Jasper Löffelsend Selected In Expansion Draft

Surprisingly just a few minutes ago Jasper Löffelsend was selected by San Diego FC in the expansion draft.  This won't be that much of a loss for the Rapids.  With Bassett, Larraz, Ronan, and talk that they're looking for a 6, playing time was going to hard to come by for Jasper.  He made 18 appearances last season but never really stood out.

Colorado will receive $50K in GAM for losing a player.  We originally gave up an international slot last year, our 2nd round pick in next week's draft (which we replaced with Philly's) and up to $100K in GAM based on performance.  My bet is that we didn't pay out more than $50K of that so we probably broke fairly even on the GAM and we didn't need the international slot.  So really we gave up a 2nd round pick to take a one year flyer on him.  No harm, no foul.

Expansion Draft List. Maxso Leaving?, and CCC Draw

Ok, we got a lot of news today.  First of all the team made the trade with Philly for their draft picks official.  They also released their protected list for the expansion draft and its a bit different than I predicted, largely because the roster designations on the league website weren't accurate.

The first miss was on me, I didn't notice that Mihailovic just turned 26 which made him ineligible for automatic protection.  But homegrowns Vines and Fernandez also didn't qualify for some (currently unknown) reason.  Neither did Calvin Harris who's still listed as a Generation Adidas player but apparently graduated from the program.  However Kimani Stewart-Baynes, who's not listed as a GA actually is so he was automatically protected and Travis who isn't listed as an HG actually is.

Along with that the trade yesterday meant we wanted to find room to protect Awaziem and Murphy.  So in the end the protected list looks like this (* - automatically protected)

GK: Steffen, Beaudry*

D: Chidozie Awaziem, Reggie Cannon, Ian Murphy, Keegan Rosenberry, Sam Vines, Seb Anderson*, Michael Edwards*, Jackson Travis*

M: Wayne Frederick, Djordje Mihailovic, Connor Ronan, Cole Bassett*, Oli Larraz*

F: Kévin Cabral, Calvin Harris, Rafael Navarro, Kimani Stewart-Baynes*, Darren Yapi*

That leaves Ethan Bandré , Lalas Abubakar, Daniel Chacón, Nate Jones, Andreas Maxsø , Omir Fernandez, Jasper Löffelsend, Rémi Cabral, and Jonathan Lewis unprotected.  Douda Amadou's contract doesn't become a full MLS contract until 2025 so he's ineligible to be selected.

The surprises on that list I think are Maxso and Fernandez, maybe Jones.  I wouldn't have expected Fredrick to be protected over Fernandez.  If we lose anyone I'd expect it to be him.

Maxso being unprotected is a combination of our new defenders and the other piece of news that dropped today.  Tom Bogert reported that the Rapids are in discussions with a Middle East team to transfer Maxso and apparently he wants the move.  So really all we're risking is losing on a possible transfer fee if San Diego takes him and I'm betting there's an understanding that won't happen.  

Maxso has been an above average MLS defender but he never stood out to the level of his big DP signing when he first arrived.  I was also told he was a Fraser choice more than a Smith/Taylor choice and with the new coaching staff its probably a good time for everyone to move on.  He was an ironman, playing every minute of all 43 competitive games last season, and I have nothing but positive things to say about him, but I also don't think he's irreplaceable.

With his likely departure that means we still need a CB, either somebody to play nest to Awaziem or if we're going to go with Murphy as a starter somebody to fill the Abubakar reliable backup position.  So instead of filling two spots with yesterday's trade we've really only filled one.

Lastly the CONCACAF Champions Cup draw was held tonight and out of the 11 teams we could have ended up drawn against we got...LAFC.  *yawn*  A team we see regularly.  Pretty boring and shades of the 2018 competition and getting drawn against TFC.  Even though we're the lower seeded team we'll play Leg 1 in LA and Leg 2 here in Colorado, which will get us an additional 2 weeks closer to Spring before we host.  The home game will be a Tuesday or Wednesday in the second half of February with the road match two weeks earlier.

Expansion Draft tomorrow but I'll probably only post something if somebody from the Rapids actually gets selected.  Then on Thursday its the opening of free agency and end-of year waivers, with Round 1 of the Re-Entry Draft on Friday.  

Roster Review and Expansion Draft Prediction

Ok, time to get to the nitty gritty of the roster.  Colorado has one player out of contract and 10 players in an option year.  Decisions will be made on the options players by tomorrow in advance of the expansion draft on December 11th.

The only player fully out of contract in Jonathan Lewis.  I expect that the Rapids won't be too upset about losing him.  They may give him a contract offer a a low number ($200K max) to make it clear he's coming back as a backup but they may just let him go without a new offer.

The 9 players who are on a option year:

GK - Ethan Bandre

D - Lalas Abubakar

D - Seb Anderson

D - Michael Edwards

D - Nate Jones

D - Miguel Navarro

D - Keegan Rosenberry

M - Remi Cabral

M - Calvin Harris

M - Oli Larraz

If you're wondering who Miguel Navarro is, we traded for him last offseason and then once we signed Vines we sent him on loan to Talleres in Argentina.  Apparently he's become a key component of the team down there and there's an option to purchase in the loan agreement so I expect a deal to get done transferring him there permanently.

I think its obvious that the team won't pick up Abubakar at his current number.  I think this might surprise some people but I don't think we pick up Rosenberry at his current number.  I know he's the team captain but I don't think the team signs Reggie Cannon, who's most natural spot is right back, if they planned to keep Rosenberry as a starter.

I do expect that both Lalas and Keegan will be offered contracts at a reduced number as they can be valuable stop starters and options off the bench but neither of them should be starting even half the games next season.  My guess is that Rosenberry can find a bigger role at another team in the league and moves on.

