Draft News

So just as we headed into the busiest time of the holiday season the Rapids made a move.  On Thursday Colorado traded $75K of GAM to Toronto to swap positions in the Re-Entry and Waiver Drafts (we got #2, they got #22).  With the #2 pick in the Re-Entry Draft we then selected the rights to Bryan Acosta, who's option was not picked up by Dallas.  Acosta is coming off a DP contract with FCD and was making $650K last year, but by waiting for Phase 2 of the Re-Entry process the Rapids are only committed to making a bona fide offer to him within a week, we do not need to pick him up at his option number.

The new Acosta is, much like our current Acosta, an international central mid.  The difference is that Bryan plays for Honduras and wants to be a bit more forward than Kellyn.  A number of Rapids fans a re a bit puzzled adding to our already stuffed midfield of Price, Kellyn, Kay, and Bassett.  This is probably an indicator that Cole Bassett is going to go to Europe as expected, but even with that its going to be hard to get everyone the playing time they're  looking for, unless we're going to be changing formations.  So a number of fans have taken this as evidence that Kellyn Acosta is also on the move to Europe.

I think that's jumping to conclusions.  We're going to have a stuffed schedule next year, especially if we take the CCL seriously, so having more depth is a good thing.  Plus Bryan Acosta isn't signed yet.  Even if we do bring him in and nobody other than Bassett moves (and I don't think we make this move if Bassett isn't at least leaving) we still have options with Kellyn Acosta being able to play wing back and even Kaye being able to move more forward.

At this point though, Padraig Smith has put together a series of winning moves with intra-league selections.  Benny Feilhaber is really the only mistake he made and he still managed to get a decent package in return when trading him to SKC. (Benezet was technically in France when we acquired him and wouldn't count).  I'm willing to give him some time to see how this all turns out, I mean, we've still got 52 games until our first match of 2022.  ;)

Schedule Analysis

So far its all quiet on the player front.  There are a couple of rumors about players coming and going out there, but nothing confirmed.  In light of that, on to the delayed schedule analysis.

First of all we now know that the Rapids will play their first round CCL games on February 17th (in Guatemala) and 23rd (at the Dick).  Looks like kickoff on the 23rd will be at 6:30pm, which means things are going to be...cold by the end of the game probably.

After those two its into the  MLS season.  We already know we're starting on the road at LAFC before coming home to play Atlanta, one of 8 Eastern teams we're playing next year.  The Rapids did not get a favorable Eastern Conference schedule, playing 5 of the 6 2021 playoff teams, plus Nashville (who's moving to the West).  The only playoff team we miss is New England.  We also get DC and Columbus, the two teams just outside the playoffs.  We do get expansion Charlotte but otherwise we have to play the teams that finished 2nd through 9th in the East in 2021.

Outside of that we  know we're playing everyone in the West twice.  So its really a matter of when we play them.  The first one to look at is always FSL, who we get at home on April 2nd and in Sandy on July 9th.  I have to look but it feels like more often than not we finish the RMC in Utah, which seems an unfair benefit to them.  Its certainly happened 3 years in a row now.  We get Dallas very early, April 9th, in Dallas but then don't see them again until the last home game of the year in October.  Gary Smith and the rest of the 2010 Rapids gang return to Colorado over Memorial Day weekend.

As far as frequency of games go, our first 3 game week is in late May when LAFC and Seattle at home on the weekends have a trip to KC in-between them.  That's as light a 3-game week as the Rapids can have when it comes to travel.  After that Memorial Day game the Rapids don't play at home again until the 4th of July, with only two games total in June, both on the road.  In the two weeks starting on 4th of July the Rapids have 4 games, all but the RMC match in Sandy at home.  Again, another light travel for short rest games.

