Roster Analysis 2019

As usual I'm going to break down the roster by player and what I think the team should do with each player/position.  Now the rules have changed from when I first started doing this, back then you could cut players in the offseason with no penalty.  Now any contracts extending into next season can't be cut without taking the cap hot (each team is allowed one buyout without penalty).  So I'll try to take that into account.

Keep:
Kellyn Acosta - Obviously.
Sebastian Anderson - U-17 World Cup member and an HG.
Cole Bassett - HG.
Kortne Ford - HG, have to see how he comes back.
Kei Kamara - Duh.
Jonathan Lewis - Again, obvious.
Sam Nicholson - Yet another obvious choice (I'm not used to this).
Jack Price - Player of the Year!
Keegan Rosenberry - One of 6 field players in the league to play every minute.
Diego Rubio - Second highest scorer and rumored interest makes him a strong asset.
Andre Shinyashiki - MLS Rookie of the Year!
Sam Vines - Looks like the LB of the future.

Sign, for the right price:
Lalas Abubakar - Up to $500K of xAM, no problem.  Up to $750K, questionable.  Above that?  Hard to justify.

Upgrade if possible, if not stand pat:
Clint Irwin - We can do better but we don't need to.  If we find somebody better then go for it (Clint was on an option year in 2019 so we should be able to release him if we want) if not then Clint being in goal in 2020 should be fine.
Niki Jackson - I'm not sure there's a future in Colorado with Hundley and Shinyashiki ahead of him as young strikers but there's nothing wrong with him being on the roster either.

Depends on contract:
Nicolas Mezquida - I'm not sure what his contract situation is.  I'm also not sure how he's going to fit in 2020.  A lot depends on where we make big signings.  If we bring in a #10 Mezquida is no more than a backup, but if we go for a striker and winger then he has a role to play.
Tommy Smith - He's on an option year, an option we should not pick up.  However if we could bring him back at like half the price or so, that would still be a solid move.

Young kids - Most of these guys are probably worth keeping but limited playing time makes judgement hard:
Matt Hundley
Sam Raben
Andre Rawls
Abdul Rwatubyaye

Cut:
Kofi Opare - Couldn't help a bad defense, won't have a role on a hopefully better one.
Dillon Serna - Yeah, this hurts, but he needs to go somewhere else and see if he can become a starter either at MLS or USL level.
Axel Sjoberg - Another fan favorite, but clearly has no remaining role here.
Deklan Wynne - See Opare.

Buyout:
Danny Wilson - He's on a large guaranteed contract, that he hasn't justified.  Time to bite the bullet and let him restart somewhere else.

Its a shocking number of players to keep given how the season started.  A real credit to the roster building over the last 12 months, and a real indictment of Hudson's coaching abilities.

Checking My Predictions

Back in March I made 10 predictions for the season.  Well, now its time to face the music and see how I did:

The Rapids finish in 8th place, missing the playoffs by 3 points or less, fans see this as progress but not enough progress and call for heads

I'm taking half credit for nailing the 8th place prediction.  We missed the playoffs by 6, not 3, points, but I wasn't far off.  If somehow Hudson were still in charge we would be calling for his head.

Despite that Hudson does well enough in the FO's eyes to be retained for 2020 but does not get a contract extension

Yeah, total miss on this one.

Kamara is our Golden Boot winner with 13 goals, Rubio is second with 9

I'm counting this one as correct.  Kamara won the golden Boot with 14 goals (missed it by that much) and Rubio was second with 11.

Shinyashiki has a good year but is not in the Rookie of the Year conversation, Kamara's and Rubio's good play doesn't give him enough playing time

Missed on this as well, as we saw today, Shinyashiki was named Rookie of the Year.

Vines has ups and downs but proves that he is the long-term answer at LB, this leaves Serna with nowhere to play and he's released after the season

Nailed it.  I do expect Serna to be released here at the end of the season.

Rosenberry but not Acosta is chosen for the Gold Cup roster, largely due to the numerous options in midfield while there's a lack of options at RB

We did have a Rapid on the Gold Cup squad, but it was Lewis.  Miss.

Feilhaber plays well but is a one year and done contract while Kamara is brought back next year

Counting this one.  Feilhaber did play well, but clearly won't be back next season.

The Rapids bow out early in the USOC, winning at most one game against their USL opponent but falling to any MLS side the might face

Sadly correct on this one.

Colorado reclaims the Rocky Mountain Cup with a win at home and a draw in Sandy

Miss, damn it.

The Rapids sign a young DP during the summer window, not a huge name but someone that excites the fans

Also a miss.

4.5 out of 10.  Not my best year.  But then this was an odd season.

2019 Most Valuable Player

Normally when I choose my MVP I go back through my game reviews and count up the number of Man of the Match awards I gave out to get some kind of indicator of who should be in the running.  This year though I didn't need to do that, and I'm willing to bet that this player wouldn't have shown up with that many MOTM awards.

The 2019 MVP is Jack Price

This was really obvious to me as the season drew to a close.  Price set a MLS record for assists in a season from free kicks with 10, beating out the likes of former free kick specialists like Claudio Lopez and David Beckham.  Now to be fair, some of those guys not only totaled a number of assists but they also scored from dead ball situations, which Price didn't do, but as far as putting a set piece into a dangerous area nobody has ever been as dangerous in MLS as Price was this season.

