The 5-3-2 Doesn't Work

Sorry for the delay in the review of Wednesday's 3-1 loss to SKC but I wanted to do something different with this post and I didn't have time to do the research until now.  For the 3rd time in 4 games the Rapids lined up in a 5-3-2 (or maybe 3-5-2) formation.  And for the 3rd time in 4 games the opposition abused us putting up high numbers in possession, shots, and shots in goal.  In particular we saw, once again, that the overlap between Rosenberry and Abubakar is a weak spot with KC consistently attacking that hole.  In general Abubakar had a horrible game and left Rosenberry scrambling on multiple occasions.

Rather than break down the goals and talk about individual performances I wanted to take a step back and look at what's happened lately with the Rapids defense, because it has been quite poor. So I went back and analyzed the numbers from all 9 games this season.  In 6 of the games we started with a "standard" 4 man back line.  In 3 we started with a 3 man back line and two wingbacks or a 5 man backline, depending on how you want to describe it.  Now caveats about small sample size apply with only 9 games total split 2:1 between 2 formations, but I do think they show some bad indicators.

Opposition possession:

4-man line: Avg: 51.4% Low: 37.4% High: 65.7%

5-man line: Avg: 55.8% Low: 53.9% High: 57.5%

Average opposition shots:

4-man line: Avg: 11.8 Low: 8 High: 21

5-man line: Avg: 17.8 Low: 14 High: 22

Average opposition shots on goal:

4-man line: Avg: 4.8 Low: 3 High: 7

5-man line: Avg: 6 Low: 5 High: 7

Despite having an extra defender in the game we're giving up more shots and shots on goal with 5 defenders.  We're also giving up more possession, though that's less surprising as pulling off a midfielder for a defender would make it harder to keep possession.  The high opposition possession and opposition shots and the second highest opposition shots on goal happened in the recent Dallas game, which was the game after we tried the 5-man line the first time against LAFC.

Clearly something has changed in our defense in the last 4 games.  The averages in these stats for the 5-man line are almost higher than the high values for these stats in the 4-man line.  While we won 2 of the 4 games, they were against the worst team in the West and the 3rd worst team in the East, and the latter required Yarbrough to stand on his head to get us the win.  As soon as we hit any quality, like LAFC or SKC, they ripped us apart.

Quite simply, the 5-3-2 doesn't work.  I'm not sure what Fraser is trying to accomplish by switching us from the 4-5-1 we've used since he took over.  Is this due to feeling like he needs to get Abubakar, Wilson, and Trusty playing time?  If so, he really doesn't.  Lalas has not looked good this season and can justifiably be benched in favor of starting Trusty and Wilson on a 4-man back line.  Is this a response to Namli's long-term injury?  Is the thought that without him we're going to be conceding possession and we need to switch to a counter0attacking style and add another defender to help with the amount of attack we're welcoming?   Its not working if that's the case.

This is also not a roster built for this formation.  We've spent 2 years stocking up on wingers.  Barrios, Lewis, Benezet, Galvan, and Shinyashiki (along with the afore-mentioned Namli) were all expected to get time on the wing this year, but the 5-3-2 that Fraser is using only allows one of them to start at a more central forward position along-side Rubio.  That's a lot of talent (and money) being left on the bench in order to force the roster into this formation.

Against Seattle next weekend we need to see our standard back 4 and 2 wingers.  Giving Seattle the amount of possession and space that the current formation has allowed the likes of Cincinnati is suicide.  The Sounders will eat us alive in front of the biggest crowd in two years.  Beating the top team in the league is a big enough hill without weighting ourselves down with poor lineup choices.

Man of the Match: None.  Not because everyone played poorly (though a couple did) but because everyone was so meh that nobody stood out.

We're Going To See How Good The Rapids Are

The Rapids have started out hot, playing at 2 PPG.  But as good as that looks the reality is that we've only played one team in a playoff position (Houston).  That will change as in the next 12 days we play KC, currently 2nd in the West on points, and Seattle, the Supporters Shield leader.  The tougher of the two games is tomorrow night, being on the road in KC on short rest.  Seattle is a tougher team but we'll be at home after 11 days off and with the full 4th of July crowd behind us.  Kickoff is at 6:30pm and TV is what it is.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

QUESTIONABLE: D Steven Beitashout

Along with that list I wouldn't be shocked to see Irwin start if the knock Yarbrough picked up during Saturday's game got worse after the adrenaline wore off.  There's been no reports of that but it wouldn't be a surprise.

