Mickey Mouse Club Time

 

Canaveral National Seashore

I was in Disneyland last weekend but its Florida's Mickey Mouse Club this week as Orlando and our old friend Oscar Pareja come to town tomorrow night.  The good news is that the weather looks great, if a bit hot.  I wouldn't expect any delays but this is Colorado in June so you can't rule it out.  Orlando is 8th in the East to the Rapids 9th in the West but the East is more competitive (the 10th place team in the East would be 6th in the West) so based on track record so far the visitors would be the favorite.   Kickoff tomorrow is the normal 7:30pm.

Availability Report:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (knee), M Ali Fadal (knee), M Wayne Frederick (Trinidad & Tobago Nats), M Alex Harris (ankle)

Harris is a bit of a surprise, but not one that should be a big impact.  Good to see Bassett off the injury report.

I don't think Cole will start immediately coming back from injury, he'll probably sub in for his brother with 30-35 minutes left.  I don't love Travis at left back but Armas seems to.  The rest feels fairly likely.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Mihailovic.  Given our recent play its hard to see us scoring more than 1 and its also hard to see us giving up less than 2.  The only teams that haven't gotten 2 against us in the last 10 games are Seattle (surprisingly), St. Louis, and FSL.  Getting a point here would be a bit of a moral victory, getting a win would be a big step in turning our recent struggles around.

Midpoint Check-In

After the Portland loss I mentioned that I'd be back with an Austin recap.  Well I heard enough about the game while travelling this weekend that I decided not to watch the replay and just skip the recap.  But there has been a couple of pieces of news and we are at the halfway point of the season so we should assess the team.

The two pieces of news are first that Zack Steffen had surgery on his knee and will miss 4-6 weeks, while obviously missing his chance to start for the U.S. at the Gold Cup.  I feel lousy for him because the U.S. number 1 shirt is there for the taking and he's missing an opportunity.  We were going to be without him through the Gold Cup anyway so the big impact for the Rapids will be in July when Hansen will be starting while Steffen is in recovery.

The second piece of news is that Tom Bogert is reporting that the Rapids are close to signing Israeli center back Stav Lemkin.  He's a 22 year old international who got his start with Haopel Tel Aviv and was bought by Ukrainian side Shaktar Donetsk in 2023 and loaned to Maccabi Tel Aviv last season.  He started about half of Maccabi's games in 2024-25.  The reported price to buy him is $1.6 million.

This move is a really good indicator that Maxso is on his way out this summer.  In the offseason there were reports of interest from teams in the Middle East and I don't see why you sign Lemkin if you have Maxso.  This is also likely an indicator that one of our DP's will be reclassified or moved on.  Lamkin is U-22 eligible and MLS allows teams to have 3 DPs and 3 U-22s or 2 DPs and 4 U-22s.  We currently have Cabral, Mihailovic, and Navarro as DPs and Bassett, Atencio, and Ku-DiPietro as U-22s.  U-22s can't be reclassified but DP's can.  So we could use TAM to buy down Mihailovic or Navarro (Cabral makes too much) to open a U-22 slot, or we could finally buy out Cabral to do it.  (We could theoretically be moving on from one of the other two DPs, but that would be suicide.)

If Maxso is moving on then we obviously need a CB to replace him.  Rosenberry, Cannon, Awaziem, and Murphy is not enough to fill 3 spots on the back line.  I'm not sure we need to be spending $1.6M on an unproven (at MLS level) on a CB though when we have much greater needs in attack.  We also have to address the elephant in the room that with the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian war there's a natural reaction from some fans to people from either country.  Two days after the 10/7 Hamas attacks Lemkin was interviewed by Shaktar's website and said some things that don't sound great.  But that was over 18 months ago and 2 days after a pretty significant event.  We certainly saw some notable people say some questionable things on September 13th, 2001.  Until I see some more recent quotes from him I'm keeping an open mind about where he stands.

With that thorny issue out of the way, lets take a step back and look at the team as a whole.  We're 17 games into the 34 game season, so right at the midway point.  We are 9th in the West (8th on PPG) with 22 points from those 17 games.  So holding down the last playoff spot.

