Best Season Ever Ends With Thud

Well, that sucked.  A glorious day, a wonderful tailgate, a great crowd, and a 1-0 last minute loss.  This is not how we envisioned our greatest season ever ending.  In the end Portland made the play we couldn't.  There will be a lot of discussion and some blame thrown around over the next 3 months but in the end I don't think there's any one person or one decision that cost us the game.  Sometimes you just get beat and this was one of those days.  It sucks, especially when you see we would be hosting 7th seeded FSL had we won, but the good news is that we're set up to roll into next season.

Random Musings:

• Maybe its my long history of being a fan of bad Seattle sports teams (Seahawks, Mariners, Sonics, Huskies, Kraken, never Sounders) but I'm at the point in sports where I've learned to never let the highs get you too high or the lows get you too low.  The only real exceptions to that are finals and rivalry games.  Washington losing the Apple Cup this weekend would have hurt more than the Rapids loss most years, except the Huskies have been so bad this year it didn't surprise me.  There's always next year.
• Along those lines we a 80 days (+/- a day) from our CCL first round road leg.  90 days from our opening MLS match of 2022.  So not a whole lot of time to dwell on this one compared to many offseasons.
• So the one moment a lot of Rapids fans are focusing on is the non-PK call in the 32nd minute.  I took a look at my recording from FOX and IMO that's a 50/50 call.  Some refs are going to call it, some aren't.  If it had been called against us we would have called it a soft penalty.  I don't think Unkel got it wrong and there's certainly no grounds for VAR to overturn it.
• The other complaint is that Fraser screwed up by leaving our top two scorers on the bench.  Barrios, of course, has been starting on the bench most of the last two months of the season.  In place our third-best scorer, and the one with the hot foot, Badji started.  Hard to fault a coach for riding with the hot foot.  In Lewis' place was Bassett, who had two less goals than Lewis.  Of course Lewis got those two goals in the final game of the season (and Cole got one as well) so its not like Lewis was clearly a better choice than Bassett.  In my projected lineup I had Galvan and Barrios starting in those two spots.  And of course, the only players to get shots on target were Badji and Bassett.
• We really suffered from not taking advantage of our first half dominance.  The more we let Portland hang around the more they grew into the game, and the flatter we went.  That's the one place I felt like Fraser failed is not seeing us losing momentum in the second half and changing things up earlier.  Subs should have been in the 60th minute and not the 70th.
• The last shot we got off was in the 72nd minute (a miss by Bassett).  At that point our expected goals were about double Portland's (1.2 to 0.6).  After that Portland had two good shots that jumped the expected goals to 2.1 (and obviously, one went in).  So not only did the subs come late, they essentially added no offense.  Despite putting in our two best scorers.
• The goal was all kinds of bad luck.  First the corner that it came from was unnecessary.  Yarbrough was playing it safe and made sure to get a hand on a high shot/cross but on replay that ball was going to be off target and out of play without him touching it.  Then the corner deflects off of Lewis(?) right into a scrum of Rosenberry, Trusty, and a couple of Timbers.  Two lucky deflections put the ball right where it can be knocked home.  The defense was good enough, until it wasn't.
• In the end our best players were on the field when it mattered, Portland was down their best player (Blanco) and the Timbers made the play when they needed to.  Hat-tip to them, now go out and kick FSL up and down the pitch.
• Huge shout out to the fans and the Front Office.  I think its fair to say every Rapids fan raised an eyebrow when we heard that we were hosting on Thanksgiving.  A team that has historically struggled with attendance hosting on a major holiday?  But everyone came through in a big way, the stands were (nearly) full and loud.
• An additional round of applause to the C38 tailgate crew.  Back when I was legitimately part of the tailgate organizers we pulled off some big tailgates (Snow Clasico!) but nothing like this.  A full Thanksgiving dinner for what was probably closer to 1000 people.  An epic level of tailgating that may never be topped.

Now that the season is done we'll go through our normal post-season coverage.  Who should stay, who should go.  Re-visting my predictions.  And of course we have an expansion draft as well.  Plus the schedule should come out before Christmas and we'll have the CCL draw on Dec. 15th.  I expect things to calm down over the holidays before a quick ramp-up to the season in January and February.