As to the rest of the group I can see all the options being exercised.  Larraz is a no-brainer.  Armas seems to like Harris so even though he hasn't nailed down a starting role I expect we bring him back for another season.  If for no other reason than to keep Kevin happy I think we pick up Remi's option, though has had a good year in Phoenix so I think he's earned it on his own.  For Bandre, Anderson Edwards, and Jones we have little or nothing to go on.  Edwards and Anderson have looked good in their limited minutes and at their numbers I think they come back.  I thought Jones might be the odd man out given that we only gave him a one year deal and we didn't see him at all this season but the reports since the end of the season are that the coaches are quite happy with his play with Rapids 2.  Bandre I have no idea but I assume we'll bring him back.

Once these decisions are made we move on to the expansion draft for San Diego.  The newcomers will get to choose 5 players from across the league, no more than one from any team.  Teams will get to protect 12 players and their under 26 year old Homegrowns and Generation Adidas players will be automatically protected.  For the Rapids that means the following are protected:

Calvin Harris - GA, Seb Anderson - HG, Cole Bassett - HG, Adam Beaudry - HG, Michael Edwards - HG, Omir Fernandez - HG, Oli Larraz - HG, Djordje Mihailovic - HG, Sam Vines - HG, Darren Yapi - HG

(Yes, Mihailovic still counts as an HG apparently)

So with the additional 12 protected slots this is who I predict the Rapids will protect.  I want to emphasize that this is who I predict they'll protect, not who I would protect if it were up to me.

The top 9 are obvious:

Zack Steffen

Keegan Rosenberry

Reggie Cannon

Andreas Maxso

Jackson Travis

Kevin Cabral

Conner Ronan

Rafael Navarro

After that it gets a little harder.  How much do they want Abubakar to come back on a lesser deal?  Same with Lewis.  Fernandez?  Remi Cabral?  Miguel Navarro (assuming they don't get a deal done before then)?.

My guess for the last 3 would be Fernandez, Remi Cabral, and Navarro if they need to do it to protect the transfer fee.  If they don't then he'd be replaced with Stewart-Baynes.

If it were me I'd consider leaving Kevin Cabral and Maxso unprotected.  The odds of San Diego taking on their contacts is pretty low and if they do take one of them that's a large contract off our books.  I doubt the Rapids are thinking that way, if for no other reason than the message it would send to those players.

Bassett Returning?

Before we get tot he Bassett news/rumor I want to mention that, as expected, no Rapids were taken in today's expansion draft.

Now, this report out of the Netherlands via 1908.nl states that the Rapids are likely to exercise their recall option in Cole Bassett's loan this winter.  When the new deal was created between Feyenoord, Fortuna Sittard, and the Rapids to allow Bassett to move to Fortuna Sittard this fall, it included a clause that if he didn't reach a minimum number of minutes/appearances before the end of the year the Rapids would have the right to terminate the loan and bring him home.  This report states that according to sources Colorado is preparing to do just that.

As much as this probably sucks for Cole, it makes a ton of sense for him and the Rapids.  If he's not getting minutes he's losing valuable development time on the bench.  At 21 years old he needs to be playing and not riding the pine.  Colorado has a need in midfield and he knows the system and most of the players so he should be able to slot right back in.  He gave it a full calendar year in the Netherlands with two different teams and couldn't break in as a regular starter.  He still has two years on his Rapids contract.  Time to come back, hit it hard for a MLS season, and hope for another shot in Europe next offseason.

Roster And Expansion Draft News, Finally

With the expansion draft coming tomorrow the Rapids finally released their end-of-year roster news and their protected list for the draft.  Starting with the roster moves:

Options picked up: Barrios, Keita, Larraz, Markanich, Rodriguez, Rubio

Options declined: Beitashour, Edwards, Mayaka

Out of contract: Irwin, Zardes

Loans expired: Esteves, Gutierrez

Everyone else is under contract for 2023.  Colorado is negotiating with Zardes, Edwards, and Beitashour about coming back in 2023 under different terms than their options.  They're also talking to Gutierrez about coming back but that would either be a new loan or paying a transfer fee for him.  The Rapids have until December 1st to decide if they want to exercise their buy option in Esteves loaned, reported to be $1M for 50% of his rights,

Really the only surprise here for me is cutting bait on Mayaka after just two seasons, and being in position to do so.  Normally a Generation Adidas contract is longer than that, and generally the league invests more into those players.  In the 2021 draft Mayaka was seen by most commentators as the "most MLS ready" player in the draft, yet the two players taken in front of him (Daniel Pereira and Calvin Harris) have a combined 79 appearances in 2 years and Mayaka has 0.  I can tell you that the Rapids did not buy the "most ready player" line and when they moved up to third in that draft it was with the belief that Mayaka was going to be selected by Austin or Cincinnati in front of them and they made the move expecting Harris to be available, but they ranked Pereira ranked ahead of Mayaka as well.

This is not to suggest that I think the Rapids are making a mistake moving on from him.  From what little I've seen of the Switchbacks and Rapids 2 the last two years he did not stand out, and the reports from people who followed those teams more closely were that he did not look particularly good playing at that level.  He also requires an international slot, so it makes it hard to keep him as an on-going project if they're not seeing improvement.

Outside of that I think I called the rest of these moves except Barrios, who I wanted to see brought back on a lower contract.  And I still don't want to see us spending $1M on Esteves.

Now that we know who's here and who's not, we can figure out the expansion protected list.  Because of the end of his GA contract Mayaka i not automatically protected, but we obviously won't be prtecting him.  The 12 we did protect:

Yarbrough, Abubakar, Rosenberry, Vallecilla, Acosta, Price, Max, Galvan, Barrios, Lewis, Nicholson, Rubio

Along with our auto-protected players:

Rodrigues, Anderson, Edwards, Keita, Travis, Bassett, Larraz, Priso, Toure, Yapi

That leaves these 10 players available in tomorrow's expansion draft:

Irwin, Beitashour, Esteves, Moor, Markanich, Wilson, Gutierrez, Mayaka, Warner, Zardes

I went 10 for 12 on my expansion draft picks.  I protected Zardes and Markanich over Acosta and Nicholson.  After further thought Acosta probably makes more sense than Zardes because as a free agent the only thing St. Louis can get out of selecting Zardes is a little more freedom to offer him more money, which would be a waste of a pick.  I don't think Acosta is at any risk of being picked but its still more likely than Zardes.

