Going To Another Level

After our 3 wins in a week last week the Rapids have jumped up to 4th and been a trendy talk around the MLS talking head circuit.  This week we find out if Colorado deserves that interest.  Tomorrow night we're out on SoCal facing LAFC, one of the top teams in the league.  They've only lost twice in their last 14 games, but one of those two losses was on March 30th at the Dick.  Colorado's never been able to withdraw any points at the Bank, being outscored 14-2 in our 5 games out there (LAFC has had similar but not quite as severe, struggles when coming to Colorado) so this is a big hill to climb.  Appropriate on the night the Tour de France starts.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 8:30 MT, and we're stuck with LA locak Max Bretos and former FSL player Brian Dunseth on the call so I'm not expecting a very Rapids-centric broadcast.

Player Availability:

OUT: D Moise Bombito (Team Canada), D Jackson Travis (stress fracture)

Glad to see no new names on the list.  Bombito could be back by the 4th of July if Canada loses tomorrow night, assuming he's coning back and not being sold.  I'm rooting for The Reds to advance though.

I think the only questions here are the wingers and the Larraz/Ronan choice.  On the former I think you reward Harris for his play against Montreal with another start, and Cabral is stronger than Fernandez.  On the latter, given LAFC's offence (they put 6 up against San Jose last week) I think you want the slightly more defensive Larraz over Ronan.  The other 8 positions pick themselves.

Prediction: 3-2 loss, goals by Navarro and Mihailovic.  Maybe the Rapids will surprise me and show that they really have improved but I can't quite get myself to them getting their first point on the road against this team.  I wouldn't be shocked by a hard-earned draw but I don't expect it.  A win would be once of the more impressive results we've seen in recent years.

Navarro Deal Done

This morning the Rapids made the Navarro deal official.  He's signed through 2027 with a team option for 2028.  No official announcement of the transfer fee but the 3.5 million dollar number has been reported by multiple outlets.

This is a big move for the Rapids.  If I had to quibble if this were a perfect world I would have liked to see the Rapids spend 2.5 million and then add on an incentive level for the last 1 million, only because Navarro's scoring numbers look slightly inflated compared to his advanced stats.  But that doesn't by any means make this a bad deal and obviously Palmeiras wouldn't necessarily agree to anything less than $3.5M.

Now we go into the summer window knowing we've got our starting 9 and 10 locked down for the long-term.  That allows us to look at filling out our last major need, a 6, as well as building up our depth (especially at CB and winger).  Of course if Bombito does get sold then we have another hole to fill.

Navarro In, Ilic Out, Bombito Out?

We've got some players moving around, or not moving, or maybe moving.  Lets take ti from what seems most confident to what's still up in the air.

Braidon Nourse of the Denver Post is reporting that the deal to make Rafael Navarro a permanent member of the Rapids is done.  A 3.5 million dollar transfer fee and a new contract through the 2027 season.  This is a million dollars less than the originally negotiated purchase price in the loan.  With the $500K loan fee its a total of $4M, making him the highest priced player in Rapids history, beating out Mihailovic's $3.5M this past offseason.

Combining the Navarro deal, the Mihailovic deal, and other moves made in the offseason (loan fee for Diack for example) the Rapids have spent around $8M on loans and transfer fees in the last two windows.  That's a severe departure from the normal operation of the club by KSE.  Something that should be noted.

Also reported by Braidon (same link) is that Colorado is close to permanently transferring goalkeeper Marko Ilic to a European team, but not Sarpsborg where he's currently on loan.  I don't think this is a surprise to anyone, as soon as he left on loan I (among others) said he'd never come back to Colorado.  We'll see what we can get for him in a transfer fee, but barring a surprising deal I think its safe to say that his move was one of the larger boondoggles in Rapids history.  We don't need to rehash the details at this point, the faster we put the move in the rearview mirror the better.

The last bet of news is that Moise Bombito is still a Rapid.  For now.  Tom Bogert reported yesterday that Colorado turned down an offer of 4 million dollars from French Ligue 1 side Lyon.  Lyon is expected to submit a new offer and there's interest from other teams, including the possibility that Lyon buy him and loan him to Botafogo in Brazil (same owner).  This would be a fairly unusual move though and unless Bombito has some personal connection in Brazil I don't see why he'd accept a move like that.  He'd likely be better off staying with a team he's already settled into, even if its slight step lower than Brazil, and then moving direct to Europe next season.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if a deal gets done in the next couple of week and it includes loaning him out, but that loan is back to Colorado, a la Auston Trusty when he went to Arsenal.  This is a pattern we've seen a few times across MLS and it makes more sense than Brazil.  The downside is that if he goes somewhere right now and joins a team for preseason he can fight for a starting job.  If he stays here through the end of the season, even on loan, and then transfers to Europe in our offseason he'll be coming into a team with (presumably) an already established starter for the season.

