Three Core Rapids Head For New Homes

It has been quite a day for the Rapids fanbase.  Three Rapids who have been at the center of this team's growth in recent years have left, for three different reasons.  We're going to go through these in reverse order to immediate impact (and announcement), mainly because its easier for me to deal with that way.

First, Sporting KC announced the signing of free agent Kortne Ford today.  As we're all well aware, Ford signed for the first team out of the Academy in 2017 and looked like a rising star that would be the first real successful homegrown player.  Then a series of knee injuries kept him from making an appearance for the Rapids since 2018.  Each time he got close to healthy further injury knocked him back.  He di finally get back on the field this year for San Antonio and preformed well.  On top of that there was his mother's fight against cancer that the Rapids community followed for many years.  Sadly, as we know, we lost Mamma Ford recently,

Given all that, its not a surprise that Kort would want a fresh start somewhere else, and he is originally from the KC era.  Everyone in the Rapids fan base wishes him the best and hopes for nothing but success for him (outside of head to head games against us, of course).  Kort was the last Rapid on the roster from Pablo's final 2017 team, though of course Drew Moor and Clint Irwin played for and with Pablo for many years.

The second move today is Cole Bassett going on loan to Dutch giants Feyenoord.  This hasn't been officially announced but Cole has left U.S. Nats camp, reportedly to return to Denver to prepare to head to the Netherlands next week, and Dutch papers have gotten quotes from the Feyenoord manager about Bassett's arrival.  So its a done deal, it just hasn't been announced.  This is an 18-month loan with an option to buy.  Bassett only has 12 months left on his contract, so the other part of this news is that he has signed a 3 year extension to his contract, though its unclear if that's 3 years from now, or 3 years from the end of his deal at the end of this season.  Hopefully the official announcement will clarify that.

Feyenoord currently site 3rd in the table, 3 points back of Ajax and 4 back of PSV, so Cole will be right in a fight for the top spot.  Also next month the Rotterdam derby will happen, which could feature Cole Bassett against Sparta Rotterdam's Younes Namli.

This is clearly a good deal for everyone involved.  Bassett has been very clear about his desire to move to Europe, but while there's been a lot of smoke the only confirmed offer we got was the Benfica offer this summer, which wasn't a good move for him.  This allows him a chance to really earn a place on a significant European team, and meanwhile the Rapids get a contract extension that seemed unlikely a while ago.  If it works out they sell him for (reportedly) a number higher than Vines.  If not he comes back home and we have a great asset to play or possibly sell to another team.

Now the big one.  Colorado traded Kellyn Acosta to LAFC for $1.1M in GAM, plus up to $400K more depending on performance, at least $150K of which both sides expect to achieve.  The rest of it requires LAFC to win a trophy by the end of 2023.  So we'll call it $1.25M of GAM for this analysis.

This is obviously a ground-shaking move for the core of the current Rapids.  Acosta was the first significant addition by Padraig Smith when he was given full control of the team, and he's been in the center (literally) of the team since then.  I think all Rapids fans had a moment of WTF? when they heard the news this morning.

Once the initial shock wore off though, the move made more sense.  Colorado entered the day with Jack Price and 3 central midfielders that cost the team a million a piece in different ways (Acosta, salary, Kaye, GAM, Max, transfer fee).  Its very hard to get all 4 of those players on the field at once, not to mention our wingers.  The only way I could see to do it is to play Acosta at left wing with the other 3 in the middle, and that means putting Esteves of Galvan on the bench.  So we had room to move somebody.

An offer of $1.1M guaranteed GAM is the second largest in MLS history.  Those offers don't come around often.  This is because Acosta is probably at the height of his value right now.  Coming off a season where he set a record for U.S. Nats appearances in year for a player with a club contract (he tied the record, but the record was sent when the Nats had a year+ long residency in preparation for the '94 World Cup and those players weren't signed to a club) and having played for the best team in the West, combined with being 26.5 years old, means this was the time to strike if we were going to move him.

Of course, after this news was announced, Kellyn himself got on Twitter to express disappointment in the club.  While he said all the right things in his follow-up, he accused the club of pushing him out and not taking the European offer on the table which is where he wanted to go.  In order to evaluate this claim we're going to have to get down into the nitty gritty of MLS rules.  So the tl;dr of this is that the odds that the Rapids had a European offer that was as good or better than the LAFC offer for the Rapids is very low.  You can skip beyond the bracketed section if you want to skip the MLS roster rule discussion.

