Alright, alright, alright

Its our first trip to Austin tomorrow as we face the expansion team looking for revenge from the 3-1 loss they gave us in our home opener.  It won't be easy as the Rapids are a greatly diminished side, though this is the last game before we get reinforcements.  Acosta, Lewis, and Vines are still with the Nats (and Vines is likely never coming back anyway), Wilson is suspended, and Rubio is recovering from injury.  New acquisition Mark-Anthony Kaye has been at the gold Cup with Canada but they were eliminated by Mexico last night.  Kaye played the full match and is unlikely to contribute much if he even makes the gameday roster tomorrow, but could be available off the bench.  Dominique Badji will be available though.  Kickoff is at 7pm.  Tomorrow is also the 700th day since Altitude was removed from Comcast and DISH.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

International Callups:

USA: D Sam Vines, M Kellyn Acosta, M Jonathan Lewis

Canada: M Mark-Anthony Kaye

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED: D Danny Wilson

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: M Jack Price

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: F Diego Rubio

This is more of a guess than I usually make.  I expect Rubio won't be ready to start but he'll be an early second half sub if we need him.  I'm not really sure who's going to play LB with Wilson out.  I expect Trusty to slide back inside and somebody (Beitashour?  Anderson?  Kelly?) to take over, but we could leave Trusty out there and give Ford or Moor a start at CB, though that would be surprising.  What we do on the back line will largely drive our midfield trio, though I'm sure Price and Bassett will start.  The only question is if Bassett will be the playmaker with somebody like Warner behind him or we get Mezquida again.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rubio.  Austin does not have a good offense.  If you subtract the 3 goals we gave them in our opener they've scored 7 goals in the other 13 games they've played.  They actually have a 1 goal better defense than we do, but again, that prior head-to-head matchup is the reason for that.  (In 3 games we've given up 9 goals, in the other 11 we've given up 7).  This is probably going to be ugly soccer played in heat with a diminished team and we'll be happy to get out of Texas with  a draw.  Stealing 3 points with a 1-0 win wouldn't be out of the question but not expected.

Welcome Back Mr. Badji

A familiar name is back on Colorado's roster.  The Rapids sent $50K in GAM to Nashville to bring Dominique Badji back to the Front Range for the rest of the season.  If he sticks around and re-signs for 2022 Nashville will get another $50K.

I don't need to describe Badji, anyone who's been a fan for more than a couple of years saw him get his start here.  He hasn't changed much since then, still fast, still questionable accuracy.  He's going to be more of a true backup striker to Rubio than Shinyashiki has been, and it gives Fraser an option off the bench to change out style as Badji likes to use his speed to get behind the back line on through balls.

Badji originally left Colorado for Dallas in the middle of 2018 in exchange for Kellyn Acosta. The rest of that trade was an international slot to Dallas through 2019, and Dallas and Colorado swapped first round picks in 2019.  Colorado also got Dallas' second round pick in 2019.   Lets lay out exactly what happened to all the pieces of this trade.

What Dallas got:

The international slot was used for 1.5 seasons by Dallas and returned, its off the board

Badji - 38 appearances for Dallas, 3660 minutes, 8 goals, 4 assists

Rapids 2019 pick, used by Dallas - Turned out to be the 4th pick, with which Dallas took Callum Montgomery.  After two years in Dallas they traded him to Minnesota.  So far he hasn't appeared in a MLS match in 2.5 seasons.

What Colorado got:

Kellyn Acosta - 68 appearances for Colorado, 5809 minutes, 7 goals, 7 assists

Dallas 2019 1st round pick, used by Colorado - Turned out to be the #15 pick, traded with $100K of GAM to Chicago for the #5 pick, used to select Andre Shinyashiki

Andre Shinyashiki - 59 appearances for Colorado, 3419 minutes, 13 goals, 4 assists, 2019 ROTY

Dallas 2019 2nd round pick, used by Colorado - Turned out to be the #39 pick, traded to Toronto for Clint Irwin

Clint Irwin - 15 appearances, 1260 minutes, 1 clean sheet

The Rapids turned Dom Badji, an international slot for 1.5 years, $100K of GAM, and stepping back 1 spot in draft order into Kellyn Acosta, Andre Shinyashiki, and Clint Irwin.  That's up there as one of the great trades in league history.  To quote Hamilton:

"We got more than we gave

and we wanted what we got

When you got skin the the game, you stay in the game

But you don't get a win unless you play in the game

Oh, you get love for it

You get hate for it"

Now, for another $50K in GAM that becomes an international slot for 1.5 years, $150K of GAM, and stepping back 1 spot in draft order into Kellyn Acosta, Andre Shinyashiki, and Clint Irwin.  Dallas, you got played.

