2026 Preview And Predictions

This season preview it a hard one to write because so much of it is a mystery.  Really all the changes from the end of last year are mysteries in MLS, with, until this week, Dante Sealy being the only new ingredient with any MLS time.  Adding Miguel Navarro gives some idea of what to expect but he's two years removed from playing on a bad Fire team.  In fact arguably the biggest roster move of the offseason was selling Cole Bassett to Portland.  Addition by subtraction I guess?

Of course the biggest mystery is on the sideline.  Is Matt Wells ready to be a head coach and is he ready to do it in MLS, which has its own set of challenges?  Based on the lack of game-changing signings it feels like the Front Office thinks that Steffen, Aaronson, and Navarro are a good enough core to take this team further in 2026 under Wells than they did in 2025 under Armas.  Wells is saying all the right things, but what matters is what happens starting on Sunday night.

It looks like the Rapids are going to play something similar to how Armas set them up.  4-man back line, a central triangle of midfielders, a lone striker, and an outside option on each side.  Wells seems to be looking for more true wingers than Armas was by the end.  The new manager also gets the advantage of the first true destroyer-style defensive mid the Rapids have had in a few years in Ojediran.  That's a role this team has needed for a while.

Its going to be needed this year two with the number of open questions on defense.  I'm not particularly satisfied with any of the options on the back line.  Cannon is a jack of all trades, doing none of them well.  Holding is still somewhat of a question mark but doesn't seem to be a guaranteed lock-down CB.  The second CB position is a toss-up between three young (ish in Murphy's case) players.  At LB things were going so poorly we needed to get Navarro.  Not a lot of confidence there.

Beyond that there's still a time bomb waiting to go off on this team.  Navarro has made it clear he wants to go back to Brazil eventually, and there have been multiple rumors about teams in Brazil and in Mexico interested in him.  He's under contract through at least the 2027-28 season and possibly to the midpoint of the 28-29 season, depending on how this season transition is handled.  You have to think at some point the Rapids will look to make some money off of him.  If he's here for Galaxy game on March 7th, right after the Brazilian window closes, it means he'll be here at least until the World Cup break and the windows opening again in July.

Overall I expect a season of transition, which doesn't seem to match with the stated goa by Smith and Demoff of being in the conversation around MLs Cup.  In a normal situation it would be expected that the first season under a new coach might be a bit rough, but this club has asked for patience from fans FAR too many times for that to be acceptable now.  Add to that the addition of the Summit and the schedule change and this is a critical year for the Rapids.  One I don't think they're up for.

And on that bombshell, on to my predictions:

• Starting out on a positive note, this is the year where we finally beat a MLS team in the Open Cup for the first time in 20 years.  I think by the time a MLS matchup happens Wells will realize that's the best path to success this season and take the game more seriously than we have in a long time
• Likewise we retain the Rocky Mountain Cup for the third year running.  FSL hasn't improved that much and we take advantage of having the home leg second to win it
• All that success does not translate in league play though.  Despite the win in the home finale to claim the RMC the Rapids are already eliminated from playoff contention by that point and finish 11th in the West
• In their end of season press conference Smith and Demoff will preach patience and say this season was necessary to get on the right track.  I'm not making this part a prediction but I would not be surprised if sometime in the offseason Padraig Smith is not renewed to allow Demoff to "start fresh" in the Front Office, ,but with no significant additional investment
• The Rapids will lose to Messi, who will play at least as a sub, and Inter Miami in their big 30th anniversary match and overall it will be a bit of a cluster and missed opportunity for the team despite a huge crowd
• Coming out of the World Cup break the season will look like the best case scenario is barely making the playoffs and bowing out quickly, so Navarro will be sold and Yapi will be the starting striker for the rest of the season
• The Rapids bring in a center back and a winger in the summer window, and will be linked to a couple of bigger moves for an attacker, but nothing actually happens.
• Ojediran becomes Hamzat the Destroyer and is a fan favorite, even if maybe it was a slight overpay to get him
• Miguel Navarro claims the left back spot fairly quickly and is a serviceable but not amazing MLS left back
• Aaronson is Player of the Year
• Wells struggles to figure out MLS early but after the World Cup break comes back and really shows some exciting ideas for the 2027 sprint season, despite it being too late for 2026

2025 Preview and Predictions

Well we made it through another offseason and its game week!  First we're all going to freeze Tuesday night watching Colorado's 5th appearance in the CCL/CCC, then its off to St. Louis for the league opener on Saturday.

After a rough offseason where many (including me) were openly questioning the plan given that the team hadn't signed anyone other than Sam Bassett after making the trade for defensive cover in Awaziem and Murphy..  Once they moved preseason from Mexico to Florida though the moves started flying.  We added Ali Fadal, Ted Ku-DiPietro, and Josh Atencio, the latter two filling a couple of big areas of need (winger and d-mid).  There's still a bit of a hole when it comes to a backup for Navarro (especially with Yapi injured to start the season) and we might be a bit light in depth in a couple of areas, but it finally feels like the Rapids aren't letting the league run away from them.

That said, I don't know that we're going to see a significant improvement either.  39 games minimum (34 league, 2 CCC, 3 Leagues Cup) from this group is a lot to ask out of our starters, and our backups still feel raw.  Those added competitions are compressed with 4 games in two weeks to start the season and 5 games in 15 days across the Leagues Cup weeks.  We saw what happened last season after using pretty much the first XI through the Leagues Cup, our legs were dead to finish the season.

Its clear the strategy this offseason was to stock up on youth.  We added two U-22s in Ted KDP and Atencio, traded for a smorgasbord of draft picks in this year's and the next two year's drafts, and our one international signing was also a 21 year-old.  At 28 and 25 Awaziem and Murphy were our oldest new faces.  I think the goal by the Front Office was to hold serve this year and be happy to make the playoffs while hopefully avoiding the wild-card game, then see that youth come to fruition in 2026 and 2027. For a club that doesn't have that much support from ownership (though they did cough up cash for KDP) its probably a smart play but in reinforces the point that KSE isn't investing in their team.  Also by trading away half our international slots the focus has turned to young domestic players, but those could be reinforced by internationals once those slots come back next offseason.

There has been talk from Matt Doyle and Tom Bogert that their sources are indicating we'll play a 3-5-2 this season, but the public talk from Armas has reinforced the commitment to the 4-5-1 we used last season.  The preseason games have seemed to reflect that as well.  The 3-5-2 would solve our fullback problem by turning Vines and Cannon into wing-backs, but it forces somebody (likely Cabral) to play more forward than they are really suited for, or relies on Yapi too much.  Its also a formation that doesn't really need a player like Atencio.

Meanwhile the 4-5-1 fits our midfield pieces and we have Navarro as the lone striker, but it does raise the question of how you use Rosenberry, Cannon, Maxso, Awaziem, and Vines. That's 5 starter-level defenders for 4 spots  Maybe the plan/assumption is that between work load, injury, and possibly national team duties it won't be often all 5 are available to start so they'll rotate through positions as needed.

It obvious Navarro will start up top and I think we'll see the Mihailovic-10/Bassett-8 paring most often, with Cabral on one wing.  I give the nod to Ku-DiPietro and Atencio to get the majority of minutes at the other midfield spots, but Larraz, KSB, and both Harris' will push them.  I'm not convinced Fernandez, Ronan, or S. Bassett will see a lot of time.

With that, on to my predictions:

• Its one series and done in the CCC.  Our track record at LAFC is very bad and I don't see that changing this early in the season.
• Likewise the new Leagues Cup format puts us at a disadvantage and we don't progress.  In fact our chances are so unlikely that going into our final game against Cruz Azul in LA Armas pulls the rip cord and uses a heavily rotated roster to save legs for the run-in to the playoffs.
• The Rapids do make the playoffs, but they host the wild-card game (8th overall).  They actually win the wild-card game before bowing out in the next round.
• Sadly they end up in the wild-card because the curse of Sandy bites us again and we lose the Rocky Mountain Cup in the next-to-last regular-season match (I'm half tempted to say we retain it after points & goals are tied, but I've seen this story too many times before).
• At some point, either just before the window closes in May or when the window opens this summer, the Rapids make a move for a short-term backup striker.
• Mihailovic is once again named Player of the Year and makes a run at Valderrama's record of 16 assists in a season
• Navarro is the Golden Boot but will not get to 16 to tie Rubio and Casey.
• Steffen, Mihailovic, and Bassett all get call-ups this year
• This is the last year Yapi really features for this team.  He may still be on the roster in 2026 but as a deep bench option only.
• Atencio will be seen as the sneaky-good acquisition of this offseason, justifying the expense.

