Rapids Season Ends With A Thud

We should have seen this coming.  In the three longer-than-a-week breaks this team took in 2020 they ended up losing the 3 following games by a combined score of 10-1.  So losing this game 3-0 is right in line with how we've done things.  While we didn't look so listless initially as we did in those earlier games it was the same result, once Minnesota withstood our initial flurry in each half we were left looking like we were just happy to be in the playoffs.

I have real concerns with the tactical approach to this game.  Apparently Sam Vines was fighting a hamstring issue all week and the Rapids had to plan for the possibility, and eventual reality, that he'd miss his first start of the season.  The plan was apparently to drag Acosta out of position and place him at left back.  This despite having Deklan Wynne and Jeremy Kelly, both of whom are capable of playing LB (its Wynne's natural position) on the roster and signing Steven Beitashour mid-season specifically to back up Sam Vines!  When asked after the game Fraser said he didn't think it was fair to throw Beitashour in there for his first game time in a playoff game after more than a year off.  Dine, but then why didn't Fraser get Beitashour some playing time during the season if that was a concern?  And that still doesn't explain why Acosta was chosen over Kelly or Wynne.

Not that Acosta was bad or to blame or anything in his efforts at left back.  You'll see at the end of this that I named him the man of the match.  But having Acosta at LB took him away from the area where he was more valuable.  Combined with rather off games from Price and Namli the center of the pitch was wide open to Minnesota and they regularly took advantage of it.  Honestly Minnesota could have had another goal or two given the chances we gave them.

Maybe this game turns out different if in the first 10-15 minutes of each half, when we were really pushing and looked dangerous we scored.  Going up 1-0, or tying the game at 1-1 would have given us confidence and might have kept us in that aggressive posture.  Instead on both halves we regressed to looking like a young team getting their first playoff experience.  Combine that with some poor play from Wilson, Lewis, and Rubio and we never felt like we were going to turn it around after the initial surge.

We'll get into the offseason discussion more in coming weeks (but probably not until next week, given Thanksgiving) but this game showed how much the Rapids need to go out and get a top quality #9 this season.  Its great that anyone on the team can score, but its a problem when you can't lean on anyone with an expectation to score.  Rubio showed he can't carry the team as a 9 last night.  We need somebody in the Conor Casey mold (not in style of play, but in reliability and consistency).

Man of the Match: Kellyn Acosta.  Asked to play out of position and did it well.  And given how many of his teammates had off games, not having an off game when out of position says something.

What Are These Playoffs You Speak Of?

Its been a long 4 years (especially this last one) for Rapids supporters but yes sports fan, tomorrow the Rapids return to the playoffs for the first time since the Seattle series in 2016.  They're off to Minnesota again to face the Loons in the 4-5 matchup.  Looks like there will be some snow showers early tomorrow morning but by game time it should be clear and in the 40s.  Kickoff tomorrow is scheduled for 5:30pm, but the game is on ESPN so that may be when a 20 minute preshow starts, or it might be a 5 minute preshow.  Either way the good news is that the game is on ESPN and not blacked out in the Denver area for the first time since the MLS Is Back tournament.

There was a lot of talk going into the international break that teams would be missing players due to having to quarantine after returning from international duty.  Specifically for the Rapids Diego Rubio was called up by Chile.  We found out this week that shortly into his time with Chile he came into general, but not close, contact with a person who tested positive for COVID and the decision was made then to have him return to Colorado to go through quarantine.  He's been training by himself in that time but he is available tomorrow (and I think he joined the team for training for the last day or two).

Minnesota had multiple players going on international duty, including former Rapids striker Kei Kamara, and on top of their injuries they were going to be very thin tomorrow.  MLS apparently realized that having so many players missing in the playoffs, for all playoff teams, was a bad look for the league and they arranged charters home for as many players as they could, which greatly reduced the required quarantine time.  As far as I know all of Minnesota's players were included so nobody on either side will be in quarantine for this game.  The Rapids were probably better off had MLS not done that, but I understand why the league made that decision.  And there's still an advantage to the Rapids having not travelled in the last week while Minnesota's players are recovering from some long flights, such as Kamara returning from Sierra Leone.