(Yeah, I know we also lost Badji's contributions for 2.5 years, but that amounted to 55 appearances, 3597 minutes, 9 goals, 6 assists, for all intents and purposes what we've gotten out of Shinyashiki while he's been gone.  So cancel those two out and we still got Kellyn Acosta and Clint Irwin for an international slot for 1.5 years and $150K of GAM)

Also today there are multiple reports out of Brazil that the loan deal for Esteves is done.  Robin Fraser's weekly media availability was today and Padraig Smith joined him, however when asked about Esteves he had no comment about any specific player.

More Rumors

Combining the article Sam Skejskal wrote in the Athletic on the Kaye trade, this report from Inside Rapids, and some things I've heard we have some things to talk about today.

Lets start with that report from Inside Rapids of Lucas Esteves signing for Colorado.  He's a 21 year old Brazilian LB who currently plays for Palmeiras.  He's made 2 appearances for the first team, having come up through tier youth system.  Transfermarkt currently lists him with a valuation of just under a million dollars.  I've heard this may not be our only move at LB either, so we'll have to see what happens in the next 8 days (the window closes at end of business/end of day next Thursday).

Sam's article in the Athletic mentions that the Rapids were working on a LB move, which syncs up with the Inside Rapids report.  Later in the comments Sam also states that Acosta is not expected to leave any time soon and there aren't any offers on the table for him.  While he has played really well this season and stood out in the Gold Cup, he is a 26 year old American.  European teams aren't usually looking for that.  That doesn't mean his window is closed, but its going to take the right team to make the right offer at the right time to get a deal done.  That could come tomorrow, or it could come at the end of the 2022 season.  Given that the Rapids have to plan for him to be here long-term.  Which makes the Kaye addition even more exciting as its an addition to what we have now, not a replacement for something we're losing.

It really means though that once everyone gets back from the Gold Cup that Bassett is going to have a hard time finding starts.  Kaye, Acosta, and Price are the obvious 3 in the midfield.  Acosta may need to split time at LB, depending on Wilson's injury forcing Trusty to move back inside and how ready Esteves is, but eventually Namli will likely return as well.  With Barrios on one side and Namli and Galvan pushing for time on the other Bassett doesn't have a spot.

One other thing to watch, if we sign a Brazilian we need an international slot we don't have.  We can use Namli's while he's on the Injured List but eventually we need to make a hole.  Do we trade for a slot?  Or will we be forced to release somebody?  Clearly Namli, Price, Wilson, and Galvan aren't going anywhere.  I doubt Shinyashiki is either.  That leaves Mezquida and Benezet.  I can't see either one going to the Springs for the rest of the season unless its a "finish out your contract down there and we'll release you" type of move, which might be what's necessary.  If so I think Mezquida may or may not have a future here, Benezet doesn't, so that would be my choice.

Welcome Mark-Anthony Kaye!

The Rapids made a big move today, sending $1 million in GAM and an international slot for next year to LAFC for Canadian midfielder Mark-Anthony Kaye and LAFC's first round pick next season.  There are incentives in the deal that could raise the final amount of GAM LAFC gets but from what I'm hearing its not much or its based on the Rapids doing so good we won't care about paying them.  LAFC also retains 10% of any transfer fee the Rapids get after the Rapids get their initial payment back (so 10% of the fee after the first $1M+incentive payments).

Needless to say this is a significant outlay for a player.  Kaye is 26 years old (birthday in December) and is a regular callup for the Canadian National Team.  He's been part of LAFC since they signed him before their inaugural season in 2018, appearing 77 times in 3.5 seasons for them.  Before that he played for Louisville City in the USL and TFC II and TFC III before that.  Coming up through TFC's Academy means he counts as a domestic player even though he's Canadian so he doesn't need an international slot.

This season he's lost playing time as LAFC has shifted formation and his skills have been squeezed out of their midfield.  He's also seems to be making a few more mistakes in defense lately and some LAFC commentators suggested that he needed a change of scenery.  Of course we heard the same thing about Keegan Rosenberry.  And Kellyn Acosta.  And Auston Trusty.  And Michael Barrios.  We aren't becoming known as Distressed Assets FC for nothing.  I have faith that if there are any issues along those lines that Padraig Smith and Robin Fraser know how to get a player back to playing at their best.

IMO this is a real solid move by the club.  It seems to be seen as a very positive move for both teams by neutral fans and commentators around MLS.  There are a number of Rapids fans who are still, somewhat fairly, gun shy after seeing so many deals blow up in our face but the track record of the current FO is one that doesn't make the same mistake twice and one that has a pretty good read on MLS-based players.  (International signings, well, there's still work to do).  

Plus look at how this deal breaks down.  $1M of GAM is the same amount of GAM we're going to get from the Vines sale.  100% of the proceeds from a homegrown player being sold go back to the club, with the first $1M going back to the club as GAM, and the rest going back as funds that have to be reinvested in the club outside of salary/transfer fees (it can't be pocketed.  We're essentially buying Kaye with house money, which is exactly how the youth system is supposed to work.  The international slot in 2022 is meaningless as we have no idea what kind of green cards will be acquired by then, so we can easily work around that.  The 10% sell on clause is nothing.  If we sell Kaye for $2M we'd get $1.9M (our initial cost of $1M plus 90% of everything else) and LAFC would get $100K.  Whatever.