2024 Preview and Predictions

Last week I mentioned reviewing the C38 letter and evaluating what the Front Office did this offseason to do better.  As I started writing that recap on Monday night though I realized that a good part off that letter references things I don't have a way of forming an opinion on yet.  Is the team better on the field?  I don't know, we haven't played a real game yet.  Is the experience at the stadium improved?  I don't know, I haven't been out there yet.  It didn't seem fair to really go into those until we have some actual experiences and data to go on.  So at a good point in the next month or two I'll circle back on that.

So that means we're on to the preview and predictions.  Perfect timing as the season just kicked off with me actually rooting for Messi to win, of course they are hosting FSL tonight.

This offseason the Rapids actually went out and found some solid players and spent some real money.  The big problem, from my POV, is they didn't spend money on the two critical spots they had to fill coming out of 2023.  Namely defensive mid and striker.  Instead at both positions we have a player on a loan that ends in July and questionable depth behind him.  Our season rides on how well those two players do, particularly Navarro at striker, and if they earn a full transfer that we actually pull the trigger on.

Away from those two positions this is a pretty strong starting XI.  Zack Steffen in net fixes the hole created by botching the Yarbrough succession plan/Ilic transfer last season.  Maxso and Rosenberry can be expected to at least be MLS quality on the back line and likely supporting the young but talented Bombito between them.  And of course the most fam-friendly move of the season was bringing Sam Vines back at LB to fill the hole created when Sam Vines left really locks down that position.  In midfield Ronan and Bassett are back but with new friends on the outside, Mihailovic and Fernandez should provide better service than anything we saw last year.

After that the depth has some questions.  Striker is the exact same depth as last year, which wasn't good.  Our winger depth are the starters from last year, Cabral and Lewis, which, eh.  Our defense at least has some strength in numbers with Abubakar and Anderson giving us some options if needed.  Overall those this season will largely rise or fall based on our starting XI.  Löffelsend at d-mind is the only backup I expect might break through to really push for starting time.

The talking heads of MLS media seem to think the same way.  Between MLSsoccer.com and the Athletic 22 people have put out predicted final conference standings.  Only 7 of them think the Rapids make the playoffs.  This after an offseason of a club record transfer fee on Mihailovic , grabbing two other fringe National teamers in Steffan and Vines, and bringing in two other starters in Diack and Fernandez.  That's a big amount of investment by this FO, arguably the biggest ever, and the general response seems to be "eh, not enough".  Brutal.  That tells you how much of a hole this team is in.

Ok, on to predictions.  I've been getting steadily worse with these, we'll see if this is the year to reverse my fortunes.

• The Rapids either don't participate in the USOC (due to the ongoing negotiations between the USSF and MLS) or if they do they get knocked out in their first two rounds to another MLS team.
• They also don't get out of their Leagues Cup group, but give Portland a scare in Portland.  Leon is too much for them at home in Colorado though.
• And to finish out the competitions, they finish 10th overall and miss the playoffs.  They're eliminated in the next-to-last week.
• All that said, the team is improved and plays entertaining soccer at times.  It won't be the pointless soccer we saw last season.
• The rapids don't buy Diack or Navarro at their current price this summer.  Navarro doesn't show enough to be worth $4.5M and Diack gets renegotiated to a lower number before we complete the transfer.
• Needing a striker to replace Navarro Colorado makes a big trade within MLS for a striker in the summer window.
• Mihailovic is the Golden Boot and Player of the Year.  He gets back into the National Team picture by the end of the season.
• Steffen gets a look by the Nats for either the Gold Cup or the Copa, and becomes part of the regular Nats rotation.
• Vines is Defensive Player of the Year but doesn't get a Nats look.
• With trips to Portland, Salt Lake, Seattle, and LAFC in the first 6 weeks the Rapids will be looking up the table all season after getting no more than 2 points out of those 4 games.
• Because of that, and the fact that we have to go back to Sandy in May before FSL comes to Colorado, we once again fail to win the Rocky Mountain Cup.

Ok, that's pretty pessimistic.  But after 2023 can you blame me?

2023 Season Preview and Predictions

I just got home from a week in Cabo to celebrate my parents 50th anniversary, so we're going to squeeze in a couple of posts between now and game time on Sunday to be ready to kickoff the season.  First up, my annual preview and predictions.  But before we get to that, one bit of news.  Defender Michael Edwards has been loaned to USL side San Antonio for the season, with the option to be recalled.  That will give him a higher level of competition than he would get with Rapids 2.

As we go into this year I see a team with, once again, lots of unproven-in-MLS potential  The only real addition we made this offseason that has already been successful in the league is the return of Cole Bassett from his loan in the Netherlands.  Otherwise its a collection of MLS players looking to find success with a new team or international signings new to the league.  That latter is notable as Padraig Smith has talked multiple times about players new to the league needing adjustment time, sometimes up to a full season.

Well, Colorado can't afford for the new guys to take a full year to get up to speed.  Arguably if more than one of Ilic, Gersbach, Ronan, or Maxsø fail to hit the ground running we are probably going to have a long season.  Certainly we need two of them to be ready to go starting in Seattle.  The good news is that we didn't look for our normal bargain deals in Europe.  They brought Maxsø in as a DP, and no DP should be given latitude to have a full season to get established in the league.  If you're taking up one of those spots you're expected to produce immediately.  Cabral was brought over from the Galaxy as a DP as well.  Ilic is here on loan but with an expected big number in his purchase option.  Gersbach is filling a big hole and needs to be ready to do that on day 1.  Only Ronan really has the flexibility to take some time settling in.

In the end, I think this season will come down to how well and how quickly the new parts mesh.  Its clear in this window that the Front Office recognized how badly they screwed up the last couple of windows (that's a discussion for another day) and has made moves to address our lack of depth and most of our holes.  That doesn't get them off the hook of creating the problem where we have a bunch of new parts that we're still unclear about less than 18 months after winning the West.  If we get to May and we're still figuring out our best XI and who works well with who its going to be another long season of one-and-done competitions and no playoffs.

With that, on to the predictions:

• Colorado, on the back of great goalkeeping from Ilic, beats a lower league side in their first USOC game but then gets eliminated by a MLS side in the next round
• The Rapids surprise some people and actually make it out of the group stage of the Leagues Cup, getting a draw in Nashville and beating Toluca at home.  But one knockout match is all they get
• We bring the Rocky Mountain Cup home by beating FSL on the last day of the season
• With that win Colorado leapfrogs FSL into 7th place, avoiding the wild-card play-in game and qualifying for the playoffs
• But its one series and done again, but with the new format at lease we get a home game
• The summer transfer window is quiet for the Rapids, other than exercising Ilic's purchase clause.  No other major moves are made (in or out) but some depth is added
• By midseason Ilic will be the clear #1 in net
• Diego Rubio wins the team Golden Boot with double-digit goals but less than 15
• Cole Bassett is the team MVP, cementing his status as an everyday starter and getting interest from Europe again by the end of the season
• Jack Price returns to being one of the most underrated players in the league
• Maxsø is the clear defensive player of the year and makes a push for the league's best XI
• Ronan and Max both struggle to claim the third starting spot in midfield, creating a rotation all season
• Cabral finds himself in Colorado and while he doesn't live up to the DP money the Galaxy paid to sign him does justify the GAM we traded to bring him here.  10 or more goals + assists this year.
• Yapi shows he's a year away still, but really looks set for a big 2024

Will I be right?  Probably not.  But am I optimistic or pessimistic?

Season Preview and Predictions

Hard to believe, but its game week!  The Rapids start the 2022 season Thursday in Guatemala for the Champions  League.  We'll have more on that match on Wednesday.  Tomorrow is the official jersey reveal which I'll post tomorrow.  So that leaves tonight for the Sean Preview and my annual Predictions.

