Rapids Dig Hole, Then Climb Out

Colorado figured going to Minnesota without Acosta and Kaye wasn't hard enough, so they wasted the first 60 minutes of the game, gave up a goal, and went down a man.  Then they decided to start playing.  30 minutes later (plus stoppage) they left town 3-1 winners with United wondering what the hell just happened.  This was not how it was supposed to happen but 3 points is 3 points.

Random Musings:

• Once again we saw the 5 man back line, and once again we saw the opposition find the seam between the right wing back and the right central defender.  This is an obvious flaw we haven't managed to fix.
• Also once again we start with a 5-man back line, struggle, them make subs to go to a 4-man back line and look a lot better.
• Those two things should indicate an obvious solution.  Start with a 4-man back line.  I understand Fraser is trying to get his best players on the field and he's trying to rotate players due to the brutal end of season stretch (more on that below) but the time for playing around is over.  We've got 6 games left before the playoffs.  find your starting XI, find your formation (4-man back line) and play that to get ready.
• Wilson's red card might force the issue in Sandy next week.  It  was a clear DOGSO foul so no chance it will (or should be) overturned.  Play Rosenberry-Abubakar-Trusty-Esteves in the back and go win the game.
• Once Wilson was sent off I give credit to Fraser.  A lot of coaches would have tried to turtle in and contain the damage.  Fraser put 3 attacking players on and said "go find some points", and we did.  It also indicates that maybe we should have started some of those players (namely Barrios).
• There were a lot of questions from fans about why the Minnesota keeper wasn't sent off for his PK foul on Barrios.  There are actually two reasons.
• One, a couple of years ago the IFAB & FIFA changed the rule about a Denial of an Obvious goal Scoring Opportunity (DOGSO) in the box.  In a case when there was a legitimate play on the ball leading to the DOGSO foul in the box the penalty is a PK and a yellow card.  The thought being that the Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity was restored in the form a PK.  This does not apply if there was no play on the ball (so you can't strike a player, shove them, etc. and not get a red) or if a handball stops a goal.  Those are still red cards and PKs.
• Even if the red card penalty still existed I'm not sure this qualified as DOGSO.  One of the pieces that goes in to judging if it was a a DOGSO is the direction of play.  The Minnesota keeper did play the ball and pushed it away from the goal before tripping Barrios.  Had ne not tripped him Barrios would have had to backtrack corral the ball, turn and shoot.  That's no longer an "obvious" goal scoring opportunity.  Which is probably why the keeper didn't get a yellow card for the foul.
• The second goal killed Minnesota.  The fight pretty much went out of them at that point (though they did have a couple of good looks).  But you could see they couldn't believe what happened.
• The third goal was just the icing on the cake.  In case your wondering:
• The last time the Rapids went down a man (and a goal) was in Snow Claisco III against Portland to open the 2019 season.  Sjoberg was correctly sent off for blocking a shot with his hand and the Rapids were down 1-0 after the PK.  They came back to draw that game 3-3.
• The Rapids have never scored 3 goals while playing at a man disadvantage.  They did score 3 goals against the Fire in the 4th of July game in 2002, and they were down a goal then too.  But between the Rapids going down a man and Chris Carrieri getting a hat-trick the Fire had Ante Razov sent off so the 3 goals were scored 10 v 10.
• With this win Colorado is in very good shape to have a home playoff game.  Right now 5th placed FSL and the Galaxy are on pace to finish with 47-48 points.  To catch and pass the Rapids at 51 would take one of those teams really stepping up their pace, and Portland doing the same.  Unlikely despite the head-to-head matches remaining against FSL and Portland.
• With a win on Saturday in Sandy the Rapids clinch a playoff spot.
• Colorado needs 8 more points in the final 6 games to set a new team record for points and PPG in a season.
• Those 6 games aren't going to be easy.  After this week off they play @Sandy in the Rocky Mountain Cup on Saturday, home against Portland the following Wednesday, home against Seattle the Saturday after that, @Foxbrough to face Shield leaders NE the next Wednesday, a nd then finish the run in Houston that Sunday.  5 games in 15 days, including 3 on the road.
• They then get a week off before the season finale against LAFC at home the following Sunday.
• Special shout out to Drew Moor for becoming the 8th player all time in MLS history to reach 400 appearances.  199 of those with the  Rapids (I think).
• The Rapids are still perfect this season when he plays, won every game and haven't conceded when he's been on the field.

Men of the Match: A special dual Man of the Match award for this one.

• First, Clint Irwin.  No, he didn't play.  But he made the most heads up play I've seen in a while, even if it was probably meaningless.  After Barrios went down in the box there was no call and play continued.  Minnesota cleared the ball out near the Rapids bench and Trusty ran over to take a quick throw-in.  Irwin leaped off the bench and shoved Auston to prevent the throw-in.  Irwin knew the VAR rules, which only allows a review back to the last stoppage of play.  Had the throw-in been taken the possible PK could no longer be reviewed.  Instead it was reviewed and given.  Now looking at the replay you can see the 4th official stepping in to stop the replay and if the VAR is doing its job its telling the center ref its looking at a possible replay and he shouldn't allow play to continue, so odds are the play would have been stopped anyway, but its good to see the bench that focused and involved, and that pause and then PK was the turning point in the game.
• Second, Michael Barrios.  For his on-field play.  Came on as a sub, drew a PK, scored a goal, and got an assist on the 3rd.  Clearly the best player on the pitch on Sunday.

