Rapids Win Sloppy Delayed Match

Last week the Rapids shipped 7 goals, but the good news is that they scored 9.  For the first time in their history they put up back-to-back 4+ goals games to pick up 6 points.  A 4-3 match isn't ideal, but as long as you score more than the other team you take the 3 points.  Now the team gets a week off at home since none of them were selected for the All-Star Game on Wednesday before facing Columbus next Saturday.

Random Musings:

• In the last 13 minutes (plus stoppage) on Tuesday and the first 15 minutes on Saturday the Rapids scored goals.  As best I can tell, 28 minutes is the fastest Colorado has ever scored 6 goals in.
• Game didn't start on a good note with the defense giving up a goal inside 5 minutes.  Vallecilla played a ball he could have easily cleared out for an unnecessary corner, then lost his man on the ensuing dead-ball.  Otherwise the defense was pretty tight on the free kick but it only takes one mistake.
• Notably Vallecilla was starting in Abubakar's place.  It certainly appears that Lalas was benched after his atrocious play on Tuesday.  Its good to show the team that poor play has consequences, but long-term Abubakar and Wilson have to be the starters.  Vallecilla just isn't ready yet.
• Colorado bounced right back with three quick goals.  Two of them were set up by throwi-ins by Rosenberry.  Dropping a ball right into the middle of the box for an unmarked Rubio, and creating a fast break from midfield for Barrios.  That's a nice little weapon we haven't seen enough.
• With his 11th goal Rubio is now barely ahead of the pace of Conor Casey's team record 16 goals in 2009.  He's also on pace to shatter the team record of goals + assists, which is 21 held by both John Spencer and Mark Chung.  Rubio is on pace for 25.  That's without two unofficial assists this weekend where his long shots were spilled by the keeper right into the path of Zardes to finish them.
• Colorado let their opposition back into the game right before half, again.  To be fair, this was a nicely taken goal with Esteves being unfortunately nutmegged and then Wilson's man playing a back-heel pass to himself and then taking a sliding shot just over Danny's leg and just past Yarbrough's outstretched hand.  A tip of the cap for a nice play, but Esteves and Wilson could have done a bit better as well.
• Then the lightning hit and we sat around for 90 minutes before the second half kicked off.
• Kudos to the Rapids for continuing to press and getting Zardes' hat-trick.  If it weren't for some big saves from Minnesota's keeper it could have been a couple more.
• They couldn't make it easy though, giving up another goal on a set piece.  Wilson lost his man on the corner, with a bit of nice work from Kallman.  In order to lose Wilson he ran Danny into the scrum in the middle of the box and used it as a pick to get free, and the ball was placed it the right spot for him to finish after that.  Smart play by the attacker, but Wilson needs to not get sucked in like that.
• Yarbrough came up huge after that, blocking a tying goal from a one on one with a kick save.
• Barrios was on fire Saturday night.  When he's on, he's the best winger we have.  But, much like the rest of the team, his biggest negative this year is his inconsistency.
• Jack Price was back, unexpectedly!  It made total sense to pull him after the weather delay, there's no need to risk injury after sitting that long.
• That gave us our first look at Felipe Gutierrez.  He didn't do anything to really stand out, good or bad, but good to see him getting minutes already.
• Zardes, Rubio, and Fraser all made the MLS team of the week this week.
• The Bodmer Line is now at 1.27 pts/game, which is below the season average of 1.29.  Somehow we've climbed back into the race.  We probably needs 1.64 pts/game to feel really confident though.
• One last thing, happy birthday to Rapids legend Marcelo Balboa!

Man of the Match: Gyasi Zardes.  I mean, the league named him the Player of the Week.  He scored a hat-trick.  Its the easiest choice possible.

Duck Hunt

Yeah, I stole that title idea from the Rapids Twitter post.  What can I say, it was good!  Colorado is back home tomorrow night facing the Loons from Minnesota.  United comes into this game very week, with 3 significant players on suspension for yellow cared accumulation and another handful out with injury.  The Rapids are hoping to ride their high off the crazy comeback on Tuesday night.  New signing Felipe Gutierrez will be available for this one, though I don't expect him to start.  kickoff is at the normal 7pm for home games, and we have 11 games left on the Altitude blackout.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz

QUESTIONABLE: M Jack Price

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lucas Esteves, M Bryan Acosta

I've seen an unconfirmed report that Price is still a week or two out, so I'm not expecting to see him tomorrow night.  Otherwise everyone is available.

Even though Lalas had a horrible night on Tuesday I expect him to start.  I really, I mean really, hope that Fraser learned his lesson about the 5 man backline and goes back to this 4-1-4-1 formation.  With next week off since nobody made the All-Star roster and back-to-back home games so there's no travel, I don't think Fraser is going to be too worried about rotating the lineup from Tuesday night.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Zardes.  Minnesota is weakened and on the road, though more rested than us.  We're coming off a high and I think we ride it to 3 points.  A draw wouldn't shock me though.

