Playoff Race - 3 Games To Go

Ok, with 3 games to go the group above is who the Rapids can theoretically pass or be passed by. Note that chart includes a point for Portland as they are currently tied with Vancouver in the 34th minute, so they could drop back a point or add two more by the time you read this.  Realistically though, we aren't catching Seattle or Austin, and probably not Portland.  This is really about who can catch us more than who we can catch.

Lets look at what each of the 4 teams behind us has left:

Dallas: They go to Portland this weekend, then a home and home over the following two weekends with the Galaxy before finishing in Vancouver.

That two-legged tie with LA is bad news for the Rapids.  At this point the only thing the defending champs have to play for is to make up 3 points on Montreal to avoid the Wooden Spoon, something that might be clinched before the second Galaxy-Dallas game.  Also Dallas is hot and Portland only has 2 league wins since mid-July (though they just went up 1-0 as I type this).  Getting the Timbers on short rest is a bonus for them.

Houston: The Dynamo are in Nashville this weekend, then host San Diego before finishing in KC.

I don't see them making the playoffs.  Maybe they get a win in Nashville this weekend, though it seems unlikely.  San Diego should crush them, and by the time they het to KC they may already be eliminated, though that should be 3 points if there's any fight left.

San Jose: A trip down the coast to San Diego, a trip up the coast to Vancouver, and then Austin at home to finish out the season.  The Earthquakes are toast.  They'll be lucky to get another win.

FSL: The Utah Soccer Club has Austin in Utah this weekend, then the Rocky Mountain Cup finale next weekend.  After that its a trip to Seattle and they finish in St. Louis.

I expect them to struggle in Seattle but cruise in St. Louis unless things have gone bad and they've been eliminated.  A win this weekend over Austin is certainly possible.  And I expect nothing but pain from our trip to Utah.

Of course while all of this is going on we've got Minnesota this weekend, the aforementioned trip to the dark place, and LAFC at home on Decision Day.

I think Houston and San Jose are out of it barring meltdowns by at least two other other three.  This is a battle between Dallas, FSL, and us for the two wild card spots.  Given their schedule if Dallas beats Portland this weekend I can see them catching Portland and forcing them into the wild-card bout Portland won't drop all the way out of the playoffs.

I still think 42 points are enough to make the playoffs, I am no longer sure we can get to 42 though.  This could very well come down to the result next weekend in Sandy.  The winner is probably going to make the playoffs and the loser may very well not.  We can't count on any points after this weekend given our history in Utah and LAFC's quality.  If we can beat Minnesota we should be in.  If we can't its feels like we're going to be on the outside looking in.

Season Ends With A Whimper

Sadly surprising nobody the Rapids were swept out of the playoffs Friday night by a 4-1 score line that isn't really a fair reflection of the game.  Really the teams were fairly even until LA was able to take advantage of a Rapids side desperately pushing for a late equalizer to score twice in second half stoppage time.

Before that a freak early goal is all the separated the teams.  In the very definition of #ThatsSoRapids a Steffen clearance from the edge of the box in the 8th minute went off an LA attacker and rebounded into the empty goal to give them an early lead.  Colorado clawed back into it with their first playoff goal in 8 years by of all people, Oli Larraz.  The last time the Rapids had scored a goal in the post season it was 33 year old Kevin Doyle doing it when, as a fellow C38 member pointed out, Larraz couldn't even drive yet.  LA would take the lead back right before half on a perfectly placed shot despite being defended well and Steffen having the goal well covered.

In then end this team ran out of gas after the Leagues Cup.  Combined with the Cole Bassett injury (something he unnecessarily apologized for on Twitter/X this weekend) and Mihailovic fighting through a bad ankle injury just to play in Game 2 there wasn't enough in the tank to get past a very good Galaxy side.  Its disappointing to see the team end a good season on a 6 game losing streak (and 7 of their last 8) and shows why the quiet summer window was a missed opportunity, but we shouldn't let that overshadow things like the 3rd place in Leagues Cup, winning the Rocky Mountain Cup, and just bouncing back from our worst season ever to be in the mix for a top 4 finish in the West into late September.

We'll get into the normal end of season coverage this week then a bit of a break as I have to go to Las Vegas for work next week.  The first real big date coming up is December 10th when the draw for next season's CONCACAF Champions Cup will be held and we'll find out our opponent for the games in February.  We'll get roster updates before that probably, and we have an expansion draft coming up as well.

Man Of The Match: Oliver Larraz.  Score a playoff goal, get MOTM.

Rapids Season Likely Finishes Tomorrow Night

I hate to start off so negative but all signs point to the Rapids being swept out of the playoffs tomorrow night.  The injury report isn't particularly hopeful and we haven't played well in two months.  Still, that's why they play the games.  Worst case we get one more chance to support the Burgundy Boys at home this season and hopefully we get our first playoff goal in 8 years.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30pm and C38 will be doing one last-full tailgate to finish off the season.

(If you're wondering the Rapids could host another game if they faced Vancouver in the Western Conference final or Atlanta, NYCFC, or RBY in MLS Cup.  All of that is VERY unlikely though.)

