Draft News

So just as we headed into the busiest time of the holiday season the Rapids made a move.  On Thursday Colorado traded $75K of GAM to Toronto to swap positions in the Re-Entry and Waiver Drafts (we got #2, they got #22).  With the #2 pick in the Re-Entry Draft we then selected the rights to Bryan Acosta, who's option was not picked up by Dallas.  Acosta is coming off a DP contract with FCD and was making $650K last year, but by waiting for Phase 2 of the Re-Entry process the Rapids are only committed to making a bona fide offer to him within a week, we do not need to pick him up at his option number.

The new Acosta is, much like our current Acosta, an international central mid.  The difference is that Bryan plays for Honduras and wants to be a bit more forward than Kellyn.  A number of Rapids fans a re a bit puzzled adding to our already stuffed midfield of Price, Kellyn, Kay, and Bassett.  This is probably an indicator that Cole Bassett is going to go to Europe as expected, but even with that its going to be hard to get everyone the playing time they're  looking for, unless we're going to be changing formations.  So a number of fans have taken this as evidence that Kellyn Acosta is also on the move to Europe.

I think that's jumping to conclusions.  We're going to have a stuffed schedule next year, especially if we take the CCL seriously, so having more depth is a good thing.  Plus Bryan Acosta isn't signed yet.  Even if we do bring him in and nobody other than Bassett moves (and I don't think we make this move if Bassett isn't at least leaving) we still have options with Kellyn Acosta being able to play wing back and even Kaye being able to move more forward.

At this point though, Padraig Smith has put together a series of winning moves with intra-league selections.  Benny Feilhaber is really the only mistake he made and he still managed to get a decent package in return when trading him to SKC. (Benezet was technically in France when we acquired him and wouldn't count).  I'm willing to give him some time to see how this all turns out, I mean, we've still got 52 games until our first match of 2022.  ;)

Schedule Analysis

So far its all quiet on the player front.  There are a couple of rumors about players coming and going out there, but nothing confirmed.  In light of that, on to the delayed schedule analysis.

First of all we now know that the Rapids will play their first round CCL games on February 17th (in Guatemala) and 23rd (at the Dick).  Looks like kickoff on the 23rd will be at 6:30pm, which means things are going to be...cold by the end of the game probably.

After those two its into the  MLS season.  We already know we're starting on the road at LAFC before coming home to play Atlanta, one of 8 Eastern teams we're playing next year.  The Rapids did not get a favorable Eastern Conference schedule, playing 5 of the 6 2021 playoff teams, plus Nashville (who's moving to the West).  The only playoff team we miss is New England.  We also get DC and Columbus, the two teams just outside the playoffs.  We do get expansion Charlotte but otherwise we have to play the teams that finished 2nd through 9th in the East in 2021.

Outside of that we  know we're playing everyone in the West twice.  So its really a matter of when we play them.  The first one to look at is always FSL, who we get at home on April 2nd and in Sandy on July 9th.  I have to look but it feels like more often than not we finish the RMC in Utah, which seems an unfair benefit to them.  Its certainly happened 3 years in a row now.  We get Dallas very early, April 9th, in Dallas but then don't see them again until the last home game of the year in October.  Gary Smith and the rest of the 2010 Rapids gang return to Colorado over Memorial Day weekend.

As far as frequency of games go, our first 3 game week is in late May when LAFC and Seattle at home on the weekends have a trip to KC in-between them.  That's as light a 3-game week as the Rapids can have when it comes to travel.  After that Memorial Day game the Rapids don't play at home again until the 4th of July, with only two games total in June, both on the road.  In the two weeks starting on 4th of July the Rapids have 4 games, all but the RMC match in Sandy at home.  Again, another light travel for short rest games.

Getting into the back half of the season there's another 3-game week in August, with two home games around a trip to Vancouver.  Not as easy as KC and Sandy but it could be a lot worse.  Then after a week off there's another 3-game week finishing on Labor Day weekend, this time all on the road in Philly, Nashville, and DC.  I fully expect (COVID permitting) the Rapids to set up for a week in the Philly/DC area instead of flying back to Denver after all 3 games.  So travel won't be that big of a deal that week.  Then again after another week break it's 3 more games in a week, this time with the first two at home before a trip to LA-LA land to play the Galaxy.  The team gets two full weeks off before the final two games, the aforementioned home finale against Dallas and then a trip to Austin to finish the regular season.

That 3-game East Coast swing before Labor Day is the only time we have more than 2 home or away games in a row.  As you can see by that tight end of the season schedule (9 games in 5 weeks) its going to be important to build up a bit of a buffer in the first 2/3rds of the season while we're more well-rested.  Twice we have long road trips between games, but they're both a week apart.  We go between NY and the Northwest on both of them, first from NYCFC to Portland, then Seattle to RBNY the second time.

Overall the pacing and the travel in this schedule is fairly favorable.  Of course we don't know how much added travel and subtracted rest we might get early in the season with our CCL play.  The real negative on this schedule is getting all the tough Eastern teams and not getting teams like Miami, Chicago, and Cincinnati.

Scheduling!

We got both the full 2022 MLS schedule and our CCL draw today.  Full schedule analysis will be saved for this weekend (hopefully) but two things that stand out is that we have an early Rocky Mountain Cup home match on April 2nd, and the week leading into Labor Day is a 3-game week in Philly, Nashville, and DC, which seems like a doable road trip for people so-inclined (at the very least got to Philly, spend a week seeing Philly and DC, and go to the game in DC).

The CCL draw is a little easier to analyze.  Our first opponent is Comunicaciones FC of Guatemala.  The first leg will be in Guatemala on February 15th-17th with the return leg at the Dick on Feb 22nd-24th.  This is a team we should be able to beat, even coming out of preseason.  Assuming we don't fall flat on our face we'll get the winner of the NYCFC-Santos de Guapiles (Costa Rica), again with the first leg away and the second leg at the Dick.

Should we get through that match and onto the semifinals we'll get the remaining team out of Guastatoya (Guatemala), Montagua (Honduras), the Sounders, and Leon.  Leon would be an intriguing matchup given that's where Yarbrough came to us from, and rolling it all the way back to 1996 that's also where Marcelo Balboa came to us from.  We also faced Leon in the first round of the then CONCACAF Champions Cup in 1998 after being the runner up in MLS Cup '97, being eliminated 403 on aggregate after beating Leon 1-0 in the first leg at Mile High.

This is about as solid a draw as we could hope for if we want to finally make some noise in international play.  Only 1 of the 4 Mexican teams ended up on our side of the bracket, and they're in the upper half while we're in the lower half.  So there are two chances for them to be eliminated before we could even face them.  Of course none of that matters if we don't take care of business, first by beating a team we should beat, and then taking out a team we should also beat, or taking out the defending MLS Cup champs.  Both of these are absolutely possible.

No Rapids Taken In The Expansion Draft

The Rapids escaped being hurt by the expansion draft again this year.

Expansion Draft and Reviewing Predictions

First up, we got the news on who the  Rapids left unprotected in tomorrow's expansion draft.  One thing I didn't realize in making my predictions last week is that Auston Trusty is no longer on a homegrown contract but he still counts as a homegrown for automatic protection in the expansion draft.  So that would allow one more additional protected player, which I would have used on Danny Wilson.

Of the 12 protected players the Rapids and I agreed on 11 of them (Abubakar, Acosta, Barrios, Esteves, Galvan, Kaye, Lewis, Price, Rosenberry, Trusty, and Yarbrough).  The one place we disagreed was that I would have protected Rubio, and the Rapids chose to protect Shinyashiki instead.

Given the rumors out of Chile that Colo-Colo is interested in Rubio I find this an interesting move.  Either the Rapids don't think those rumors amount to anything and are happy to risk losing Rubio's large contract in the draft, or there's a side-deal with Charlotte not to take him.  I can't image risking losing a transfer fee in the expansion draft.

If I had to bet Charlotte takes nobody, but if we do lose somebody its probably going to be Rubio or Irwin.  I say Irwin as I was reminded today that he's a Charlotte native, so the club might want to have a hometown guy on the roster.  We'll know tomorrow.

Secondly, its time for me to face the music.  Back at the beginning of the season (as I do every year) I made a number of predictions, and as I do every year its time to review them to see what I got right and what I didn't.

• Rapids are comfortably in a playoff spot (top 7 make playoffs this year) for most of the season and finish 5th, but they push hard for that 4th spot and a home playoff game

Well that was a miss, but it was a miss in a good way.  And in my defense, I didn't see any serious prediction from anyone that had the Rapids higher than 5th.