Man of the Match: Danny Wilson.  If there was any single highlight for the Rapids it was Wilson clearing a shot off the line.  Overall though everyone played pretty equally.

Thanksgiving Futbol

Happy Thanksgiving!  Hopefully if you're not spending it with me and 17,000 other members of our Rapids family you're spending it with your family, in whatever shape that takes.  And hopefully they have FOX because our Burgundy Boys are taking on the timbers at 2:30 MT.  This is what the Rapids have always wanted.  #1 seed, home-field advantage, and a shot at MLS Cup.  Time to take advantage of what we earned in the regular season.

No injuries, no discipline, and no international absences.  Everyone on the roster (that wasn't loaned out) is available tomorrow.  We've had 18 days off so everyone is fully rested.  Fraser can choose whatever lineup he wants.

I expect us to us the same 5-4-1/5-2-3 we used against Portland in both our regular season games.  The key to breaking down Portland's defense is their wingbacks.  Galvan was successful against Portland in the last match at home so that's why I see him starting on the left with Barrios using his speed on the right.  Out striker could be any one of Rubio, Lewis, or Badji but I think Diego gets the nod.  Acosta gets the left wing-back spot so Kaye and Price can be in the center.  I expect Rosenberry, as possibly our most reliable defender, to start on the right but it could be Acosta on the right and Esteves on the left (how we lined up in the home game against Portland).  And of course the big 3 along the back line with Will behind them.  Given that the big threat from Portland is Blanco, I'd be half tempted to tell Trusty "you've got one job when the ball is in our half, find Blanco and stick to him like glue".  But that's why I'm writing this and Robin is coaching.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Barrios and Bassett.  Really the key in this game is not to give up an early goal, or really go behind at all.  As long as Portland has to find a goal the game favors us.  They're on short rest and at altitude.  If they get ahead they're going to go into a shell and park the bus, something we've struggled to break this season.  I think we get a first-half goal and then with Portland chasing in the second and getting tired we double the lead.  They get one back to push us the full 90  but we win and wait to see if we host SKC or FSL for a spot in MLS Cup.

Colorado vs. Portland - Regular Season Matchups

With Portland coming for Thanksgiving we should look back at how we did against them this season.  Both games took place late in the year, one in mid-September and one in late-October.

In our mid-September game we travelled to Portland midweek in-between home games against the Galaxy and Vancouver.  This was during our run of 4 draws in September that we thought had cost us a shot at the 1 seed (it did probably cost us a shot at the Shield).  We lined up in the 5-4-1/5-2-3 formation we used most of the last half of the season.  Lewis played forward with Bassett and Shinyashiki on the outside, Kaye and Price in midfield, Rosneberry and Galvan at wingbacks, and the big 3 in the center.  This was the game that Portland's Tuiloma got a red card right before half.  He had a yellow card in the 33rd minute, then had a red card and yellow card tackle within 5 seconds in the 42nd minute.

At that point the Rapids were feeling fairly confident about their chances and they turned that into a goal by Lewis in the 63rd, only for Portland to level it in the 67th.  Then Barrios hit what we all thought was the game winner in the 87th.  This was his chip from an insane angle along the end line that somehow went in.  Unfortunately Blanco came right back down the field and tied it four minutes later, absolutely stealing a point from the Rapids.  As you would expect with a man advantage for a full half Colorado dominated every statistical category, except both teams had an Expected Goals of 1.9, and it finished 2-2.  This was that period of the season where we were taking a ton of low percentage shots to end up with a decent xGoals.

In the second match in Colorado things went much more in our favor.  This was a weekend game between Wednesday games where we drew Seattle and our one late loss in our trip to New England.  One significant change, other than location, was that Blanco was injured for this match.  The Rapids had 3 lineup changes from the game in Portland, with Rubio starting up front and Badji starting for Shinyashiki.  Rosenberry was injured so Acosta started in his place.  Same 5-4-1/5-2-3 formation.  The stats showed this game as fairly even the Timbers never felt like they were in the match. All but one shot they put on net had less than a 5% Expected goals (and the one above 5% was 5.52%).  They never really threatened.

