Deja Vu

Another game against St. Louis, another Holding red card, another 1-0 loss, another Miguel Navarro man of the match performance.  If you watched the game in May at the Dick you largely saw this game in St, Louis.  It was not good.  The main differences is that the red card this time was fully justified, a bad pass back from Yapi that Holding tried to control instead of clear and it all went sideways.

Rather than spending any more time on the game with not much to talk about we're going to take a look at where we are.  Its the midpoint of the season (17 games) and we're 3 points behind either of the Chris Armas seasons.  Now, as I pointed out in June, the schedule has not bee friendly to us but the last two games have been against weaker opposition and we've been 1-1, with one goal scored and one allowed.  This is not us stepping up our game.

We've now gone 9 games scoring 0 or 1 goals.  That's the longest single season streak since 2017 where Pablo's last game in charge kicked off a 12 game run of 0's or 1's.  (Between 2023 and 2024 we went 10 games, 3 in '23 and 7 in '24, with 0-1 goals).  The last time we put two past the opposing keeper was when Messi was in town.  This team has not come from behind to take the lead in a game this season.

Meanwhile apparently Wells "exchanged words" with the St. Louis coaching staff after the game.  This one confuses me as I can't think of anything StL did during the game that the coaching staff should be that upset about.  This is a pattern developing though where Wells goes off on the refs or the other coaching staff or something when the Rapids struggle.  It makes me start to wonder if that's his response to not having answers which, isn't great.

What we seem to have is a team bereft of offensive ideas that's slowly sinking down the table.  They're compensating for that by being at the top of the fouls and cards list (though also at the top of the fouls suffered) list and the manager is all in on the strategy.  The next two games are at home against the teams and the bottom of the Western conference.  They are both must wins, and they need to be must wins where we're clearly in control and are clearly winning the game.  If that doesn't happen its hard to see how this season goes anywhere.

Man of the Match: Miguel Navarro.  Picked ip an injury in training so didn't start, but was pressed into service after the 12th minute red card.  Shortly after entering he seemed to dislocate his finger and calmly let the training staff pop it back into place, then went out and finished the game with a strong performance.

USOC Semifinal Preview

We're off to the far side of Missouri to get a sneak peak at our U.S. Open Cup semi opponents in September as the Rapids play St. Louis tomorrow night.  StL came into the Dick back in May and stole a 1-0 win on a goal both Holding and Herrington would want back.  The Rapids need to figure out if they can fix their offense, the last time we put a crooked number on the scoreboard it was on the fully working scoreboard at Empower Field.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6:30 MT.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No change on the injury front, but we get Miguel Navarro and Wayne Fredrick back from suspension.  Fredrick signed a new contract extension today, taking him through the 2029-2030 season with a club option for an additional season.  We'll have to wait until the salary drop in September to know what kind of raise he got.

I'm not sure who will get the start on the wings, but otherwise I feel good about this lineup.  Other than Herrington everyone gets a week off after this, so going back-to-back shouldn't be a problem for anyone.  I think Williams gets rewarded with another start and Herrington cycles in for Holding.  Wells had a lot of good things to say about Kosi Wednesday night so I see him starting again too.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rafa.  I can't predict the Rapids getting more than 1 until they prove they can.  Meanwhile St. Louis improve during the break and I can't see them being shut out at home.  Our defense is strong enough to keep them from running us over, but I don't see 3 points coming.

It Was The Best Of Times, It Was The Worst Of Times

Last night the Rapids looked like world beaters in the defensive third and midfield.  Then they looked like the world was beating on them in the attacking third.  For most of the game they held San Diego without a shot, much less any danger or xG.  San Diego didn't get their first shot until the 64th minute, but suddenly by the 69th minute they had more shots on target and more xG than the Rapids.  

That's how it was going for the home side in the attacking third.  Their best shot for most of the night came in the 9th minute and it was right against the near post, so depending on which stats you read it may not have even counted as a shot on target.  Their second one was in the 96th minute, and lucky for the us, it went in.  Colorado escaped with a 1-0 win that they both did not deserve and absolutely deserved.

The first half press looked as good as anything we saw this season.  San Diego didn't really get a controlled touch in the Rapids box until the second half.  Even in the second half it was really an 7 minute period from the 64th to the 71st where San Diego looked at all dangerous, outside of that they had two shots that were blocked with a combined total of 0.06 xG.  There was even a point where the Rapids press had won the ball right at midfield and Holding was just standing on the ball and San Diego had no energy to press him so a few seconds went by of everyone just not moving.

The problem came every time Colorado got near San Diego's box.  Great passing up to that point but they could not find a way through.  Navarro was a non-entity in this game, Minoungou kept dribbling into blind alleys, and Aaronson was more interested in passing than shooting.  There were 2-3 chances where Paxten needed to just shoot at goal and instead tried a cross pass three players or tried to dribble for a better opening, or otherwise let the opportunity go by him.  Frustrating from the $8M man.  The two times we broke through and put the ball in the net they were both, correctly, called back for offside.

Late in the match Cannon, after an iffy night for him (he was responsible for the offside that disallowed one of the goals, among other tings), was lucky not to be called for a PK.  Chris Penso was sent to the VAR monitor but returned with a no foul call.  I think that was the correct call because the PK foul was not 'clear and obvious' IMO and probably should not have been sent down.  However it was close enough that had Penson called it in real time I would have said the same thing about VAR calling down to overturn it, as it would not be clear and obviously wrong.