Another Transfer Window Ends With A Whimper

The transfer window closed last night.  Its not unusual for the paperwork to get submitted at the last minute and the announcement to come the next day but the move that sources were reporting as "done" yesterday seems to have fallen through late last night based on the latest rumors.  I'll state up front, if the Rapids pull a rabbit out of a hat and announce multiple moves later today I'll admit I was off base with this post and take my lumps.  But with a game on Saturday and a game preview to write tonight it was either now or sometime next week that I can cover this.

That said, let's go back to Padraig Smith's comments about this window a month ago when we traded MAK to Toronto.  At that point we had already brought Sam Nicholson back and we obviously acquired Ralph Priso in the trade with TFC.

This is not the last deal we're going to make in this window. This is the first of what I certainly believe is going to be a very active window for us, and I think really what has to be done is it has to be judged in terms of the total package of what the overall situation looks like, what the roster looks like when we're finished making those moves

Well, we can now judge what the roster looks like now that we're finished. In that active window since the comment we made one move announced yesterday.  We've acquired Chilean midfielder Felipe Gutiérrez on a short-term loan from C.D. Universidad Católica in Chile.  Gutiérrez will turn 32 on the final day of the regular season and prior to his return to Chile was a Designated Player for Sporting KC.  The book on him while in MLS was that he was a highly talented player, but quite injury-prone.  He was with KC for three seasons, but missed all of the COVID-shortened 2020 season due to injury.  In the two prior seasons he made 49 starts, putting up 19 goals and 5 assists.

Its good to bring in somebody who's familiar with the league and has had success, but he is almost 3 years older on the back-side of 30 since he played here.  He's also only on a short-term loan, and nothing has been mentioned about having an option to buy him at the end of the season.  To me, this doesn't feel like a move for the long-term and more to plug the hole in midfield caused by the injuries to Galvan, Larraz, and Price.

I don't think a short-term loan as the only move counts as "very active".  Nobody in their right mind would.  Clearly, once again, what the Rapids FO sells and what they actually deliver, don't add up.  This was a very disheartening window after some success in prior years.

Lets move on to what we were targeting in this window.  Smith said:

I think when I look at the chances we're creating, I still think we can look at our overall attacking area and say, ‘Okay do we need to bring somebody else in that's going to give us another cutting edge in the attacking third?’ That is something that we're looking at,

I think long-term we're certainly going to look to bring in another center back to challenge, and we are also now are looking at bringing in an 8 to reinforce the midfield. So from my perspective, it's really about looking at the overall group and what we've got for this year – but also what we're planning for in next year as well.

So that's 3 positions.  A cutting edge in the attack, a midfielder in an 8 role, and a center back.  And remember, this was stated after we acquired Nicholson and Priso.  So if we consider Gutiérrez the "cutting edge" that means we're still looking for the 8 and CB.  The failure to sign them wasn't because we couldn't afford it, again, according to Smith:

“We can buy players down, we've got a lot of flexibility,” Smith said about their DP situation. “We've built up a war chest over the past little while in terms of GAM as well

So its safe to say this window hasn't lived up to expectation.  The only reason for that is because the Front Office couldn't get whatever deals they had planned over the line.  I'm expecting we will hear in the coming days that they were close on a number of targets and just couldn't get the deal done, but that's a line that has been so oft-repeated that it has reached the status of cliché.  A "perennial playoff team who regularly competes for trophies", as stated in the Rapids Way, can't throw away a transfer window while they're struggling at the bottom of the table.  Not if they want the fanbase to think they really believe they can achieve their stated goals.

This is sadly, the second window in  a row where we haven't done enough.  While we've replaced the number of minutes lost (+/- 5%) from last year to now, we haven't replaced the production.  Player that have been added since the end of 2021 have 3 goals and 5 assists (all Zardes and Acosta).  Players who have left had 19 goals and 16 assists last season.  Even if you add in what Trusty, Shinyashiki, MAK, and Mezquida did in 2022 before leaving (4 goals, 1 assist, from Shinyashiki and MAK) that's only 21% of the goals and 38% of the assists despite being 65% of the way through the season.  If we had a like for like production replacement we'd have 6 more goals and a top-10 offense.  Just under half our games would have had a different outcome if we had scored one more goal.  Turning two losses into a draw and a draw into a win with 3 goals would have us right on the playoff line.

Obviously we couldn't plan for the injury bug we've had this year, especially in midfield with Galvan, Larraz, and Price missing significant number of games (or all of them).  But our failure to replace our depth over the last two windows is why we're struggling to deal with those injuries and why we're looking up at most of the league.  Coming up empty this window not only likely dooms this season, but it leaves fans questioning if we can be ready for 2023.

What Was That?

I don't know how you explain that game last night.  No team up 2 goals in the first 10 minutes and up 2 goals with 20 minutes to play should come close to losing the game, much less need a PK in stoppage time and barely miss a tying goal due to offside.  Consider that the Rapids hadn't won on the road this season, and they had only scored 3 goals once, in the regular season home opener.  The last time they scored 3 on the road was in Minnesota late last season (another miracle comeback).  The last time they scored 5 on the road was the epic 5 goal win in Sandy to come back and win the Rocky Mountain Cup.  I'm not going to even try to analyze the complete game, I don't think anyone can, but there are some highlights I want to discuss.