*******************

It does require one assumption, namely that at this point in their respective careers Vines is generally more valuable than Acosta. At 26.5 years old Acosta is largely who he is now, while players can improve from this point they usually don't take large jumps in quality. Meanwhile at 22 Vines still has a chance for significant improvement.

So, that assumption in place, lets look at what we know. 

1. Vines was sold for $2M 

2. Because of MLS roster rules, that limit the amount of transfer fee that can be converted to GAM for salary use, from a team-building (not owning) perspective GAM is more valuable than cash once you break $1M (the max cash you can convert to GAM from a sale). 

3. Acosta was traded for $1.1M in GAM that both sides feel is likely to go up to $1.25-$1.3M (per Sam Stejskal's Athletic article and something I've heard) 

So, in order for the Rapids to have pushed Acosta out and ignored a European offer, and for that to somehow been the wrong choice, the offer from Europe would have had to have been better than $1.25M in GAM. if we believe (and I do) that Acosta isn't as valuable as Vines, that means he likely tops out at around $1.75M, if I'm generous. So does it make sense for, in the best case scenario for Acosta, Padraig Smith to give up $250K in GAM to get $750K in cash that can't be used on the roster? At that number yeah, probably. But at anything less than the possible max for Acosta? Probably not. Trading $250K of salary for $500K or less in cash doesn't help build the team, and of course anything under $1.25M in cash is less than the GAM.

So while its possible that the Rapids had a real offer for Acosta that we passed on, and while its possible for that offer to be higher than the GAM, and its possible that its enough higher than the GAM for it to be a good deal for the Rapids, the odds seem very very low. Or I'm significantly undervaluing Acosta.

*******************

In the end moving Acosta frees up significant salary, gains us GAM, and means we don't have to use xAM to pay him down to the max salary level.  In exchange while we lose a notable part of our midfield, its an area where we already have a replacement.  In the end its a logical move, even when at first it seems like its completely out of left field.

Needless to say this is a huge day for the Rapids, and have significantly changed the makeup of the team going into 2022.  With Bassett and Acosta gone our midfield will be a new group working together this year.  We have also put together a nice nest egg of GAM that I would expect to see us use soon to replace some of the missing players, and hopefully find a #9.  I expect the next two weeks will be quite busy.

You Get A Callup! And You Get A Callup! And You Get A Callup!

The U.S. announced its Gold Cup roster today and there was a surprise leader (tied) for the team with the most callups, the Colorado Rapids.  Along with Atlanta both teams had 3 people on the roster.  Jonathan Lewis, Kellyn Acosta, and Sam Vines will all be wearing the red, white, and blue in July.  They are expected to depart after the Independence Day game on Sunday.  Apparently because he was part of the Nations League squad the Galaxy arranged with the Nats to keep Sebastian Lletget through the midweek game on Wednesday, I'm crossing my fingers that the Rapids get the same consideration for Kellyn Acosta's time on the Nations League squad.

This is great news for the trio of players, and it reflects well on the Rapids.  But its going to make for a rough month for the club.  Acosta doesn't have a great backup in midfield, and he's the primary backup for Sam Vines.  So we're going to play 4-5 games without the trio, depending on how far the U.S. gets (I'm assuming they at least get out of the group stage).  In response to this the team has recalled Jeremy Kelly from his loan to Phoenix today, which will give us a bit more depth at outside back.

If I had to guess I bet we see some combination of Kelly, Beitashour (if he can get healthy) and maybe even a recalled Seb Anderson filling in for Vines.  We even saw Galvan play there for a few minutes against Cinci.  For Acosta (and remember, we're already missing Namli) its likely Bassett drops back more and we see Shinyashiki or Benezet playing above Bassett and Warner.  If we want to be more defensive we leave Bassett forward and see Warner or Larraz behind him.  We'll miss Lewis' energy off the bench but we do have some cover there, the biggest beneficiary will likely be Galvan.

If there's any good news, its that those 4-5 games aren't a murder's row of opponents.  Minnesota at home, where there's a chance we'll still have Acosta, SJ and Dallas at home, both teams look pretty bad, and then FSL and Austin on the road.  I hate going to Sandy without this trio, that makes that game even harder despite FSL looking awful.  Austin should be a game we can get a result in, but I said that when they came here for the home opener.  Then a week after the Gold Cup final, when everyone should be back and rested, we get SKC at home.

