Colorado Does What It Needed To

A solid, if maybe unconvincing, win in Commerce City Saturday night is what the Rapids needed entering this 3 game week.  SKC made it easier by putting up a red card in each half but even before the first Colorado looked like the better team.  That said, it wasn't all easy, a former Rapid had two good chances to put SKC on the scoreboard, but Calvin Harris couldn't quite reach the end of a perfect cross, then put a breakaway off the post.  Part of the reason he's no longer in Colorado.

With the win the Rapids would be in the last playoff spot if the season ended today, with a wild card game in Seattle.  They are dead on the Bodmer Line at 1.32 PPG, putting us on track for the exact average point total (44-45) for the last playoff spot.

The reason this game wasn't that convincing is that the Rapids still struggled to find the final shot.  28 shots, 7 big chances, only 4 shots on target (1 off the bar too).  2 of them went in, which is great, but up an man they managed only two shots on goal, and up two men they only managed one (Rafa's goal).  That's actually half as many as they had against Austin two weeks ago 11v11.  14 shots on target in the 4 games since we've been back is still something that needs to be fixed.

Still, a win is a win and 3 wins in 3 at home is a great set of results.  We're doing what we need to when we need to.  Only one goal allowed since the break too.  It does leave us in a spot where writing off the rest of the league season to focus on the Cups would be absurd, but going all in on the playoff run is unlikely to pay off with significantly improved odds.  So it continues to be a balancing act.

Another positive sign from this game was the assists on both goals.  On the first our new signing, Youssef Maziz, dropped a great corner kick right on to Cannon's head.  If he can bring a Jack Price-esque style to our set pieces that would be a good addition.  Maziz looked good during his play from the field as well.  On the second goal Aaronson made a nice move and put a cross actually in the est place it could go, slightly behind Rafa, which allowed Navarro to spin, receive the ball, and then spin back with time to pick his spot.  If Youssef can unlock Paxten that's w win.

Also that goal tied Rafa with Diego Rubio with 38 goals all-time (regular season matches), 4th on the all-time list.  Next up is a tie for 2nd between Omar Cummings and Paul Bravo at 39.  Presumably he gets to and passes that this season, barring injury.  Then its a jump up to Conor Casey on the top of the record book at 50.

Next up is a tough one, LAFC at home on short rest.  Then a trip out to SoCal to play San Diego before a week off before the Rocky Mountain Cup.  Beating FSL is a must but getting one point out of the other two games would be acceptable, more than that would be a good step into showing we're improving from what we've been.

Man of the Match: Reggie Cannon.  Scored the first goal, drew the second red card, and overall was active and involved in a way we hadn't seen for a while.  Right back hasn't been fully locked down this seasons, maybe this is a step towards really claiming it again.

OG Matchup

The KC Wiz, er, Kansas City Wizards, er, Sporting Kansas City are in town for tomorrow night's matchup between two original teams.  Our I-70s rivals are in contention for the Wooden Spoon this season and this is a game we must take advantage of.  Before the match the team is going to have a short celebration to honor Keegan Rosenberry's 200th appearance last game.  The ceremony will start at 7:15 with kickoff at the normal 7:30 (or thereabouts).

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Kimani Stewart-Baynes (lower leg), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No surprises there.  The one surprise is the name that's not there, Youssef Maziz.  Our new midfielder got his visa earlier this week and is eligible for selection.  He was not allowed to train with the team until the paperwork came through though, he was only allowed to do individual fitness and skill training.  That makes it very unlikely that he starts but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 15-20 minutes if the game state allows it.

Also Atencio, Rafa Navarro, and Ojediran are all one yellow card from suspension.

This seems straight forward.  While I would start Yapi its clear that Wells doesn't rate him as a starter.  Minoungou and Sealy seem to be the favored winger options.  Everyone else is fairly self-explanatory.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Navarro and Yapi (off the bench).  There's really no excuse to not wi this game by at least 2.  KC is a horrible team and we need to show we can handle teams like this.  Any sort of struggle and its a good sign we should just focus on the Rocky Mountain and Open Cups for the rest of the season.

Rapids Sell Herrington For Record Amount

So long Lucas, ,we hardly knew you.  The long-rumored deal with Hull City was made official today.  Per Tom Bogert and Braidon Nourse the terms were $17 million up front, $6 million in potential performance add-ons, and a 15% sell-on fee.  Depending on the exact number this will probably be the 7th highest fee paid for a MLS player and if the performance incentives hit (and they should) it would jump to second, based on Wikipedia data.  Its easily the most ever paid for a defender, the prior record being the $8M the Rapids got for Moise Bombito.

This is a deal the Rapids had to make.  Yes we're midseason and in a Cup run, but you can't pass up what could easily be a $25M total payday for an 18 year old you spent a million on less than a year ago.  Its not fair to the player and its not a smart move.  And credit to the Rapids, getting Williams in appears to have given us sufficient coverage to handle this move.