Player Availability:

OUT: D Michael Edwards (back)

QUESTIONABLE: M Cole Bassett (quad), M Djordje Mihailovic (ankle)

Bassett was not on the injury report for Game 1 so he's essentially been downgraded this week, while Mihailovic has been upgraded from Out to Questionable.  Reports from training have been that Djordje has been training with the full team and could start while Cole has still be training on his own on the side and might be available off the bench.  In reality he hasn't played in 5 games so there's no way we could expect much more than 20-30 minutes out of him at best.

I think DM gets the start and Bassett will likely be on the bench, but we won't see him unless we need a goal.  Otherwise the rest of the starters are fairly straight-forward.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Mihailovic.  Things are just too stacked against us to expect anything other than a loss.  We'll keep it much closer than we did in LA, but in the end LA has better talent and will have it all on the field, unlike us.  Plus they've had our number this season.

Pitiful

In his pre-game interview on MLS Season Pass Chris Armas said that they felt if they got 2 goals they could win the match.  It wouldn't have been close to enough given that we lost 5-0.  Oh, and the team managed a combined 1 shot, not even on target, so I have no idea how Armas thought we were going to score 2 goals on Saturday night.

I understand we were down arguably 3 of our best 4 players this season (Mihailovic, Basset, and Bombito, leaving only Navarro).  I know this was our 42nd competitive game this season and Maxso, Steffen, Rosenberry and Navarro have all played over a full season's worth of minutes already, with Larraz and Ronan getting close.  I understand that we're the 7th seed and LA is much better than us, especially at home.

None of that excuses giving up 5 goals, our worst ever playoff loss (and one off our worst ever loss) and only answering with a measly shot.  Its like the team didn't even bother to get on the plane to LA.  Heck, if we had done that it would have only been a 3-0 official forfeit.  This has happened far too often this season (6 times we've lost by 4 or more, most since 2014) and it would be nice to see some spine and fight from the team instead of completely giving up in these games.

The good news, if there is any, is that aggregate score doesn't matter.  We wipe the slate clean and if we win the next two we advance.  No, I don't really expect that to happen but there's at least a shot.  Even if we lose Friday night and our season ends we at least have a chance to go out playing better than that.  At the very least lets at least get our first playoff goal since 2016.

OG Playoff Matchup

My apologies for my silence.  As I mentioned I wasn't going to have a preview for the Austin match and that's because I was in Tokyo on vacation.  If you follow me on Twitter/BlueSky you saw my live-thread of going to see a J2-League matchup between JEF United Chiba and Ventforet Kofu at this time last week.  I'll have a writeup of that here next week.  My plan was to get home On Tuesday and do an Austin post-game Tuesday night or Wednesday but I brought a head cold home with me and this is the first time in the last 72 hours where I could focus on writing something so we'll go straight to the playoff preview.

Tomorrow night we're on the road in LA-LA land for the first of the best of 3 series against the Galaxy.  This is an OG Western Conference playoff matchup between the only two teams to have played all 29 seasons in the Western Conference.  It was also for a long-time the most played competitive fixture (including regular season, playoffs, USOC, etc.) between MLS teams.  I haven't seen an update to that list in close to 10 years though so I don't know if it's still the case.  Regardless these are two teams that know each other quite well.  The Galaxy are also the last team we've beaten in the playoffs, going back to that epic series in 2016.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 9pm so plan for a late night.  And remember, in the best of 3 series there are no ties.  If its level after 90 minutes we go straight to a PK shootout to determine a winner.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Djordje Mihailovic (ankle)

Not a surprise after what happened in Austin to see Sjordje out for this one.  All signs point to him being prepped to return Friday night.  Great to see Bassett and Steffen back as well as Cabral.

I think Armas will use Bassett at the 10 but I'd prefer to see him at his normal 8 and maybe use Yapi up front with Navarro.  Cabral won't start but he'll be the first option off the bench.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Navarro.  So far this season we've lost 3-2 and 3-1 to the Galaxy and I don't see that changing tomorrow.  We should try to play this like we played the Club America game, being satisfied with a scoreless draw and trying to win it in PKs but I don't think we'll be successful at that.  Once LA gets one and forces us to attack they'll find a second.  We'll get one back but it won't be enough.

Thanksgiving Futbol

Happy Thanksgiving!  Hopefully if you're not spending it with me and 17,000 other members of our Rapids family you're spending it with your family, in whatever shape that takes.  And hopefully they have FOX because our Burgundy Boys are taking on the timbers at 2:30 MT.  This is what the Rapids have always wanted.  #1 seed, home-field advantage, and a shot at MLS Cup.  Time to take advantage of what we earned in the regular season.

No injuries, no discipline, and no international absences.  Everyone on the roster (that wasn't loaned out) is available tomorrow.  We've had 18 days off so everyone is fully rested.  Fraser can choose whatever lineup he wants.

