLS VAR calls it back.  The EPL might, as they sit there and draw lines, but eyeballing it off the screen like MLS I don't know if there's enough there to overturn.
• Meanwhile the Switchbacks PK late in extra time seemed like BS on the 8-bit scoreboard in the stadium, but watching it on a real screen today I'm leaning towards it being the right call.  It does appear like it hit Atencio's arm and he had it out away from his body.
• Speaking of, Josh can go sit on the bench next to Steffen now.  He was involved in both Switchbacks goals.  On the first he's standing 2 yards away from an unmarked Springs attacker in the box and doesn't close him down, instead he's bouncing around like he's hoping for an outlet pass to start a break, but Hamzat is another yard past him and would be the better player to take that pass.  So then its an easy put away for that attacker.  And he missed his PK in the shootout.  A number of fans think he had a good night passing, but he wasn't involved in either Rapids goal.  Being a good passer that doesn't lead to anything isn't enough to make up for repeated defensive mistakes.
• There were a few players that seemed to struggle and revert to old habits.  Yapi seemed off (especially in the first half) and Cannon struggled at times.  To be fair to Reggie it was his first game back off of injury.
• The Rapids had a hard time adjusting to the ref.  Sometimes you get a ref that is going to be ticky-tack about things and you have to deal with it, not just complain.

Man of the Match: Rafa Navarro.  Yeah, I know, I'm becoming a broken record on this.  But he had the assist on both goals, scored his PK, and has played all but the first 69 minutes against Union Omaha in this 7 games in 19 day stretch, including the full 120 last night.  He's going to need the World Cup break when we get there.