Final Game Before The Break

This long run of 18 games in  just under 13 weeks ends tomorrow with our final match before the two month World Cup break.  Tomorrow our old friends Dallas are in town and are more rested then we are, not having a midweek game.  Regardless they've struggled against us in recent years so hopefully that continues.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30pm and there's a fireworks show after the match.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

Coach Availability:

OUT: HC Matt Wells (yellow card suspension)

Yeah, the numerous yellow cards to the bench have caught up with us.  Wells has to sit out because of them and can't be involved in pregame or halftime.  I'm sure he'll set the lineup but after that its on the shoulders of assistant coach Ally Harris.

Miguel Navarro is also one yellow from suspension.

I have a feeling hat a lot of guys are going to be running on fumes after the high of Wednesday night.  We need one more game out of Rafa and Herrington (and lets hope its not the last game in burgundy black for either of them) as they're irreplaceable but I wouldn't be surprised if they don't go 90.  Everyone else is going to be on heavy rotation I expect.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  I almost put down a 2-2 draw, if the teams were coming off equal rest I'd like our chances to get a result here but with the added minutes I don't think we'll be able to keep up.

The Streak Is Broken!

Going into last night the Rapids hadn't beaten a MLS team in the Open Cup in 20 years.  They hadn't beat a MLS team in any knockout competition in 10 years*.  Well reset those counters because the Rapids pulled off a bit of an upset with a 2-0 win over San Jose that probably wasn't that close.  Goals right before half from Yapi and Navarro held up in what was a sluggish second half and we're on to the semifinals for the third time in our history and first time since the Miami team were still called the Fusion (1999).

* - The Rapids got 3rd place in the Leagues Cup after facing Philly in that game, but technically that game was recorded as a draw with Kicks From the Mark deciding who got 3rd place and the CCC spot

Early on Hansen came up with a big double-save to keep things scoreless though I'm not sure the first one was going in and I'm not sure how much he knew about the second one (which was very much on target and hit him in the shoulder) but after the first 15 minutes San Jose went somewhat quiet.  They had possession and corners but couldn't turn them into shots.  Meanwhile Colorado played its way into the game.  Rafa got a goal called back for offside (a call I still don't understand), then in the 39th minute Sealy found Yapi with a cross that he finished for a 1-0 lead.  6 minutes later it was the Earthquakes called for handling in the box and Rafa made it 2-0 heading to the half.

The second half was two tired team but Colorado was at home and had the momentum.  By the time San Jose started finishing shots it was too late and the shots they got weren't dangerous.  Nobody wanted to jinx things but it felt pretty confident the Rapids would see this out and they did.

With the win the Open Cup will be back at the Dick for the semifinal...in September.  Between the World Cup and the Leagues Cup that's the first open spot on the schedule.  September 15th or 16th the Rapids will host St. Louis while Columbus will host Orlando in the semifinals.  The two winners will face off in the final on October 21ist, hosted by the Columbus - Orlando winner.  Looking at the teams and the standings today you have to figure the East semi winner is probably the favorite given the home field advantage (particularly if its Orlando) but the Rapids are the best placed team in the standings of the four.  In fact they're the only one averaging over 1 point a game so far.

One note on the semifinal is that Nico Hansen goes in one yellow from suspension.  Its a long-time and a lot of games between now and September but we'll have to see how that plays into the lineup.  Do you start Hansen with the risk that he could pick up a yellow and be suspended for the final if we win?  Do you start Steffen knowing that Hansen would the be sure of being available for a possible final?  Nico is the only Rapid in this position, barring a red card in the semi everyone else would be available for the final if we get there.

Looking at the schedule in August/September we'll host FSL the last weekend of August, then a week layer we go to Columbus, go to Austin in midweek, and then host Montreal.  Then St. Louis in the semifinal, then we host Seattle on the weekend.  So another run of 5 games in two weeks.  After that there are only 8 games left in the season, and should we make the final it would be ANOTHER 5 games in two weeks where we host San Jose and Minnesota, go to Portland, go to the Final, and go to San Jose.

What this means is that once we get through (and win!) the Rocky Mountain Cup the week before Labor Day we may need to take stock of where we are and our realistic chances to make the playoffs and make any noise there.  If we're barely hanging on to s spot or are on the outside looking in the right play, in my opinion, is to punt on the regular season and go all in on the semifinal.  St. Louis, despite what they did to us a week and a half ago, is not a good team.  We should beat them at home, especially if we rotate the roster to put out a full strength rested side.  Then you're in a final and anything can happen.

