Three Core Rapids Head For New Homes

It has been quite a day for the Rapids fanbase.  Three Rapids who have been at the center of this team's growth in recent years have left, for three different reasons.  We're going to go through these in reverse order to immediate impact (and announcement), mainly because its easier for me to deal with that way.

First, Sporting KC announced the signing of free agent Kortne Ford today.  As we're all well aware, Ford signed for the first team out of the Academy in 2017 and looked like a rising star that would be the first real successful homegrown player.  Then a series of knee injuries kept him from making an appearance for the Rapids since 2018.  Each time he got close to healthy further injury knocked him back.  He di finally get back on the field this year for San Antonio and preformed well.  On top of that there was his mother's fight against cancer that the Rapids community followed for many years.  Sadly, as we know, we lost Mamma Ford recently,

Given all that, its not a surprise that Kort would want a fresh start somewhere else, and he is originally from the KC era.  Everyone in the Rapids fan base wishes him the best and hopes for nothing but success for him (outside of head to head games against us, of course).  Kort was the last Rapid on the roster from Pablo's final 2017 team, though of course Drew Moor and Clint Irwin played for and with Pablo for many years.

The second move today is Cole Bassett going on loan to Dutch giants Feyenoord.  This hasn't been officially announced but Cole has left U.S. Nats camp, reportedly to return to Denver to prepare to head to the Netherlands next week, and Dutch papers have gotten quotes from the Feyenoord manager about Bassett's arrival.  So its a done deal, it just hasn't been announced.  This is an 18-month loan with an option to buy.  Bassett only has 12 months left on his contract, so the other part of this news is that he has signed a 3 year extension to his contract, though its unclear if that's 3 years from now, or 3 years from the end of his deal at the end of this season.  Hopefully the official announcement will clarify that.

Feyenoord currently site 3rd in the table, 3 points back of Ajax and 4 back of PSV, so Cole will be right in a fight for the top spot.  Also next month the Rotterdam derby will happen, which could feature Cole Bassett against Sparta Rotterdam's Younes Namli.

This is clearly a good deal for everyone involved.  Bassett has been very clear about his desire to move to Europe, but while there's been a lot of smoke the only confirmed offer we got was the Benfica offer this summer, which wasn't a good move for him.  This allows him a chance to really earn a place on a significant European team, and meanwhile the Rapids get a contract extension that seemed unlikely a while ago.  If it works out they sell him for (reportedly) a number higher than Vines.  If not he comes back home and we have a great asset to play or possibly sell to another team.

Now the big one.  Colorado traded Kellyn Acosta to LAFC for $1.1M in GAM, plus up to $400K more depending on performance, at least $150K of which both sides expect to achieve.  The rest of it requires LAFC to win a trophy by the end of 2023.  So we'll call it $1.25M of GAM for this analysis.

This is obviously a ground-shaking move for the core of the current Rapids.  Acosta was the first significant addition by Padraig Smith when he was given full control of the team, and he's been in the center (literally) of the team since then.  I think all Rapids fans had a moment of WTF? when they heard the news this morning.

Once the initial shock wore off though, the move made more sense.  Colorado entered the day with Jack Price and 3 central midfielders that cost the team a million a piece in different ways (Acosta, salary, Kaye, GAM, Max, transfer fee).  Its very hard to get all 4 of those players on the field at once, not to mention our wingers.  The only way I could see to do it is to play Acosta at left wing with the other 3 in the middle, and that means putting Esteves of Galvan on the bench.  So we had room to move somebody.

An offer of $1.1M guaranteed GAM is the second largest in MLS history.  Those offers don't come around often.  This is because Acosta is probably at the height of his value right now.  Coming off a season where he set a record for U.S. Nats appearances in year for a player with a club contract (he tied the record, but the record was sent when the Nats had a year+ long residency in preparation for the '94 World Cup and those players weren't signed to a club) and having played for the best team in the West, combined with being 26.5 years old, means this was the time to strike if we were going to move him.

Of course, after this news was announced, Kellyn himself got on Twitter to express disappointment in the club.  While he said all the right things in his follow-up, he accused the club of pushing him out and not taking the European offer on the table which is where he wanted to go.  In order to evaluate this claim we're going to have to get down into the nitty gritty of MLS rules.  So the tl;dr of this is that the odds that the Rapids had a European offer that was as good or better than the LAFC offer for the Rapids is very low.  You can skip beyond the bracketed section if you want to skip the MLS roster rule discussion.

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It does require one assumption, namely that at this point in their respective careers Vines is generally more valuable than Acosta. At 26.5 years old Acosta is largely who he is now, while players can improve from this point they usually don't take large jumps in quality. Meanwhile at 22 Vines still has a chance for significant improvement.

So, that assumption in place, lets look at what we know. 

1. Vines was sold for $2M 

2. Because of MLS roster rules, that limit the amount of transfer fee that can be converted to GAM for salary use, from a team-building (not owning) perspective GAM is more valuable than cash once you break $1M (the max cash you can convert to GAM from a sale). 

3. Acosta was traded for $1.1M in GAM that both sides feel is likely to go up to $1.25-$1.3M (per Sam Stejskal's Athletic article and something I've heard) 

So, in order for the Rapids to have pushed Acosta out and ignored a European offer, and for that to somehow been the wrong choice, the offer from Europe would have had to have been better than $1.25M in GAM. if we believe (and I do) that Acosta isn't as valuable as Vines, that means he likely tops out at around $1.75M, if I'm generous. So does it make sense for, in the best case scenario for Acosta, Padraig Smith to give up $250K in GAM to get $750K in cash that can't be used on the roster? At that number yeah, probably. But at anything less than the possible max for Acosta? Probably not. Trading $250K of salary for $500K or less in cash doesn't help build the team, and of course anything under $1.25M in cash is less than the GAM.

So while its possible that the Rapids had a real offer for Acosta that we passed on, and while its possible for that offer to be higher than the GAM, and its possible that its enough higher than the GAM for it to be a good deal for the Rapids, the odds seem very very low. Or I'm significantly undervaluing Acosta.

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In the end moving Acosta frees up significant salary, gains us GAM, and means we don't have to use xAM to pay him down to the max salary level.  In exchange while we lose a notable part of our midfield, its an area where we already have a replacement.  In the end its a logical move, even when at first it seems like its completely out of left field.

Needless to say this is a huge day for the Rapids, and have significantly changed the makeup of the team going into 2022.  With Bassett and Acosta gone our midfield will be a new group working together this year.  We have also put together a nice nest egg of GAM that I would expect to see us use soon to replace some of the missing players, and hopefully find a #9.  I expect the next two weeks will be quite busy.