On the Rapids side this was one of Galvan's best games, who set up both Rapids goals.  Badji was really getting rolling into the hot streak he finished the season on, and Rubio got on the scoreboard as well.  The Expected Goals were much more in our favor, 1.9 to 0.3 and sure enough, we won by 2.  With the win Colorado officially clinched a playoff spot and was 1 point away from clinching a home playoff match.

What we see from these two games is that Blanco is the key to the Timbers attack.  He scored twice in their playoff win over Minnesota on Sunday.  The good news is that at 33 years old he played 88 minutes on Sunday and is now coming to altitude 4 days later.  But we're going to have to lock him down to succeed on Thursday.  On the attack we obviously match up well, scoring 2 goals in both matches.  Keep doing what we're doing on that end and concentrate on keeping Portland off the board.

Season Openers Announced!

So I wasn't expecting this until after the playoffs or maybe MLS Cup week, but the league announced the home openers for the 2022 season today.  This is a good indication that we'll get the full schedule no later than shortly after MLS Cup.  Certainly before everyone goes into holiday mode in a month.

The Rapids will start where they ended the regular season, facing LAFC.  In this case we'll be on the road.  We'll then be at home in the second week against Atlanta.  And of course, as we discussed yesterday, they will host a CCL game in the week leading up to the opener.  So the schedule as we know it so far:

Feb 15th-17th - Concacaf Champions League, Away leg

Feb 22nd-24th - Concacaf Champions League Home leg

Sat. Feb 26th, 1:30pm MT - @LAFC

Sat. March 5th, 4pm MT - Atlanta United

Upcoming Opponents Decided

This weekend our upcoming opponent for Thursday's playoff match and for the Concacaf Champions League in February were partially decided.

Frist, the big one, we'll play Portland on Thursday in the conference semifinals.  So far this season we've beaten them 2-0 at home and drawn them 2-2 in Portland.  Later this week we'll go into more detail about those two matches and what to expect on Thursday.

Concacaf also announced the details of the Concacaf Champions League.  The draw will take place on December 15th but we know 15 of the 16 teams in the competition already.  The teams are ranked by how the teams in those slots have done in past editions of the CCL, not how the qualified teams have done in past editions.  For example, the Supporters Shield winner always gets the USA2 slot, and based on how past Shield winners have done the Revs are ranked 5th of the 16th teams.  The other conference winner always gets the USA3 slot, and based how they've done over the years the Rapids have the best ranking of American teams in 4th.  Given that the rankings for 2022 are already known as well as 15 of the 16 teams in the slots:

Cruz Azul - Mexico

Leon - Mexico

UNAM (Pumas) - Mexico

Colorado Rapids - USA

New England Revolution - USA

Montreal - Canada

MLS Cup winner* - USA

Seattle Sounders - USA

***********

Santos Laguna - Mexico

Santos de Guapiles - Costa Rica

Motagua - Honduras

Saprissa - Costa Rica

Cavaly - Haiti/Concacaf League

Guastatoya - Guatemala/Concacaf League

Comunicaciones - Guatemala/Concacaf League

Forge FC - Canada/Concacaf League

The last 4 spots are awarded to the semi-finalists of the Concacaf league, played among qualifiers from the smaller leagues in the region.  The competition is in the semi-final stage so we know the 4 teams who will qualify but the order of the two Guatemalan teams may change based on who wins the semi-final between them.

* - If the MLS Cup winner is one of New England, Colorado, or Seattle, the highest team in the Shield standings who hasn't yet qualified for the CCL will get the spot.  This year that would be Sporting KC.

Once the 16 teams are ranked they're split into the top 8 and the bottom 8, and one from each side of the split are drawn against each other.  So you can see that which of the spots the Guatemalan team fills or if one of the MLS teams moves into the MLS Cup spot doesn't really matter as they stay in the same pot.

The rules of the draw are that teams from the same federation can't be drawn against each other (there's an exception to that but it won't apply this year).  So Montreal can't draw Forge FC and Santos Laguna can't draw Cruz Azul, Leon, or Pumas (which means they will draw a MLS team).

So the possible Rapids opponents in the first round are any of the bottom 8 teams in that list up there.  The first round will take place as a home and home series on Feb. 15th-17th and Feb. 22nd-24th.  As the higher ranked team the Rapids will host the second leg on Feb. 22nd-24th.