I expect us to us the same 5-4-1/5-2-3 we used against Portland in both our regular season games.  The key to breaking down Portland's defense is their wingbacks.  Galvan was successful against Portland in the last match at home so that's why I see him starting on the left with Barrios using his speed on the right.  Out striker could be any one of Rubio, Lewis, or Badji but I think Diego gets the nod.  Acosta gets the left wing-back spot so Kaye and Price can be in the center.  I expect Rosenberry, as possibly our most reliable defender, to start on the right but it could be Acosta on the right and Esteves on the left (how we lined up in the home game against Portland).  And of course the big 3 along the back line with Will behind them.  Given that the big threat from Portland is Blanco, I'd be half tempted to tell Trusty "you've got one job when the ball is in our half, find Blanco and stick to him like glue".  But that's why I'm writing this and Robin is coaching.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Barrios and Bassett.  Really the key in this game is not to give up an early goal, or really go behind at all.  As long as Portland has to find a goal the game favors us.  They're on short rest and at altitude.  If they get ahead they're going to go into a shell and park the bus, something we've struggled to break this season.  I think we get a first-half goal and then with Portland chasing in the second and getting tired we double the lead.  They get one back to push us the full 90  but we win and wait to see if we host SKC or FSL for a spot in MLS Cup.

Colorado vs. Portland - Regular Season Matchups

With Portland coming for Thanksgiving we should look back at how we did against them this season.  Both games took place late in the year, one in mid-September and one in late-October.

In our mid-September game we travelled to Portland midweek in-between home games against the Galaxy and Vancouver.  This was during our run of 4 draws in September that we thought had cost us a shot at the 1 seed (it did probably cost us a shot at the Shield).  We lined up in the 5-4-1/5-2-3 formation we used most of the last half of the season.  Lewis played forward with Bassett and Shinyashiki on the outside, Kaye and Price in midfield, Rosneberry and Galvan at wingbacks, and the big 3 in the center.  This was the game that Portland's Tuiloma got a red card right before half.  He had a yellow card in the 33rd minute, then had a red card and yellow card tackle within 5 seconds in the 42nd minute.

At that point the Rapids were feeling fairly confident about their chances and they turned that into a goal by Lewis in the 63rd, only for Portland to level it in the 67th.  Then Barrios hit what we all thought was the game winner in the 87th.  This was his chip from an insane angle along the end line that somehow went in.  Unfortunately Blanco came right back down the field and tied it four minutes later, absolutely stealing a point from the Rapids.  As you would expect with a man advantage for a full half Colorado dominated every statistical category, except both teams had an Expected Goals of 1.9, and it finished 2-2.  This was that period of the season where we were taking a ton of low percentage shots to end up with a decent xGoals.

In the second match in Colorado things went much more in our favor.  This was a weekend game between Wednesday games where we drew Seattle and our one late loss in our trip to New England.  One significant change, other than location, was that Blanco was injured for this match.  The Rapids had 3 lineup changes from the game in Portland, with Rubio starting up front and Badji starting for Shinyashiki.  Rosenberry was injured so Acosta started in his place.  Same 5-4-1/5-2-3 formation.  The stats showed this game as fairly even the Timbers never felt like they were in the match. All but one shot they put on net had less than a 5% Expected goals (and the one above 5% was 5.52%).  They never really threatened.

On the Rapids side this was one of Galvan's best games, who set up both Rapids goals.  Badji was really getting rolling into the hot streak he finished the season on, and Rubio got on the scoreboard as well.  The Expected Goals were much more in our favor, 1.9 to 0.3 and sure enough, we won by 2.  With the win Colorado officially clinched a playoff spot and was 1 point away from clinching a home playoff match.

What we see from these two games is that Blanco is the key to the Timbers attack.  He scored twice in their playoff win over Minnesota on Sunday.  The good news is that at 33 years old he played 88 minutes on Sunday and is now coming to altitude 4 days later.  But we're going to have to lock him down to succeed on Thursday.  On the attack we obviously match up well, scoring 2 goals in both matches.  Keep doing what we're doing on that end and concentrate on keeping Portland off the board.

Upcoming Opponents Decided

This weekend our upcoming opponent for Thursday's playoff match and for the Concacaf Champions League in February were partially decided.

Frist, the big one, we'll play Portland on Thursday in the conference semifinals.  So far this season we've beaten them 2-0 at home and drawn them 2-2 in Portland.  Later this week we'll go into more detail about those two matches and what to expect on Thursday.

Concacaf also announced the details of the Concacaf Champions League.  The draw will take place on December 15th but we know 15 of the 16 teams in the competition already.  The teams are ranked by how the teams in those slots have done in past editions of the CCL, not how the qualified teams have done in past editions.  For example, the Supporters Shield winner always gets the USA2 slot, and based on how past Shield winners have done the Revs are ranked 5th of the 16th teams.  The other conference winner always gets the USA3 slot, and based how they've done over the years the Rapids have the best ranking of American teams in 4th.  Given that the rankings for 2022 are already known as well as 15 of the 16 teams in the slots:

Cruz Azul - Mexico

Leon - Mexico

UNAM (Pumas) - Mexico

Colorado Rapids - USA

New England Revolution - USA

Montreal - Canada

MLS Cup winner* - USA

Seattle Sounders - USA

***********

Santos Laguna - Mexico

Santos de Guapiles - Costa Rica

Motagua - Honduras

Saprissa - Costa Rica

Cavaly - Haiti/Concacaf League

Guastatoya - Guatemala/Concacaf League

Comunicaciones - Guatemala/Concacaf League

Forge FC - Canada/Concacaf League

The last 4 spots are awarded to the semi-finalists of the Concacaf league, played among qualifiers from the smaller leagues in the region.  The competition is in the semi-final stage so we know the 4 teams who will qualify but the order of the two Guatemalan teams may change based on who wins the semi-final between them.