• Because of that they surprise the 4th placed team in the playoffs and win on the road, but fall in the next round

Can I take credit for predicting the Rapids would lose in the conference semifinals?  No?  Half a point?  Half a point. 

• The do stumble a bit out of the gate which means they don't qualify for one of the 8 MLS spots in the USOC

N/A as once again, actually the day after I made the prediction, the USOC was cancelled

• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup again, despite 2 of 3 being played in Utah

No #$#%#! comment

• Rubio wins the team Golden Boot with double-digit goals

Rubio didn't win it, and the winner didn't have double-digit goals.  Clear miss.

• Namli is the team MVP (yes, same prediction as last year)

Ah....no.   (It was Price)

• Vines repeats as defensive player of the year

I think if he had stayed all season this would have been accurate, given that Vines + Trusty at LB might have been our DotY.  But a miss.

• One but only one American starter is sold in the summer window (extra credit prediction, its Bassett)

Nailed it, but missed the extra credit

• The Rapids add an international player in the summer window, but not a major blockbuster player on paper

Hello Lucas Esteves

• Mayaka will not be in the Rookie of the Year conversation despite being picked as the consensus #1 before the draft

Well I nailed that one, though I expected more than we got out of him (which was nothing at the first team level)

• The other 6 playoff teams in the West will be LAFC, Seattle, Portland, SKC, Minnesota, and San Jose

4 out of 6 (5 out of 7 when you include the Rapids)?  I'm going to call that good enough to give me a point.

• Acosta and Vines get National Team callups during the season, Lewis and Trusty do not.  I'm pushing on Bassett getting a callup or not

Ok, Lewis did get 1 appearance at the Gold Cup but otherwise I got these right.  Counting it. 

So that's a generous 5.5 points out of 11.  A severe regression from my 8 of 11 in 2020.  Not a good year for me, but a great year for the Rapids.

For the rest of this week we can expect news on the expansion, waiver, and re-entry drafts, and the schedule and CCL draw on Wednesday.  I have a busy week of family obligations with the holidays though, so don't be surprised if you don't see a lot about those  right away.  I'll try to get any news up quickly (like if we lose/add anyone in the drafts, or our CCL opponent) but analysis of the moves or the schedule may not come until this weekend sometime.

Condolences to Kort Ford and everyone that knew Laurie

 

Laurie Ford, Kortne Ford's mother, passed away this morning.  Laurie fought cancer for almost 5 years, multiple times getting diagnoses of only have 3-6 months left and fighting through them.  As Kort revealed after the regular season ended they determined that she had fought long enough and she was being made as comfortable as they could for the time she had left.  Kort and Laurie will always be part of our Rapids family and I think I can safely speak for the Rapids fanbase when I say our condolences go out to Kort and everyone who knew Laurie.. 

Expansion draft coming

In 2022 we add Charlotte FC to the league, which means yet another expansion draft is coming.  The draft will be next Tuesday, December 14th.  The rules this time around are that Charlotte gets 5 picks, they can't pick more than one player from a team, and the teams that lost players to Austin last year are exempt from the draft this year.

The Rapids can protect 12 players, plus every homegrown player under 25 or under and ever y Generation Adidas player.  The roster is everyone on the team at the end of the season, regardless of contract status.  However players out of contract (in the Rapids case, Badji, Beitashour, and Moor) hold no real benefit to Charlotte in picking them as they are still free to sign anywhere they want.  Players who's options were declined however are valuable because Charlotte can pick them, but I believe they have to pick up their option year to do it.

In last year's expansion draft Beitashour, Mezquida, Moor, Rawls, and Warner were left unprotected.

Automatically protect on the Rapids roster are: Seb Anderson, Cole Bassett, Michael Edwards, Kortne Ford, Matt Hundley, Ollie Larraz, Phillip Mayaka (Generation Adidas), Abe Rodriguez, Yaya Toure, Will Vint, and Darren Yapi.

The notable name not on that list is Kellyn Acosta, who is now too old to be automatically protected as a homegrown player.

Given that, here's my prediction/suggestion on who will be protected by the Rapids:

Lalas Abubakar, Kellyn Acosta, Michael Barrios, Lucas Esteves, Brain Galvan, Mark-Anthony Kaye, Jonathan Lewis, Jack Price, Keegan Rosenberry, Diego Rubio, Auston Trusty, and William Yarbrough.

But the expansion draft is as much about who you leave unprotected and why as it is who you protect.  I think the above are all obvious choices but I want to explain my reasoning on who I didn't protect:

Badji, Beitashour, & Moor all have the same reasoning.  Charlotte doesn't get anything out of selecting them, unless they think being left unprotected upsets the player enough to want to turn down any offer from Colorado and sign with Charlotte.  Beitashour and Moor were left unprotected last year and are still negotiating so that's clearly not an issue for them, and I can't see it being an issue for Badji.

Namli & Rawls - We've already said goodbye to them, no need to protect them

Clint Irwin - I think we saw this year he's the solid #2 in net, and you just can't justify protecting your #2 while leaving a more regular player unprotected.  There's an outside chance Charlotte could take him.

Jeremy Kelly - He's got some talent but is just a backup right now.  I can't see him being selected as one of the 5 picks by Charlotte.

Nicolas Mezquida - He's got a high number and is a bench player.  We're not even sure we're going to re-sign him.  He's not worth protecting because his loss wouldn't be that big of an impact.  I don't think Charlotte would be interested in him but it wouldn't be completely surprising.

Andre Shinyashiki - We have 3 forwards and we should protect at least one of them.  With Badji out of contract its either Rubio or Shinyashiki.  Neither one would be irreplaceable if Charlotte selected them, but there are hints of interest in Rubio from Chile.  That possible interest plus Diego being slightly more consistent makes him the choice to protect and Shinyashiki the one to leave exposed.  I wouldn't expect him to get taken though as I think forward is where Charlotte will spend money to bring in players instead of looking at the draft.

Collen Warner - I don't se an aging backup d-mid being somebody Charlotte is going to take.

Danny Wilson - This is the one difficult choice.  It really came down to protecting Rubio or Wilson and again, the interest from Chile made the difference.  I also think an international average MLS CB (at best) is an unlikely target for Charlotte but I won't say I feel confident they won't take a chance on Wilson.  But the reality is we have 13 players who aren't automatically protected that I wouldn't want to lose and only 12 slots.

2 Rapids 2 Follow in 2022

A big announcement from MLS today that includes the Rapids.  The league is starting MLS Next Pro in 2022.  This will be, essentially, a reserve league and the Rapids will be fielding a team called Rapids 2.  I don't know if that's a placeholder name or not.  19 other MLS teams will also be in the league along with one independent club, Rochester.  Then in 2023 8 of the 9 remaining teams will join.  Montreal is the only team that has not announced plans to join the league.  MLS has said they will also be inviting other independent clubs like Rochester to join the league in future years.

MLS is aiming this league to be roughly equivalent in quality to USL League One, a step below the USL Championship where the Switchbacks play.  USL League One is where Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC out of Greely is playing starting next season.  This is designed to serve as a bridge between Academy and MLS play.

For 2022 the Rapids 2 will be in the Western Conference of the league along with most of its current Western Conference brethren.  Austin, Nashville, and both LA clubs won't join until 2023 however.  St. Louis, who will join MLS in 2023 will have a MLS Next Pro team in the West in 2022.

The Rapids 2 team will be made up of Academy kids on amateur contracts, first team players getting playing time with Rapids 2, and players signed specifically for the Rapids 2 squad.  Expect most of the players we've sent on loan over the last couple years to be the type of players we now see playing for Rapids 2.  As part of their announcement the Rapids included that their official partnership with the Colorado Springs Switchbacks has been concluded.  That's a logical step to take given the new team, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the occasional loan to the Springs given the higher level of play there.

As part of this Brian Crookham has stepped down as GM of the Switchbacks and has been named GM of Rapids 2.  That fits in well with his on-going role as Senior Director of Soccer Development with the Rapids.

I'll be expanding the coverage on the blog to include as much Rapids 2 news as I can.  It will be very interesting to see how the Rapids grow to include a second team like this.

Callups and Roster Announcements

As expected the Rapids released their roster moves today, but before we get to those one other piece of news.  The roster for the Dec. 18th U.S. friendly against Bosnia-Herzegovina was announced to today and Colorado had 3 players on the roster, most of any team.  As expected Kellyn Acosta will be in camp, but so will Cole Bassett and Auston Trusty.  Both of them have been in camp in the past but have not yet been capped for the full national team.

