As The MLS Bubble Turns

I hope everyone enjoyed the holiday weekend as Denver blew up half of Wyoming's inventory of fireworks.  We had some significant developments around the MLS Is Back tournament in the last 36 hours.

Sunday the Rapids were scheduled to fly to Orlando, until they weren't.  The final round of tests conducted on Friday returned two positive tests, which meant that nobody could fly yesterday and the whole travelling group had to be retested.  Yesterday the Rapids sent out an official update that the team would fly down tomorrow (Tuesday).

That lasted about 24 hours until news broke that the team was back at the Dick this afternoon preparing to leave, and sure enough they did.  When they reach Walt Disney World tonight they'll be the final team to enter the MLS bubble in Orlando.  This evening the team sent out another official update saying the team had gotten the results of the tests from yesterday back and everyone tested negative.  The two people that tested positive yesterday still stayed in Denver and will join the team in Orlando once they have a second negative test returned after at least 24 hours.

Once that news came out the big news of the day broke, that FC Dallas has been withdrawn from the tournament by MLS due to having 10 players test positive since they reached Orlando.  Even after having rescheduled their first game it was determined that it was not viable to have them try to compete.  MLS has not yet announced how the tournament will change to deal with this missing team or how Dallas will make up the three group stage games that are meant to count towards the regular season standings.

That may be because there's more to come.  There are reports that Nashville has 5 to 8 members of their party that have tested positive.  If accurate that may lead to them needing to be removed from the tournament as well, which would leave the league with a much easier 6 groups of 4 teams to deal with.

I said it last week, and I still feel that this tournament is a bad idea at this time.  The best move is just to end it now.

2nd Rapid Tests Positive For COVID

The Rapids announced today that a second player has tested positive for COVID-19.  At this point there is no organized training going on and everyone is isolating from each other.  That will likely continue up to close ton the departure for the tournament next weekend.  Whomever this is will likely not be able to travel with the team and I don't know if the rules allow a player joining the team in the Orlando bubble later or not.

That assumes this tournament actually takes place of course.  With the climbing numbers around the country, and particularly in Florida, I've come to the conclusion it shouldn't.  Clearly the country isn't ready to return to something resembling normalcy and the visual of playing games down the road from overflowing hospitals is not a good one.  Even if they could make it safe for everyone involved in the tournament you're still asking a bunch of Disney employees to take care of the teams in Florida when they don't need to be doing that.

The best move for MLS is to step back, reschedule, and take another run at this in a month or so.

Good and Bad News About MLS Is Back Tournament

So we got the MLS is Back Tournament schedule today.  Here's when the Rapids will be playing (all times MT):

• July 12th - 8:30pm - ESPN vs. FSL
• July 17th, - 6pm - ESPN - SKC
• July 22nd - 8:30pm - ESPN - Minnesota

That's a really good schedule given the constraints.  All evening games, well spaced out, and we get what, IMO, is the weakest team in the group first while the two stronger teams have to battle each other.  I think 7 points is a good expectation right now, with the draw not coming against FSL.

That's the good news.  The bad news is that the team announced today that a player has tested positive for COVID-19.  The player's name was not released out of respect for his privacy, and no other players or staff have tested positive.  The player is asymptomatic at this time.  The test came as part of the mandatory testing the team went through yesterday.  The player is now isolating himself but as part of the process the team has gone back to individual training and will not be able to train as a unit for a while until more tests are completed.

My best wishes go out to the player and his family, as well as the rest of the team, for a quick recovery and hopefully no spreading of the virus to anyone else.

"Random" Draw Generates a Very Fixed Result

Today's "random" draw for the "MLS Return to Play tournament" sure had a feel of predestination about it.  I have no evidence to say it was fixed, but the results were very favorable to what MLS would want.

To start the draw MLS announced that Inter Miami was going to be drawn into Orlando's group to make the first game of the tournament a Florida rivalry game.  Everything esle was random.  The Rapids ended up in group D with FSL (seeded, as one of the top teams in 2019), SKC, and Minnesota.  On top of the Rocky Mountain Cup rivalry each of the other groups "randomly" ended up with one known recognized rivalry.  The aforementioned Orlando-Miami matchup in Group A, Seattle-Vancouver in Group B, Toronto-Montreal in Group C, Cincinnati-Columbus in Group E, and LA-LAFC in Group F.  On top of that Philly and NYCFC, two close rivals, ended up in Group A as well, San Jose ended up with two other of the teams they have a minor Heritage Cup competition with (Seattle/Vancouver), adn SKC got their budding rivalry with FSL and what the league has attempted to turn into a rivalry with Minnesota.

Again, there's no evidence to say it was fixed, but the way they did the draw (with a former player having loaded the teams into numbered balls and then a member from each of the seeded teams picking a ball by number, and the convenient results certainly raised a few eyebrows.

Regardless, what's done is done.  We're still waiting to hear the schedule, but we can look at our opponents.  On paper the Rapids got the toughest group based on the two games already played in 2020, with all three undefeated Western Conference teams, plus FSL.  I think group F, with Portland, Houston, and the LA teams is actually a bit harder, but either way its a tough group.  That said, we should be able to get out of it.  I expect 6-7 points, depending on the schedule.  We can beat FSL, and we should beat Minnesota.  SKC will be the tough match depending on when it falls.  If we're both on 6 going into the last match facing each other (and thus both qualified for the knockout rounds) that might make it a bit easier, if its the first match it will be tougher.

Back MLS Is!

Sorry to go all Yoda with the headline, but I can only take so many "MLS Is Back" headlines in one day.  This morning MLS officially announced the long rumored and very leaked Orlando tournament.  The tournament will start on June 8th and run through August 11th, World Cup style.  7 groups of 4 teams and one group of 6, with the top two in each group and 4 of third placed team moving on to the 16-team knockout round.  Every team will play 3 group stage games that will count in the regular season standings.  The knockout stage games will not count in the standings.  MLS also said they expect to continue the regular season in some format back in home markets after the tournament, with playoffs and MLS Cup to follow.

We'll know the schedule of games and opponents after tomorrow's draw at 1:30, with the TV announcement coming shortly after that.  We know games will be at 7am, 6pm, and 8:30pm MT and all games will be nationally televised on ESPN, FOX, and/or Univision.  Which is good news, because the Altitude-Comcast/DISH dispute won't get in the way of fans seeing the games.  For the first 16(?) days there will be 3 games a day, much like the World Cup, with no games overlapping.

For the Rapids, it has reported that Galvan will be joining the team just before the tournament starts.  Also, following up on yesterday's news, apparently Ford's surgery was to replace a drain in his knee which is commonly done every couple of weeks with his condition.  That doesn't indicate he'll be ready to play any time soon, but its good news they aren't doing new work on the knee.

Also the Committee of 10, who organizes the Rocky Mountain Cup, has announced that any games between the Rapids and FSL in Florida will not count towards the 2020 Rocky Mountain Cup.  They said that they will wait for the post-tournament regular season plans to be announced before determining if and how the Cup will be awarded for 2020.

Full transparency, I am a member of the Committee of 10