Rapids Clinch CCL, Fall Behind In Shield Race

Full recap tomorrow but here's where today's results put us.

With NYCFC's loss we are guaranteed a top 3 overall finish and with it, a spot in the 2017-18 CONCACAF Champions League.  For the current edition the draw was held on May 30th and the first games were in the first week of August.  I would assume similar scheduling next year for the 2017-18 edition.

We have not yet clinched hosting MLS Cup if we make it.  If RBNY beat Philly and we lose to Houston, then end up facing RBNY in MLS Cup we would play at Red Bull Arena.  Any other combination of results in those two games next week or any other opponent should we make it to MLS Cup and it would be played at DSG Park.

We have lost control of our destiny in the Supporters Shield race.  With Dallas' win and our loss Dallas now has a 2 point lead in the race.  In order to win it we have to beat Houston next week and LA has to beat Dallas.  The problem with that later requirement is LA clinched the #3 seed in the West this week.  The only thing they have to play for is a chance as a CCL spot by finishing ahead of NYCFC and hoping the MLS Cup winner (if not them) is one of the 3 teams already qualified or a Canadian team.  Long odds.  More likely they realize they host a wild-card game 3 days later and they rest as much as they can against Dallas to prepare for that winner-take-all match.  Dallas does go to Guatemala before the LA game and stranger things have happened but right now Dallas is now the heavy favorite to win.

Into The Storm

Sink the Timbers!

Next to last game of the season and all to play for.  A win tomorrow afternoon combined with a Dallas loss at the same time and the Shield is ours.  Odds are very good of winning the Shield as long as we match Dallas' result tomorrow, what with a last-placed Houston team coming to Commerce City next week.  If Dallas' result is better than ours tomorrow though it gets very difficult.  Dallas will likely go to LA (via Guatemala) and play a Galaxy team that is locked int to a 3/4 finish and may want to rest for their mid-week wild-card game so expecting them to get a result against Dallas to help us is a big ask.  So tomorrow is really the key day in this Shield battle.  Coverage starts at 3:15 on ESPN tomorrow, with actual kickoff expected around 3:25 or so.

Player Availability:

OUT: D Bobby Burling (toe); M Dillon Serna (season ending ACL tear); M Jermaine Jones (quad)

QUESTIONABLE: M Marlon Hairston (leg)

ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: D Axel Sjoberg (1 game until good behavior reduction); D Marc Burch; F Dominique Badji

I've talked about the inaccuracy of the injury report before and I question this one considering Burling was in the 18 on Thursday night.  All I can figure is that the Rapids have decided its not worth him making the trip to Portland with their turf field (wet turf tomorrow) coming off an injury so they just ruled him out.  The Rapids official preview lists Hairston, Jones, and Serna as out and the same 3 Timbers as Questionable or worse as the official injury report does.

Starting XI Prediction:

There's been some consternation among Rapids fans over Pablo's comments earlier this week that he would rotate players for this game.  With the Shield so close they've also talked this week about wanting to win it.  Those two things don't go together.  My prediction is that we will see some rotation.  Cronin is back from suspension and will obviously start.  Doyle is just back from injury, went 90 minutes on Thursday night, and this game will be on wet turf.  Odds are he won't start.  Le Toux had a heavy run on Thursday and is one of our older players, so I could see him getting a rest.  Maybe we make a change on the back line letting either Miller or Watts sit and Williams play but maybe not.  Beyond that though, I can't image any major changes.  Pablo won't throw away a chance at the Shield by starting Castillo and Calvert.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Badji.  Portland has scored in every home game this season and if they score in this one they'll be only the 2nd MLS team to not be shutout at home in a season.  With the wet turf and tired legs I'm going to assume they get one.  The Rapids have seemed to have a fire over the last couple of games that makes me think they won't go quietly though, and we steal a point and hope for some help from Seattle.

If there was ever a game for Tim Howard to stand on his head and get us a win though, this is it.  If we see the Secretary of Defense back there looking like the game where he earned that title a win might be possible.

One Down, Two To Go

Colorado got the first of the three wins they need to claim the Shield last night but it wasn't without controversy.  A pair of poor PK calls (one for each side) made for an interesting second half before the Rapids got their 11th home win of the season and went back to the top of the table.  A table that first time in months has an eual number of games played for every team.