Nicholson over Markanich makes no sense to me though, as Sam looked like a shell of himself this season and I can't imagine St. Louis taking a flyer on him.  Markanich at least has the benefit of being young and showing a few flashes this season.  Honestly though I look at those 10 players and think "there's got to be better options elsewhere".  I predict this will be the seventh straight expansion draft that a Rapid is not picked (Cascio and Mwanga in 2014 were the last ones).

Expansion Draft Time

St. Louis is joining MLS next season, which means its time for yet another expansion draft, and yet another set of protected player lists.  So, time for me to take my best swing at who I think we'll protect.

The rules are the same as last year.  Teams can protect 12 players, and their homegrown and Generation Adidas players 25 years old or younger are automatically protected.  Teams can lose at most one player in the 5 picks St. Louis will make, and anyone who lost a player to Charlotte is not part of this expansion draft (Colorado didn't lose anyone).  Teams must protect at least 3 international players unless they have less than 3, then they must protect all but 1 (and auto-protected HG's/GA's don't count).

So for the Rapids, first our auto-protected players:

Seb Anderson, Cole Bassett*, Michael Edwards, Aboubacar Keita, Ollie Larraz, Phillip Mayaka, Ralph Priso, Abe Rodriguez, Yaya Toure, Jackson Travis, Darren Yapi

* - I assume Bassett's homegrown status means he's still automatically protected.  If he's not for some reason he clearly becomes one of our 12 protected players.

So after that group we have to protect 3 internationals, and honestly I only want to protect 3:

Max - As disappointing as he was, it would be stupid to give away a million dollar asset.

Brain Galvan - He's an exciting young player who will hopefully bounce back from his ACL injury

Jack Price - I mean, duh

That leaves us with 9 more slots to fill:

Lalas Abubakar - He may be frustrating at times but he's our best central defender and would be an easy choice for St. Louis if he were unprotected

Michael Barrios - I don't want to pick up his option, but if we could bring him back at a lower number I'd want to have his rights

Jonathan Lewis - Too much potential value to leave unprotected

Anthony Markanich - He's a young player that showed a bit of potential

Keegan Rosenberry - Obviously

Diego Rubio - Duh

William Yarbrough - Another obvious choic

After this group there's two open slots, but not two obvious players I want to protect.  So I'm going to go with these two but only for lack of a better choice:

Gustavo Vallecilla - Just to protect the money we put into getting him

Gyasi Zardes - I've heard that the payment to the Crew if we re-sign him only kicks in (or maybe only kicks in at 100%) if we sign him to a 3 year deal.  I'd consider re-signing him for a 1+1 deal at sum $1M if he'd take it, so we should protect our opportunity to do that if that report is accurate.

With this the unprotected players are:

Bryan Acosta, Steven Beitashour, Lucas Esteves, Felipe Gutierrez, Clint Irwin, Drew Moor, Sam Nicholson, Collen Warner, Danny Wilson

I don't seed anyone in that list St. Louis is likely to select that would hurt us if they were claimed.  Some of them would actually help us if St. Louis picked them up.

No Rapids Taken In The Expansion Draft

The Rapids escaped being hurt by the expansion draft again this year.

Expansion draft coming

In 2022 we add Charlotte FC to the league, which means yet another expansion draft is coming.  The draft will be next Tuesday, December 14th.  The rules this time around are that Charlotte gets 5 picks, they can't pick more than one player from a team, and the teams that lost players to Austin last year are exempt from the draft this year.

The Rapids can protect 12 players, plus every homegrown player under 25 or under and ever y Generation Adidas player.  The roster is everyone on the team at the end of the season, regardless of contract status.  However players out of contract (in the Rapids case, Badji, Beitashour, and Moor) hold no real benefit to Charlotte in picking them as they are still free to sign anywhere they want.  Players who's options were declined however are valuable because Charlotte can pick them, but I believe they have to pick up their option year to do it.

In last year's expansion draft Beitashour, Mezquida, Moor, Rawls, and Warner were left unprotected.

Automatically protect on the Rapids roster are: Seb Anderson, Cole Bassett, Michael Edwards, Kortne Ford, Matt Hundley, Ollie Larraz, Phillip Mayaka (Generation Adidas), Abe Rodriguez, Yaya Toure, Will Vint, and Darren Yapi.

The notable name not on that list is Kellyn Acosta, who is now too old to be automatically protected as a homegrown player.

Given that, here's my prediction/suggestion on who will be protected by the Rapids:

Lalas Abubakar, Kellyn Acosta, Michael Barrios, Lucas Esteves, Brain Galvan, Mark-Anthony Kaye, Jonathan Lewis, Jack Price, Keegan Rosenberry, Diego Rubio, Auston Trusty, and William Yarbrough.

But the expansion draft is as much about who you leave unprotected and why as it is who you protect.  I think the above are all obvious choices but I want to explain my reasoning on who I didn't protect:

Badji, Beitashour, & Moor all have the same reasoning.  Charlotte doesn't get anything out of selecting them, unless they think being left unprotected upsets the player enough to want to turn down any offer from Colorado and sign with Charlotte.  Beitashour and Moor were left unprotected last year and are still negotiating so that's clearly not an issue for them, and I can't see it being an issue for Badji.

Namli & Rawls - We've already said goodbye to them, no need to protect them

Clint Irwin - I think we saw this year he's the solid #2 in net, and you just can't justify protecting your #2 while leaving a more regular player unprotected.  There's an outside chance Charlotte could take him.

Jeremy Kelly - He's got some talent but is just a backup right now.  I can't see him being selected as one of the 5 picks by Charlotte.

Nicolas Mezquida - He's got a high number and is a bench player.  We're not even sure we're going to re-sign him.  He's not worth protecting because his loss wouldn't be that big of an impact.  I don't think Charlotte would be interested in him but it wouldn't be completely surprising.