As far as Herrington goes, he is very likely going to have the best post-Rapids career of any former player.  Rapids players have gone on to do good things, from Marcus Hahnemann to Auston Trusty, but no player has left this young at this value.  There's a decent chance we're going to be able to say "I saw that guy play when he was just coming up".  Lucas was fun to watch and composed beyond his years.

With this move arguably the most important 6-12 months in Rapids history has started.  Padraig Smith came out and said today that all the money from the sale will be reinvested into the club.  Then we have the USOC run.  At the end of the season the KSE leadership will have to decide if they're keeping Smith, and in what capacity.  Once the calendar flips to 2027 we've got the sprint season and then the start of the winter schedule.  Each of these are major turning points for this club.  Which makes the following both expected and disappointing 

Sport5 (Israel's ESPN) is reporting a deal has been struck for Maccabi Tel Aviv forward Sayed Abu Farhi.  The report is $6M plus a 25% sell-on clause.  Burgundy Wave can confirm the Rapids are interested in him, but can not confirm the size of the offer.  Abu Farhi is listed as a forward but some basic research suggests he might be more of a winger or outside striker.  Transfermrkt, not always the most reliable, lists his value at about $2.3M

This seems like a massive overpay for a player from a league that's not as good as MLS.  However if the deal is 6 million Israeli shekels + the sell-on, that's about $2M, which would be much more in line with his value.  Still feels like an overpay but he wouldn't instantly become the second highest purchased Rapids player.  If we really pay $6M for him it feels like another Padraig Smith special, where we look for a diamond in the rough instead of paying for proven talent.

Reports like that just reinforces the feeling I have that this team is not prepared for this critical juncture.  I haven't seen anything since Kevin Demoff took more of a hands on approach 9-10 months ago that suggests this club is going to change course and really take advantage of this.  Its the same 'Moneyball' approach that, obviously, paid off with Herrington but does not look repeatable anywhere else than center back and the same hesitancy to spend notable money in notable areas of need on or off the field.  Smith is out there making the same sort of promises that he makes every summer, and based on what we've seen so far he's not backing them up with real moves that will pay off now.  Quite simply Padraig Smith can not return in any sporting capacity if the club expects to be taken seriously by the fans and the rest of the league.

As Burgundy Wave put it today:

In April, the Colorado Rapids had their most profitable home game in club history. Today, they broke their record transfer fee by double. There is no excuse for leaving the scoreboard at DSGP as it is. It needs to be replaced in 2027.

 Not just the scoreboard.  There's no excuse for this team to still be a moneyballing-also ran in 2027.

Stats Say Good, Eye Test Says Bad

 

Saturday night was a rough watch.  Colorado had pretty much all the play.  64% possession.  Eleven corners to none.  50 touches in the box to 8.  5 big chances to 1.  At no point did it feel like Austin was going to score unless they got lucky on a free kick or got a weird deflection on a ball.

The problem is that it didn't feel like the Rapids were going to score either.  Only one of those "big chances" really felt dangerous, and that was in a scrum in the box in the first few minutes of the game.  Otherwise it was the same going through the motions that we've seen for a few games.  The Rapids did create more chances than they have been, but there was still a dearth of good final passes to set up good shots.

The last minute PK was a gift from Austin, as there was no way we were going to score on our own in this one.  Rafa did a great job burying it, it seems like his PK issues are behind him now that he's stopped the stutter-step.  But it felt more like 2 points stolen than a win we truly deserved, even if the stats said otherwise.

This is now 10 league games in a row without scoring more than one goal, that most in a single season since a 12 game stretch in late spring/early summer 2015.  The fact that we've gotten 6 points in 3 games out of the World Cup break while only scoring 2 goals is a testament to our defense, and the (lack of) quality of our opponents.  Of course our defense is going to take a serious hit this week with the sale of Herrington (more on that later this week when it becomes official).

The Rapids get a week off with the Leagues Cup weekend, and will be back hope playing last-place KC on the 15th.  A must win, and a must win convincingly, sort of game for them.

Man of the Match: Loic Williams.  Stepped in for the suspended Holding and was nice and smooth holding down that left center back spot.  One he's going to be starting in the rest of the season now.  While the Rapids struggle to fill other positions they seem to have a nose for center backs.

A Must Win On Colorado Day

Unless we have an early Rocky Mountain Cup match in the future this will be the only time Colorado Day is a must win but it is this year.  Austin FC is in town and they are the second worst team in the West (but better than 4 teams in the East because the bottom of the East is a trash fire).  This needs to be an unquestionable 3 points for the Rapids or we'll be left playing for the Rocky Mountain and Open Cups because the playoffs will be a lost cause.  Kickoff is at 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Rob Holding (red card), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Kimani Stewart-Baynes (lower leg), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No notable surprises there.  Maziz was signed as expected today but is waiting on his paperwork (visa) before he can play.

The defense seems to set itself, maybe Thompson at RB instead of Cannon.  The real question marks are which two wingers get a shot because none of them have been impressive in this run of no firepower.

Prediction: 1-0 Colorado, goal by Rafa.  I think we get the 3 points, but its not as convincing as it should be.  Defensively we're solid but we still fail to make enough chances despite playing one of the worst defenses in the league.