New Trialist and Season Preview

A surprise announcement from Commerce City today as Brazilian Luis Eduardo Schmidt, aka Edu, has started a trial with the team.  He contacted the Rapids about a trial, as opposed to the usual other way around.  He's a 33 year old midfielder/forward with 15 years of experience in Brazil and Spain.  He has 63 goals in 253 La Liga appearances over 9 years.  Edu spent 2000-2009 in Spain with Celta and Real Betis before returning to Brazil.  He's been fighting injuries the last 3 years, making only 30 appearances total in Brazil, and is obviously looking to jump start his career in MLS.

The Rapids are currently maxed out on players and international spots, but a player on IR doesn't count towards either.  Since the earliest Jamie Smith is expected to be available is late May he'll probably start the season on IR which would open an international slot.  Any player signed would still have to fit under the salary cap though.

From that unexpected news to the promised second half of my season preview.  On Monday we reviewed the depth at each position and probable lineup.  Today we'll tack a bit about the biggest change in the team, the coaching staff.

Obviously there's a world of difference between Gary Smith's 4-4-2 and Oscar Pareja's planned 4-3-3 formation.  Smith's style was very direct grind-it-out play while Pareja is going for a more possession and short passing game. To me the biggest surprise is how few changes Pareja has made so far.  The team that takes the field on Saturday will probably have 8 players that started the season opener last year (and MLS Cup 2010).  The added players are likely to be Zapata at left back, Castrillon in the center of the midfield, and rookie Tony Cascio up front.  Despite the limited number of changes we'll probably see a completely different style of soccer at the Dick in less than 72 hours.  Out will be the long balls to the forwards and the kick it and run style.  Instead you'll see a team focused on patient build-up and keeping control of the ball.

This is a great plan to play at altitude, making the opposition that's not used to the lack of oxygen chase the ball as much as possible.  How well we pull it off though will be the issue.  I'm not sure we're going to be as successful at it as we're all hoping, at least right away.  I still have major concerns about goal scoring, at least until Casey can prove he's back to his old self, and the 3-man central midfield will leave a lot of work for the wings to do and their ability to do that seems to be a big question mark.  I think that long-term this is a great step for the team to be making, but I'm not expecting big things from their 2012 season as they adapt to this new mentality.

So my predictions for this year:

• The Rapids struggle to hold on to a playoff place all season and miss out on the playoffs in the last couple of games of the season.  The struggle to adapt to the new style early in the season will cost us just enough points to finish 6th in the West and just outside the postseason.
• Due to the unfavorable schedule of two games in Utah before FSL comes to Colorado for the final game the Rapids will lose the Rocky Mountain Cup again.
• Colorado makes a deeper than expected run in the U.S. Open Cup before losing on the road in the semifinals to another MLS team.
• Cascio will be the best rookie the Rapids have seen since Hunter Freeman in 2005.
• Casey comes back just as strong as before and gets at least 10 goals.
• Late in the year, but before the final game, Pablo announces his retirement.

So, what do you see happening?

Wallace Out For The Season

Bad news out of Commerce City today as Anthony Wallace ripped his Achilles in training yesterday and he'll miss 6-9 months.  That means if he takes exactly 6 months and no longer he can get back for the final 7 games.  Realistically he'll be back closer to the final 2 games, at which point hopefully the Rapids will be in their playoff push.  If that's the case odds are they aren't going to want to upset the apple cart re-integrating Wallace into the team.  I think the only way we see Wallace on the field for Colorado this year is if the Rapids are out of the playoff hunt and he gets some time in the last few games to get some minutes in.

That segues into my planned topic for tonight, the first half of the season preview.  I was going to go over the roster by position tonight then do a wrap-up and prediction post midweek before my game preview on Friday.

Goalkeeper:
No changes at all this offesason between the pipes.  Pickens is still the #1, Ceus is the #2, and Joyce is the #3.  The real question will be which Pickens do we get.  The one from the first half of 2011 and earlier or the one from the second half of 2011.  The latter part of the year Pickens seemed to lose a step in his positioning and reaction time.  Maybe it was just the number of games or maybe he's on the backside of his career.  Even with that he was still a solid MLS keeper but he was less likely to "stand on his head" to win us a game we were unlikely to win.  Ceus has shown himself to be a capable keeper but nothing special so far.  Joyce is unlikely to see the field in anything outside a friendly or reserve game.