Getting into the back half of the season there's another 3-game week in August, with two home games around a trip to Vancouver.  Not as easy as KC and Sandy but it could be a lot worse.  Then after a week off there's another 3-game week finishing on Labor Day weekend, this time all on the road in Philly, Nashville, and DC.  I fully expect (COVID permitting) the Rapids to set up for a week in the Philly/DC area instead of flying back to Denver after all 3 games.  So travel won't be that big of a deal that week.  Then again after another week break it's 3 more games in a week, this time with the first two at home before a trip to LA-LA land to play the Galaxy.  The team gets two full weeks off before the final two games, the aforementioned home finale against Dallas and then a trip to Austin to finish the regular season.

That 3-game East Coast swing before Labor Day is the only time we have more than 2 home or away games in a row.  As you can see by that tight end of the season schedule (9 games in 5 weeks) its going to be important to build up a bit of a buffer in the first 2/3rds of the season while we're more well-rested.  Twice we have long road trips between games, but they're both a week apart.  We go between NY and the Northwest on both of them, first from NYCFC to Portland, then Seattle to RBNY the second time.

Overall the pacing and the travel in this schedule is fairly favorable.  Of course we don't know how much added travel and subtracted rest we might get early in the season with our CCL play.  The real negative on this schedule is getting all the tough Eastern teams and not getting teams like Miami, Chicago, and Cincinnati.

Scheduling!

We got both the full 2022 MLS schedule and our CCL draw today.  Full schedule analysis will be saved for this weekend (hopefully) but two things that stand out is that we have an early Rocky Mountain Cup home match on April 2nd, and the week leading into Labor Day is a 3-game week in Philly, Nashville, and DC, which seems like a doable road trip for people so-inclined (at the very least got to Philly, spend a week seeing Philly and DC, and go to the game in DC).

The CCL draw is a little easier to analyze.  Our first opponent is Comunicaciones FC of Guatemala.  The first leg will be in Guatemala on February 15th-17th with the return leg at the Dick on Feb 22nd-24th.  This is a team we should be able to beat, even coming out of preseason.  Assuming we don't fall flat on our face we'll get the winner of the NYCFC-Santos de Guapiles (Costa Rica), again with the first leg away and the second leg at the Dick.

Should we get through that match and onto the semifinals we'll get the remaining team out of Guastatoya (Guatemala), Montagua (Honduras), the Sounders, and Leon.  Leon would be an intriguing matchup given that's where Yarbrough came to us from, and rolling it all the way back to 1996 that's also where Marcelo Balboa came to us from.  We also faced Leon in the first round of the then CONCACAF Champions Cup in 1998 after being the runner up in MLS Cup '97, being eliminated 403 on aggregate after beating Leon 1-0 in the first leg at Mile High.

This is about as solid a draw as we could hope for if we want to finally make some noise in international play.  Only 1 of the 4 Mexican teams ended up on our side of the bracket, and they're in the upper half while we're in the lower half.  So there are two chances for them to be eliminated before we could even face them.  Of course none of that matters if we don't take care of business, first by beating a team we should beat, and then taking out a team we should also beat, or taking out the defending MLS Cup champs.  Both of these are absolutely possible.

No Rapids Taken In The Expansion Draft

The Rapids escaped being hurt by the expansion draft again this year.

Expansion Draft and Reviewing Predictions

First up, we got the news on who the  Rapids left unprotected in tomorrow's expansion draft.  One thing I didn't realize in making my predictions last week is that Auston Trusty is no longer on a homegrown contract but he still counts as a homegrown for automatic protection in the expansion draft.  So that would allow one more additional protected player, which I would have used on Danny Wilson.

Of the 12 protected players the Rapids and I agreed on 11 of them (Abubakar, Acosta, Barrios, Esteves, Galvan, Kaye, Lewis, Price, Rosenberry, Trusty, and Yarbrough).  The one place we disagreed was that I would have protected Rubio, and the Rapids chose to protect Shinyashiki instead.

Given the rumors out of Chile that Colo-Colo is interested in Rubio I find this an interesting move.  Either the Rapids don't think those rumors amount to anything and are happy to risk losing Rubio's large contract in the draft, or there's a side-deal with Charlotte not to take him.  I can't image risking losing a transfer fee in the expansion draft.

