Colorado Rolls To A Much Needed Win

Well that's what the doctor ordered for the Rapids.  A relatively easy 3 goal win using our backups sets us up well for our final 8 game run to the playoffs.  Austin had one really good look (which we'll get into later), otherwise our defense kept them quiet and our offense finally found its shooing boots (with some help from Austin's defense).  With the win the Rapids go to 48 points, within 10 points of their all-time record.

Random Observations:

• Lets talk about that Austin attack that somehow didn't result in discipline of some sort.  Abubakar got beat and reached out to throw the Austin striker off his shot.  Live I thought for sure it should be a PK and card.  Watching the replay I'm pretty sure it should have been a foul just outside the box and a card.  I think the ref got that wrong.  Its probably a red card for Denial of an Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity, but you could make the case that Trusty was close enough to cover.  That, along with it being just outside the box (probably) is why VAR didn't get involved, because the no-PK call was correct and the lack of a red was not a clear and obvious mistake.  But it was a missed call without a doubt.
• The Rapids took that gift and ran with it.  Lewis got on the board with the last kick of the half, but I don't know how that didn't stay an own goal on Austin.  Maybe on replay you can make the case that Lewis' header was going in but I think its a stretch.
• Then right after half Austin's keeper set up Mezquida nicely with a pass right too him while he was outside his goal area.  Easy shot and score for Nico.
• Finally the Rapids got a goal without Austin's help, with Trusty heading in a Price corner kick.
• The only real negative from this match was injuries.  Both Yarbrough and Esteves went down in the second half.  Yarbrough got back up after treatment and finished the game, and we could have subbed him out at 3-0 up if we were really concerned about him.  Esteves went down in stoppage time and hobbled through the last couple of minutes, we'll have to see how he is.
• Fraser rolled the dice a bit on this one, putting out a B lineup.  He was betting our B squad could beat Austin and/or our rested A squad could beat Seattle in Seattle on Sunday.  As long as he got one of those bets right he was fine, and he did.  If he gets both right he's a genius.  But had he missed on both then he'd have some questions to answer.
• Right now FSL is in 5th and is on pace for 49 points.  So one more win in our final 8 should pretty much clinch a home playoff game.  Portland is in 4th, on pace for 54.  So we need at least tat least wo wins to feel good about finishing top 3.  (Especially if one of them is against Portland).  Its likely the top 3 positions are going to come down to the final games.
• As mentioned, next up is Seattle in Seattle, a tough place for us to place historically.

Man of the Match:  Jack Price.  2 assists, including his team record 11th game winner of the season.  He's already only the third Rapid to have multiple seasons with 10+ assists (Paz, Cooke).  He's the engine for this team right now.

Rapids Need 3 Tomorrow Night

 

Austin is back in town for another game against a Texas team this season.  If you remember (And I understand if you don't) Austin was our opponent in our home opener this year and it didn't go well.  Time to get those 3 points back in what, at least on paper, is our easiest game remaining this season.  After this it gets harder for the last 8 games.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm.

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, M Collen Warner, F Diego Rubio

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION:  D Auston Trusty, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan

There are no reports of any injuries, so everyone should be available, but we know how that's gone this season.

That's the 11 I expect, the formation is fungible.  I don't think we can afford to rest people for Sunday in Seattle with our recent results.  We need to get the 3 at home and worry about Sunday on Sunday.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Barrios.  This should be a bigger win than that, but our struggles in front of goal leave me hesitant to predict anything more than the bare minimum.  The Rapids control the game and get the 3 points, but its not the breakout game we're hoping for.  I expect KC and Seattle to win tomorrow as well so the standings won't change.

Tie-ing Up Loose Ends

Sorry I went dark after the Timbers match.  We left later that week on a road trip we got back from yesterday.  I did watch the Timbers game and the second half of the Vancouver game.  I didn't see the Toronto game at all, but by all reports I didn't miss anything.

While I didn't hate the LA game ending in a draw the last 3 results are all unacceptable.  Going to Portland and getting a draw sounds good, but there's no way we should have given that lead up twice.  And not being able to break down the Canadian duo at home is concerning.

The book is out on how to play the Rapids, especially in Commerce City.  Park the bus, conserve energy at altitude, and hope to steal a goal.  If not you're still getting out with a point.  Colorado hasn't shown an ability to break down a defensive shell like that and until we do, teams will keep using it.

This is where not having a sure-fire 10-15 goal striker hurts us.  We have plenty of guys who can set up opportunities, but few with the killer instinct to finish them.  If you look at our eXpected Goals over the last few games you see the Rapids with a high number of low percentage shots that add up to an xG of 1-2 goals a game, but very few good shots that are saved.  The few really good shots we've gotten we've mostly scored, but we can't find the guy to put away a lower percentage chance.

The good news is that the teams around us have largely stumbled as well.  We're 1 point behind KC for 2nd with a game in hand, and 3 points behind Seattle for first with 2 head-to-head matchups left.  The Timbers have moved into 4th but are still 5 points behind us and we have a game in hand and the Galaxy are 7 points back in 5th (the first playoff spot without a guaranteed home match) and we have a game in hand over them as well.  Things are still looking good for locking up a home playoff match, but our schedule gets a lot harder from here on out, we missed a good chance to solidify our spot in the top 2.