Now, on to the roster news.  As expected Colorado picked up the options for Kellyn Acosta and Mark-Anthony Kaye, and they also picked up Andre Shinyashiki's option.  They declined the options on Kortne Ford, Jeremy Kelly, Nicolas Mezquida, Younes Namli, Andre Rawls and Will Vint.

I think the only real surprise in that group is not picking up Ford's option.  He might have a big escalation clause, or they might want to work out a longer-term deal with him now rather than wait until the end of his contract.

They included in the announcement that they are in negotiations to bring back Ford, Kelly, and Mezquida, as well as out of contract players Dominique Badji, Steven Beitashour, and Drew Moor.

This means they are saying goodbye to Namli, Rawls, and Vint.  As I predicted yesterday, none of those are surprising.  They didn't feel like they had a future here.

Out of the six players the club is still negotiating with all but Kelly are eligible for free agency and could decide to go elsewhere.  I'd be very surprised if Ford and Moor sign anywhere else (especially Moor).  I half-expect Beitashour to retire but if he doesn't I could see him deciding not to come back to Colorado if he has a chance to go back to San Jose, considering that's his hometown and he spent more time there than anywhere else in his career.  I really hope Badji is happy here and wants to come back.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Mezquida try to see if he could get a better deal elsewhere.  Kelly could decide to sstay, or try to find playing time by dropping into the USL.

The priorities for the Rapids should be to re-sign Badji, Ford, and Moor.  They're the most likely to contribute in 2022 out of that group.

Post-Season Roster Analysis

Today the Rapids announced that they've signed Michael Barrios to a contract extension for next season, with a team option for 2023.  An obvious move that needed to get done sooner rather than later.

That news, along with the knowledge that Colorado's roster decisions were due yesterday, and will likely be announced late tomorrow, means that this is the time to go through my opinion of the players we should keep and the ones we should move on from.

Normally this is a long post going player by player and ending up wanting to replace a significant number.  This season, thanks to the solid roster construction by Padraig Smith and Robin Fraser, the post is going to be much shorter.  First, there's a core group that should obviously be kept.  That group is:

GK; William Yarbrough, Abe Rodriguez

D: Lalas Abubakar, Seb Anderson, Michael Edwards, Kortne Ford, Keegan Rosenberry, Danny Wilson

M: Kellyn Acosta, Braian Galvan, Mark-Anthony Kaye, Oliver Larraz, Jonathan Lewis, Philip Mayaka, Jack Price, Darren Yapi

F: Michael Barrios, Matt Hundley, Yaya Toure

These are either obviously core members of our team, homegrowns, or young players that we should continue to develop.  Some of them, like Acosta and Ford, are in option years and should have their options picked up.

There are two names missing from the list, and its because I wouldn't be shocked to see them sold to Europe.  Cole Bassett is almost certainly gone after declining a transfer this season.  The other that I wouldn't be surprised to be sold is Auston Trusty.  If they aren't sold they, obviously, should be kept.

After that group there are 5 players that are free agents, either directly or if we don't pick up their option:

Andre Rawls is in an option year.  I would probably let him go because I don't see a real future with the team, but if the club likes having him in USL as an emergency keeper I don't see a problem with that.

Steven Beitashour is out of contract.  I wouldn't be shocked if he retires.  If he doesn't I don't know that there's a good reason to re-sign him, but if we do, again, no big deal.

Dominique Badji is out of contract.  Even though it would cost us 50K in GAM to Nashville, I'd re-sign him assuming we could get him ad a workable number.  He's obviously improved from his first stint in Colorado and is a nice option off the bench.

Drew Moor is out of contract.  I can't see him signing anywhere else, so the only question is if he wants to play another year.  Personally if he's willing to take $150K-$200K to be a locker room presence and to close out the last 10 minutes of games I'm happy to give him a contract every year until he's 50.  He's the only name missing from the Rapids Gallery of Honor (because he hasn't retired yet) and is a club legend.  It doesn't hurt at all to keep him on the roster if he wants it.

Nicolas Mezquida is the last player that would be a free agent if we don't pick up his option.  This one I just don't know about.  $300K is a lot of money for a backup midfielder.  I don't see the value on the field.  That said, he's apparently one of the best locker room presences on the team, and is  willing to do whatever is necessary to help the club.  If those intangibles are important enough to Smith and Fraser then I could see picking up his option but I think its a real stretch.

We also have two players on loan, with very different results:

Lucas Esteves - We should continue his loan with a plan to buy him when it ends if he continues on his current trajectory.

Younes Namli - his loan is up at the end of the season, and we should let him go.  He doesn't fit what this team has turned into.  He clearly has talent and had we gone towards a system that could utilize a #10 and/or ended up with fewer quality outside players he might be worth pursuing.  But right now the money spent on him doesn't match the upgrade in his position on the field.  We'd be better off spending that money on a true striker.

That leaves us a group of players who may or may not be out of contract but aren't members of the core group:

GK - Clint Irwin - I know there's a thought that having two #1's pushes them to be better, but I think Yarbrough is pulling away from Irwin  At this point I think a younger understudy is a better #2 option.  If we get a chance to move Irwin we should.

D - Jeremy Kelly - I like his utility, he's currently at a low number, he's a good low-risk investment to keep him in 2022.

M - Will Vint - Your guess is as good as mine on what's going on with Vint.  I assume whatever it is will drive the decision to keep him or not.

M - Collen Warner - He's a good backup.  Hard to to better at $80K.

F - Diego Rubio - Rubio is not the answer as a starting #9 for this team.  However he does have quality and there was rumored interest from Chile.  If we can find a way to trade him in the league or sell him we should.  He's under contract through the 2023 season with a club option for 2024 so he's not going anywhere otherwise, but we shouldn't rely on him as a starter.

F - Andre Shinyashiki - The former Rookie of the Year seems to have stalled in his development.  He probably needs to play regularly, but that's not going to happen here.  He's probably too good for a USL loan.  He was on a team option in 2021.  If we can get him back at around his current number ($130K) as a backup, its probably worth it.  But if we lose him in the expansion draft or we can deal him in a trade it wouldn't be a significant loss.

That's it, that's all 34 players currently on the roster.  Next up we'll talk expansion draft (probably next week as I expect to have the roster news over the weekend).

Best Season Ever Ends With Thud

Well, that sucked.  A glorious day, a wonderful tailgate, a great crowd, and a 1-0 last minute loss.  This is not how we envisioned our greatest season ever ending.  In the end Portland made the play we couldn't.  There will be a lot of discussion and some blame thrown around over the next 3 months but in the end I don't think there's any one person or one decision that cost us the game.  Sometimes you just get beat and this was one of those days.  It sucks, especially when you see we would be hosting 7th seeded FSL had we won, but the good news is that we're set up to roll into next season.

Random Musings:

• Maybe its my long history of being a fan of bad Seattle sports teams (Seahawks, Mariners, Sonics, Huskies, Kraken, never Sounders) but I'm at the point in sports where I've learned to never let the highs get you too high or the lows get you too low.  The only real exceptions to that are finals and rivalry games.  Washington losing the Apple Cup this weekend would have hurt more than the Rapids loss most years, except the Huskies have been so bad this year it didn't surprise me.  There's always next year.
• Along those lines we a 80 days (+/- a day) from our CCL first round road leg.  90 days from our opening MLS match of 2022.  So not a whole lot of time to dwell on this one compared to many offseasons.
• So the one moment a lot of Rapids fans are focusing on is the non-PK call in the 32nd minute.  I took a look at my recording from FOX and IMO that's a 50/50 call.  Some refs are going to call it, some aren't.  If it had been called against us we would have called it a soft penalty.  I don't think Unkel got it wrong and there's certainly no grounds for VAR to overturn it.
• The other complaint is that Fraser screwed up by leaving our top two scorers on the bench.  Barrios, of course, has been starting on the bench most of the last two months of the season.  In place our third-best scorer, and the one with the hot foot, Badji started.  Hard to fault a coach for riding with the hot foot.  In Lewis' place was Bassett, who had two less goals than Lewis.  Of course Lewis got those two goals in the final game of the season (and Cole got one as well) so its not like Lewis was clearly a better choice than Bassett.  In my projected lineup I had Galvan and Barrios starting in those two spots.  And of course, the only players to get shots on target were Badji and Bassett.
• We really suffered from not taking advantage of our first half dominance.  The more we let Portland hang around the more they grew into the game, and the flatter we went.  That's the one place I felt like Fraser failed is not seeing us losing momentum in the second half and changing things up earlier.  Subs should have been in the 60th minute and not the 70th.
• The last shot we got off was in the 72nd minute (a miss by Bassett).  At that point our expected goals were about double Portland's (1.2 to 0.6).  After that Portland had two good shots that jumped the expected goals to 2.1 (and obviously, one went in).  So not only did the subs come late, they essentially added no offense.  Despite putting in our two best scorers.
• The goal was all kinds of bad luck.  First the corner that it came from was unnecessary.  Yarbrough was playing it safe and made sure to get a hand on a high shot/cross but on replay that ball was going to be off target and out of play without him touching it.  Then the corner deflects off of Lewis(?) right into a scrum of Rosenberry, Trusty, and a couple of Timbers.  Two lucky deflections put the ball right where it can be knocked home.  The defense was good enough, until it wasn't.
• In the end our best players were on the field when it mattered, Portland was down their best player (Blanco) and the Timbers made the play when they needed to.  Hat-tip to them, now go out and kick FSL up and down the pitch.
• Huge shout out to the fans and the Front Office.  I think its fair to say every Rapids fan raised an eyebrow when we heard that we were hosting on Thanksgiving.  A team that has historically struggled with attendance hosting on a major holiday?  But everyone came through in a big way, the stands were (nearly) full and loud.
• An additional round of applause to the C38 tailgate crew.  Back when I was legitimately part of the tailgate organizers we pulled off some big tailgates (Snow Clasico!) but nothing like this.  A full Thanksgiving dinner for what was probably closer to 1000 people.  An epic level of tailgating that may never be topped.

