Draft News

So just as we headed into the busiest time of the holiday season the Rapids made a move.  On Thursday Colorado traded $75K of GAM to Toronto to swap positions in the Re-Entry and Waiver Drafts (we got #2, they got #22).  With the #2 pick in the Re-Entry Draft we then selected the rights to Bryan Acosta, who's option was not picked up by Dallas.  Acosta is coming off a DP contract with FCD and was making $650K last year, but by waiting for Phase 2 of the Re-Entry process the Rapids are only committed to making a bona fide offer to him within a week, we do not need to pick him up at his option number.

The new Acosta is, much like our current Acosta, an international central mid.  The difference is that Bryan plays for Honduras and wants to be a bit more forward than Kellyn.  A number of Rapids fans a re a bit puzzled adding to our already stuffed midfield of Price, Kellyn, Kay, and Bassett.  This is probably an indicator that Cole Bassett is going to go to Europe as expected, but even with that its going to be hard to get everyone the playing time they're  looking for, unless we're going to be changing formations.  So a number of fans have taken this as evidence that Kellyn Acosta is also on the move to Europe.

I think that's jumping to conclusions.  We're going to have a stuffed schedule next year, especially if we take the CCL seriously, so having more depth is a good thing.  Plus Bryan Acosta isn't signed yet.  Even if we do bring him in and nobody other than Bassett moves (and I don't think we make this move if Bassett isn't at least leaving) we still have options with Kellyn Acosta being able to play wing back and even Kaye being able to move more forward.

At this point though, Padraig Smith has put together a series of winning moves with intra-league selections.  Benny Feilhaber is really the only mistake he made and he still managed to get a decent package in return when trading him to SKC. (Benezet was technically in France when we acquired him and wouldn't count).  I'm willing to give him some time to see how this all turns out, I mean, we've still got 52 games until our first match of 2022.  ;)

Schedule Analysis

So far its all quiet on the player front.  There are a couple of rumors about players coming and going out there, but nothing confirmed.  In light of that, on to the delayed schedule analysis.

First of all we now know that the Rapids will play their first round CCL games on February 17th (in Guatemala) and 23rd (at the Dick).  Looks like kickoff on the 23rd will be at 6:30pm, which means things are going to be...cold by the end of the game probably.

After those two its into the  MLS season.  We already know we're starting on the road at LAFC before coming home to play Atlanta, one of 8 Eastern teams we're playing next year.  The Rapids did not get a favorable Eastern Conference schedule, playing 5 of the 6 2021 playoff teams, plus Nashville (who's moving to the West).  The only playoff team we miss is New England.  We also get DC and Columbus, the two teams just outside the playoffs.  We do get expansion Charlotte but otherwise we have to play the teams that finished 2nd through 9th in the East in 2021.

Outside of that we  know we're playing everyone in the West twice.  So its really a matter of when we play them.  The first one to look at is always FSL, who we get at home on April 2nd and in Sandy on July 9th.  I have to look but it feels like more often than not we finish the RMC in Utah, which seems an unfair benefit to them.  Its certainly happened 3 years in a row now.  We get Dallas very early, April 9th, in Dallas but then don't see them again until the last home game of the year in October.  Gary Smith and the rest of the 2010 Rapids gang return to Colorado over Memorial Day weekend.

As far as frequency of games go, our first 3 game week is in late May when LAFC and Seattle at home on the weekends have a trip to KC in-between them.  That's as light a 3-game week as the Rapids can have when it comes to travel.  After that Memorial Day game the Rapids don't play at home again until the 4th of July, with only two games total in June, both on the road.  In the two weeks starting on 4th of July the Rapids have 4 games, all but the RMC match in Sandy at home.  Again, another light travel for short rest games.

Getting into the back half of the season there's another 3-game week in August, with two home games around a trip to Vancouver.  Not as easy as KC and Sandy but it could be a lot worse.  Then after a week off there's another 3-game week finishing on Labor Day weekend, this time all on the road in Philly, Nashville, and DC.  I fully expect (COVID permitting) the Rapids to set up for a week in the Philly/DC area instead of flying back to Denver after all 3 games.  So travel won't be that big of a deal that week.  Then again after another week break it's 3 more games in a week, this time with the first two at home before a trip to LA-LA land to play the Galaxy.  The team gets two full weeks off before the final two games, the aforementioned home finale against Dallas and then a trip to Austin to finish the regular season.

That 3-game East Coast swing before Labor Day is the only time we have more than 2 home or away games in a row.  As you can see by that tight end of the season schedule (9 games in 5 weeks) its going to be important to build up a bit of a buffer in the first 2/3rds of the season while we're more well-rested.  Twice we have long road trips between games, but they're both a week apart.  We go between NY and the Northwest on both of them, first from NYCFC to Portland, then Seattle to RBNY the second time.

Overall the pacing and the travel in this schedule is fairly favorable.  Of course we don't know how much added travel and subtracted rest we might get early in the season with our CCL play.  The real negative on this schedule is getting all the tough Eastern teams and not getting teams like Miami, Chicago, and Cincinnati.

Scheduling!

We got both the full 2022 MLS schedule and our CCL draw today.  Full schedule analysis will be saved for this weekend (hopefully) but two things that stand out is that we have an early Rocky Mountain Cup home match on April 2nd, and the week leading into Labor Day is a 3-game week in Philly, Nashville, and DC, which seems like a doable road trip for people so-inclined (at the very least got to Philly, spend a week seeing Philly and DC, and go to the game in DC).

