2025 Preview and Predictions

Well we made it through another offseason and its game week!  First we're all going to freeze Tuesday night watching Colorado's 5th appearance in the CCL/CCC, then its off to St. Louis for the league opener on Saturday.

After a rough offseason where many (including me) were openly questioning the plan given that the team hadn't signed anyone other than Sam Bassett after making the trade for defensive cover in Awaziem and Murphy..  Once they moved preseason from Mexico to Florida though the moves started flying.  We added Ali Fadal, Ted Ku-DiPietro, and Josh Atencio, the latter two filling a couple of big areas of need (winger and d-mid).  There's still a bit of a hole when it comes to a backup for Navarro (especially with Yapi injured to start the season) and we might be a bit light in depth in a couple of areas, but it finally feels like the Rapids aren't letting the league run away from them.

That said, I don't know that we're going to see a significant improvement either.  39 games minimum (34 league, 2 CCC, 3 Leagues Cup) from this group is a lot to ask out of our starters, and our backups still feel raw.  Those added competitions are compressed with 4 games in two weeks to start the season and 5 games in 15 days across the Leagues Cup weeks.  We saw what happened last season after using pretty much the first XI through the Leagues Cup, our legs were dead to finish the season.

Its clear the strategy this offseason was to stock up on youth.  We added two U-22s in Ted KDP and Atencio, traded for a smorgasbord of draft picks in this year's and the next two year's drafts, and our one international signing was also a 21 year-old.  At 28 and 25 Awaziem and Murphy were our oldest new faces.  I think the goal by the Front Office was to hold serve this year and be happy to make the playoffs while hopefully avoiding the wild-card game, then see that youth come to fruition in 2026 and 2027. For a club that doesn't have that much support from ownership (though they did cough up cash for KDP) its probably a smart play but in reinforces the point that KSE isn't investing in their team.  Also by trading away half our international slots the focus has turned to young domestic players, but those could be reinforced by internationals once those slots come back next offseason.

There has been talk from Matt Doyle and Tom Bogert that their sources are indicating we'll play a 3-5-2 this season, but the public talk from Armas has reinforced the commitment to the 4-5-1 we used last season.  The preseason games have seemed to reflect that as well.  The 3-5-2 would solve our fullback problem by turning Vines and Cannon into wing-backs, but it forces somebody (likely Cabral) to play more forward than they are really suited for, or relies on Yapi too much.  Its also a formation that doesn't really need a player like Atencio.

Meanwhile the 4-5-1 fits our midfield pieces and we have Navarro as the lone striker, but it does raise the question of how you use Rosenberry, Cannon, Maxso, Awaziem, and Vines. That's 5 starter-level defenders for 4 spots  Maybe the plan/assumption is that between work load, injury, and possibly national team duties it won't be often all 5 are available to start so they'll rotate through positions as needed.

It obvious Navarro will start up top and I think we'll see the Mihailovic-10/Bassett-8 paring most often, with Cabral on one wing.  I give the nod to Ku-DiPietro and Atencio to get the majority of minutes at the other midfield spots, but Larraz, KSB, and both Harris' will push them.  I'm not convinced Fernandez, Ronan, or S. Bassett will see a lot of time.

With that, on to my predictions:

• Its one series and done in the CCC.  Our track record at LAFC is very bad and I don't see that changing this early in the season.
• Likewise the new Leagues Cup format puts us at a disadvantage and we don't progress.  In fact our chances are so unlikely that going into our final game against Cruz Azul in LA Armas pulls the rip cord and uses a heavily rotated roster to save legs for the run-in to the playoffs.
• The Rapids do make the playoffs, but they host the wild-card game (8th overall).  They actually win the wild-card game before bowing out in the next round.
• Sadly they end up in the wild-card because the curse of Sandy bites us again and we lose the Rocky Mountain Cup in the next-to-last regular-season match (I'm half tempted to say we retain it after points & goals are tied, but I've seen this story too many times before).
• At some point, either just before the window closes in May or when the window opens this summer, the Rapids make a move for a short-term backup striker.
• Mihailovic is once again named Player of the Year and makes a run at Valderrama's record of 16 assists in a season
• Navarro is the Golden Boot but will not get to 16 to tie Rubio and Casey.
• Steffen, Mihailovic, and Bassett all get call-ups this year
• This is the last year Yapi really features for this team.  He may still be on the roster in 2026 but as a deep bench option only.
• Atencio will be seen as the sneaky-good acquisition of this offseason, justifying the expense.

