2024 Preview and Predictions

Last week I mentioned reviewing the C38 letter and evaluating what the Front Office did this offseason to do better.  As I started writing that recap on Monday night though I realized that a good part off that letter references things I don't have a way of forming an opinion on yet.  Is the team better on the field?  I don't know, we haven't played a real game yet.  Is the experience at the stadium improved?  I don't know, I haven't been out there yet.  It didn't seem fair to really go into those until we have some actual experiences and data to go on.  So at a good point in the next month or two I'll circle back on that.

So that means we're on to the preview and predictions.  Perfect timing as the season just kicked off with me actually rooting for Messi to win, of course they are hosting FSL tonight.

This offseason the Rapids actually went out and found some solid players and spent some real money.  The big problem, from my POV, is they didn't spend money on the two critical spots they had to fill coming out of 2023.  Namely defensive mid and striker.  Instead at both positions we have a player on a loan that ends in July and questionable depth behind him.  Our season rides on how well those two players do, particularly Navarro at striker, and if they earn a full transfer that we actually pull the trigger on.

Away from those two positions this is a pretty strong starting XI.  Zack Steffen in net fixes the hole created by botching the Yarbrough succession plan/Ilic transfer last season.  Maxso and Rosenberry can be expected to at least be MLS quality on the back line and likely supporting the young but talented Bombito between them.  And of course the most fam-friendly move of the season was bringing Sam Vines back at LB to fill the hole created when Sam Vines left really locks down that position.  In midfield Ronan and Bassett are back but with new friends on the outside, Mihailovic and Fernandez should provide better service than anything we saw last year.

After that the depth has some questions.  Striker is the exact same depth as last year, which wasn't good.  Our winger depth are the starters from last year, Cabral and Lewis, which, eh.  Our defense at least has some strength in numbers with Abubakar and Anderson giving us some options if needed.  Overall those this season will largely rise or fall based on our starting XI.  Löffelsend at d-mind is the only backup I expect might break through to really push for starting time.

The talking heads of MLS media seem to think the same way.  Between MLSsoccer.com and the Athletic 22 people have put out predicted final conference standings.  Only 7 of them think the Rapids make the playoffs.  This after an offseason of a club record transfer fee on Mihailovic , grabbing two other fringe National teamers in Steffan and Vines, and bringing in two other starters in Diack and Fernandez.  That's a big amount of investment by this FO, arguably the biggest ever, and the general response seems to be "eh, not enough".  Brutal.  That tells you how much of a hole this team is in.

Ok, on to predictions.  I've been getting steadily worse with these, we'll see if this is the year to reverse my fortunes.

• The Rapids either don't participate in the USOC (due to the ongoing negotiations between the USSF and MLS) or if they do they get knocked out in their first two rounds to another MLS team.
• They also don't get out of their Leagues Cup group, but give Portland a scare in Portland.  Leon is too much for them at home in Colorado though.
• And to finish out the competitions, they finish 10th overall and miss the playoffs.  They're eliminated in the next-to-last week.
• All that said, the team is improved and plays entertaining soccer at times.  It won't be the pointless soccer we saw last season.
• The rapids don't buy Diack or Navarro at their current price this summer.  Navarro doesn't show enough to be worth $4.5M and Diack gets renegotiated to a lower number before we complete the transfer.
• Needing a striker to replace Navarro Colorado makes a big trade within MLS for a striker in the summer window.
• Mihailovic is the Golden Boot and Player of the Year.  He gets back into the National Team picture by the end of the season.
• Steffen gets a look by the Nats for either the Gold Cup or the Copa, and becomes part of the regular Nats rotation.
• Vines is Defensive Player of the Year but doesn't get a Nats look.
• With trips to Portland, Salt Lake, Seattle, and LAFC in the first 6 weeks the Rapids will be looking up the table all season after getting no more than 2 points out of those 4 games.
• Because of that, and the fact that we have to go back to Sandy in May before FSL comes to Colorado, we once again fail to win the Rocky Mountain Cup.

Ok, that's pretty pessimistic.  But after 2023 can you blame me?