In exchange we get a midfield of Jack Price, possibly the most underrated midfielder in the league, Canadian Nat Mark-Anthony Kaye, and American Nat Kellyn Acosta.  Its hard to say there's a better 3-man midfield in the league.  It gives us some of that bite we've been missing and another threat to score.

You noticed I included Acosta.  My first reaction to this move was that this screamed that we were about to sell him but after some thought and talking to some contacts I think that's less likely.  As well as Acosta has been playing we haven't heard any rumors about offers for him.  This improves the team even if he doesn't get sold in a year where we have a chance to really make some noise.  I think the odd man out here is Bassett.  Its going to be hard to displace those three from the starting lineup.  He's going to have to force Fraser to play a 4-man midfield or hope Acosta spends more time at LB than I expect.  With only 18 months left on his contract this feels more like a plan for him leaving, one way or the other, than Acosta.

Same As It Ever Was

The Rapids, once again, played their worst game of the season in Sandy as the evil empire blew the doors off the burgundy boys en route to a 3-0 win.  Really the scoreline flatters FSL as the wounds were largely self-inflected, at least up to the point where it didn't matter.  That starts with one of the worst own goals in Rapids history as a simple pass from Abubakar back to Yarbrough was misplayed by the keeper and rolled into the goal.  Will just took his eyes off of it and let it get under his feet.  Inexcusable.  

That was followed by a not great turnover by Shinyashiki in the attacking third that turned into a fast break down the field for FSL.  Rosenberry, inexplicably, kept ceding ground to bobby Wood, from the mdifield strip to the midpoint of the box before he tried to make a play.  By that point Wood had created separation enough that Rosenberry couldn't block the shot.  Keegan did, correctly, push him to the outside but then Yarbrough committed another cardinal sin for a keeper and got beat near post.  As a keeper, especially with a defender pushing the attacker outside, you have to make the attacker beat you with the hard shot to the far post, not the easy one near post.

After half the Rapids tried to rally to get back into it, but after an initial burst in the first 15 minutes, capped off by a good clearance off the line of a Abubakar header by a FSL defender, but after that it was fairly clear how this game was going to end.  FSL get one more after Rubin found space between Abubakar and Trusty with neither closing him down, an easy pass put him in on goal and there was nothing Yarbrough could do.

This was a bad week for Colorado.  Coming into it 7 points was a reasonable goal and 9 points was not our of the question.  Instead we got 4 points and played maybe 15 minutes of good soccer in 270 minutes of game time (the 15 minutes after half in the Dallas game).  This stretch really shows how important Vines and particularly Acosta are to this team.  Without Kellyn dictating play in the middle there's nothing to stop teams from running right at our back line.  Bobby Wood's goal was the 3rd or 4th long run he took at the defense with the ball to get into a dangerous spot.  Acosta's played lights out for the Nats at the Gold Cup, which will probably get him the European deal he's been looking for.  We just have to hope that its this winter and not in August, because without him we're sunk for 2021.

Yarbrough had the worst performance by a Rapids keeper since probably the infamous Joe Nasco game.  In 16 minutes he essentially gave FSL a 2 goal lead.  This comes on the heels of a shaky effort against Dallas.  Its not time to make a change. but he's lost any "lead" he had over Irwin for the #1 spot.  Another bad game in the next few matches and it would be good to see what Irwin could do.

Yarbrough's own goal really shook this team, and they never got their heads back in the game.  This was something that was foreseen (by me, among others) in the preseason as a weakness in this squad.  So much youth is great but the lack of veteran leadership makes it hard to get out of a bad spiral when the team gets into one, especially when its one of the senior leaders that made the mistake.

All we can do now is put it behind us and move forward.  Its important that the team bounces back from the poor performance and heads down to Austin with something to prove.  This will be the last match without Acosta and Lewis, but I expect Vines' transfer to be announced as soon as the Gold Cup is over.  Luckily most of the teams around us in the standings also dropped points so the loss didn't hurt us too much, outside of the Rocky Mountain Cup.

Man of the Match: Ollie Larraz.  Given how poorly the team played, his 4 minutes (plus stoppage) of play showed at least a spark that the team was missing.

Rocky. Mountain. Cup.

