Colorado Rolls To A Much Needed Win

Well that's what the doctor ordered for the Rapids.  A relatively easy 3 goal win using our backups sets us up well for our final 8 game run to the playoffs.  Austin had one really good look (which we'll get into later), otherwise our defense kept them quiet and our offense finally found its shooing boots (with some help from Austin's defense).  With the win the Rapids go to 48 points, within 10 points of their all-time record.

Random Observations:

• Lets talk about that Austin attack that somehow didn't result in discipline of some sort.  Abubakar got beat and reached out to throw the Austin striker off his shot.  Live I thought for sure it should be a PK and card.  Watching the replay I'm pretty sure it should have been a foul just outside the box and a card.  I think the ref got that wrong.  Its probably a red card for Denial of an Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity, but you could make the case that Trusty was close enough to cover.  That, along with it being just outside the box (probably) is why VAR didn't get involved, because the no-PK call was correct and the lack of a red was not a clear and obvious mistake.  But it was a missed call without a doubt.
• The Rapids took that gift and ran with it.  Lewis got on the board with the last kick of the half, but I don't know how that didn't stay an own goal on Austin.  Maybe on replay you can make the case that Lewis' header was going in but I think its a stretch.
• Then right after half Austin's keeper set up Mezquida nicely with a pass right too him while he was outside his goal area.  Easy shot and score for Nico.
• Finally the Rapids got a goal without Austin's help, with Trusty heading in a Price corner kick.
• The only real negative from this match was injuries.  Both Yarbrough and Esteves went down in the second half.  Yarbrough got back up after treatment and finished the game, and we could have subbed him out at 3-0 up if we were really concerned about him.  Esteves went down in stoppage time and hobbled through the last couple of minutes, we'll have to see how he is.
• Fraser rolled the dice a bit on this one, putting out a B lineup.  He was betting our B squad could beat Austin and/or our rested A squad could beat Seattle in Seattle on Sunday.  As long as he got one of those bets right he was fine, and he did.  If he gets both right he's a genius.  But had he missed on both then he'd have some questions to answer.
• Right now FSL is in 5th and is on pace for 49 points.  So one more win in our final 8 should pretty much clinch a home playoff game.  Portland is in 4th, on pace for 54.  So we need at least tat least wo wins to feel good about finishing top 3.  (Especially if one of them is against Portland).  Its likely the top 3 positions are going to come down to the final games.
• As mentioned, next up is Seattle in Seattle, a tough place for us to place historically.

Man of the Match:  Jack Price.  2 assists, including his team record 11th game winner of the season.  He's already only the third Rapid to have multiple seasons with 10+ assists (Paz, Cooke).  He's the engine for this team right now.

Rapids Need 3 Tomorrow Night

 

Austin is back in town for another game against a Texas team this season.  If you remember (And I understand if you don't) Austin was our opponent in our home opener this year and it didn't go well.  Time to get those 3 points back in what, at least on paper, is our easiest game remaining this season.  After this it gets harder for the last 8 games.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm.

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, M Collen Warner, F Diego Rubio

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION:  D Auston Trusty, D Danny Wilson, M Braian Galvan

There are no reports of any injuries, so everyone should be available, but we know how that's gone this season.

That's the 11 I expect, the formation is fungible.  I don't think we can afford to rest people for Sunday in Seattle with our recent results.  We need to get the 3 at home and worry about Sunday on Sunday.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Barrios.  This should be a bigger win than that, but our struggles in front of goal leave me hesitant to predict anything more than the bare minimum.  The Rapids control the game and get the 3 points, but its not the breakout game we're hoping for.  I expect KC and Seattle to win tomorrow as well so the standings won't change.

Tie-ing Up Loose Ends

Sorry I went dark after the Timbers match.  We left later that week on a road trip we got back from yesterday.  I did watch the Timbers game and the second half of the Vancouver game.  I didn't see the Toronto game at all, but by all reports I didn't miss anything.

While I didn't hate the LA game ending in a draw the last 3 results are all unacceptable.  Going to Portland and getting a draw sounds good, but there's no way we should have given that lead up twice.  And not being able to break down the Canadian duo at home is concerning.

The book is out on how to play the Rapids, especially in Commerce City.  Park the bus, conserve energy at altitude, and hope to steal a goal.  If not you're still getting out with a point.  Colorado hasn't shown an ability to break down a defensive shell like that and until we do, teams will keep using it.

