One Move Made, One Move (At Least) Left

By tomorrow at 6pm MT the Rapids have to be roster compliant.  That means they need to figure out how to fix 8 internationals into 6 international slots.  Today came word of the first of those moves in the news that Sam Nicholson received his green card.  That means we have 7 internationals to fit into 6 international slots, which means one more move is coming tomorrow.

There's Twitter chatter that there will be a press release tomorrow about the move and that it does not involved trading for an additional international slot.  For now lets assume the chatter is accurate.  What options does that leave?

1. Somebody else gets a green card - unlikely, there was no press release for Nicholson so why would there be one tomorrow?  Unless is was a release for both of them, but the Rapids haven't done press releases for green cards in the past.
2. We trade an international to another MLS team - also unlikely, there's been no rumors of that and of the internationals we're likely to be willing to give up (Blomberg, Gashi, Wilson) there's not a lot of value.
3. We sell an international to a team outside of MLS - equally unlikely, same issues with player value and with a number of windows closed for other leagues there aren't a lot of options.
4. We loan an international to a team - possible, though most likely to MLS or USL since the transfer window applies to loans as well.  If we were to go this route I would expect it would be a short-term loan while we wait for an additional green card to process.  Somthing like Shinyashiki to the Springs.
5. We buy out an international's contract an release them - this is the most likely move I believe.  It solves the problem for the whole season, it clears up cap space, and there are a couple of internationals that are unlikely to feature much this season.

So assuming the final option is the one they go with, who is it going to be?  We can rule out Mezquida, Price, Shinyashiki, and Smith as they are all core pieces to the 2019 plan.  That leaves Blomberg, Gashi, and Wilson.  I doubt its Gashi, if you're going to make that big of a move you make it at the beginning of the offseason so you can use that cap space.  So really it comes down to two:

• Blomberg - On ~$250K salary that would have to be bought out but will be out of contract next season
• Wilson - On ~$550K salary that goes through 2020 (2021 is a team option year) and both years would have to be bought out

I think the key to this decision is the rule that the first buyout of the offseason is "free" in that it doesn't hit the cap.  Any other buyout in an offseason or any in-season buyout hits the cap, as we saw with Aigner last season.  So the Rapids could cheaply buy out Blomberg and free up a little cap space, or bite off a bigger chunk with Wilson and free up space both this year and next with no penalty.  This would also allow them to buy out Blomberg in the middle of the season if necessary with a minimal cap hit (whatever is left of his 2019 contract).

I think tomorrow they'll announce they bought out Danny Wilson's contract to get to roster compliance.

Game By Game Prediction

I'm going to try something new this year and go out on a limb and predict each game before the season starts.  Not score or goal-scorers but result.  Obviously the further we get away from the first game on Saturday the less sure I get of my predictions, as injuries, summer transfer window moves, team morale, etc. can have a big influence on how a season plays out.  Still, lets see where we end up.

Game 1 - Portland - Draw - 1 pt
Game 2 - @Seattle - Loss
Game 3 - Kansas City - Draw - 2 pts
Game 4 - @Dallas - Win - 5 pts
Game 5 - Houston - Win - 8 pts
Game 6 - @Orlando - Draw - 9 pts
Game 7 - Seattle - Draw - 10 pts
Game 8 - DC - Draw - 11 pts
Game 9 - @Chicago - Draw - 12 pts
Game 10 - @Atlanta - Loss
Game 11 - Vancouver - Win - 15 pts
Game 12 - FSL - Win - 18 pts
Game 13 - @LAG - Loss
Game 14 - Columbus - Win - 21 pts
Game 15 - @Philadelphia - Loss
Game 16 - Cincinnati - Win - 24 pts
Game 17 - Minnesota - Win - 27 pts
Game 18 - @Vancouver - Draw - 28 pts
Game 19 - LAFC - Loss
Game 20 - New England - Win - 30 pts
Game 21 - @Portland - Loss
Game 22 - NYCFC - Loss
Game 23 - @San Jose - Draw - 32 pts
Game 24 - Montreal - Win - 35 pts
Game 25 - San Jose - Win - 38 pts
Game 26 - @Minnesota - Loss
Game 27 - @Houston - Loss
Game 28 - @FSL - Draw - 39 pts (and a Rocky Mountain Cup)
Game 29 - @RBNY - Loss
Game 30 - LAG - Draw - 40 pts
Game 31 - @Toronto - Loss
Game 32 - @Kansas City - Loss
Game 33 - Dallas - Win - 43 pts
Game 34 - @LAFC - Loss

11-10-13 for 43 points.  That would put us right on the average for a 7th placed team in a 34 game season, so on the cusp of the playoffs.  That seems like a reasonable prediction for the season.  Its going to be an ugly ending though, other than the FSL and Dallas games I don't see any "easy" games in the last couple of months, most of which is on the road.  If we don't rack up the points early, particularly between games 4 and 9, the season could go south quickly.  If we aren't at least at 10 points after 10 games I don't see us making the playoffs without a major, and unlikely, midseason move.