No need to explain how important this one is.  Tomorrow, 8pm, Sandy, Utah.  The rightful Rocky Mountain Cup holders take on the pretenders from the west side of the Divide.  C38 has a contingent heading out on a bus in the morning.  KSL, Salt Lake's TV affiliate, streams the game online for free so even if you live in Denver and are blacked out by Altitude you should be able to watch it there (FSL announcers though).  to remind everyone, last year's decision to only count certain games towards the Cup was a exception due to COVID.  This year we're back to all 3 games counting towards the Cup.  Total points over the 3 games wins it.  If tied then its total goals.  If still tied the current (and rightful) holders would retain the Cup.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

International Callups:

USA: D Sam Vines, M Kellyn Acosta, M Jonathan Lewis

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Danny Wilson, M Jack Price

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: F Diego Rubio

Exactly the same player availability as Wednesday.  Really happy Price and Wilson were able to avoid yellows long enough to get to this game.

I think Fraser is going to ask some guys to dig deep and go for their second start in just over 72 hours, and for a lot of them their 3rd start in just over 7 days.  We get a week off after this and its a big match.  This is probably our best XI with the 4 guys that are missing and I think we'll see it start tomorrow night.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Galvan.  Both teams have equal offenses but the Rapids have a slightly better defense.  FSL is in a bit of a tailspin right now but I'm very hesitant to predict any kind of result in Sandy given our record there.  We are on a two game win streak with a win there over Vancouver earlier this season and the 5-0 beat down we put on FSL to win the Cup last season, but I think 3 games in a week is going to be asking a lot with our depth issues.  Getting out with a draw would be a solid, if maybe not hoped for, result.

And a reminder of what we're playing for:

Expected 3 Points, Got 3 Points

A workman's-like effort from the Rapids last night in a workman's-like game.  This was a game where the Rapids were better than the other team, put out enough effort to get the lead, and then just killed the game and claimed the 3points.  No big highlights, no stress, just get out there and get the job done for a warm mid-week game.  That said, the first half looked a lot like the San Jose game with both teams not doing a whole lot.  Dallas actually put it in the back of the net in the 29th minute but it was correctly waved off due to an offside in the build up.  That was the only real highlight going into the break.

Fraser clearly told the team to start shooing in the locker room, because we spent far too much of the first half trying to walk it into the goal.  We came out of the break and scored twice in the first 10 minutes.  The first off another set piece setup from Captain Jack, firing in a corner for Abubakar to get his head on, and the second another revenge goal from Barrios against his old team.  He got a bit of a lucky bounce that fooled the keeper but that's what happens when things are going your way.  After that we were able to throttle back, sub liberally, and try to conserve energy for our Rocky Mountain Cup match on Saturday.

Random Thoughts:

• Another game, another successful outing for Trusy at LB.  His next test is really when we play a quality side who might be able to exploit any weaknesses he has in that role.
• Yarbrough had a bit of an off-night, but Dallas wasn't able to capitalize on it.  He had a bad distribution right to a Dallas attacker that forced him into an immediate save, he went walkabout at one point and Drew Moor had to make an emergency clearance, and he had one cross go right through his hands and would have been easy pickings had Dallas had anyone within attacking distance.  Everyone has a bad night though so I'm not worried.
• Speaking of Drew Moor, his perfect record this season continues.  He's only been subbed in to close out wins so far.
• The Rapids are also the only team in MLS to have not conceded a goal in the last 15 minutes of a game this season.
• The ongoing rotation in midfield is really showing us who should be the starters and who should be the backups.  Price, Acosta, Bassett, Barrios, and Galvan are clearly the best of the bunch, with Rubio in front of them.
• Saturday Benezet got his chance to move into a starter's role and last night it was Shinyashiki.  Much like Benezet, Shinyashiki did not impress.  his touch and timing are off and he's best served in a sub role once the Gold Cup trio return.
• Mezquida is doing well enough, which is what we expect from a clear backup.
• Rubio had a solid game, but he was oddly quiet in his normal expressiveness.  I don't know if he's decided that its not working or he was just taking it easy.
• The Bodmer Line is down to 0.952 pts/game.
• in 2016 we had 27 points after 13 games, so we're 3 points off that pace.  The big difference is that the 2016 team didn't lose a 3rd game until the 21st match.  We already have 3 losses.
• While we're off to a great season, the one caveat is that in our 13 games we've only played 5 teams currently in a playoff position.  In those games we're 2-1-2 (W-D-L).  The last 10 games of the season we'll play 7 matches against teams likely in a playoff position.  So its good we're banking points now.
• Next up, its Rocky Mountain Cup week as we head to Sandy.

Not directly related to the game, but The Athletic had a report tonight that a MLS team reached out to the Rapids to ask permission to talk to Robin Fraser about their head coaching position.  Because of that the Rapids and Fraser are now talking about a contract extension.

That's the extent of the report.  Reading between the lines though I'm 909% sure the unnamed MLS team is Toronto FC, who recently fired head coach Chris Armas.  I'm also pretty sure Toronto asked because they had to, knowing Robin's ties to the team, but they also knew they weren't going to get permission and that Fraser probably wasn't interested in leaving so soon into his tenure.  I'm also thinking that Padraig Smith knows he's got a good thing going and decided this gave him a good reason to lock Fraser down for a longer stretch.  Something his predecessors failed to do when Dallas came sniffing after Pareja.

