Everything Is Legal In New Jersey

The Rapids will need to do anything they can facing the Red Bulls shorthanded in New Jersey tomorrow night, so lets hope everything is actually legal.  With two players injured and 3 starters suspended it could be a rough night for the burgundy boys.  Robin Fraser's first game in charge is against the team he helped coach to a Supporters Shield so there's probably a bit more in this matchup than usual.  Kickoff is at 5pm tomorrow and the game is on Altitude, for those of us who still get it with their current carriage dispute.

Injury Report:
OUT: D Kortne Ford; D Deklan Wynne

Disciplinary Report:
SUSPENDED: D Lala Abubakar (yellow card accumulation); M Kellyn Acosta (yellow card accumulation); F Kei Kamara (red card vs. FSL)
ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: D Danny Wilson

Yeah, that's ugly.  After this game Kamara, Rubio, Anderson, Bassett, and Rwatubyaye all leave for various national team callups so its not going to get better for a few games.  Get used to seeing like likes of Wilson and Sjoberg for a while.

This is a really hard lineup to predict.  Not only are we missing 5 players but we have a new coach.  Who knows if the formation will even stay the same, much less who Fraser might want to start.  I went in assuming we want to put our best XI out in the formation we've been using all season and I think this is it, but I expect my prediction to be wrong.

Prediction: 3-1 loss, goal by Shinyashiki.  RBNY has a great offense and a middle of the road defense.  Our defense isn't great when its at full strength, its going to be worse tomorrow.  This game is never really in doubt and while the Rapids keep it looking good for a while the Red Bulls will eventually run away from us.

Welcome Back Robin Fraser!

Well after yesterday's sad news, on to something better.  The news was announced on Sunday but yesterday the Rapids officially introduced Robin Fraser as the club's new manager.  Fraser joins the team immediately and will be in charge for the final seven matches of 2019.  Robin has many ties to Colorado, having played here first for the Foxes and then the Rapids.  His daughters still live here and he sounded very happy to be back in a place that holds so much importance to him.

I've long advocated for Fraser as the manager, going back to before Pablo was hired and again before Hudson was hired.  If we're budget-limited on the manager (and given our recent manager choices, it seems that we are) it's hard to do much better than him.  He's got a long history in MLS, he has experience with being the head coach with Chivas USA, and he was an assistant with successful squads in Toronto and with the New York Red Bulls.  That's a better resume IMO than a Josh Wolff or a Tab Ramos.  About the only other person who wasn't already a head coach that would compete with that was Wilmer Cabrera when he was unemployed for a week earlier this month after being fired by Houston, but Montreal jumped at the chance to hire him (and according to rumors we had already settled on Fraser by that point).

I hear a lot of fans talking about his lack of success at Chivas, which is fair, his record is not good.  That said, Chivas was a joke of an organization by the time he was in charge.  His leading scorer in his two years in charge was Juan Pablo Angel, with 19 goals.  His second leading scorer, with one goal less than Angel?  Nick LaBrocca.  Yes, that Nick LaBrocca.  There was little talent and little interest from the FO in changing that, unless in involved getting players from the parent Chivas playing time.  Combined with a FO in so much chaos it actually got into legal trouble over employment practices I'm not sure you can take much from his record.  The important thing is that he knows what it means to run a club day in and day out, which is something no Rapids manager could say when they came to Colorado since Fernando Clavijo.

Now don't get me wrong.  This is still a bit of a risk by the Rapids.  And by the Rapids I really mean KSE.  I think its obvious that KSE has handcuffed Padraig Smith with how much money he can spend on a manager.  Given that, I think Smith made a great choice, but I would have loved the budget to be expanded so Smith could have gone after a real top manager.  A great choice would have been former Rapids Aitor Karanka, who has been an assistant with Real Madrid and the Spanish National Team, and was the manager at Middlesbrough and Nottingham Forest.  But somebody with that resume is going to cost a lot more than Fraser costs and was probably not in our budget.

The one bit of sad news in all of this is that Rapids legend Conor Casey is leaving the organization.  He was offered the jobs of either lead assistant for Fraser or the manager job for the Switchbacks in the Springs and turned them both down.  I have to assume he thinks he can do better than a top MLS assistant/USL manager role, but I think that's optimistic.  Some fans (and maybe Casey himself) thing Conor should have gotten the full time job and the Rapids "screwed" him by not giving it to him, but the evidence doesn't back that up.