Now that the season is done we'll go through our normal post-season coverage.  Who should stay, who should go.  Re-visting my predictions.  And of course we have an expansion draft as well.  Plus the schedule should come out before Christmas and we'll have the CCL draw on Dec. 15th.  I expect things to calm down over the holidays before a quick ramp-up to the season in January and February.

Man of the Match: Danny Wilson.  If there was any single highlight for the Rapids it was Wilson clearing a shot off the line.  Overall though everyone played pretty equally.

Thanksgiving Futbol

Happy Thanksgiving!  Hopefully if you're not spending it with me and 17,000 other members of our Rapids family you're spending it with your family, in whatever shape that takes.  And hopefully they have FOX because our Burgundy Boys are taking on the timbers at 2:30 MT.  This is what the Rapids have always wanted.  #1 seed, home-field advantage, and a shot at MLS Cup.  Time to take advantage of what we earned in the regular season.

No injuries, no discipline, and no international absences.  Everyone on the roster (that wasn't loaned out) is available tomorrow.  We've had 18 days off so everyone is fully rested.  Fraser can choose whatever lineup he wants.

I expect us to us the same 5-4-1/5-2-3 we used against Portland in both our regular season games.  The key to breaking down Portland's defense is their wingbacks.  Galvan was successful against Portland in the last match at home so that's why I see him starting on the left with Barrios using his speed on the right.  Out striker could be any one of Rubio, Lewis, or Badji but I think Diego gets the nod.  Acosta gets the left wing-back spot so Kaye and Price can be in the center.  I expect Rosenberry, as possibly our most reliable defender, to start on the right but it could be Acosta on the right and Esteves on the left (how we lined up in the home game against Portland).  And of course the big 3 along the back line with Will behind them.  Given that the big threat from Portland is Blanco, I'd be half tempted to tell Trusty "you've got one job when the ball is in our half, find Blanco and stick to him like glue".  But that's why I'm writing this and Robin is coaching.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Barrios and Bassett.  Really the key in this game is not to give up an early goal, or really go behind at all.  As long as Portland has to find a goal the game favors us.  They're on short rest and at altitude.  If they get ahead they're going to go into a shell and park the bus, something we've struggled to break this season.  I think we get a first-half goal and then with Portland chasing in the second and getting tired we double the lead.  They get one back to push us the full 90  but we win and wait to see if we host SKC or FSL for a spot in MLS Cup.

Colorado vs. Portland - Regular Season Matchups

With Portland coming for Thanksgiving we should look back at how we did against them this season.  Both games took place late in the year, one in mid-September and one in late-October.

In our mid-September game we travelled to Portland midweek in-between home games against the Galaxy and Vancouver.  This was during our run of 4 draws in September that we thought had cost us a shot at the 1 seed (it did probably cost us a shot at the Shield).  We lined up in the 5-4-1/5-2-3 formation we used most of the last half of the season.  Lewis played forward with Bassett and Shinyashiki on the outside, Kaye and Price in midfield, Rosneberry and Galvan at wingbacks, and the big 3 in the center.  This was the game that Portland's Tuiloma got a red card right before half.  He had a yellow card in the 33rd minute, then had a red card and yellow card tackle within 5 seconds in the 42nd minute.

At that point the Rapids were feeling fairly confident about their chances and they turned that into a goal by Lewis in the 63rd, only for Portland to level it in the 67th.  Then Barrios hit what we all thought was the game winner in the 87th.  This was his chip from an insane angle along the end line that somehow went in.  Unfortunately Blanco came right back down the field and tied it four minutes later, absolutely stealing a point from the Rapids.  As you would expect with a man advantage for a full half Colorado dominated every statistical category, except both teams had an Expected Goals of 1.9, and it finished 2-2.  This was that period of the season where we were taking a ton of low percentage shots to end up with a decent xGoals.

In the second match in Colorado things went much more in our favor.  This was a weekend game between Wednesday games where we drew Seattle and our one late loss in our trip to New England.  One significant change, other than location, was that Blanco was injured for this match.  The Rapids had 3 lineup changes from the game in Portland, with Rubio starting up front and Badji starting for Shinyashiki.  Rosenberry was injured so Acosta started in his place.  Same 5-4-1/5-2-3 formation.  The stats showed this game as fairly even the Timbers never felt like they were in the match. All but one shot they put on net had less than a 5% Expected goals (and the one above 5% was 5.52%).  They never really threatened.

On the Rapids side this was one of Galvan's best games, who set up both Rapids goals.  Badji was really getting rolling into the hot streak he finished the season on, and Rubio got on the scoreboard as well.  The Expected Goals were much more in our favor, 1.9 to 0.3 and sure enough, we won by 2.  With the win Colorado officially clinched a playoff spot and was 1 point away from clinching a home playoff match.

What we see from these two games is that Blanco is the key to the Timbers attack.  He scored twice in their playoff win over Minnesota on Sunday.  The good news is that at 33 years old he played 88 minutes on Sunday and is now coming to altitude 4 days later.  But we're going to have to lock him down to succeed on Thursday.  On the attack we obviously match up well, scoring 2 goals in both matches.  Keep doing what we're doing on that end and concentrate on keeping Portland off the board.

Season Openers Announced!

So I wasn't expecting this until after the playoffs or maybe MLS Cup week, but the league announced the home openers for the 2022 season today.  This is a good indication that we'll get the full schedule no later than shortly after MLS Cup.  Certainly before everyone goes into holiday mode in a month.

The Rapids will start where they ended the regular season, facing LAFC.  In this case we'll be on the road.  We'll then be at home in the second week against Atlanta.  And of course, as we discussed yesterday, they will host a CCL game in the week leading up to the opener.  So the schedule as we know it so far:

Feb 15th-17th - Concacaf Champions League, Away leg

Feb 22nd-24th - Concacaf Champions League Home leg

Sat. Feb 26th, 1:30pm MT - @LAFC

Sat. March 5th, 4pm MT - Atlanta United

Upcoming Opponents Decided

This weekend our upcoming opponent for Thursday's playoff match and for the Concacaf Champions League in February were partially decided.

Frist, the big one, we'll play Portland on Thursday in the conference semifinals.  So far this season we've beaten them 2-0 at home and drawn them 2-2 in Portland.  Later this week we'll go into more detail about those two matches and what to expect on Thursday.

