Smash And Grab

As I predicted Minnesota and Colorado played to a 1-0 result last night.  As I failed to predict though, Colorado came out on the winning side.  For only the second time this season the Rapids lost the possession game but still managed to claim the three points.  As the saying goes, that's why they play the games.  With the win the Rapids move up into the final playoff spot (on a tiebreaker) going into the lat week before the World Cup break.

Random Thoughts:

• Last week (And before that too) I questioned if Matt Wells could adapt or if he was too wedded to his system.  Last night he came out in a 5-4-1 that morphed into a 4-2-2-2 in attack and didn't focus as much on playing out of the back.  In the post-game conference he said "To go out and play our normal shape tonight would have setting the guys up to fail". a very positive sign from Wells.
• That said, some things don't change.  Namely our physicality.  24 fouls last night, an average of 14.6 a game this season.  We're on pace for about 500 fouls this season.  The team record is 581 in 2000, 18.1/game so we probably won't hit that but this is the highest rate since 2007 (though up through 2007 foul rates were incredibly high across the league).
• A nicely worked goal by Aaronson and Navarro.  That's what we need to see out of our DPs.
• That's Navarro's 8th goal, halfway to the single-season team record, and his 12th goal involvement, just under halfway to that team record.  5 more goals will put him second all-time on the Rapids scoring list, passing Paul Bravo.  He's currently 15 behind Conor Casey for the record.
• Honestly a more fair result would have been 1-1.  Minnesota had a couple of big chances, hitting the crossbar in back-to-back shots within a minute, first by James Rodriguez and then by ex-Rapids Anthony Markanich.  They also had a goal called back due to a (clear) offside early in the second half.
• In fact the Rapids were out-possessed, out shots, out xGed, and were equal on corners.  They once again only had 2 shots on target.  But if one goes in and you pitch a shutout that's all you need sometimes.
• Shoutout to Rosenberry for a great game.  For his first start in a while he marshalled the back well.  Something you love to see.
• Herrington bounced back well from the struggles on Saturday.  He is so good.  He was named to the MLS team of the matchday.
• Miguel Navarro was the only player risking suspension for the game on Saturday and he got out without a card so everyone will be available (barring injury).
• Speaking of, Saturday is the big one.  The Rocky Mountain Cup in Sandy.  As long as we keep it to, at worst, a 1 goal loss then all we have to do is win the home match in August to retain the Cup, but I want more of a buffer than that.

Man of the Match: Nico Hansen.  A big shutout when we needed it, Hansen was well-placed on a number of Minnesota shots last night.  He also commanded his area well.  For you other old-timers he has a bit of Bouna Coundoul in him, occasionally going for short walkabouts when you wish he didn't but it didn't cost us last night.,

Rapids Start Tough Two Game Road Trip

Before we get started, the MLS Players Union annual spring salary release was today.  Given that we have 4 games in the next 11 days I'm not going to get around to covering it in detail until we reach the World Cup break, but it is out there.

Now, on to tomorrow's game.  Colorado makes the trip to the Land Of A Thousand Lakes to take on Minnesota United.  The Rapids are on a 5 game winless streak while United is coming off a home draw against Austin.  With a win Minnesota could jump to 3rd in the West, depending on other results, while a Colorado win could get them back into a playoff position.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), D Rob Holding (red card suspension), M Josh Atencio (concussion), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Hamzat Ojediran (yellow card suspension)

Also Miguel Navarro is one yellow card from suspension.  Some tough decisions are going to have to be made tomorrow.  With two big matches in the week after it I think the Rapids should punt on this match and focus on the Rocky Mountain Cup this weekend and Open Cup next Wednesday.

Unlike what I said above I expect Wells to go for it as best he can.  The fullbacks could change but the rest feels fairly solid for the XI.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Hard to see the team getting much of anything in this one, though Minnesota doesn't have a high-powered offense.  It will likely play out similar to Saturday, except without the win (and hopefully without the red card).

Punchless

Another game, another two shots on goal total (and one of them was an Aaronson free kick that almost certainly would have been off the bar if it wasn't parried), another loss.  And this against a team that was giving up close to two goals a game coming in and scoring less that one.  Its becoming clear that the league has figured out how to shut down Wells' system and he has yet to adjust.

The other talking point in this one was the Holding red card.  It was a weak call at best and completely bogus in reality.  Never should have been a red.  That said the Rapids were adrift even before the card so I don't think it changed the outcome.

With the 1-0 loss the Rapids drop to 12th in the west on PPG, tied with San Diego, and 23rd in the league over all.  They are 6 points back of the non-wild card playoff spots and their three remaining pre-World Cup break league matches are against 5th, 6th, and 7th in the West.