Casey has the team playing at 1.39 pts/game since he took over.  That's likely not good enough to make the playoffs had he had them at that rate for a full season and it would have only made the playoffs in 3 of the last 9 seasons (in most of the other 6 seasons it would have made the playoffs had there been 7 playoff teams from each conference like there will be this year).  He also had an embarrassing loss to the USL New Mexico United in the Open Cup.  He did that while having a fairly favorable schedule, with 10 of 18 games at home (plus the USOC game) and some weak teams in that time like Montreal, Columbus,  Cincinnati, and Vancouver.  With 4 of the remaining 7 on the road and 6 of the 7 against teams currently in a playoff spot the odds of him keeping up that borderline 1.39 playoff pace was unlikely.  Its hard to claim Casey made a strong play for the job given those results.

The rest of this year is a wash, especially after yet another debacle in Utah last weekend, so this will be a good time for Fraser to get a feel for what he has on the roster and what he'll be looking for in the offseason.  An offseason where only a third of the salary is on guaranteed contracts for 2020 and all the DP slots will be open, so there will be plenty of flexibility to build the roster as he sees fit.  I'm kind of excited to see what he does.

Family Losses

Well, I'm back.  Lots of Rapids news to cover but we have to start with the most important news,  While I was gone dealing with personal losses in my family, our Rapids family lost two of their own as well.

On Thursday news broke that former Rapids striker and Ghanaian international Junior Agogo had passed away.  While no cause of death has been announced the assumption is that its related to the stroke he had a few years ago.  About 18 months ago Centennial 38, with an contribution from the Rapids, sent Junior a care package after hearing about his stroke and the fact that he hadn't heard from many teammates since then.  Agogo only played for the Rapids for a year and a half but made a large impact with his personality and friendliness and quickly became a fan favorite.  He was certainly one of my favorites, with Agogogoal! being one of my favorite shouts after he scored.

Then this morning we got new that midfielder Colin Clark had passed away over night from a heart attack.  Clark was a homegrown player before that was a thing in this league, growing up in Fort Collins and playing for various Rapids youth teams including the Boulder Rapid Reserves before becoming a regular starter for the Rapids.  He was with the team during the transition from the black & blue Invesco Field days to our burgundy home at Dick's Sporting Goods park.  His career was derailed by a couple of serious injuries but after retirement he went into coaching and was involved with the Colorado Rush organization.

Both Rapids alumni will be missed and my thoughts go out to their family and friends.  Combined with the loss of Fernando Clavijo in February this year has sucked.

Brief Hiatus

Due to a death in the family my posting will go quiet for a couple of weeks (if anyone is still reading this anyway).  I will predict that if we get through tomorrow's game without Abubakar or Kamara picking up a yellow and being on yellow card suspension in SLC that we win that game 2-0 and bring home the Rocky Mountain Cup.

Rapids Go To American Home Of Scandinavia, Johan Goes To Scandinavia

A bit of roster news today before our game preview.  Johan Blomberg was loaned to GIF Sundsvall in Sweden for the rest of the season, which will see out his contract.  Safe to say he won't be offered an new one from the Rapids.  Blomberg never found his place here, and this season the youth movement ate up any real playing time he's have in midfield.

So while he heads back to Scandinavia the Rapids head to Minnesota, which has one of the largest Scandinavian communities in the U.S.  This will be Colorado's first look at Allianz Field, United's new home after playing at the University of Minnesota while it was being built.  Game time tomorrow is 6pm and Fleming will have a guest color commentator for this one as Alan Gordon steps in for Marcelo Balboa.

Injury Report:
OUT: D Kortne Ford; D Deklan Wynne
QUESTIONABLE: GK Tim Howard

Disciplinary Report:
SUSPENDED: M Jack Price (yellow card accumulation)
ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar; D Danny Wilson; F Kei Kamara

There's been no updated injury report so I'm just going with the same one from Saturday.  I really don't want Abubakar or Kamara to pick up a yellow in Houston and be suspended for the Rocky Mountain Cup so they need to either get it out of their system tomorrow or save it for SLC.