Colorado Looking To Improve On Playoff Result

Last time we were in Minnesota the Rapids crashed out of the 2020 playoffs on the wrong side of a 3-0 scoreline.  Tomorrow they go in as possibly the favorite (though the current betting line favors United) but certainly with the expectation we can get a better result.  If you are confused about when this game is happening I'm not surprised as its been moved at least twice.  The game was announced a couple of months ago as having been moved to be on ESPN, then a couple weeks ago it was announced to have moved forward an hour to 2-,m MT and will only be on Altitude.  I think once tomorrow's World Cup qualifiers got set ESPN had to make the change to not overlap and they didn't have room for it.  This was so surprising that Richard Fleming, assuming he would have the weekend off since the game was on ESPN, scheduled a trip for him and his son to go to Seattle and watch the Sounders.  So he will not be on the call tomorrow, which might be the first ever game he's missed since he arrived.  I'm not sure who will be filling in.  Again, kickoff is 2pm tomorrow and the game is on Altitude, unfortuantely.

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, F Diego Rubio

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION:  D Auston Trusty, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan

You'll see one name surprisingly missing from that list.  Lucas Esteves is not suspended for the game after his red card last week as the Independent Review Panel (IRP) reversed his red card.  They also reveres the red card on Minnesota's Reynoso, which is arguably a bigger impact.  I'm surprised they reversed either one, but I do wonder if they felt like it needed to be both or neither to be "fair".

I was trying to wait to post this until the Rapids sent out their game notes with any injury updates but nothing's hit the inbox yet.  If it does I'll update the listing.  Reports by Matt Pollard is that Yarbrough practiced the last two days and is probable for the match, crossing my fingers that he plays.

EDIT: Injury report is out

Injury Report:

QUESTIONABLE: GK William Yarbrough

International Absences:

USA: M Kellyn Acosta

CANADA: M Mark-Anthony Kaye

Given the absence of Acosta and Kaye I expect we'll see this 5-4-1/3-4-3 formation that Fraser has been tinkering with this season instead of the 4-3-3.  I expect that in possession Barrios and Namli will push forward of Rubio and Galvan (or possibly Esteves) and Rosenberry will push up into the midfield.  In defense we'll see Barrios and Namli drop back more into the midfield and the wing backs playing back with the central 3 defenders.  There still really isn't a solution for what burned us in the playoff match as there's not much in the center of the park with our Nats out.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  Minnesota is missing more than we are to callups, which will help, but I think our losses are probably more critical.  I'm still concerned we don't match up well with Minnesota in midfield though.  If we can get out of this game with a point and without Abubakar picking up a yellow that will suspend him for the Rocky Mountain Cup match next week I'll feel ok about the result.

Rapids Faceplant In Seattle

That was rough.  Colorado barely had time to get its boots on before they were down 1-0, then they went down 2-0 before the midpoint of the half.  It was pretty much over then, but Seattle added on just before the break to end the game.  It was ugly.

Random Thoughts:

• This game showed the difference between the team we are and the team we want to be.  Seattle capitalized on all of our mistakes.  We didn't capitalize on any of Seattle's mistakes.
• The first goal was a poor play from Rosenberry, exacerbated by a unlucky deflection.  But we would have gotten away with both of those if Irwin could have made the save.  It wasn't "easy" but a good keeper makes it.  This would just be the first indication that Irwin was not a good keeper last night.
• The second goal was Seattle at its best as a team.  I think every Sounder touched the ball in an ~18 pass sequence leading to the goal.  Despite that, it took the defense being completely out of position and Irwin missing on a ball any professional keeper should be prepared for to give up the goal.
• The final score was a bit of individual dribbling brilliance from Seattle and a whole lot of Keystone Kops defending from Colorado, including Irwin yet again not making the play on the ball.
• Seriously, the Sounders only had 4 shots on goal in the first half, and Irwin saved the weakest of the 4.  (and it was quite weak).  I really hope Yarbrough's injury is short-term.
• Meanwhile the Rapids had good looks at goal, and couldn't convert.  At the end of the game the eXpected Goals was 1.5 to 1.1.  The difference was one team being clinical in front of goal and the other wasn't.
• If I have one real frustration with this season, its been Fraser trying to adjust our system from a 4-3-3 to a 5-4-1 midseason when we really weren't built for it.  Rosenberry is not a wing back and I think forcing him into that role is the reason he's had some shaky appearances this year.  Galvan and the others we've tried at left wingback also aren't the right fits.  I know Fraser is trying to get all 3 CB's on the field at once, but we looked better in this match when we went back to the 4-3-3.  We just need to stick with that for the last 7 matches.
• Esteves got red carded on a weak call in the second half.  In real-time it looked like a ridiculous call.  In hindsight, with some help from actual refs, I can see how you might get to red but its still a harsh call.  That's a yellow at best IMO.  But its close enough that the IRP won't overturn it so he'll miss the game in Minnesota.
• With Yarbrough not starting and Rosenberry being subbed out, no Rapid has played every minute this season.
• With this result Seattle moves to 54 points, 6 points ahead of us, on equal games.  Even if we beat them here on the 20th we're still 3 points back with 6 to play.  Realistically we're playing for second at best (SKC is 4 points up on us, but we have a game in hand) and we probably need to be more concerned about Portland passing us for 3rd (2 points back but we have a game in hand).
• The good news is that there's a drop off after that.  Minnesota is in 5th on PPG and they're 10 points back on equal games.  FSL and the Galaxy are only 9 points back but we have a game in hand.  We should still be confident in a home playoff match, but it would be really good to not be in the 4th spot and have to go back to Seattle in the 2nd round.