* - If the MLS Cup winner is one of New England, Colorado, or Seattle, the highest team in the Shield standings who hasn't yet qualified for the CCL will get the spot.  This year that would be Sporting KC.

Once the 16 teams are ranked they're split into the top 8 and the bottom 8, and one from each side of the split are drawn against each other.  So you can see that which of the spots the Guatemalan team fills or if one of the MLS teams moves into the MLS Cup spot doesn't really matter as they stay in the same pot.

The rules of the draw are that teams from the same federation can't be drawn against each other (there's an exception to that but it won't apply this year).  So Montreal can't draw Forge FC and Santos Laguna can't draw Cruz Azul, Leon, or Pumas (which means they will draw a MLS team).

So the possible Rapids opponents in the first round are any of the bottom 8 teams in that list up there.  The first round will take place as a home and home series on Feb. 15th-17th and Feb. 22nd-24th.  As the higher ranked team the Rapids will host the second leg on Feb. 22nd-24th.

As part of the draw on Dec. 15th the teams will be placed into a traditional 16 team bracket, like the Sweet Sixteen, and they'll know what their path to the final is.  In the quarter-finals the winners of series 1, 3, 5, and 7 in that bracket will host the second legs of the home-and-home series (generally considered the better option).  Those will be played March 8-10th and March 15th-17th.  For the semis and final the host of the second leg will be determined by the records of the teams involved in the earlier rounds, with the team with the better record getting the second leg.  The semis will be played April 5th-7th and April 12th-14th, and the finals will be April 26th-28th and May 3rd-5th.

Rapids End Season With First Home Loss Of The Year

Well, that's it.  Seattle outplayed us in both legs and they move on to MLS Cup after a 1-0 win yesterday.  There really isn't much to say about this one.  Colorado set a regular and post-season MLS record by having 16 shots with none of them on target.  Much like we've seen all season, in a game they came in trailing by a goal they didn't get one shot on target.  That's the story of the game.  13 shots on target and 2 goals in 4 playoff games won't get you to MLS Cup.  The lack of a team offensive strategy finally caught up to us.

General Impressions:

• To dissect the goal it was a team failure from Watts and Sjoberg.  Watts headed a horrible ball right into the middle of the field 30 yards out.  With Watts forward playing the ball Sjoberg didn't pick up Morris running into the empty space.  MacMath didn't make a great play on the shot (honestly, Howard probably saves it) and that was that.  But the goal wasn't the reason we lost.
• Hairston should have started over Le Toux in both games.  Sebastian didn't contribute anything beyond running up and down the field.
• Gashi and Doyle each got a goal in the playoffs but one was a lucky deflection and one was a shot you could hit again 10 times and you'd miss all 10 times.  We needed more out of our big money players.
• The officiating wasn't the reason we lost but it was incredibly inconsistent over the two legs.  Part of it is because there were different refereeing teams so what was seen as a PK in Leg 1 was much lighter than what wasn't a PK in Leg 2 but even in the games the refs were inconsistent.
• In the end the team that played the best in the Western playoffs is the team going to MLS Cup.  You can't really complain about that.
• I'll be backing Toronto now.  This is not an anti-Sounders move as some of my friends/family may believe (you know who you are) but its a move to back ex-Rapids Clint Irwin and Drew Moor.  I'd love to see Moor get another ring.  If the final ends up being Seattle-Montreal I'm not sure who I'll support.

Man of the Match: This was going to be Jermaine Jones for the effort he put in.  But an hour after the match he tweeted (and then deleted) the following:

Now it's time to enjoy family and in a couple weeks getting back to work!  We will see where!!  FREE AGENT BABY

Which is a tactless tweet and an insult to the fans who supported him all season.  We knew that JJ was essentially a mercenary for hire this year but show a little class.  If he had tweeted Wednesday that he's going to be getting back to work and looking for opportunities nobody would have complained but "FREE AGENT BABY" an hour after playoff elimination?  Lets just say he didn't win over many fans to support re-signing him yesterday.

Now that the season is done we'll be getting into Player of the Year awards, roster analysis, expansion draft discussion, and the Pablo question in the next few days.  Oh, and of course, the Pac-12 Championship on Friday night.  Bow Down to Washington!

For All The Marbles

That's the cliche this week at least

At home facing a one goal deficit.  Didn't we just do this?  Things are a little different this time around as the Rapids do have a road goal in their back pocked to a repeat of the LA home game means skipping extra time and going straight to MLS Cup.  Of course I think Seattle is going to much harder to stop on offense than LA's geriatric stars.  Anything less than a win and Seattle goes to their first MLS Cup.  A 1-0 sends us through, a 2-1 win sends us to extra time.  Any other one goal win by the Rapids isn't enough as Seattle would go through on away goals.  Any multi-goal win by Colorado though wins the series without worrying about away goals.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 2 (2:18 to be exact) and the tailgate will start early at 10:30.  Those of you unable to make it (like some of my Sounder fan family members back in Seattle...) can watch the game on ESPN.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Tim Howard (season ending abductor break) M Dillon Serna (season ending ACL tear)

SUSPENDED; M Sam Cronin (yellow card accumulation)

Dempsey is out and two other players are questionable for Seattle.  Yellow card accumulations don't carry into MLS Cup or next season, so the only suspensions we would have to worry about are from a red card in this match.  Missing Cronin is going to hurt but I think some in the media are making more of it than it really is.  Azira is fresh and played in that spot the majority of the season.  Other than that I expect everyone to be available to start, we have to leave it all on the field.