Andre Shinyashiki - We have 3 forwards and we should protect at least one of them.  With Badji out of contract its either Rubio or Shinyashiki.  Neither one would be irreplaceable if Charlotte selected them, but there are hints of interest in Rubio from Chile.  That possible interest plus Diego being slightly more consistent makes him the choice to protect and Shinyashiki the one to leave exposed.  I wouldn't expect him to get taken though as I think forward is where Charlotte will spend money to bring in players instead of looking at the draft.

Collen Warner - I don't se an aging backup d-mid being somebody Charlotte is going to take.

Danny Wilson - This is the one difficult choice.  It really came down to protecting Rubio or Wilson and again, the interest from Chile made the difference.  I also think an international average MLS CB (at best) is an unlikely target for Charlotte but I won't say I feel confident they won't take a chance on Wilson.  But the reality is we have 13 players who aren't automatically protected that I wouldn't want to lose and only 12 slots.

2020 Expansion Draft

Austin FC is starting play in 2021, which means sometime this month (probably, maybe after the holidays) there will be an expansion draft.  So far there's been no report that the draft will differ in any significant way from the last couple of expansion drafts.  What that means is that the Rapids will likely be able to protect 12 players, their homegrown players 25 years old or younger (which is all of them) will be automatically protected on top of that, and they can't lose any more than 1 player to Austin.

Given that, lets try to figure out the best protected list.

First, here are the automatically protected homegrown players:

Kellyn Acosta (his homegrown status with Dallas transferred to Colorado), Seb Anderson, Cole 'Goal'  Bassett, Kortne Ford, Matt Hundley, Abe Rodriguez, Sam Vines, Will Vint

So after that group we have 12 other players we can protect.  First I'm going to go through the super-obvious ones that need no explanation:

Lalas Abubakar, Braian Galvan, Jonathan Lewis, Younes Namli, Jack Price, Keegan Rosenberry, Diego Rubio, and Andre Shinyashiki

So that leaves 4.  To me the next two are equally obvious but may need some explanation:

Auston Trusty - We spent a lot to get him and I think (and I'm sure the coaching staff thinks) he's still the likely starter next to Abubakar in the future.  He's worth way too much to let him get picked.

William Yarbrough - The Denver Post reported that we are working on bringing him back, and we know that almost every loan into MLS includes a buy clause.  The only questions are "Do the Rapids want to pay that much or are they going to try to renegotiate lower?" and if they are going to pay that much "Will Liga MX try to screw MLS on a buy clause again (see Castillo, Edgar)?".  Regardless we own his MLS right now and Austin could pick those rights up if we don't protect Yarbrough.  I think the risk of him getting picked is bigger than the reward of protecting somebody else.

That leaves the final two spots.  I could make a case for up to 5 players for those two slots, but I think they'll go with the two Nicolas, Benezet and Mezquida.  Benezet has a good amount of TAM invested in him and if he can get healthy is a likely starter.  Mezquida would be a nice young pickup for an expansion team and would be at risk of being picked.

The other three I thought about protecting were Clint Irwin, but I'm not sure Austin FC is going to want to use a pick on a guy who isn't a sure fire day one starter in goal, Drew Moor, but as valuable as his veteran leadership would be there's probably a real risk of Moor saying "I'm not interested in moving to Austin, I'm retiring" which would waste the pick for Austin, and Jeremy Kelly, who probably didn't show enough to be worth one of Austin's five picks but could be at risk in this scenario.

Assuming that Benezet and Mezquida are protected, that would leave the following unprotected:

Steven Beitashour, Clint Irwin, Niki Jackson, Jeremy Kelly, Drew Moor, Andre Rawls, Abdul Rwatubaye, Collen Warner, Danny Wilson, and Deklan Wynne

I would be willing to bet that Austin passes on that whole group, but if they pick somebody it would likely be Irwin or Kelly.

Expansion Draft Protected Lists Released

Today the league announced the protected and unprotected lists for Tuesday's expansion draft.  If you remember back in September when the rules were announced I made my predictions.  I got 10 of the 12 right, though with a caveat.  First though, to the list.

Protected automatically as a homegrown player 25 years old or younger:
Kellyn Acosta*, Sebastian Anderson, Cole Bassett, Kortne Ford, Matt Hundley, Sam Raben, Dillon Serna, Sam Vines

* - I predicted we'd protect Acosta because I forgot he was an homegrown player with Dallas and would automatically be protected

Protected by the team:
Clint Irwin, Kei Kamara, Jonathan Lewis, Nicolas Mezquida, Sam Nicholson, Jack Price, Andre Rawls, Keegan Rosenberry, Diego Rubio, Andre Shinyashiki, Tommy Smith, Deklan Wynne

Unprotected and could be selected in the draft:
Johan Blomberg, Tim Howard, Niki Jackson, Kofi Opare, Abdul Rwatubyaye, Axel Sjoberg, Danny Wilson

The two misses I had were protecting Rawls and Wynne, I thought Jackson and Rwatubyaye would be protected in their place.  I kind of understand Rawls, he's cheap and he saves you from having to find a replacement for a position you're satisfied with.  I'm really surprised at Wynne being protected though.  He doesn't seem to be in our plans going forward and while outside back is a hard position to fill he only cost us $100K in TAM to acquire two years ago, I can't imagine his value has changed significantly in that time, likely its gone down.  Its possible that Fraser sees something he can work with in Wynne though.

Otherwise all the other selections are pretty much self-explanatory.  The Rapids can lose at most 1 player from that group of  7, I predict they'll lose none.  If you're wondering why Blomberg and Howard show up on our unprotected list despite being out of contract and clearly done with MLS its because we keep their rights if we offer Blomberg a contract extension (we won't) or if Howard un-retires in a year (he won't) so in theory Miami or Nashivlle could select one of those two players and get their rights from us.  Neither team will do that though, but the possibility has to be accounted for.

Looking at the rest of the league's lists a number of former Rapids were left exposed, including Drew Moor in Toronto who is out of contract.  I'd be very tempted to try to sign him as a veteran leader for the defense if he's not selected by Gary Smith for Nashville in the draft.  Two other names of note are exposed, Edgar Castillo and Kelyn Rowe.  If you remember the Rapids traded Castillo for Rowe and then immediately traded Rose and $300k of funny money for Rubio.  Rowe was traded to FSL mid-season.  The Rapids made a steal in that deal, something they should get credit for.