Defense:
We lost 3 defenders (Comminges, Earls, Holody) and signed two (Freeman, Zapata).
Right Back: Kimura, Ababio
Center Back: Moor, Wynne, Marshall, Palguta
Left Back: Zapata, Freeman, Wallace

Its pretty obvious that left back was an area of concern this offseason as both new players play that position.  As we see with the Wallace news its good that we added that depth as we're going to need it.  We saw last year that Palguta, Moor, and Wynne can also play outside and Ababio has gotten time in the center this preseason so there's some real flexibility in this group which will come in handy if injuries mount up.  Kimura, Moor, and Wynne have been the starting group along the backline for a couple of seasons and they play well when they're in their natural positions with a solid left back.  They struggled when Moor was moved around last year and they lost the familiarity with the lineup.  Hopefully with Zapata and Freeman this group can stay in their natual positions and play to their strengths.

Midfield:
We lost 2 midfielders (Kandji, Nyassi) and signed 4 (Cascio, Castrillon, Rivero, Yamada).
Left Mid:  Cascio, Smith, Thompson
Center Mid: Castrillon, Larentowicz, Mastroeni, Rivero, Armstrong, Emory, Janniere, Nane, Yamada
Right Mid: Mullan, LaBauex

Its kind of hard slotting the midfielders into specific spots.  That's roughly where they would have ended up in last year's 4-4-2 but in this year's 4-3-3 you'll probably see players like Mullan, Smith, and Cascio playing in the front line even though they're listed as midfielders.  This was the area of biggest change this offseason and probably the critical area for success in Colorado this year.  From what we're seeing in preseason we're going to play 3 central midfielders in Larentowicz, Castrillon, and Mastroeni and expect the outside forwards to handle the wings.  How these 3 are able to link up with the front line is going to decide this season.  If the Rapids are forced to go back to playing long ball it will be a long summer, but if this new passing attack can create chances up front we'll see excitement never seen before at the Dick.

Behind the starting 3 there's plenty of depth but most of it is untested.  Only Thompson has significant minutes in MLS and those haven't been particularly impressive.  Rivero is expected to have somewhat of an impact this year but primarily I think they're grooming him to take over Mastroeni's role next season.  Yamada had some good ball movement in Hawaii but he's going to have to work to get playing time.  The rest of the group got limited minutes last year and that probably won't change much this season.  One question that we won't see answered until midyear is where Smith fits into the system.  with his ACL tear I expect it will be June before he's ready to get significant playing time.

Forwards:
We lost 1 forward (Folan) and signed none.
Forwards: Casey, Cummings, Akpan, Amarikwa

On paper both the strongest and weakest group on the team.  There may not be a better strike duo in MLS when Casey and Cummings are healthy, but if their not there isn't much  backing them up.  Akpan and Amarikwa have yet to show they can carry a team's offensive needs.  In the new 4-3-3 we'll probably see a wide midfielder like Mullan or Cascio (or possibly Smith) take the third spot next to the C + C Goal Factory.

Casey won't be healthy until April though, so I wouldn't be shocked to see the rookie Cascio starting on opening day alongside Mullan and Cummings.  Without a holding forward like Casey they're going to be depending on the midfield to get them the ball in a dangerous location.  If Casey can return to form though, look out, this formation could really play to his strength as he holds the ball in the box and is able to either pass to an oncoming forward on either side or turn and shoot if those forwards draw off defenders.

If Casey and Cummings aren't healthy or suffer significant injury the team will have to make a move IMO.  Last year showed that the AA Battery isn't ready to power the offense and I don't think pushing midfielders forward will do it either.

One Last Friendly To End the Preseason

The Colorado Rapids faced the Colorado School Of Mines yesterday at the Dick in one last preseason friendly before Saturday's season opener.  Not surprisingly the side in burgundy didn't find much of a challenge against a Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference school, winning 4-0.  Here's the starting XI:

Cascio - Cummings - Rivero

Larentowicz - Castrillon - Mastroeni

Zapata - Marshall - Wynne - Kimura

Pickens

Subs:
Amarikwa for Cummings at half
Mullan for Rivero at 58
Thompson for Cascio at 63
Akpan for Castrillon at 68
Palguta for Wynne at 70
Yamada for Larentowicz at 75

The only regular not to play was Moor, who I'm guessing got the day off to rest his tweaked hamstring.  I would expect him to be ready for Saturday in Marshall's place, and I would also expect to see Mullan starting where Rivero started in this game.