Starting XI Prediction:

I doubt we'll see a change in the back, despite how bad some people played in Leg 1.  Now is just too late to mix things up by bringing Williams in or something.  The middle of the field is the question mark.  We could see the same lineup as Tuesday except Azira inserted for Cronin but I think we'll see a little more of a change.  Badji was pretty much useless and I think Pablo, knowing he needs at least 1 goal (and probably more) will want to give Jones more freedom to attack.  Jones gets pushed forward, Powers and Azira fill the spots behind him, and Badji goes to the bench with Doyle becoming the lone forward.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Doyle.  I don't know why but I'm not feeling confident going into this one.  Seattle is clearly not the same team as they were the first half of the season and they're playing better than LA right now.  While we controlled the second leg against LA we still only won 1-0.  I feel like we'll need more than 1 goal in this one and I don't see us finding it.

Rapids Lucky To Lose 2-1

We played worse than we did in LA and got a better result.  That's the way the ball bounces sometimes.  A poor game by many and a woeful game by a few really gave Seattle opportunities but luckily they weren't able to convert many.  We come back to Denver with a 1 goal deficit and an away goal which is a decent result all things considered.  Sunday we need just a 1-0 win to clinch a spot in MLS Cup.  That's been the result in 8 of our 18 home games this year.  In fact 9 of our home results this year would be enough to win the series and 3 others would force extra time.

General Impressions:

• One popular topic last night was the officiating.  While Penso was inconsistent he got almost all the major decisions correct.  first Seattle goal was onside.  PK wasn't strong contact but it was a legit call.  The yellow on Cronin was a good one.  The only thing he really missed was not carding Alonso for persistent infringement as he did Doyle.  That keeps Alonso eligible for Leg 2 when he shouldn't have been.
• A little luck on the shot that led to Doyle's goal but some nice ball work to get Doyle into that position.  A great start to the game.
• Unfortunately we didn't hold it long.  Jones got beaten to a ball and didn't recover quickly.  Le Toux mad ea good effort to close down Roldan but he still got a strong shot off that rebounded off the post right ot Morris who leveled the score.
• During that play Miller managed to hold Morris on side, then let him continue his run without marking him, then held his are up looking for an incorrect offside call.  Basically everything a defender is NOT supposed to do.
• That was just about Le Toux's only positive contribution to the game.  While he ran all night it was largely ineffective.  His game was caped off by a great 2 on 0 where he never picked his head up to see a wide open Hairston for an easy tap in, instead shooting it right at the keeper.
• Badji was also a waste.  This was more typical "run with no purpose" Badji than anything particularly bad though.
• Lodeiro worked Burch all night.  First he baited him into a yellow card t hat with the wrong ref could have been red (and Lodeiro pulled off a nice flop to get it).  Then he suckered him into a pointless tackle in the box for the PK.  Lodeiro also sold that one but there was contact, it was the right call.
• Cronin's yellow hurts.  We'll need Azira to step up big while replacing him.
• Gashi clearly wasn't 100%.  Hopefully he was just taking it easy on the wet turf and we'll see the usual him on Sunday.
• Other than the goal Doyle was fairly quiet.
• One game for all the marbles.  Do what we've done all season and a trip to MLS Cup is ours.  You don't like being in a must-win situation but this is about the best version of that scenario we could get.

Man of the Match: Zac MacMath.  He might have been able to do better on the first Seattle goal but he came up huge after that.  Nothing he could do on the PK.  He should have settled some fears about losing Howard.

One Last Road Trip

One way or the other, this is the last road game

Ok, after two weeks off for international play (and international injuries) time to gt back to the MLS playoffs.  Down to the final 4.  Over in the east it will be the battle of Canada while here in the West its my current town vs, my home town.  Historically Seattle has been a very bad host for us but the last couple of time up to the Emerald City we've turned the tables on them.  Remember that this is once again the first of two legs and the away goals tiebreaker is in effect.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Tim Howard (season ending abductor break) M Dillon Serna (season ending ACL tear)

QUESTIONABLE: M Shkelzen Gashi (ankle)

ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: D Jared Watts; M Sam Cronin; M Shelkzen Gashi; M Jermaine Jones, F Dominique Badji

Dempsey is out and 5 players, including Morris, are Questionable for Seattle.  There's also been talk during the break that Marco Pappa picked up a bit of a knock and may or may not be available.  Otherwise no real surprise from the injury list but we'll need guys like Cronin and Jones (and Gashi if he plays) to be careful not to pick up a second yellow and be suspended for the home leg on Sunday.

Starting XI Prediction:

I'm expecting Burling to start over watts in the back for two reasons.  First, with the loss of Howard adding some more veteran leadership in the defense will be helpful.  Secondly this is the center back pairing that MacMath was comfortable and successful with in the first half of the season.

I expect the Cronin-Azira pairing (instead of Powers) due to needing to shut down Lodeiro.  Seattle has been a different team (one we haven't faced) since his arrival and to keep the game (and series) close we'll need to take him out of the game as much as possible.  Cronin-Azira are better suited for that IMO.