Man of the Match: Michael Barrios.  He was dangerous all night, even if his touch failed him a couple of times, and god a goal against his old team (again).  He's been the best of our offseason pickups by a good deal and shows it night after night.

Messing With Texas...Yet Again

It feels like we can't go 3 games this season without playing one of the Texas teams, and here we go again. Our old friends FC Dallas are in town tomorrow night for our 3rd game against them this season.  We drew in our opening game down in Dallas and then handled them pretty easily in their last trip up here.  This is our third and final matchup this season (barring one of the greatest turn arounds in league history getting Dallas to the playoffs) and its one we should win.  Dallas is the worst team in the West, but the only thing keeping them in the basement is the point we gave San Jose on Saturday.  Kickoff at the Dick is at 7pm and no change in the TV situation.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

International Callups:

USA: D Sam Vines, M Kellyn Acosta, M Jonathan Lewis

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Danny Wilson, M Jack Price

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: F Diego Rubio

The midfield is really hard to predict tomorrow.  Some would say throw out the scrubs against a weak team and save the horses for our Rocky Mountain Cup match in Sandy on Saturday.  At times I would agree with them.  The other viewpoint is that you take the "easy" points at home by going at a weak team with full strength and deal with Saturday on Saturday.  I'm leaning towards that viewpoint with this lineup.  Rubio and Galvan were rested on Saturday for a reason, I'm hoping getting these 3 points is why.  I can't see sitting Barrios against his old team.  Other than that its young kids or guys we can't afford to rest (Price mainly).

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Barrios.  Dallas is quite bad and we should really expect nothing less than 3 points here.  I expect Barrios wants to get one against his former team and Rubio will be rested after the break on Saturday.  We should not be sweating the end of this game out, we should have it well in hand.

For Bassett It Was The Best Of Times And The Worst Of Times

Saturday night was a rough outing for the Rapids.  An early defensive miscue put them in a hole and let San Jose start time wasting from the 15th minute.  The Earthquakes went what some would call "full CONCACAF dark arts" to kill the game off and Colorado didn't handle it well.  They managed to fool the ref enough to disrupt the Rapids game.  Luckily the home side managed to find a way back into the game and get a draw but it felt like 2 points left on the field.

Random Thoughts:

• Cole Bassett had some good things and some bad things in this game.  Lets start with the negative and finish on a good note.  On the SJ goal Bassett is tracking Lopez down the field.  Lopez gets a bit of separation which allows him to receive the pass.  That's ok though as Wilson has his eyes on Lopez and is stepping up to close him down.  Bassett, trying to close the space, overruns the play and puts himself right into Wilson's path.  Danny has to step around him and the delay gives Lopez the space he needs to get off the shot.  Credit to Lopez for a well placed goal to beat Yarbrough, but he shouldn't have had the time to get the shot off.
• Now the good stuff.  Bassett didn't let the mistake take him out of the game and kept pushing to drive the Rapids forward.  Sometimes he was pushing too hard but in the end it paid off.  The Rapids had a bit of sustained possession around the Quakes box and after some short passes Bassett took the ball down with his chest, cut inside, and uncorked a worm burner from the top of the 18.  The keeper was a bit shielded and that was enough to level the score.
• An interesting starting XI for the Rapids.  Benezet, Mezquida, and Shinyashiki all got the start.  It didn't really work.  The Rapids only had two shots on goal all night and Bassett's goal was one of them.  These three combined for 1 shot on goal (Mezquida).  In particular Benezet had a chance to make a case for more playing time...and wasted it.
• I really question Fraser's roster use in this one.  He only used two subs, and getting Toure his first professional appearance with 3 minutes to play wasn't about winning the game.  Pulling Benezet for Galvan was the right move, but it wasn't enough.  Why not put Rubio in to try to grab a game winner?  Fleming said on the pregame there had been some knocks in practice, I have to assume Rubio was one of them, but if he's able to suit up on the bench then we should use him to find the points.
• Strategy of this game aside, the roster use knowing we have 3 games this week is also questionable.  Why not get Wilson some rest and have Moor play the last 20 minutes?  Let Warner fill in for Price if you're not going to push for a win?
• With the disappointing draw the pressure is on for the other two games this week.  Dallas at home Wednesday night needs to be 3 points.  Then our trip to Sandy on Saturday can't be a loss.  I mean, its the Rocky Mountain Cup, it can't be a loss anyway but now we need at least a point not to lose ground.
• The Bodmer line is down to 1.04 pts/game.

Man of the Match: Lalas Abubakar.  A solid game and he gets a ton of credit from keeping Wondolowski from popping up late and scoring a game winner like he's done so many time in this league.

