Yarbrough Stands On His Head To Get 3 Points

These are the type of games the Rapids usually lose.  Out possessed 54-46, outshot 22-7, outshot on goal 7-2, out cornered 6-4, and yet the final score was Colorado 2, Cincinnati 0.  Part of that was making sure Cinci didn't get high percentage shots, but a lot of it was Yarbrough's great night.  Against another, better, team we probably don't get all 3 points but the Rapids did what they needed to do on a hot and humid night on the road, which is all you can ask for.

Random Thoughts:

• Really the expected goals for this match is crazy.  FCC had an xG of 2.1, Colorado had 0.4.  That is a bit deceptive though as almost a full goal of Cinci's expected goals came off of Locadia's miss in the 93rd minute, a shot that even had it been scored wouldn't have been in time to change the outcome.
• Somehow both Rubio's and Lewis' goals had just over a 10% chance of being scored, which makes me question how they determine that a bit.  Lewis seemed orders of magnitude harder than Rubio's.
• When I saw the lineup I thought Fraser had out-thought himself again, going back to the 5-3-2/3-5-2 that was disastrous against LAFC.  Putting 6 defenders out against one of the worst offenses in the league seemed unnecessary.  But it worked.  We saw an improvement in the defensive marking compared to the mess in the LAFC game.  Cinci still got hits shots, lots of them, but Yarbrough bailed out the defense when those shots were too good.
• I was surprised at the halftime subs of Rubio and Barrios for Benezet and Lewis, until I w as reminded that our next game against KC is on Wednesday, not next Saturday.  In that way the lineup decisions worked even more in our favor.  We take a defensive stance on the road, get an early goal against a bad offense, and then can sit back and conserve energy while defending.  The second goal takes the weight off even further.
• That said, it could have easily backfired.  Cinci came quite close to making a game of this.
• You could tell Fraser was worried it might be getting away from us as he put the closer, Drew Moor, in with 20 minutes to play instead of closer to 5 like normal (also getting Abubakar some rest for Wednesday).  It worked as the game settled down and then Lewis scored 2 minutes later.  
• Outside of the goal Lewis and Benezet did very little.  I don't know if that was the game plan with how we were sitting back or if it was poor play, but we need more, especially from Benezet.
• I didn't know we were allowed to sub Sam Vines out.  Does he even know how to come off during a game?  This was the first time in a competitive match for the Rapids that Vines started but did not finish the game.
• With the Rapids at 2 points a game through this point in the season that means the Bodmer line is now at 1.08 pts/game.  A reminder, the Bodmer Line (named after former Class VI Grand Poobah Mark Bodmer, who suggested it to me) is the number of points per game the Rapids need to earn over the rest of the season to get to the average number of points the last playoff team (the 7th placed team) has had in a 34 game season (the seasons from 2011-2019).  That average is between 43 and 44, so the target is 44.
• Interesting note, if you take the 2020 results and use the PPG of the 7th placed teams to figure out how many points they would have had in a 34 game season and include those in the average it raises the average a bit but not over 44.
• Next up, SKC on Wednesday in KC.  KC is 2nd on points but 5th on PPG.  Colorado is 3rd on points but 2nd on PPG (and 3rd overall in the league).  A big measuring stick to sew where we're at against a top team.
• Not related to this game but there are reports from Chile that Colo-Colo has their sights set on brining Diego Rubio home.  Rubio got his professional debut with his childhood team in 2010 and apparently he was hoping to go on loan there during the offseason but FIFA regulations got in the way.  However a Santiago newspaper is reporting that Colo-Colo doesn't have the funds to pay a notable transfer fee for Rubio and with him under contract through next season its unlikely the Rapids will let him go cheap.  So this may be a lot of talk by Colo-Colo so their fans think they're trying, but with no intention of following through.  Something long time Rapids fans might be familiar with.
• That said, if we can get 7 figures (especially if its not just $1M) for him, we should sell.

Man of the Match:  William Yarbrough.  This is a no brainer.  Had a couple of huge saves.  Went down hard in the second half and Irwin was getting ready to sub in but he shrugged off the knock, let Abubaker take the ensuing goal kick while he walked it off, and then stoned Cincinnati almost immediately after.  There are some fans who think there's no difference between Yarbrough and Irwin, but after a match like that there's a clear #1 and #2.