Up front I'm kind of guessing.  Pablo said all hands on deck so I expect Jones to start but I'm not sure who will be flanking him.  It could be Hairston.  It could be Badji up front with Doyle coming off the bench..  Its a safe bet Gashi won't start, we might see him for the last 15 minutes or so off the bench but that's all I would expect.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Similar to Leg 1 in LA I expect Colorado to be very conservative and try to get back home with a scoreless draw.  Also similar to LA, I don't expect them to be successful.  I like our chances at home as long as we keep it to at most a 1 goal loss so 1-0 wouldn't be horrible.  2-1 with the away goal would be better though.

Rapids' Stars Outshine Galaxy

Howard.  Gashi.  Jones.  When we needed our big names to step up they asked "how high?".  Colorado outplayed LA over 120 minutes and then got the job done in PKs.  If you remember my prediction:

1-0 win, goal by Jones.  We then go into extra time and PKs and on the back of Howard we advance to the conference finals. 

Ok, the (jaw-dropping) goal was actually by Gashi but otherwise I nailed it.  Bring on the Sounders!

General Impressions:

• Nice job by the FO to have Conor Casey there to be recognized on his retirement.  I assume he'll be back next season when we put his name in the Gallery of Honor.
• It was interesting to see LA accept Colorado being the aggressor in this one.  Certainly not what I expected.
• Jermaine Jones is a beast.  He didn't look like somebody starting his first game in 4 months.  He was in midseason form.
• Part of that was probably because Jurgen Klinsmann was in the house specifically to evaluate JJ for the upcoming World Cup Qualifiers.  He apparently liked what he saw as he included Jones on the roster for this weekend's games.
• He also announced after the game that Tim Howard has reclaimed the #1 spot for the Nats.
• Also leaving for the international weekend are Doyle (Ireland) and Azira (Uganda).  Gashi was also called up but with his injury he won't travel (I assume).
• Gashi's goal goes right into the all-time tier just below 'Celo's bike.  The swerve that ball had on it was amazing.
• As the game went on the Galaxy were playing more and more for PKs it seems.  Taking Gordon, Donovan, and Magee out for Keane, Gerrard, and Larentowicz was very defensive and made it less likely they would score.
• Both sides were somewhat lucky not to end with 10 men.  Van Damme could have seen red on that studs into the back of Badji and Cronin could have been ejected for that studs up tackle.
• The first half of extra time was all Colorado.  LA was doing everything it could just to keep the ball out.  The second half was more even but at that point I think both teams were just trying to get to PKs.
• Doyle got away with an iffy PK, but Le Toux and Pappa buried theirs.
• You certainly saw a Tim Howard effect on :LA's kicks.  dos Santos knew he had to be perfect and hit the upper corner, but missed badly.  Then Tim took over.
• Including the 4 yesterday Howard has faced 11 PKs this year and only 5 were scored.  IIRC the other 6 were 4 saves and 2 misses.
• Great intensity from the crowd yesterday.  The only home game at DSG that came close was the 2010 Eastern Conference Final.
• REally the only negatives were Gashi;s injury (initial reports are not serious) and the #10 position.  Both Doyle and Powers were somewhat invisible.
• Next up, Seattle.  We play their on Tuesday Nov. 22nd at 8pm, on Fox Sports 1.  We'll play at home on Sun. Nov. 27th at 2pm on ESPN.  That's the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend BTW.

Man of the Match: Tim Howard.  Really there's about 5 players this could go to (Gashi, Jones,, Howard, Cronin, Le Toux) but when you stop 2 PKs and scare another one wide in the tiebreaker, you're the MOTM.

Win Or Stay Home For The Rapids

Theirs not to reason why, theirs but to do or die

Apologies to Lord Tennyson for the paraphrase.  Sunday the Rapids either figure out how to score or the season ends.  Going in down 1-0 from the first leg Colorado must win, and if they allow LA to score they have to win by 2.  A 1-0 win will take the game to extra time and if necessary, penalty kicks.  Kickoff for our first home playoff match in 5 years is noon, which means an early tailgate kickoff at 9am.  The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Dillon Serna (season ending ACL tear)

ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: D Jared Watts; M Jermaine Jones, F Dominique Badji

MLS actually updated the injury report this week.  Looks like Serna is the only one not available for the Rapids.  LA is missing Zardes still and Gerrard is questionable.

Starting XI Prediction:

I think this will be the lineup regardless of the strategy Pablo goes with.  There's really two ways I can see playing this game.  The first is to go out, push to find the goal that will tie the series early, and then try to get a winner while hopefully not opening up too much and giving up an away goal.  The second, and the one I expect the Rapids to use, is to play conservatively, prevent an away goal at all costs, make LA work hard, and wait for the altitude to kick in during the second half.  This is how we've played most of our home games this season and LA, being an older team, would seem to be even more susceptible to it.  Ones LA is on fumes then we push for the tying goal with the confidence that if we only get 1-0 and extra 30 minutes probably favors us and certainly we'd be the favorite in PKs with Tim Howard in the net.