Before we get to that though, a quick update on our final preseason scrimmage against Orlando on Friday.  The teams played to a 1-1 draw, with the Rapids giving up the goal in the first 3 minutes and Rubio levelling it just before half.  The starting XI is the same group we've seen most of preseason, while Kaye, Max, and Bryan Acosta all got their first minutes with the team this preseason in the second half (MAK and Acosta played the whole half, Max got the last 30 minutes).  I think its clear that the first half group, with MAK probably replacing Warner, is likely what we'll see on Thursday night.

We finish off the preseason and go into meaningful games with Shinyashiki and Mezquida being the big names to have gotten no game time.  I believe this is likely due to their travelling to complete green cards which is more beneficial in the long run.  Matt Hundley and Abe Rodriguez also got no playing time, but as players that would be very surprising to get any time in the regular season that's not a concern.  None of our draftees got time in this one, and only Markanich travelled to Orlando with the team.  Also Galvan has gotten no time this preseason, but we sadly know why.

So that's how we enter the season.  That is to say, we enter 2022 pretty much how we left 2021.  With a quality squad of 'distressed assets' that is greater than the sum of its parts, but with nobody who will put the team on their shoulders and will them to victory.  This is still a group effort with no true stars.  There are certainly advantages to that strategy, but we've seen the drawbacks in the last two years when we hit the playoffs (but hey, we're hitting the playoffs in back-to-back years!).

The positive side to this strategy is the drop-off from the best player to the eighteenth best player on this roster is probably the smallest in the league.  If Price/Trusty/Yarbrough are your top players, having Warner /Keita/Irwin at the end of your bench is a solid place to be.  You don't have much concern mix and matching to put together a lineup.  We're two deep with acceptable MLS starters in almost every position, which defense being a little questionable.  Our apparent plan to play 5 in the back though helps with that, because if things do get thin we can morph into a 4-man backline.

The problem is the same one we saw last year.  There are going to be games where it just doesn't work.  The passes aren't linking together, the forwards aren't finding space, and the back line isn't in sync.  When that happens there's not enough "top-level" MLS talent to find a way to win without a majority of the team being on.  The one top piece we can rely on though is on the sideline.  Fraser should have been coach of the year last year, and there's no reason his ability to analyze tactics and adjust should be any worse this season.  So there will be very few games where we're played off the pitch.

The lack of real investment in this team this offseason will be the Achilles' heel.  A vast majority of MLS teams went out and spent real money this offseason to increase the talent in the league.  We're one of the few that didn't.  Spending money doesn't mean you win (see the 2021 Rapids success) but when everyone is doing it and you aren't your already thin margin for error shrinks to almost zero.  We're going to have to be perfect for 34 games to repeat our finish from last year, and we won't be.  That said, we still have good MLS qualify.  This is easily a playoff team, but this year is going to be a lot more work and less fun than last season.

So with that, on to the predictions!  As always I'll circle back at the end of the season to see how I did.

• The Rapids make the playoffs without too much sweat, but in 5th place so they don't host a playoff game
• Because of that they're one and done again
• Colorado beats Comunicaciones in the first round of the CCL, marking the first time they've ever advanced in that competition, but then gets knocked out by NYCFC in the next round
• Because they get a bye to the 4th round of USOC play, to allow for CCL play, they end up facing off against another MLS team and do not advance from their first game
• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup, somehow
• We will not make a significant signing before the season starts in 12 days
• This summer we sign what is a notable #9 for the Rapids, but he does not have a significant impact on the 2022 season (but looks like a good signing for the future)
• Barrios wins the Golden Boot again
• Rubio does not finish the season in Colorado
• Max shows us what the Rapids saw in him, but it takes a bit before we see it
• Bassett has a quiet end of the 2021-22 season for Feyenoord, but comes out on fire in the fall
• Trusty leaving hurts the team in the last third of the season as Keita won't really be starter ready until after he takes his lumps this year.
• Trusty becomes a late scratch from the WC roster.  Kellyn Acosta goes to Qatar (yes, we qualify) as does Sam Vines

2018 Season Preview & Predictions

On to hopefully happier news, the start of the 2018 season!  Usually I do a preview breaking down what to expect this year but there's so much new about this team I don't really have a good idea of what to expect.  About the only thing I'm sure if is this organization is going to be more professional than perhaps at any point in its history.  That's not a knock on the early years, a startup league trying to establish the first pro league in 10 years in this country had to fly by the seat of its pants before the teams could become fully professional inside and out.  It is, however, a knock on the last 5 years or so.  We should see a huge change in the look and feel of the Rapids, even if the results on the field don't change noticeably.

Which leads me to this.  I don't think this team, as currently constructed, will make the playoffs.  There isn't enough firepower to keep ahead of 6 other teams in the standings.  I don't even think we can stay close and sign somebody midseason to get us over the hump.  I think a 7th/8th place finish is likely, missing the playoffs by 5 points, give or take.

So with that, on to the rest of my predictions:

• Rapids finish with 43 points
• The Golden Boot winner is not currently on the roster
• Beyond a notable striker signing the Rapids make no other major changes to the roster during the season
• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup in a surprise 2 goal win in the final game at the Dick
• The USOC is as expected.  Beat our lower-league competition in the first round, then lose to a MLS side
• The Rapids won't look outclassed for any length of time over the season but they will not look as good as the better teams.
• Jack Price becomes a fan-favorite and leads MVP voting among the fans
• Gashi is more 2016 Gashi than 2017 Gashi
• Edgar Castillo is a one and done player but Joe Mason makes a permanent move to Colorado
• The FO's decision to focus on lower-leagues in Europe while the rest of the league looked at South America will not be proven to be a bad decision, but it won't be a better decision than South America either
• Fans will be unsettled, fairly, at the end of the year because we missed the playoffs, despite improvement

Play It Again Sam - 2017 Season Preview

We're 72 hours from the first game being in the books so it much be season preview/prediction time.

The team hasn't changed much since 2016 and not at all since I wrote this a week and a half ago.  I won't repeat what I wrote there as far as our new additions.  It seems the plan this year is to repeat 2016 with an increased focus on attack.  The hope appears to be that Gashi, Doyle, Badji, Hairston, and company will step up another level and produce the missing goals from last year while the defense stays focused on repeating last year.

I think that's overly optimistic.  Last year we had a very good defense on the road and a historic defense at home.  That's hard to repeat even for a team with top players.  Our defense last year was greater than the sum of its parts.  We had career years from Burch, Azira, and Sjoberg (as short as his career has been so far) and one of Cronin's best seasons.  all that combined with GK of the year play from the combination of MacMath and Howard.  Add to that surprise early int eh year where I think a lot of teams overlooked us and momentum later in the year where we were flying high.  Those aren't pieces that come together in back to back years.

So I expect our defense to take a step back this season.  Not greatly, it should still be one of the tougher defenses in the league, but I don't expect to be setting records.  I don't expect an equal improvement form the offense to compensate though.  There's still nobody with that spark of creativity we can cont on game after game to generate opportunities.  I feel we're in for another season of low-scoring games but I fear that a number of those 1-0 wins will be 1-1 draws this year

With that, on to the annual predictions!

• The Rapids will finish about 4th in the West with a point total around 50
• We'll win the one-off playoff game at home but lose in the conference semifinals
• Gashi will win the team Golden Boot with double-digit goals (barely)
• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup
• The Rapids make a move in the early season to add some offense, either a trade or a low-key signing
• In the summer transfer window the team makes a bigger splash with a signing, possibly DP level
• The Open Cup goes like the last couple of years where we beat a lower-league team (probably the Switchbacks) but lose when we face MLS competition
• We're going to have one lousy stretch during the year.  Nothing like the end of 2014 but 4-5 games where the season appears to go south.  We recover in time to save our playoff spot though

2016 Season Preview

Less than 72 hours until kickoff!  Time for the annual preview.

Goalkeeper: We spent a lot of time talking about this position this offseason.  I don't want to reiterate so I'll just say that we got a bit worse going from Irwin to MacMath and could get a whole lot of (unnecessarily) better if Howard comes in.

Defense: Yuck.  A solid unit last year got an unnecessary makeover and we're left with a lot of questions.  First the positives, namely the outside backs.  For the first time in what seems like forever the Rapids solved their right back problem before the season started in the form of Eric Miller.  I also have high hopes for Mekeil Williams at left back.  The bad news?  Center back is paper thin and not that strong to start.  Right now we're looking at Card Machine Burling, Oft Injured Sjoberg, and Injured For Preseason St. Ledger.  St. Ledger and Sjoberg would be my preference and they can probably get the job done but there's no room for error.

