Quick & Dirty Houston Preview

Long but fun day at the Con.  Christopher Eccleston, aka the Ninth Doctor, has been the best guest so far.  Its good to get back to doing these type of things.  Anyway, the quick game preview.  Nobosy is suspended, Namli, Rosenberry, and Acosta are Questionable on the injury report.  Notes from practice have been that Namli and Acosta could be available this week, Rosenberry maybe by next week, certainly by the playoffs.

Nothing has changed in the standings since Thursday, the games that would impact us are all tomorrow.  Portland, who with a draw or loss would clinch 3rd for us, doesn't play this weekend.  We want to keep an eye on Philly and Nashville in regards to our overall standing for possible CCL positioning but no impact on our playoff position.  KC plays Minnesota finishing just as we kickoff, so we'll know if we've been eliminated from winning the West by a KC win as we start.  Seattle plays Vancouver on Monday so if we don't lose we'll still have a shot at 2nd until then.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Barrios and Badji.  Neither guy started on Wednesday and I'm sure Fraser is going to put out a full strength squad to try to get this done tomorrow and go into next week with a hope of playing for something more than 3rd, but not needing to play for anything if other results don't go our way.  Houston is a bad team, we should win this without having to sweat it out much at the end.

Rapids Reserves Hold Up Against Shield Winners

Fraser decided to go with a heavy rotation in last night's game, with arguably only 5 of our best XI starting (Yarbrough, Abubakar, Trusty, Rubio, and maybe Esteves).  The bad news was that Acosta, Namli, and Rosenberry all didn't make the trip due to injury (reports today are that the first two should be available in Houston while Rosenberry will be ready at least by the playoffs if not the LAFC game).  Despite that it took until the second half for the Shield winners, starting their first XI, to breakthrough and it took a quality goal to do it.  While the loss isn't great, and boy did we have a couple of chances to get a point, its good to see that our depth held up on a cold night in Massachusetts.

Random Musings:

• Lets discuss the standings first.  KC won last night, beating the Galaxy, which clinched a home playoff match for the Rapids.  Portland won, so we didn't clinch a top 3.  KC won and is now 3 points ahead of us and tied with Seattle, and KC has a game in hand.
• So what that means is that regardless of what we do on Sunday against Houston, a KC win this weekend and a Seattle win on Monday puts them out of reach (since we lose the tiebreakers against them).  If we get a draw or Portland doesn't win we'll clinch 3rd.  There's a very good chance that by Monday we'll be locked into 3rd and the LAFC game will be meaningless for us.
• Back to the game, the team held up well against "superior" opposition.  While the Revs won the stat battle they didn't get a good look at goal until the 70th minute, and the looks they did get we covered.
• Their goal came on a low-percentage shot (less than 10%) that Buchanan took from a tight angle and just beat Trusty and Yarbrough.  Neither of them did anything wrong, it was one of those cases where you have to tip your hat and say "well done, you beat us).
• Meanwhile the Rapids had a couple of great looks and couldn't convert.  Sadly the best was probably Cole Bassett ho had it center of the box with space to shoot and managed a slow roller to Taylor.  Not what we needed there.
• Drew Moor's perfect record was broken in the 32nd game of the season.  Until last night, his first start of the season, we had won every game he appeared in and not given up a goal when he was on the field.  It was his 200th appearance as a Rapid though.
• Beitashour was solid on the right, for not having a lot of playing time.  I'm not suggesting he should be getting more, but its nice to know he's ready to step in if necessary, given that Fraser did not think he was ready at this time last year.
• There was another chance at the death that just didn't roll our way.  A cross in front of the goal managed to be a few inches in front of Badji and a few inches behind Lewis, either one of which would have had a tap-in.
• Now the schedule gets easier, with a long-eliminated Houston on Sunday and then a week until we get LAFC at home.  Its unlikely LAFC will be eliminated by them but they may be on life support.
• I've got tickets to Fan EXPO Denver all weekend, so I may or may not get a game preview up before Sunday.  Depends on how tired I am after the con tomorrow and Saturday night.  I won't get to see much, if any, of the game on Sunday as it kicks off at the same time as the keynote guest, William Shatner, goes on stage.

Man of the Match: Auston Trusty.  He was a rock in defense, breaking up a number of NE attacks and being a sweeper in front of Yarbrough.  As clearly the most improved player of the season he has a real shot at defensive player of the year.

Reverse Jameson Night

I'm not sure what a reverse Jameson Night is exactly, maybe drinking after the game?  Regardless the Rapids flew out to Boston today to face New England tomorrow night.  The Revs wrapped up the Shield over the weekend but are 1 win away from setting a league record for points.  Meanwhile the Rapids need 1 point to clinch a top 3 finish and 3 to keep up with SKC and Seattle.  So this game is both not really important and very important for both teams.  Kickoff is at 5pm tomorrow.

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: M Collen Warner

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan, M Jack Price

The injury report is still clear so hopefully that means Namli and Rosenberry will be available tomorrow.  But they weren't listed on Saturday and were unavailable so who knows.