That's what I expect Doyle to start over Badji as introducing Badji's speed when LA is tiring might be the way to crack them open.  The ke to this strategy though is Jones being able to go 90 or 120.  If he's not up to that we may see a lineup like last week where Powers starts and is replaced by Jones at half.

The downside to this strategy is that there isn't much room for error.  If the Rapids give up a goal suddenly we're three behind.  That will force Colorado to open up and attack the game and we may be looking at a 3-2 scoreline.  If we're successful at keeping LA at bay we're still limiting ourselves to really attacking in a limited time and that could result in a 0-0 draw.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Jones.  We then go into extra time and PKs and on the back of Howard we advance to the conference finals.  Yeah, this is a bit of an optimistic viewpoint but I do think we can blank LA at home.  We've had 10 clean sheets at home this season, including one against LA.  Pablo will focus on that and JJ will pull one out of a hat to get us to extra time.  LA will push hard to win it in extra time but we'll barely get through to PKs.

Rapids Play For 0-0 Draw But Lose

Colorado went to LA looking for a scoreless draw.  When that didn't happen they had no Plan B.  Luckily they kept it to a 1-0 loss, which isn't the end of the world, but we're going to have to see a completely different team on Sunday if we're going to advance.

General Impressions:

• Putting only 3 real attacking players in the starting XI (Gashi, Badji, and Doyle) was a real sign that this was all about defense.
• Combined the starting lineup had 5 total shots, none on goal.  Our subs (Jones and Badji) had 3 shots between the two of them including our only shot on target (Jones' long shot that had to be palmed away).
• For a large part the defensive tactic worked.  Howard had to come up big a few times but for the majority of play the Galaxy attack was stymied.
• But it only takes 1 mistake, and LA got it in the 55th minute.  A long series around the LA box where Colorado couldn't clear ended in a dos Santos shot that was going in but would have likely been saved by Howard.  Sjoberg tried to head it over the net and instead redirected it to the opposite corner.  No official own goal but Sjoberg took away any chance of a save.
• After that it was desperate attack with no result.
• Gashi was invisible in this match.  Not nearly good enough from a DP.
• We've now gone 3 games with only 1 goal.  That ties our worst offensive run of the season.  We'll need to change that quickly for the next game.
• One thing we must absolutely do on Sunday is shut LA out for at least the first 90 minutes.  With the away goals rule, a LA goal would force us to score 3 to win the series and that's not something I think we can do.  (If and when we get into the extra 30 minutes then the away goals rule is dropped.)
• Realistically our best option is to take a 1-0 lead into the extra time.  The longer the game goes at altitude the more tired an old LA team will get.  Plus if we get to PKs we have Tim Howard.
• Maybe a 2-0 win is possible in 90 minutes.  I don't think 3-1 (or more) is.

Man of the Match: Jared Watts.  Yeah, I'm surprised too.  Other than passing when he should have shot in the first half though he did everything right.  He had some huge clearances in that first half.

Colorado-LA at Noon next Sunday

Its just been announced that the Rapids home leg against LA next Sunday will be a noon local kickoff.  This is a surprise because the early schedule showed an 8pm MT slot for TV which was almost certain to be the Rapids since the other hosts were Dallas and NY.  Looks like MLS got the networks to slide things around so Dallas could kickoff at 8pm CT.

Once again, we host LA at noon next Sunday, 11/6.

Rapids Face Galaxy In Western Semis Leg 1

Some love for a former Washington Huskies defensive coordinator

Its been 3 years since we've seen the playoffs and 5 since we've seen the conference semis but we're back!  Just to remind everyone the conference semis and finals are two legged affairs leading to the one game MLS Cup on Dec. 10th, hosted at the Dick if we make it.  The away goals ruels is in effect as a tiebreaker as well.  Coverage of Leg 1 starts on ESPN tomorrow at 3 with kickoff scheduled for 3:23.  Centennial 38 is having a big watch party at the Irish Rover and is picking up the first $1000 in drinks.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Dillon Serna (season ending ACL tear)

MLS has once again shown the pointlessness of the injury report by not updating it since the day before the last week of the regular season.  The Rapids game guide list Serna, Zardes, and Gerrard as "injured" but with no detail of if that means Out, Probable, or something in-between.  What I've been seeing is that Gerrard might be available but Zardes likely won't be.  Serna, obviously, will not be.

Starting XI Prediction:

I'm confident in about half this lineup.  Howard, Sjoberg, Burch, Cronin, and Gashi will start barring some unannounced injury.  The other half is a best guess.  I don't know how healthy Burling, Hairston, and Jones really are.  I think the first two are probably good enough to go and I expect Jones will come off the bench.  Because of that I think we see Doyle in the withdrawn striker/creative mid position he played inthe last couple of games with Badji in front of him.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Badji.  There's a lot of doom and gloom from some Rapids fans after seeing LA rip apart FSL on Wednesday but I think we're over-looking what the Rapids have done this season (and how bad FSL is).  The Rapids have only been beaten 6 times, equal to LA, and only by multiple goals twice (@NE and @NYCFC).  While some in the media are treating Colorado as the underdogs LA never beat us this season.  I don't think that changes tomorrow.  It will be a tough game but they're an older team and are on their 3rd game in a week+1.5 hours.  Even if we do lose if we can keep it to a 1 goal loss and score an away goal we'll still be OK.  I don't see the Rapids getting blown off the pitch tomorrow.