The Call Up

 

Ok, after some Gold Cup fun its time to get back to the Rapids.  We've got a busy week with San Jose in town tomorrow night, Dallas visiting on Wednesday, and a trip over the Divide to the dark place next Saturday.  The Rapids will have to do it all without Acosta and Lewis, and of course Vines is likely never going to play in a Rapids uniform again.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm and the C38 tailgate is back up and running post-COVID, starting at 4.  You all know the TV situation.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

International Callups:

USA: D Sam Vines, M Kellyn Acosta, M Jonathan Lewis

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Danny Wilson

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: M Jack Price, F Diego Rubio

I think Fraser sticks with what worked against Minnesota on the back line.  Nobody has locked down the other winger spot yet and Galvan had a good showing last time out so I think we see him again.  As far as filling the Acosta-sized hole in midfield Fraser will go with a true destroyer to help bolster a back line missing Vines, though we could see Bassett dropped back and Mezquida in front of him.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Galvan and Barrios.  San Jose is  not a good team, especially on the road.  Even down our 3 Nats we should expect to win this game.  I think our wingers are going to stand out and put us in good shape starting our 3 game week.

Sammy Frites? Sammy Waffles?

First reported by Sam Stejskal at the Atlantic, and then confirmed by Abbie Mood over at Burgundy Wave, by the end of the week its expected Sam Vines will be sold to Royal Antwerp FC of the Belgium Jupiter Pro League.  The reports are that the Rapids will get close to $2 million for Vines, plus a sell-on clause.  The reporting is a little less clear on if that number includes the reported unspecified incentives or if those are in addition to that.

Royal Antwerp is the oldest club in Belgium and finished last season 2nd in the regular season behind Club Brugge who ran away with the league (16 points ahead of Antwerp).  Belgium uses playoffs to determine its winner and European places, and Brugge easily won the overall title while Antwerp struggled in the playoffs and was passed by Genk, finishing 3rd.  That places Antwerp into the Europa League playoff as one of the top 6 seeds, where they'll face one of the bottom 6 teams that came through the qualifying rounds in a home and home series for a spot in the Europa League group stage.  The draw will be in early August with the games play in mid and late August.

According to reports Vines will have a chance to start immediately, as the current Antwerp roster only had two young LB's on it.  It won't be given to him but you have to like his chances.  The Belgium league has become known as a good seasoning league for young players in Europe who aren't yet ready to make the jump to the big 5 leagues.  Antwerp has a new manager this season who is known for favoring youth which is a good sign for Sammy.  Assuming this becomes official I'll be looking for the best way to buy a new Antwerp jersey and I'll pass on what I find here.

That's the Sam Vines side of this, now lets look at the Rapids side.  First of all $2M seems low for what we were hoping to see for our first big homegrown transfer.  Shane O'Neill was of course the first homegrown to make the jump to Europe, but that was a move made more out of "its not working here and we need to move on", not a move that showed clear success of our youth movement.  The numbers thrown around for Vines by fans and even some experts this offseason were closer to $5 million than $2.  That said, we don't really know, yet, what the final total will be.  If we get $1.5 million up front, $750k in incentives, and 25% of a future $10M sale, then that's almost $5M total.  Secondly a lower number that's easily agreed on can be a way to grease the skids of future transfers (Basset, Acosta, etc.) as the Rapids get a reputation of not over-valuing players which could pay off in the long run.  Also we have to be realistic about the global soccer economy due to COVID.  Most teams don't have the same money to throw around they did 18 months ago.

This also leaves the Rapids with a hole to fill at LB.  They can plug in a lot of stop-gaps to get through 2021 if they don't have a good replacement lined up yet.  Beitashour, Acosta, and Trusty have all shown ability to play there.  None of those are great options long-term though.  I'm really hoping that the Rapids have a plan to fill the hole this transfer window.  Vines leaving was predicted by many people (including myself) so it shouldn't surprise the Front Office.  Even if the move is for a young guy who maybe isn't ready to be a full time starter but shows potential for next season (think Galvan or Trusty) that makes squeezing through 2021 with stop-gaps palatable.  But I don't want to look at the roster when training camp opens next season wondering who our LB is going to be.

In the end, I am really happy for Vines and excited to see what he'll do in Belgium.  The league has a contract to show up to 3 games a week on ESPN+ and I'll be tuning in whenever Royal Antwerp is featured (which, as a top team, I assume they will be often).  While the Rapids are hurt by his move its a great example for the Front Office to point to when recruiting young players.  They can show how a local kid went through the academy, was signed by the first team and was loaned out to the USL, earned a starting spot for the first team, got a callup and got to play in the Gold Cup, and is now in Europe.  They'll likely repeat that model with Bassett as well.

Rapids Trust(y) Lineup Changes to Galvan-ize Team To Victory

Ok, so I'm a bit late with this.  Lots going on this week.  Still, its nice to be late with a good writeup instead of a bad one.  Despite the losses of Vines and Lewis to the National team and the second game in 4 days, the Rapids easily handled Minnesota United on Wednesday night.  While Colorado conceded possession most of the night they never allowed Minnesota to get into a dangerous position, allowing only 2 shots on goal, both between the 40th minute and halftime.  The depleted Rapids lineup took its time but finally struck just before half and then doubled it near the end of the game.