Midfield: This group is in pretty good shape.  With Cronin, Powers, Gashi, Pappa, and Serna and some depth in Badji, Solignac, and Azira we should do ok.  Pappas' laco of playing time this preseason is worrisome, he needs to be integrated quickly.  Gashi is the real prize here and if he can successfully be the link between Pappa and Kevin Doyle our offense should be greatly improved.

Forward: Great starters, no depth.  Gashi and Kevin Doyle should be the best combo since C&C Goal Facotry.  G+D should create some Goal Differential.  When they leave for the Euros though we're looking at some combination of Badji, Solignac, and Conor Doyle.  That's not likely to get the job done.

Bench: As mentioned earlier today we are very thin at critical points and have  less than 80% of our roster.  Berner is a fine backup for MacMath and we have options in the midfield but defense and striker has almost nothing to rely on.  This, along with coaching, will be our downfall this season.

Coaching: Ah, our Achilles heel.  So far this preseason between watching the play in Arizona and reading the various articles I don't see anything that makes me think Pablo's coaching is going to be any better in 2016.  With Pablo's "pedagogy" talk and the fact that we've been told that Powers will be playing further back but he has yet to do that, I'm getting a serious deja vu feeling.  Spencer has been brought in to help the offense (and be the coach in waiting) but if Pablo doesn't get radically better it won't matter.

Overall we improved relative to the rest of the conference but not enough to make the playoffs.  We're going to need some more signings and a quick improvement in coaching to pull that off.

On to my 2016 predictions:

• Rapids finish with points in the low-40s and in 8th place in the West
• The Rapids get less than 12 points in their first 9 games, leading to Pablo's removal as head coach sometime in that stretch.
• Spencer takes over and rides the "new coach" bounce to a win over FSL in game 10
• Colorado pulls an upset in the third Rocky Mountain Cup game in Sandy and retain the Cup for their first back-to-back RMC wins since '05-'06.
• Pablo stays with the organization in another capacity (Academy?)
• We win a USOC game, maybe two, but bow out before the competition gets really interesting
• Howard shows up in July and immediately becomes the best keeper in MLS but its not what the team needs to make a playoff push
• Gashi scores 11 to become team MVP and Golden Boot winner
• Ramirez never returns to Colorado
• The Rapids make one more notable signing (name player, not necessarily DP) this season
• Spencer retains coaching position into 2017 even though results after taking over for Pablo don't really deserve it
• Bravo keeps his job into next year

2015 Season Preview

Well the big news in the last couple hours is that the owners and the players have agreed to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement and the season will start as planned.  For the Rapdis that means 2pm MST in Philly on Saturday.

Also today the Rapids announced they had signed their final draft pick, striker Dominque Badji, to a contract.  No surprise with the amount of play he's gotten this preseason.  That leaves Colorado with 26 signed players and 7 of 8 international spots filled.  We'll have to see what the roster rules are with the new CBA to know if the Rapids have room to make any more moves.

Along those lines the Post's Daniel Boniface was at training and had a few updates.  Charles Eloundou is now in camp so his visa issues have apparently been settled.  Trialists James Riley and Ben Newnam while trialists Benji Joya, Oscar Montoya, and Francisco Flores have not been seen in a couple of days.  Wes Knight was officially released Saturday and VDC and Neeskens were not present (Neeskens is under contract, VDC isn't).

So with all that I've updated my camp roster, it will be at the bottom of the preview.

The Rapids certainly attempted to improve this offseason, though I don't think they've done enough yet.

Goalkeeper: Clint Irwin is back and should be the #1.  Sounds like that he's missed some time this week as a player rep in the CBA talks and MacMath is ineligible to play against his home team so Berner could get the start on Saturday.  Based on preseason I think Irwin will be the nominal #1 but I expect he and MacMath to both get starts.  That's bad, but it seems to be Pablo's way.  If the two of them can settle into friendly competition as a way of staying at the top of their game that might work.  If one or the other feels like they're being disrespected we could see a repeat of the second half of 2014.  The silver lining is that I would think Irwin would see MacMath as more worthy of taking starts from him than Nasco and Berner were last season.

Defense: This seems like a mismash of talent that if we can find the right combo with we'll be in good shape, but it might take a while still to figure that out.  I think O'Neill and Harrington will start almost every game they're available for, but the other two positions are murky.  The big question mark is will Moor return to his old level after the injury?  If so that gives us 3 solid positions.  If he doesn't he'll still start for a while but I'm not sure how confident I am in any of the other CBs to play in his place.  Burling has experience, Sjober has the physical stature, and Watts is Watts.

As far as right back this is what I wrote last year:

Right back seems particularly questionable.  O'Neill might be good.  Wynne might be able to move back there.  Bursch might be able to fill in.  There doesn't seem to be a great fit on the roster though.  We can duct-tape our way through another season but we should really look at finding a true right back.

Substitute Riley (if signed) for Wynne and I could use the same statement about this year's team.  One of the areas we failed to address this offseason.

Midfield: The Rapids made their biggest strides this offseason in the middle of the aprk.  Sarvas, Pittinari, and Ramirez all look like solid starters already.  Mix in Powers, Sanchez, Serna and Torres and we've got a MLS-quality midfield with at least a couple of backups.  This should be the strength of the team this season and the key will be figuring out the best 5 (assuming we use the 4-2-3-1 formation we've been seeing in preseason) on a given night.

Forward: Um, yeah, nothing much happened here.  We signed Badji!  Otherwise we're apparently hoping that what we have can get us enough goals until a move can be made.  At this point I think the assumption is that Kevin Doyle will be joining the team but the question is when.  If we have to wait for the July transfer window then Brown, Torres, and Badji are going to have to figure out how to score without a holding forward.  If somehow we can get Doyle before the end of Wolves season then we can probably muddle through for a few games until he gets here.  If we don't make any move at all we're in trouble.

Bench: The quality depth is paper thin in defense and forward.  We saw that in Arizona when anyone but the expected starting group got on the field.  Its not pretty.  Even after the top 7 midfielders things take a nose dive.  The only place where we're absolutely set is goalkeeper.  Lets hope players stay healthy and out of trouble.

Coaching:  I don't see much improvement here.  As far as I can tell Pablo's planned trip to Arsenal to work with Wenger never happened.  Instead he went to 'Boro for a week and spent time with former Rapid and current Boro manager Aitor Karnaka.  No knock on Aitor but that's not exactly the same thing.  No experienced assistant coaches were brought in to help, instead two more of the 2010 midfield were added as rookie coaches, Claudio Lopez and Brian Mullan.  I think its great that so many ex-players are now involved in the club (Jamie Smith from that midfield is working with the Academy) but it was clear last season that Pablo needed some experienced advice to level out some rookie mistakes.  Hopefully he got enough experience on his own I guess.

Overall I think we improved, but the rest of the West improved more on average.

So here are my predictions for the season, last year I got just over half of my predictions correct:

• We're not really a playoff threat this season but we improve from last year's disaster.
• The winless streak reaches 17 games before being broken on Jameson Night
• Pablo makes it through 2015 as coach and is not immediately fired after the season
• We do win back the Rocky Mountain Cup in an upset, its a large part of why Pablo keeps his job
• We host a USOC game but we still go losing a game we were favored in
• Doyle joins in July and proves to be a great, but too late, signing
• Torres wins the team Golden Boot
• Irwin or MacMath leaves at the end of the year if not before
• Ramirez turns out to be worth the young DP slot, but Pittinari returns to Argentina after his loan
• We go most of the season without a jersey sponsor, again

Updated camp roster:

(* = international):

Goalkeepers:
John Berner
Clint Irwin
Zac MacMath

Defenders:
Marc Burch
Bobby Burling
Michael Harrington
Drew Moor
John Neeskens
Shane O'Neill
Axel Sjoberg*

Midfielders:
Carlos Alvarez
Sam Cronin
Marlon Hairston
Nick LaBrocca
Lucas Pittinari*
Dillon Powers
Juan Ramirez*
Marcelo Sarvas
Dillon Serna
Jared Watts

Forwards:
Dominique Badji*
Deshorn Brown*
Caleb Calvert
Charles Eloundou* (not yet in camp, visa issues)
Vicente Sanchez
Gabriel Torres*

Unsigned but still around:
D Joseph Greenspan (draftee, on Naval duty through 2017 probably, was in Vegas)
D Ben Newnam (trialist)
D James Riley
D Grant Van de Casteele
F Kevin Doyle* (negotiating)

Questions As We Start The Season

Opening week (at least for the Rapids)!  I'll have a couple (2 or 3 including this one) of season preview-type posts this week before the game preview on Friday, assuming there isn't larger news to cover.  For this one I want to cover some of the bigger questions the club has going into the season.