Affiliations, Transfer Rumors, and Playoff Opponent

An eclectic list of news and rumors today:

The Rapids renewed their affiliation with the USL Charlotte Independence for another season today.  This is a little bit of a surprise as it seemed like Colorado was leaning towards a relationship with the Switchbacks.  Maybe they still have different viewpoints on how the relationship might work or maybe the Rapids are just happy staying with Charlotte given Hinchey's relationship with the Independence owners.

Two interesting transfer rumors surfaced from MLS Transfers today.  They're track record is a little hit or miss so I wouldn't put much weight into these:

Axel Sjoberg:

I'm hearing Axel Sjoberg has been gaining interest from Djurgardens (his youth club) and Ostersunds FK.

I'm not sure this would be a great move for a player like Sjoberg except for him it would be going home.  I don't think a mid-tier top league team (Djurgardens) or a recently promoted team (Ostersunds) in Sweden would be a step up but you can't downplay the appeal of playing in your home country,

Dillon Powers:

Source tells me Dillon Powers has interest from Blackburn. May trial in the offseason.

As a Blackburn fan I'm not sure how I feel about this one. :D  If Jones re-signs for the Rapids or hey plan to bring in another Jones-type player its certainly time for Powers to leave.  As we've seen he doesn't really have a starting spot with Jones or that type of player here.  He was probably going to move to a Championship side last season until Reading made a managerial change.  Its the right level for him and would probably be a good move for everyone involved on this side of the pond.

Now I don't see Powers saving Blackburn from relegation so this better not be the only big move they're considering in the winter transfer window. ;)

Finally, LA beat FSL tonight 3-1 so we're headed to the StubHub Center for our first playoff game on Sunday.  Time is still to be announced.  During the season we played 0-0 and 1-1 draws in LA while beating them here 1-0.  Those results would get us through to the conference finals if we repeat them.  Its a little concerning how LA has turned on its offense tonight but that could jusst be because FSL has been a bad team for two months.

Playoff Analysis With A Bit Of Player News

Before we get into my planned analysis of possible playoff opponents here's a bit of player news from today.  Reports are linking the Rapids with Irish striker Daryl Horgan.  He's 24 years old and has been a pro in the League of Ireland since 2010.  Seems like the Irish pipeline between the Emerald Isle and the Mile High City is getting stronger.

Now, onto the playoff analysis.  I figured going into the weekend we should take a look at who we want to play and who we might avoid.  To do that I looked at all our games against the 6 other possible Western opponents, both home and away (since both Western Conference playoff rounds we could be in are 2-legged affairs).

As things stand right now, barring an upset either this weekend (giving us the Shield) or in the wild-card round (knocking off LA) we will play the Galaxy in the Western semifinal round.  This year we beat LA 1-0 at home and tied them 0-0 and 1-1 on the road.  That would be good enough to win the playoff series.

If its not LA then it could be any of the other 4 teams.  FSL, Seattle, KC, and Portland can all finish anywhere between 4th and 7th (out of the playoffs).  Our records this season:

FSL: 1-0 win at home, 0-1 and 2-1 losses on the road.  Those results would be good enough to get us through on the away goals tiebreaker, or at least get us into an overtime at home.

Seattle: 3-1 win at home, 1-0 win on the road.  A great set of results

KC: 1-0 wins at home, 2-1 win on the road.  Due to the away goals rule, this would be our best set of results

Portland: 0-0 draw and 1-0 win at home, 1-0 loss on the road.  This would be the only set of results that could eliminate us, or at best force us into an overtime.

So we really want to face Seattle or KC, LA would be ok, FSL and Portland we'd like to avoid.

Assuming we get past the semifinal round, the Western final would most likely be against Dallas.  Results this weekend would determine which order the home and away game would go in.  Overall this year we had a 1-1 draw at home and a 1-0 win on the road, which would get us through to MLS Cup.  Not that I'm confident in a scenario when we're playing Dallas but history does favor us. :D

Should we make it as far as MLS Cup we could face any of 6 teams from the East.  There's a slight chance (if RBNY wins and we lose this weekend) that we could go to Red Bull Arena for the game, otherwise we'd play it at home.  We only played half the Eastern playoff teams at home this year, including Red Bull.  Our results:

RBNY: 2-1 win

Toronto: 1-0 win

Philly: 1-1 draw

The other 3 we played on the road, but they would come here in the case of MLS Cup:

NYCFC: 5-1 loss

Montreal: 2-2 draw

DC: 1-1 draw

If you assume that the home advantage would help us and going on the road to RBNY would hurt us then we want to avoid going to New York and we want to avoid Philly and NYCFC coming here.  We should feel pretty good about RBNY and Toronto coming here and we should like our chances getting the home advantage against Montreal and DC.

So bottom line, we'd like to see FSL, Portland, and NYCFC eliminated quickly (of course we want that every year with FSL) to avoid our biggest challenges based on our regular season results.

Playoff Clinching Scenarios

After tonight's results our playoff clinching scenarios this weekend become easy.

The Rapids clinch a playoff spot with a win OR a draw

That's it, a loss means we can't clinch this weekend.  The fastest way to clinch without winning is two losses KC or Seattle (not two losses between them, two losses by one of them).