Concacaf also announced the details of the Concacaf Champions League.  The draw will take place on December 15th but we know 15 of the 16 teams in the competition already.  The teams are ranked by how the teams in those slots have done in past editions of the CCL, not how the qualified teams have done in past editions.  For example, the Supporters Shield winner always gets the USA2 slot, and based on how past Shield winners have done the Revs are ranked 5th of the 16th teams.  The other conference winner always gets the USA3 slot, and based how they've done over the years the Rapids have the best ranking of American teams in 4th.  Given that the rankings for 2022 are already known as well as 15 of the 16 teams in the slots:

Cruz Azul - Mexico

Leon - Mexico

UNAM (Pumas) - Mexico

Colorado Rapids - USA

New England Revolution - USA

Montreal - Canada

MLS Cup winner* - USA

Seattle Sounders - USA

***********

Santos Laguna - Mexico

Santos de Guapiles - Costa Rica

Motagua - Honduras

Saprissa - Costa Rica

Cavaly - Haiti/Concacaf League

Guastatoya - Guatemala/Concacaf League

Comunicaciones - Guatemala/Concacaf League

Forge FC - Canada/Concacaf League

The last 4 spots are awarded to the semi-finalists of the Concacaf league, played among qualifiers from the smaller leagues in the region.  The competition is in the semi-final stage so we know the 4 teams who will qualify but the order of the two Guatemalan teams may change based on who wins the semi-final between them.

* - If the MLS Cup winner is one of New England, Colorado, or Seattle, the highest team in the Shield standings who hasn't yet qualified for the CCL will get the spot.  This year that would be Sporting KC.

Once the 16 teams are ranked they're split into the top 8 and the bottom 8, and one from each side of the split are drawn against each other.  So you can see that which of the spots the Guatemalan team fills or if one of the MLS teams moves into the MLS Cup spot doesn't really matter as they stay in the same pot.

The rules of the draw are that teams from the same federation can't be drawn against each other (there's an exception to that but it won't apply this year).  So Montreal can't draw Forge FC and Santos Laguna can't draw Cruz Azul, Leon, or Pumas (which means they will draw a MLS team).

So the possible Rapids opponents in the first round are any of the bottom 8 teams in that list up there.  The first round will take place as a home and home series on Feb. 15th-17th and Feb. 22nd-24th.  As the higher ranked team the Rapids will host the second leg on Feb. 22nd-24th.

As part of the draw on Dec. 15th the teams will be placed into a traditional 16 team bracket, like the Sweet Sixteen, and they'll know what their path to the final is.  In the quarter-finals the winners of series 1, 3, 5, and 7 in that bracket will host the second legs of the home-and-home series (generally considered the better option).  Those will be played March 8-10th and March 15th-17th.  For the semis and final the host of the second leg will be determined by the records of the teams involved in the earlier rounds, with the team with the better record getting the second leg.  The semis will be played April 5th-7th and April 12th-14th, and the finals will be April 26th-28th and May 3rd-5th.

Help One Of Our Own

I was going to post about the CONCACAF CL format announcement and some other odds and ends tonight, but something more important has come up.

If you've been a fan of the Rapids for a while you know Kortne Ford's story, and specifically how his mom has battled breast cancer and multiple times has been told she has 3-6 months to live only to still be with us years later.  Sadly though, the cancer has finally won.  The decision has been made to end treatment and focus on her quality of life for the time she has left.  As part of that she needs hydration treatments to avoid malnourishment and her insurance doesn't cover it (the medical finance system in this country is a whole separate blog on it own).

Kort has started a GoFundMe to raise the necessary amount for these treatments.  As you would expect the Rapids community has blasted through the initial goal in 6 hours but I'm sure they could use additional help.  If you can help, even if its just retweeting/posting Kort's tweet somewhere for visibility, please do so.  Kort and Mamma Ford are part of the Rapids family, No Fan Alone applies here as much as it does in the stadium.

Rapids Win The West , Play On Thanksgiving!

What a night!  The Rapids came out and slammed the door on LAFC's playoff hopes, then got help from Vancouver and (blech!) FSL to win the West!  They capped that off by announcing tonight that they will host MLS's first ever Thanksgiving Day playoff game against the winner of the Portland-Minnesota matchup.  Oh, and with the 3 points they set a new team record for points, clinched a Champions League spot, and won their 17th game, their most ever in the post-Shootout era.  Lots to cover today so let's get started.

• The Rapids absorbed pressure for the first 15 minutes, then struck hard.  A goal in the 18th forced Bradley to make a quick change in his formation, pulling a defender and putting Vela, returning from injury, into the game in the 30th minute.  The move didn't pay off.
• 2 minutes after LAFC's move, Warner(?!) made it 2-0 and the Rapids were off to the races.  It came off a corner and because the LAFC keeper palmed it away Captain Jack didn't get an official assist, but good work from him again.
• We were feeling pretty good at half, especially when Vancouver came back to score quickly after going down 1-0 to Seattle.
• A quick strike after halftime pretty much put LAFC out of the game.  They tried to make it interesting with closing it to 2 goals twice but never got closer.
• Though there was a bit of nervous tension in the stadium after they made it 4-2.  There's enough Rapids history that long-term fans couldn't feel fully comfortable.
• Badji has played himself into a contract next year with 4 goals in 5 games and 5 goals overall.  He got the the final regular season goal in this one.
• While the Rapids did give up two, the first was while the team was a bit confused.  After Lewis scored his second he was off the field with a bit of a knock.  He seemed to think he had been subbed out, or at least the referee was making him walk around the field to come back in.  The Rapids were confused and racing to get a sub on and while playing down a man LAFC scored.
• Once we got to the 80th minute I can't really tell you what happened in the game as I was watching the scores on my phone.  The Rapids finished first despite kicking off for the second half last (least amount of stoppage time) and there was a lot of cell phone data usage in the stadium as we waited (including the players on the field huddled around phones).
• Then, we celebrated.  Colorado has never won the West before now and I love that we did it at home with a fairly full stadium.  The players were already set to make a lap to acknowledge the fans at the end of the season but there was a lot more energy behind it as Western champions.  Padraig Smith and Wayne Brandt came over and hopped into the C38 section, it was a party.

Ok, moving ahead from the game itself to some of the other happenings:

• With the other results in the West all 6 Texas and California teams missed the playoffs.
• This does mean that FSL made the playoffs, sadly.  But in doing so they gave us the West so win either way.
• The playoffs this year are a bracket similar to March Madness.  They don't reseed after every round.  So we know that after the bye through the first round we will play the winner of Portland-Minnesota (Portland hosts).  That game takes place on Sunday Nov. 21.
• Tonight the league announced the schedule for the first round and the games the Revs and Rapids will host in the second round, and the Rapids will play on Thanksgiving Day at 2:30.
• Yeah, for a lot of people this probably sucks, but I like it.  Its a weird one-off that we're never going to experience again.  C38 is already planning a Thanksgiving-themed tailgate and my wife is fine with me going to the game (in exchange she's not going to make a full turkey dinner).  I'm looking forward to it.
• Should we win we are likely to host the conference final on Sat. Dec 4th.  The other conference final is on Sunday the 5th, but with New England not playing until the 30th I expect the Eastern Conference final to be on Sunday to give the winner of that match as much rest as possible.
• MLS Cup would be on Saturday Dec. 11th, should we make it that far.  If we do and we play anyone other than New England the Rapids would host.  If its New England we'd be travelling to Boston.

And one last thing, the Concacaf Champions League:

• With the result we clinched the "best" spot in the CCL we could.  Long story short, the spots in the CCL are ranked based on how the teams who had them in the past years performed.  The USA 3 spot, which is what we got by winning the West, is ranked the highest because of past performance.
• That puts us in Pot A, and we'll be drawn for a home-in-home series against one of the teams in Pot B.  We know 7 of the 8 teams in Pot B already.
• The series will be played in Feb./Mar. next year, exact dates have not yet been announced.
• Our possible opponents are Santos Laguna (Mexico), Santos (Costa Rica), Motagua (Honduras), Saprissa (Costa Rica), Cavaly (Haiti), CD Guastaoya (Guatemala), of Comunicaciones (Guatemala).
• The 8th possible opponent is Forge FC (Canada).  However they are also in the Canadian Championship final against Montreal, and the winner gets the "better" Canadian slot in Pot A.  So if Forge wins they would move up and I'm not sure who would fill the slot they're currently in, which comes from being a semifinalist in the CONCACAF league, which is a tournament among the smaller CONCACAF nations where the 4 semifinalists qualify for the Champions League.

So, that enough?  :D  Enjoy it Rapids fans, its been a long time coming!

Man of the Match: Jonathan Lewis.  2 goals.  Easy call.

WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS!!!!

Full game recap tomorrow night but for tonight we celebrate the team's first ever Western Conference Championship!  That also comes with a spot in next year's Concacaf Champions League.  Possible conference semifinal playoff dates for our first match would be Thanksgiving Day (the 25th), Sunday the 28th, or Tuesday the 30th.