Rapids Win First Two Scrimmages, Send Players To National Teams

Yesterday the Rapids played two 45 minute scrimmages and won both 2-0.  The first was against Portland where they used the following lineup:

Rodriguez

Rosenberry - Abubakar - Wilson - Beitashour

Price - Acosta

Namli - Shinyashiki - Benezet

Barrios

For the first goal Danny Wilson found a streaking Michael Barrios.  The second was a great team goal involving Wilson, Namli, Benezet, and Shinyashiki before Acosta got the goal.

One note a number of players were out due to the Olympic camp or injury, including both Yarbrough and Irwin.  For the second match the Rapids played local USL side Phoenix rising with the following 11:

Rawls

Anderson - Ford - Moor - Kelly

Warner - Larraz

Hundley - Mezquida - Yapi

Toure

The goals in this one came from a steal and score by Larraz and a combo goal from Anderson, Yapi, and Hundley who got the score.  Midway through Edwards subbed in for Ford, Serna came in for Anderson, and Mayaka came in for Larraz.

Besides the positive results I think the real important thing from these games is that Kortne Ford was back playing in actual game (scrimmage) action.  That's been a long time coming.

Also over the last few days multiple Rapids have been named to National Teams.  Sam Vines and Jonathan Lewis are part of the Olympic Qualifying roster that kicks off the tournament against Costa Rica at 3:30 tomorrow.  Kellyn Acosta has been named to the upcoming full National Team squad for their pair of friendlies in the next couple of weeks.  Auston Trusty and Cole Bassett were cut from the Olympic squad and will be joining the team in Arizona once they pass through COVID protocols.

Acosta, Rosenberry, and Rubio Signed To Long-Term Deals

So I had two of the three right in my prediction, but it was Rubio instead of Ford that got the contract extension.  Big news to tie up three of our big young players to long-term deals.  The exact details:

Kellyn Acosta - 2019-2021 guaranteed, 2022 and 2023 on team option deals
Keegan Rosenberry - 2019-2022 guaranteed
Diego Rubio - 2019-2022 guaranteed

Prior to these signings 2020 was a team option year for Acosta, Rosenberry was out of contract at the end of 2019, and Rubio was on a team option year in 2019 (with an unknown status for 2020).

Some Rapids fans are already questioning why we would sign two players who have yet to play a competitive game in burgundy and blue to long-term deals.  Beyond the concerns over their contract status, where at least one of them if not both could walk away for nothing at the end of the season, these are two young players with great interest within the league and (in Rosenberry's case) interest from the National Team.  Worst case scenario these guys don't fit in and we can pretty easily flip them to another MLS team.  More likely though these three are core members of the Rapids for the next 3 seasons with possibilities to sell them down the line.

Great long-term planning from the Front Office tonight.

Busy News Day In Commerce City

Ok, two big pieces of news out of the Rapids today.  We'll start with the bigger (IMO) of the two announcements.

• Kellyn Acosta signs a new deal at $800K/season, with team options through 2023

This is a big move for the club.  After getting multiple offers for him this offseason they rewarded Acosta with a major salary bump and locked him up long-term.  Also, if they sell him after next season, they won't have to split the fee with Dallas anymore.  Win-win all the way around here.

• Rapids away jersey, the Black Diamond kit, was released

Its a solid kit that is a step up from the flag kits in my opinion, but I never liked the flag kits.  If I had the budget this year I'd consider picking one up, but my soccer budget is going to an upcoming trip to London for a Blackburn game.  It would have been more impressive if three quarters of the league wasn't getting new white kits this season, half of them with the same template as this.  Adidas failed MLS on this cycle of kits.  I did get a chuckle out of the Black Diamond PR push for a kit that has neither black or diamonds on it.

Catching up on some other news from the weekend:

• Sam Raben loaned to the Switchbacks

No surprise here, he went to the Springs to train with the team while the rest of the Rapids went to Colorado.  There's an interesting a note in the press release which says that the team can recall him at any time subject to roster limitations.  I don't remember that caveat in prior years, this might be an indicator that the rule about on-loan players not counting against the roster rules only if there's no recall option has changed.  Now it looks like they no longer count against the roster rules at any time when they're on-loan, but they can't come back if they don't have a valid roster spot to move into.

• Colorado B beats Las Vegas B 3-0, Rapids A draw 2-2 with Vegas A.

I'm spending less time on these games than usual because a number of small injuries caused a number of different roster alignments (Wynne at CB for example) so I'm not sure what can be drawn from these games.

News and Notes 1/22/19

Ok, a few news and notes from today.