Barrios and Rubio came off at halftime in Cincinnati, presumably so they could be fresh enough to start on KC.  This assumes Fraser goes with the 4-5-1 and not the 5-3-2 formation.  The young guys (which, to be fair, is almost everyone) can likely start two games on short rest after the break we just had and knowing there's an extra half-week before our next game.  Shinyashiki and Abubakar can spell a couple of guys as well.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  KC and Colorado have fairly equivalent offenses but Colorado has a better defense.  The Rapids are on the road though so I think that makes the teams pretty equal.  The teams will run out of steam late due to the short rest, and settle for sharing the points.

Yarbrough Stands On His Head To Get 3 Points

These are the type of games the Rapids usually lose.  Out possessed 54-46, outshot 22-7, outshot on goal 7-2, out cornered 6-4, and yet the final score was Colorado 2, Cincinnati 0.  Part of that was making sure Cinci didn't get high percentage shots, but a lot of it was Yarbrough's great night.  Against another, better, team we probably don't get all 3 points but the Rapids did what they needed to do on a hot and humid night on the road, which is all you can ask for.

Random Thoughts:

• Really the expected goals for this match is crazy.  FCC had an xG of 2.1, Colorado had 0.4.  That is a bit deceptive though as almost a full goal of Cinci's expected goals came off of Locadia's miss in the 93rd minute, a shot that even had it been scored wouldn't have been in time to change the outcome.
• Somehow both Rubio's and Lewis' goals had just over a 10% chance of being scored, which makes me question how they determine that a bit.  Lewis seemed orders of magnitude harder than Rubio's.
• When I saw the lineup I thought Fraser had out-thought himself again, going back to the 5-3-2/3-5-2 that was disastrous against LAFC.  Putting 6 defenders out against one of the worst offenses in the league seemed unnecessary.  But it worked.  We saw an improvement in the defensive marking compared to the mess in the LAFC game.  Cinci still got hits shots, lots of them, but Yarbrough bailed out the defense when those shots were too good.
• I was surprised at the halftime subs of Rubio and Barrios for Benezet and Lewis, until I w as reminded that our next game against KC is on Wednesday, not next Saturday.  In that way the lineup decisions worked even more in our favor.  We take a defensive stance on the road, get an early goal against a bad offense, and then can sit back and conserve energy while defending.  The second goal takes the weight off even further.
• That said, it could have easily backfired.  Cinci came quite close to making a game of this.
• You could tell Fraser was worried it might be getting away from us as he put the closer, Drew Moor, in with 20 minutes to play instead of closer to 5 like normal (also getting Abubakar some rest for Wednesday).  It worked as the game settled down and then Lewis scored 2 minutes later.  
• Outside of the goal Lewis and Benezet did very little.  I don't know if that was the game plan with how we were sitting back or if it was poor play, but we need more, especially from Benezet.
• I didn't know we were allowed to sub Sam Vines out.  Does he even know how to come off during a game?  This was the first time in a competitive match for the Rapids that Vines started but did not finish the game.
• With the Rapids at 2 points a game through this point in the season that means the Bodmer line is now at 1.08 pts/game.  A reminder, the Bodmer Line (named after former Class VI Grand Poobah Mark Bodmer, who suggested it to me) is the number of points per game the Rapids need to earn over the rest of the season to get to the average number of points the last playoff team (the 7th placed team) has had in a 34 game season (the seasons from 2011-2019).  That average is between 43 and 44, so the target is 44.
• Interesting note, if you take the 2020 results and use the PPG of the 7th placed teams to figure out how many points they would have had in a 34 game season and include those in the average it raises the average a bit but not over 44.
• Next up, SKC on Wednesday in KC.  KC is 2nd on points but 5th on PPG.  Colorado is 3rd on points but 2nd on PPG (and 3rd overall in the league).  A big measuring stick to sew where we're at against a top team.
• Not related to this game but there are reports from Chile that Colo-Colo has their sights set on brining Diego Rubio home.  Rubio got his professional debut with his childhood team in 2010 and apparently he was hoping to go on loan there during the offseason but FIFA regulations got in the way.  However a Santiago newspaper is reporting that Colo-Colo doesn't have the funds to pay a notable transfer fee for Rubio and with him under contract through next season its unlikely the Rapids will let him go cheap.  So this may be a lot of talk by Colo-Colo so their fans think they're trying, but with no intention of following through.  Something long time Rapids fans might be familiar with.
• That said, if we can get 7 figures (especially if its not just $1M) for him, we should sell.