As part of the draw on Dec. 15th the teams will be placed into a traditional 16 team bracket, like the Sweet Sixteen, and they'll know what their path to the final is.  In the quarter-finals the winners of series 1, 3, 5, and 7 in that bracket will host the second legs of the home-and-home series (generally considered the better option).  Those will be played March 8-10th and March 15th-17th.  For the semis and final the host of the second leg will be determined by the records of the teams involved in the earlier rounds, with the team with the better record getting the second leg.  The semis will be played April 5th-7th and April 12th-14th, and the finals will be April 26th-28th and May 3rd-5th.

Help One Of Our Own

I was going to post about the CONCACAF CL format announcement and some other odds and ends tonight, but something more important has come up.

If you've been a fan of the Rapids for a while you know Kortne Ford's story, and specifically how his mom has battled breast cancer and multiple times has been told she has 3-6 months to live only to still be with us years later.  Sadly though, the cancer has finally won.  The decision has been made to end treatment and focus on her quality of life for the time she has left.  As part of that she needs hydration treatments to avoid malnourishment and her insurance doesn't cover it (the medical finance system in this country is a whole separate blog on it own).

Kort has started a GoFundMe to raise the necessary amount for these treatments.  As you would expect the Rapids community has blasted through the initial goal in 6 hours but I'm sure they could use additional help.  If you can help, even if its just retweeting/posting Kort's tweet somewhere for visibility, please do so.  Kort and Mamma Ford are part of the Rapids family, No Fan Alone applies here as much as it does in the stadium.

Rapids Win The West , Play On Thanksgiving!

What a night!  The Rapids came out and slammed the door on LAFC's playoff hopes, then got help from Vancouver and (blech!) FSL to win the West!  They capped that off by announcing tonight that they will host MLS's first ever Thanksgiving Day playoff game against the winner of the Portland-Minnesota matchup.  Oh, and with the 3 points they set a new team record for points, clinched a Champions League spot, and won their 17th game, their most ever in the post-Shootout era.  Lots to cover today so let's get started.

• The Rapids absorbed pressure for the first 15 minutes, then struck hard.  A goal in the 18th forced Bradley to make a quick change in his formation, pulling a defender and putting Vela, returning from injury, into the game in the 30th minute.  The move didn't pay off.
• 2 minutes after LAFC's move, Warner(?!) made it 2-0 and the Rapids were off to the races.  It came off a corner and because the LAFC keeper palmed it away Captain Jack didn't get an official assist, but good work from him again.
• We were feeling pretty good at half, especially when Vancouver came back to score quickly after going down 1-0 to Seattle.
• A quick strike after halftime pretty much put LAFC out of the game.  They tried to make it interesting with closing it to 2 goals twice but never got closer.
• Though there was a bit of nervous tension in the stadium after they made it 4-2.  There's enough Rapids history that long-term fans couldn't feel fully comfortable.
• Badji has played himself into a contract next year with 4 goals in 5 games and 5 goals overall.  He got the the final regular season goal in this one.
• While the Rapids did give up two, the first was while the team was a bit confused.  After Lewis scored his second he was off the field with a bit of a knock.  He seemed to think he had been subbed out, or at least the referee was making him walk around the field to come back in.  The Rapids were confused and racing to get a sub on and while playing down a man LAFC scored.
• Once we got to the 80th minute I can't really tell you what happened in the game as I was watching the scores on my phone.  The Rapids finished first despite kicking off for the second half last (least amount of stoppage time) and there was a lot of cell phone data usage in the stadium as we waited (including the players on the field huddled around phones).
• Then, we celebrated.  Colorado has never won the West before now and I love that we did it at home with a fairly full stadium.  The players were already set to make a lap to acknowledge the fans at the end of the season but there was a lot more energy behind it as Western champions.  Padraig Smith and Wayne Brandt came over and hopped into the C38 section, it was a party.