If I had to bet Charlotte takes nobody, but if we do lose somebody its probably going to be Rubio or Irwin.  I say Irwin as I was reminded today that he's a Charlotte native, so the club might want to have a hometown guy on the roster.  We'll know tomorrow.

Secondly, its time for me to face the music.  Back at the beginning of the season (as I do every year) I made a number of predictions, and as I do every year its time to review them to see what I got right and what I didn't.

• Rapids are comfortably in a playoff spot (top 7 make playoffs this year) for most of the season and finish 5th, but they push hard for that 4th spot and a home playoff game

Well that was a miss, but it was a miss in a good way.  And in my defense, I didn't see any serious prediction from anyone that had the Rapids higher than 5th.

• Because of that they surprise the 4th placed team in the playoffs and win on the road, but fall in the next round

Can I take credit for predicting the Rapids would lose in the conference semifinals?  No?  Half a point?  Half a point. 

• The do stumble a bit out of the gate which means they don't qualify for one of the 8 MLS spots in the USOC

N/A as once again, actually the day after I made the prediction, the USOC was cancelled

• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup again, despite 2 of 3 being played in Utah

No #$#%#! comment

• Rubio wins the team Golden Boot with double-digit goals

Rubio didn't win it, and the winner didn't have double-digit goals.  Clear miss.

• Namli is the team MVP (yes, same prediction as last year)

Ah....no.   (It was Price)

• Vines repeats as defensive player of the year

I think if he had stayed all season this would have been accurate, given that Vines + Trusty at LB might have been our DotY.  But a miss.

• One but only one American starter is sold in the summer window (extra credit prediction, its Bassett)

Nailed it, but missed the extra credit

• The Rapids add an international player in the summer window, but not a major blockbuster player on paper

Hello Lucas Esteves

• Mayaka will not be in the Rookie of the Year conversation despite being picked as the consensus #1 before the draft

Well I nailed that one, though I expected more than we got out of him (which was nothing at the first team level)

• The other 6 playoff teams in the West will be LAFC, Seattle, Portland, SKC, Minnesota, and San Jose

4 out of 6 (5 out of 7 when you include the Rapids)?  I'm going to call that good enough to give me a point.

• Acosta and Vines get National Team callups during the season, Lewis and Trusty do not.  I'm pushing on Bassett getting a callup or not

Ok, Lewis did get 1 appearance at the Gold Cup but otherwise I got these right.  Counting it. 

So that's a generous 5.5 points out of 11.  A severe regression from my 8 of 11 in 2020.  Not a good year for me, but a great year for the Rapids.

For the rest of this week we can expect news on the expansion, waiver, and re-entry drafts, and the schedule and CCL draw on Wednesday.  I have a busy week of family obligations with the holidays though, so don't be surprised if you don't see a lot about those  right away.  I'll try to get any news up quickly (like if we lose/add anyone in the drafts, or our CCL opponent) but analysis of the moves or the schedule may not come until this weekend sometime.

Condolences to Kort Ford and everyone that knew Laurie

 

Laurie Ford, Kortne Ford's mother, passed away this morning.  Laurie fought cancer for almost 5 years, multiple times getting diagnoses of only have 3-6 months left and fighting through them.  As Kort revealed after the regular season ended they determined that she had fought long enough and she was being made as comfortable as they could for the time she had left.  Kort and Laurie will always be part of our Rapids family and I think I can safely speak for the Rapids fanbase when I say our condolences go out to Kort and everyone who knew Laurie.. 

Expansion draft coming

In 2022 we add Charlotte FC to the league, which means yet another expansion draft is coming.  The draft will be next Tuesday, December 14th.  The rules this time around are that Charlotte gets 5 picks, they can't pick more than one player from a team, and the teams that lost players to Austin last year are exempt from the draft this year.

