Last Ditch Effort

Well, Colorado is back on the road tomorrow night trying to bounce back from that embarrassing loss on Saturday.  They're in Nashville to face Gary Smith and other members of the 2010 MLS Cup winning team.  Nashville is the last team in the playoffs (based on PPG) so this is a true 6 pointer.  Anything short of a win and whatever last remaining playoff hopes the team might hold will be essentially gone.  Even a draw means we'd likely need 15 points in our last 6 games, and I don't see this team winning 5 of siz with trips to the Galaxy and Austin, and Dallas at home. on the schedule.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6:30 and this is the first of the last half dozen blacked out games.

Injury Report: 

OUT: D Seb Anderson, D Jackson Travis, M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price, F Yaya Toure

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED; D Gustavo Vallecilla

Along with that, the Rapids announced today that defender Michael Edwards has been loaned to the Switchbacks for the rest of the season.  Notably neither Danny Wilson or Keegan Rosenberry (who was Questionable on Saturday) are on the injury report.

Its all hands on deck time.  I think in a less critical game Fraser would give Wilson and Rosenberry some time to heal, but after Wednesday he needs a win here and his best options playing.  The only question mark is who plays in Warner's spot, could be him, Priso, Max, or a 5th defender.

Prediction: 3-1 loss, goal by Rubio.  In the end the answer to that last question won't matter.  There's nothing that's happened in the last 72 hours that says anything but a loss to me in this one.  The season is over and everyone knows it, but nobody wants to admit it yet.  The hobbled backline is going to give up goals to Nashville and we won't respond.

Rapids Tie Second Worst Loss In Team History

On September 5th, 2015 the Rapids hit what we hoped was their low point.  This was the infamous Joe Nasco game where the Rapids went down a man in the first minute in LA, and eventually set an all time worst team loss (and at the time a top 3 all-time league loss) at 6-0.  Sadly, that wasn't the low point even of that era.

Three years later, on August 25th 2018, it got worse.  This time at home the Rapids would go down a man in the 9th minute and a second man in the 45th minute, and again lose 6-0.  This time though, it was to their Rocky Mountain Cup rivals FSL.  That is still the worst loss in team history, because it was at home and who the opponent was.

On Saturday Colorado repeated their 2015 game, losing 6-0 on the road to the Union.  This one might even be a little worse than that, considering that they were down 3-0 in the first 30 minutes while playing 11v11, then got a red card and gave up the last 3 goals in the last 10 minutes of the match.  Against LA all 6 goals were given up down a man (since the red card was in the first minute).  Colorado showed up not ready to play as individuals or a team and the second best squad in the league was surgical in taking advantage of that.

There's no need to break down the details of this game.  The match exposed everything the fans have been saying about the team this season.  No depth, no pride, and not enough skill or effort.  Fraser put out a B lineup, trying to rest players for the more winnable games in this 3 game week, and our reserves are no longer good enough.  The only players in the starting XI for this one that I'm confident I'd be happy to see in the starting lineup for the opening game of 2023 were Yarbrough and Rosenberry.  Everyone else needs to be playing for their jobs the rest of the season (there are players like Rubio and Price who didn't start for various reasons that don't need to worry about their jobs either).  Even including the subs only Drew Moor should have a guaranteed spot in 2023 (if he doesn't retire).

The worst part about it, as a fan, is that we see the same disinterest from the organization as we saw after the other two 6-0 losses.  No attempt to address it, no statements by leadership or even the players* taking responsibility, and no reason for the fans to think the club sees the deeper problems this team has right now.  For a Front Office that has talked about earning the fans' trust, the last two months has done nothing but throw away whatever they had managed to earn.  Right now they look like every other leadership team this club has had over the last 15+ years.

If anyone was still thinking about the playoffs, this weekend pretty much put paid to that idea.  The Rapids looked nothing like a playoff team while at the same time the teams they are chasing made a strong move to separate themselves from the back.  The playoff line is now at 47 points, to to get to 48 and avoid any tiebreaker scenarios Colorado would need 16 points in the last 7 games, a Bodmer Line of 2.29 pts/game.  And we still have to go to Austin, who just ripped the Shield winners apart on Friday night.  Its quite possible that the Rapids could lose to Nashville on Wednesday and DC on Sunday, leaving us a max possible total of 47.

Obviously, nobody deserves a MOTM award after this one.  On to Nashville with a patchwork defense against the 2nd scorer in the league.

* - if I remember correctly a couple of players did make an extra effort to make a statement taking responsibility after the FSL loss

Doin' A Little East Coast Swing

Colorado heads East for a 3 game week, presumably staying out there all week (I really hope they're not flying back and forth after each game).  First stop, Philly and the Eastern Conference leading Union.  Philadelphia is coming off their third (3rd!) 6+ goal win of the season and their second over DC United alone.  They're also completely healthy and have no players missing, so the Rapids have a mountain to climb to get points tomorrow.  Kickoff is at 5:30pm, and there are 7 games left in the Altitude blackout.

Injury Report: 

OUT: D Seb Anderson, M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price, F Yaya Toure

QUESTIONABLE: D Keegan Rosenberry

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED; M Bryan Acosta

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar

Toure's injury was confirmed as a season=ending ACL tear this week, so I'll be leaving him off the report for the rest of the season alongside Keita and Galvan.  Keegan and Seb are new additions to the injury report, both with right leg injuries.  Needless to say, this is not good.