First Place On The Line On Decision Day

For only the second time in their history the Rapids go into Decision Day with a shot at winning the West (2016 was the other).  This time the task is a little harder as not only do they need a win, but they need 2 other results (name Seattle and SKC not winning).  to break down the possibilities:

• Rapids lose - Rapids finish 3rd
• Rapids draw - Rapids finish 3rd unless SKC loses to FSL, then Rapids finish 2nd, clinch CCL spot
• Rapids win - 
• And Seattle and SKC win - Rapids finish 3rd
• One of Seattle and SKC win - Rapids finish 2nd, clinch CCL spot
• Neither Seattle or SKC win - Rapids win the West, clinch CCL spot

All games kickoff at the same time.   Seattle is in Vancouver while SKC is hosting FSL.

Of course what happens in those games only matters if Colorado takes care of business against LAFC tomorrow.  LAFC needs a win and a lot of help to make the playoffs (as does FSL, while Vancouver just needs a draw to clinch a playoff spot) so they're going to play desperate.  Kickoff tomorrow is scheduled for 4pm but will really be 4:25 as with all games kicking off simultaneously the nationally televised game will have 20 minutes of pregame before the games start.  The Rapids are yet again still only on Altitude.

Injury Report:

QUESTIONABLE: D Keegan Rosenberry

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM FINE: D Lalas Abubakar, M Collen Warner

If Abubakar or Warner were to get a yellow tomorrow they would only get fined as if they had reached a suspension, no actual suspension carries over into the playoffs or to game one of 2022.  Any red card assessed tomorrow would result in suspension for the first playoff game.

This isn't exactly the formation I expect but it was best the app could do.  We could see Beitashour instead of Esteves, or we could see Acosta play wing back again.  Regardless, there's no tomorrow and there's been a week of rest.  There's no reason not to start our best XI (other than Rosenberry) as we're guaranteed at least 2 weeks off after this and possibly more.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Badji and Barrios.  The Rapids will not make the fans sweat on this one, getting a multi-goal lead and then fending off LAFC's desperate attacks.  However things won't go quite as well as hoped in the other matches.  Vancouver gets the draw we're hoping for, allowing us to jump Seattle for 2nd, but KC puts a beating on FSL to win the West on the total wins tiebreaker over Colorado 18-17.

All To Play For On Sunday

Well we got the results we needed to make Sunday VERY interesting.  Seattle and the Galaxy tied on Monday and Austin is just wrapping up a beat down of SKC.  That leaves the standings as:

Seattle: 59 points

SKC: 58 points

Colorado: 58 points

all with just the final game on Decision Day to play.  All the games kickoff at the same time of 4pm MT on Sunday.

Colorado hosts LAFC, who is barely hanging on to a playoff chance

SKC hosts FSL, who depending on what happens in the game currently going on may be fighting for their life

Seattle goes to Vancouver, who's chances will also be greatly affected by FSL's result tonight

The scenarios are this:

Colorado wins the West;

With a win AND Seattle AND SKC drawing or losing

Colorado finishes 2nd:

With a win AND Seattle OR SKC drawing or losing

OR

With a draw AND SKC losing

Its going to be a crazy day...

Rapids Clinch Top 3 Finish, tie Best Season Ever

So I didn't watch this game, because I was at Fan EXPO Denver.  I did watch the 15 minute recap MLS posted to its website, but about the point where Badji scored I got bored and started reading The Athletic's article about Ryan Reynold's and Rob McElhenney's trip to Wrexham to see the team they bought, Wrexham FC.

As an aside, even though I'm a bit of a fan of Wrexham's rival Chester, I find that story really fun to follow.  The article is worth reading if you have a subscription.  Non-league football is more enjoyable to follow than Champions League football.  Yeah, I said it.

Back to the Rapids, the game was just dull.  Even the 15-minute recap struggled to find enough highlights to fill the time.  The important thing though is the Rapids got the 3 points.  instead of reviewing a dull game I didn't watch we'll just talk about what the result means.

• With the win we're guaranteed to finish in the top 3 of the West and the top 4 overall
• The 3 points tied the 2016 team for the most points in team history.  The Rapids go for a new record against LAFC on Sunday.
• Currently Colorado is in a tie with KC and Seattle for the top spot, but both teams have a game in hand.  The Rapids also lose all possible tie-breaking scenarios with those teams.
• What that means, in short, is that a win by either KC or Seattle in their final 2 games means we can't pass them regardless of our result by LAFC.  A win by both of them means we're locked into 3rd.
• Seattle kicks off against the Galaxy in about 15 minutes, then goes to Vancouver on Decision Day.  KC goes to Austin on Wednesday and hosts FSL on Sunday.
• If one of the teams doesn't win either game, we pass them with a win over LAFC.  If they lose both games we pass them with a draw.
• If we can pass one of them we would clinch a Concacaf Champions League spot.  If we don't pass either one of them, but if one of them or New England wins MLS Cup we get the extra CCL spot (we would also qualify if we won MLS Cup, obviously).
• Badji's goal gives him 4 on the season, That puts him into a 3-way tie for 4th on the team with Basset and Shinyashiki.  Both of them and the 3 ahead of Badji (Rubio, Lewis, and Barrios who leads with 8) have played a minimum of about 1250 minutes..  Badji has played 307.
• Barrios has a 3 goal lead over Lewis and Rubio for the Golden Boot, so that's probably locked down.  Barrios and Rubio are tied for second with 5 assists, but Jack Price is lapping the field with 12.  The real question is can Captain Jack get 1 more on Sunday, tying him with Barrios for the lead in goals + assists?
• Our possible first round opponent is still up in the air as Portland, Minnesota, Vancouver, the Galaxy, FSL, and LAFC are all separated by just 6 points and everyone other than Minnesota has 2 games left to play.  My money is still on us finishing 3rd and facing Minnesota or the Galaxy though.

Since I didn't watch the game I'm giving the Man of the Match to Robin Fraser, for taking us to (hopefully) our best season ever.

Quick & Dirty Houston Preview

Long but fun day at the Con.  Christopher Eccleston, aka the Ninth Doctor, has been the best guest so far.  Its good to get back to doing these type of things.  Anyway, the quick game preview.  Nobosy is suspended, Namli, Rosenberry, and Acosta are Questionable on the injury report.  Notes from practice have been that Namli and Acosta could be available this week, Rosenberry maybe by next week, certainly by the playoffs.

Nothing has changed in the standings since Thursday, the games that would impact us are all tomorrow.  Portland, who with a draw or loss would clinch 3rd for us, doesn't play this weekend.  We want to keep an eye on Philly and Nashville in regards to our overall standing for possible CCL positioning but no impact on our playoff position.  KC plays Minnesota finishing just as we kickoff, so we'll know if we've been eliminated from winning the West by a KC win as we start.  Seattle plays Vancouver on Monday so if we don't lose we'll still have a shot at 2nd until then.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Barrios and Badji.  Neither guy started on Wednesday and I'm sure Fraser is going to put out a full strength squad to try to get this done tomorrow and go into next week with a hope of playing for something more than 3rd, but not needing to play for anything if other results don't go our way.  Houston is a bad team, we should win this without having to sweat it out much at the end.

Rapids Reserves Hold Up Against Shield Winners

Fraser decided to go with a heavy rotation in last night's game, with arguably only 5 of our best XI starting (Yarbrough, Abubakar, Trusty, Rubio, and maybe Esteves).  The bad news was that Acosta, Namli, and Rosenberry all didn't make the trip due to injury (reports today are that the first two should be available in Houston while Rosenberry will be ready at least by the playoffs if not the LAFC game).  Despite that it took until the second half for the Shield winners, starting their first XI, to breakthrough and it took a quality goal to do it.  While the loss isn't great, and boy did we have a couple of chances to get a point, its good to see that our depth held up on a cold night in Massachusetts.