Man of the Match:  William Yarbrough.  This is a no brainer.  Had a couple of huge saves.  Went down hard in the second half and Irwin was getting ready to sub in but he shrugged off the knock, let Abubaker take the ensuing goal kick while he walked it off, and then stoned Cincinnati almost immediately after.  There are some fans who think there's no difference between Yarbrough and Irwin, but after a match like that there's a clear #1 and #2.

RIP Frank Bonner

I was going to make a WKRP joke this week, seeing that we're making our first trip to Cincinnati tomorrow, but Frank Bonner, who played sales manager Herb Tarlek on the comedy, passed away yesterday.  It felt better just to acknowledge his great portrayal of a late 79's/early 80's greasy sales guy instead.  See you Herb, hopefully the Ferryman Funeral Home takes good care of you.

Tomorrow night the Rapids get their first look at Cinci's new gorgeous (by all accounts) home, TQL Stadium.  Kickoff is at 5:30pm and TV is what it is.  It sounds like everyone is healthy other than the news about Namli and everyone is currently available and not on international duty.  That could change in a couple of weeks as Acosta, Bassett, Lewis, Trusty, and Vines were all named to the U.S.'s provisional 60-man roster for the Gold Cup today.  That will be cut down before camp opens and down to 26 before the tournament starts (and teams aren't even limited to the names they submitted today) so odds are only one or two of that list will make the final roster, most likely Vines (almost certainly) and Acosta or Bassett.

The big concern going into tomorrow is that for a season plus the Rapids have been lousy after a long hiatus.  We looked awful at the MLS Is Back tournament, we lost big to FSL when we restarted at home after the tournament, we were pretty ugly after our enforced COVID break, our playoff game was forgettable, and starting the season this year wasn't great.  now we're coming off a two week break and we'll see if Fraser has solved this ongoing problem.  Short of being at home there's not a better matchup, playing a Cincinnati team that has yet to find its legs pretty much in its whole existence.  But that also screams trap game.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

With the Namli injury I think 8 of our starting 11 are solidly locked in at this point.  The only positions up for grabs are the winger opposite Barrios and which 2 of our 3 top center backs start.  Right now I think Fraser sticks with what he's been using and starts Shinyashiki and Trusty, but I could see Lewis and Abubakar.  Regardless I'm pretty sure Wilson starts.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Bassett and Rubio.  Cincinnati's defense is awful, giving up 2.5 goals a game.  Our offense is pretty solid so I expect to put up goals tomorrow.  I don't think it will be the walkover we hope for though, given our difficulties after a layoff.  The home side will keep it interesting until the end.

Namli Out Long Term, Yapi Loaned

Its been pretty dead on the Rapids front during the international break other than Acosta's good second half against Mexico.  Today though we got some bad news.  The injury that Namli has been fighting was worse than we feared.  Last week he had surgery on his ankle in Amsterdam and will miss 12-16 weeks in recovery.  That puts his return, at earliest, right after Labor Day.  That's, at minimum 14 of the remaining 27 games this season.  Realistically probably more like 17 or so games before he could be back as a starter.

