Monday, March 18, 2024

Rapids Fumble Their Way To A Draw


Well, that was something.  A game where it felt like the Rapids were going to lose a game they should of won they pulled out a draw at the last minute.  It was both an unexpected point gained and two points lost at the same time.  IF at the beginning of the season you had told Rapids fans they would have 5 points after 4 games, including a win over FSL, we all would have taken it.  At the same time though, we dropped 2 easy points against Nashville and we probably should have won this game, so its not hard to feel like we're not where we should be based on our play.

At the same time, after the first 45 minutes in Portland this was already looking like a lost season.  Certainly the Rapids teams of the last couple of years would have gotten down after giving up another cheap PK on a hand ball.  Instead the Rapids kept playing good defense and looked for opportunities to get on the board.  Seattle made it easier picking up a mustard-and-ketchup red with about 30 minutes left and Colorado thought they were back in the game when they got a penalty kick shortly thereafter.  Then Mihailović stepped up and took the PK attempt from Navarro, only to hit a rather poor shot close to Seattle's keeper.   Not nearly good enough for a team-record signing.  He partially made up for it in the 88th minute when his free kick was pushed onto the bar by the keeper, only for Cabral to be waiting to tap-in the rebound to level the score.  Cabral had a chance to be a double-hero late but somehow failed to get any contact on a corner inside the 6 and the game ended 1-1.

Again, at halftime in Portland this team looked like a mess, but since then they've only allowed three goals, and two of those were penalties off of stupid handballs.  Sorry Rosenberry, a captain ahs to be smarter than to leave his arm out like that (the less said about Lewis' idiocy, the better).  The defense has managed to figure out their problems fairly quickly.  They'll get tested in a couple of weeks when they go to Miami but against some average offenses they've held their own.

The same can't be said for the offense.  Its telling that the Rapids best non-PK/scoring shot this season (based on xG from FotMob) has come from Sam Vines, midway through that first half in Portland.  There are some real questions to ask about the guys making the top salaries on this roster:
  • Djordje Mihailovic - Has not looked like a TAM-level player, much less a "team-record signing" player yet.  His game on Saturday, other than the free kick, was fairly bad and taking a PK away from a guy who made one last week and then hitting an easily saved shot is a bad look.
  • Rafael Navarro - Does good things off the ball, but he's being paid to score and he's not scoring.
  • Kevin Cabral - Well, we all knoew going into this season who Cabral was and that hasn't changed.  Credit for being in the right place to finish off that goal this week, but is few goals he's had for Colorado have all been like that, where somebody else does all the work and then he has a simple finish.  For a DP he needs to be doing more.
  • Lamine Diack - A TAM-level player who's here on loan for the first 20 games can't get a start 4 games in when the players starting in front him are out injured and we play a striker out of position on the wing instead?  That's a really bad sign.  If we don't see him this week its hard to think of him as anything but a bust already.
That's a lot of investment that's not being converted into goals.  DM has a combined xG of 0.86, 0.79 of which comes from the saved penalty.  Navarro's highest non-PK xG is 0.14.  Cabral has two shots outside his goal, of 0.11 and 0.08.  These need to turn around today.

The Rapids are a team that can compete defensively but are still bottom of the league in generating and converting chances.  So far we've scored from a corner kick, an own goal, a penalty, an open play goal, and a free kick.  You can't rely on penalties and own goals, and 3 goals in 4 games is the same pace as we scored at in 2023.  Offensively only a couple of lucky breaks has us looking better than last season.

Man of the Match: Oli Larraz.  Really this feels as much an award for the last couple of games as one just about how he played in Seattle.  He was good in Seattle, but he's been real solid the last three games.

Saturday, March 16, 2024

A Chance For A Result In The Emerald City?


Colorado goes to my hometown with a chance to get a result for the first time in a long time, maybe ever.  Seattle is struggling to start the season with only 1 goal in their first two games (last week's game was rained out in Philly).  The Rapids aren't doing much better, but after a horrid first half in Portland their defense has given up one goal from the run of play and one PK on a stupid handball.  High-scoring this is unlikely to be.  Kickoff is an early 1:30pm MT today as the game is on FOX as well as Apple TV.  I'm not sure who FOX will have on the (lesser video quality) broadcast but Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth will have the Apple TV call.