This is the lineup I'd expect Fraser to play if he's trying to win this game and not worrying about our trip to Nashville on Wednesday and DC next weekend.  We may see some players rotated out, especially since this seems to be the toughest of those 3 games.  Priso and Barrios would be the most likely to rotate in.

Prediction: 3-1 loss, goal by Rubio.  A full-strength Union squad, at home, trying to stay on top of the East against a weakened Rapids squad on the road with a questionable playoff chance?  Yeah, we're not getting anything out of this one.  As they say, No Price, No Points.

Season Ends On Final Kick Saturday Night

For 90+ minutes the Rapids did just enough in an ugly game to get the 3 points they needed to stay in the playoff race.  Then once again, like we've seen all season, the defense switched off for a second, the opposing team took advantage, and now realistically the season is over (we'll get back to that conclusion).  In this case it was, once again, Esteves who switched off.  He took two steps outside to cover empty space while his man moved inside to the ball.  Danny Wilson, now overloaded with two men to cover followed the ball.  Drew Moor dropped off to take Wilson's extra man, leaving a wide open hole in the middle for Ferreira's shot to fly through to tie the goal.  Abubakar was also defending space instead of stepping up.  Sound familiar?

Other than that there's not much to talk about the game.  A nice strike by Lalas early in the second half to g get the lead but otherwise it was a game the ref called very tightly leading to little flow and a lot of back and forth in midfield.  Outside of the goals the teams combined for 5 shots on target, and the goal was the Dynamo's only shot on goal of the second half.

So, lets talk about why I'm calling the season over.  Currently the Rapids sit at 32 points with 8 games to play.  They are on pace for 42 points.  The average number of points for the 7th placed team in a 34 game season is 44 points (the so-called Bodmer Line).  538's projections has Seattle as the 7th placed team with 45 points.  Since 2018 (not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 season) the 7th placed team has had 48 points.

So we know the Rapids will likely need somewhere between 12 and 18 points in the last 8 games to make the playoffs.  Their remaining schedule is three home games and five road games.  If Colorado wins all 3 of their home games they'll still need 3-9  road points in those 5 games.  Right now, after 12 road games, the Rapids have earned 6 points.  They have trips to two of the top three teams in the league (Philly & Austin), two mid-tier teams in a playoff spot, one of which already beat us at home (Nashville & the Galaxy), and the probable Wooden Spoon winner (DC).  If they pull off the win in DC, no gimme given our road  play, and maybe they get draws in Nashville and Carson, that gets them 5 points.

But that's only part of the battle.  The rest of it is winning those 3 home games.  That's a game against San Jose (currently 1 point ahead of Houston and 5 points behind Colorado, Vancouver (2 points ahead of Colorado, and just beat us somewhat convincingly on Wednesday), and Dallas (10 points ahead of the Rapids and trying to clinch a home playoff game).  Can we really expect a team that couldn't close out Houston to win all 3 of those games?

And one last piece of the puzzle.  The Rapids have this week off, then will go to Philly, Nashville, and DC in a week.  Then they'll have another 7 days off and they'll host SJ, Vancouver, and go to Carson in a week.  6 games in 20 days, 4 on the road.

So IF Colorado can get a draw and a win on the road in 3 days, coming off a probable loss in Philly 4 days earlier, and IF they can win back-to-back home games in 4 days and follow it up with a draw 72 hours later in Carson, then they can host Dallas knowing a win over a team fighting for a top playoff spot would likely put them in the playoffs.  If not, then they can go on the road to one of the top teams in the league on Decision Day and hope Austin has everything wrapped up and nothing to play for.

To me, that's a pretty unrealistic set of circumstances.  For all intents and purposes, our season ended on that Houston goal.  We should play the kids the rest of the way and plan for 2023.

Man of the Match:  Nobody.  In a must win game everyone was so flat its not worth giving the award out.

Must win Game In Commerce City Tomorrow Night

Currently the Rapids sit on 31 points with 4 home and 5 road games remaining.  Realistically we probably need at least 16 points to feel comfortable with our playoff chances.  That means even if we win all our remaining home games we still need 4 points from trips to 1st placed Philly, 8th placed Nashville who beat us at home already, last placed in the league DC, 6th placed Galaxy, and 2nd place Austin.  I highly doubt we get points in Philly or Austin.  So as you can see, dropping any points at home to Houston tomorrow night would be all but fatal for our playoff hopes.  Do you see 6-7 points out of those remaining road games?  I don't.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm, and the Altitude blackout count is at 8.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price, F Yaya Toure

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar

There's been no official update to the injury report since Wednesday's game, so I have to assume Price is out again for this one.

I think Fraser probably wants to rest Wilson for this one, but the disaster on Wednesday with Vallecilla doesn't leave us many options other than Wilson and Abubakar.  While Danny didn't play well, he was the better of the two starting CBs.  If Priso doesn't start after what he brought to the play on Wednesday I don't know when he will (unless Price is back and starting).  Everyone else needs to get through one more game before getting some rest.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Barrios.  By any measure Houston is a worse team than us, and we're at home.  The one thing against us is that Houston didn't play midweek and we did.  Despite that I think Colorado bounces back from Wednesday and picks up the vital 3 points, just to keep us hanging on this season a little while longer.