Ok, moving ahead from the game itself to some of the other happenings:

• With the other results in the West all 6 Texas and California teams missed the playoffs.
• This does mean that FSL made the playoffs, sadly.  But in doing so they gave us the West so win either way.
• The playoffs this year are a bracket similar to March Madness.  They don't reseed after every round.  So we know that after the bye through the first round we will play the winner of Portland-Minnesota (Portland hosts).  That game takes place on Sunday Nov. 21.
• Tonight the league announced the schedule for the first round and the games the Revs and Rapids will host in the second round, and the Rapids will play on Thanksgiving Day at 2:30.
• Yeah, for a lot of people this probably sucks, but I like it.  Its a weird one-off that we're never going to experience again.  C38 is already planning a Thanksgiving-themed tailgate and my wife is fine with me going to the game (in exchange she's not going to make a full turkey dinner).  I'm looking forward to it.
• Should we win we are likely to host the conference final on Sat. Dec 4th.  The other conference final is on Sunday the 5th, but with New England not playing until the 30th I expect the Eastern Conference final to be on Sunday to give the winner of that match as much rest as possible.
• MLS Cup would be on Saturday Dec. 11th, should we make it that far.  If we do and we play anyone other than New England the Rapids would host.  If its New England we'd be travelling to Boston.

And one last thing, the Concacaf Champions League:

• With the result we clinched the "best" spot in the CCL we could.  Long story short, the spots in the CCL are ranked based on how the teams who had them in the past years performed.  The USA 3 spot, which is what we got by winning the West, is ranked the highest because of past performance.
• That puts us in Pot A, and we'll be drawn for a home-in-home series against one of the teams in Pot B.  We know 7 of the 8 teams in Pot B already.
• The series will be played in Feb./Mar. next year, exact dates have not yet been announced.
• Our possible opponents are Santos Laguna (Mexico), Santos (Costa Rica), Motagua (Honduras), Saprissa (Costa Rica), Cavaly (Haiti), CD Guastaoya (Guatemala), of Comunicaciones (Guatemala).
• The 8th possible opponent is Forge FC (Canada).  However they are also in the Canadian Championship final against Montreal, and the winner gets the "better" Canadian slot in Pot A.  So if Forge wins they would move up and I'm not sure who would fill the slot they're currently in, which comes from being a semifinalist in the CONCACAF league, which is a tournament among the smaller CONCACAF nations where the 4 semifinalists qualify for the Champions League.

So, that enough?  :D  Enjoy it Rapids fans, its been a long time coming!

Man of the Match: Jonathan Lewis.  2 goals.  Easy call.

WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS!!!!

Full game recap tomorrow night but for tonight we celebrate the team's first ever Western Conference Championship!  That also comes with a spot in next year's Concacaf Champions League.  Possible conference semifinal playoff dates for our first match would be Thanksgiving Day (the 25th), Sunday the 28th, or Tuesday the 30th.

First Place On The Line On Decision Day

For only the second time in their history the Rapids go into Decision Day with a shot at winning the West (2016 was the other).  This time the task is a little harder as not only do they need a win, but they need 2 other results (name Seattle and SKC not winning).  to break down the possibilities:

• Rapids lose - Rapids finish 3rd
• Rapids draw - Rapids finish 3rd unless SKC loses to FSL, then Rapids finish 2nd, clinch CCL spot
• Rapids win - 
• And Seattle and SKC win - Rapids finish 3rd
• One of Seattle and SKC win - Rapids finish 2nd, clinch CCL spot
• Neither Seattle or SKC win - Rapids win the West, clinch CCL spot

All games kickoff at the same time.   Seattle is in Vancouver while SKC is hosting FSL.

Of course what happens in those games only matters if Colorado takes care of business against LAFC tomorrow.  LAFC needs a win and a lot of help to make the playoffs (as does FSL, while Vancouver just needs a draw to clinch a playoff spot) so they're going to play desperate.  Kickoff tomorrow is scheduled for 4pm but will really be 4:25 as with all games kicking off simultaneously the nationally televised game will have 20 minutes of pregame before the games start.  The Rapids are yet again still only on Altitude.

Injury Report:

QUESTIONABLE: D Keegan Rosenberry

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM FINE: D Lalas Abubakar, M Collen Warner

If Abubakar or Warner were to get a yellow tomorrow they would only get fined as if they had reached a suspension, no actual suspension carries over into the playoffs or to game one of 2022.  Any red card assessed tomorrow would result in suspension for the first playoff game.