Random Musings:

• Lets discuss the standings first.  KC won last night, beating the Galaxy, which clinched a home playoff match for the Rapids.  Portland won, so we didn't clinch a top 3.  KC won and is now 3 points ahead of us and tied with Seattle, and KC has a game in hand.
• So what that means is that regardless of what we do on Sunday against Houston, a KC win this weekend and a Seattle win on Monday puts them out of reach (since we lose the tiebreakers against them).  If we get a draw or Portland doesn't win we'll clinch 3rd.  There's a very good chance that by Monday we'll be locked into 3rd and the LAFC game will be meaningless for us.
• Back to the game, the team held up well against "superior" opposition.  While the Revs won the stat battle they didn't get a good look at goal until the 70th minute, and the looks they did get we covered.
• Their goal came on a low-percentage shot (less than 10%) that Buchanan took from a tight angle and just beat Trusty and Yarbrough.  Neither of them did anything wrong, it was one of those cases where you have to tip your hat and say "well done, you beat us).
• Meanwhile the Rapids had a couple of great looks and couldn't convert.  Sadly the best was probably Cole Bassett ho had it center of the box with space to shoot and managed a slow roller to Taylor.  Not what we needed there.
• Drew Moor's perfect record was broken in the 32nd game of the season.  Until last night, his first start of the season, we had won every game he appeared in and not given up a goal when he was on the field.  It was his 200th appearance as a Rapid though.
• Beitashour was solid on the right, for not having a lot of playing time.  I'm not suggesting he should be getting more, but its nice to know he's ready to step in if necessary, given that Fraser did not think he was ready at this time last year.
• There was another chance at the death that just didn't roll our way.  A cross in front of the goal managed to be a few inches in front of Badji and a few inches behind Lewis, either one of which would have had a tap-in.
• Now the schedule gets easier, with a long-eliminated Houston on Sunday and then a week until we get LAFC at home.  Its unlikely LAFC will be eliminated by them but they may be on life support.
• I've got tickets to Fan EXPO Denver all weekend, so I may or may not get a game preview up before Sunday.  Depends on how tired I am after the con tomorrow and Saturday night.  I won't get to see much, if any, of the game on Sunday as it kicks off at the same time as the keynote guest, William Shatner, goes on stage.

Man of the Match: Auston Trusty.  He was a rock in defense, breaking up a number of NE attacks and being a sweeper in front of Yarbrough.  As clearly the most improved player of the season he has a real shot at defensive player of the year.

Reverse Jameson Night

I'm not sure what a reverse Jameson Night is exactly, maybe drinking after the game?  Regardless the Rapids flew out to Boston today to face New England tomorrow night.  The Revs wrapped up the Shield over the weekend but are 1 win away from setting a league record for points.  Meanwhile the Rapids need 1 point to clinch a top 3 finish and 3 to keep up with SKC and Seattle.  So this game is both not really important and very important for both teams.  Kickoff is at 5pm tomorrow.

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: M Collen Warner

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan, M Jack Price

The injury report is still clear so hopefully that means Namli and Rosenberry will be available tomorrow.  But they weren't listed on Saturday and were unavailable so who knows.

This is a best guess based on who played this weekend and who didn't and knowing that maybe we won't go 100% into this one with a much more winnable game this weekend.  But at this point there's not much that would surprise me in the lineup.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  New England is the best team in the league, but with the lack of crossover games this season we don't really know how good they are.  The West has a better record in interconference games so far this season, and this will be the only time (until MLS Cup possibly) that New England will play a playoff-caliber team from the West).  I think we're going to find out the Revs are good, but that their large lead over the rest of the league has been slightly inflated by the weakness of the East and it will be a pretty even matchup.

Rapids Clinch Playoffs, On Verge Of Clinching Home Game

A strong performance on Saturday night booked Colorado's spot in the playoffs.  Combined with the other results we were a late Galaxy goal way from clinching a home playoff match.  That will come in due time.  For a battle between 3rd and 4th place Portland was awfully flat the whole match and it never felt like they were going to win this game, but given the Rapids track record this year it wasn't until the second goal that you felt like they weren't going to give points away.  One of the better all-around games of the season.

Random Musings:

• The big disappointment was seeing Namli out injured again, and Rosenberry injured.  I think this is the first  start Rosenberry has missed since arriving in Colorado for non-COVID reasons.  Meanwhile our million dollar DP has made 5 of 31 starts this season.
• It felt like a big night in C38.  From the opening whistle there was an increased energy in 117 that we hadn't had in a while.
• Somehow Dominique Badji has turned into a great backup striker.  3 goals in 2 starts and 225 total minutes since he returned to Commerce City.  And its hard to believe at times but he just turned 29 years old last weekend, so he could be around for a while.  He's already moved up to a tie with Wolde Harris for 6th all-time in career scoring for the Rapids.
• Portland had one shot with an Expected Goals of 5.52%.  Everything else was under 5%.  Yarbrough had an easy night.
• I'm not sure how much Rubio really knew about his shot that went in.  Galvan's cross was headed by a Timbers' defender right onto Rubio's head and into the goal.  To be fair to Diego he did appear to try to put some force behind it but it was a bang-bang play and I think he could have just stood there and he would have scored.
• Ok, lets talk playoffs.  The Rapids have clinched no worse than 5th place.  With 1 more point, or a point lost by Portland and the Galaxy they'll clinch a top 3 finish in the West and a home playoff match.  (Portland or the Galaxy dropping a point would clinch 4th and a home match).  I expect to get that done no later than this weekend, maybe by Wednesday night.
• With 4 more points 9or points dropped by Nashville and Philly) they'll clinch a top 4 overall finish in the league.  This is important because the top 3 will all get a Concacaf Champions League position, and if the MLS Cup winner has already qualified for the CCL, the 4th best team would get a CCL spot.
• Looking at the remaining schedules for Seattle and Kansas City I think its unlikely we catch one (or both) of them for a top 2 spot.  Seattle shouldn't struggle to get 7 points in their last 3 games, which would put them out out our reach.  KC will probably get 9 points, which means the best we could do is tie them and KC has the tiebreaker.  With 4 games we need KC to drop at least two games to have any real chance of catching them.
• Of course doing any of that requires us to beat New England on a cold Boston Wednesday night.  The Revs wrapped up the Shield over the weekend and have almost nothing left to play for, but a win in one of their final 2 games would give them the all-time points record for MLS.
• We don't know yet which day the Rapids would host a playoff match, but it will be one of Nov 20th, 21st, or 23rd.

Man of the Match: Braian Galvan.  2 assists made this an easy pick.  He's settling in now in MLs and I'm really looking for a big year from him in 2022.

Rapids Have 3rd Chance To Clinch Playoff Spot

Ok, we had a chance to clinch a playoff spot last Saturday in Sandy and we saw how that went.  Then we had a chance to do it Wednesday night and gave it away.  3rd time is the charm, right?  If we beat Portland tomorrow night if we draw and Vancouver loses or if Minnesota or the Galaxy don't win we clinch.  We can also clinch even if we lose if the Galaxy lose and Vancouver doesn't win (Vancouver doesn't win and either the Galaxy lose or Minnesota and LAFC draw.  Also if we win And Minnesota and Vancouver don't win and the Galaxy lose we clinch a home playoff gamed.

Got all that?  Really what matters here is a win really puts us in the driver's seat for a top 3 finish, and draw keeps us in good shape for that.  A loss and its hold on to your butts time as Portland will be within 3 points with an easier schedule since they don't have to travel and play the Revs.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm and it sounds like Richard Fleming will be back in the booth from his health and safety protocol absences the last two games.

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: M Collen Warner

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan

The injury report is clean so hopefully that means Namli and Rosenberry will be available tomorrow.

If Rosenberry can't go I think we see Kelly get the start.  That may cause some knock on changes if Fraser feels like he needs defensive help (like not playing Namli in front of him).  If Namli can't go Barrios will IMO.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Trusty.  Portland's offense has been a bit better than ours but our defense is much better.  The Timbers are coming off a crushing defeat at home to their rival Vancouver, and I don't think you bounce back from that by coming to altitude on short rest.  Colorado hasn't had to travel and had a couple of core guys (Abubakar, Namli) get some rest on Wednesday.  I think that's enough to make the difference in this one as the Rapids book their spot in the playoffs.

We've Seen This Story Before

The Rapids got a lead at home, and gave it up late...again.  A draw was probably a fair result for the game based on the play (and its what I predicted) but you hate to drop points like that.  Seattle came in looking for a scoreless draw or maybe to steal 3 points on a smash and grab and they got what they wanted.  With the draw the chances of catching Seattle for first in the West are fairly limited.

