Expansion Draft and Reviewing Predictions

First up, we got the news on who the  Rapids left unprotected in tomorrow's expansion draft.  One thing I didn't realize in making my predictions last week is that Auston Trusty is no longer on a homegrown contract but he still counts as a homegrown for automatic protection in the expansion draft.  So that would allow one more additional protected player, which I would have used on Danny Wilson.

Of the 12 protected players the Rapids and I agreed on 11 of them (Abubakar, Acosta, Barrios, Esteves, Galvan, Kaye, Lewis, Price, Rosenberry, Trusty, and Yarbrough).  The one place we disagreed was that I would have protected Rubio, and the Rapids chose to protect Shinyashiki instead.

Given the rumors out of Chile that Colo-Colo is interested in Rubio I find this an interesting move.  Either the Rapids don't think those rumors amount to anything and are happy to risk losing Rubio's large contract in the draft, or there's a side-deal with Charlotte not to take him.  I can't image risking losing a transfer fee in the expansion draft.

If I had to bet Charlotte takes nobody, but if we do lose somebody its probably going to be Rubio or Irwin.  I say Irwin as I was reminded today that he's a Charlotte native, so the club might want to have a hometown guy on the roster.  We'll know tomorrow.

Secondly, its time for me to face the music.  Back at the beginning of the season (as I do every year) I made a number of predictions, and as I do every year its time to review them to see what I got right and what I didn't.

• Rapids are comfortably in a playoff spot (top 7 make playoffs this year) for most of the season and finish 5th, but they push hard for that 4th spot and a home playoff game

Well that was a miss, but it was a miss in a good way.  And in my defense, I didn't see any serious prediction from anyone that had the Rapids higher than 5th.

• Because of that they surprise the 4th placed team in the playoffs and win on the road, but fall in the next round

Can I take credit for predicting the Rapids would lose in the conference semifinals?  No?  Half a point?  Half a point. 

• The do stumble a bit out of the gate which means they don't qualify for one of the 8 MLS spots in the USOC

N/A as once again, actually the day after I made the prediction, the USOC was cancelled

• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup again, despite 2 of 3 being played in Utah

No #$#%#! comment

• Rubio wins the team Golden Boot with double-digit goals

Rubio didn't win it, and the winner didn't have double-digit goals.  Clear miss.

• Namli is the team MVP (yes, same prediction as last year)

Ah....no.   (It was Price)

• Vines repeats as defensive player of the year

I think if he had stayed all season this would have been accurate, given that Vines + Trusty at LB might have been our DotY.  But a miss.

• One but only one American starter is sold in the summer window (extra credit prediction, its Bassett)

Nailed it, but missed the extra credit

• The Rapids add an international player in the summer window, but not a major blockbuster player on paper

Hello Lucas Esteves

• Mayaka will not be in the Rookie of the Year conversation despite being picked as the consensus #1 before the draft

Well I nailed that one, though I expected more than we got out of him (which was nothing at the first team level)

• The other 6 playoff teams in the West will be LAFC, Seattle, Portland, SKC, Minnesota, and San Jose

4 out of 6 (5 out of 7 when you include the Rapids)?  I'm going to call that good enough to give me a point.

• Acosta and Vines get National Team callups during the season, Lewis and Trusty do not.  I'm pushing on Bassett getting a callup or not

Ok, Lewis did get 1 appearance at the Gold Cup but otherwise I got these right.  Counting it. 

So that's a generous 5.5 points out of 11.  A severe regression from my 8 of 11 in 2020.  Not a good year for me, but a great year for the Rapids.

For the rest of this week we can expect news on the expansion, waiver, and re-entry drafts, and the schedule and CCL draw on Wednesday.  I have a busy week of family obligations with the holidays though, so don't be surprised if you don't see a lot about those  right away.  I'll try to get any news up quickly (like if we lose/add anyone in the drafts, or our CCL opponent) but analysis of the moves or the schedule may not come until this weekend sometime.