Random Thoughts:

• The Rapids now have 12 shots on goal in the last 5 league games, while giving up 8 goals.  FotMob is showing 9 big chances in those 5 games.  We're out possessing the other team.  Generating corner kicks, keeping the ball around the box, and yet can't turn that into quality chances and goals.
• The one St. Louis goal was a combination of some well placed bounces and some inexperienced play.  Holding got beat to a header, the ball bounced past Herrington, and Lucas learned that his speed won't always save him.  With a little more experience he's a step or two further back and shuts down the breakaway before it starts.  Then Hansen came out and got nothing but air, not even making it difficult for the attacker to go around him.  Again, a lesson learned.
• I'm not sure how Durkin's red card was a second yellow and not a straight red.  The ref had a bad night.
• FotMob also had Aaronson with the best rating on the night, which is damning with faint praise given that nobody rated 7 or better.  Its just not enough out of him though, he had two good passes in the 72nd minute that set up shots and the free kick that wasn't going to be scored and that was it.
• If Minoumgou doesn't miss the header at the end of the game we're probably having a very different discussion but he put it way off target.  For all his good ball work he needs it to turn into something more.
• Ojediran picked up a yellow so he'll be suspended on Wednesday along with Holding being suspended for his red card.
• The focus in this one should really be on Wells.  5 games into this winless streak and we've scored 3 goals in the 5 games and are on a 237' scoreless streak.  Its time to admit that his plan isn't working and change something.
• We now he to Minnesota and Sandy.  Two tough games before what is likely to be our biggest game of the first half of the year, the Open Cup quarterfinal.  At this point I'm fine if we bag the league for these next two weeks and focus on not getting blown out in Sandy (to keep the Rocky Mountain Cup alive) and beating San Jose next Wednesday.  If that means we lose in Minnesota and to Dallas at home, so be it.  Pick up the pieces after the World Cup break with hopefully a winnable semifinal at home in September.

Man of the Match: Miguel Navarro.  Nobody showed out particularly well but the other Navarro had a solid game at a position where we've been struggling.

Time To Turn Things Around

 

This is the first time back at the Dick since we lost Ryan Sabin from a medical incident at the Open Cup match.  As you can see above Centennial 38 will be remembering him in a number of ways tomorrow. Please join us.

The Rapids finally got a full week off to rest and get healthy, only to turn around and start another 5 games in the next two weeks leading into the World Cup break.  We're home against St. Louis tomorrow, on the road in Minnesota on Wednesday, we have the Rocky Mountain Cup first leg in the dark place next weekend, then back at the Dick for the USOC Quarterfinal against San Jose, and finally finishing up with a home game against Dallas.  The good news it that everyone but possibly Herrington will get almost two months off after that.

Looking at that schedule tomorrow is actually an important game.  Its probably the most winnable game of the group and its first when we're the most rested.  Its almost a must-win.  After that you have to think the focus will be on the Rocky Mountain Cup and Open Cup matches, with Minnesota and Dallas being lower priority.

This is also our first league match at our home in just under a month (since Miami was over at Empower).  Kickoff tomorrow is at the normal 7:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Josh Atencio (head), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Wayne Fredrick (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: D Jackson Travis (leg)

Hamzat Ojediran is also one yellow card from a suspension.  Travis did play last week when he was listed as questionable so I wouldn't expect him to start but certainly be on the bench.

We're still hurting for fully healthy central midfielders which is why I think we'll see some form of a 2-striker setup again.  Hansen over Steffen might be wishcasting but I think its time.  The rest feels fairly solid.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Navarro and Minoungou.  St. Louis is a bad team with only 9 goals scored in 10 games.  This is a 'get healthy' sort of game and we need to treat it that way.  Put them away early, maybe rotate some players in the second half, and don't struggle too much to get the three points.

Dynamo Power Down Rapids

Colorado stumbled into Houston on Saturday but put out a punch-less attack and succumbed to a laser shot from outside the box for a 1-0 loss.  Neither team played great, you could tell they were both at the end of a long stretch of 7 games in 3 weeks.  With the loss the Rapids are now 1-1-4 in their last 6 league matches.  With 5 games coming up in 2 weeks Colorado has to figure out how to play without their top lineup, and their top guys have to get better.

Random Thoughts:

• In each of the last 4 league games the Rapids have had over 57% possession.  They've got a combined 10 shots on goal with that possession.  They've allowed 7 goals in those games.  Its really hard to win when over 4 games you only have 3 more shots on target than goals allowed.
• This is the first real test for Wells.  Fixing this dichotomy before the long World Cup break and keeping us in contact with the group fighting to avoid the wild-card game is a must.
• Really can't complain about the goal allowed.  You would hope somebody could step up and shut the shot down but Steffen wasn't going to save it and it was just a well hit ball.
• That said, Steffen almost had a horrendous gaffe parrying a ball into the goal (it bounced just outside the line) and got caught in no-mans land again.  Even if you're not going to make Hansen the #1 giving Steffen a week or two off to get sorted out is a must.
• By halftime the Rapids were really out of midfield options.  Losing Atencio to injury when we only had 4 fully healthy midfielders meant the second half was going to be a struggle.  Losing Holding didn't help Wells' flexibility either.
• I know he's dealing with a leg injury but we need to talk about Paxten Aaronson (again).  He had the one shot on goal after the Rapids were down, but other than that you wouldn't have known he was on the field.  We need more for the price paid.
• This was an ugly game from both sides, you could really tell how tired and beat up the squads were.  I understand the need to compress the schedule around the World Cup but its hurting us.
• And with that, this is the end of far too many game previews/game/game reviews.  Barring any news I'm taking tomorrow off and maybe the whole week until the Friday preview.

Man of the Match: Noah Cobb.  Had to come in off the bench and partner with Herrington, which didn't work to open the season in Seattle.  This time they locked things down and Houston never really had a good look at goal.