Here We Go Again

So, I guess we're going to have more of this on-again off-again season.  Phase 1, covering 6 games, starts on Saturday at the Dick against FSL.  Lets reset where we are right now.

First, watching the game.  No fans will be allowed into the Dick for the 3 home games of this 6 game stretch.  Also, frustratingly, Altitude and Comcast/DISH are still at an impasse.  While Altitude lifted their blackout for the Nuggets and Avs playoff games, there's no indication they will do the same for the Rapids regular season games on ESPN+.  That leaves fans in Denver with the only option to see the games being a DirectTV subscription.  I expect other not so legitimate methods will be used by many.

Second, what's at stake.  MLS has announced that 8 Western Conference and 10 Eastern Conference teams will make the playoffs this season (the difference being because the East has two more teams in it than the West).  With such an unusual season its hard to draw a Bodmer Line for making the playoffs as there's nothing to compare it to, but over the last 5 years the 8th placed team has finished around 1.25 pts/game.  That means that after this 6 game stretch, making for 11 total games so far this season, a team would want to be 14 points to feel like their in a playoff spot.  The Rapids are currently at 7.  So they're looking for 7 points over the 6 games to at least be in the playoff race.  Given our expectations coming into the season that's a bare minimum this team should be accomplishing.  In reality they need to earn more like 10 points to be meeting expectations.

Also, for the two games against FSL, the Rocky Mountain Cup is at stake.  The Committee of 10 has decided that the two scheduled games will be the full RMC competition for 2020 and the Cup will be awarded after the second game, with a couple caveats.  First, both games have to be played.  Second, each team has to host one of the games.  If, due to COVID, only one game is played or if one team hosts both games then the Cup will not be awarded.  Also, to be clear, the MLS Is Back game in Orlando is not part of the competition.

And as a reminder, I am currently on the Committee of 10

Third, the shape of the team.  After a great run in the last 2/3rds of 2019 and an good brace of results to start the season the MLS Is Back tournament took the wind out of the team's sails.  While the play improved over the three games getting 1 point out of teams we're going to be playing again in this six game stretch is not a positive sign.  The biggest problem seems to be that this team doesn't appear to have as 90 minute MLS quality center back on the roster.  Abubakar is good but is inconsistent over 90 minutes, Trusty can't get off the bench, Father Time got a few steps closer to Drew Moor in the offseason, and the less said about Wilson's play the better.  Figuring out the right combo on the backline is going to be crucial for whatever the rest of this season is.

Beyond the backline there are questions about who starts in attack.  Kamara did not have the best of tournaments and Rubio is lurking waiting for a shot.  Likewise Fraser moved Namli to the wing for the last two games after Shinyashiki had an awful appearance against FSL in game 1.  That's not the best position for our DP.  Meanwhile Lewis came off the bench and scored twice, so he's clearly pushing for more playing time (the club reportedly turned down a borderline insulting offer from Barnsley for him this week).  There are lots of options but no clear answers.

Three weeks, 6 games.  Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday, a week off, and then Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday again.  We don't know what the season will be after that, but we should have a good idea of what this team is at the end of it.