Rapids Sign Opare & Final Preseason Result

The long rumored signing of Kofi Opare was made official today as he signed a one year deal with the team  His addition gives us needed depth as center back as Ford and Smith both look likely to be unavailable this weekend.  It also gives us 27 signed players with only draftee Jacob Hauser-Ramsey left in camp unsigned (other than the Academy players).  If he's going to be signed I'm guessing we'll hear in the next couple of days.

Beyond that we should expect a couple of more roster moves this week seeing that we're at 8 internationals against 6 international slots.  We're going to need to move some players, trade for some slots, or get some green cards to make our roster compliant by the end of the week.  If I had to bet I expect a green card will come through soon and I wouldn't be shocked if we buy an international out of a contract by the end of the week.

Also this weekend the Rapids played their last preseason game, against the Galaxy.  They easily handled the Galaxy 3-1, with a goal by Kamara and two by Rubio (Zlatan got LA's goal).  The starting lineup was:

Kamara - Rubio

Feilhaber

Mezquida - Acosta

Bassett

Serna - Wynne - Sjoberg - Rosenbery

Howard

Expected starters Vines, Smith, and Ford were out due to injury.  No word as to why Price didn't play.  Blomberg, Shinyashiki, and Nicolson came on as subs.  I would expect a similar lineup on Saturday against Portland, with Price playing in Bassett's place.

The next morning the reserves played LA and got the reverse score with the Rapids goal scored by Nikki Jackson.  Irwin and Vines, both expected to miss these games, started.  Vines went 50 minutes before being replaced by Hauser-Ramsey and Irwin played the whole game.  Wilson, Blomberg, Boateng, Hundley, Jackson, and Shinyashiki were the other signed players to get time (all went 90).

Gashi, Opare, Price, and Rawls were the only signed players not listed as injured who got no playing time between the games.  Rawls as the third keeper is no surprise but I'm not sure what that means about the other three.  Opare was just signed so obviously the lack of playing time wasn't hurting him, but I'm not sure why Price and Gashi got no time.

Acosta, Rosenberry, and Rubio Signed To Long-Term Deals

So I had two of the three right in my prediction, but it was Rubio instead of Ford that got the contract extension.  Big news to tie up three of our big young players to long-term deals.  The exact details:

Kellyn Acosta - 2019-2021 guaranteed, 2022 and 2023 on team option deals
Keegan Rosenberry - 2019-2022 guaranteed
Diego Rubio - 2019-2022 guaranteed

Prior to these signings 2020 was a team option year for Acosta, Rosenberry was out of contract at the end of 2019, and Rubio was on a team option year in 2019 (with an unknown status for 2020).

Some Rapids fans are already questioning why we would sign two players who have yet to play a competitive game in burgundy and blue to long-term deals.  Beyond the concerns over their contract status, where at least one of them if not both could walk away for nothing at the end of the season, these are two young players with great interest within the league and (in Rosenberry's case) interest from the National Team.  Worst case scenario these guys don't fit in and we can pretty easily flip them to another MLS team.  More likely though these three are core members of the Rapids for the next 3 seasons with possibilities to sell them down the line.

Great long-term planning from the Front Office tonight.

Contract Extension Signing Live Tonight At 6

In yesterday's post we talked about the report of Acosta's new deal and the fact that the Rapids had two more players they were trying to sign to long-term extensions.  Well it looks like we'll find out who the other two are tonight as 3 players will sign their contract extensions in a live stream on the team's social media accounts tonight at 6pm, including a Q&A afterwards.  I'll have a summary of the event later tonight but I wanted to get the info out there for anyone who wants to watch.

BTW, my bet for the 3 are Acosta, Ford, and Rosenberry.

Busy News Day In Commerce City

Ok, two big pieces of news out of the Rapids today.  We'll start with the bigger (IMO) of the two announcements.

• Kellyn Acosta signs a new deal at $800K/season, with team options through 2023

This is a big move for the club.  After getting multiple offers for him this offseason they rewarded Acosta with a major salary bump and locked him up long-term.  Also, if they sell him after next season, they won't have to split the fee with Dallas anymore.  Win-win all the way around here.