Starting with the big one.  Tim Howard announced he's retiring at the end of 2019 today.  I don't think anyone was surprised by the news, but it calls the end to a great career.  From the Metrostars to Everton to the 'Secretary of Defense' to the Colorado Rapids he's been the top keeper everywhere he plays.  While age, and that injury at the end of 2016, have taken their toll his leadership on and off the field has been key.  Enjoy one last season with arguably the best keeper in American history (I'd argue Friedel was better ;) ).

Secondly if you didn't see my revision to yesterday's post, I was wrong about the international statuses.  We only have 6 slots, not 7, and Boateng got his green card last season.  So we currently have 7 internationals and that assumes Shinyashiki does have his green card.  So we still need to make a move.

On the schedule front the Rapids announced that the Wednesday July 17th home game against Minnesota will now be played on Saturday June 8th.  This will push the game into the gold Cup window so some players may be missing, but I'm all for that trade off to get another Saturday night game and remove a weeknight game.

Lastly the final rosters for the upcoming U.S. friendlies were announced and Keegan Rosenberry will be part of them.  Kellyn Acosta did not make the cut and will leave u.S. camp in California to join up with the Rapids in Florida.

Acosta Trade Is Better Than First Reports

So the Acosta trade was made official today, as expected, and it was actually better than first thought.  Let's list it all out first:

Colorado gets:

• M Kellyn Acosta, who's under contract through 2018 with team held options for 2019 and 2020
• Dallas' first round 2019 pick
• Dallas' second round 2019 pick, conditionally
• 50% of any sale of Badji if sold before the end of the summer 2020 transfer window

Dallas gets:

• F Dominique Badji
• International slot through the end of 2019
• Colorado's first round 2019 pick
• 50% of any sale of Acosta if sold before end of the summer 2020 transfer window
• 33% of any sale of Acosta if sold after the summer 2020 transfer window

The condition on Dallas' second round 2019 pick is based on how far down we drop going from our first round pick's to Dallas'.  If its a small drop they keep the pick, if its a large drop we get it ( no info on where the break point is was released).

To me the real key differences in what was reported last night was the fact that Acosta's deal goes through 2020, along with getting picks back and part of any sale of Badji in the near future.  Odds our those latter opportunities don't pay out much but it allows us to hedge our bets a bit.

In then end this is a medium-risk/high-reward trade for the Rapids.  Best case scenario is that Acosta finds his old form, elevates the team at least through 2019, and then we either sell him for a large transfer fee (as he's been clear he wants to go to Europe) or he decides he likes it here and re-signs.  Both outcomes are wins for the Rapids.  Worst case, he doesn't find his old form, he's an average MLS midfielder, and we get him on a lesser deal or we trade him away again.  Not great but the real loss in the move would be Badji, who has largely plateaued here anyway.  And if he suddenly gets better and is bought we get half of that.

Acosta flew in early this morning, was at training today, and may play against Boca Juniors tomorrow.  Hopefully we see him start on the 4th against LA (starting on Saturday in DC might be asking too much).

Rapids To Announce Significant Trade At Noon Tomorrow

The Rapids have announced a press conference tomorrow at noon, and its presumably to announce the trade that broke tonight (and that I've been hearing about for about a week an a half).  Assuming reported details are correct here's the swap:

Colorado gets: M Kellyn Acosta
Dallas gets: F Dominique Badji, an international spot through 2019, our first round pick in 2019, and part of any transfer fee if Acosta is sold

Acosta is a 22 year old homegrown player who has 116 appearances for Dallas and 17 caps for the U. S. National Team.  He's fallen out of favor in Dallas due to injury and a disagreement with Oscar Pareja over his best position.  He wanted to make the jump to Europe but Dallas never received a good enough offer for him.

This deal is a lot to pay but Acosta is a great addition to this team. This is an all-in move though. If the Rapids juju gets him and he fizzles out its going to be overpaying and another massive mistake. If he keeps playing like he has at the MLS and international level though, he's somebody you build the midfield around. Overall I like the move, but its not a total slam dunk.

This is clearly a 2019 and future move. I don't believe we have a striker lined up to replace Badji right now but I don't think we care. 2018 is a write-off at this point and we'll have to muddle through with Barnes, Boli, McBean, and Gashi.  We need to sign the right striker for 2019 and beyond, not worry about the rest of 2018 and make an emergency move.

One concern is that Transfermarkt has Acosta's contract expiring at the end of the season (and he signed a new contract at the end of 2015, so a 3-year deal would be about right). So this move better include signing a new contract.  Paying this much for a rent-a-player that jets for Europe at the end of the season would be a disaster.

I'll update tomorrow if the deal is any different than what's been reported tonight.