Expansion Draft 2020

I know we're not through the season yet but the league just announced the rules for this year's expansion draft for Nashville and Miami entering the league next season.  In short:

• Each expansion team will get 5 picks
• No team can lose more than one player
• Teams that lost players to Cincinnati last year can't lose a player this year
• Teams can protect up to 12 of their players (an increase from the normal 11)
• Homegrown players 25 years old or younger and Generation Adidas players who have not graduated are automatically protected on top of the 12 protected players
• Teams must protect at least 3 internationals, unless they have 3 or less, then they have to protect at least all but one
• All players on the roster at the end of the season count as on the roster, even if they've already been told they're cut for 2020
• Retired players don't count but if a retired player is not protected the team loses their rights to them should they un-retire

So, based on that, here's my take on who the Rapids should protect, for a couple of different scenarios:

Automatically protected as homegrown players 25 years old or younger:

Anderson, Bassett, Ford, Hundley, Raben, Serna, Vines

Automatically protected as GA, if he doesn't graduate from the program:

Lewis

Required 3 internationals protected:

Mezquida, Price, Shinyashiki

Remaining 9 protected slots if we sign Abubakar before the draft:

Abubakar, Acosta, Irwin, Jackson, Kamara, Nicholson, Rosenberry, Rubio, Smith

Remaining 9 protected slots if we don't sign Abubakar before the draft:

Swap out Abubakar for Rwatubyaye

Remaining 9 protected slots if we sign Abubakar before the draft and Lewis graduates from GA:

Swap out Jackson for Lewis

Remaining 9 protected slots if we don't sign Abubakar before the draft and Lewis graduates from GA:

Swap out Abubakar for Lewis

This leaves the following players unprotected, and at most we could lose one of them to either Nashville or Miami: Blomberg, Howard, Opare, Rawls, Sjoberg, Wilson, Wynne, plus possibly Jackson and Rwatubyaye

I would say most of these decisions are self explanatory.  Blomberg is gone and Howard is retiring.  Opare, Rawls, and Wynne are MLS bench fodder where ever they play so there's no point in protecting them.  Sadly at this point Sjoberg falls into that category as well.  Wilson is just far too expensive for what he brings so there's no threat he'll be taken and if he were it would actually help us.

That leaves Jackson, Rwatubyaye, and, IMO, Smith as the three players fighting for the last 1-3 slots depending on the statuses of Abubakar and Lewis.  I ranked Smith as the most valuable because of a change in the expansion draft rules.  Smith is on a team option for 2020 and in the past if a player on a team option was selected in the expansion draft it meant that the expansion team was automatically exercising the player's option.  This year the rule changes and the expansion team can decline the option and keep the player's rights to renegotiate his contract.  That makes Smith more valuable if an expansion team thinks they can get him to take a lower number.

Jackson versus Rwatubyaye is a bit of a toss up but I prioritized Jackson as he has shown some ability to play in MLS, Rwatubyaye hasn't gotten a shot yet.

The expansion draft will be held on November 19th.

Expansion Protected List Released Today

The protected list for tomorrow's expansion draft for FC Cincinnati has been released, the Rapids protected:

• Kellyn Acosta
• Nana Boateng
• Marlon Hairston
• Tim Howard
• Niki Jackson
• Nicolas Mezquida/Zac MacMath (both were protected but its unclear which one was protected by the Rapids and who was protected by the Whitecaps)
• Sam Nicholson
• Jack Price
• Dillon Serna*
• Tommy Smith
• Deklan Wynne

and then automatically protected by their Homegrown Status are:

• Cole Bassett
• Kortne Ford
• Sam Vines

*Dillon Serna is a senior roster player now, so despite being a homegrown he's no longer automatically protected in an expansion draft and we must use a spot to protect him.

This leaves the following unprotected: Barnes, Blomberg, Boli, Calvert, Castillo, Colvey, Da Fonte, Dykstra, Gashi, Hamilton, Martinez, Sjoberg, Wilson.

I can't say there are any surprises here.  A bit of an eyebrow raise as Gashi being unprotected but that's probably a (safe) bet that Cincinnati won't want to take his DP contract on.  The only real question is protecting Boateng or Wynne over Sjoberg.

I expect Cinci is taking a long look at Sjoberg tonight but in the end will probably pass on all the available Rapids players.  I can't see them being interested in anyone other than Sjoberg from our unprotected list.  There are likely 5 better players for them elsewhere.

TAM, Affiliation, and Expansion Draft

There's been a few stories of note since Friday, so we'll go through them all in one post.

First, the league announced $1.2 million in Targeted Allocation Money (TAM) each of the next two years.  They also announced that each team could self-fund an additional $2.8 million in TAM each of the next two years.  Essentially they said that teams could spend up to $4 million on TAM players each of the next two years, and the league will cover the first $1.2 million of it.  To remind everyone, TAM is used to sign players that would normally be Designated Players but the TAM brings their salary below the salary max for a standard player.  Players signed with TAM have to have a total cost (salary+transfer fee) of $1.5 million or less and you can convert a DP to a TAM player but you must sign a new DP player to replace him.

This is not great news for traditionally low-spending/small-market teams, like the Rapids.  This will quickly split teams into haves and have nots as those owners who are comfortable spending will spend all $4 million and those who aren't will just spend the league covered $1.2 million.  That $2.8 million difference could have a huge effect on rosters.  I guess now we'll know how interested KSE is in being competitive versus just existing.

The silver lining though is that now that we know the number we might start to see some movement in player signings.  A number of Front Offices have complained to reporters that the question about how much TAM would be available was causing them to delay signings.  Maybe we'll get a signing (or 2?) before Christmas?

Secondly the Rapids announced that the affiliation with the USL Charlotte Independence will be extended though the 2018 season.  The fact that this is just a one year deal leads me to believe that the Front Office has bigger long-term plans than affiliating with Charlotte but they have enough to deal with this offseason with all the new leadership so its easier to just extend it for another year and deal with the long-term plans next offseason.  The relationship with Charlotte came out of the time that Hinchey spent there working with the Bobcats along-side some of the Independence owners so I'm not surprised that with his departure that relationship may be reexamined.