Man of the Match: Kellyn Acosta.  Nobody really stood out, but Acosta didn't do anything wrong and was one of the few dangerous players we had.

Battle For The Top

With a win on Sunday night the Rapids would go top of the West on PPG (tied with Seattle).  Because of tiebreakers and the game in hand they wouldn't be listed in first yet though.  Getting even a draw would keep the top of the West pretty tight.  A loss would give Seattle a nice gap over the Rapids, so there's a lot on the line.  Kickoff is at 8pm MT, and its an Altitude game.

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, M Collen Warner 

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION:  D Auston Trusty, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan, F Diego Rubio

No injury updates since Wednesday, but we have to keep an eye on Yarbrough and Esteves after the knocks they took against Austin.

I expect to see us use Acosta and Kay for 90 minutes as after this match they're leaving for international callups (btw, first round pick Philip Mayaka was on the preliminary list for Kenya's WCQs in this window).  The rest of the lineup is based on who was rested on Wednesday and the always-starters like Rosenberry.  Esteves will likely be rested after 90 minutes against Austin and his injury.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Kaye.  This is a little optimistic because Seattle has always been a tough place for us to play and they're a really good team this year, but they are a little banged up.  We also got through the Austin game while resting most of our key players.  So I think we've got enough to get a draw out of this one.

Colorado Rolls To A Much Needed Win

Well that's what the doctor ordered for the Rapids.  A relatively easy 3 goal win using our backups sets us up well for our final 8 game run to the playoffs.  Austin had one really good look (which we'll get into later), otherwise our defense kept them quiet and our offense finally found its shooing boots (with some help from Austin's defense).  With the win the Rapids go to 48 points, within 10 points of their all-time record.

Random Observations:

• Lets talk about that Austin attack that somehow didn't result in discipline of some sort.  Abubakar got beat and reached out to throw the Austin striker off his shot.  Live I thought for sure it should be a PK and card.  Watching the replay I'm pretty sure it should have been a foul just outside the box and a card.  I think the ref got that wrong.  Its probably a red card for Denial of an Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity, but you could make the case that Trusty was close enough to cover.  That, along with it being just outside the box (probably) is why VAR didn't get involved, because the no-PK call was correct and the lack of a red was not a clear and obvious mistake.  But it was a missed call without a doubt.
• The Rapids took that gift and ran with it.  Lewis got on the board with the last kick of the half, but I don't know how that didn't stay an own goal on Austin.  Maybe on replay you can make the case that Lewis' header was going in but I think its a stretch.
• Then right after half Austin's keeper set up Mezquida nicely with a pass right too him while he was outside his goal area.  Easy shot and score for Nico.
• Finally the Rapids got a goal without Austin's help, with Trusty heading in a Price corner kick.
• The only real negative from this match was injuries.  Both Yarbrough and Esteves went down in the second half.  Yarbrough got back up after treatment and finished the game, and we could have subbed him out at 3-0 up if we were really concerned about him.  Esteves went down in stoppage time and hobbled through the last couple of minutes, we'll have to see how he is.
• Fraser rolled the dice a bit on this one, putting out a B lineup.  He was betting our B squad could beat Austin and/or our rested A squad could beat Seattle in Seattle on Sunday.  As long as he got one of those bets right he was fine, and he did.  If he gets both right he's a genius.  But had he missed on both then he'd have some questions to answer.
• Right now FSL is in 5th and is on pace for 49 points.  So one more win in our final 8 should pretty much clinch a home playoff game.  Portland is in 4th, on pace for 54.  So we need at least tat least wo wins to feel good about finishing top 3.  (Especially if one of them is against Portland).  Its likely the top 3 positions are going to come down to the final games.
• As mentioned, next up is Seattle in Seattle, a tough place for us to place historically.

Man of the Match:  Jack Price.  2 assists, including his team record 11th game winner of the season.  He's already only the third Rapid to have multiple seasons with 10+ assists (Paz, Cooke).  He's the engine for this team right now.