The Rapids can protect 12 players, plus every homegrown player under 25 or under and ever y Generation Adidas player.  The roster is everyone on the team at the end of the season, regardless of contract status.  However players out of contract (in the Rapids case, Badji, Beitashour, and Moor) hold no real benefit to Charlotte in picking them as they are still free to sign anywhere they want.  Players who's options were declined however are valuable because Charlotte can pick them, but I believe they have to pick up their option year to do it.

In last year's expansion draft Beitashour, Mezquida, Moor, Rawls, and Warner were left unprotected.

Automatically protect on the Rapids roster are: Seb Anderson, Cole Bassett, Michael Edwards, Kortne Ford, Matt Hundley, Ollie Larraz, Phillip Mayaka (Generation Adidas), Abe Rodriguez, Yaya Toure, Will Vint, and Darren Yapi.

The notable name not on that list is Kellyn Acosta, who is now too old to be automatically protected as a homegrown player.

Given that, here's my prediction/suggestion on who will be protected by the Rapids:

Lalas Abubakar, Kellyn Acosta, Michael Barrios, Lucas Esteves, Brain Galvan, Mark-Anthony Kaye, Jonathan Lewis, Jack Price, Keegan Rosenberry, Diego Rubio, Auston Trusty, and William Yarbrough.

But the expansion draft is as much about who you leave unprotected and why as it is who you protect.  I think the above are all obvious choices but I want to explain my reasoning on who I didn't protect:

Badji, Beitashour, & Moor all have the same reasoning.  Charlotte doesn't get anything out of selecting them, unless they think being left unprotected upsets the player enough to want to turn down any offer from Colorado and sign with Charlotte.  Beitashour and Moor were left unprotected last year and are still negotiating so that's clearly not an issue for them, and I can't see it being an issue for Badji.

Namli & Rawls - We've already said goodbye to them, no need to protect them

Clint Irwin - I think we saw this year he's the solid #2 in net, and you just can't justify protecting your #2 while leaving a more regular player unprotected.  There's an outside chance Charlotte could take him.

Jeremy Kelly - He's got some talent but is just a backup right now.  I can't see him being selected as one of the 5 picks by Charlotte.

Nicolas Mezquida - He's got a high number and is a bench player.  We're not even sure we're going to re-sign him.  He's not worth protecting because his loss wouldn't be that big of an impact.  I don't think Charlotte would be interested in him but it wouldn't be completely surprising.

Andre Shinyashiki - We have 3 forwards and we should protect at least one of them.  With Badji out of contract its either Rubio or Shinyashiki.  Neither one would be irreplaceable if Charlotte selected them, but there are hints of interest in Rubio from Chile.  That possible interest plus Diego being slightly more consistent makes him the choice to protect and Shinyashiki the one to leave exposed.  I wouldn't expect him to get taken though as I think forward is where Charlotte will spend money to bring in players instead of looking at the draft.

Collen Warner - I don't se an aging backup d-mid being somebody Charlotte is going to take.

Danny Wilson - This is the one difficult choice.  It really came down to protecting Rubio or Wilson and again, the interest from Chile made the difference.  I also think an international average MLS CB (at best) is an unlikely target for Charlotte but I won't say I feel confident they won't take a chance on Wilson.  But the reality is we have 13 players who aren't automatically protected that I wouldn't want to lose and only 12 slots.

2 Rapids 2 Follow in 2022

A big announcement from MLS today that includes the Rapids.  The league is starting MLS Next Pro in 2022.  This will be, essentially, a reserve league and the Rapids will be fielding a team called Rapids 2.  I don't know if that's a placeholder name or not.  19 other MLS teams will also be in the league along with one independent club, Rochester.  Then in 2023 8 of the 9 remaining teams will join.  Montreal is the only team that has not announced plans to join the league.  MLS has said they will also be inviting other independent clubs like Rochester to join the league in future years.

MLS is aiming this league to be roughly equivalent in quality to USL League One, a step below the USL Championship where the Switchbacks play.  USL League One is where Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC out of Greely is playing starting next season.  This is designed to serve as a bridge between Academy and MLS play.