• Rapids away jersey, the Black Diamond kit, was released

Its a solid kit that is a step up from the flag kits in my opinion, but I never liked the flag kits.  If I had the budget this year I'd consider picking one up, but my soccer budget is going to an upcoming trip to London for a Blackburn game.  It would have been more impressive if three quarters of the league wasn't getting new white kits this season, half of them with the same template as this.  Adidas failed MLS on this cycle of kits.  I did get a chuckle out of the Black Diamond PR push for a kit that has neither black or diamonds on it.

Catching up on some other news from the weekend:

• Sam Raben loaned to the Switchbacks

No surprise here, he went to the Springs to train with the team while the rest of the Rapids went to Colorado.  There's an interesting a note in the press release which says that the team can recall him at any time subject to roster limitations.  I don't remember that caveat in prior years, this might be an indicator that the rule about on-loan players not counting against the roster rules only if there's no recall option has changed.  Now it looks like they no longer count against the roster rules at any time when they're on-loan, but they can't come back if they don't have a valid roster spot to move into.

• Colorado B beats Las Vegas B 3-0, Rapids A draw 2-2 with Vegas A.

I'm spending less time on these games than usual because a number of small injuries caused a number of different roster alignments (Wynne at CB for example) so I'm not sure what can be drawn from these games.

Preseason Friendlies Recap

3 days, 2 games, lots of lineups.  Lets get to it.

Saturday it was the Ventura County Fusion, a USL Division II (formerly known as the PDL) team for two 30-minute halves.  We went with this group for the full 60 minutes:

Howard

Rosenberry - Sjoberg - Smith - Serna

Price

Acosta - Feilhaber

Mezquida

Rubio - Shinyashiki

This group went to town on the lower competition, as you would expect.  Mezquida scored in the first 30 seconds, after 23 minutes the team was up 4-0 with both Mezquida and Rubio having a brace, and in the 51st minute Shinyashiki got on the board to finish the scoring at 5-0.  Good to see the team doing what it should do against a lower-league team, but beyond that there's not much to take from this.

This afternoon the Rapids faced Toronto in a 75 minute game (45 minute first half, 30 minute second).  Things didn't go as well.  Our starting XI:was the same as Saturday

Howard

Rosenberry - Sjoberg - Smith - Serna

Price

Acosta - Feilhaber

Mezquida

Rubio - Shinyashiki

Toronto scored inside the first 10 minutes and the Rapids didn't mount much of an attack in the first half.  At halftime the Rapids made a number of subs:

Howard

Rosenberry - Sjoberg - Anderson (Academy) - Serna

Price

Bassett - Feilhaber

Mezquida

Rubio - Shinyashiki

Blomberg subbed in for Feilhaber later in the half.  This group did better, creating a number of chances, but not scoring.  Toronto got a second before the end of the game.

No need to panic yet, but 3 games in and our offense has only shown up against the lower-league side.  It would be good to get some goals when we play the Galaxy.

One thing I think we can take from the first 3 games is that we have a really good idea who the starting XI will be on March 2nd, assuming everyone is healthy.  The starting lineup in these games is pretty much it, except that Kamara will clearly start over Shinyashiki and I'm almost certain Ford will start over Sjoberg.  The only unsettled spot I think is left back.  Vines has been injured and if I had to bet money on the starter I'd put it on him, but the fact that Serna is getting time there over Wynne is interesting.  It could mean that they've settled on Wynne as the starter already, or it could be that Wynne may not get much time at all this season.  That's the one battle that bears more examination.

RIP Fernando Clavijo

We'll get to the recap of this weekend's friendly tomorrow, but more important news happened Friday.  Fernando Clavijo, former Rapids manager, former National team player, Hall of Famer, and general all-around all U.S. (and Haiti) soccer guy lost his battle with cancer.  My condolences go out to his friends, family, and anyone who knew him.  He was particularly close with another member of our Rapids family, Marcelo Balboa.

Balboa is a key part of probably my favorite Clavijo memory, their hall of fame induction game.  In August of 2005 Balboa, Clavijo (then head coach of the Rapids), John Harkes (working for DC), and Tab Ramos were added to the Hall of Fame and to celebrate Colorado and DC played a friendly at the HoF.  Balboa and Clavijo suited up for the Rapids while Harkes and Ramos suited up for United.  At some point in the game the Rapids got a PK and Balboa stepped up to take it, but they played the old trick of the kicker timing his kick to push the ball forward just as another player, in this case Clavijo, raced into the box to shoot on goal.  I can't even remember if the shot went in or not, I just remember everyone on the filed having a good laugh over it.