Random Musings:

• The team deserves a ton of credit for not giving up.  I'll admit that after 10 minutes I had figured this game was over, and even after getting back to 2-1 I didn't have much hope.  What little I did evaporated after we gave up a PK to go back down two.
• Abubakar had about the worst 30 minutes I've ever seen out of a Rapids defender.  He gave away the ball on a bad pass, then deflected the resulting shot leaving Yarbrough stranded for the first NY goal, he lost his mark who scored the second NY goal on a free kick, and he misplayed a simple ball to give NY a break and had to commit a penalty to prevent a 3rd NY goal but the PK was finished anyway.  Just a flaming dumpster fire of an appearance.
• Fraser made the obvious move at halftime to pull Lalas and move from 5 in the back to 4.  The Rapids have been playing better with 4 for the last few games, so the decision to go with 5 and then put Warner in front of them was a strange choice by the gaffer, and it backfired.  Hopefully Fraser learns the lesson and sticks with 4 in the back now.
• The referee had a busy night on this one, with two PKs, two goals pulled out of the net due to offside and rescinding a red card through VAR.  In all the cases the final call appeared to be the right one.  While Abubakar's holding started outside the box the action appeared to continue into the box which is a penalty, but Danny Wilson was close enough to cover so DOGSO didn't apply.  Both offsides were accurate, but close.
• This is now the third time this season the Rapids have had a goal disallowed due to an offside player screening the keeper.  All the calls were correct but its odd to see three so close together.  I think its just coincidence but the coaching staff might want to consider if their tactics are leaving us open to this call.
• Seeing 5 goals from 5 different goal-scorers is pretty unusual for this team.  Getting two from defensive players (Rosenberry and Warner) is a huge surprise.  Shots like that is why I don't have a problem with Rosenberry pulling the trigger when he feels it.  I don't want any other defenders doing it, but Keegan has scored enough of those that he should take the shot when he's got it.
• Max had his best game as a Rapids, though admittedly that wasn't a high bar to clear.  He probably should have had Warner's goal but good positioning from the RNBY keeper denied him.
• Barrios changed the game when he came in for an ineffectual Lewis, unlike some of his more recent appearances.  If we could only get some consistency out of our wingers we might have a chance.
• Shout out to Yaya Toure for his first goal!
• In the end, the Rapids got very lucky in this game.  Despite a horrendous defensive performance the Red Bulls only put two shots on target (not counting the PKs) after their 2 goals in the first 10 minutes.  But even at the very end when all we needed was to clear the zone to win the game Vallecilla was ball-watching/marking space instead of his man, and Esteves wasn't much better.  Luckily their aimless defending pulled them upfield enough for the NY attacker to be just barely offside.  That could have easily been 2 points wasted.
• Interesting note about all of the Rapids goals.  Three of them too a deflection on the way in and the other two were deflected by RBNY to the goal-scorer.  Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.
• The official Bodmer Line now stands at 1.42 pts/game, but I don't think that gets it done this year.  More likely we need to be at 1.75 pts/game to make the playoffs.  A tough hill to climb but this win might be the kickstart we need to get there.  We've been at 1.6 over our last 5 games, just 1 point off that pace, so we're close.
• Next up is a weakened Minnesota United side at home.  They are down three important players to yellow card suspensions.  3 points this weekend will be critical.

Man Of The Match: Diego Rubio.  Easy pick.  He had a goal, two assists, and the shot that rebounded from the Red Bull keeper to Toure for the winning goal.  The Warner goal was the only one he didn't have a direct impact on.  We clearly don't win this game without him.  

Live From New Jersey Its Tuesday Night Football!

 

After a three day delay so the Red Bulls could host a friendly with Barcelona the Rapids are back in action in New Jersey tomorrow night.  After the failure in Seattle, and a lack of reinforcements in the rapidly closing window, its hard to see this season turning around at this point, but if its going to it needs to start with 3 points on the East Coast.  The last time we were here, 3 years ago, it was Fraser's first game in charge and he brought home a win, hopefully history repeats itself.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 5:30,, there are 12 games left in the Altitude blackout.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz

QUESTIONABLE: M Jack Price

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lucas Esteves, M Bryan Acosta

I was really hoping to have Captain Jack back for this one, but if he's only questionable my guess is that they don't even have him travel and try to get him ready for Minnesota at home this weekend.

It seems pretty straight forward with the rest we've had.  The only real question is who plays right mid.  Could be Barrios instead of Nicholson.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rubio.  RBNY will have played 3 games (Austin last Sunday, Orlando in the USOC on Wednesday, and Barca in that friendly on Saturday) since Colorado played Seattle last weekend.  That's the only reason I'm willing to predict a point on the road right now.  I certainly can't see us getting the 3 points we need, sadly.