Instead lets see what we need to do going into the final weekend. Last week starting with the win over Vancouver was big, and the draw in San Jose was a solid result. I really only expected us to get 2 points in the last 4 games so getting 4 put us in good standing...until Saturday. The Chicago loss combined with other results has us teetering on the edge of the playoffs.
We're currently in the final playoff spot, coming in second in the three way tie with Seattle and Portland. Portland wins on total wins and goal differential while Seattle loses with one less win. That makes one thing simple.
WIN: and we're in
A win in Dallas and we're in the playoffs regardless of what happens elsewhere. The problem is that Dallas is the #2 team in the West and we're bad on the road. Oh, and Dallas needs a least a point to lock down the 2 seed. So the reality is the other scenarios are more likely. Lets get into them.
If we draw in Dallas that puts us on 44 points and jumps us from 9th to 7th before we consider other results. But.
The Galaxy play FSL. If the Galaxy don't lose they'll jump back over us at 45 points. If FSL wins they'll jump us at 45 points. Either way one of them is passing us. So the best we can do is 8th, and if two other teams pass us we're out. But there are only 2 other teams that could pass us with a draw, Seattle and Portland. Seattle is hosting LAFC, who is locked into the 6 spot no matter what happens, and Portland is at eliminated Austin. In other words neither of their opponents have anything to play for. Despite that, one of them would have to get a result.
DRAW: Portland must lose or Seattle must draw or lose
And now the worst case scenario. We lose in Dallas. At that point the Galaxy are guaranteed to finish ahead of us, which only leaves us two spots we could claim. There are 4 other teams who could claim those sports. If any more than one of them does, we're out. So we would need at least three other results to survive if we lose. That means Minnesota hosting San Jose,, who's trying to catch Dallas, comes into play.
LOSS: At least three of the following four things must happen:
- Seattle loses
- FSL loses
- Minnesota loses or draws
- Portland loses by more goals than Colorado loses by
Also if you're wondering, the only way to avoid the wild-card match is a win, the Galaxy losing or drawing, and Portland winning by less than we win by, drawing, or losing
Right now the odds are favoring Seattle, Portland, FSL, and Minnesota to win, along with Dallas (though they do think us winning is more likely than a draw).
Needless to say things are stacked against us this weekend. I think its more likely we beat Dallas than we draw or lose and get the other results we need. Though I think the most likely outcome is that we draw or lose and miss the playoffs.
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