General Impressions:

• Outside of Doyle's goal (more on that below) the first half was largely ugly forgettable soccer.
• That said, Doyle's diving header, from a purely aesthetic point of view, was one of the best goals in Rapids history.  It wasn't 'Celo's bike but outside of that there are only a few other goals I can remember that looked as good.  (Cooke's over the back pass to himself for the assist for example).  A almost fully horizontal Doyle makes perfect contact with the ball and puts it in the upper corner.  Gorgeous.
• The celebration knee slide needs work though. :D
• The Rapids came out to absorb pressue to start the 2nd half and it cost them.  The other option would have been to try to catch them on the counter and end the game there, might have been a better choice.
• That PK call on Miller was a joke.  If anything the foul was Wondo on Miller, not the other way around.  Either way it was so light that given what else the ref let go I don't know what he was thinking calling it.
• That did wake the team up though, from that point on the Rapids outplayed San Jose and wanted it more.
• The Rapids PK call was also bad, just not as bad as the one SJ got.  I think when you look up the definition of "makeup call" now you'll see that PK call.
• Badji and Calvert were both unlucky to have balls cleared off the line.  Wynne's headed clearance on Calvert's shot was particularly impressive.
• Using Doyle as the central attacking midfielder was a surprising move but one that paid off.  We might want to consider that more going forward if Jones continues to be unavailable.
• Badji has quietly turned  in a solid second half of the season.  He's still not my first choice to be starting up top when everyone is healthy but he's rounded into a solid utility option.
• Le Toux was the Energizer bunny out there, hopefully he has something left for Portland on Sunday.
• A lot of the offense went through Burch last night.  He deserves a no as a unsung hero this season, especially for somebody I didn't expect to be a regular starter back in March.
• 4 games ago no Rapid had scored multiple goals in a game this season.  Since then Gashi, Badji, and now Doyle have all done it.
• Doyle just tied Badji for second in the team golden boot race with 6 goals.  Gashi still has the lead at 8.
• With one more point or one point dropped by either NY team the Rapids will clinch a spot in the 2017-18 CONCACAF Champions League.  With that point or a point dropped by both NY teams they'll clinch hosting of MLS Cup if we make it to the final.
• The Rapids can win the Supporters Shield with a win in Portland on Sunday and a win by Seattle in Dallas (games are played simultaneously).  Any other set of results and the Shield will come down to the final day next Sunday.
• With Houston in town next week you have to like our odds to win that game so really what the Rapids need to do Sunday to tip the odds in their favor is to at least match whatever Dallas does against Seattle.

Man of the Match: Kevin Doyle.  We'll be seeing the first goal in highlight reels for years.

Death Or Glory

It was either this or Career Opportunities

So here we are.  3 games in 11 days to win the Supporters Shield.  First up, the Earthquakes tomorrow night.  San Jose is one loss (or a couple of wins from other teams) from playoff elimination so they have a lot on the line as well though they're chances are really slim even with a win.  Kickoff tomorrow night is 7pm at DSG.  The tailgate will start at 4, or as soon as people can get there from work.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Dillon Serna (season ending ACL tear); M Jermaine Jones (quad)

QUESTIONABLE: D Bobby Burling (toe); D Sean St. Ledger (knee)

SUSPENDED: M Sam Cronin (yellow card accumulation)

ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: D Axel Sjoberg (2 games until good behavior reduction); D Marc Burch; F Dominique Badji

San Jose has four players missing to injury.  The discipline report hasn't been updated since last week so I don't know their card situation.  Obviously missing Cronin is a hit though I'd rather him sit out this game then Sunday in Portland (Sjoberg, Burch, Badji, I'm talking to you).

Starting XI Prediction:

Its really a question as to what lineup Pablo will roll out.  With a game 3 days later and a game 5 days ago there's some balancing to be done.  My guess is that he'll go for the "easier" points at home tomorrow night and then roll the dice  in Portland on Sunday but there are arguments to be made to try to rest players tomorrow night.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Gashi.  SJ has the worst offense but the second best defense in the league and we haven't beaten them in 14 games.  I think Gashi finally gets a home goal and we get the win but it won't be pretty.  But heck, if Oregon can lose by 49 after a 12 game UW losing streak, maybe we win 6-0 tomorrow night?

Vacation Recap

After some consideration I've decided not to endorse this park...

For the last week and a half I've been in Florida doing the theme park circuit (including Universal's Islands of Adventure, above) and visiting my father-in-law (again, above, on the right).  Thus the prolonged absence of any posts here.  I've tried posting from an iPad and its a bit of a pain in the ass.  So let's do a quick recap of the two games I missed.

The first half of Rapids-Timbers was physical but bad:

LeToux scores early in the second:

Rapids enact their patented "hold on to a 1 goal lead for dear life" strategy:

Rapids win!

Man of the Match: LeToux

Badji scores early against Houston:

Rapids give it back before half:

Badji scores the same goal again after half off another assist from Powers:

Gashi gives the Rapids the mythical 2 goal lead:

Houston scores, giving us a 1 goal lead to hold on to for the final minutes:

Rapids win!

Man of the Match: Dominque Badji

Oh and at the same time, this happened

With that win the Rapids clinch a top 2 finish for the first time in their history, set a new record for total points in a season (54 and counting), and are guaranteed their best pts/game in a season.

If they win their 3 remaining games they'll win the Supporters Shield (they're 2 back of Dallas with a game in hand but lose the tiebreakers).  A win and a draw in the final 3 will guarantee a CONCACAF Champions League spot next year and hosting MLS Cup if we make it.