1. For the 3rd time in 6 years the team will have a coach in his first season.  How will Pablo do?

• I think we have to accept that, yet again, we're going to see a learning curve with our coaching staff.  There are some things that Mastroeni just isn't going to figure out until they happen in a game.  The key will be not to out-think himself.  Getting tricky with lineups and subs is a good example.  We can all point to games under Gary Smith and Oscar Pareja where its obvious the coach over thought things.

2. What are we doing with Matt Pickens?

• We're not going to keep 4 goalkeepers on the roster.  Irwin is clearly the starter and Nasco and Berner were just signed.  So there's really not a spot for Pickens.  Unfortunately everyone else knows that, which puts the Rapids at a disadvantage when trying to trade or sell him.  What's the plan?

3. Who's playing right back, and where's the depth?

• Last year right back was a combination of Wynne, Mullan, and stop gap measures.  This year early on it appears to be Wynne, O'Neill and stop gap measures.  I'm not sure Wynne is the answer, and I know O'Neill is better at CB, where he was playing during his Nats callup.  Will the Rapids need to make a move for a true right back at some point this season?

4. Can we get Sanchez and Powers on the field together?

• In preseason both of these guys seemed to be the midfield general when they played, and both played well.  Assuming they stay healthy, is there a successful way to have both of them on the field?

5. How fit is Buddle?

• Last year Buddle, due to his knee injury (generously) or lack of discipline (not generously), took almost half the season to get fit and his play (and Rapids results) suffered for it.  Reports from preseason are that he looks much better than this time last season, so is he really ready to go?  As the only real target striker on the roster we're going to need him at 100% from the start.

6. Will Gaby Torres live up to his DP status?

• Making only 7 appearances last season really didn't let Torres get into the groove with the team.  Even so he put up 3 goals and an assist.  As the DP though, he's going to be expected to be the scoring engine for the team, can he do it?

There are plenty of other questions (less than 1 full MLS season combined at GK, was Eloundou worth the wait, Samuel Galindo) but these seem like the big ones. 

Player Update, Preview, and Predictions

Today the Denver Post revealed that trialist Cesar Romero and Supplemental Draft picks Stefano Pinho and Machael David have been released from camp.  That leaves defenders Marcello Castro and Brenton Griffiths and forwards David Cortes, Matthew Dunn, and Marcos Pirchio still in camp trying for the final 2 spots.

That leads me into my planned Season Preview.  normally I go through the roster by position but this year its fairly difficult to do that.  The team has signed so many players who can play multiple positions that I couldn't tell you with any certainty where anyone will line up come Saturday.  The players I am fairly confident of, like Pickens and Buddle, are likely to miss the game due to injury.  I will attempt to break it down in basic terms though.

Goalkeeper: There's Pickens and then there's the other two.  We're probably going to live and die in the early season on Matt's (and Travis'!) health.  Ceus had a poor preseason and Irwin is untested at this level.

Defense: Strong but thin.  I think we'll see our best 4 on the field in some format early.  That being Mullan, Moor, Wynne, and Calderon.  Yes, Mullan has officially moved to outside back at this point apparently.  Any injuries are quickly going to reveal our weakness though.  Kindle, Klute, O'Neill, Armstrong, and anyone else we may throw in all have minimal MLS experience and Wallace is coming back from missing almost all of the last two seasons.

Midfield: This is where is gets really foggy.  Thomas will probably be the defensive backbone, but after that?  Pablo is going to reclaim his spot early, but I don't expect he'll keep it if the midfield isn't working.  Rivero's injured with Hill or Powers likely to take his spot.  LaBrocca is just waiting to grab a starting spot from somebody.  Lots of possibilities on the bench in Serna, Smith, and Sturgis, plus whatever attacking midfielders aren't being used as forwards.

Forward: The key to the whole season.  If this group can't figure out how to find the back of the net its going to be a very long year.  The big offseason move, Buddle, is likely to miss opening day with rookie DeShorn Brown looking like the replacement.  Attiba Harris is likely to be the Edu/Folan of 2013, unfortunately.  Castrillon would be the other starter but he's out until at least mid-year, so Cascio, Harbottle, and Akpan will all be challenging for his spot.  Eloundou is a wild card, nobody's seen him yet due to visa issues.

If the back 5 can stay healthy early they can provide a stable base to build on.  The midfield is probably the strongest position as there seems to be  a good amount of quality, but a lot of question marks about everybody's role.  IMO the season is going to hinge on the forwards finding their finishing boots.  I don't think we're going to be able to win many 1-0 games, this squad is built to attack more than defend.

So, its prediction time.  I went 2 for 6 last year, not great.

• The team will struggle early as players figure out their roles.  With 3 tough road games in the first 4 we'll be lucky to have more than 4 points.  Even after that we've got tough games against Seattle, Houston, and FSL in April.
• Due to this tough start we'll be near the playoff positions most of the season but fall out of the running before the final push, much like last year.
• We will, however, win the Rocky Mountain Cup back, finally
• More than one new-to-MLS player will claim a starting position this year and will be expected to be a starter going into 2014.
• The USOC will be a moderate success, with the team doing well enough to finally host a game before being eliminated by another MLS side.
• Buddle doesn't live up to his bidding, but does well enough to continue to start.
• As mentioned above, Harris will be the WTF signing of 2013.
• Pablo retires at season's end, possibly announcing it before the final home game.
• Despite missing the playoffs Bravo & Pareja will keep their jobs.

New Trialist and Season Preview

A surprise announcement from Commerce City today as Brazilian Luis Eduardo Schmidt, aka Edu, has started a trial with the team.  He contacted the Rapids about a trial, as opposed to the usual other way around.  He's a 33 year old midfielder/forward with 15 years of experience in Brazil and Spain.  He has 63 goals in 253 La Liga appearances over 9 years.  Edu spent 2000-2009 in Spain with Celta and Real Betis before returning to Brazil.  He's been fighting injuries the last 3 years, making only 30 appearances total in Brazil, and is obviously looking to jump start his career in MLS.

The Rapids are currently maxed out on players and international spots, but a player on IR doesn't count towards either.  Since the earliest Jamie Smith is expected to be available is late May he'll probably start the season on IR which would open an international slot.  Any player signed would still have to fit under the salary cap though.

From that unexpected news to the promised second half of my season preview.  On Monday we reviewed the depth at each position and probable lineup.  Today we'll tack a bit about the biggest change in the team, the coaching staff.

Obviously there's a world of difference between Gary Smith's 4-4-2 and Oscar Pareja's planned 4-3-3 formation.  Smith's style was very direct grind-it-out play while Pareja is going for a more possession and short passing game. To me the biggest surprise is how few changes Pareja has made so far.  The team that takes the field on Saturday will probably have 8 players that started the season opener last year (and MLS Cup 2010).  The added players are likely to be Zapata at left back, Castrillon in the center of the midfield, and rookie Tony Cascio up front.  Despite the limited number of changes we'll probably see a completely different style of soccer at the Dick in less than 72 hours.  Out will be the long balls to the forwards and the kick it and run style.  Instead you'll see a team focused on patient build-up and keeping control of the ball.

This is a great plan to play at altitude, making the opposition that's not used to the lack of oxygen chase the ball as much as possible.  How well we pull it off though will be the issue.  I'm not sure we're going to be as successful at it as we're all hoping, at least right away.  I still have major concerns about goal scoring, at least until Casey can prove he's back to his old self, and the 3-man central midfield will leave a lot of work for the wings to do and their ability to do that seems to be a big question mark.  I think that long-term this is a great step for the team to be making, but I'm not expecting big things from their 2012 season as they adapt to this new mentality.