Really, a midweek game on the road with another road game on Saturday means anything could happen.  I wouldn't be shocked to see a very B lineup rolled out there with a lot of normal starters rested for a potentially more winnable game in Houston on Saturday.  I'm going with the idea though that we're going to just deal with the game in front of us and worry about Saturday after the fact.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Lewis.  If this were a game on full rest we could see 5+ goals in the match with two of the better offenses in the league but on short rest I expect a more "normal" score.  Minnesota is better than us though and I think they get the 3 points.

This Team Fears No One At Home

Another good performance by the Rapids at home on Saturday night.  After being taken apart by San Jose two weeks ago the team we saw this weekend was much better prepared and ready to face the Earthquakes.  That said, they were outplayed for stretches of the game, but they did enough to get the win without making it look like they were stealing the 3 points.

Random Musings:

• Odd start to the game, after the opening kick I'm not sure the ref blew his whistle for at least 20 minutes.  no goal kicks, no corner kicks, no fouls.  I'm not sure I've ever seen that at the pro level.
• We were lucky not to give a way a PK in the first 5 minutes.  The ref was pretty lenient most of the night, which balanced out between the teams.
• I'm not sure how Acosta's shot made it into the goal, its the type of shot that usually goes off target or the keeper easily saves.  A well placed ball indeed.
• Maybe the Rapids just knew SJ's keeper was weak to his right as both goals got by him on that side.
• Colorado was both unlucky to concede and lucky to only concede one.  SJ's one goal was off a bad deflection but the Earthquakes hit the post twice.
• Kamara hit the same post.  Maybe that post should have been MOTM, 3 big saves!
• Casey has won 7 of his 15 games now, and if you discount the one where he took over midweek that's essentially a 50% win record which is very good for a Rapids manager.
• The Rapids have also gone a single-season record 15 games without being shut out and are on pace for their second best offensive season of all-time.
• All that said, the road gets much much harder from here.  Of our 10 remaining games 7 of them are on the road and 8 of them are against teams currently in a playoff position.  We have the hardest remaining schedule left in the league.
• The Bodmer line is at 1.7 pts/game.  Not unreachable but unlikely.  The Bodmer Line is just an average of past seasons though, not a predictor of what the number will be this season.  Realistically its looking to be higher than average so the team would probably have to average more like 2.3 pts/game or so to make the playoffs.  That seems pretty much impossible.

Man of the Match: Diego Rubio.  A few weeks ago I complained that his theatrics on the field were barely worth it if he kept scoring.  Well, he has kept scoring.  He got the winner in this one for his 3rd game in a row with a goal.  I still don't love the attitude on the field but you can't complain about the results right now.

Inoculated City

Didn't we just see these guys?

Lets hope the city is inoculated, one disaster in the Earthquakes is enough.  Yep, San Jose again, just like two weeks ago when they ran all over us in a 3-1 win.  The difference this time is that we're at home, and Kamara isn't injured.  Is that enough to change the result?  It may be.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm so the tailgate starts at 4.  After celebrating his birthday this week Marcelo will have the call alongside Fleming on Altitude for those who can't make it.

Injury Report:

OUT: D Kortne Ford; D Deklan Wynne

QUESTIONABLE: GK Tim Howard

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED: D Seb Anderson

ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: M Jack Price

Yes, Seb is still suspended since he's been with the U-17s the last two Rapids games, so those don't count towards serving his suspension.  My bet is that Tim is only on the bench if he doesn't get the night off completely, no reason to push him at this point of the season.

This seems really easy to predict.  This is the first game of a three game week, so we might see some players rotated out for rest, but I bet we go all in on this one and worry about rest with the later games on the road.

Prediction: 2-2 draw, goals by Kamara and Lewis.  San Jose is still a good team and we're...not.  I think we can reverse some of the damage from the first game by just playing better and having Kamara up front but I don't think we're good enough to actually beat them.  An entertaining high-scoring game ends with a share of the points.

Rapids Make One Non-Player Move Before Deadline

The transfer window closes in 30 minutes and, as expected, the Rapids aren't making any real moves.  They did make one non-player move.  They traded the #1 allocation spot to DC for a total of $300K of GAM by next season plus Dc's #11 spot.  DC immediately used the #1 spot to acquire Ola Kamara (who has made it clear in the past he was not interested in coming to Colorado).