Padraig Smith was on the DNVR podcast two weeks ago where a potential move for Bombito was discussed.  At that point, and things change fast in the transfer world, Smith was really leaning into the idea that there was still more for him in Colorado and there wasn't going to be a move soon.  Now he did say that if a Premier League team, Champions League team, top-level Europa League team came in then that's a move that makes sense for the club and for Bombito.  Well until the last 4 years Lyon was a top 5 team in France and still hasn't finished lower than 8th in almost 30 years.  They're not a "top" Europa League club right now but they're just below that.  So you have to think there's some real teeth in this possible move.

9 Goal 9 Point Week

The Rapids capped off their most successful week since 2021 on Saturday night with a 4-1 win over Montreal.  9 points and 9 goals in 3 games with only 1 given up (and that an own goal).  Yes they were against an 8th, 12th, and 14th placed team (and the latter two were at home) but we've seen many Colorado teams in the past who would play down to their opponents and not get the points.

That's a significant difference in this team compared to many (most?) past teams.  They are largely beating the teams they're supposed to beat.  With the exception of the San Jose choke job every other team that's beaten us is in a playoff spot.  Seattle is the only team we've drawn not in a playoff spot   We've beaten the bad teams and held our own against the rest of the league.  Heck we beat the Utah Soccer Club and LAFC, and Miami had to bring Messi and friends off the bench to rescue a draw.

The score line on Saturday was a little deceiving though.  While Colorado was the stronger team there was a 20 minute period to start the second half where it felt like Montreal might climb back into the game.  Especially after the one goal in the 53rd minute.  Not much Abubakar could have done about the own goal, if he doesn't play it a Montreal striker is there to tap it in.  If there's anyone to blame its Maxso who watched the ball and allowed his man to slip behind him.  In the end though the shot that set up the own goal was Montreal's only shot on target.

Now it gets a bit harder.  After a week off we head to LA to face LAFC.  Last time we were on a good roll and went into a top team we hit FC Cincinnati who easily outplayed us.  We're going to have to up our game to get a result out there.  After that though we come home to two games that we should win, a weak SKC team on 4th of July and the St. Louis team we just beat.  Colorado probably needs 5 more wins to feel confident about their playoff chances.  That would put us at 47 points which should be enough unless its a really weird year.  4 of the remaining 6 games before the Leagues Cup break are at home, but 4 of th3 6 games are also against teams above us in the table, including both road games which have us facing the LA teams.

Man of the Match: Calvin Harris.  2 goals, all we needed to beat Montreal.

Wait, They're Still In This League?

If you think its been a while since we've seen Montreal, it has.  5 years to be exact.  The COVID scheduling in 2020 and 2021 really threw a wrench into some of the cross-conference matchups.  Hopefully things settle out from here.  Colorado goes for a 9 point week tomorrow night in Commerce City.  It's a huge day of soccer starting with Fiji-Tahiti at 1am (FIFA+) and running through the Euros, Copa America, and into MLS tomorrow night.   Kickoff is at 7:30, so fit those two hours in-between the other matches!

Player Availability:

OUT: D Moise Bombito (Team Canada), D Jackson Travis (stress fracture)

Good to see KSB back from injury and Fredrick available as well.  I expect we see some rotation tomorrow but the spine of the team will likely need to find another 60 minutes or so to get through this week.

I think Keegan and Fernandez get rests off the start, and there will likely be quick hooks for Cabral, Navarro, Mihailovic, and Bassett.  The back-line doesn't have much depth right now so they're going to have to power through.  Ronan rotates with Larraz like we saw last Saturday.

Prediction: 2-1 goals by Navarro and Bassett.  Montreal's defense is one of the worst in the league (worse than ours) and had this been a game with normal rest I probably would predict us scoring 3 goals.  With the short rest and warm temps though I'm not sure we're going to be able to push for that third, or keep Montreal off the board.  A shutout would me more likely than 3 goals though.