This is where not having a sure-fire 10-15 goal striker hurts us.  We have plenty of guys who can set up opportunities, but few with the killer instinct to finish them.  If you look at our eXpected Goals over the last few games you see the Rapids with a high number of low percentage shots that add up to an xG of 1-2 goals a game, but very few good shots that are saved.  The few really good shots we've gotten we've mostly scored, but we can't find the guy to put away a lower percentage chance.

The good news is that the teams around us have largely stumbled as well.  We're 1 point behind KC for 2nd with a game in hand, and 3 points behind Seattle for first with 2 head-to-head matchups left.  The Timbers have moved into 4th but are still 5 points behind us and we have a game in hand and the Galaxy are 7 points back in 5th (the first playoff spot without a guaranteed home match) and we have a game in hand over them as well.  Things are still looking good for locking up a home playoff match, but our schedule gets a lot harder from here on out, we missed a good chance to solidify our spot in the top 2.

I'll be back to normal coverage now, with a game preview of Wednesday night's home match against Austin tomorrow.

Axe The Timbers

The Rapids head out to the great Pacific Northwest to face Portland tomorrow night.  The Timbers are sitting in 5th place, the first playoff spot without a guaranteed home match, so a win by the Rapids could go a long way towards securing a home playoff game for Colorado (depending on other results the Rapids could have over a 0.5 PPG lead for a slot with a home playoff game with a win).  Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm and TV is what it is.

Injury Report:

QUESTIONABLE: D Lalas Abubakar, D Jeremy Kelly, D Auston Trusty, M Younes Namli, F Diego Rubio

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: F Diego Rubio, M Collen Warner

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Danny Wilson

There hasn't been an injury update since the game on Saturday, so I put everyone who was on the report on Saturday into the Questionable category.  Kelly was out on Friday's report but made the 18, Rubio wasn't listed on Friday but was Out on Saturday, Trusty was Questionable and started, while Abubakar and Namli were Questionable and didn't make the 18.  Rubio might be back and I wouldn't be shocked either way with Abubakar given how concussions go.  I doubt we see Namli get his first appearance on the turf in Portland given he's recovering from angle surgery.

Excuse the formation, the site doesn't have one that reflects what the Rapids now play

Its always tough to guess how much squad rotation we'll get in a 3 game week, especially without an updated injury report.  I'm assuming Abubakar still won't be ready, but Rubio will.  And as mentioned earlier, we won't risk Namli's ankle on the turf (not that he would likely start anyway).  I just can't see Acosta starting, I'd be quite happy if he didn't even make the trip.  We've got to get him some rest.  This is my best guess, but I expect to be wrong.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Rubio.  Portland has one of the worst defenses in the league, but they've won their last 3 games by shutout.  The first against Seattle, impressively, but the other two against Vancouver and Houston who don't have great offenses.  I don't think they can keep the shoutout run going, meanwhile I'm liking our chances at bouncing back from a disappointing draw on Saturday.

As Expected

 

Quoting from my game preview:

1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  The Galaxy have a slightly better offense than us, but a lousy defense.  Unfortunately I don't think we'll be able to take as much advantage of that as we would like as I expect us to play more defensively to compensate for the loss of Price, Trusty, and Abubakar.  its getting harder and harder every game to pick against the Rapids with how their playing, but f there's a game that sets us back, tomorrow is likely it given the weather and absences.

On Saturday the Rapids took the lead midway through the second half on a goal from Barrios, and then gave it back late.  Pretty much exactly what I expected to happen.  It feels like 2 points lost, because in a way it was, but going into the game I felt a draw would be a solid result given that we had missing/not fully rested players, the heat, and the fact that we had to plan for a 3-game week.  So while it is disappointing its not horrible.

Random Thoughts:

• Lets give it up for Kellyn Acosta.  I didn't expect him to start, much less play 90 minutes in that heat.  That made for 270 minutes in 6 days in 3 cities, including a trip to Honduras and back.  I'd say there's no way he plays in Portland on Wednesday, but I didn't think he'd play much on Saturday.
• It was particularly shocking to see Kaye being the international that got subbed off.  Not that I disagreed with it, I was just sure it would be Acosta.
• Shinyashiki's assist on the goal was absolutely perfect.  He looks up, sees Barrios making the run, holds back for just a sec, and then plays a beautiful cross exactly where it needed to be.  You couldn't have placed it better if you picked up the ball, walked over to Barrios, and held it in place.
• Yarbrough has the best of times, worst of times game.  He stone walled LA on a break away in the first half that could be a save of the week.  Then on the LA goal he misplayed it and it went through his hands.  While the opportunity came from a great outlet pass from LA's half, the defense played it well and forced the attacker to take a long shot from the side of the box that Will had covered.  He just misread it.
• The stats for the game showed two pretty equal teams.  While it felt like the Rapids had the majority of the play (and they did, about 10% more of the possession and twice as many shots) the actual dangerous chances were fairly even.
• The moment of silence for the 9/11 remembrance was the quietest I've ever heard the stadium during a moment of silence.
• With the draw Robin Fraser is guaranteed to finish the season with the highest career PPG of any Rapids head coach.
• Still need 2 points to drive the Bodmer Line to 0.  Right now its at 0.167 pts/game.
• With the other results we're back in 3rd on points, but 2nd on PPG.  But with Seattle beating Minnesota and us holding LA to 1 point there's a clear gap between the top 4 and the rest of the West, and a pretty good gap opening between the Galaxy and the top 3.  Not having a home playoff game at this point would be a significant disappointment, and realistically we should be looking at 3rd place as merely acceptable.
• Next up a trip to Portland on Wednesday night.  The Timbers defense is on a 4 game shutout streak so it could be a low scoring game.  Getting any points helps reinforce that gap between the Galaxy in 4th and Portland in 5th.

Man of the Match:  Andre Shinyashiki.  Just for that assist.

Time To Broil

MLS in March: "A 1:30pm kickoff in Denver in September?  It might be a bit warm but it won't be too bad."

Climate change: "Hold my beer"

That's right, forecasted temperature at kickoff tomorrow is 94 degrees a full 15 degrees above the average for Sept. 11th.  Unless you're on the west side of the stadium (which C38 is not) you're going to cook along with me tomorrow.  Luckily it will feel just as warm for the Galaxy as it feels for us.  In case you're wondering the odd 1:30 kickoff time is for TV coverage on UniMas, so if you're not at the stadium you can watch the game there and not have to worry about not having Altitude.  Because there's no Altitude broadcast Fleming and Balboa get another week off, though I've heard Richard might make an appearance in section 117 with Centennial 38. :D

Injury Report:

OUT: D Jeremy Kelly

QUESTIONABLE: D Lalas Abubakar, D Auston Trusty, M Younes Namli

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED: M Jack Price (Yellow card accumulation)

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: F Diego Rubio

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Danny Wilson, M Collen Warner

Both Acosta and Kaye have returned from World Cup qualifying.  However Acosta played 90 minutes in Honduras for the U.S. on Wednesday night, so at best he'll be listed as a sub.  Kaye only played the last 20 minutes in a decided game (Canada was up 3-0 when he entered) in Toronto, so he should be good to go.

Good to see Namli upgraded to Questionable, but the rest of that is pretty ugly.  Trusty missed last week and if he's only questionable  I can't see him playing.  Lalas is presumably questionable due to concussion symptoms so you have to figure he's out too.  Plus with 3 games in a week there's no reason to push them and have them aggravate their conditions and miss more games.  Diego Rubio apparently is good to go though.

I don't think this is a perfect representation of the formation we'll play but its close.  Barrios may play back more and not up top along-side Rubio.  Also I'm not sure how forward Esteves will get, unlike Galvan who I expect to be bombing forward.  Its going to be important to get control early as Chicharito is expected to be available off the bench for the Galaxy, which means they'll be very dangerous late in the game.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  The Galaxy have a slightly better offense than us, but a lousy defense.  Unfortunately I don't think we'll be able to take as much advantage of that as we would like as I expect us to play more defensively to compensate for the loss of Price, Trusty, and Abubakar.  its getting harder and harder every game to pick against the Rapids with how their playing, but f there's a game that sets us back, tomorrow is likely it given the weather and absences.

Bankrobber

The Rapids executed a textbook smash and grab Saturday night, scoring the only goal of the game in the 89th minute and heading right out of town with the 3 points.  Up until that point it had been a pretty quiet game, the teams combined for 1 shot on goal in the first half, with 4 in the second half before Colorado scored.  The Rapids had 1 corner, San Jose had 0.  Mainly it was a midfield battle with nobody getting comfortable and it seemed destined for a 0-0 draw before the one moment Colorado needed.