Player Availability:
OUT: Conor Ronan (knee)
QUESTIONABLE: Jasper Löffelsend (hamstring)

We found out this week that the knee injury that forced Ronan to be subbed in the 11th minute last week will keep him on the sidelines for 6-8 weeks.  Not great news.   Seattle will be missing Paula, de la Vega, and Frei so they're really hurting.



With Ronan out and Löffelsend also unlikely to start (especially on turf) I have to assume we see Diack.  If we're not going to start him in this game missing those two players, what was the point of a 6 month loan?  Other than that the only real question is Harris or Fernandez at right wing, I think we stick with Fernandez.

Prediction: 0-0 draw.  I'm not convinced that either of these teams can score reliably, but our defense is looking better.  My main concern is that Jordan Morris starts on the right and eats our left side alive like FSL was doing unsuccessfully last week.  But they still don't have a finisher and neither do we so a screless draw seems a reasonable expectation.

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Rapids Return Priso North Of The Border

Colorado made a trade today, sending Ralph Priso to Vancouver in exchange for Vancouver's later of their two first round picks next year and their natural third round pick.  They can also get up to $150K in GAM based on performance.  Tom Bogert reported there would also be a 33% sell on clause which wasn't officially announced.

This is a pretty good return for a player who clearly wasn't progressing and wasn't even making the gameday roster.  Bogert's report says Wayne Frederick had passed him on the depth chart.  So getting a first-round draft pick after being successful (apparently) with Frederick and with Bombito last season and then another pick on top of that is good business.

Priso was originally acquired as part of the trade that sent Kaye to Toronto.  Winding it back a step further we originally traded $1M in GAM and a international slot for a season to LAFC for Kaye and their first round pick.  We turned that pick into $125K in GAM and Markanich.  Markanich was traded for $75K in GAM and St. Louis's first round pick which we turned in another $75K in GAM.

So just from the Kaye trade we ended up with Kaye and $275K in GAM, plus a few games from Markanich.

We then traded Kaye for $1.025M in GAM, an international slot, TFC's 2023 first-round pick, and Priso.  The pick became Moise Bombito, and Priso has now become two more picks.

So in the end we gained $300K in GAM, Moise Bombito, and two picks, plus all the games Markanich, Priso, and Kaye played for the club.  No matter what you think about Markanich and Priso, that's some good work.  Arguably, given Smith's track record, that's better than what he would have done with the initial $1M of GAM we sent to LAFC for Kaye.

Speaking of Bombito, he was called up today for Canada for the Copa America qualifier playoff in two weeks.  He'll be available for this week's game in Seattle, but will then head to Dallas to join up with the Canadian National Team.  He'll miss our next home game against Houston as the playoff game is the same day.

Lastly today the roster rules for the MLS Next Pro teams playing in the Open Cup leaked.  Players will have to be loaned to the MLS Next Pro side from the MLS team for at least 90 days to be eligible and no DP or TAM players are eligible.  Also any players so loaned have to average less than 15 minutes a game through this weekend's MLS games.  Fernandez, Harris, Ronan Navarro, Vines, Larraz, DM, Steffen, Rosenberry, Maxso, Bombito, Bassett, Cabral, and Diack are all ineligible under those rules, and Löffelsend will be ineligible if he plays 19 minutes or more this weekend (Yapi, Lewis, and Travis could all lose eligibility if they play enough minutes in Seattle as well).

Really though, the three month loan requirement is the killer.  I can't see loaning anyone who's likely to get any real playing time this year to Rapids 2 for 3 months just so they can play in the USOC.  Its going to be Nate Jones, Wayne Frederick, or Michael Edwards that might be considered.


Monday, March 11, 2024

Rapids Finally Get 2024 Started With An RMC Win!


It took two and a half games but the Colorado Rapids finally decided to join the 2024 season in the second half Saturday night.  In the process they also frustrated FSL en route to a 2-1 win and reclaiming thee advantage in this year's Rocky Mountain Cup.  Now 45 minutes doesn't erase the other 225 minutes this season (or the 34 games last season) but for the first time in a while there's a bit of hope across the fanbase.  It was a massive win for this club and its fans.