This also plays into what moves we might make in the summer window.  If we're being honest, this team is very unlikely to win MLS Cup this year (but so was the 2010 team).  If all we had to play for was the playoffs you could see selling Herrington or Rafa if the right deal came along.  Now?  One game at home we'll likely be favored in from a final?  The Rapids can't sell them without either a loan-back-until-end-of-season option or being 100% absolutely sure they've got a equal or better replacement coming in.  And I mean a "we replaced McMath with Howard in 2016" level sure-thing, not a "we're throwing all the Djordje money at Aaronson as a replacement" move.  Otherwise you explain to Rafa and Lucas that we fully support them taking the next step, but there's no way we can sell them when this team has a shot at its first real success in 16 years.  As soon as this season is over though, we'll get a deal done.

This is already longer than I expected but I've got a couple more things.  First, so we don't end on a negative note, if you watched the broadcast of the game you saw that after Yapi's goal a can was thrown out of C38's section, hitting the San Jose keeper in the head.  This is, very obviously, completely unacceptable.  A combination of C38 leadership, Argus staff, and Commerce City police worked together to identify who threw it.  That person was pulled out of the stands, handcuffed, and escorted out of the stadium by CCPD (and presumably arrested).  Crap like that will not be allowed to stand in our section.

Second, on a better note, I have to tip the cap to Matt Wells.  10 days ago after the St. Louis loss I said tow rite off everything but the Rocky Mountain Cup and the quarterfinal, and I had real doubts about our ability to get either of those done.  Instead he took the team to Minnesota, stole a win, then went into Sandy and at least achieved the bare minimum, which was keeping the damage to a one-goal loss which allows us to win the RMC just by winning our home game.  And he did it by keeping guys enough rested that they were able to come out and control the game last night and get us a somewhat comfortable win.  Now we may collapse in exhaustion on Saturday against Dallas but really, who cares.  He got enough results in the last 3 games that Saturday really doesn't matter.  Any thing there is gravy.

Man of the Match: Darren Yapi.  Lots of choices last night but his well timed goal I think really punctured San Jose's hopes and gave us the belief that maybe was wavering after Rafa's first goal was VARed off.  That set up the second goal before half, at which point San Jose was done.

Quarterfinals

Well this is new.  This happens to be the 2700th entry in this blog and its the first time we're talking about a U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal.  The last time the Rapids made it this far was August of 2007, about 6 months before I opened this place up (USL Seattle slaughtered us 5-0 up in the PacNW).  It took a long time to get back here but this time we get to host. Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm and remember extra-time and PKs are possible late tomorrow night.

That's the upside.  The downside is that we host red-hot San Jose.  Well, they were red-hot when they win their Round of 16 match and were drawn against us, having won all their USOC games and 9 of their first 10 league matches  They then drew their next two games and have lost their last two after that.  This has roughly coincided with an injury to star striker Timo Werner.  He was OUT for their game on Saturday and the word is that he was expected back in late-May but the 'Quakes are being cautious about rushing him back.  That suggests he won't start tomorrow but might be available off the bench?

There's no update for the Rapids on the injury front but I think its a safe bet Steffen is still out and we know KDP is.  Harris was out on Saturday due to illness so hopefully he'll be available.  If so then, barring any injury in training, Steffen and KDP should be the extend of the injury report.  Kosi Thompson will be suspended after his red card against the Switchbacks however.

So the starting XI will really come down to who's rested and who isn't.  I expect Wells to try to get one more game out of Rafa's legs, and Aaronson has been rotated a bit.  Yapi and holding didn't start in Sandy so I'd expect them in, and Herrington is young and we'll probably try to get 90 more minutes out of his legs.  Hansen in net.  The other 5 though?  Anyone's guess.

The winner tomorrow will move to the semifinal in September to face St. Louis, who just beat Houston in penalty kicks.  If its the Rapids they will host the semifinal.  If its the Earthquakes they'll travel to Missouri.  The winner of the semifinal will travel to the winner of Orlando at tomorrow's Columbus-NYCFC match for the final in October.