Lastly the available players for Tuesday's expansion draft have been announced.  We can then extrapolate who's on the Rapids protection list, and there's really no surprises.  When I made my forecast a little over a month ago I picked 10 names and left the last spot open to be based on the best info the coaches had.  That was before we knew Saeid asked for his release, but the other 9 names on my list were protected, along with Miller and Watts.  (and of course, our four homegrown players were automatically protected).  In fact, the only exposed players the Rapids have under contract next season are Mike da Fonte (no way he gets chosen, and no loss if he does) and Sam Hamilton (he won't get chosen with the other options out there).  So the Rapids should come through this unscathed and with no surprises.

Also, shout-out to Rapids legend and all around fan favorite Drew Moor for picking up his second ring last night!  He's 2-1 now in MLS Cups, all played in Toronto.  Clint Irwin gets his first ring as well.

Expansion Draft Coming, Maybe?

Next year LAFC becomes team #23 in MLS.  From all expectations there will be an expansion draft sometime in December for them, but oddly there's been no announcement of the timing or rules for that draft.  Maybe MLS is going to do something different this time?

For now I'm going to assume its coming and I'm going to assume its going to use essentially the same rules as last year's draft for Atlanta and Minnesota used.  With those assumptions, here's who I'd protect on the Rapids.  A quick recap of the rules:

• Teams protect 11 players
• All homegrown and Generation Adidas players are automatically protected on top of the 11
• All players with a no-trade clause must be protected
• DP's are not automatically protected
• At least 3 internationals must be protected

Auto-protected homegrown players: Calvert, Ford, Perez, Serna

Auto-protected Generation Adidas players: None (I'm assuming Hairston and Miller have both graduated from the program)

* = Protected in 2016 expansion draft

International minimum:

Aigner - Obvious choice, I think he'll be a key part of the squad next year

Badji* - His somewhat surprising run to the Golden Boot means he's now a key part of the team
Gashi* - Based on Smith's radio interview it sounds like he's learned what he needs to do to contribute

Azira* - Struggled in 2017 without a consistent partner in midfield but still the best dmid we have
Boateng - His broken back made this season a wash but I expect Smith sees him a a key building block going forward
Hairston* - Has things to work on but brings a sense of urgency and attitude the rest of the team lacks
Howard* - Even without the no-trade clause I'm sure he has he would be an obvious choice.  Too good to let walk away for nothing
MacMath* - Too valuable to let get away, and his time is coming
Saied - Not blown away buy him but better quality than most
Sjoberg* - The big Swede is a good foundation for this rebuilding team

That's 10 obvious choices.  The 11th is really dependent on what the FO thinks LAFC is looking for and what player has the most value going forward.  If Gatt or Williams has trade value, protect them.  if Castillo has a future here, protect him.  If Gordon can be re-signed for a lower number, he might be worth protecting as he would be an obvious LAFC target.  My recommendation from the outside would be Gordon as I think he's the valuable player most likely to be selected by LAFC.

Usually at the end of a season I do a roster review, separating players into keep, keep unless upgrade possible, cut, etc.  This year though this post pretty much does that.  Quite simply this roster isn't good enough to compete in MLS as built and most of the players on it will need to be replaced in order to win anything it this league.  If they're not listed above assume they're only worth keeping because you can't swap out 13-16 players in one season so some of them will have to stay.

Roster News and Expansion Draft Protected List

Two big announcements today.  We got the list of re-signed and released players and we got the protected list for the expansion draft.  First the roster news.  Here's the current status of everyone (other than Juan Ramirez):

Players already under contract for 2017: K. Doyle, Gashi, Howard, Powers, Williams

Players who's option for 2017 was picked up today: Badji, Berner, Burch, Burling, Calvert, Castillo, Miller, Serna, Sjoberg

New long-term contracts signed today: Azira, Cronin, Hairston, MacMath, Watts

Options declined today: C. Doyle, Pappa, Pfeffer, St. Ledger

Out of contract: Jones, Le Toux

If you remember my roster write up from Saturday I had 11 players on the Keep list, 10 of which were confirmed to be signed for 2017 today.  Greenspan being traded yesterday prevented a clean sweep of my list.  I also had 6 players on my Keep But Look For An Upgrade list, all of which are now under contract for 2017.  I had 5 on my Trade/Sell list but it appears we're just releasing two of them, Pappa and Jones (though if Jones isn't selected in the expansion draft we'd still retain his rights).  We kept Powers, MacMath, and Ramirez and hopefully we get value for them.  All 3 names on my Cut list got cut (C. Doyle, Le Toux, St. Ledger), while one of my unknowns was kept (Castillo) and one was cut (Pfeffer).

The announcement did include that the team is in discussions with some of the cut players to bring them back under different contacts.  If I had to guess that would be Pfeffer and maybe Conor Doyle.

Overall we have 19 players under contract for 2017, though we can expect a couple of these players to not start the season on the roster through trades, sales, or cuts.  Its a solid core to build around and we can now focus on looking for difference makers to help the offense.

Also today the team released its  list  of protected players for tomorrow's Expansion Draft that will happen at noon MT.

Auto Protected Homegrown Players:
Caleb Calvert
Zach Pfeffer (despite being declining his option we retain his rights and he could be selected tomorrow)
Dillon Serna

Protected List:
Micheal Azira
Dominque Badji
Sam Cronin
Kevin Doyle
Shkelzen Gashi
Marlon Hairston
Tim Howard
Zac MacMath
Eric Miller
Dillon Powers
Axel Sjoberg

A couple of surprises on that list.  I picked 8 of the 11 correctly on Saturday but I had Burch,, Burling, and Watts protected over Badji, MacMath, and Miller.  MacMath is understandable if the team thinks there's more value in trading him than using him as the carrot to be the only Rapid picked tomorrow.  I'm surprised at Badji or Miller over Watts, a number of columnist have already identified Watts as one of the best possible pickups for Atlanta or Minnesota tomorrow.  Burch and Burling provide veteran leadership and I'm a little surprised to see Badji valued over them.  Miller at least plays a hard to fill position (left or right back) so there's some understanding there.