Random Thoughts:

• Great seeing Galvan get the start and a goal.  He's going to push hard for playing time during the Gold Cup and given the lack of an obvious starter opposite Barrios he should get it.
• Shinyashiki's goal was comical in the setup.  Its not often you see a guy set up himself with an assist, but the attempted pass to Benezet was just a bit too far from him, but nobody from Minnesota followed the ball, so Andrew ran onto his own pass and finished it.  Really poor defensive work by United.
• It was an interesting 4-4-2/4-5-1 we played in.  Galvan played wing all night but on the other side Barrios spent a lot of time at second striker and not just wing.  That's a better adjustment than the 5-3-2 attempt.
• Acosta locked down midfield, especially in the absence of Captain Jack.  I'm not sure a midfield of Price and Bassett along with Mezquida or Warner will be able to compensate for his absence.  We need other positions to step up.
• Rubio drew a legitimate red card with his typical flopping.  I don't love it when a player dives, but in this case there was clearly a rabbit punch to the solar plexus in the scrum and Rubio was clearly not hurt by it, but also clearly realized he could draw a card and dropped like a sack of potatoes.  But a punch is a red, regardless of how much force is behind it.
• Best game this season from Abubakar.
• Meanwhile Benezet is not showing anything to make me believe he should get more playing time, or a new contract after the season.
• We go into this small international break at 4th place in the West, 5th place over all, and a PPG of 1.82.  In comparison our best ever season in 2016 finished at 1.71 PPG.
• The Bodmer Line is down to 1.04 PPG.  So essentially 1 win and drawing the rest of the games should get us into the playoffs.
• After the 10 day break we get San Jose and Dallas at home on Saturday and Wednesday, before heading to Sandy for our first Rocky Mountain Cup match of the season 3 days later.  7 points is a reasonable goal for that week, which would put us in great shape.

Man of the Match: Auston Trusty.  Asked to move to LB in Vines' absence he locked down the position and got into the attack.  I think he should play out there as long as the Gold Cup is going on.  That also allows us to get all 3 of our starting CB's on the field at the same time without having to use the 5-3-2 formation.

Looney Tunes Scheduling

Man, I know its a busy summer for international soccer, and with an uneven number of teams in the league somebody is on a bye on every match day, but the scheduling this year is crazy.  We played 7 games, took 2 weeks off, played 2 games, took 10 days off, are now playing our second game in 3 days, and then get another 10 days off, and then we'll get 3 games in a week.  Tomorrow puts the Loon in the Looney Tune scheduling as Minnesota United is in town.  We last saw them in our second home match this year where we went down 2-0 in the first half and then scored 3 in the second half for the 3-2 win.  A repeat result, hopefully a bit more easily, would be great tomorrow.  Kickoff at the Dick is at 7pm.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

QUESTIONABLE: M Jack Price

International Absences:

USA: D Sam Vines, M Jonathan Lewis

There was confirmation today from multiple sources, including Matt Pollard and Richard Fleming, that the Nats have allowed Kellyn Acosta to delay his departure for the Gold Cup until after tomorrow night's match.  This is because he (and Sebastian Lletget in LA) played in the Nations League and Berhalter feels confident they know the system and he knows what to expect from them, so they don't need to be in camp as soon as everyone else.  Its also a good way to build goodwill with the club teams for the next time the Nats need to call players up at a tough time.

Reports from training today are that Price is back in practice but is still questionable for tomorrow.  I'm betting with Acosta still around they'll let Jack rest and then have 10 days off to get fully healthy before using him.

Its really difficult to know what Fraser is going to do tomorrow.  No Price, Namli, or Vines and everyone else on 3 days rest.  I'm leaning towards Acosta starting in the midfield in the absence of Price, not filling in for Vines at LB.  To replace Price we don't have Lewis like we did on Sunday, so Warner gets the call to play a true d-mid in front of the back line.  Then there are two or three options to fill LB, including Beitashour or changing formation, but I'm guessing we see Rosenberry moved over and the recalled Kelly going at RB.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Bassett and Barrios.  The Rapids have a better offense and a slightly better defense than Minnesota, but that's when they're at full strength.  Tomorrow's game will be a test for that back line and not one they come through unscathed.  But not having to travel for a quick turnaround game will be enough of a difference that Colorado gets the win.

Glass Half Full or Glass Half Empty?

This is a game where you can take positives or negatives away, depending on your point of view.

Positive: Rapids battle back from a deficit against the best team in the league to get a draw

Negative: Rapids allowed a goal on the only on target shot they faced

Positive: Rapids outplayed the best team in the league

Negative: Despite outplaying them, they couldn't finish and only got a draw

Positive: No Price and still got a point

Negative: There's a lot of money on this roster (Namli, Price, Benezet) that wasn't starting last night

etc., etc., etc.