As always, no prediction for a USOC game.  Its just too hard to tell what the focus will be.  Though that will change should we win as the semifinal and any potential final are clearly going to be a top priority.

The More Things Change...

I was planning to go into a typical writeup of the Rapids once again failing in Sandy, something the doesn't seem to change no matter how many times we change coaches or players.  However Matt Doyle summed it up nicely in his weekly recap column ay TacticsFreeZone.  Side note, go give Matt a subscription, he's doing the best job covering every team every week out there.

A couple of things I’ve been thinking about since Matchday 2 for the Colorado Rapids:

1. They have a lot of guys who, uh, let’s just say “aren’t great passers of the ball.” But they are committed to building from the back. How’s that going to work for the long term?
2. Head coach Matt Wells is very committed to not only building from the back, but to playing ultra-physical, fast and furious, high-pressing soccer. Is there going to be 1) buy-in, and 2) attrition?

He's right, on both counts.  He goes on to point out that Jackson Travis casually passing back and losing the ball led directly to FSL's first goal and the like of energy and press played a large part in FSL's second goal.  The positive side of things is that he believes (and I agree) that there has been buy-in from the roster on Wells' system so its not a desire problem, its a talent one.

Looking at those two goals, on the first Travis is just too casual with his backpass and it gets deflected and at that point everyone is out of position and scrambling.  Really, at this point, Travis shouldn't be starting.  Wells made the decision to go with a Herrington-Navarro centerback pairing and it cost us this goal.  Navarro had a solid game so maybe it was overall the best decision but it did result in FSL levelling the match.

On the second there's just too much open space.  Nobody closes down Sanabria, Aaronson is working his way over there, and he has plenty of time to whip in the cross.  Solans just finds a big space between Herrington and Holding to head it home.  Herrington was on him, then slides over towards Sanabria and Holding doesn't slide as fast leaving a big hole for Solans to sit in.

It wasn't all bad.  We started hot with a quick goal.  A Ronan corner was trapped by Aaronson and pushed back in front of goal where Fredrick hammered it home.  The problem is that after that 7th minute goal there were only two more shots on target, the rest of the game, and none after falling behind.  In fact the Rapids only have 1 goal in the final 30 minutes of a league match this season when trailing (Yapi's 62nd minute goal to level the Miami game at 2).

Part of this is because FSL completely took Rafa out of the game.  He only had 3 touches in the box and 1 shot on target.  Hard to get very far in attack when your MVP is not in the game.  My hope is that this was just a really good defensive effort and not an indication that we've pushed Navarro to hard.  We need one more game out of him on Wednesday.

The good news is that by keeping it to a one goal loss (as I predicted) then the Rapids just have to win the home game in August, by any score, to keep the Rocky Mountain Cup.  If we can't beat FSL at home then we don't deserve to keep the Cup.

Man of the Match: Wayne Frederick.  What little offense we had did run through him and of course he got the goal.  I was wrong about him, he's still developing but he's a lot better than he showed last season.

This Needs No Introduction

But we're going to do it anyway.  We all know what tomorrow is, the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup.  We're over in Sandy at KKK Slogan Field for this one (I had to resist the urge to use this as the header picture).  A reminder of the rules.  Most points, most goals, then its essentially a tie and the current holders retain the Rocky Mountain Cup.  That's us this year.  So in practice that means a one goal loss or better means we just have to win the home game in August to retain the Cup.  Anything better than that just makes the job easier.  Kickoff for the rivalry clash is at 7:30pm.

Good luck to the travelling C38 support that leave the Dick at 6:30am tomorrow.  Its never fun having to enter the dark place.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (upper body), M Alex Harris (illness), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

QUESTIONABLE: M Josh Atencio (concussion)

Miguel Navarro is still one yellow from suspension.  Atencio travelled with the team to Utah and will be available but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't start.

Not sure on the wingers or the right back, but the rest feels fairly solid.  I do think Yapi will start but we could push back into that 2-striker formation too.  Regardlss some guys need to dig deep for this on and on Wednesday for the Open Cup.  If there's nothing left for Dallas in a week, so be it.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  FSL is, sadly, a better team than us right now and they're at home.  But I do think Wells has the team in the right mentality to not get blown out in Sandy like we've seen far too many times.  Rafa gets an important goal to keep it close and we hang on with everything to get out with just a one goal deficit and et up for a win or go home type game in August.