Rapids Make A Big Trade And Drop The New Kit

I was going to start off with yesterday's news of the kit drop but something bigger dropped this morning.  The opening act was the Rapids trading another international slot to FSL for A ridiculous $275K of GAM.  On the high end international slots usually go for $200K or a bit more, so FSL must be desperate.  They'll get $225K of it this year and $50K next year.  Colorado has now gotten $725K of GAM and two first round picks from trading 4 international slots next season.

Or I should say that had $725K of GAM because in the main event today they sent $1.3M of GAM plus up to $300K of add-ons to Seattle for Josh Atencio.  The GAM is split recently between 2025 and 2026 and Seattle also retains a20% sell-on clause.  

Atencio is a 23 year old (as of last month) homegrown midfielder who's under contract through 2027 with a 2028 option.  He'll take the Rapids last U-22 spot (due to when the contract was signed) alongside Cole and Ted KDP.  The Sounders were working on converting him from a defensive midfielder to a center back this preseason, given their logjam in midfield and a young Academy player coming up at the position, but he's earned more minutes in midfield then he's been able to get in the Emerald City.

He immediately becomes Colorado's best option at d-mid, a position we've been weak in for a couple of years, and is probably the favorite to grab the starting spot next to Bassett once he settles in, though Ronan and particularly Larraz will push him for minutes.  He also has experience playing with Mihailovic as they were both on the Olympic team last summer.  This is another young American looking to step his game up to the next level to get on the National team radar, like Djordje, Zack, Cole, Sam, and Reggie.  At this point the Rapids are a forward and a center back away from having a team that could have probably qualified for the old Hex in World Cup Qualifying.  :D

With this move you have to figure the team is pretty set for the year.  All 6 "special" positions are filled for the long-term (at least this season) with the three U-22s and Cabral, Mihailovic, and Navarro as the three Designated Players.  Also we're down to 4 international slots and we have 5 international players (Navarro, Awaziem, Ronan, Amadou, and Fadal).  Presumably Amadou or Fadal is destined for Rapids 2 or a loan out, or possibly the two of them will split time moving between R2 and the first-team.  Depending on how players moved up from the Supplemental Roster we might have one senior roster spot left but with no international, U-22, or DP slot I would assume any signing would be more for depth than a big splash.  Though we do have GAM left if we wanted to bring in a player (no idea on if we have cap space though).

Now going back to yesterday's news the team launched the Headwaters Kit:

My first thought is that it looks better than the leaked image but I'm still not fully sold.  I'll have to see it in person.  The Rapids continued their tradition of partnering with a local related charity, in this case making a donation to the Colorado Water Trust. a Boulder-based non-profit dedicated to preserving Colorado's waterways.

Of course the biggest drawback of the new kits is something out of the Rapids' control.  The fact that a customized authentic will now run you $200 after taxes.  A ridiculous number that MLS and Adidas should be ashamed about.  I will continue to pass on the new kits, no matter hoe much I like them, when I can do things like support Football Associations in the Caribbean and South Pacific through Stimulus Athletic and Stingz Sportswear.  The latter in  particular has worked with a number of South Pacific countries to help kick-start their programs by capitalizing on the increased interest in kit collection, having created kits for the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, and Kiribati with all profits going back to the FA's to support grassroots soccer in those countries.  And I've gotten all 3, including shipping from the UK, for less than one MLS authentic.

Assorted Bits And Pieces

There hasn't been any major news in the last few days.  The already known deals were made official (Ku-DiPietro bought, international slot sent to Columbus) and there is no serious rumors of other changes.  There have been a couple of things of note though.

First a better version of the kit leak has dropped.  It will be out officially tomorrow but its clearly more green than the initial leak.  I'm still not all that impressed but we'll see how it looks on the field.

The other thing this week is that we got our Leagues Cup schedule.

    Santos Laguna at the Dick on July 31st

    Tijuana at the Dick on August 3rd

    Cruz Azul at Dignity Health Sports Park (Galaxy's stadium) on August 7th

Combined with the league games on either side of these three (at Philly and at Minnesota) the club will play 5 games in 15 days in all 4 time zones.  Last year we rode our starters into the ground in the Leagues Cup and then stumbled to the finish line of the regular season.  Depth will be an issue again this year with this schedule.