All that said, I still think the deals with both expansion teams yesterday included an understanding that nobody from the Rapids will be picked tomorrow.  If I'm wrong though then I think the most likely pick is either Watts or Pappa.

2016 Roster Review and Expansion Draft Prediction

Its been a little late coming but I'm finally getting around to my annual roster review.  Afterwards I'll also project who I think the Rapids will protect in next week's expansion draft.

This is my breakdown of what I think Colorado should do with each player, given the realities of MLS's player acquisition rules and current contract statuses (as best we know them).  I'll like the player's position and their 2016 base salary as well.

Keep:
M Micheal Azira, 63K - Might be the best deal in the league at 63K.  Should have played more down the stretch
GK John Berner, 63K - He'll be needed to start thee season until Howard is healthy
F Caleb Calvert, 75K - Young and likes some of what we saw this year.  Also apparently retains his homegrown designation
M Sam Cronin, 225K - Surprisingly maybe the key to the team this year.  We saw how much it hurt not to have him in the final game
F Shkelzen Gashi, 1.575M  - Took a while to get settled but I think there's more to come
D Joe Greenspan, 51.5K - Young, looked good at times, no brainer to keep him
M Marlon Hairston, 90K - Probably took the biggest step forward of any player this year.  Can't wait to see him contribute more regularly next year
GK Tim Howard, 2.1M - Duh
M Dillon Serna, 66K - Equally duh.  Hopefully he bounces back from the ACL well
D Axel Sjoberg, 66K - Keep him and give him a raise
D Jared Watts, 68K - Another one that took a surprising step forward this year.  Still want him as a backup not as a starter though

Keep for now, be looking for an upgrade:
F Dominque Badji, 53.5K - Barring a huge step forward in his shooting ability he's nothing more than a later game speedy super sub.  Nice to have but if there's an option to improve by moving him we should.
D Marc Burch, 120K - I could see moving him into the keep list but that price tag is a bit high
D Bobby Burling, 110K - If Pablo sees him as a starter next to Axel then we can keep him.  If he's going to back up Watts though we can probably do better or get cheaper (or both)
F Kevin Doyle, 1.075M - I love his passion and his leadership, but we're just not getting enough out of him.  If we could bring him back at about a third of the price I'd be good keeping him.  He's going to be hard to replace though, unless we have an option on his contract.
D Eric Miller, 66.4K - Young, has potential, but looked really bad late in the season
D Mekeli Williams, 85K - Started hot but fell off as the season went on.  We can probably do better at outside back

Trade/Sell:
M Jermaine Jones, 600K - Reports are he's already talking to LA.  Trade his rights there and move on
GK Zac MacMath, 140K - He deserves a chance to start some where and that's to much to pay for a backup GK
M Marco Pappa, 110K - Not a fit for Pablo's system
M Dillon Powers, 270K - He needs a fresh start somewhere else.  Maybe Blackburn?
M Juan Ramirez, 85K - He's done in Colorado, get what we can for him

Cut:
F Conor Doyle, 66K - Did nothing this year
M Sebastien Le Toux, 300K - Way too much for way too little
D Sean St. Ledger, 192K - Literally did nothing this year

Unknown/Too Little Info:
D Dennis Castillo, 51.5K - Not enough playing time to really know
M Zach Pfeffer, 101K - Pfeffer retained his homegrown player designation so he's probably worth keeping but I haven't seen him all season so who knows

That leaves us 8 to replace and 6 to upgrade.  That's a bit much so we can expect that we won't upgrade every one of those players and somebody like Conor Doyle or Dillon Powers may hang around.

The first thing to be concerned about though is Tuesday's Expansion Draft.  Here are the basic rules:

• Atlanta United and Minnesota United will each get 5 picks
• No team can lose more than 1 player
• Teams can protect 11 players, 3 of which must be internationals
• Homegrown and Generation Adidas players are automatically protected on top of the 11
• Anyone with a no-trade clause must be included in the 11 protected players

Given that, here's what I predict/suggest for our protected list:

Homegrown players:

• Caleb Calvert
• Zack Pfeffer
• Dillon Serna

(Yes, Calvert and Pfeffer kept their homegrown designations after being acquired by Colorado, per MLS)

Possible Generation Adidas players:

• Marlon Hairston
• Eric Miller

The time when a player "graduates" from Generation Adidas is not made public so its possible neither, one, or both of these players will be auto-protected.  I've heard both things about Hairston so far.  We shouldn't use a slot on Miller if he's not protected but we should on Hairston.

Internationals:

• Kevin Doyle - If we have any thought of bringing him back
• Shkelzen Gashi - Probably has a no-trade clause but worth protecting anyway
• Axel Sjoberg - Easy choice, he's a cornerstone of our defense

Remaining List:

• Micheal Azira - Would be a steal for either team
• Marc Burch - Worth keeping rather than letting go for nothing
• Bobby Burling - See Marc Burch
• Sam Cronin - Fairly obvious, a key piece of our midfield
• Tim Howard - Probable no-trade clause plus we put way too much into him to take any risks
• Dillon Powers - Worth too much to let him go for free
• Jared Watts - Surprisingly I think he needs to be protected
• Marlon Hairston - If not auto-protected, otherwise the coach's opinion of the player with the most potential out of Badji, Castillo, Greenspan, and Williams

The goal here is that leaving MacMath and Pappa unprotected entices Atlanta or Minnesota to pick one of them protecting the rest of the roster.  So my final combined list of protected players would be:

Azira, Burch, Burling, Calvert, Cronin, K.Doyle, Hairston, Howard, Gashi, Pfeffer, Powers, Serna, Sjoberg, Watts, and possibly one young player with potential.

As Expected, Busy Day For The Rapids

In the short 4 hour trade window this morning the Rapids made two trades, then released their protected list for the expansion draft.