I feet pretty good about this lineup, the only real change I could see would be Trusty over Wilson.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Bassett and Namli (in extra time).  This is likely to be a very cagey affair with nobody wanting to make a mistake.  I think the game plays out pretty evenly and forces an extra 30 minutes, where our youth and depth (not to mention lack of jet lag) gives us a slight edge.  Namli scores the winner on one of his ankle-breaking runs to put us through to the next round.

Houston Had A Problem

This week's games have been long periods of quiet play combined with a couple of moments of celebration.  Sunday was similar with a first half that wasn't anything to write home about and a second half that held all the goals, but was king of meh in-between.  In the end though,  with almost the last kick of the game, Rubio found the back of the net and moved the Rapids up from 7th to 5th.  They also shut down any talk about them not being deserving of a playoff spot.  MLS announced today that the Minnesota United - Colorado Rapids playoff match will be at 5:30pm MT on Sunday Nov. 22nd and will be broadcast on ESPN.

Both Rapids goals were remarkably similar.  Both came from long runs out of midfield down the left side that went completely unchecked (you can see why Houston wasn't in the playoff race).  For the first Namli played a pass to Shinyashiki who had his shot parried, but directly back into Namli's path who put it away.  For the second Rubio broke the goalkeeper's ankles cutting inside and curled the ball home for the late winner.  In neither case did the Dynamo defense even bother either player.

The Dynamo goal was just a bit of bad luck more than anything.  After a poor clearance by Yarbrough the ball came back into the box.  Rosenberry made a successful interception of a pass but the ball fell right into a gap between him and Abubakar where the Dynamo forward was waiting.  Despite that Yarbrough had the shot covered but a slight touch as it went back Abubakar deflected it just enough to go between Yarbrough's legs.  Band bounces all around.

With the win the Rapids finished the regular season 5th in the West.  This despite the on-going battle with COVID that stopped the season three different times.  Starting the year, what feels like a decade ago, I thought the Rapids needed to win a home playoff game in order to achieve the standard they set for themselves with their talk in the last 3 years.  That would have required a 4th place finish.  I'm willing to say 5th is good enough given the COVID difficulties and their success in the youth movement, plus winning back the Rocky Mountain Cup.  Topping it off with a playoff win a week from Sunday would really show that we've improved but even without it I think the team is in a good  place.  We'll get more into that in the offseason.

Man of the Match: William Yarbrough.  Yeah,  his clearance on the Dynamo goal wasn't great but otherwise he had another strong game.  Its not often he gets beat due to positioning, it takes a quality shot to get by him.  He showed that again in this game.

Time To Mess With Texas

The Rapids left for Houston today for their final regular season game tomorrow.  All 8 Western Conference playoff spots have been clinched so teams are just playing for positioning.  The Rapids could finish anywhere from 5th to 8th.  Luckily the schedule favors that.  San Jose plays Seattle, LAFC plays Portland, and the one negative, Dallas plays Minnesota (which is why we can't pass both of them), while we play last place Houston.  Kickoff tomorrow for all the Western Conference games is at 4:30pm.  TV is still Altitude only, but the league announced yesterday that all the playoff games will be nationally televised, so everyone will be able to see the Rapids in the playoffs, no blackouts!

I expect Fraser to go for the win tomorrow with the lineup, especially with there being two weeks off before the playoffs due to the international break.  There may be a player or two who need a rest, but otherwise we're going to see pretty close to the lineup we saw against Seattle and Portland.  Maybe Irwin starts in front of Yarbrough, but I doubt it.  Rosenberry, Abubakar, and Vines will likely start on the back line with either Wilson or Trusty.  Midfield will probably be Price, Acosta, Bassett, Namli, and Shinyashiki, but Lewis might get a start, and Rubio will be up front.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Bassett.  Houston is not very good and has nothing to play for, and the Rapids are clicking.  Goal Bassett gets his 7th and wins the team Golden Boot to go along with a probable team MVP award.  The Rapids finish 5th and get the Dallas-Minnesota winner in the first round (Dallas if that game ends up a draw).

