Playoff Clinching Scenarios

After tonight's results our playoff clinching scenarios this weekend become easy.

The Rapids clinch a playoff spot with a win OR a draw

That's it, a loss means we can't clinch this weekend.  The fastest way to clinch without winning is two losses KC or Seattle (not two losses between them, two losses by one of them).

Rapids Surrender 2 Points By Not Caring

Kickoff

Badji scores 8 minutes in

Azira gets a yellow, suspending him next game

The rest of the half

Vancouver scores 6 minutes into the second half

Vancouver gives it back 6 minutes later with a PK and a red card

Gashi scores the PK

Vancouver scores in the 70th minute down a man

5 minutes later Gashi hits a stunning free kick goal

Vancouver ties the game again down a man in the last minute of stoppage

This team (coaches and players) has been coasting on the results from the first half of the season.  Nobody is stepping up and driving this team to a win in crunch time.

Man of the Match: Shkelzen Gashi.  Two goals makes this an easy choice.  First multi-goal game from a Rapid this season.

54' 40" Or Fight!

Rapids. Whitecaps. Its going to be wet.

A final trip to Canada, at least in the regular season, is up tomorrow for the Rapids.  Vancouver is barely holing on to playoff hopes and a loss combined with an KC win would all but eliminate them this weekend.  Meanwhile the Rapids need a win to stay in the Shield race.  Game time tomorrow is 5pm on Altitude.

Player Availability:

OUT: D Bobby Burling (toe); M Dillon Serna (season ending ACL tear); M Jermaine Jones (quad)

QUESTIONABLE: D Sean St. Ledger (knee); F Kevin Doyle (toe)

ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: D Axel Sjoberg (5 games until good behavior reduction); M Micheal Azira (4 games)

The only improvement from last week is Doyle is at least Questionable now.  Still, not great.  Vancouver is down 3 players to injury.

Starting XI Prediction:

I'm really hoping we see Gashi on top but I wouldn't be socked by Badji.  Otherwise I think Pablo is going to "stay the course" on the lineup as much as possible.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Hairston.  Vancouver has the worst defense in the West and an average offense.  I think, even on turf, we can gt a point out of this game but our play has been so uneven of late I'm not confident in a win.

Rapids Saved By Other Team's Failures

The Rapids threw away a great chance to take a leading role in the end of the season by playing overly defensive and with a lack of talent on the field in a 0-0 draw with San Jose Saturday night.

Pablo's stubborn determination to stick with the 4-2-3-1 in every circumstance and his belief that effort in practice trumps talent is killing this team. Sometimes you just have to put the talent on the field if you're going to be better than the other team.  Calvert gets more time than Pappa, really?

In 2015 everyone in the FO agreed our issue was a lack of offense and they said they were going to go get offensive talent this offseason, and they actually did. So why are we starting all the same offensive players from 2015 save Le Toux? Gashi and Pappa need to be starting at this point because the 2015 crew isn't getting the job done.

All that said, the players that did start didn't seem to be putting out the practice effort that got them the start. Badji's woeful ball skills killed two one on ones a decent striker would have scored. On the first he decided to round the keeper and then touched the ball less than arm's length from the keeper making it easy for the keeper to redirect it and force him into a bad angle. The second he decided to beat the keeper on the shot and shot right at him. Powers just kills attacks. Hairston's touches were all over the place. Cronin keep shooting long and not getting it past the first guy. Gashi's two shots were very very bad. Poor coaching, poor effort, poor talent on the field.

We could have all but wrapped up a top 3 finish with a win tonight and put real pressure on LA, Dallas, and TFC to keep up with us. Instead we wasted another 2 home points. At least I shouldn't have to worry about the Shield race. Any team that can't beat the Quakes at home shouldn't be winning the Shield.  However Dallas, LA, and Toronto all drew as well so the Shield race is exactly where it was before this weekend started, so we still have a great opportunity.

With FSL losing and both NY teams getting draws our chances of claiming a CCL spot went up slightly this weekend.  Toronto is now a heavy favorite to win the East and send that CCL spot to the best American team who hasn't qualified yet and there's a better chance now the top 3 teams in the West will be the already qualified Dallas (through their USOC win), LA, and us.  So the two CCL spots for regular season finish are more likely to go to LA and us after this weekend's results.

For the first time since I've been tracking it the Bodmer Line has gone to 0.  47 points is the average point total for the 6th placed team in a 34 game season so we've done enough for a playoff spot.  In reality it looks like the 6th placed team will have less than 47 points this year so we're really looking at probably a top 3 finish, maybe 4th at the worst.

Man of the Match: Sam Cronin.  This is partially for a decent game on Saturday, at least he was trying to put shots on goal, and partially for a general recognition of his good play this season.

Play To Win

Pretty sure I've used this one before

Tomorrow night we start the critical final seven game run to the playoffs.  We still have a shot at the Shield, the top spot in the West, or a CCL spt (or possibly all 3).  The run has to start now with a win over San Jose in 24 hours.  The problem?  We're 0 for our last 13 against SJ and 0 for our last 10 against them here in Colorado.  That streak has to change tomorrow.  Game time is 7pm so the tailgate starts a 4.  Altitude will have the broadcast with Fleming and 'Celo.

Player Availability:

OUT: D Bobby Burling (toe); M Dillon Serna (season ending ACL tear); M Jermaine Jones (quad); F Kevin Doyle (toe)

QUESTIONABLE: D Sean St. Ledger (knee)

ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: M Micheal Azira (5 games until good behavior reduction)

Nothing good about that list.  While Doyle, Serna, and St. Ledger are no surprise everyone was hoping Burling and Doyle would be available.  San Jose is missing 5 players to injury with former Rapid Amarikwa listed as questionable

Starting XI Prediction:

There's actually a number of ways Pablo could go.  We could see Gashi up top with Pappa (or Powers) in the hole behind him.  We could see Pappa on the outside or Powers at d-mid.  We could see Watts in the middle of the back line and Miller outside or on the bench.  This is my best guess though.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Gashi.  SJ has a worse offense than we do so even missing Burling I think we get a shut out.  The real key will be finding a winning goal against the 3rd best defense.  Two great defenses, two bad offenses, this won't be thrilling soccer.