I actually started this blog back as a time when I needed to vent about the Rapids, which was at the time Clavijo was in charge.  I may have disagreed with him often, but I  never doubted his passion for the game and his team.  He may have moved to one of our rivals and stolen our coach, but he will be missed.

Weekly Camp Update

It seems that in this no-drama preseason all we're going to be hearing out of the Rapids is weekly updates and game reports.  Doesn't leave much for a blogger to write about. :D  Anyway, this week's report is out and a few players have been released from camp.  Draftees Marcelo Borges and Robbie Mertz were not asked to continue with the team to California and we'll have to find their next career step elsewhere.  Also former Academy player Enoch Mushagalusa was told that he wouldn't be joining the team.   Along with that Academy player Oliver Larraz who trained with the team in Florida is not part of the travelling group to California.  Lastly Switchbacks player Jordan Schweitzer has returned to the Springs.

That leaves Academy players Abe Rodriguez (GK) and Sebastian Anderson (D) travelling with the team to Chula Vista along with invitee Kofi Opara (D) and draftee Jacob Hauser-Ramsey (D).  I think its safe to say that with Howard, Irwin, and Rawls already signed Rodriguez is there as a 4th goalkeeper in training and to get experience, not to try to land a contract for 2019.  The same is probably true for Anderson but getting time as a high school junior will help him if/when he earns a homegrown contract.

So its down to Opara and Hauser-Ramsey competing for roster spots.  With 26 signed players we have room for both of them, but if I had to bet its a two way competition for one spot.  Going seven deep at CB seems unlikely.

Also in this update is an injury report.  Everyone is currently in camp in Chula Vista except for Sam Raben, who is training with the Switchbacks.  I think we can assume he'll be spending 2019 on loan in Colorado Springs.  Sam Vines has picked up a quad strain that will limit his activity for another week or so.  Otherwise Ford, Kamara, and Nicholson are all still on their timetables to be fully back by the start of the season, which is good to see.  Their fitness levels at that point may necessitate them not being ready to start but they would be available off the bench at least.

Below is the updated camp roster:

Goalkeepers:

Tim Howard - Designated Player

Clint Irwin

Andre Rawls

Defenders:

Kortne Ford - Homegrown Player

Sam Raben - Homegrown Player (Training with Colorado Springs)

Keegan Rosenberry

Axel Sjoberg

Tommy Smith - International

Sam Vines - Homegrown Player

Danny Wilson - International

Deklan Wynne

Midfielders:

Kellyn Acosta

Nana Boateng

Cole Bassett - Homegrown Player

Johan Blomberg - International

Benny Feilhaber

Shkelzen Gashi - Designated Player, International

Nicolas Mezquida - International

Sam Nicholson - International

Jack Price - International

Dillon Serna - Homegrown Player

Forwards:

Matt Hundley - Homegrown Player

Niki Jackson

Kei Kamara

Diego Rubio

Andre Shinyashiki

Trialists:

Abe Rodriguez - Goalkeeper (Academy)
Sebastian Anderson - Defender (Academy)
Jacob Hauser-Ramsey - Defender

Kofi Opare - Defender

First Preseason Game

Colorado played its first preseason game down in Bradenton yesterday, against the expansion Cincinnati FC.  There were minimal reports on Twitter from the team but we do know the basic details.

The starting XI

Shinyashiki - Rubio

Mezquida

Feilhaber - Acosta

Price

Serna - Smith - Sjoberg - Anderson (Academy)

Howard

So minus our injured or unavailable players (Vines, Ford, Rosenberry, Kamara) that's our expected starting XI on March 2nd.

In the 32th minute Bassett replaced Fielhaber.  No reason was given for the switch.

The teams ended the half scoreless, a almost full second team was sent out for the second half:

Jackson - Hundley

Gashi

Bassett - Blomberg

Schweitzer (Trialist)

Serna - Wilson - Raben (Draftee) - Borges (Draftee)

Rawls

That team gave up a goal on a corner in the 59th minute.  A header from a set piece, no surprise it came after we subbed out our taller defenders.

The game ended 1-0, the Rapids returned to Colorado for a couple of days before heading out to Southern California for the rest of preseason.

That will be the last game time we see from Bassett for a little while as he and Academy player Armando Munoz have been called up to the U.S. U-18 roster for the camp in California this week.