I'll be back to normal coverage now, with a game preview of Wednesday night's home match against Austin tomorrow.

Axe The Timbers

The Rapids head out to the great Pacific Northwest to face Portland tomorrow night.  The Timbers are sitting in 5th place, the first playoff spot without a guaranteed home match, so a win by the Rapids could go a long way towards securing a home playoff game for Colorado (depending on other results the Rapids could have over a 0.5 PPG lead for a slot with a home playoff game with a win).  Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm and TV is what it is.

Injury Report:

QUESTIONABLE: D Lalas Abubakar, D Jeremy Kelly, D Auston Trusty, M Younes Namli, F Diego Rubio

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: F Diego Rubio, M Collen Warner

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Danny Wilson

There hasn't been an injury update since the game on Saturday, so I put everyone who was on the report on Saturday into the Questionable category.  Kelly was out on Friday's report but made the 18, Rubio wasn't listed on Friday but was Out on Saturday, Trusty was Questionable and started, while Abubakar and Namli were Questionable and didn't make the 18.  Rubio might be back and I wouldn't be shocked either way with Abubakar given how concussions go.  I doubt we see Namli get his first appearance on the turf in Portland given he's recovering from angle surgery.

Excuse the formation, the site doesn't have one that reflects what the Rapids now play

Its always tough to guess how much squad rotation we'll get in a 3 game week, especially without an updated injury report.  I'm assuming Abubakar still won't be ready, but Rubio will.  And as mentioned earlier, we won't risk Namli's ankle on the turf (not that he would likely start anyway).  I just can't see Acosta starting, I'd be quite happy if he didn't even make the trip.  We've got to get him some rest.  This is my best guess, but I expect to be wrong.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Rubio.  Portland has one of the worst defenses in the league, but they've won their last 3 games by shutout.  The first against Seattle, impressively, but the other two against Vancouver and Houston who don't have great offenses.  I don't think they can keep the shoutout run going, meanwhile I'm liking our chances at bouncing back from a disappointing draw on Saturday.

As Expected

 

Quoting from my game preview:

1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  The Galaxy have a slightly better offense than us, but a lousy defense.  Unfortunately I don't think we'll be able to take as much advantage of that as we would like as I expect us to play more defensively to compensate for the loss of Price, Trusty, and Abubakar.  its getting harder and harder every game to pick against the Rapids with how their playing, but f there's a game that sets us back, tomorrow is likely it given the weather and absences.

On Saturday the Rapids took the lead midway through the second half on a goal from Barrios, and then gave it back late.  Pretty much exactly what I expected to happen.  It feels like 2 points lost, because in a way it was, but going into the game I felt a draw would be a solid result given that we had missing/not fully rested players, the heat, and the fact that we had to plan for a 3-game week.  So while it is disappointing its not horrible.

Random Thoughts:

• Lets give it up for Kellyn Acosta.  I didn't expect him to start, much less play 90 minutes in that heat.  That made for 270 minutes in 6 days in 3 cities, including a trip to Honduras and back.  I'd say there's no way he plays in Portland on Wednesday, but I didn't think he'd play much on Saturday.
• It was particularly shocking to see Kaye being the international that got subbed off.  Not that I disagreed with it, I was just sure it would be Acosta.
• Shinyashiki's assist on the goal was absolutely perfect.  He looks up, sees Barrios making the run, holds back for just a sec, and then plays a beautiful cross exactly where it needed to be.  You couldn't have placed it better if you picked up the ball, walked over to Barrios, and held it in place.
• Yarbrough has the best of times, worst of times game.  He stone walled LA on a break away in the first half that could be a save of the week.  Then on the LA goal he misplayed it and it went through his hands.  While the opportunity came from a great outlet pass from LA's half, the defense played it well and forced the attacker to take a long shot from the side of the box that Will had covered.  He just misread it.
• The stats for the game showed two pretty equal teams.  While it felt like the Rapids had the majority of the play (and they did, about 10% more of the possession and twice as many shots) the actual dangerous chances were fairly even.
• The moment of silence for the 9/11 remembrance was the quietest I've ever heard the stadium during a moment of silence.
• With the draw Robin Fraser is guaranteed to finish the season with the highest career PPG of any Rapids head coach.
• Still need 2 points to drive the Bodmer Line to 0.  Right now its at 0.167 pts/game.
• With the other results we're back in 3rd on points, but 2nd on PPG.  But with Seattle beating Minnesota and us holding LA to 1 point there's a clear gap between the top 4 and the rest of the West, and a pretty good gap opening between the Galaxy and the top 3.  Not having a home playoff game at this point would be a significant disappointment, and realistically we should be looking at 3rd place as merely acceptable.
• Next up a trip to Portland on Wednesday night.  The Timbers defense is on a 4 game shutout streak so it could be a low scoring game.  Getting any points helps reinforce that gap between the Galaxy in 4th and Portland in 5th.

Man of the Match:  Andre Shinyashiki.  Just for that assist.