Random Musings:

• Namli was a late scratch from the lineup due to tightness, which isn't great since he's already missed so much time.  We only have 4 games to get him synced with the rest of the team before the playoffs.
• Jack Price does not get enough publicity from the national press.  He's the best dead ball specialist in the league and is 3rd overall in assists, pretty much all from free kicks like last night.  He needs 2 more to tie Terry Cooke for 2nd most assists all-time in Rapids history.
• Danny Wilson was named in the MLS mid-week team of the week, and he did play really well, but he was at sixes and sevens on Seattle's goal.  He tracked the play the whole way and covered nothing but empty space the whole time.  Doing that pulled Trusty and Esteves out of position and led to 3 Sounders being 5 Rapids.
• But the goal really comes back to Rosenberry's injury.  The prior game in Seattle are the first minutes he missed all season, after playing most of the 2020 minutes and all the 2019 minutes.  Because of that we don't really plan for him to sub out and it hurt us.  We moved Acosta to RB and he's not a RB.  He was beaten on the goal first with the pass, and then by Chu in the box where he got separation for the cross.
• It was an interesting lineup last night with Acosta at LB and Shinyashiki in midfield.  I'm guessing part of that was due to Namli's late injury.  My bet is that Shinyashiki was slated to start up top where Badji played but moved back into Namli's spot.
• Luckily Vancouver had a late comeback against Portland last night.  The Timbers appeared to be on their way to a win that would have put them within 3 points of us going into Saturday night's head to head matchup.  Now they're 6 points back so a win on Saturday puts them 9 back with 3 to play.  They would have the tiebreaker (total wins) so we don't lock up a top 3 finish with a win, but we do get to a point that it would take losing the rest of our games while somebody else won all of their's.
• A win this weekend would finally clinch a playoff spot though.
• SKC is even on points with us but has a game in hand now.  They play Seattle on Saturday so the result of that one should tell us who we might be able to catch for second.

Man of the Match: Dominique Badji.  Pressed into starting service he came up with a goal.  What more can you ask for?

Last Shot At First Place

Currently the Rapids are 6 points back of Seattle with 5 games to play.  A loss or draw tomorrow night means there are 4 games left and we have to make up at least 1.5 PPG.  That's not happening.  A win at least puts first place still in play, making up 3 points in 4 games is possible.  Anything less than a win and we need to start thikning about 2nd place (and holding off Portland for 3rd).

Oh, and our former player, Nicolas Benezet, just added some fuel to the fire.  He "can't wait to play in front of his ex-fans".  Well, that Rapids reject will be lucky if Lalas doesn't put him on his ass in the first few minutes.  Kickoff for this suddenly spicy match is at 7pm tomorrow at the Dick.

No update on injuries from the team yet:  EDIT: No injuries listed in the media game notes

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED: F Diego Rubio (yellow card accumulation) 

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: M Collen Warner

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan

Missing Rubio isn't the worst thing in the world, he hasn't exactly set the world on fire this season.  Otherwise we should be at full strength.

The back 4 could be mixed up by Trusty starting and one of the three not named Rosenberry sitting, but otherwise I think that's the likely look.  I really hope we go with this 4 man backline, there's no point in playing one of the front 6 out of position or sitting one of them to play Galvan to force the 5-4-1.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  Sadly I don't think the Rapids have it in them to make the West a race after what happened Saturday.  Seattle is a better team at this point, especially when the going gets tough (they're 0.5 PPG better against playoff teams than we are).  Colorado will put up a good fight but in the end the focus should be on 2nd, and holding on to 3rd, which makes next Saturday's match the most important one left on the schedule.  Beating Portland should all but lock in hosting in the first round and avoiding a trip to Seattle in the second round.

Rapids Fail To Show In Utah...Again

Stop me if you've heard this before.  The Rapids go to Utah, come out flat, go down by at least a goal, stage a furious attempt at a comeback in the second half, it turns into an end-to-end game, and Colorado loses, probably by multiple goals.  Yep, almost every damn time we go to Sandy we choke and the did it again Saturday night.  A 3-1 loss meant the team left the Rocky Mountain Cup in Utah and also failed to clinch a playoff spot.  They'll need to bounce back quickly with the upcoming schedule.

Random Thoughts:

• I think Fraser is overthinking things at this point.  Leaving Acosta and Kaye out of the 18 and starting Barrios on the bench is a poor setup for a winnable game.  I recognize we have 5 games in 13 days and the Seattle game midweek could be huge, but its a lot less huge now that we lost in Sandy.  Sometimes you need to focus on winning the points in front of you and then worry about what's next, and that's before we get into the rivalry aspects of this match.
• Likewise his continued insistence on this 4-5-1 seems odd, considering we always play better once we switch back to a flat back 4.
• But that could be due to our slow starts.  Maybe its not the formation but just an inability to really show urgency until the second half.
• Regardless, this loss wasn't all on Fraser.  Abubakar and Trusty had horrendous nights in center defense.  On the first FSL goal Trusty badly whiffs on the ball letting it go through his legs and Abubakar had lost his man leading to the goal.  On the second Trusty has plenty of time to play a ball upfield but hits a lazy pass that's easily intercepted and it comes right back past him while Lalas loses his man again.  On the last, and t be fair the team was pushed up to try to get a tying goal, Lalas misjudges a ball and his man is off to the races.  Just horrible matches from both of them.
• Colorado essentially had no offense in the first half.  They were more dangerous in the second, getting one back and it felt like for a bit a second might come, but then FSL got its legs under them again and shut things down.
• Along those lines, Cole Bassett since mid-July, has had 2 assists, 1 PK goal, and one game with more than one shot on target in 11 starts and 4 sub appearances.  I know he's got a ton of skill, but he's just not starting material right now.
• Had Rubio scored he would have broken a 3-way tie with Casey and Cummings for the Rapids leading scorer in the Rocky Mountain Cup.  They all have 3 RMC goals.
• Meanwhile, sadly, Drew Moor has joined those two and Pablo on the list with 6 RMC losses in their career (Pablo also lost twice as Rapids coach).
• Colorado really dropped a chance to make up ground on the rest of the West this weekend.  Seattle, SKC, and Portland all lost as well so a win would have put Colorado 12 points ahead of 5th, 8 ahead of 4th, and 2 ahead of SKC in 3rd with a chance to tie Seattle with a win on Wednesday.
• The Rapids now go into a 3 game stretch where they play 3 of the top 5 teams (not counting themselves) in the league in a week.  Wednesday against Seattle, where anything but a win all but eliminates them from winning the West (with a loss/draw they would be 9/6 points back with 4 to play).  Then a huge 6 pointer against Portland on Saturday where a win could put them up more than the Timbers could make up in the last 3 game but a loss could have them slip to 4th,, depending on what happens Wednesday.  finally a trip across the country to New England who might be in position to win the Shield that night (if they haven't won it already by then).
• Even with the doom and gloom the Rapids will make the playoffs and almost certainly will host the first round game.  Right now they're still 2 points ahead of the pace FSL and the Galaxy are playing at in 5th place.

Man of the Match: Younes Namli.  Not much to choose from here so I went with the goal scorer.  With that goal the Rapids became the last team in MLS this season to get a goal or an assist from a DP.  Only took 29 games.

Time To Win A Cup

There should be no difficulty getting up for this one.  The Rocky Mountain Cup is on the line tomorrow night in Sandy.  Winner takes all, a draw means the Cup will not be coming back home with the team.  Since both sides have won a game but FSL won by multiple goals they win the total goals tiebreaker in the case of a 4-4 tie on points.  Also with a win tomorrow, or a lot of other combined results, the Rapids would clinch a playoff spot and be pretty certain they would host a playoff game.  Kickoff in Utah is at 7:30 and while the game is on Altitude it is also on KSL in Utah, which streams their feed online for feed and should be available in the Denver area.  Richard Fleming has announced he won't be available for this game or Wednesday night's home game so we'll see how Tyler Maun does paired with Balboa.

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED: D Danny Wilson (red card against Minnesota)

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, F Diego Rubio

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION:  D Auston Trusty, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan, M Collen Warner

Obviously Wilson being suspended isn't great but at least we have two solid center backs available.  Both Acosta and Kaye have returned from their international duties.  Acosta did not play on Wednesday night.  Sunday night in Panama he took a hit to the head that left it wrapped in bandages (no concussion issues have been reported) and on Wednesday night he still had a notable bandage on the point of contact.  Hopefully that doesn't limit him tomorrow.  Kaye played the last 30 minutes or so for Canada on Wednesday night.  I think he'll be available to start.

This is partially what I hope to see.  A return to the 4-3-3/4-5-1 that works better for us than the 5-4-1 we've been trying to use.  Pushing Rosenberry inside to put Galvan in front of him in place of another pure attacker isn't what we need.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Barrios.  FSL actually has a slightly better offense than we do, but a much worse defense.  (16 more goals given up than Colorado in 28 games).  I hate to predict a win against FSl, especially in Sandy, given all the ways we've been burned over the years.  This team however feels like one that will build on its success last week and the massive comeback to win the series in Sandy last year and come out with 3 points, a clinched playoff spot, and the Rocky Mountain Cup!