Lets get through that first half though.  It was rough for 30 minutes and not great for the last 15.  We spent more of the first 10 minutes down a man than at full strength due to aa momentary injury to Larraz and a more serious one to Ronan.  One that would force him to be subbed out in the 11th minute for Löffelsend.  For the next 20+ minutes FSL had their run of the game, including a goal in the 20th minute that came right through Löffelsend.  To be fair to Jasper, Mihailovic sent him a ball with no options, at all four cardinal points the closest player was in FSL red.  After the turnover Maxsø seems to have lost track of his man and didn't know he was on his back shoulder, which made the finish from the cross easy.

Colorado slowly worked themselves back into the game and got a lucky break in the 41st minute with a handball in the box by FSL.  Navarro finished the PK (though it looked like Bassett wanted it originally) and the Rapids were a bit lucky to go into the locker room tied at half.  Whatever Armas said or did in their worked, because Colorado was much more focused and aggressive in the next 45.  Bassett finally got on the board in the 70th minute with the Rapids' first goal from open play this season (corner, own goal, PK for the others) and the team managed a combination of good defense and luck to ride out the win.

Other Thoughts:

  • I'll admit, 30 minutes in I thought we were looking at another disaster in Sandy and what was likely a lost Rocky Mountain Cup and a cusp of a lost season.  The 2022 and 2023 Rapids would have lost this game.
  • FSL was bombing down our left side at will in the first half.  I don't know if the tactics we were playing were pulling Vines out of position or if there was confusion but it was not a good look for Sam.
  • Despite being a better team in the second half FSL still had the majority of possession in every 5 minute interval in the half.  That's not a combination that normally leads to a shutout.
  • Löffelsend had a rough night and showed why Larraz has been starting the first three games.  He got better as the night went on, though.
  • At the end of this one the Rapids were doing to FSL what they normally due to us.  Frustrating them, killing the clock, and working the refs.  Fun to be on the better side of that for the first time in a while.
  • Bassett had a great game.  It was a classic Goal Bassett goal where he sets up the initial shot and continues his run into the box to be available for a second chance.  It was also his 100th appearance with the club.
  • Good to see Navarro get on the scoresheet.  Only a penalty, but maybe its the jump-start he needs.
  • Fernandez got his first start and while he didn't seem to be as involved as you would expect, he popped up at opportune moments to make a play.
  • Mihailovic though, still needs to be providing more to justify his DP status & salary.
  • There are two more game sin this year's Rocky Mountain Cup,  One in Sandy on Volcano Day (May 18th) and back here in Commerce City on the 55th anniversary of the lunar landing.  Appropriate since this game was on my birthday.  One win or two draws and the Cup is ours.
Man of the Match: Moise Bombito.  I said I'd bring this back when the team changed, and they changed.  A lot of that was due to Bombito's steady play on the back line.  He's gone from college to a Canadian Nat and a MLS starter in a little over a season.

Friday, March 8, 2024

Rocky Mountain Cup 2024


Well, here we are.  Nobody needs to explain what's on the line tomorrow in Sandy.  The first of three games in the 2024 Rocky Mountain Cup and a Rapids team still looking for their first road win since May 6th of last year (at the Galaxy).  We haven't beat FSL since August 21st 2021, and have only won at Questionably Racist Name Field once, the 5-0 shellacking we gave them in 2020 to win the Cup.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30pm, and Apple TV is giving us Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu on the call.  If you know Spanish, or just prefer to listen to somebody you know understands this rivalry even if you don't, Jorge Perez-Navarro and our own Marcelo Balboa will have the call.

Player Availability
OUT: Kimani Stewart-Baynes (illness)

At least this year our injury reports have been short.  Everyone likely to be picked is once again available for Armas tomorrow night.  FSL has multiple people missing due to injury, including having just lost key midfielder Pablo Ruiz for the season.


I haven't seen anything to suggest Armas is going to make a lineup change, so I assume we're going to see the same XI from the first two matches.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Given our long track record its hard to see anything but a loss coming out of this one.  Maybe we surprise and get a 1-1 or 0-0 draw but that's best case.  And if FSL gets 2 its over.