This is a best guess based on who played this weekend and who didn't and knowing that maybe we won't go 100% into this one with a much more winnable game this weekend.  But at this point there's not much that would surprise me in the lineup.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  New England is the best team in the league, but with the lack of crossover games this season we don't really know how good they are.  The West has a better record in interconference games so far this season, and this will be the only time (until MLS Cup possibly) that New England will play a playoff-caliber team from the West).  I think we're going to find out the Revs are good, but that their large lead over the rest of the league has been slightly inflated by the weakness of the East and it will be a pretty even matchup.

Rapids Clinch Playoffs, On Verge Of Clinching Home Game

A strong performance on Saturday night booked Colorado's spot in the playoffs.  Combined with the other results we were a late Galaxy goal way from clinching a home playoff match.  That will come in due time.  For a battle between 3rd and 4th place Portland was awfully flat the whole match and it never felt like they were going to win this game, but given the Rapids track record this year it wasn't until the second goal that you felt like they weren't going to give points away.  One of the better all-around games of the season.

Random Musings:

• The big disappointment was seeing Namli out injured again, and Rosenberry injured.  I think this is the first  start Rosenberry has missed since arriving in Colorado for non-COVID reasons.  Meanwhile our million dollar DP has made 5 of 31 starts this season.
• It felt like a big night in C38.  From the opening whistle there was an increased energy in 117 that we hadn't had in a while.
• Somehow Dominique Badji has turned into a great backup striker.  3 goals in 2 starts and 225 total minutes since he returned to Commerce City.  And its hard to believe at times but he just turned 29 years old last weekend, so he could be around for a while.  He's already moved up to a tie with Wolde Harris for 6th all-time in career scoring for the Rapids.
• Portland had one shot with an Expected Goals of 5.52%.  Everything else was under 5%.  Yarbrough had an easy night.
• I'm not sure how much Rubio really knew about his shot that went in.  Galvan's cross was headed by a Timbers' defender right onto Rubio's head and into the goal.  To be fair to Diego he did appear to try to put some force behind it but it was a bang-bang play and I think he could have just stood there and he would have scored.
• Ok, lets talk playoffs.  The Rapids have clinched no worse than 5th place.  With 1 more point, or a point lost by Portland and the Galaxy they'll clinch a top 3 finish in the West and a home playoff match.  (Portland or the Galaxy dropping a point would clinch 4th and a home match).  I expect to get that done no later than this weekend, maybe by Wednesday night.
• With 4 more points 9or points dropped by Nashville and Philly) they'll clinch a top 4 overall finish in the league.  This is important because the top 3 will all get a Concacaf Champions League position, and if the MLS Cup winner has already qualified for the CCL, the 4th best team would get a CCL spot.
• Looking at the remaining schedules for Seattle and Kansas City I think its unlikely we catch one (or both) of them for a top 2 spot.  Seattle shouldn't struggle to get 7 points in their last 3 games, which would put them out out our reach.  KC will probably get 9 points, which means the best we could do is tie them and KC has the tiebreaker.  With 4 games we need KC to drop at least two games to have any real chance of catching them.
• Of course doing any of that requires us to beat New England on a cold Boston Wednesday night.  The Revs wrapped up the Shield over the weekend and have almost nothing left to play for, but a win in one of their final 2 games would give them the all-time points record for MLS.
• We don't know yet which day the Rapids would host a playoff match, but it will be one of Nov 20th, 21st, or 23rd.

Man of the Match: Braian Galvan.  2 assists made this an easy pick.  He's settling in now in MLs and I'm really looking for a big year from him in 2022.

Rapids Have 3rd Chance To Clinch Playoff Spot

Ok, we had a chance to clinch a playoff spot last Saturday in Sandy and we saw how that went.  Then we had a chance to do it Wednesday night and gave it away.  3rd time is the charm, right?  If we beat Portland tomorrow night if we draw and Vancouver loses or if Minnesota or the Galaxy don't win we clinch.  We can also clinch even if we lose if the Galaxy lose and Vancouver doesn't win (Vancouver doesn't win and either the Galaxy lose or Minnesota and LAFC draw.  Also if we win And Minnesota and Vancouver don't win and the Galaxy lose we clinch a home playoff gamed.

Got all that?  Really what matters here is a win really puts us in the driver's seat for a top 3 finish, and draw keeps us in good shape for that.  A loss and its hold on to your butts time as Portland will be within 3 points with an easier schedule since they don't have to travel and play the Revs.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm and it sounds like Richard Fleming will be back in the booth from his health and safety protocol absences the last two games.

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: M Collen Warner

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan

The injury report is clean so hopefully that means Namli and Rosenberry will be available tomorrow.

If Rosenberry can't go I think we see Kelly get the start.  That may cause some knock on changes if Fraser feels like he needs defensive help (like not playing Namli in front of him).  If Namli can't go Barrios will IMO.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Trusty.  Portland's offense has been a bit better than ours but our defense is much better.  The Timbers are coming off a crushing defeat at home to their rival Vancouver, and I don't think you bounce back from that by coming to altitude on short rest.  Colorado hasn't had to travel and had a couple of core guys (Abubakar, Namli) get some rest on Wednesday.  I think that's enough to make the difference in this one as the Rapids book their spot in the playoffs.