Season Ends On Final Kick Saturday Night

For 90+ minutes the Rapids did just enough in an ugly game to get the 3 points they needed to stay in the playoff race.  Then once again, like we've seen all season, the defense switched off for a second, the opposing team took advantage, and now realistically the season is over (we'll get back to that conclusion).  In this case it was, once again, Esteves who switched off.  He took two steps outside to cover empty space while his man moved inside to the ball.  Danny Wilson, now overloaded with two men to cover followed the ball.  Drew Moor dropped off to take Wilson's extra man, leaving a wide open hole in the middle for Ferreira's shot to fly through to tie the goal.  Abubakar was also defending space instead of stepping up.  Sound familiar?

Other than that there's not much to talk about the game.  A nice strike by Lalas early in the second half to g get the lead but otherwise it was a game the ref called very tightly leading to little flow and a lot of back and forth in midfield.  Outside of the goals the teams combined for 5 shots on target, and the goal was the Dynamo's only shot on goal of the second half.

So, lets talk about why I'm calling the season over.  Currently the Rapids sit at 32 points with 8 games to play.  They are on pace for 42 points.  The average number of points for the 7th placed team in a 34 game season is 44 points (the so-called Bodmer Line).  538's projections has Seattle as the 7th placed team with 45 points.  Since 2018 (not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 season) the 7th placed team has had 48 points.

So we know the Rapids will likely need somewhere between 12 and 18 points in the last 8 games to make the playoffs.  Their remaining schedule is three home games and five road games.  If Colorado wins all 3 of their home games they'll still need 3-9  road points in those 5 games.  Right now, after 12 road games, the Rapids have earned 6 points.  They have trips to two of the top three teams in the league (Philly & Austin), two mid-tier teams in a playoff spot, one of which already beat us at home (Nashville & the Galaxy), and the probable Wooden Spoon winner (DC).  If they pull off the win in DC, no gimme given our road  play, and maybe they get draws in Nashville and Carson, that gets them 5 points.

But that's only part of the battle.  The rest of it is winning those 3 home games.  That's a game against San Jose (currently 1 point ahead of Houston and 5 points behind Colorado, Vancouver (2 points ahead of Colorado, and just beat us somewhat convincingly on Wednesday), and Dallas (10 points ahead of the Rapids and trying to clinch a home playoff game).  Can we really expect a team that couldn't close out Houston to win all 3 of those games?

And one last piece of the puzzle.  The Rapids have this week off, then will go to Philly, Nashville, and DC in a week.  Then they'll have another 7 days off and they'll host SJ, Vancouver, and go to Carson in a week.  6 games in 20 days, 4 on the road.

So IF Colorado can get a draw and a win on the road in 3 days, coming off a probable loss in Philly 4 days earlier, and IF they can win back-to-back home games in 4 days and follow it up with a draw 72 hours later in Carson, then they can host Dallas knowing a win over a team fighting for a top playoff spot would likely put them in the playoffs.  If not, then they can go on the road to one of the top teams in the league on Decision Day and hope Austin has everything wrapped up and nothing to play for.

To me, that's a pretty unrealistic set of circumstances.  For all intents and purposes, our season ended on that Houston goal.  We should play the kids the rest of the way and plan for 2023.

Man of the Match:  Nobody.  In a must win game everyone was so flat its not worth giving the award out.