That's the good news.  The bad news?  We have 2 wins in our last 9 games.  Both of them 1-0 home wins over bad teams (FSL and St. Louis).  In 7 of our last 10 games, including all 5 road games in that period, we've given up 2 goals.  The reality is that after a hot start in the first quarter of the season we've been a very bad team in the second quarter.

Of our new players I'd argue only Awaziem has really played well.  Atencio hasn't had a real noticeable impact and Ku-Pietro's delay to start the season means he's just now really getting integrated with the team.  Murphy has made an effort but it hasn't resulted in much yet.  On offense this team lives and dies with Mihailovic and to a lesser extent Navarro.  On defense we're almost completely reliant on Steffen or Hansen putting up top tier numbers to keep us in games.

Colorado faces a 4 game stint starting on Saturday where they have to pick it up a notch or two.  Orlando is a better team (5 more points from the same number of games) but is on the road.  Then we have a VERY bad Galaxy side at home, a bad New England side on the road, and bad SKC side at home on the 4th.  We need at least 8 points from those 4 games and even that might not be enough because the 4 games after that going into Leagues Cup include both conference leaders and two teams above us in the West (Philly, Vancouver, LAFC, and Seattle).  If we're not at least 30 points at the end of the 4th of July game we can pretty much write off this season.  We won't play another "easy" team until game 27 in mid-August, at which point it will likely be too late.

Consistently Inconsistent

For 55-60 minutes last night the Rapids were on the front foot and were in great shape.  Then the last 30-35 minutes turned into a house of horrors.  Mihailovic pulls up with a hamstring issue (Armas said post-game it was a cramp), Bassett hits the bar from inside the 6 yard box, Antony kills us again, Frederick loses his head and picks up a straight red, and Hansen fumbles a save.  End result, a 2-1 loss from a game that was an inch from being 2-0 Rapids in the second half.

We could go through the gory details of the meltdown but I want to focus on something different.  Namely the number of players that can't be counted on on this roster right now.  Djordje is clearly the team MVP and has a shout both for the National Team and the All-Star Game and a Best XI spot.  Outside of that though, how many people on this roster can be counted on to give a solid above-average (or even average) MLS starter performance game in and game out right now?  Especially if you take injury history into account.

If we focus on just our highest priced players, say above $500K, here's that list (in order from most to least paid):

• Cabral - Can't even be counted on to be a "super" sub
• Mihailovic - As mentioned, no concerns about him
• Navarro - Good work when he's on the field, but has missed 25% of starts
• Maxso - Not consistent enough in his play
• Awaziem - Maybe?  He's new so I'm not fully bought in, but close
• Steffen - This year, yes, last year, not so much, and he's missed 5 of 16 games
• Vines - LOL, very much no
• C. Bassett - He's had a rough first half, good, but not good enough
• Cannon - Very inconsistent IMO
• Ronan - A sub off the bench and not a consistent one

That's 10 players making over $500K, 3 of whom aren't starters and at least 2 others who I feel like we can't count on, arguably more when you add in Navarro's and Steffen's absences.  Mihailovic, Awaziem, and maybe Bassett are the only ones close to a sure thing.

That's a real problem when at least 5 of your top 10 and 2 of your top 5 paid players can't be counted on.  And we saw that last night.  Cabral was useless off the bench.  Mihailovic did it himself on the Rapids goal with a swerving run from midfield.  Navarro, Awaziem, Steffen and Bassett missed the game (or most of it) for injury or recovery from injury.  Maxso was caught out on both goals running back towards goal and marking space in both cases.  Vines was not involved despite being healthy.  Cannon was also caught out on both Portland goals running back towards the goal and marking really nobody.  Ronan was a late sub that did very little.

The Rapids have gone all in on draft picks, homegrowns, and playing kids.  The problem is when your best option for an injured Mihailovic is a raw Wayne Fredrick and your best option to replace Cole Bassett is his rookie younger brother you lose games like this.  The money going to Cabral and Ronan, for example, should be going to better backups for Cole and Djordje.  Until the roster construction is fixed, especially in midfield, the Rapids are going to consistently see-saw back and forth.

Colorado now has 10 days off until our home game against Austin, since the LAFC game on Saturday was move to July.  I'll be unavailable to do a preview for the Austin game so barring any news I'll likely be fairly quiet until after that game.  I home to do a recap though, should my time allow. and if not normal programming will resume with the Orlando match.

