Season Preview and Predictions

Hard to believe, but its game week!  The Rapids start the 2022 season Thursday in Guatemala for the Champions  League.  We'll have more on that match on Wednesday.  Tomorrow is the official jersey reveal which I'll post tomorrow.  So that leaves tonight for the Sean Preview and my annual Predictions.

Before we get to that though, a quick update on our final preseason scrimmage against Orlando on Friday.  The teams played to a 1-1 draw, with the Rapids giving up the goal in the first 3 minutes and Rubio levelling it just before half.  The starting XI is the same group we've seen most of preseason, while Kaye, Max, and Bryan Acosta all got their first minutes with the team this preseason in the second half (MAK and Acosta played the whole half, Max got the last 30 minutes).  I think its clear that the first half group, with MAK probably replacing Warner, is likely what we'll see on Thursday night.

We finish off the preseason and go into meaningful games with Shinyashiki and Mezquida being the big names to have gotten no game time.  I believe this is likely due to their travelling to complete green cards which is more beneficial in the long run.  Matt Hundley and Abe Rodriguez also got no playing time, but as players that would be very surprising to get any time in the regular season that's not a concern.  None of our draftees got time in this one, and only Markanich travelled to Orlando with the team.  Also Galvan has gotten no time this preseason, but we sadly know why.

So that's how we enter the season.  That is to say, we enter 2022 pretty much how we left 2021.  With a quality squad of 'distressed assets' that is greater than the sum of its parts, but with nobody who will put the team on their shoulders and will them to victory.  This is still a group effort with no true stars.  There are certainly advantages to that strategy, but we've seen the drawbacks in the last two years when we hit the playoffs (but hey, we're hitting the playoffs in back-to-back years!).

The positive side to this strategy is the drop-off from the best player to the eighteenth best player on this roster is probably the smallest in the league.  If Price/Trusty/Yarbrough are your top players, having Warner /Keita/Irwin at the end of your bench is a solid place to be.  You don't have much concern mix and matching to put together a lineup.  We're two deep with acceptable MLS starters in almost every position, which defense being a little questionable.  Our apparent plan to play 5 in the back though helps with that, because if things do get thin we can morph into a 4-man backline.

The problem is the same one we saw last year.  There are going to be games where it just doesn't work.  The passes aren't linking together, the forwards aren't finding space, and the back line isn't in sync.  When that happens there's not enough "top-level" MLS talent to find a way to win without a majority of the team being on.  The one top piece we can rely on though is on the sideline.  Fraser should have been coach of the year last year, and there's no reason his ability to analyze tactics and adjust should be any worse this season.  So there will be very few games where we're played off the pitch.

The lack of real investment in this team this offseason will be the Achilles' heel.  A vast majority of MLS teams went out and spent real money this offseason to increase the talent in the league.  We're one of the few that didn't.  Spending money doesn't mean you win (see the 2021 Rapids success) but when everyone is doing it and you aren't your already thin margin for error shrinks to almost zero.  We're going to have to be perfect for 34 games to repeat our finish from last year, and we won't be.  That said, we still have good MLS qualify.  This is easily a playoff team, but this year is going to be a lot more work and less fun than last season.

So with that, on to the predictions!  As always I'll circle back at the end of the season to see how I did.

• The Rapids make the playoffs without too much sweat, but in 5th place so they don't host a playoff game
• Because of that they're one and done again
• Colorado beats Comunicaciones in the first round of the CCL, marking the first time they've ever advanced in that competition, but then gets knocked out by NYCFC in the next round
• Because they get a bye to the 4th round of USOC play, to allow for CCL play, they end up facing off against another MLS team and do not advance from their first game
• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup, somehow
• We will not make a significant signing before the season starts in 12 days
• This summer we sign what is a notable #9 for the Rapids, but he does not have a significant impact on the 2022 season (but looks like a good signing for the future)
• Barrios wins the Golden Boot again
• Rubio does not finish the season in Colorado
• Max shows us what the Rapids saw in him, but it takes a bit before we see it
• Bassett has a quiet end of the 2021-22 season for Feyenoord, but comes out on fire in the fall
• Trusty leaving hurts the team in the last third of the season as Keita won't really be starter ready until after he takes his lumps this year.
• Trusty becomes a late scratch from the WC roster.  Kellyn Acosta goes to Qatar (yes, we qualify) as does Sam Vines