So my predictions for this year:

• The Rapids struggle to hold on to a playoff place all season and miss out on the playoffs in the last couple of games of the season.  The struggle to adapt to the new style early in the season will cost us just enough points to finish 6th in the West and just outside the postseason.
• Due to the unfavorable schedule of two games in Utah before FSL comes to Colorado for the final game the Rapids will lose the Rocky Mountain Cup again.
• Colorado makes a deeper than expected run in the U.S. Open Cup before losing on the road in the semifinals to another MLS team.
• Cascio will be the best rookie the Rapids have seen since Hunter Freeman in 2005.
• Casey comes back just as strong as before and gets at least 10 goals.
• Late in the year, but before the final game, Pablo announces his retirement.

So, what do you see happening?

Wallace Out For The Season

Bad news out of Commerce City today as Anthony Wallace ripped his Achilles in training yesterday and he'll miss 6-9 months.  That means if he takes exactly 6 months and no longer he can get back for the final 7 games.  Realistically he'll be back closer to the final 2 games, at which point hopefully the Rapids will be in their playoff push.  If that's the case odds are they aren't going to want to upset the apple cart re-integrating Wallace into the team.  I think the only way we see Wallace on the field for Colorado this year is if the Rapids are out of the playoff hunt and he gets some time in the last few games to get some minutes in.

That segues into my planned topic for tonight, the first half of the season preview.  I was going to go over the roster by position tonight then do a wrap-up and prediction post midweek before my game preview on Friday.

Goalkeeper:
No changes at all this offesason between the pipes.  Pickens is still the #1, Ceus is the #2, and Joyce is the #3.  The real question will be which Pickens do we get.  The one from the first half of 2011 and earlier or the one from the second half of 2011.  The latter part of the year Pickens seemed to lose a step in his positioning and reaction time.  Maybe it was just the number of games or maybe he's on the backside of his career.  Even with that he was still a solid MLS keeper but he was less likely to "stand on his head" to win us a game we were unlikely to win.  Ceus has shown himself to be a capable keeper but nothing special so far.  Joyce is unlikely to see the field in anything outside a friendly or reserve game.

Defense:
We lost 3 defenders (Comminges, Earls, Holody) and signed two (Freeman, Zapata).
Right Back: Kimura, Ababio
Center Back: Moor, Wynne, Marshall, Palguta
Left Back: Zapata, Freeman, Wallace

Its pretty obvious that left back was an area of concern this offseason as both new players play that position.  As we see with the Wallace news its good that we added that depth as we're going to need it.  We saw last year that Palguta, Moor, and Wynne can also play outside and Ababio has gotten time in the center this preseason so there's some real flexibility in this group which will come in handy if injuries mount up.  Kimura, Moor, and Wynne have been the starting group along the backline for a couple of seasons and they play well when they're in their natural positions with a solid left back.  They struggled when Moor was moved around last year and they lost the familiarity with the lineup.  Hopefully with Zapata and Freeman this group can stay in their natual positions and play to their strengths.

Midfield:
We lost 2 midfielders (Kandji, Nyassi) and signed 4 (Cascio, Castrillon, Rivero, Yamada).
Left Mid:  Cascio, Smith, Thompson
Center Mid: Castrillon, Larentowicz, Mastroeni, Rivero, Armstrong, Emory, Janniere, Nane, Yamada
Right Mid: Mullan, LaBauex

Its kind of hard slotting the midfielders into specific spots.  That's roughly where they would have ended up in last year's 4-4-2 but in this year's 4-3-3 you'll probably see players like Mullan, Smith, and Cascio playing in the front line even though they're listed as midfielders.  This was the area of biggest change this offseason and probably the critical area for success in Colorado this year.  From what we're seeing in preseason we're going to play 3 central midfielders in Larentowicz, Castrillon, and Mastroeni and expect the outside forwards to handle the wings.  How these 3 are able to link up with the front line is going to decide this season.  If the Rapids are forced to go back to playing long ball it will be a long summer, but if this new passing attack can create chances up front we'll see excitement never seen before at the Dick.

Behind the starting 3 there's plenty of depth but most of it is untested.  Only Thompson has significant minutes in MLS and those haven't been particularly impressive.  Rivero is expected to have somewhat of an impact this year but primarily I think they're grooming him to take over Mastroeni's role next season.  Yamada had some good ball movement in Hawaii but he's going to have to work to get playing time.  The rest of the group got limited minutes last year and that probably won't change much this season.  One question that we won't see answered until midyear is where Smith fits into the system.  with his ACL tear I expect it will be June before he's ready to get significant playing time.

Forwards:
We lost 1 forward (Folan) and signed none.
Forwards: Casey, Cummings, Akpan, Amarikwa

On paper both the strongest and weakest group on the team.  There may not be a better strike duo in MLS when Casey and Cummings are healthy, but if their not there isn't much  backing them up.  Akpan and Amarikwa have yet to show they can carry a team's offensive needs.  In the new 4-3-3 we'll probably see a wide midfielder like Mullan or Cascio (or possibly Smith) take the third spot next to the C + C Goal Factory.

Casey won't be healthy until April though, so I wouldn't be shocked to see the rookie Cascio starting on opening day alongside Mullan and Cummings.  Without a holding forward like Casey they're going to be depending on the midfield to get them the ball in a dangerous location.  If Casey can return to form though, look out, this formation could really play to his strength as he holds the ball in the box and is able to either pass to an oncoming forward on either side or turn and shoot if those forwards draw off defenders.

If Casey and Cummings aren't healthy or suffer significant injury the team will have to make a move IMO.  Last year showed that the AA Battery isn't ready to power the offense and I don't think pushing midfielders forward will do it either.

2011 Season Preview

This year starts on a much better note than the last 3 years. Before our first kick of 2011 we'll be raising our 2010 Champions banner (I assume)! That's a much better place to be than on a 3-year playoff drought like last year. With the added CONCACAF Champions League games the Rapids have a full schedule this year. This year's preview will probably be a bit shorter than prior ones, mainly because so little has changed this offseason.

Goalkeeper:
There have been no changes in the nets for the Rapids since the end of MLS Cup 2010. Pickens is still the starter, Joyce is expected to be his backup, and Ceus is the young guy waiting in the wings. While Casey deserved the MLS Cup MVP award, it could have easily been given to Pickens as well. He's one of the more underrated keepers in the league. I feel fairly confident with him in goal. Joyce looked capable in his one start last year, hopefully Pickens back spasms won't reappear but if they do I think we'll be OK.

Defense:
Since I wrote my 2010 preview the Rapids made two major changes to the back line, trading for Marvell Wynne and Anthony Wallace. Wynne was probably the biggest surprise of 2010. When he came over from Toronto most people thought he was a speedy outside back that couldn't read the game well. Gary Smith threw him right into the mix at center back and Wynne excelled. He still relies on his speed more than he should but he's partnered well with Moor. Wallace looks like our left back of the future. He's still working on his positioning (he was way out of position on Dallas' goal in MLs Cup) but that's a teachable skill. Kimura and Moor round out the defense, giving us a very young group. After Baudet and Earls were traded before the expansion draft Tyrone Marshall was added to help bring some experience to that group and Michael Holody was re-signed to join Scott Palguta to give us some depth. Draft pick Eddie Ababio has been offered a contract and Danny Earls is training with the team this week after being cut by Seattle, he may also be re-signed.

Midfield:
The biggest changes in the team this off-season have come in midfield. Claudio Lopez and Ciaran O'Brien were waived after getting little playing time in Colorado. The Rapids traded for Sanna Nyassi (Seattle) and Joseph Nane (Toronto) to replace the lost depth. They've also signed Steven Emory from Metro State. Along with Wells Thompson this gives the Rapids a young set of midfielders to back up the older starting foursome of Mullan, Mastroeni, Larentowicz, and Smith. There's also academy product Davy Armstrong and 2010 draft pick Ross LaBauex who are expected to get experience in the reserve league.