One last interesting tidbit thanks to Reddit.   Three new logos trademarked by KSE.

This immediately led to some talk about rebranding either the first team or Rapids 2.  Closer look though shows that the third image is very similar to the badge on our new kit and the first image is the type of logo I could see being used as a jock tag for the 30th anniversary merchandise the team has announced is coming.  That just leaves the second Mile High SC image that could be a rebrand for Rapids 2 but I think is more likely to be a line of merchandise similar to the NBA City uniforms.

Related, today the Rapids launched a new app for iPhone and Android and images similar to the first and third of those trademarked images are used in it.

Tomorrow we'll get the new kit officially and I'll drop pics here either tomorrow night or over the weekend (it is Valentines Day tomorrow after all, plus the start of the Scotties).

Rapids Sign Fadal, New Kit Leaks

An odd Saturday press release from the team as they announced the signing of Ghanaian-born midfielder Ali Fadal from Spanish-side Valencia.  This rumor leaked late in the week but it was hard to evaluate because Fadal has had an up and down career so far.  He was signed by Valencia in 2023 and made his first appearance for them that year, but that's the only appearance he had with the first team.  He suffered an injury that set him back and he's been playing with their B team in the 4th division most recently.  Fadal was considered one of the best youth prospects in Ghana so this is a classic Padraig Smith prospect signing.

He's signed to a two year deal with two years of club options after that.  Braidon Nourse from the Denver Post is reporting we're trading an international slot to the Crew for GAM and their first round draft pick next year (which would give us 4 first round picks).  Combined with this signing that would leave the Rapids with no open international slots, so any further additions would have to be domestic.  At this point though I expect we're largely done for the off/preseason.

The other bit of news today is that FootyHeadlines.com dropped a leak of our new away shirt:

This is obviously not a press release quality image, in fact is probably a FIFA video game image (that's where these things seem to leak).  I expect the actual shirt to be mint green with darker green spots.  Even saying that though this is underwhelming.  I fear its going to look like a light green shirt a painter was wearing while working.  And I've long been of the opinion that you don't mess with the badge unless you have a standard secondary badge or you absolutely nail it (Blackburn currently falls into both these categories).  The Rapids don't have a standard secondary badge they use and this badge is not great IMO.  Plus that Adidas logo looks huge for some reason.

The good news is that MLS kits are grossly overpriced and I see no reason to spend money on this one.

One In, One Out, One Changed

Going in reverse order of the title and going fairly quickly since I'm on the road in our Mexicali office tonight a set of roster updates.

One changed: Kevin Cabral has gotten his green card and will count as a domestic player going forward.

One out: The Rapids and Daniel Chacon have agreed to a mutual separation of his contract.  He has already been linked (I don't think its official yet but it will be) with Alajuelense in his native Costa Rica.  The Chacon signing always felt like a move to sign a guy to make money off of him, not to improve the team.  Which was good because he made 8 appearances with Rapids 2 and none with the first team, while going on loan twice to make 11 appearances each time.  So 30 appearances over 3 years and walks away with no transfer fee paid.  To be fair his injuries derailed the plan for him, but it is another in a long line of international signings with "potential" that didn't pan out.

One in: This isn't official yet, but reported by Tom Bogert this morning and confirmed by everyone from Burgundy Wave, Matt Doyle, and the Denver Post the Rapids are buying homegrown midfielder Ted Ku-DiPietro from DC United.  This is part of the new cash transfer fee system MLS announced last month.  Colorado will buy him for $1.125 million with up to $275,000 in add-ons.

Ku-DiPietro was recently re-signed to a U22 contract so he'll have a low cap hit.  He's also a domestic player who's already familiar with MLS.  He had a strong 2023 season but suffered in 2024 (as did most DC players) and dealt with injury as well.  The thinking is he was misused in DC's system last year but will be a good match for Colorado's system.

If we play the 4-2-3-1 we did last year he will probably slot in at one wing with Cabral on the other side.  If we go with the rumored 3-5-2 he's more likely to be a supersub off the bench to spell Djordje, Bassett, or possibly Cabral up top.

Its nice to see what is, essentially, the Bombito money starting to be spent.  Along with the GAM we sent Cinci. to get Awaziem and Murphy that's essentially 3 players brought in with that sale, and we've only spent about a third of the initial fee.  Its also our first significant attacking signing since bringing in Djordje (unless you're going to count bringing in Navarro on a permanent deal last summer).