For 2022 the Rapids 2 will be in the Western Conference of the league along with most of its current Western Conference brethren.  Austin, Nashville, and both LA clubs won't join until 2023 however.  St. Louis, who will join MLS in 2023 will have a MLS Next Pro team in the West in 2022.

The Rapids 2 team will be made up of Academy kids on amateur contracts, first team players getting playing time with Rapids 2, and players signed specifically for the Rapids 2 squad.  Expect most of the players we've sent on loan over the last couple years to be the type of players we now see playing for Rapids 2.  As part of their announcement the Rapids included that their official partnership with the Colorado Springs Switchbacks has been concluded.  That's a logical step to take given the new team, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the occasional loan to the Springs given the higher level of play there.

As part of this Brian Crookham has stepped down as GM of the Switchbacks and has been named GM of Rapids 2.  That fits in well with his on-going role as Senior Director of Soccer Development with the Rapids.

I'll be expanding the coverage on the blog to include as much Rapids 2 news as I can.  It will be very interesting to see how the Rapids grow to include a second team like this.

Callups and Roster Announcements

As expected the Rapids released their roster moves today, but before we get to those one other piece of news.  The roster for the Dec. 18th U.S. friendly against Bosnia-Herzegovina was announced to today and Colorado had 3 players on the roster, most of any team.  As expected Kellyn Acosta will be in camp, but so will Cole Bassett and Auston Trusty.  Both of them have been in camp in the past but have not yet been capped for the full national team.

Now, on to the roster news.  As expected Colorado picked up the options for Kellyn Acosta and Mark-Anthony Kaye, and they also picked up Andre Shinyashiki's option.  They declined the options on Kortne Ford, Jeremy Kelly, Nicolas Mezquida, Younes Namli, Andre Rawls and Will Vint.

I think the only real surprise in that group is not picking up Ford's option.  He might have a big escalation clause, or they might want to work out a longer-term deal with him now rather than wait until the end of his contract.

They included in the announcement that they are in negotiations to bring back Ford, Kelly, and Mezquida, as well as out of contract players Dominique Badji, Steven Beitashour, and Drew Moor.

This means they are saying goodbye to Namli, Rawls, and Vint.  As I predicted yesterday, none of those are surprising.  They didn't feel like they had a future here.

Out of the six players the club is still negotiating with all but Kelly are eligible for free agency and could decide to go elsewhere.  I'd be very surprised if Ford and Moor sign anywhere else (especially Moor).  I half-expect Beitashour to retire but if he doesn't I could see him deciding not to come back to Colorado if he has a chance to go back to San Jose, considering that's his hometown and he spent more time there than anywhere else in his career.  I really hope Badji is happy here and wants to come back.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Mezquida try to see if he could get a better deal elsewhere.  Kelly could decide to sstay, or try to find playing time by dropping into the USL.

The priorities for the Rapids should be to re-sign Badji, Ford, and Moor.  They're the most likely to contribute in 2022 out of that group.

Post-Season Roster Analysis

Today the Rapids announced that they've signed Michael Barrios to a contract extension for next season, with a team option for 2023.  An obvious move that needed to get done sooner rather than later.

That news, along with the knowledge that Colorado's roster decisions were due yesterday, and will likely be announced late tomorrow, means that this is the time to go through my opinion of the players we should keep and the ones we should move on from.

Normally this is a long post going player by player and ending up wanting to replace a significant number.  This season, thanks to the solid roster construction by Padraig Smith and Robin Fraser, the post is going to be much shorter.  First, there's a core group that should obviously be kept.  That group is:

GK; William Yarbrough, Abe Rodriguez

D: Lalas Abubakar, Seb Anderson, Michael Edwards, Kortne Ford, Keegan Rosenberry, Danny Wilson

M: Kellyn Acosta, Braian Galvan, Mark-Anthony Kaye, Oliver Larraz, Jonathan Lewis, Philip Mayaka, Jack Price, Darren Yapi

F: Michael Barrios, Matt Hundley, Yaya Toure

These are either obviously core members of our team, homegrowns, or young players that we should continue to develop.  Some of them, like Acosta and Ford, are in option years and should have their options picked up.