Forward:
C+C Goal Factory is back to make "EVERYBODY DANCE NOW!" for another season. The best strike duo in the league, the only question around Casey and Cummings is when Cummings will eventually be sold to a European team. Depending on how well he plays in the Gold cup and what affect it has on Jamaica's FIFA ranking that could be as soon as the summer transfer window. With the added fixtures and the possibility of losing Cummings the Rapids have been looking to add depth up front and seem to have found it in Caleb Folan from Hull City. The signing has not been officially announced but rumor has it that the deal is done and he'll be arriving this week. Mac Kandji is still rehabbing from the torn ACL he received while forcing the MLS cup winning goal. Anything we get out of him this season should be considered a bonus. Amarikwa and Akpan will get a ton of starts for the reserve squad and spot time as late game subs for the first-team.

Coaching:
Gary Smith made enough right moves last year, and has followed that up with a solid if unspectacular off-season. Looking at the play and the results last year, the biggest mistake he made was sticking with the 4-5-1 far too long,t he team didn't take off until they reverted back to a 4-4-2. When asked about moving Cummings back to the midfield during the Arizona pre-season trip Smith indicated that wasn't likely, so he seems to have learned that lesson. Certainly after the return to the 4-4-2 and the late-season trades the Rapids proved that they could hang with any team in the league, so there was no reason to make significant changes to the starting XI in the off-season.

Front Office:
The Rapids FO did what needed doing this off-season, at least on the field. They didn't make any major moves because none were needed, and the trade of Earls and Baudet for Vaegnas in order to protect players like Kandji and Kimura in the expansion draft was a very good piece of work. Especially now that it looks like we could re-sign Earls anyway. The preset move with Portland to have them pick Wallace (so we could protect Thompson) and then trade him back to us for allocation money shows they learned form their mistake with Harvey last year, and then to grab Nyassi from Seattle (by way of Vancouver) for an international slot was working the system to full effect. The team still has 5 slots to fill, but with players like Folan, Ababio, Janniere, and Bannister still working with the team in various roles there are options to fill those slots. the one thing the FO has yet to do is find a jersey sponsor. For the most part that's no big deal, but the money from it would be nice if we ever wanted to sign a Designated Player.

Intangibles:
The fact that we're returning our starting XI from MLS Cup 2010 means that the team should hit the ground running. With a fairly easy opening 3 games against an expansion team and the worst team from each conference last year. Two of those are home matches, so starting with anything less than 7 points would be a disappointment. Last year the Rapids lost only 2 games at home (and one of those was to the eventual Shield winner) but they had 5 draws so they barely won half their home games. If the Rapids want to push for one of the automatic playoff spots by finishing in the top 3 they need to get that win number to double digits. That would have gotten them 3rd last year.

Prediction:
With the addition of a minimum of 5 more competitive games than the Rapids played all of last year I don't think they'll be pushing for the Supporter's Shield. I do think they're in the upper half of the West and in the top 6 overall. I expect the Rapids to be in a playoff position all season and clinch a spot without too much trouble. The fight will be to avoid the extra wild-card game by finishing in the top 3 in the West. That battle could go down to the final games. The draw for the USOC has us on the road for both play-in games so I expect a quick exit from that competition. Its hard to know what our Champion's League fate will be until we see the draw in August and how the team will approach it, but I expect that we'll at least put up a good fight.

2010 Season Preview

On a 3-year run of missing the playoffs the Rapids enter 2010 needing to turn things around. The team itself, however, has not changed much. If you were to look at the best 11 when healthy last year and compare it to the probable best 11 when healthy this year, there's really only 2 changes. Earls takes over the slot vacated by Harvey's loss in the expansion draft, and Larentowicz will probably supplant LaBrocca as a midfield partner for Pablo. Other than that the same players that I would have wanted to see starting at the end of last year are the same players I'd want to start this year. For a team with a mediocre history, I'm not sure that's a good thing.

Goalkeeper:
Matt Pickens returns as the starter in the nets. He was solid when healthy last season, but I feel like he didn't really win us any games. On the flip side he didn't lose us any game either. I don't expect him to stand out this year either, but he should provide confidence to the back line that he'll be able to do his job. Pickens faced a number of injuries last year and if that continues his backups become a concern. Colorado loaned second-year player Steward Ceus to Charlotte for more seasoning, and brought in Ian Joyce as a backup. Joyce is a young player that's bounced around the lower leagues of England but has never gotten much playing time at a level close to MLS. At this point he's as much of a question mark as a keeper in the draft would be. We need to hope that Pickens stays healthy this year.

Defense:
The Rapids have completely remade their backline since this point last year. Moor and Baudet were brought in mid-season last year. The biggest change in the off-season was the strategic decision to leave Jordan Harvey unprotected in the expansion draft, leading to his selection and departure to Philadelphia. Danny Earls from Rochester was signed to replace him at left back. The closest thing we have to a constant is Kosuke Kimura. In this group we have two young guys that have shown potential (Moor, Kimura), a wizened vet (Baudet), and a question mark (Earls). There's also a good amount of depth with Palguta getting significant playing time last season, Holody got some late-game time, Valentino has gotten significant work this preseason, and newcomer Oscar Murillo form Colombia. The key will be how well the starting 4 gel and can cover for each other, but I feel fairly comfortable with our defense.

Midfield:
The biggest off-season addition for Colorado was in midfield. We sent away Cory Gibbs and Preston Burpo to acquire center mid Jeff Larentowicz and backup winger Wells Thompson. This gives the Rapids a solid 1-2 combo of Mastroeni and Larentowicz in the center of the park, with LaBrocca as a solid backup or utility man. Unfortunately our greatest weakness last season was depth on the wings and we aren't in much better shape this year. Jamie Smith and Colin Clark are returning from season-ending injuries and Wells Thompson is really the only natural winger we have as a backup. Ciaran O'Brien would be a possible sub, but he seems to be out of favor with Gary Smith. One of our two draft signings, Ross LaBauex may be able to help, as well as trialist Andy Lorei if he signs, but we're really banking on not repeating the injuries of last year. The less said about our last midfielder, Ballouchy, the better. If Clark and Smith can come back to their form and stay healthy we have the possibility of having one of the better midfield groups in MLS with Clark, Larentowicz, Mastroeni, and Smith. Any long term absences though and we'll be hurting.

Forward:
Clearly our best two players last season were our Dynamic Duo of Conor Casey and Omar Cummings up front. If we're going to make some noise this season that will probably have to happen again. Omar and Conor are a legitimate contender for the best forward tandem in the league. After that though our depth amounts to new draftee Andre Akpan. This is a disaster waiting to happen. There's still a decent chance that Casey will miss significant time by joining the World Cup team, and even if he doesn't any sort of injury to our top 2 leaves us relying on a MLS rookie with nobody behind him. Should Casey and Cummings continue their form from the first 75% of last year we shouldn't have to worry too much about scoring but that's putting most of our eggs in that basket.

Coaching:
In his first full year Gary Smith didn't make any big mistakes wen it comes to his game time coaching. His roster construction leaves much to be desired however, something we've seen continue into this off-season. We go into the 2010 campaign with only 1 backup forward and really only 1 backup winger, while we have 3 defensive midfielders and a couple of general midfielders seemingly without an obvious natural position. Given the natural wear and tear of a season I expect this will come back to hurt us. Other than that Smith has not impressed me, but he hasn't really screwed anything up. Still, with a 3-year run of missing the playoffs he has to be feeling the pressure this season.

Front Office:
The decision to leave Jordan Harvey unprotected was a bad one, there's no away around it. Protecting him of Cory Gibbs made no sense, and while we were later able to trade Gibbs for Larentowicz, I think Gibbs would have been passed over by Philly anyway. The FO did a good job trading the dead weight of Gibbs and Burpo for Larentowica and Thompson, but the team still seems to have no interest in using its DP slot. Combined with the lack of backups in vital positions I wonder what the Front Office spent most of the off-season doing. Out of the four draft picks only the two signed by the league pre-draft made the roster, and we went out and signed Danny Earls and a backup defender and GK. Not hat much going on. I expect we'll need the Front Office to step up and make some mid-season moves if we're going to contend.

Intangibles:
Once again the Rapids failed to win much more than 50% of their home games. We dropped 16 out of 45 points at home and missed the playoff by a point. That has to change in order to be competitive. I think breaking 30 points at home should be the minimum expectation for a place with the best natural advantage in the league.