This is a pretty good return for a limited use item.  Since allocation order is only used for a set list of players if the Rapids didn't have their eyes on one of them then they now have $300K to sign somebody this offseason who they do have their eyes on.

Historic Plague Brings Historic Result

If this is what results from the plague being found in Commerce City we should have gotten sick a long time ago.  For the first time ever the Rapids scored 6 goals in a competitive match, Kamara had a hat-trick, and Montreal was not Impactful.  Probably the best game of the year so far (surpassing the LAFC game).

Random Musings:

• The last time the Rapids scored more than 3 goals was the surprise 4-0 beat down in Dallas that broke our team record winless streak in 2015.  The last time we scored 5 was against Seattle in 2013 (a game I did the coin flip at), that was also the last time we scored 4 goals in a half.
• Kamara's hat-trick puts him at 11 goals on the season, the first Rapid to pass 10 since C+C Goal Factory in 2010.  He's 5 short of Casey's single-season record of 16 goals and is currently on pace to tie it.
• Shinyashiki now has 5 goals for the season making a strong run at Rookie of the Year.  I don't think he's the leader but if he finishes with another 3 or so goals he might claim it.
• Montreal made it interesting at the beginning of each half.  First by forcing the own goal for a 1-0 lead, then after the break closing the game from 4-1 to 4-3 and making things a little nervous.
• The Rapids though, responded.  After Montreal got some momentum and pulled close Colorado immediately turned it on to score the 5th and put the game away.  The 6th was just the icing on the cake, Montreal was done when the 5th was scored.
• Credit to Casey for a good game plan.  He saw the size differential between our attackers (mainly Kei) and the small Impact back line and took full advantage.  Set pieces and crosses gave the Rapids the edge.
• Depending on how you classify it the Rapids scored 3-5 goals from free kicks.  The own goal, Rubio's goal, and Shinyashiki's goal were directly from corners.  Kamara's third wasn't directly off a free kick but the build up was a free kick passed between Vines and Price a couple of times before the cross, so it could have been a set play.  And then of course the penalty kick is technically a set piece.
• Needless to say the Rapids easily lead the league on set piece goals now.  Whatever Casey is doing in training is working on that front.
• This game is another example of what this team can do when the best XI are available and they're in their favored formation.  It works, don't change it unless its forced.
• Casey is now at 1.5 pts/game in his tenure.  That's as real solid number that if he can keep it up would be enough to earn him the job full time.  Its been against a favorable schedule though, and the schedule gets very unfavorable very quickly now.  I have my doubts we stay at that level.

Player of the Match:  Jack Price.  Yes Kamara had the hat trick and is the easy choice, but Price had 3 assists and showed how deadly he was on free kicks.  He's now up to 8 assists on the year, the most for a Rapids since Dillon Powers had 9 in 2014.  He's only halfway to Carlos Valderrama's team record of 16 though.

Rapids Season Literally Plague Ridden This Week

I realize this hasn't been the greatest season.  The famine of points under Anthony Hudson.  The freezing temps of the early season.  The multiple lightning delays of the last month.  But having a game impacted by the actual plague?  Really?  If you haven't heard by now tonight's game against Montreal was going to include one of the rescheduled (due to the aforementioned lightning delays) fireworks shows but that has been cancelled after prairie dogs in the area have been found to have the plague, spread by fleas.   The dirt parking lots at the Dick are also closed for the same reason.  Oh, and on top of that KSE is launching its new ticketing system tonight.  Try to get to the stadium at least an hour early just so you're sure you can make it in by kickoff at 7pm.

Injury Report:
OUT: D Kortne Ford; D Deklan Wynne

Discipline Report:
ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION: M Jack Price

Availability Report:
UNAVAILABLE: D Sebastian Anderson - U.S. U-17 Camp

Because Anderson is still with the Nats this game still does not count towards his suspension from his red card.  Otherwise that's about as healthy/available as we've been this season, assuming there's no unreported injuries again this week.

This was an easy prediction this week.  The only real question mark is if Bassett or Shinyashiki starts in front of Rubio, but I doubt it.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Kamara.  Montreal is an ok team and they're decent on the road, but they aren't a team I expect to come in and beat our first side.  We've only won one game in almost two months (LAFC), its time to break this winless streak.