This isn't exactly the formation I expect but it was best the app could do.  We could see Beitashour instead of Esteves, or we could see Acosta play wing back again.  Regardless, there's no tomorrow and there's been a week of rest.  There's no reason not to start our best XI (other than Rosenberry) as we're guaranteed at least 2 weeks off after this and possibly more.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Badji and Barrios.  The Rapids will not make the fans sweat on this one, getting a multi-goal lead and then fending off LAFC's desperate attacks.  However things won't go quite as well as hoped in the other matches.  Vancouver gets the draw we're hoping for, allowing us to jump Seattle for 2nd, but KC puts a beating on FSL to win the West on the total wins tiebreaker over Colorado 18-17.

All To Play For On Sunday

Well we got the results we needed to make Sunday VERY interesting.  Seattle and the Galaxy tied on Monday and Austin is just wrapping up a beat down of SKC.  That leaves the standings as:

Seattle: 59 points

SKC: 58 points

Colorado: 58 points

all with just the final game on Decision Day to play.  All the games kickoff at the same time of 4pm MT on Sunday.

Colorado hosts LAFC, who is barely hanging on to a playoff chance

SKC hosts FSL, who depending on what happens in the game currently going on may be fighting for their life

Seattle goes to Vancouver, who's chances will also be greatly affected by FSL's result tonight

The scenarios are this:

Colorado wins the West;

With a win AND Seattle AND SKC drawing or losing

Colorado finishes 2nd:

With a win AND Seattle OR SKC drawing or losing

OR

With a draw AND SKC losing

Its going to be a crazy day...

Rapids Clinch Top 3 Finish, tie Best Season Ever

So I didn't watch this game, because I was at Fan EXPO Denver.  I did watch the 15 minute recap MLS posted to its website, but about the point where Badji scored I got bored and started reading The Athletic's article about Ryan Reynold's and Rob McElhenney's trip to Wrexham to see the team they bought, Wrexham FC.

As an aside, even though I'm a bit of a fan of Wrexham's rival Chester, I find that story really fun to follow.  The article is worth reading if you have a subscription.  Non-league football is more enjoyable to follow than Champions League football.  Yeah, I said it.

Back to the Rapids, the game was just dull.  Even the 15-minute recap struggled to find enough highlights to fill the time.  The important thing though is the Rapids got the 3 points.  instead of reviewing a dull game I didn't watch we'll just talk about what the result means.

• With the win we're guaranteed to finish in the top 3 of the West and the top 4 overall
• The 3 points tied the 2016 team for the most points in team history.  The Rapids go for a new record against LAFC on Sunday.
• Currently Colorado is in a tie with KC and Seattle for the top spot, but both teams have a game in hand.  The Rapids also lose all possible tie-breaking scenarios with those teams.
• What that means, in short, is that a win by either KC or Seattle in their final 2 games means we can't pass them regardless of our result by LAFC.  A win by both of them means we're locked into 3rd.
• Seattle kicks off against the Galaxy in about 15 minutes, then goes to Vancouver on Decision Day.  KC goes to Austin on Wednesday and hosts FSL on Sunday.
• If one of the teams doesn't win either game, we pass them with a win over LAFC.  If they lose both games we pass them with a draw.
• If we can pass one of them we would clinch a Concacaf Champions League spot.  If we don't pass either one of them, but if one of them or New England wins MLS Cup we get the extra CCL spot (we would also qualify if we won MLS Cup, obviously).
• Badji's goal gives him 4 on the season, That puts him into a 3-way tie for 4th on the team with Basset and Shinyashiki.  Both of them and the 3 ahead of Badji (Rubio, Lewis, and Barrios who leads with 8) have played a minimum of about 1250 minutes..  Badji has played 307.
• Barrios has a 3 goal lead over Lewis and Rubio for the Golden Boot, so that's probably locked down.  Barrios and Rubio are tied for second with 5 assists, but Jack Price is lapping the field with 12.  The real question is can Captain Jack get 1 more on Sunday, tying him with Barrios for the lead in goals + assists?
• Our possible first round opponent is still up in the air as Portland, Minnesota, Vancouver, the Galaxy, FSL, and LAFC are all separated by just 6 points and everyone other than Minnesota has 2 games left to play.  My money is still on us finishing 3rd and facing Minnesota or the Galaxy though.

Since I didn't watch the game I'm giving the Man of the Match to Robin Fraser, for taking us to (hopefully) our best season ever.