The flip side to not making many changes in the off-season is that the team should be fairly comfortable with each other from the start. There shouldn't be that much "ramp up" time as the team figures out how to play as a unit.

Prediction:
This off-season the Rapids made one major improvement (Larentowicz) and one major decline (Harvey). Everything else was pretty much neutral. Our lack of depth is still a very big concern to me. For us to be a real threat we need to have all the breaks go our way. We need to have no major injuries, Casey and Cummings need to repeat their 2009 seasons, and our young players need to prove that they're up to MLS standards right away. If that happens I can see us making the playoffs with a few games to spare and being a threat to make a run. I don't see good odds for all that happening though, so I'm expecting that for yet another season the Rapids playoff chances will come right down to the wire. In the end I think we come up short for the 4th season in a row.

2009 Season Preview

The Rapids enter 2009 looking very much like the team that ended 2008. The only significant change in the team was in the nets, and there's a good chance that the only starter on Saturday night that won't have been on the roster at the end of 2008 will be goalkeeper Matt Pickens. The big change to the Rapids is behind the scenes. Gary Smith was given full control of the team after being the interim coach for the last third of 2008, and Paul Bravo joined the Front Office as Technical Director. While the players haven't changed much, hopefully the style and mentality of the team has been overhauled from the failed Clavijo area. I'll break this preview down by position to see where we stand heading into 2009.

Goalkeeper:
Bouna Time! has ended in Colorado. After passing on a contract that would have made him one of the top 5 paid keepers in MLS Bouna Coundoul has decided to try his luck in Europe. The Rapids moved quickly to fill this hole, swapping 2nd round picks with Chicago and sending allocation money to the Windy City on draft day for the rights to Matt Pickens. They followed that up by drafting Steward Ceus, who followed Coundoul at the University of Albany. Preston Burpo returns from 2008 to round out the goalkeeping trio. Pickens is expected to be the starter and there shouldn't be much difference between him and Coundoul. Pickens has spent time with the U.S. Nats, but is not in the picture for the 2010 World Cup. We may lose his services during the Gold Cup though, as I expect to see some of the second and third string Nats called up for that competition as the first-team players have plenty of work this year with the Confederations Cup and World Cup Qualifiers. His backup early on will probably be Burpo, but Ceus may challenge quickly. Ceus displaced Justin Hughes on the roster, who was caught int he roster crunch when the reserve league was eliminated.

Defense:
The Rapids churned through a number of players on defense this offseason. They waived Tim Ward, Mike Petke and Stephen Keel, and did not offer Jose Burciaga a new contract. To replace the departing players they traded a draft pick to LA for the rights to Ty Harden and they got Ivan Guerrero from DC in the Christian Gomez trade. They also signed Kosuke Kimura, Ugo Ihemelu, and Jordan Harvey to long term deals. It appears that the Rapids are on the verge of announcing the signing of Scott Palguta from Rochester as well. The signing has been long rumored and Palguta has been added to the team roster on MLSnet. This leaves them with a number of young players in defense, plus Cory Gibbs and Ivan Guerrero to try to lead them. The Rapids have been rumored to be trying to sign 2 other defenders, draft pick Mike Holody and Julien Baudet from Crewe in England. Baudet would bring the experience and leadership this group lacks, but at what price. Baudet won't be available until June though, and with Palguta apparently signed Holody is probably unnecessary so we'll start the season with a back line of Kimura - Ihemelu - Gibbs - Harvey, with Harden and Guerrero being options depending on what strategy the coach employs. That's a good deal of youth so we can expect some growing pains, but if the Rapids can keep the majority of this group together that's a pretty solid line to build on for the next few years.

Midfield:
The big off-season move was the trade of Christian Gomez. Gomez obviously didn't fit into Gary Smith's plan so it was just a matter of time before he was moved. The Rapids actually did a pretty good job of getting value back for him, getting their DP slot and a player back. Not a bad recovery from a disastrous trade. The one thing the Rapids haven't done yet is fill the need his departure created and it appears that Smith is happy using LaBrocca or Ballouchy int he role of attacking midfielder. I think this will be a weakness for the team as neither one has shown (in admittedly limited playing time) that they can run an MLS offense. Outside of the attacking mid position the midfield is the strength of the Rapids with Mastroeni, Cooke, and Clark. It appears though that Smith may be starting Peterson in place of Cooke, something I find very surprising, but supposedly he's been working with Jacob int he offseason. Still Cooke is available to shore up that side if we need it. If the Rapids can find a central midfielder then they are good to go.

Forward:
The Rapids ended the 2008 season with only Conor Casey, Omar Cummings, and Tom McManus on the roster as true forwards. They are starting the 2009 season with only Conor Casey, Omar Cummings, and Jordan Schunk on the roster as true forwards. I think you can see the problem there. There seems to be a good deal of faith that Casey can keep up the strike rate he finished the season with (6 goals in 5 games) but looking at his career stats I don't see that happening. That means Cummings is going to have to finally take the next step and claim a role as a sure starter or we're going to be hurting. Smith has lots of good things to say about Schunk, but he his a rookie and we shouldn't expect much from him yet. The Rapids also acquired the rights to Gregory Richardson from Trindad & Tobago's Joe Public. Richardson lit up New England for 4 goals in a Champions League game, which put him on every MLS radar, but that's the extent of his competition against MLS teams. He's not signed yet but he could give us some depth. The Rapids have also been linked with a summer move for Jason Euell, but that rumor has died down lately and I'm not sure if he'd be worth the money he would demand. Whatever the Rapids do they need to find depth up front, preferably in the form of a sure starter to pair with Casey.

Coaching:
The big change for Colorado is on the sidelines as Gary Smith takes over for Fernando Clavijo. It was obvious more than a year ago that Clavijo had lost the plot as a MLS coach and the move was far overdue. Smith seems to have the respect of the players, as many of them have talked about how much better things are after Clavijo, but it remains to be seen if he can guide a MLS side. He's brought in Steve Guppy as his assistant coach and re-signed David Kramer as GK coach. From all indications, plus the backgrounds of Smith and Guppy, we can expect a traditional "English style" 4-4-2 this year. Unlike a number of fans I don't really care if the Rapids win pretty, as long as they win, so I'm not dreading seeing the English game, yet. Smith has said all the right things this offseason, and has talked about working one on one with players like Peterson and Clark, which is more than we ever heard from Clavijo. The proof is in the pudding though, or in this case, on the scoreboard.

Front Office:
The Rapids signed Paul Bravo as the Technical Director, which seems to amount to something along the lines of "General Manager for Soccer Operations". He'll be responsible for scouting and the youth teams and support the coaching staff of the first team. This is a much needed position in the Rapids FO as it seemed that after you got past the coaching staff there was no soccer knowledge in the organization. It paid immediate dividends as within 48 hours Bravo was able to deal for Ty Harden. In fact the Rapids didn't make a single bad move this offseason in my opinion, the only mistake they seemed to have made is not making enough good ones. If they can keep that track record up then we won't have to worry about puzzling midseason moves like we've seen in past years.

Intangeables:
The Rapids have not been successful in making their new home at the Dick a fortress. For a team that has the best natural home-field advantage dropping any points at home should be seen as failure to be avoided at all costs. Since they opened the stadium the Rapids have won less than 50% of their games there, and finished 1-2 wins out of the playoffs. If Colorado is to be successful in 2009 they need to challenge for double-digit wins at home. The road is always a tough place to play in MLS, but the team seemed to turn it around late last season with wins against Chivas and NY on the road. If the team can start winning, they'll get more support form the fans which will increase the home field advantage.

Prediction:
This offseason I think the Rapids did not significantly improve in any area except coaching. Given how bad Clavijo was, that's a significant step forward. I expect the Rapids to be in the playoff battle but it will go down to the last couple of games before they know if they make the playoffs or not. I think they're short a an above average player at central mid or forward in order to feel confident of making a playoffs. Filling both those holes with quality players would make the Rapids a team to take seriously when it comes to MLS Cup. The Rapids do have the type of squad and coaching who could make a deep run in the U.S. Open Cup. They have the youth and depth (everywhere but up front) to bounce back from weekend games and be ready for the mid-week Cup games, and Smith and Guppy know the value of a cup run. I would not be surprised to see Colorado get at least to the quarterfinals.