Welcome Back My Friends

2 games, 2 Cascadia teams, the top 2 teams in the division, 6 points, 1 playoff spot.  That's a hell of a week for the Rapids.  When the final whistle blew Colorado was back in the playoffs for the first time in 4 years, and with room to spare.  The game itself was probably fairly dull for a neutral.  Colorado had 4 shots on goal all game, Portland had 0.  Other than the goal none of the shots bothered Portland's keeper (the highlight reel at MLSSoccer.com includes 2 off-target shots as the entirety of the Rapids offensive highlights outside the goal).  The closest Portland got to the goal was with literally their last kick of the game, which pinged off the post and went out for a goal kick.

The one point of excitement was early in the first half when Portland was called for a PK that was overturned on VAR.  The ball was played by the Portland defender and it spring up and clearly hit his arm in the box.  Clear PK, right?  No.  The most recent change in the handling rules clarified that an accidental touch on the arm after a defender plays the ball isn't automatically a PK.  If the defender is making himself unnaturally bigger it is a PK.  You could certainly argue that it applied in this case, but its a judgement call.

Other than that the primary highlight was Acosta's goal.  Rubio picked a Timbers' pocket in midfield, brought it towards goal, fed Namli in a give and go, then dumped it the other way to Acosta who sidestepped a defender and hammered it home.  Another good bit of ball work and a nice team goal.

So with the win the Rapids clinched a playoff spot.  Depending on what happens on Sunday the could finish anywhere form 5th to 8th (we can't get to 4th because Minnesota and Dallas play each other) which means we'll be on the road for the first playoff game.  Its just a matter of who we play.  If we win on Sunday we're also guaranteed to have more points than any of the teams that miss the playoffs.  We would also have enough points to have made the playoffs even if all our cancelled games had been credited as a forfeit by a 3-0 scoreline (the standard for FIFA forfeits),

Man of the Match: Kellyn Acosta.  Yeah, it was the easy choice.  But everyone played a solid game so the one thing that stood out was the goal.

Rapids Try To Clinch A Playoff Berth in Portland

 

Yep,  while everyone is running electoral math (yeah, going to be a long week) I've run the playoff math.  With a draw tomorrow, or the Galaxy not beating Seattle tomorrow night, the Rapids clinch a playoff spot.  2020 feels like 4 years long and combined with the 3 years prior it feels like forever since we've seen the playoffs but by this time tomorrow night we may be celebrating our spot.  Portland is battling a large injury list so a draw is certainly not off the table, though its a uphill battle.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm (LA kicks off an hour after us).

The starting lineup is going to be tricky.  There's a couple of questions, how many games can guys like Vines, Rosenberry, Namli, etc. play in a row without a break?  Also Price and Abubakar are one yellow from suspension.  If they got that yellow tomorrow night they would not be able to play in a critical (and probably more winnable) game on Sunday.  If they got a card on Sunday instead they would be suspended for the first game of 2021 (not the first playoff game).

So that leaves a lot of questions for tomorrow night.  Do you kind of write the game off, give a bunch a people a rest, and make sure you're at full strength?  Or do you focus on what's in front of you tomorrow and deal with Sunday on Sunday?  I think you can't rest Price and Abubakar just to avoid a yellow card.  You put the best XI out there you can without risking long-term injury or exhaustion to anyone.  If somebody needs a game off, give it to them, but otherwise get the win, or at least the point, tomorrow night and leave no doubt.  Also if the Rapids win both remaining games they'll finish in a position where they would have qualified for the playoffs even if the league hadn't changed to PPG, which wills hut some whiners up.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Bassett.  Portland has slightly better offenses and defenses but not by much and they're injured.  Plus while they would love to strengthen their hold on first place that doesn't have quite the same urgency as the Rapids will have trying to clinch their first playoff spot in 4 years.  I think that's enough for the teams to battle to a draw.  Worst case, if the Rapids lose, I think the Sounders get a result in LA anyway and we still clinch tomorrow night.

