Well, Here We Are

And I'm back.  Had a great time in London, brought back an unusual football shirt (Real Kashmir FC!) and saw a match (Wealdstone for the third time).  I expected to come back and recap Saturday's match against the Fire.  But then the match happened and the less we discuss it the better.  That was bad.

Instead lets see what we need to do going into the final weekend.  Last week starting with the win over Vancouver was big, and the draw in San Jose was a solid result.  I really only expected us to get 2 points in the last 4 games so getting 4 put us in good standing...until Saturday.  The Chicago loss combined with other results has us teetering on the edge of the playoffs.

We're currently in the final playoff spot, coming in second in the three way tie with Seattle and Portland.  Portland wins on total wins and goal differential while Seattle loses with one less win.  That makes one thing simple.

WIN: and we're in

A win in Dallas and we're in the playoffs regardless of what happens elsewhere.  The problem is that Dallas is the #2 team in the West and we're bad on the road.  Oh, and Dallas needs a least a point to lock down the 2 seed.  So the reality is the other scenarios are more likely.  Lets get into them.

If we draw in Dallas that puts us on 44 points and jumps us from 9th to 7th before we consider other results.  But.

The Galaxy play FSL.  If the Galaxy don't lose they'll jump back over us at 45 points.  If FSL wins they'll jump us at 45 points.  Either way one of them is passing us.  So the best we can do is 8th, and if two other teams pass us we're out.  But there are only 2 other teams that could pass us with a draw, Seattle and Portland.  Seattle is hosting LAFC, who is locked into the 6 spot no matter what happens, and Portland is at eliminated Austin.  In other words neither of their opponents have anything to play for.  Despite that, one of them would have to get a result.

DRAW: Portland must lose or Seattle must draw or lose

And now the worst case scenario.  We lose in Dallas.  At that point the Galaxy are guaranteed to finish ahead of us, which only leaves us two spots we could claim.  There are 4 other teams who could claim those sports.  If any more than one of them does, we're out.  So we would need at least three other results to survive if we lose.  That means Minnesota hosting San Jose,, who's trying to catch Dallas, comes into play.

LOSS: At least three of the following four things must happen:

• Seattle loses
• FSL loses
• Minnesota loses or draws
• Portland loses by more goals than Colorado loses by

Also if you're wondering, the only way to avoid the wild-card match is a win, the Galaxy losing or drawing, and Portland winning by less than we win by, drawing, or losing

Right now the odds are favoring Seattle, Portland, FSL, and Minnesota to win, along with Dallas (though they do think us winning is more likely than a draw).

Needless to say things are stacked against us this weekend.  I think its more likely we beat Dallas than we draw or lose and get the other results we need.  Though I think the most likely outcome is that we draw or lose and miss the playoffs.

Stuck In Neutral

This team remains lost as a scoreless draw played out in Portland on Saturday.  In a game they pretty much had to have the Rapids 1 shot on target.  Combined with the Minnesota game midweek the team put up 5 shots on target and scored 2 goals in two games where 1 win was almost a necessity.  Instead they got two draws and are now holding on to the playoffs by their fingernails.  The silver lining is that Portland only getting 1 point all but eliminated them.

However the door has been opened for FSL.  They are 3 points back and if they make up that 3 points (assuming its not via 3 draws) they'll be tied on the first tiebreaker and at worst 1 goal back in GD, the second tiebreaker.  If you're wondering Colorado plays 1st, 3rd, and 4th placed in the West and 4th placed in the East.  FSL plays 2nd, 4th, 8th, and 14th in the West.  I know which schedule I'd rather have.

So far this season Colorado has only beaten 3 teams with more points than them right now, Houston, the Galaxy, and LAFC.  And other than the LAFC win the other two were in the first two months of the season.  In fact the Houston game was the last game we won when we allowed a goal.  We've also drawn 3 teams above us in points, two of them since the break, but the only one on the road was also back in April against LAFC.  Essentially 26 of our 38 points came against teams worse than us, an there's no more of those on the schedule.

As far as Saturday's game goes, it was really a bunch of meh punctuated by some poor officiating.  Colorado should have given up a PK when Navarro send Fernandez flying into the boards, but Portland should have had a yellow card (and some refs would have gone red) when Yapi took an elbow to the head before that.  There was even a scuffle before halftime that only resulted in opposing yellows.  The choice to sit Aaronson with no hint of injury in an important game was certainly noticeable.  I realize it was a 3 game week but at this point of the season it needs to be all hands on deck.