Finally, deep into stoppage time Aaronson got behind .the San Diego line and sent in a bit of a desperation cross to the center of the box.  Waiting there just happened to be the new guy, Loic Williams, who half volleyed a bouncer to the far post that took a slight deflection as well.  It wasn't pretty but the only goal of the match in the final minute doesn't need to be.  A great opener for him (he got the start and played all 90) and settled in well.  Its too early to really judge but the initial returns looked like we have a legitimate third starter at center back.

Speaking of which, Herrington mostly got the night off on his return from the World Cup, just having a cameo appearance in stoppage time.  I thought that was a bit odd given that he only made two appearances in the World Cup, but we do have a game on Sunday and then he's off to Charlotte as the only Rapid in the All-Star Game, so probably good load management for him.

This was a good three points for the Rapids, but it showed that we are still struggling to turn possession into dangerous chances.  I was hoping Wells could work on that over the break but it looked much like our pre-break games, just with a better press. Five of our next six games are winnable if we figure this out, but if we don't the season is all but done.

Man of the Match: Nico Hansen.  I mentioned the two shots on target at the beginning but the first one was a very dangerous attack that Hansen managed to just get a touch on and send over the bar, and the second was also a good save.  Without his efforts Williams' goal doesn't matter.

2026 Part 2

Now what are we doing again?  Oh, right, MLS season.  We've already spent enough time looking back so lets just look forward now.  The Rapids need to rack up points in July and August before the schedule gets hard again in September, and that starts tomorrow night with San Diego in town.  Colorado has not made many changes during the World Cup break, Manyoma, Murphy, and Ronan has left (Murphy will be back tomorrow night with SD) and Loic Williams has joined but that's it.  San Diego has been a bit more active.  This is 12th vs. 13th in the table so both sides are looking at this like 3 points they need to jump start their season.  Kickoff tomorrow night at the Dick is at the traditional 7:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Miguel Navarro (yellow card accumulation), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Wayne Fredrick (red card suspension), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

Yuck, though not surprising.  We knew Steffen and KDP had surgeries and would be out long term.  Both M. Navarro and Frederick played dumb last game (imagine yelling at the official who was in the center for England-Argentina and thinking you were going to get away with it) to get their suspension.  Billo Diop was unlikely to ever play a big role in this game, even if we weren't expecting his injury.  Travis is the one that really hurts since M. Navarro is also out.

We don't really know how the break went but I expect this to be close.  I don't think Williams gets the start but he should be on the bench.  If Wells is uncomfortable with Cannon at LB we could see a 3-man back line with Williams starting and a couple of wingbacks (Minoungou and Thompson for example).

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rafa.  Going to be a lot of rust out there and neither of these teams were good before the break.  A draw isn't great but it would be (barely) acceptable given the time off and the player availability.  A loss would be fairly disastrous but a win is certainly not out of the question.

Top Kits Of The World Cup

One last kit post before we get back to our regularly scheduled Rapids coverage.  Going to break this down into top kits by confederation plus a couple of additional categories before doing a top X overall.

Top Kit - Oceania - New Zealand Away

With only one team, the choices were limited.  I almost went with the goalkeeper kit but that felt like cheating a bit.  The white looked better than the dark,

Top Kit - AFC - Australia Away

Yeah, I forgot Australia is Asian in FIFA terms sometimes too.  I really like the two tones of this one. A woman I work with is Australian and wore one of these to the office on game day and it looks even better in person.

Top Kit - AFC - Sportswashing Division - Saudi Arabia Home

If it weren't for what it represents this would be one of the top kits of the tournament for me.  I love the green and purple color combo with the tiled motif.  But I will not be supporting Saudi Arabia in any format.

Top Kit - UEFA - Norway Home

This is the kit I've been trying to track down with no luck, waiting too long to try to get it.  A simple design of the flag that comes off very bold.  Even with my Swedish heritage I'd be happy to have this one in the collection.

Top Kit(s) - CAF - Ivory Coast Away

I couldn't choose between my top two CAF kits so you get them both.  First the Ivory Coast away kit with this great pattern of local flora and fauna.  For a long time west Africa has had some of the great tournament kits, I have two different Cameroon ones from the 2010's.  This continues that run.

AND

DR Congo Home

The colors of this kit really work together (even the yellow badge) and the zebra pattern gives a unique spin on the kit.  One of the kits we wouldn't have seen without the expansion to 48.  Also what the team ahs been doing to try to bring visibility to the issues in their country is important.

Top Kit -  CONMEBOL - Paraguay Away

This one surprised me as I didn't pick it out as a highlight during the kit releases.  Seeing it on the field, first against the U.S. but also later in the tournament and I was taken with how good it looked.  I like the way the white badge pops against the blues and blacks, one of the times changing the logo works.

Top Kit - CONCACAF - Haiti Home

This is the original kit before FIFA forced them to remove their freedom fighters from the kit.  Its an important nod to Haiti's history and given everything else FIFA has allowed not allowing this is another example of their double standards.  IT was a tough call between this and the third kit, which is the same design on red, but the collar works better here.

Top Kit - CONCACAF - Rivalry Division - Mexico Home

I mean, come on, that's a top-tier kit.  But its Mexico so this is the only time I'll ever admit that.

So after that, my top five overall:

Norway Home

DR Congo Home

Paraguay Away

Haiti Home

Ivory Coast Away

At different times during the tournament I've looked at buying all of those, but haven't yet pulled the trigger on any of them yet.