The first move was acquiring Michael Harrington from Portland for allocation money.  Harrington is a 28 year old right back who can play on the left as well.  He spent 6 seasons in KC averaging about 25 appearances a season before moving to Portland for the last two years, making 58 appearances.  Harrington made 125K in Portland last season.

I think this was a solid move by the Rapids.  Getting a steady MLS right back fills in for the out of contract Wynne at a lower cost and frees Klute up to focus on the left side.  We have no idea how much allocation money it cost us but given our hit (Jose Mari, more on that later) and miss (Zat Knight, again more later) track record with internationals its probably good we stuck with a known quantity.

The second move today was sending Joe Nasco and our third round pick in next month's draft to New England for international strikers Dimitry Imbongo (Congo) and Geoffry Castillion (Netherlands) and New England's 2nd round pick next month.

This was clearly a salary dump for NE as Castillion was signed to a 329K contract in August and made 1 appearance for the club.  Imbongo has been in New England for two years, scoring 4 goals in 32 appearances and tying a MLS record with 3 red cards in one season (2013).  He made 123K last year.  This also gives the Revs flexibility in their international count for their protected list.

I don't know what to think about this trade.  I like the swap of draft picks for Nasco, considering he had no future here.  Imbongo might be a decent pick-up if he can cool his hot head.  Castillion looks like an anchor at that salary though.  The good news is that both Imbongo and Castillion (as well as Nasco) had their 2014 options declined so we're not tied to them at their current salaries.

After all of that the Rapids released their expansion draft list:

Protected Homegrown Players: Armstrong, Calvert, O'Neill, Serna
Protected Generation Adidas Player: Hairston
Protected Players: Brown, Harrington, Irwin, Klute, Knight, LaBrocca, Moor, Powers, Sanchez, Torres, Watts

That leaves the following players unprotected and available for NYCFC or Orlando to select on Wednesday:
Agbossomounde, Alvarez, Berner, Buddle, Burch, Cascio, Castillion, Eloundou, Hill, Imbongo, Jose Mari, Mullan, Mwanga, Neeskens, Piermayr, Van De Casteele, Wynne

The big surprise is seeing Jose Mari unprotected but today's announcement also included the information that he's looking to go back to Spain in this offseason.  Other than that there are no real surprises, but I don't fully agree.  IMO I'd swap out Knight, LaBrocca, and Watts for Cascio, Eloundou, and Neeskens.  Knight didn't show enough for his cost in his four appearances.  If LaBrocca is important enough for us to protect we're not a good MLS team and need to get better.  Watts was just bad last season and while young, I'd rather risk him being taken than one of the other three.

Labrocca is the only player not under contract we protected while Berner, Burch, Cascio, Eloundou, and Neeskens are under contract for next season but unprotected.

Tomorrow should be quiet as the trade window is closed until after Wednesday's expansion draft.  If the Rapids do have somebody selected they'll be able to protect 1 more player.  My list would be Eloundou, then Cascio.  At most they can lose two players on Wednesday.

Rapids Lose Nyassi To Montreal

In today's expansion draft the Montreal Impact picked Sanna Nyassi from the Rapids. No team could lose more than one player, so after that selection the rest of the exposed players were safe.

Losing a player is never ideal, but given the possible outcomes this was probably the best result we could have hoped for. Due to the fact that the Rapids were handcuffed by the requirement to protect 3 of their internationals they were always going to have a player that was appealing to Montreal available. Some of the names of players who should have been exposed thrown around in Nyassi's place in the last 48 hours (Mullan, Pickens, Mastroeni, etc.) would have easily been taken by Montreal, or if they weren't somebody like Kimura would have been taken.

The difference between Nyassi and those other names is that if everyone is healthy those other players are all likely starters. Nyassi is a likely reserve/late-game sub if everyone is healthy. If you have to lose somebody, its better to lose a depth player than a starter.

Rapids Reveal Protected List

Colorado just unveiled their protected list for the expansion draft:

Conor Casey

Omar Cummings

Danny Earls - International

Jeff Larentowicz

Pablo Mastroeni

Drew Moor

Brian Mullan

Joseph Nane - International

Matt Pickens

Jamie Smith - International

Marvell Wynne

You can see that the pictured Kosuke Kimura is not on the protected list. He's the big surprise. There's also a few raised eyebrows at Danny Earls being protected as one of the internationals instead of Miguel Comminges.

Personally I think protecting Mullan and especially Pickens over Kimura is a huge mistake. Koz is the most underrated defender in the league. I don't see how Montreal doesn't snap him up. My only hope is that there's some deal already worked out where Montreal takes him and trades him back for allocation money, similar to the pre-draft deal the Rapids worked out with Portland last year and Anthony Wallace.

Expansion Draft Looms Ahead!

Today the Rapids released information about the expansion draft, namely which players qualify as internationals. That means its time for my take on who to protect.

Automatically protected under homegrown player rule:

Davy Armstrong

Josh Janniere - I'm not sure how he qualifies as homegrown for the Rapids, but maybe the status transfers with the player.

Internationals (Must protect 3):

Miguel Comminges - He seemed to lock down the left back spot once he showed up.

Danny Earls - He's the last man standing. Folan should not be protected and nobody is likely to take Smith given his ACL injury

Joseph Nane - As a Canadian he'd be an attractive target for Montreal

Remaining 8:

Conor Casey - Duh

Omar Cummings - See Casey

Kosuke Kimura - Possibly the most underrated defender in the league, and the heart and soul of the team.

Jeff Larentowicz - See Cummings

Pablo Mastroeni - I see this as a duh but many don't. I also believe, based on gut feel, he has a no-trade clause and must be protected anyway

Drew Moor - See Larentowicz

Sanna Nyassi - Toughest choice to make as there are 3-4 players (Mullan, Pickens, Wallace, etc.) that could be protected here. I think Nyassi is the best combination of likely to be taken and most damaging to lose

Marvell Wynne - See Moor

So that's the 11. Some tough decisions due to having to protect a couple of internationals we don't really care about. Maybe the Rapids can pull off another lat minute trade like they did last year and move some internationals off the roster.