Obviously this is a significant loss for the team, especially with the likelihood of missing some of  Acosta/Bassett/Vines/Lewis to the Gold Cup and World Cup Qualifiers.  That said, the team has been performing well without him since he was injured in early May.  At this point 4 of our midfield 5 starters are essentially locked in with Price, Acosta, and Bassett running the triangle in the middle and Barrios holding down one wing.  That leaves Shinyashiki, Benezet, Lewis, and Galvan to battle for the other wing spot.

Namli was originally signed on a 2-year loan from FC Krasnodar, which will be up at the end of the season.  I think, for all intents and purposes, Namli's time in Colorado is done.  He may be able to bolster the team for the final run of games  (and any playoff run) this season but otherwise I don't see a string case to reinvest in him going forward.  While he clearly has skill, he just doesn't fit in this team at this point.  If we play him at the 10 then the only combination that works behind him is Price and Acosta, and even that group leaves us defensively vulnerable.  He could be an easy starter on the wing, but that's a lot of money to pay for a position that, as you can see, we're very deep at.  I think the best move is to see out the loan, thank him for his service, and let him go while we reinvest his salary in a position where we need more help.

I do wonder, if the team plays well over the next 3 months, if it makes sense to cut his loan off early and let him return to Russia in the summer window.  If that means we free up salary or an international spot it might be worth taking the hit to our depth.  Regardless, unlike Aigner or Gashi, I can't fault the FO too much for this move.  As I mentioned before, Namli can clearly play well enough to stand out in MLS.  Maybe not at "DP" level for sure, but he showed why the club signed him.  Most European players, especially top players, need time to settle in when they get to MLS and Namli never got that.  His 2020 was thrown into complete disarray due to COVID and now he's missing at least half of 2021 due to an injury.  Those aren't things the FO could have foreseen.  We never got to see Namli fully integrated into MLS.

While we're talking about the roster, Darren Yapi was loaned to the Springs today.  That's 8 players now loaned out getting time in Colorado Springs or Phoenix.

Colorado's Talent Beats Dallas' Skill

Its not often in Rapids history that our talent carries to a win through bad play but Saturday night that's what happened.  Dallas was the gang that couldn't shoot straight while the Rapids took advantage of the few chances they had early until Dallas wilted late and we were able to control the end of the game.  Colorado managed to weather the storm during the game and take advantage of some well placed balls to get the lead.  Once Dallas was chasing they eventually ran out of gas.  A 3-0 win is really unfair to both teams as it could have easily been 5-4 for either team.

Random Thoughts:

• I think I'm underselling how poor Dallas' shooting was.  Until our second goal right before half Dallas' expected goals was around 0.8 while ours was 0.2, and we were up 1-0.  With the exception of the ~5 minutes between our second goal before halftime and Yarbrough's huge save off Jara in the 47' Dallas led in expected goals all game.
• I'm not sure why our defense seemed at 6's and 7's all night but Dallas was finding room by making diagonal runs through Trusty and, more often, Wilson.  It felt like Danny was having a tough time with his situational awareness on Saturday and would loose track of guys running behind him.
• Acosta's absence in midfield was felt again.  It was hard for us to get anything going through the center of the pitch on offense, and on defense Dallas didn't hit too much resistance.  Arguably Acosta is our MVP so far, just because of how badly we play when he's not in midfield.
• Seeing Mezquida and Lewis get the start over Benezet shows  how far he's fallen in the pecking order.  He looked good when he came off the bench but we've spent $1.8M on 565 minutes  over 17 games.
• Good to see the likes of Galvan and Ford on the bench, and Lewis starting.  The injury report wasn't as bad as we feared.
• Diego Rubio.  *sigh*  He was given a gift chance of a PK and put it right where everyone, including Dallas' keeper, expected him to.  He needs to step up his game.
• That did set up Trusty's "goal" which was worth it just for the celebration, even if credited (correctly) as an own goal.
• Classy of Barrios not to celebrate too much when scoring against his old team.
• The Rapids are off now until June 19th for the Euros and Copa America (maybe), along with the Nations League final taking place this weekend over at Mile High.  We restart in Cincinnati on the 19th and, well, we know how restarts went last season.

Man Of The Match: William Yarbrough.  He had two huge saves in the second half to prevent Dallas from getting back in the match and had to come up with 6 saves total to get the shutout.