In the end I take more positives out of this match than negatives.  After a mess in SKC the Rapids looked like they belonged in a match against a top team.  Fraser learned that his experiment with the 5-3-2 wasn't working and put our best possible lineup out there in a formation that worked for them.  A 1-1 draw is what I predicted if that happened, and its what we earned.

Last night's game does show the need for a #9.  A better striker and we could have won that game with the number of opportunities we got.  None of them were clear cut chances (and Seattle never got one either) which is why you need a top-tier striker to finish those half chances.  We don't have somebody we can rely on to do that.

I have to admit that watching this on delay, after accidentally seeing the score, meant I didn't pay as much attention as I usually do.  So take my opinions in this write-up with a grain of salt.

Man of  the Match: Pablo Mastroeni.  One last MotM in honor of his jersey retirement.

A Delayed 25th Year Celebration for #25

Sunday night is the annual 4th of July game, but it is also a delayed celebration of the greatest player in club history, Pablo Mastroeni.  After the match, but before the annual firework show, the Rapids will retire Pablo's #25, the only number retired in club history.

Trivia question, one other player has worn #25 for the Rapids, can you name him?

While Pablo's time as coach was not as successful as anyone wanted, therets no questioning his success as a player for this club.  This is an honor well-deserved and I hope the team pulls out all the stops to honor him.

Of course before all that we have a match, and not an easy one at that.  Seattle is in town for the 3rd time in the last 4 Independence Day matches (of course, we didn't have one last season).  We lost the last two 3-1 and 2-1, and we're going to have to play our best to avoid a repeat result.  Seattle has been, hands down, the best team in the league so far.  Kickoff is at 7pm and TV is what it is.

As always this is one home match where I won't be in attendance as I'll be celebrating my 23rd anniversary.  I'm not sure how she's put up with me this long but I'm grateful she has.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

QUESTIONABLE: D Steven Beitashour

Seattle is likely missing a number of notable players, so we're getting them at the right time.  I really hope Fraser returns to the 4-5-1 above.  As I detailed last week the 5-3-2 is a disaster and Seattle will eat us alive if we start that way.  I put Lewis on the wing figuring he'd get one shot before leaving and we could rest the other options before the midweek match against Minnesota.  Likewise Abubakar can be rested as well as we start Wilson and Trusty.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Bassett.  These are the best two defenses in the West, playing in heat and altitude.  I don't expect a wide-open game.  Honestly a draw feels a little optimistic given how we looked against SKC, but I'm hoping a change back to our more successful formation combined with our 4th of July home advantage is enough to overcome Seattle's quality.  If we start with a 5-3-2 and concede possession to Seattle a 2-0/3-1 loss is not out of the question.

You Get A Callup! And You Get A Callup! And You Get A Callup!

The U.S. announced its Gold Cup roster today and there was a surprise leader (tied) for the team with the most callups, the Colorado Rapids.  Along with Atlanta both teams had 3 people on the roster.  Jonathan Lewis, Kellyn Acosta, and Sam Vines will all be wearing the red, white, and blue in July.  They are expected to depart after the Independence Day game on Sunday.  Apparently because he was part of the Nations League squad the Galaxy arranged with the Nats to keep Sebastian Lletget through the midweek game on Wednesday, I'm crossing my fingers that the Rapids get the same consideration for Kellyn Acosta's time on the Nations League squad.

This is great news for the trio of players, and it reflects well on the Rapids.  But its going to make for a rough month for the club.  Acosta doesn't have a great backup in midfield, and he's the primary backup for Sam Vines.  So we're going to play 4-5 games without the trio, depending on how far the U.S. gets (I'm assuming they at least get out of the group stage).  In response to this the team has recalled Jeremy Kelly from his loan to Phoenix today, which will give us a bit more depth at outside back.

If I had to guess I bet we see some combination of Kelly, Beitashour (if he can get healthy) and maybe even a recalled Seb Anderson filling in for Vines.  We even saw Galvan play there for a few minutes against Cinci.  For Acosta (and remember, we're already missing Namli) its likely Bassett drops back more and we see Shinyashiki or Benezet playing above Bassett and Warner.  If we want to be more defensive we leave Bassett forward and see Warner or Larraz behind him.  We'll miss Lewis' energy off the bench but we do have some cover there, the biggest beneficiary will likely be Galvan.

If there's any good news, its that those 4-5 games aren't a murder's row of opponents.  Minnesota at home, where there's a chance we'll still have Acosta, SJ and Dallas at home, both teams look pretty bad, and then FSL and Austin on the road.  I hate going to Sandy without this trio, that makes that game even harder despite FSL looking awful.  Austin should be a game we can get a result in, but I said that when they came here for the home opener.  Then a week after the Gold Cup final, when everyone should be back and rested, we get SKC at home.