Stats Say Good, Eye Test Says Bad

 

Saturday night was a rough watch.  Colorado had pretty much all the play.  64% possession.  Eleven corners to none.  50 touches in the box to 8.  5 big chances to 1.  At no point did it feel like Austin was going to score unless they got lucky on a free kick or got a weird deflection on a ball.

The problem is that it didn't feel like the Rapids were going to score either.  Only one of those "big chances" really felt dangerous, and that was in a scrum in the box in the first few minutes of the game.  Otherwise it was the same going through the motions that we've seen for a few games.  The Rapids did create more chances than they have been, but there was still a dearth of good final passes to set up good shots.

The last minute PK was a gift from Austin, as there was no way we were going to score on our own in this one.  Rafa did a great job burying it, it seems like his PK issues are behind him now that he's stopped the stutter-step.  But it felt more like 2 points stolen than a win we truly deserved, even if the stats said otherwise.

This is now 10 league games in a row without scoring more than one goal, that most in a single season since a 12 game stretch in late spring/early summer 2015.  The fact that we've gotten 6 points in 3 games out of the World Cup break while only scoring 2 goals is a testament to our defense, and the (lack of) quality of our opponents.  Of course our defense is going to take a serious hit this week with the sale of Herrington (more on that later this week when it becomes official).

The Rapids get a week off with the Leagues Cup weekend, and will be back hope playing last-place KC on the 15th.  A must win, and a must win convincingly, sort of game for them.

Man of the Match: Loic Williams.  Stepped in for the suspended Holding and was nice and smooth holding down that left center back spot.  One he's going to be starting in the rest of the season now.  While the Rapids struggle to fill other positions they seem to have a nose for center backs.

A Must Win On Colorado Day

Unless we have an early Rocky Mountain Cup match in the future this will be the only time Colorado Day is a must win but it is this year.  Austin FC is in town and they are the second worst team in the West (but better than 4 teams in the East because the bottom of the East is a trash fire).  This needs to be an unquestionable 3 points for the Rapids or we'll be left playing for the Rocky Mountain and Open Cups because the playoffs will be a lost cause.  Kickoff is at 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Rob Holding (red card), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Kimani Stewart-Baynes (lower leg), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No notable surprises there.  Maziz was signed as expected today but is waiting on his paperwork (visa) before he can play.

The defense seems to set itself, maybe Thompson at RB instead of Cannon.  The real question marks are which two wingers get a shot because none of them have been impressive in this run of no firepower.

Prediction: 1-0 Colorado, goal by Rafa.  I think we get the 3 points, but its not as convincing as it should be.  Defensively we're solid but we still fail to make enough chances despite playing one of the worst defenses in the league.

Enter Youssef Maziz

The Rapids are teasing the announcement of a new addition at 10am tomorrow.  First reported by Tom Bogert and confirmed by Brenden Ploen and Burgundy Wave, this is expected to be midfielder Youssef Maziz.

Maziz is a 28 year old (as of last month) attacking midfielder who's play is mainly as a chance creator, something the team desperately needs.  Born in France he is of Moroccan decent and has dual nationality.  His only international caps are two appearances with the French U-16 team.  He joined the Metz youth academy at 15 and stayed with the club working his way up to the first team in 2017 but spent most of his time on loan in the lower French leagues until he left Metz for Belgian side OH Leuven in 2023.  OHL has been a solid mid-table team in his time there.

Youssef is available on a free transfer as he's now out of contract and is expected to sign a TAM deal.  He'll be available as soon as his visa is processed and given the current government issues with visas we probably shouldn't expect that too quickly.  I would assume he would slot into the starting lineup as soon as he's available, so I'd expect the center trio to be Ojediran, Maziz, and Aaronson.

Obviously Maziz is an unknown to all of us, but the reality of being a Rapids fan is that we're not going to go out and assign a 'name' player.  Far too often that's meant we get a Namli or a Ilic, but occasionally we find a Rafa or a Herrington.  The positive sign with this signing is this isn't a player who doesn't fit the team (at least on paper) or is coming in at a established position.  This is somebody who fills a rea hole on the team, something our summer signings haven't always been able to say.  This doesn't turn us into a contender, but it seems like a move to push us that direction.

Deja Vu

Another game against St. Louis, another Holding red card, another 1-0 loss, another Miguel Navarro man of the match performance.  If you watched the game in May at the Dick you largely saw this game in St, Louis.  It was not good.  The main differences is that the red card this time was fully justified, a bad pass back from Yapi that Holding tried to control instead of clear and it all went sideways.

Rather than spending any more time on the game with not much to talk about we're going to take a look at where we are.  Its the midpoint of the season (17 games) and we're 3 points behind either of the Chris Armas seasons.  Now, as I pointed out in June, the schedule has not bee friendly to us but the last two games have been against weaker opposition and we've been 1-1, with one goal scored and one allowed.  This is not us stepping up our game.

We've now gone 9 games scoring 0 or 1 goals.  That's the longest single season streak since 2017 where Pablo's last game in charge kicked off a 12 game run of 0's or 1's.  (Between 2023 and 2024 we went 10 games, 3 in '23 and 7 in '24, with 0-1 goals).  The last time we put two past the opposing keeper was when Messi was in town.  This team has not come from behind to take the lead in a game this season.

Meanwhile apparently Wells "exchanged words" with the St. Louis coaching staff after the game.  This one confuses me as I can't think of anything StL did during the game that the coaching staff should be that upset about.  This is a pattern developing though where Wells goes off on the refs or the other coaching staff or something when the Rapids struggle.  It makes me start to wonder if that's his response to not having answers which, isn't great.

What we seem to have is a team bereft of offensive ideas that's slowly sinking down the table.  They're compensating for that by being at the top of the fouls and cards list (though also at the top of the fouls suffered) list and the manager is all in on the strategy.  The next two games are at home against the teams and the bottom of the Western conference.  They are both must wins, and they need to be must wins where we're clearly in control and are clearly winning the game.  If that doesn't happen its hard to see how this season goes anywhere.

Man of the Match: Miguel Navarro.  Picked ip an injury in training so didn't start, but was pressed into service after the 12th minute red card.  Shortly after entering he seemed to dislocate his finger and calmly let the training staff pop it back into place, then went out and finished the game with a strong performance.

USOC Semifinal Preview

We're off to the far side of Missouri to get a sneak peak at our U.S. Open Cup semi opponents in September as the Rapids play St. Louis tomorrow night.  StL came into the Dick back in May and stole a 1-0 win on a goal both Holding and Herrington would want back.  The Rapids need to figure out if they can fix their offense, the last time we put a crooked number on the scoreboard it was on the fully working scoreboard at Empower Field.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6:30 MT.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), D Jackson Travis (ankle), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

No change on the injury front, but we get Miguel Navarro and Wayne Fredrick back from suspension.  Fredrick signed a new contract extension today, taking him through the 2029-2030 season with a club option for an additional season.  We'll have to wait until the salary drop in September to know what kind of raise he got.

I'm not sure who will get the start on the wings, but otherwise I feel good about this lineup.  Other than Herrington everyone gets a week off after this, so going back-to-back shouldn't be a problem for anyone.  I think Williams gets rewarded with another start and Herrington cycles in for Holding.  Wells had a lot of good things to say about Kosi Wednesday night so I see him starting again too.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rafa.  I can't predict the Rapids getting more than 1 until they prove they can.  Meanwhile St. Louis improve during the break and I can't see them being shut out at home.  Our defense is strong enough to keep them from running us over, but I don't see 3 points coming.