Cascio had the first 2 goals and Castrillon had the last 2 along with an assist on one of Cascio's.  Cummings had an assist on one of each of their goals, while Mullan and Thompson got the assists on Castrillon's last goal.    You have to like seeing the confidence from our new players and with the amount of playing time he's getting with the first team I expect Cascio to get the start in his first ever pro game on Saturday.

Final Roster Set

Earlier today draftee Joel Helmick tweeted this:

Thank you @ColoradoRapids for the great opportunity. Made some friends and learned a lot. Hope to return sometime in the future.

From this I think its safe to say that the Rapids didn't extend him a contract.  Not really a surprise since he was our pick in the final round of the Supplemental Draft and we already had 3 keepers under contract.  That's a big hill to climb.  He was the last unsigned player in camp so we now know the full 30 man roster we're starting the season with.  Colorado, surprisingly, only made 6 moves this offseason, plus re-signing Mullan and Emory to new contracts.

• Danny Earls out, Luis Zapata in - Pretty much a straight swap of an international left back for an international left back.  Zapata is a probable starter for the opener next weekend, which Earls was not going to be, so it appears at first glance to be an upgrade.
• Miguel Comminges out, Hunter Freeman in - Another left back swap, but this time we dropped an international for a domestic player.  When Freeman gets healthy he'll push Zapata for that starting spot much like Comminges would have done, but probably for a cheaper price.
• Sanna Nyassi out, Tony Cascio in - A winger for a winger swap.  Nyassi was a casualty of the expansion draft rules and I'm sure the Rapids would have wanted to keep him if they could.  Cascio showed some good skill in Hawaii though so he may not be a bad replacement.
• Caleb Folan out, Jamie Castrillon in - Not really a straight position for position swap, but they're both attacking players that are expected to carry a good part of the load this season.
• Macoumba Kandji out, Martin Rivero in - Again not a true position swap but Kandji was sort of a super sub once he got healthy last year, and that's kind of what I'm expecting from Rivero this year.
• Michael Holody out, Kohei Yamada in - Two players that don't really have much in common other than being young projects.

A unexpected low number of changes for a team with a new coaching staff and new leader at the top.  The stability, especially in the core starters, should help as we adjust to the new formation.  I'll have a full season preview sometime in the next few days.

Here's the final roster:

* = Requires an international slot

Goalkeepers:

Steward Ceus

Ian Joyce

Matt Pickens

Defenders:

Eddie Ababio

Hunter Freeman

Kosuke Kimura

Tyrone Marshall

Drew Moor

Scott Palguta

Anthony Wallace

Marvell Wynne
Luis Eduardo Zapata*

Midfielders:

Davy Armstrong

Tony Cascio

Jaime Castrillon*
Steven Emory

Josh Janniere*

Ross LaBauex

Jeff Larentowicz

Pablo Mastroeni

Brian Mullan

Joseph Nane
Martin Rivero*

Jamie Smith*

Wells Thompson

Kohei Yamada*

Forwards:

Andre Akpan

Quincy Amarikwa

Conor Casey

Omar Cummings

Rapids Live On Altitude...Most Of The Time

Colorado announced its TV plans today, and once again their on Altitude.  Not a surprise since KSE owns both the Rapids and Altitude TV.  28 games will air live on Altitude.  One game, April 1st, will be live on Altitude2 which is only available in SD on Comcast.  April 1st is a home game against the Fire though so I'll be seeing it live in person. ;)  3 games will air live on NBC Sports Channel and 1 game will be live on ESPN (later rebroadcast by Altitude).

That adds up to 33 of the 34 games this season.  The missing game?  April 7th @ FaKe SaLt LaKe.  At the same time as that game the Nuggets and Avs are also playing and being shown on Altitude and Altitude2.  The Rapids game will be shown tape-delayed on Altitude.  For a normal game I'd roll with that, but a Rocky Mountain Cup match against FSL?  That sucks.  Luckily I've heard that the Rapids are working on a number of options to make the match available live to fans.  I'm guessing this will be a viewing party with a direct feed somewhere in Denver and/or a lifting of the normal blackout restrictions on MLS Direct Kick and MLS Live. We'll see what they come up with.

The on-air talent this year will be Todd Romero doing play-by-play and Marcelo Balboa once again doing color.  Romero has no play-by-play experience outside of World Wrestling Entertainment, so I have my concerns that we're going to have yet another season of Balboa having to explain the game to his partner instead of having two experienced people calling the game.  This is particularly annoying since I know two play-by-play broadcasters with MLS experience contacted Colorado about doing games this year only to be passed over for a new guy.

On the bright side though, we get 32 of 34 games live in HD.