There are two names missing from the list, and its because I wouldn't be shocked to see them sold to Europe.  Cole Bassett is almost certainly gone after declining a transfer this season.  The other that I wouldn't be surprised to be sold is Auston Trusty.  If they aren't sold they, obviously, should be kept.

After that group there are 5 players that are free agents, either directly or if we don't pick up their option:

Andre Rawls is in an option year.  I would probably let him go because I don't see a real future with the team, but if the club likes having him in USL as an emergency keeper I don't see a problem with that.

Steven Beitashour is out of contract.  I wouldn't be shocked if he retires.  If he doesn't I don't know that there's a good reason to re-sign him, but if we do, again, no big deal.

Dominique Badji is out of contract.  Even though it would cost us 50K in GAM to Nashville, I'd re-sign him assuming we could get him ad a workable number.  He's obviously improved from his first stint in Colorado and is a nice option off the bench.

Drew Moor is out of contract.  I can't see him signing anywhere else, so the only question is if he wants to play another year.  Personally if he's willing to take $150K-$200K to be a locker room presence and to close out the last 10 minutes of games I'm happy to give him a contract every year until he's 50.  He's the only name missing from the Rapids Gallery of Honor (because he hasn't retired yet) and is a club legend.  It doesn't hurt at all to keep him on the roster if he wants it.

Nicolas Mezquida is the last player that would be a free agent if we don't pick up his option.  This one I just don't know about.  $300K is a lot of money for a backup midfielder.  I don't see the value on the field.  That said, he's apparently one of the best locker room presences on the team, and is  willing to do whatever is necessary to help the club.  If those intangibles are important enough to Smith and Fraser then I could see picking up his option but I think its a real stretch.

We also have two players on loan, with very different results:

Lucas Esteves - We should continue his loan with a plan to buy him when it ends if he continues on his current trajectory.

Younes Namli - his loan is up at the end of the season, and we should let him go.  He doesn't fit what this team has turned into.  He clearly has talent and had we gone towards a system that could utilize a #10 and/or ended up with fewer quality outside players he might be worth pursuing.  But right now the money spent on him doesn't match the upgrade in his position on the field.  We'd be better off spending that money on a true striker.

That leaves us a group of players who may or may not be out of contract but aren't members of the core group:

GK - Clint Irwin - I know there's a thought that having two #1's pushes them to be better, but I think Yarbrough is pulling away from Irwin  At this point I think a younger understudy is a better #2 option.  If we get a chance to move Irwin we should.

D - Jeremy Kelly - I like his utility, he's currently at a low number, he's a good low-risk investment to keep him in 2022.

M - Will Vint - Your guess is as good as mine on what's going on with Vint.  I assume whatever it is will drive the decision to keep him or not.

M - Collen Warner - He's a good backup.  Hard to to better at $80K.

F - Diego Rubio - Rubio is not the answer as a starting #9 for this team.  However he does have quality and there was rumored interest from Chile.  If we can find a way to trade him in the league or sell him we should.  He's under contract through the 2023 season with a club option for 2024 so he's not going anywhere otherwise, but we shouldn't rely on him as a starter.

F - Andre Shinyashiki - The former Rookie of the Year seems to have stalled in his development.  He probably needs to play regularly, but that's not going to happen here.  He's probably too good for a USL loan.  He was on a team option in 2021.  If we can get him back at around his current number ($130K) as a backup, its probably worth it.  But if we lose him in the expansion draft or we can deal him in a trade it wouldn't be a significant loss.

That's it, that's all 34 players currently on the roster.  Next up we'll talk expansion draft (probably next week as I expect to have the roster news over the weekend).