I was planning to write this column today anyway, but some stats tweeted out by OptaPro reinforces my decision that Price was our most valuable player this year:

That's Jack Price there in the middle just below 30% of team's chances created, better than players like Vela, Barco, and Rooney.  And then this reiterates the value of his free kicks:

That's the Rapids in the upper right, way ahead of the rest of the league.

In a year where we set post-Shootout team records for goals scored a significant part of those records were due to Price.  He did the small things, the quiet things, but the important things.  He was rarely flashy, which is why he didn't win many MOTM awards, but he was consistently the second best Rapid in most games which means over the season he was the best Rapid out there.

Also in unrelated news defender today Sebastian Anderson was named to the squad for the U-17 World Cup in Brazil next month!

That Was That

Well, we all knew it was a long shot.  Even if Vela hadn't gone off on us KC rolled over for Dallas so a win wouldn't have been enough (seriously, the last time I saw a team roll over like KC did Joe Nasco started in goal).  I didn't expect LAFC and Vela to be that invested in the game, I figured one goal to set the record and they'd conserve energy but instead Vela decided to smash the record.

Still this season turned out much better than anyone thought back in May.  I won't call it a successful season, bare minimum for a successful MLS season is making the playoffs, but it showed promise.  As we've know for a while this offseason's moves will be critical as this team might be good enough to make the playoffs its probably not good enough to compete for MLS Cup right now.  Our free kick/counter-attacking success of the last five months is likely not sustainable at the current level and we need some top tier signing to bring the level of talent up to one that can compete.

As we shift into offseason mode we're going to go through our regular end-of-season routine.  I'll review the roster, grade my preseason predictions, pick an MVP, and such over the next week or two, then things will likely go quiet until after MLS Cup.  The offseason will be short, I expect everything to move up by a week or two after the draft in mid January in order for the season to start in late February.  MLS Cup is Nov 10th, the expansion draft is Dec. 11th, then we hit the holiday break but as soon as we get to 2020 things will move quickly.

One Last Time

While I'm crossing my fingers for a miracle, we have to realize this is probably the final appearance for the GOAT of American keepers, Tim Howard.  We can hope he'll teach LAFC how to say goodbye with a shutout.  As a reminder to make the playoffs the Rapids need to beat LAFC tomorrow and have Portland beat San Jose in Portland and Kansas City beat Dallas in Dallas.  If we beat LAFC by 2 or more Portland and San Jose can end in a draw.  Kickoff for all games on Decision Day is scheduled for 2pm MT but ESPN will have a pregame in Portland and the games will be held until that is over, so all games will actually kick off around 2:25MT.  Altitude is still feuding with the providers, but C38 had found...other...ways to see the game and will be gathering at the Celtic for it.

On a sadder note, this might also be Richard Fleming's goodbye as his tweets over the last few weeks have pretty clearly suggested that if Altitude doesn't solve their distribution problem ASAP he'll be heading back to England looking for a new job.

Injury Report:
OUT: D Kortne Ford; D Dillon Serna; D Deklan Wynne

The Rapids actually didn't release an injury report this week, playing things close to the vest.  I assume the three that have been out for a while are still going to be out and the two that were questionable last week started so I'm guessing they're good to go.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it, right?  The only question is Lewis or Shinyashiki on the left side.  I went with Andre but a switch wouldn't surprise me.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Kamara and Rubio.  Also Portland beats San Jose but Dallas beats KC and we finish in 8th place, 3 points out of the the playoff.  While LAFC has " a lot" to play for in Vela setting the goal scoring record and winning the golden boot and the team setting a points record, when push comes to shove late they're going to pull back to protect themselves for the playoffs while the Rapids are backs to the wall.  Especially if, as i predict, Vela gets a goal to set the record and probably win the Golden Boot.  The Rapids will attack until the end and get the win, but KC going into Frisco undermanned is too big a hill to climb and the Rapids playoff chase comes up just short.

FC Dallas + Playoff Implications = Win

I guess we shouldn't be surprised.  When Dallas faces the Rapids with playoffs on the line (or usually, in the playoffs) they choke.  They did it again on Sunday.  An early goal from Jack Price put Dallas in a funk they never got out of.  By early in the second half it appeared Dallas had given up while the Rapids should have won by 4 or 5, not 3.

With the other results on Sunday somehow the Rapids go into Decision Day still alive for a playoff spot, something in (incorrectly) deemed impossible back in May when we lost to Atlanta.  With a win over LAFC next week and losses by San Jose and Dallas the Rapids would be the 7th seed.  They can also get in if they beat LAFC by two and San Jose draws.

Random Musings:

• I like that fake from Price on Rubio's free kick goal.  I wonder if that's new or something they've been saving for the right time all season.
• Also, for as many set piece goals we've scored this season that was the first goal directly from the free kick.
• Kamara should not be taking PKs.  He's now missed 3 of them this season and none of them have been amazing saves by the keeper.  Had he hit all 3 we'd have 2 more points and an easier road to the playoffs.
• That said, he did make up for it by scoring later so its not all bad.
• Good to see Tim go out with a couple of big saves and a shutout.  Its how the GOAT should finish his home career.
• Regardless of how it ends next week this has been a much more enjoyable season than it appeared it was going to be when Hudson was still coaching.  Kudos to Casey, Fraser, and Smith for turning it around.

Man of the Match: Jack Price.  His first goal of the season and an unofficial assist on that free kick goal.  He is our MVP this season and he gets it done quietly every game.