I Did Not See That Coming

Well, I look like an idiot after last night's game.  The Rapids that played FSL off the field in Sandy showed up to face Seattle last night and were clearly the better team.  All credit to Fraser and the guys for going from looking like a team that hadn't played in a month to a team that can hang with anyone in the league in a week.  The 3-1 score line was no fluke, they took the lead in the first half, then held a good Seattle offense without a shot on goal in the second half before putting the game away late.

With the win the road to the playoffs becomes much clearer, and easier.  The Rapids clinch a playoff berth in a number of ways.  The Rapids are in if:

• The Rapids draw or win either of their remaining games

OR

• The LA Galaxy fail to win both of their remaining games

OR

• The SJ-LAFC game is rescheduled for Wednesday and SJ gets no more than 1 point in its last two games

Right now of the teams who have not clinched a playoff spot in the West the Rapids have the best chance to clinch a spot.  It would be nice to win both games though which would give us more points than at least 4 other Western teams and shut up the whiners who think its unfair that the Rapids are going to "sneak" into the playoffs on PPG after not playing 5 games.

Coming back to last nights game the Rapids had three very different quality goals.  The first was a great team goal where Vines and Benezet played a give and go into the corner.  Vines then placed a nice chip in front of goal for Shinyashiki to head home.  Frenchman to American homegrown to Brazilian for the lead.

After a defensive breakdown (Rosenberry somehow left Morris unmarked at the top of the 6) the Rapids re-took the lead just before half.  A Jack Price corner was cleared to the top of the arc where Keegan Rosenberry hit it solid and true, ripping the ball into the corner of the net to take a lead to the halftime locker room.  Not the type of shot you expect from a right back.

The second half started out fairly even but Seattle started to wear out and the Rapids took more and more control.  Still it didn't seem like a 2-1 scoreline was likely to hold up, and technically it didn't.  With 15 minutes to play Jack Price lined up for a free kick and put it right in front of the net where Goal (we call him Goal now) Bassett headed it home for his 5th goal of the season,  tying Lewis for the team lead again.  Price's assist on the play broke the tie for the team lead with Bassett.  Any air went out of the Sounders at that point and a surprise win was wrapped up for Colorado.

Its really hard to point out anyone who had a poor game.  There were lapses here and there but really the only negative was Rubio being too selfish multiple times.  I understand strikers are naturally a bit selfish, it's part of their game, but there were 2-3 times Rubio passed up what should have been a great attempt at goal for one of his teammates to hold the ball to try to find a harder shot for himself.  He's got to know when to be selfish and when to lay it off.

Man of the Match: Nicholas Benezet.  His first start since the MLS Is Back tournament and again you can see the skill that we signed him for.  He was putting the ball into dangerous situations all night ans had the secondary assist on the first goal.  If he can stay healthy and play like this he can force himself into the starting XI next season.  But he's got to do that to be worth his salary, he can't be coming off the bench most of the season.

Can We Do 2013 Again?

In October of 2013 I flipped the coin before the Rapids home match against Seattle.  The Sounders won the toss, the only thing they won that night.  Deshorn Brown would score 13 seconds after kickoff on the way to a 5-1 win.  We need something like that tonight.  The Rapids have a slight chance to clinch a playoff spot tonight with a win and Portland getting at least a point, and LA and FSL drawing.  Even a point tonight would be huge for Colorado's playoff chances.  A loss and we have to be very concerned that we could miss out.  Kickoff tonight is at 7pm and its our last home game of the year.

Again, between COIVD, the lack of an injury report, and out packed schedule I'm not going to make a lineup prediction, though I expect Fraser to stick close to what was working in Minnesota on Wednesday.  A concerning note, Minnesota's game today was cancelled due to COVID positives in their team, which apparently includes a player that played against the Rapids on Wednesday.  So, not good.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Bassett.  I really wanted to predict a draw but Seattle's defense is really good and ours is not.  I don't think they'll shut us out but I can't see us hanging with them, unfortunately.