The CCL draw is a little easier to analyze.  Our first opponent is Comunicaciones FC of Guatemala.  The first leg will be in Guatemala on February 15th-17th with the return leg at the Dick on Feb 22nd-24th.  This is a team we should be able to beat, even coming out of preseason.  Assuming we don't fall flat on our face we'll get the winner of the NYCFC-Santos de Guapiles (Costa Rica), again with the first leg away and the second leg at the Dick.

Should we get through that match and onto the semifinals we'll get the remaining team out of Guastatoya (Guatemala), Montagua (Honduras), the Sounders, and Leon.  Leon would be an intriguing matchup given that's where Yarbrough came to us from, and rolling it all the way back to 1996 that's also where Marcelo Balboa came to us from.  We also faced Leon in the first round of the then CONCACAF Champions Cup in 1998 after being the runner up in MLS Cup '97, being eliminated 403 on aggregate after beating Leon 1-0 in the first leg at Mile High.

This is about as solid a draw as we could hope for if we want to finally make some noise in international play.  Only 1 of the 4 Mexican teams ended up on our side of the bracket, and they're in the upper half while we're in the lower half.  So there are two chances for them to be eliminated before we could even face them.  Of course none of that matters if we don't take care of business, first by beating a team we should beat, and then taking out a team we should also beat, or taking out the defending MLS Cup champs.  Both of these are absolutely possible.

No Rapids Taken In The Expansion Draft

The Rapids escaped being hurt by the expansion draft again this year.

Expansion Draft and Reviewing Predictions

First up, we got the news on who the  Rapids left unprotected in tomorrow's expansion draft.  One thing I didn't realize in making my predictions last week is that Auston Trusty is no longer on a homegrown contract but he still counts as a homegrown for automatic protection in the expansion draft.  So that would allow one more additional protected player, which I would have used on Danny Wilson.

Of the 12 protected players the Rapids and I agreed on 11 of them (Abubakar, Acosta, Barrios, Esteves, Galvan, Kaye, Lewis, Price, Rosenberry, Trusty, and Yarbrough).  The one place we disagreed was that I would have protected Rubio, and the Rapids chose to protect Shinyashiki instead.

Given the rumors out of Chile that Colo-Colo is interested in Rubio I find this an interesting move.  Either the Rapids don't think those rumors amount to anything and are happy to risk losing Rubio's large contract in the draft, or there's a side-deal with Charlotte not to take him.  I can't image risking losing a transfer fee in the expansion draft.

If I had to bet Charlotte takes nobody, but if we do lose somebody its probably going to be Rubio or Irwin.  I say Irwin as I was reminded today that he's a Charlotte native, so the club might want to have a hometown guy on the roster.  We'll know tomorrow.

Secondly, its time for me to face the music.  Back at the beginning of the season (as I do every year) I made a number of predictions, and as I do every year its time to review them to see what I got right and what I didn't.

• Rapids are comfortably in a playoff spot (top 7 make playoffs this year) for most of the season and finish 5th, but they push hard for that 4th spot and a home playoff game

Well that was a miss, but it was a miss in a good way.  And in my defense, I didn't see any serious prediction from anyone that had the Rapids higher than 5th.

• Because of that they surprise the 4th placed team in the playoffs and win on the road, but fall in the next round

Can I take credit for predicting the Rapids would lose in the conference semifinals?  No?  Half a point?  Half a point. 

• The do stumble a bit out of the gate which means they don't qualify for one of the 8 MLS spots in the USOC

N/A as once again, actually the day after I made the prediction, the USOC was cancelled

• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup again, despite 2 of 3 being played in Utah

No #$#%#! comment

• Rubio wins the team Golden Boot with double-digit goals

Rubio didn't win it, and the winner didn't have double-digit goals.  Clear miss.

• Namli is the team MVP (yes, same prediction as last year)

Ah....no.   (It was Price)

• Vines repeats as defensive player of the year

I think if he had stayed all season this would have been accurate, given that Vines + Trusty at LB might have been our DotY.  But a miss.

• One but only one American starter is sold in the summer window (extra credit prediction, its Bassett)

Nailed it, but missed the extra credit

• The Rapids add an international player in the summer window, but not a major blockbuster player on paper

Hello Lucas Esteves

• Mayaka will not be in the Rookie of the Year conversation despite being picked as the consensus #1 before the draft

Well I nailed that one, though I expected more than we got out of him (which was nothing at the first team level)

• The other 6 playoff teams in the West will be LAFC, Seattle, Portland, SKC, Minnesota, and San Jose

4 out of 6 (5 out of 7 when you include the Rapids)?  I'm going to call that good enough to give me a point.

• Acosta and Vines get National Team callups during the season, Lewis and Trusty do not.  I'm pushing on Bassett getting a callup or not

Ok, Lewis did get 1 appearance at the Gold Cup but otherwise I got these right.  Counting it. 

So that's a generous 5.5 points out of 11.  A severe regression from my 8 of 11 in 2020.  Not a good year for me, but a great year for the Rapids.

For the rest of this week we can expect news on the expansion, waiver, and re-entry drafts, and the schedule and CCL draw on Wednesday.  I have a busy week of family obligations with the holidays though, so don't be surprised if you don't see a lot about those  right away.  I'll try to get any news up quickly (like if we lose/add anyone in the drafts, or our CCL opponent) but analysis of the moves or the schedule may not come until this weekend sometime.