Man of the Match: Djordje Mihailovic, obviously.  The game turned on his cramp.

Midtable Battle For Midweek

Mount Rainier National Park, which can be seen from Portland

A quick turn around as we head to the Pacific Northwest (though not the best part) for tomorrow night's game against Portland.  As annoying as a midweek road trip is I think I'd take the home game on Saturday and trip to Portland over the Timbers playing in Orlando on Saturday and then flying home to host.  Even with our rain delay the burgundy boys were nicely home and in bed (or whatever) before the Timber's plane even flew over Colorado.  The Rapids are one point behind the Timbers in the standings and depending on other results a winner tomorrow could pass Seattle and LAFC.  Kickoff is at 8:30pm.

Availability Report:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (oblique), D Keegan Rosenberry (non-injury, new parent), M Cole Bassett (ankle), M Ali Fadal (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: F Rafael Navarro (ankle)

That's not much better.  At this point we won't see Steffen in a Rapids kit until after the Gold Cup in July.  Hopefully the bye weekend will allow Navarro and Bassett to get healthy in time for the Austin game.

I think for the most part Armas sticks with the lineup from Saturday night.  He won't risk Navarro on turf with the long break coming up, at least as a starter.  He might be a sub if needed.  The only real change is Awaziem going in for Murphy.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Mihailovic.  The Timbers rolled us 3-0 for our first league loss back in March but I think we've figured a few things out since then.  In an midweek clash I think we can force a draw.  Both teams have the weekend off so there's no reason to save legs which should make this a little more intense than the average Wednesday game.

A Tradition Unlike Any Other

The now annual late spring/early summer Rapids tradition of a lightning delay returned on Saturday.  6+ minutes into the game the sky flashed and we all sat and waited for 100 minutes before everyone came out to play the other 83 minutes.  You never know how a team will react to a delay like that, we've seen some Rapids teams come out flat after a long delay.  On Saturday the team seemed unaffected by the long layoff and came out and played their game.

That was helped by a St. Louis team that seemed to be playing for a 0-0 draw or winning with a stolen counter-attack goal from the opening whistle.  They had two tightly spaced lines with a single striker roaming up front and for the most part they seemed happy to let the home side have possession.  That said, the first real big chance came in the 36th minute where a horrible misplay by Murphy left Toikirk off and running with only Hansen to beat.  Hansen, however, was up to the challenge and stoned the At. Louis attacker.  Steffen couldn't have done any better.  The slick field helped prevent an easy rebound goal.

5 minutes later Yapi made the visitors pay for not taking their chance.  A cross in from Ku-DiPietro found the homegrown striker.  After a little bit of pinball Yapi settled the ball, turned, and shot.  It took a deflection and beat Burki for the 1-0 lead.  Yeah it wasn't pretty but its the type of shots we've been missing this season.  Too often we're looking for the extra pass or the perfect shot and sometimes you just need to put the ball on net and see what happens.

In the second half Hansen had to make a big save right after the break to keep the score level.  Other than that St. Louis had one other good look when Maxso had his ankles broken and left a wide open opportunity, but it was put over the bar.  Meanwhile bot Yapi and KDP forced good saves out of Burki.  In the end a 1-0 finish was an accurate representation of the game.

The starting lineup had a couple of new faces.  Sam Bassett subbed in for his missing brother and KDP took Cabral's spot in the XI.  IT worked fairly well.  Clearly Cole is better than Sam but Sam handled himself well and Ted should be a regular starter.  It makes you wonder if Cabral's time as a starter is finally done when a rookie homegrown gets the nod over him.  Mihailovic wasn't his normal self in the game, though he was still great, after the game Armas said that he was battling illness.  There's a suggestion that might be what kept Awaziem out too.

Quick turn around for a trip to Portland on Wednesday, but then due to the Club World Cup playoff between LAFC and Club America we get 10 days off until Austin comes to town.  Both green teams are in the muddled middle of the West with Colorado, so its a good chance to make a move over these two games.

Man of the Match: Darren Yapi.  Not just for the goal but also because he was creating dangerous chances all night.  For the first time it feel like he's settling in as a solid backup/second striker.