There's a big week coming up with a trip to San Jose sandwiched between home games against Vancouver and Chicago.  That said, I'm not going to be here for it.  I've got a business trip coming up at the end of the week so I'll have no coverage of the Vancouver or San Jose unless I get very bored in my hotel room across the pond.  I might get a preview up for Chicago as I will be home in time to attend that one, at worst we'll have a recap of the full week after Halloween.

Man of the Match: Nico Hansen.  Had a couple of big saves to preserve the shutout which was enough to stand out with all the average play on the field.

Last Stand Time

The situation is simple, a loss tomorrow and Portland (and possibly FSL and/or San Diego) are within 2 points while we're in a death spiral with our last 4 games against teams in the top 4 of their respective conferences.  A win and that might just be enough cushion to claim a wild card spot with an outside chance of hosting the match.  A draw and everyone finishes annoyed (and FSL and San Diego might get within 3).  Kickoff in Oregon is at 8:30 MT.  Hopes may be dashed by 9.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (shoulder), D Reggie Cannon (leg), M Ali Fadal (torso), M Youssef Maziz (leg), F Sayed Abu Farkhi (suspension)

QUESTIONABLE: GK Nico Hansen (hip), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

Atencio and Yapi are on yellow card watch.  None of that is good.  Cannon has been down graded, Hansen picked up an injury, and we already talked about the idiocy that was Farkhi on Wednesday.

I know Georgi scored on Wednesday, but Phillip scored in the 3 before that so I think he gets the nod.  Otherwise this a fairly obvious lineup where you have to have a win.  Obviously if Hansen can go he will, I just assumed he won't be able to.

Prediction: 2-1 loss.  Goal by Aaronson.  I just can't predict anything but a loss on the road at this point.  Especially given our injury situation.  Portland has actually won half its home games and only lost four of them, though the last two were to the awful Auston and Atlanta sides.  A draw would not be a real shock but a win would.

Clean Out The Lockers

For the sixth game in a row the Rapids had a lead.  For the fourth game in a row and fifth time in those six games the Rapids didn't win.  Seven leads thrown away in those five games.  Just a ridiculously mentally weak team.

We have not won a league game where where conceded a goal at any point since April 11, over 6 months ago

There's really not much more to say about things than that.  One thing stood out last night though.

Youssef Maziz - Out with injury, Wells stated he'll be lucky to be back by the end of the season

Morgan Whittaker - Horrible back pass to set up the first Minnesota goal

Sayed Abu Farkhi - Played 8 minutes and got a red for slapping Boxall

Loic Williams - Own goal to tie the game

That's our 4 midseason signings doing everything they can to make sure we don't win this game.  Now I know that's not really fair to Maziz and Williams was more unlucky than anything but just a brutal set of (non) performances from the group that arrived after Padraig Smith stated "We will be bold. We are going to be forceful in what we do here".

Good to see Yapi and Minoungou finally get on the scoreboard but its too little too late.  Its really hard to see who this team can beat if they can't beat one of the bottom 5 teams in the league at home.  The rest of the West is so bad they might be able to hold on to the final playoff spot by their fingernails, but this team will be a one and done in the wild card game.

Man of the Match: Yapi.  Pretty goal, good to see him score.

Do Or Die Time

Well, here we are.  6 games left, one win in the last 6 games, and the easiest opponent left in town tomorrow night.  If we can't get 3 points against Minnesota, the next to last team in the West, at home then we might as well clean out the lockers this week as there's no reason to think any other wins, or a playoff spot, will be coming in the last three weeks.  Kickoff against the Loons is the normal 7:30 tomorrow night, and its going to be cool and wet for the first time in quite a while.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (shoulder), M Ali Fadal (torso), M Youssef Maziz (leg)

QUESTIONABLE: D Reggie Cannon (leg), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder)

Josh Atencio is still on yellow card watch too

Gotta roll out the best XI (or the best we can) tomorrow.  Thompson seems the more likely replacement for Cannon than Rosenberry but either one would probably work.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Whittaker and Aaronson.  Minnesota is bad and its now or never.  The Rapids get the job done but its not convincing.  Pretty typical riding the playoff line finish to the season for us.