Midseason Review Part 2

In Part 1 we covered the players and their salaries.  AS a follow-on to that the Rapids announced today that Zack Steffen has had shoulder surgery and will be out 5-6 months while he recovers.  That means best case scenario he could be back for the playoffs but most likely he's done for the season.  Given his contract and that he's in a team option year for the sprint season there's a good chance he's played his last game in burgundy.  We ride with Nico Hansen the rest of the season.  Now in Part 2 we're going to cover Matt Wells and the season as a whole so far.

Wells came in with a very specific idea of how he wanted to play and he's sticking to it, sometimes to a fault.  The players clearly have bought into the style.  That includes playing it out of the back, pressing on defense, and not being afraid to get physical.  There have been times where Wells has felt a little too stubborn about his style, but then there are times (like the Minnesota game) where he shows himself able to adjust his tactics and surprise the other team.

We covered the issues with the lack of discipline in the write-up of the Dallas game.  I have no problem with a team being physical, I remember the #RapidsThugLife days.  But being aggressive and being out of control are tow different things and the Rapids under Wells are teetering on that line.  I've also notice that Wells seems to have a higher opinion of the talent on the Rapids compared to the rest of the league than seems justified.  I like that he has a system and he's teaching the team to work in that system.  There have been coaches in the past who either had no system or their system was 'park the bus and hop'.  But the system has to work with the talent you have, and I'm not sure this one does.

To that end, lets look at the numbers.  So far the Wells' Rapids are playing at 1.07 PPG through the first 15 games.  Over a whole season that would be 25th (out of 31) in Rapids history.  Of course he's a new coach taking over a team that was struggling and trying to change their style of play.  How does his first 15 games compare to other coaches taking over the Rapids after 15 games?

1. Robin Fraser - 2019/2020 - 1.67 PPG*
2. Chris Armas - 2024 - 1.47 PPG
3. Pablo Mastroeni - 2014 - 1.47 PPG
4. Gary Smith - 2009 - 1.4 PPG
5. Matt Wells - 2026 - 1.07 PPG
6. Oscar Pareja - 2012 - 1.07 PPG
7. Fernando Claivjo - 2005 - 0.94 PPG
8. Anthony Hudson - 2019 - 0.6 PPG

* - Fraser is the only one to take over midseason, and then had to deal with the COVID cancellations and the MLS Is Back tournament, so I don't know how helpful this number is

Those are all the permanent coaches hired for the Rapids by KSE, and if you set Fraser aside Wells comes down right in the middle.  But its the middle of a pretty average-to-poor group.

Now there's one more factor in this, and that's the Rapids schedule.  Colorado has played a brutal schedule so far, both in the number of games and the quality of opponents.  They averaged one game every 5 days over the first half(ish) of the season.  Not only that but 9 of the 15 were on the road and one of the 6 home games was a home game in name only.  Add in 3 Open Cup games and that's a lot.

On top of that the quality of opponents has been significant.  11 of the 15 games we've played have been against teams currently in a playoff spot.  We've played 6 of the 9 current Western Conference playoff teams on the road.  We've also made 2 of our 3 Eastern Conference road trips already.  Really we only have 3 tough road trips left.  We have to go to San Jose, Dallas, and the Galaxy.  We do have a trip to the East left, Columbus, but that's no further than Portland.  Every other "tough" game is at home (unless we make the USOC Final, which would be a tough road game).  Colorado has the third easiest schedule left in the league and that's before taking into account the home/away splits.

So, where does that leave us on Wells?  I think its a mixed bag that needs more data.  Namely, how does the 9 games coming out of the break go?  5 of the 9 are at home with the 4 road games all against teams not in a playoff position.  Of the home games only 2 are against teams in a playoff position.  One is LAFC, a tough game no matter what, and the other is the second leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup, which is a must win no matter the quality of FSL.  The other games are against 3 of the 4 worst teams in the West and a home-and-home against San Diego, just in front of us in the standings.

After those 9 games we are one week out from the USOC semifinal and some decisions will have to be made.  If we doubled our point total, getting 16 points in the 9 games then we'll be back on a playoff pace (barely) and we will have to choose how to balance the two competitions.  Anything less than that and its time to write off the season and go all in on the USOC.  If we come out of the break like bats out of hell and pick up 20 points or more we can probably write-off a league match or two to focus on the semifinal.

Success this season hinges on either taking advantage of the easy schedule remaining, or winning the Open Cup.  Ideally we do both.  If we miss the playoffs and we don't make the USOC final its another lost season.  Even making the final and losing while missing the playoffs seems like a disappointment.    The Rapids have done well enough to put themselves in position to have a good season, but can they execute to get there?