Random Thoughts:

• Due to callups and unexpected injuries to Rubio, Trusty, and Kelly, the Rapids only had 6 players on their bench.  They would use all 5 field players as subs leaving just Clint Irwin as an unused sub.
• The second minute foul bey Abubakar on Ebobisse was bad.  A different ref or VAR and that could have been red.  Lalas was obviously going to put in a physical challenge on a ball he had no chance of playing to send a message.  The problem is when you do that you risk more than just a physical challenge, and that's what happened.  A head to head blow knocked both players out through concussion protocol, particularly bad for Ebobisse who has a history with concussions.
• That said, no, i don't think Lalas was head hunting.  He wouldn't have led with his own head in that case.  He was just going to "send a message" to Ebobisse and timed even that poorly.  I wouldn't be shocked to find out the DisCo has suspended Lalas for a match this week, nor would I disagree with it (I also wouldn't be surprised to find out that he's out next week due to concussion protocol anyway).  Certainly there's no grounds for the multi-game suspension some San Jose fans are calling for.
• That double concussion sub allowed for an unusually high 11 subs in 10 windows combined between the teams.  An example of the new concussion rules MLS is testing for FIFA, under which a team gets an extra sub/sub window to sub out a player with a concussion, and their opponent also gets an extra sub/sub window to even it out.  Since each team had a concussed player, each team got 2 extra subs/sub windows.
• Drew Moor played as many minutes in this game as he's played in the rest of the season combined.  I figured when he came in so early his season streaks of only playing in wins and never giving up a goal when he was on the field were at risk, but they're both still intact!
• Credit to Fraser for his subs.  He was clearly playing for the win and got it.  You don't take off a defensive midfielder (Warner) and replace him with an attacking midfielder (Mezquida) in the 72nd minute if you're happy with a 0-0 draw.
• 3 subs (Lewis, Mezquida, Badji) combined for the winning goal.
• Price's yellow card means he's suspended for Saturday's game against LA.
• Cole Bassett is cursed, he must be.  He hit the post for the 4th(?) game in a row.
• The Bodmer Line is almost 0.  We need 1 more win (or 3 draws) in the last 13 games to get to the playoff line
• With the win the Rapids go to the top of the West on PPG, and are 1 point behind Seattle for the top spot (with a game in hand).  New England still leads the league but we control our own destiny.  Match New England win for win, win our 3 games in hand, and beat them head-to-head in October and we finish ahead of them.

Man of the Match: Dominique Badji.  I mean, this is easy.  Gotta go with the late game-winner.

Inoculated City

 

Went with that title as that's what we're all hoping we get to shortly.  Until then we've got a trip to the Bay Area to face the Earthquakes tomorrow night.  both teams are missing two players to international duties, though the Rapids missing players are a bit more core to their team.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm and its actually on national TV, being the UniMas and TUDN Saturday night game.  So its in Spanish, but on National TV.  The English broadcast is available through Twitter, which means Fleming and Balboa get the night off (though I wouldn't be surprised to find out Balboa isn't available sue to working World Cup Qualifiers for Univision).  This is the first of two weeks in a row that the Rapids are on national (Spanish-language) TV, meaning we won't hear from our normal Rapids commentary team until the Portland game on Sept. 15th.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Younes Namli

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: M Jack Price, F Diego Rubio

TWO CAUTIONS FROM SUSPENSION: D Danny Wilson, M Collen Warner

International Absences:

USA: M Kellyn Acosta (played 26 minutes against El Salvador)

Canada: Mark-Anthony Kaye (unused sub against Honduras)

With the news about Bassett this week I'm hoping that explains why he's been pressing recently and struggling.  Having that opportunity hanging over you while you make a decision is probably not easy.  I'm thinking Fraser sticks with him this week to see if he can settle in more.  That puts Mezquida in the space behind Rubio, though out of our front 4 the only one I'm sure will start is Barrios.  The back 4 is fairly obvious, though at some point Esteves is likely to spell Trusty, but I think that's more likely at home.

Prediction: 1-0 win,  goal by Barrios.  The Rapids are a better team than San Jose, on both offense and defense.  The big equalizer though is missing Acosta and Kaye making our midfield notably weaker.  Despite that I think the Rapids can get the edge on the Earthquakes with their depth and pull out 3 points, but I wouldn't be shocked by a draw.

Cole Bassett Turns Down Benfica Move

Late yesterday news broke that at the close of the European window (for most European leagues at least) yesterday Cole Bassett turned down a transfer to Portuguese side Benfica.  As more details came out it turns down the offer was really for their B side, playing in the second division, with the opportunity to work up to the first-team squad.  I decided to wait until today to write about it hoping more details would come out.  Today Burgundy Wave spoke directly with Cole about the offer and his decision.  The article covers the details well enough that I'm not going to be able to do much better than that, so you should just go read it at BW.

In the end this sounds like the right move for Cole, and it makes sense to me, so who am I to argue?